Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the significant net inflow of capital into various industries, particularly highlighting the strong performance of the defense and military sector amid rising geopolitical tensions and increased global military spending [2][8]. Group 1: Market Overview - The net inflow of capital in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets today reached 13.556 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board seeing a net inflow of 6.869 billion yuan and the CSI 300 index stocks experiencing a net inflow of 6.905 billion yuan [2]. - Among the 27 industries tracked, the defense and military industry led with a rise of 4.8%, followed by the power equipment industry with a 2.69% increase, and several other sectors, including machinery and non-bank financials, also saw gains exceeding 2% [3]. Group 2: Capital Flow by Industry - A total of 19 industries experienced net capital inflows, with the power equipment sector leading at 2.998 billion yuan, followed closely by the defense and military sector with a net inflow of 2.673 billion yuan. The electronics and machinery sectors also saw inflows exceeding 2.1 billion yuan [4]. - Conversely, 12 industries faced net capital outflows, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector leading the decline at over 700 million yuan. Other sectors such as non-ferrous metals, retail, textiles, and transportation also reported outflows exceeding 200 million yuan [4]. Group 3: Individual Stock Performance - There were 29 stocks with net capital inflows exceeding 200 million yuan, with 12 of those stocks seeing inflows over 360 million yuan [5]. - Notable individual stock performances included Dongfang Caifu with a net inflow of 1.341 billion yuan, followed by AVIC Chengfei with 1.06 billion yuan, as the military sector stocks showed strong performance [6][7]. - Other stocks with significant inflows included Luxshare Precision, Tosida, and Xinyi Technology, with inflows of 902 million yuan, 838 million yuan, and 605 million yuan, respectively [9]. Group 4: End-of-Day Capital Movements - At the end of the trading day, six stocks had net inflows exceeding 200 million yuan, with AVIC Chengfei leading at 983 million yuan [12]. - On the other hand, 19 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 400 million yuan, with Ningde Times leading the outflows at 895 million yuan [13].

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 12 日星期一 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：上周五受贸易进展不确定性和地缘冲突的影响伦敦金下破 3280 美元后 | | 研究员：王伟 | 持续反弹，最终收涨 0.63%，报 3326.46 美元/盎司。但周末中美经贸高层宣布会谈取得 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 了实质性进展，伦敦金今晨跳空低开；现货白银周五收涨 0.84%，报 32.72 美元/盎司。 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约收涨 0.33%，报 790.74 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.88%， | | 报 | 8221 元/千克。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2.美元指数：美元指数回吐前日部分涨幅，收跌 0.3%，报 100.339。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...

【白银期货行情表现】 美联储观察：美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为82.7%，降息25个基点的概率为17.3%。美联储7月维持 利率不变的概率为40.8%，累计降息25个基点的概率为50.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为8.7%。当前 市场押注美联储今年将在7月、10月、12月各降息1次。 ①印巴仅停火数小时再现零星冲突，虽相互指控但局势趋缓。宣布停火后，印控克什米尔地区再次传出 爆炸声，据悉部分地区采取停电措施，印巴互称击落对方无人机。印度军方称，打算对（巴方）反复的 行为作出回应。 普京提议俄乌双方15日在土耳其伊斯坦布尔无条件重启直接谈判、泽连斯基表示将在土耳其等候普京。 乌外长表示乌方准备无条件停火至少30天。 【机构观点】 银河期货：中美关税战再次升级 白银短期仍将弱势 继美英达成初步的贸易协议以来，中美之间的谈判也出现进展，市场风险情绪持续好转，当前投资者静 待即将公布的联合声明以评估其具体影响。另外，地缘冲突方面尽管波折不断但当前总体处于缓和的趋 势之中。整体来看，关税谈判出现了比较乐观的信号，美国经济将受到何种实质性影响需持续观察，短 期内贵金属前期由避险带来的溢价或有一定调整空间。 5月12日 ...

黄金期货 2025.05.12-05.16 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周美联储召开议息会议，维持基准利率不变，并指出关税对通胀的影 响较大且不确定，美元指数止跌反弹，黄金高位震荡。中长期支撑逻辑： 美国财政赤字及全球央行购金仍提供基本面支撑。后续需关注美联储政 策路径、地缘冲突与关税进展。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金短期回调压力犹存，等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力 合约2506下方支撑：758－765，上方压力829-836。 n 本周策略建议 黄金短期回调，等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力合约2508 下方支撑：776－785，上方压力828-837。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 精选指标情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Myste ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market has been influenced by trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, leading to a weekly increase of approximately 3.1% in gold prices, although profit-taking has limited further gains [1] - The decline in the US dollar index by 0.3% and ongoing concerns from Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation and economic growth have contributed to the upward pressure on gold prices [1] - Analysts suggest that in the short term, gold prices may enter a consolidation phase due to potential strengthening of the US dollar and a cooling expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that the Bollinger Bands have narrowed after an initial price surge, indicating a lack of market momentum [3] - The MACD indicator shows a decrease in upward momentum, with the histogram turning green, suggesting a weakening bullish trend [3] - The RSI has dropped to 55.86, indicating a shift towards a more cautious market sentiment [3] Group 3 - The suggested trading strategy includes shorting gold in the 3270-3275 range, with a stop loss at 3282 and a target of 3255-3245 [4] - The overall market sentiment remains bearish in the short term, with expectations of gold prices facing resistance in the 3250-3355 range unless significant positive news emerges [3][4]

[Table_Main] 海外市场周报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025 年 05 月 11 日 静待破局 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 上周全球股市涨跌参半。越南 VN30 指数领涨全球主要市场。美股三大指数集体回 调，道指、纳指和标普 500 涨跌幅分别为-0.2%、-0.3%和-0.5%；欧洲市场三大主 要指数表现分化，德国 DAX 指数上涨 1.8%，法国 CAC40 和英国富时 100 指数 小幅回调；亚太地区涨多跌少，仅恒生科技和印度 SENSEX30 指数回调。 美英协议的标杆作用大于实际意义。北京时间 5 月 8 日晚间，特朗普公布了美英 经贸谈判达成的协议一般条款，英国也成为了 4 月初全球"关税战"后首个与美国 达成经贸协议的国家。从大体内容上看，有三点值得重视：第一，基础关税 10% 得到保留，这也是 4 月初美国公布的对各国加征关税 ...

消费需求放缓。随着一季度全球金价20次突破历史新高，金饰需求遭遇冲击，销量跌至2020年疫情以来 最低。一季度，中国市场金饰消费量为125吨，同比下滑32%，较过去10年同期的平均水平低了29%， 创下2020年以来最疲软的一季度表现。高金价令一部分消费者持续转向购买克重更小、价格更亲民的金 饰产品，也有部分消费者选择持币观望。 央行持续购金。在全球地缘政治不确定性仍存的背景之下，2025年是全球央行连续净购金的第16年。一 季度全球官方黄金储备增加244吨，尽管同比下滑21.4%，但仍与过去3年季度均值持平，整体表现依旧 坚挺，显示官方储备多元化趋势延续。 全球市场环境不确定性较高 中长期来看，由于美国关税政策不确定性较高、地缘冲突等仍将持续，大国博弈的底层逻辑未有实质性 改变，黄金作为核心配置资产，长期维持偏多思路。 今年全球市场开局动荡，贸易争端频发、美国关税政策反复无常、地缘局势持续紧张，叠加全球经济衰 退预期卷土重来，这些因素共同导致投资者面临高度不确定的市场环境。在此背景下，黄金投资需求激 增。此外，美联储货币政策仍处于宽松周期，贵金属金融属性仍有支撑，但由于前期金价涨速过快，短 期或高位震荡，但 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - On May 7, the domestic commodity futures market saw more gains than losses, with major contracts for paraxylene, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, SC crude oil, and high-sulfur fuel oil rising over 2% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1362.44 points, up 5.61 points or 0.41% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Oil Market Impact - The strong rebound in international oil prices led to a collective rise in related domestic products, with paraxylene (PX) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) seeing increases of nearly 3% [2] - Factors contributing to the oil price rebound include geopolitical tensions and a recovery in market sentiment regarding trade wars, which have attracted buying interest [2] Group 3: Polyester Chain Dynamics - The rebound in oil prices has positively impacted the polyester chain, with PX and PTA main contracts closing up 2.81% and 2.72% respectively [3] - Domestic PX and PTA prices are expected to remain tight due to ongoing maintenance and inventory depletion, with potential for further price testing [3] Group 4: Weakness in Silicon and Lithium Carbonate - Both polysilicon and lithium carbonate main contracts hit historical lows, with polysilicon down 3.63% and lithium carbonate down 1.99% [4] - Despite marginal improvements in the polysilicon market, the supply-demand balance remains loose, leading to continued downward pressure [4][5] Group 5: Aluminum Market Trends - The main contract for aluminum fell over 2%, driven by seasonal demand weakness and declining alumina prices [5][6] - The overall inventory levels for aluminum products remain low compared to previous years, but the market faces pressure from international trade dynamics [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the current surge in gold prices has attracted a new generation of young investors in China, who are replacing the older generation's interest in gold investment, seeking to capitalize on perceived financial opportunities [2][7]. - Young investors are increasingly viewing gold as a high-return investment, with discussions on social media highlighting significant profits from gold purchases, indicating a shift in investment beliefs among the younger demographic [3][9]. - The article discusses the historical context of gold as a safe-haven asset, tracing its price movements back to events such as the U.S.-China trade tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic, which have contributed to its appeal as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [6][10]. Group 2 - The article notes that the demographic of gold consumers has shifted, with the proportion of young people aged 25 to 34 engaging in gold purchases rising from 16% to 59%, indicating a significant trend in gold consumption among younger generations [9]. - It highlights the risks associated with gold investment, particularly for young investors who may be using credit and loans to finance their purchases, which could lead to financial strain if gold prices decline [13][14]. - The article emphasizes the complexities and potential pitfalls of investing in gold, including issues with liquidity and the challenges of selling gold products, which may not yield the expected returns due to high markups and purity concerns [11][12].

近期黄金市场热度飙升，金价（XAU/USD）连续两日吸引避险资金涌入，周二亚洲时段攀升至近两周高点的 3381 - 3382 美元区域。ETO Markets 分析认 为，市场避险情绪主导金价走势，而未来美联储决议等关键事件将决定其后续方向。 避险情绪高企，金价强势攀升 贸易政策不确定性持续 全球贸易关系虽现缓和迹象，但特朗普贸易政策反复无常，如对海外电影征收 100%关税，打击全球贸易稳定性。尽管美国可能重启谈判，但特朗普暗示本 周或达成协议却未指明国家，市场忧虑难消。 地缘冲突不断升级 地缘政治局势紧张，俄乌冲突持续升级，乌克兰无人机袭击莫斯科致三大机场关闭；周日以色列联合美军空袭也门荷台达港，以回应胡塞武装攻击。这些事 件凸显黄金避险属性，支撑金价上涨。 避险情绪主导市场 本周二开始的 FOMC 会议是影响金价的关键事件。尽管美国服务业与就业数据强劲降低短期降息预期，但若美联储暗示年内仍有降息可能，金价有望进一 步上行。 美元走势与市场反应 市场策略师指出，即便美元买盘回升，黄金仍坚挺，表明市场对地缘政治担忧远超经济数据乐观情绪。投资者在复杂环境下，更倾向于将黄金作为避险资 产。 技术面：金价面临关键阻 ...