Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan reports that multiple regions express concerns over rising sales prices in the U.S. leading to decreased demand and a slowdown in the global economy [1] Group 1 - Companies are worried about the impact of rising sales prices in the U.S. on their demand [1] - There is a general concern regarding the slowdown of the global economy affecting business operations [1]

Group 1: Legislative Overview - The "Great Beauty Act" was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives with a narrow margin of 218 votes in favor and 214 against, and was signed into law by Trump on July 4, 2025[6] - The act is expected to increase the deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next ten years, with tax cuts of about $4.5 trillion and spending cuts of around $1.4 trillion[12][13] Group 2: Market Impact - The market impact of the "Great Beauty Act" is expected to be limited in the short term, as the bond market has already priced in the information over the past two months[6] - The upcoming debt issuance is likely to be managed through short-term bonds, which will not significantly affect long-term bond supply and demand[6][18] Group 3: Economic Projections - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) predict that the deficit rate will rise to between 6.4% and 7.1% over the next five fiscal years due to the act[29][28] - Neutral institutions expect the act to contribute an additional economic growth of between -0.1% and 1.1% over the next ten years, indicating a very mild upward impact on the economy[22][23] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The act is likely to force the market to reassess the "new normal" of the U.S. fiscal cycle, leading to a higher central pricing for long-term U.S. Treasury yields[27] - The current 10-year Treasury yield is estimated to be around 4.1%, which is above its fair value, suggesting that the yield may continue to rise in the short term[38][41]

日本央行：多个地区表示，美国关税对出口和产出的影响目前有限。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating tensions between the U.S. and South Korea regarding military funding and troop presence, highlighting Trump's demands for increased payments and the potential implications for regional security and alliances [1][3][5][7]. Group 1: Military Funding and Demands - Trump demands South Korea to increase its annual payment for U.S. military presence to $10 billion, threatening to withdraw 4,500 troops if not met [1][3]. - In 2024, South Korea agreed to pay $1.13 billion as "protection fees," but Trump rejected this agreement, insisting on higher payments [3]. - Additional tariffs of 25% on South Korean imports are set to take effect, impacting key sectors like semiconductors and automobiles unless market access is granted [3][5]. Group 2: Strategic Military Movements - The potential withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea may lead to their relocation to Guam, as part of a broader strategy to counter China in the Taiwan Strait [3][5]. - Concerns arise over Guam's military readiness, with simulations indicating a survival rate of less than 40% in the event of conflict [3]. Group 3: Regional Alliances and Reactions - The U.S. actions have strained its long-standing alliances in the Asia-Pacific region, with South Korean lawmakers discussing nuclear armament and public protests against U.S. military presence [5][7]. - Japan and the Philippines are reportedly accelerating their military capabilities, indicating a shift towards self-reliance in defense [5]. - North Korea may exploit the situation to advance its nuclear ambitions, raising fears of an arms race in the region [5][7]. Group 4: Implications for U.S. Hegemony - The article suggests that Trump's tactics reflect a desperate attempt to maintain U.S. dominance, which may ultimately backfire and weaken alliances [7]. - South Korea faces a dilemma of either continuing to pay high "protection fees" or risking U.S. military withdrawal, highlighting the precarious nature of U.S. influence in the region [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's immigration and education policies may lead to a potential loss of nearly $900 million in revenue for U.S. higher education institutions in the upcoming academic year, impacting not only their financial health but also the global education landscape and the international reputation of the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Impact on U.S. Higher Education - International students are a significant source of revenue for U.S. colleges, contributing to tuition income and enhancing diversity and internationalization [3][4] - The Trump administration has tightened policies for foreign students, including restrictions on entry from certain countries and stricter visa scrutiny, which has led to a decline in international student enrollment [3][4] - The reliance on international students for both revenue and academic contributions highlights the vulnerability of U.S. colleges to these policy changes [4][6] Group 2: Broader Implications - The policies reflect deeper issues within the U.S. education system, including rising costs and stagnant domestic student numbers, which have diminished the competitiveness of U.S. higher education [6][9] - The potential loss of international students could lead to a global talent drain, with students seeking education in countries like Canada, Australia, and the UK instead [6][7] - The financial loss of $900 million may be just the tip of the iceberg, indicating a larger crisis in U.S. education and a shift in global talent mobility [7][9] Group 3: Globalization vs. Nationalism - Trump's policies illustrate the growing tension between globalization and nationalism, undermining the role of education as a bridge for cultural and knowledge exchange [9][10] - The decline in international student enrollment could hinder global knowledge sharing and collaboration, negatively affecting research and innovation [9][10] - U.S. higher education institutions must reassess their strategies to maintain global competitiveness while navigating the challenges posed by nationalist policies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 947.37 tons of gold as of July 9, 2025, reflecting an increase of 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various factors including the strength of the US dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and investor sentiment regarding trade agreements [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of July 9, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust holds 947.37 tons of gold, an increase of 0.86 tons from the previous day [6]. - The report indicates a significant change in gold ETF holdings, which is crucial for understanding market trends [1][3]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On July 9, gold prices experienced a drop to a low of $3282.91 per ounce before rebounding to close at $3313.5 per ounce, marking an increase of $11.94 or 0.36% [6]. - The price fluctuations were primarily driven by a strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields, alongside optimistic investor sentiment regarding trade agreements [6]. Group 3: Market Influences - The recent strength in employment data has dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, leading to a significant unwinding of long positions in Treasury futures [6]. - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed a division among officials regarding the timing and necessity of future rate cuts, with most expecting a potential cut later in the year [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold has weakened, with the price breaking the upward channel formed since mid-February [6]. - Key support levels are identified at $3297 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and $3200, while resistance is noted at $3345 (21-day moving average) and $3375 (23.6% Fibonacci level) [6].

Core Insights - The discussion focuses on how a16z is adapting to the AI wave, reshaping venture capital models, and leveraging media influence [2][3] Group 1: a16z's Evolution in Venture Capital - a16z's first phase involved reshaping venture capital through a "product mindset," recognizing that top-tier venture capital is a high-quality product for LPs but often lacks appeal for founders [4][5] - The second phase began with the realization that the landscape has changed, with the potential for many more than just 15 companies to achieve significant revenue, necessitating a scalable approach to venture capital [6][7] - a16z's structural advantage lies in its ability to expand without sharing control, allowing for effective reorganization and rapid adaptation to market changes [8][9] Group 2: Media and Cultural Dynamics - The evolution of media from traditional to social platforms has created a new environment where controlling memes equates to controlling narratives [16][21] - The rapid cycle of information dissemination in social media requires companies to adapt quickly, akin to military strategies that emphasize speed in decision-making [15][22] - a16z aims to leverage its cultural framework to resonate with audiences and create actionable products that align with the fast-paced media landscape [15][21] Group 3: Future Directions and Challenges - The emergence of AI and cryptocurrency presents new opportunities and challenges, with a16z focusing on how these technologies can intersect and create new business models [26][27] - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining innovation and avoiding the "innovator's dilemma" as it scales, ensuring that its team remains mission-driven and proactive [32][33] - a16z's commitment to supporting founders and fostering a culture of innovation is seen as essential for long-term success in a rapidly changing environment [20][34]

Group 1 - The global energy market is experiencing constant turmoil due to rapid industry development, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating supply and demand dynamics [2] - Bloomberg Intelligence provides timely industry updates and high-quality data analysis to help interpret market changes and foresee future trends [2] Group 2 - Copper production from 17 covered companies, accounting for 45% of global supply, is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9% over the next five years, reaching a significant increase of 6-6.5% by 2026 [5] - Key factors for the anticipated production increase include the restart of First Quantum's Cobre Panama mine, recovery of Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula post-earthquake, and production increases from Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi and Escondida mines [5] Group 3 - Historical data shows that changes in U.S. tariff policies have had minimal impact on aluminum prices in both the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), with global supply and demand remaining the primary drivers [7] - For instance, during Trump's first term, a 10% tariff led to an 8-10% price drop, but prices rebounded shortly after [7] Group 4 - Glencore's coal division is undervalued compared to peers, with an estimated valuation of 2.4x EV/Ebitda, which is approximately 38% lower than the industry average [11] - If valued similarly to peers, Glencore's coal business could be worth 17% more than its current market value [11] Group 5 - Platinum prices are expected to continue rising due to supply disruptions similar to those seen in 2008, alongside increased demand from hybrid vehicles and jewelry [12] - The first quarter of this year has already shown favorable demand trends, supporting the price increase [12] Group 6 - The U.S. plans to raise steel import tariffs to 50% under Section 232 to further reduce imports, which currently account for 28% of apparent steel consumption [15] - The government will need to avoid granting exemptions or negotiate alternative agreements to effectively lower import levels [15] Group 7 - China has become a net exporter of alumina, with exports surging 75% in the first four months of the year, driven by rapid capacity expansion and slowing domestic demand [20] - The country’s alumina demand is expected to grow by 1.1% this year, while supply is likely to exceed consumption [20] Group 8 - Hudbay's Copper World project has seen a stock price increase of over 55% since early April, driven by strong first-quarter performance and rising metal prices [22] - The project is valued between $130 million and $140 million, with potential interest from investors in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Japan [22]

周三，美国总统特朗普再次批评美联储主席鲍威尔， 称美联储设定的利率至少偏高3个百分 点。他呼吁美联储降息以帮助降低偿还国家债务成本 。这是鲍威尔连续第二天批评鲍威尔。 此前一天，特朗普在内阁会议发表讲话时表示，鲍威尔应立即辞职。他指责称，鲍威尔几个月 来一直在抱怨根本不存在的通胀，拒绝采取正确的行动。 交易员预计，特朗普的批评不会改变联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在7月会议上的决策。据 CME"美联储观察"，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率高达93.3.7%，而降息25个基点的概率 仅为6.7%。 美国副财长：希望鲍威尔卸任美联储理事 周三，美国财政部副部长迈克尔·福尔肯德也对鲍威尔发起攻击。他表示， 自己希望看到鲍威 尔在明年5月其主席任期结束后，从美联储理事会卸任 。 特朗普称，鲍威尔设定的利率(高出的)每个百分点，每年就会给美国造成了3600亿美元的再 融资成本。 "我们的美联储利率至少高了3个百分点，" 特朗普在Truth Social上写道。他表示， 美国当前"没有通胀，公司涌入美国"，并呼吁"降低利率" 。 美国联邦基金利率目标区间目前为4.25%-4.50%。如果美联储按照特朗普呼吁的幅度降息， 利 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 2025-07-10 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆生长天气良好丰产预期压制盘面，美豆短期千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回升，美 豆带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期回归区 间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2780（华东），基差-167，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存82.24万吨，上周69.16万吨，环比增加18.91%，去年同期108.27万吨， 同比减少34.32%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 ...