Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the strong stock market, the recovery of risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September exceeds 95%, and the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. - The price of Treasury bond futures fluctuates. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract on rallies. For arbitrage, pay attention to the decline of the basis of TF2509. For hedging, as there is medium - term adjustment pressure, short - side investors can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and 0.00% year - on - year change; monthly PPI has a - 0.20% month - on - month and - 3.60% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 431.26 trillion yuan, with a 1.04 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and 0.24% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, up 0.50% from the previous period with a 6.02% growth rate; manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, down 0.40% from the previous period with a - 0.80% growth rate [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.78, down 0.28 with a - 0.29% change; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1817, down 0.009 with a - 0.13% change; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, up 0.00 with a 0.07% change; DR007 is 1.45, up 0.01 with a 0.54% change; R007 is 1.56, down 0.12 with a - 7.38% change; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.53, down 0.01 with a - 0.65% change; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, down 0.01 with a - 0.65% change [10]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation of funds, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), long - short position ratio (top 20), spread between government - issued bonds and Treasury bonds, and Treasury bond issuance of Treasury bond futures main contracts [13][16][18]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Multiple charts are provided to show the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local government bond issuance [32][28]. 4. Spread Overview - Multiple charts are provided to show the inter - term spread trend of Treasury bond futures, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [31][38]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the TS main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TS main contract, and the basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract in the past three years [41][43][52]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the TF main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TF main contract, and the basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract in the past three years [50][54][51]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the T main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the T main contract, and the basis and net basis trends of the T main contract in the past three years [58][60][61]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the TL main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TL main contract, and the basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract in the past three years [66][69][72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, with an overall view of oscillation due to the monetary policy leaning towards structural easing [1]. - For the main bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the overall reference view is to oscillate. In the short term, bond futures will mainly be in an oscillatory consolidation state [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillate; medium - term: oscillate; intraday: oscillate with a slight upward bias; overall view: oscillate. The core logic is that the monetary policy leans towards structural easing [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, intraday view: oscillate with a slight upward bias; medium - term view: oscillate; reference view: oscillate. The core logic is that bond futures oscillated and closed slightly higher the previous day. As market interest rates are close to policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited, providing strong support at the bottom of bond futures. In the long - term, the monetary policy is supportive, and the possibility of interest rate hikes is low, so the long - term upward logic of bonds is solid. In the short term, the macro - economy showed strong resilience in the first half of the year, and external risk factors have temporarily eased, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low. The central bank and the Ministry of Finance jointly introduced two loan interest subsidy policies, which means the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has greatly decreased [5].

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report 2025/8/12 [1] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin [3] - Futures从业资格号: F30825507 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On August 12, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened collectively, with the yields of 1Y - 7Y maturities rising by about 0.10 - 0.60bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y rising by about 1bp to 1.72% and 1.97% respectively. Treasury bond futures also weakened collectively, with the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL falling by 0.02%, 0.01%, 0.04%, and 0.31% respectively. The central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded slightly to around 1.47% [2]. - Domestically, the effect of policies to expand domestic demand has emerged. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of core CPI continued to rise, and the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed. The PMIs of the manufacturing and non - manufacturing sectors declined comprehensively in July, with the marginal decline of supply and demand. The composite PMI declined slightly but remained above the boom - bust line, indicating that overall production and business activities remained stable. In terms of trade, the export growth rate continued to rise in July, showing the resilience of foreign trade [2]. - Overseas, the suspension period of Sino - US tariffs was extended by another 90 days. The US labor market showed signs of weakness. The non - farm payrolls in July were lower than expected, and the previous value was significantly revised down. The non - farm employment numbers from May to June were revised down by 258,000, and the unemployment rate rose slightly, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September [2]. - In terms of strategy, the equity market has been strong recently, with the stock index approaching the high since last October, triggering concentrated selling of bonds by trading accounts. The selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds is significant, and the spread between the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds has continued to widen, highlighting a bear - steepening curve. Currently, the bond market is still anchored to equity fluctuations. Under the unchanged dominance of risk preference, the linkage between stock and bond fluctuations may further strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Summary by Category Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: On August 12, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.420 (-0.04%), 105.715 (0%), 102.338 (-0.02%), and 118.140 (-0.31%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 76,952 (+4,763), 48,505 (+1,665), 34,415 (+25), and 123,182 (+7,595) respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 were -0.40 (+0.03), -0.11 (-0.01), 0.01 (-0.04), and 0.04 (+0.00) respectively. Other spreads such as T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, etc. also changed [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 10,169, 3,491, 1,557, and 5,060 respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL changed by +2,430, -771, -1,333, and +2,066 respectively [2]. Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, etc. declined on August 12 [2]. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds increased by 0.50bp, 1.50bp, 3.50bp, 2.95bp, and 2.65bp respectively [2]. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The rates of silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day were 1.4423% (+14.23bp), 1.4800% (+3.00bp), and 1.4860% (-1.40bp) respectively. The Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates were 1.3150% (0.00bp), 1.4330% (+0.10bp), and 1.4560% (+0.10bp) respectively [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. Open Market Operations - On August 12, the issuance scale of open - market reverse repurchase was 114.6 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 160.7 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days, with a net withdrawal of 46.1 billion yuan [2]. Policy News - The nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Loan Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities". Loans that meet certain conditions can enjoy the interest - subsidy policy. The interest - subsidy period does not exceed 1 year, with an annual subsidy ratio of 1 percentage point. The central and provincial finances will bear 90% and 10% of the subsidy funds respectively [2]. Key Data to Watch - August 12, 20:30, US July unadjusted CPI annual rate; August 14, 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ended August 9 (in ten thousand people) [3]

1. Global Asset Market Performance 1.1 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On August 8, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.284%, 4.600%, 3.348% respectively. The latest changes were 0.033, 0.054, 0.053; weekly changes were 0.066, 0.074, 0.002; monthly changes were - 0.127, - 0.021, - 0.064; and annual changes were 0.252, 0.631, 0.337 [3]. 1.2 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - As of August 8, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany were 3.690, 3.896, 1.952 respectively. The latest changes were - 0.030, 0.023, 0.036; weekly changes were - 0.250, 0.107, 0.027; monthly changes were - 0.190, 0.045, 0.056; and annual changes were - 0.670, 0.090, - 0.573 [3]. 1.3 Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On August 8, 2025, the dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.435, with a latest change of 0.18%, a weekly change of - 1.94%, a monthly change of - 2.25%, and an annual change of - 3.82%. Similar data were provided for other currencies like the Russian ruble, South African rand, etc. [3]. 1.4 Stock Indices of Major Economies - On August 8, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq were 6389.450, 44175.610, 21450.020 respectively. The latest changes were 0.78%, 0.47%, 0.98%; weekly changes were 2.43%, 1.35%, 3.87%; monthly changes were 2.07%, - 0.44%, 4.20%; and annual changes were 15.70%, 8.16%, 21.88% [3]. 1.5 Credit Bond Indices - The latest changes of the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - area investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were - 0.24%, - 0.15%, etc.; weekly changes were - 0.12%, 0.08%, etc.; monthly changes were 1.45%, 0.45%, etc.; and annual changes were 5.06%, 4.83%, etc. [3][4] 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 2.1 Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3635.13, 4104.97, 2789.17 respectively. The corresponding percentage changes were - 0.12%, - 0.24%, - 0.33% [5]. 2.2 Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.31, 11.47, 30.52 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.02, - 0.02, - 0.06 [5]. 2.3 Risk Premium - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of the S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.59 and 2.68 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.06 and - 0.03 [5]. 2.4 Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, and SMEs were - 731.15, - 338.22, etc., and the 5 - day average values were - 266.18, - 179.38, etc. [5]. 2.5 Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 17102.27, 3085.08, 828.05 respectively, with环比 changes of - 1152.63, - 496.00, - 114.17 [5]. 2.6 Main Contract Basis and Spread - The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 21.77, - 3.77, - 96.50 respectively, with spreads of - 0.53%, - 0.14%, - 1.53% [5] 3. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.640, 105.840, 108.535, 105.895 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.06%, 0.05%, 0.06%, 0.06% [6]. - The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3413%, 1.4538%, 1.5544% respectively, with daily changes of - 14.00, - 3.00, - 1.00 [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market saw a slight increase on August 8, with the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) rising by 0.13% and the 30-year government bond futures contract (TL2509) increasing by 0.14% [1] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 122 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40% [1] - The yields on major government bonds decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.7 basis points to 1.69% and the 30-year government bond yield down by 0.45 basis points to 1.914% [1] Group 2: Bond Market Trends - In the first half of the year, the bond market experienced adjustments, with a decline in small and medium-sized banks' enthusiasm for bond investments, particularly in April and May [2] - However, in July, the enthusiasm for bond trading among small and medium-sized banks rebounded, with total trading volume exceeding 17.24 trillion yuan, marking a new monthly high since early 2025 [2] - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests that small banks will continue to increase their bond holdings, acting as stabilizers in the bond market [2] Group 3: Investment Products - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF (511090) is the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes for investors [3] - This product serves as a high-elasticity cash management tool and duration adjustment tool, making it attractive for investors in both short-term and long-term scenarios [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on TL2509 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is that there is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the main Treasury bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The main reason is that the market interest rate is close to the policy rate, and the moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged, causing the market interest rate to decline since August and the Treasury bond futures to rebound after hitting the bottom. However, the obvious stock - bond seesaw effect and the rapid rise in the stock market's risk appetite suppress the bond market demand and restrict the rebound space of Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: oscillation with a slight upward bias; overall view: oscillation. Core logic: Expectation of loose monetary policy exists, but short - term interest rate cut probability is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: oscillation with a slight upward bias; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillation. Core logic: Treasury bond futures showed a trend of rising and then falling yesterday, with narrow - range oscillation. Market interest rates have declined since August due to the moderately loose monetary policy. However, the stock - bond seesaw effect restricts the rebound space of Treasury bond futures. Short - term Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].

规模方面，30年国债ETF博时最新规模达149.72亿元。 资金流入方面，30年国债ETF博时最新资金净流出2.35亿元。拉长时间看，近5个交易日内有3日资金净流入，合计"吸金"4.84亿元，日均净流入达9688.76万 元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。30年国债ETF博时前一交易日融资净买额达2228.31万元，最新融资余额达1.11亿元。 截至8月4日，30年国债ETF博时近1年净值上涨9.39%，指数债券型基金排名7/416，居于前1.68%。从收益能力看，截至2025年8月4日，30年国债ETF博时自 成立以来，最高单月回报为5.35%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为10.58%，涨跌月数比为10/6，上涨月份平均收益率为2.09%，月盈利百分比为 62.50%，月盈利概率为68.15%，历史持有1年盈利概率为100.00%。截至2025年8月4日，30年国债ETF博时近1年超越基准年化收益为0.05%。 回撤方面，截至2025年8月4日，30年国债ETF博时成立以来最大回撤6.89%，相对基准回撤1.28%。 截至2025年8月5日 14:02，30年国债ETF博时(511130)上涨0. ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Major Asset Morning Report" released by the macro team of the research center of Heyian Futures on August 1, 2025, presenting the performance of global asset markets [1]. Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Yields**: Yields of major economies showed different changes on July 31, 2025. For example, the US was at 4.376% with a latest change of 0.004%, a one - week change of - 0.022%, a one - month change of 0.028%, and a one - year change of 0.124%. Japan was at 3.958% with a latest change of 0.015%, a one - week change of 0.041%, a one - month change of 0.075%, and a one - year change of - 0.534% [2]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields**: The US 2 - year Treasury yield on July 31, 2025, was 3.860% with a latest change of - 0.050%, a one - week change of 0.030%, a one - month change of - 0.090%, and a one - year change of - 0.630%. Japan was at 0.817% with a latest change of - 0.006%, a one - week change of - 0.027%, a one - month change of 0.074%, and a one - year change of 0.471% [2]. Exchange Rates - **USD against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On July 31, 2025, the exchange rate of USD against the Brazilian real was 5.600 with a latest change of 0.52%, a one - week change of 1.45%, a one - month change of 3.54%, and a one - year change of 0.26%. Against the South African rand, it was 18.218 with a latest change of 1.22%, a one - week change of 3.33%, a one - month change of 4.00%, and a one - year change of - 0.94% [2]. - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB was at 7.200 on July 31, 2025, with a latest change of 0.04%, a one - week change of 0.63%, a one - month change of 0.41%, and a one - year change of - 1.03%. The offshore RMB was at 7.209 with a latest change of - 0.03%, a one - week change of 0.78%, a one - month change of 0.54%, and a one - year change of - 1.10% [2]. Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On July 31, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6339.390 with a latest change of - 0.37%, a one - week change of - 0.38%, a one - month change of 0.96%, and a one - year change of 14.11%. The German DAX was at 24065.470 with a latest change of - 0.81%, a one - week change of - 0.95%, a one - month change of 0.55%, and a one - year change of 29.68% [2]. - **Emerging Economies' Stock Indices**: The Malaysian stock index was at 1513.250 on July 31, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.74%, a one - week change of - 1.76%, a one - month change of - 2.31%, and a one - year change of - 7.14%. The Australian stock index was at 8999.022 with a latest change of - 0.18%, a one - week change of 0.22%, a one - month change of 1.87%, and a one - year change of 9.63% [2]. Credit Bond Indices - Credit bond indices of different regions and levels showed various changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.06%, a one - week change of 0.43%, a one - month change of 0.27%, and a one - year change of 5.64% [2][3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing price of A - shares was 3573.21 with a decline of 1.18%. The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4075.59 with a decline of 1.82% [4]. Valuation - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 13.19 with a环比 change of - 0.20. The PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 26.89 with a环比 change of - 0.10 [4]. Risk Premium - The risk premium of the S&P 500 (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) was - 0.66 with a环比 change of 0.01. The risk premium of the German DAX was 2.16 with a环比 change of 0.05 [4]. Fund Flow - The latest value of the A - share fund flow was - 1635.89, and the 5 - day average was - 973.63 [4]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19360.35, with a环比 change of 917.56 [4]. Main Contract Premium/Discount - The basis of the IF contract was - 18.59, with a premium/discount rate of - 0.46% [4]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing price of the T00 Treasury futures was 108.485 with a rise of 0.16%. The closing price of the TF00 was 105.725 with a rise of 0.08% [5]. - The R001 fund rate was 1.5634% with a daily change of - 5.00 BP. The R007 was 1.5806% with a daily change of - 3.00 BP [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the domestic stock index futures market showed a continuous upward trend, with IC and IM performing stronger than IF and IH. In August, the stock index may maintain a structural market. One can focus on short - term oversold rebound opportunities catalyzed by policies, but be vigilant against fluctuations caused by economic data falling short of expectations. It is recommended to participate with a light position and closely follow the central bank's medium - term lending facility operations and real estate policy trends [5][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - In July, the domestic stock index futures market continued to strengthen. The month - on - month increases of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 4.14%, 3.27%, 6.16%, and 6.33% respectively [5]. - Last month, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures rose, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bond futures fell [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month but still above the critical point. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and business activities of Chinese enterprises remained in an expansion state [8][9][13]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of July 31, the PE, percentile, and PB of the CSI 300 Index were 13.39 times, 72.8%, and 1.41 times respectively; those of the SSE 50 Index were 11.48 times, 85.13%, and 1.27 times respectively; those of the CSI 500 Index were 30.78 times, 73.39%, and 2.06 times respectively; and those of the CSI 1000 Index were 41.3 times, 66.34%, and 2.29 times respectively [14]. 3.4 Other Data - The "total market value/GDP" quantile in historical data was 77.08%. On July 30, 2025, the "total market value/GDP" quantiles in the recent 10 - year data were 81.07% and 76.31% [25]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - In July, the stock index futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, but the upward foundation was still unstable. The market contradiction lies in the game between policy expectations and fundamental reality. In August, the stock index may maintain a structural market. One can focus on short - term opportunities but be cautious about risks [26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of various government bond futures contracts, indicating a positive trend in their prices [1] - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract increased by 0.01% [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract rose by 0.08% [1] - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract saw an increase of 0.17% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract experienced the highest rise at 0.57% [1]