流动性增量预期较强，估值端存在明显支撑——A 股市场 2025 年下半年投资 策略报告 基金研究 市场结构分化，主动权益基金收益跑赢指数——公募基金 2025 年半年度投资 策略 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 晨会纪要（2025/06/27） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.06.27） 宏观及策略研究 证 行业研究 券 聚焦内需视角下，关注以旧换新与新消费投资机会——轻工制造&纺织服饰 2025 年半年度投资策略报告 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/06/27） 宏观及策略研究 流动性增量预期较强，估值端存在明显支撑——A 股市场 2025 年下半年投资策略报告 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S115012403000 ...

【 导读 】 基金经理解读消费新政 中国基金报记者 张燕北 孙晓辉 消费板块再迎重磅利好！ 6月24日，中国人民银行、国家发展改革委、财政部、商务部、金融监管总局、 中国 证监会 等六部门 联合发布《关于金融支持提振和扩 大消费的指导意见》（ 以下 简称《指导意见》），从支持增强消费能力、着力提升金融机构专业化服务能力、加大消费重点领域金融支 持、强化消费基础设施和流通体系的金融支持、加强基础金融服务优化消费环境等方面提出19条具体举措，为更好发挥消费对经济发展的 基础性作用提供有力支撑。 受访基金经理认为，该政策立足长远，有利于打通消费领域尤其是服务消费和新消费的金融堵点，激活内需新引擎。 对资本市场而言，由于消费板块当前估值处于历史低位，政策落地将显著提振信心， 服务消费或好于实物消费 。不过，部分前期涨幅较大 的"新消费"概念股可能面临调整压力。 打通金融堵点 激活内需新引擎 在受访基金经理看来， 提振消费是我国经济转型的重头戏。外围不确定性的增加使市场交易主线从出口驱动转向内需驱动。 《指导意见》 的 推出， 主要目的在于打通金融堵点，激活内需新引擎。 永赢新兴消费智选基金经理蒋卫华表示， 当前外需不 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China, along with six other departments, has issued guidelines to boost consumption, indicating a strong governmental push for consumer spending in 2023 [1] - The Yangtze River Delta region has shown positive growth in retail sales from January to May, with Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui all exceeding 5% growth, while Shanghai's growth has improved to 1.4% [2][3] Group 1: Consumption Growth - Retail sales in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Shanghai grew by 5.6%, 5.3%, 5.5%, and 1.4% respectively from January to May [2] - Shanghai has reversed its previous negative consumption trend, reclaiming its status as the "consumption capital" with a total retail sales figure of 687.21 billion yuan [2][3] - The implementation of the "618" shopping festival and trade-in subsidies has led to double-digit growth in various categories in Shanghai [2] Group 2: Policy Impact - The central government's focus on consumption and the introduction of new policies have significantly improved the consumption market [2] - Shanghai's action plan includes six major initiatives aimed at increasing consumer income and enhancing the consumption environment [2] Group 3: Emerging Consumption Trends - New consumption trends are emerging, with significant growth in categories such as wearable smart devices, which saw a 147% increase in retail sales in Jiangsu [4] - The rise of new consumption scenarios, such as the HADO AR sports event, reflects the vibrant consumer market [4] - New consumer enterprises in sectors like tea drinks and trendy toys have reported an average revenue growth of 65% in 2024 [5]

Group 1 - The 2025 Digital Economy New Consumption Conference was held in Chongqing, focusing on the integration of consumer goods and digital economy, aiming to promote industry exchanges and capital-project interactions [3][15] - The conference highlighted the trend of "precision consumption," with a 19% year-on-year increase in users opting for interest-free installment payments during the "6·18" shopping festival [6] - The event featured discussions on overcoming challenges in the consumer goods sector, emphasizing the need for digital transformation and innovative marketing strategies [11][12] Group 2 - The conference showcased successful case studies, such as the rapid growth of the high-tech apparel brand "Meili City," which achieved significant market presence within a year by focusing on product innovation and targeted marketing [8] - A roundtable discussion included insights from various industry leaders, emphasizing the importance of integrating food culture and digital strategies to create successful products [11][12] - The launch of the 2025 Digital Economy New Consumption Initiative aims to explore new paths for consumer innovation, focusing on collaboration across different sectors to enhance consumer experiences [15][17]

中新网重庆6月26日电 (记者 刘贤)2025数字经济新消费创享会26日在重庆两江新区举行，吸引金融投资 机构、消费品牌企业、服务机构等参加，共探消费品破圈升级之道。 重庆两江新区是中国内陆首个国家级开发开放新区，数字经济规模超2000亿元、数字经济主体超8000 家。两江新区管理委员会副主任杨海岚在会上邀请企业家与两江新区共创消费新场景、共建数据新枢 纽、共育产业新集群、共塑电商新范式。 会上宣布启动的2025数字经济新消费创享计划，将围绕金融赋能、消费品创新、研发营销协同探索新消 费创新发展的新路径新模式，实现各领域相互赋能、共同增长。 其中包括，以馒头超人与湾贝咖啡为代表的联名计划，通过探索跨界联名的无限可能，为消费者持续输 出全新的消费体验；以麦芽传媒与新罐头工厂为代表的共创计划，整合各自发展策略和优势资源，在品 牌打造与传播等领域共创佳绩；以沐斐同创(重庆)科技有限公司携海姆立克防噎仪，联动重庆餐饮头部 企业为代表的联动计划，为消费场景注入更多科技力量。(完) 图为2025数字经济新消费创享计划启动仪式现场。两江新区现代服务业局 供图 创享会由重庆市商务委员会、重庆两江新区管理委员会联合主办，以"数 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing boom in the Hong Kong IPO market, with significant fundraising and multiple companies going public simultaneously [3][6]. - Three consumer companies, Chow Tai Fook, Saint Bella, and Yingtong Holdings, had their IPOs on the same day, with Chow Tai Fook and Saint Bella experiencing substantial stock price increases, while Yingtong Holdings faced a decline [2][4]. - As of June 26, 2023, the total amount raised through Hong Kong IPOs reached HKD 1,047.2 billion, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 and representing an eightfold increase compared to the same period in 2022 [3][6]. Group 2 - Chow Tai Fook reported a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.8% in revenue from 2022 to 2024, with revenues projected at HKD 31.02 billion, HKD 51.50 billion, and HKD 57.18 billion for those years [4]. - Saint Bella's revenue is expected to grow from HKD 4.72 billion in 2022 to HKD 7.99 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 30.15% [4]. - Yingtong Holdings is noted as the largest perfume group in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, with projected revenues of HKD 16.99 billion, HKD 18.64 billion, and HKD 20.83 billion for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively [5]. Group 3 - The influx of southbound capital into the Hong Kong stock market has reached HKD 710 billion, exceeding 85% of the total net inflow for the entire year of 2024 [7]. - The Hong Kong IPO market is expected to see around 40 companies debut in the first half of 2025, with many A-share listed companies or their subsidiaries planning to issue IPOs in Hong Kong [7].

New Consumption Overview - Master Kong launched a premium product, "Chao Lu Beef Noodle," specifically for Sam's Club, featuring over 60g of ingredients including beef tripe, tendon, and shank, cooked for over 12 hours [4] - Team Wang Design collaborated with Pharrell Williams' Billionaire Boys Club to release a new series called "SPARKLES - Life is a Race," with an immersive pop-up space planned in Fabula Paris [4] - Vans introduced a high-end line called OTW by Vans, featuring modern interpretations of classic shoe models [4] Dairy and Beverage Innovations - Haihe Dairy launched "Tianjin Sesame Sauce Yogurt," made with over 80% fresh milk and featuring local sesame and peanut sauce [7] - Lotte Chilsung introduced an innovative "Crush All-Open Can" beer, which allows the entire lid to be opened [8] Corporate Developments - General Mills is considering selling its Haagen-Dazs stores in China due to sales challenges in the market [8] - Feihe Dairy and Lihigh Foods established a joint venture named "Heli (Inner Mongolia) Dairy Co., Ltd." with a registered capital of 25 million RMB [8] - Jiamei Packaging and Lemon Republic formed a new company, "Yingtan Jialing Beverage Co., Ltd.," to innovate and produce healthy drinks [11] Financial Updates - IF Coconut Water's parent company, IFBH, passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing, reporting revenues of $87.44 million and $158 million for 2023 and 2024, respectively, with net profits of $16.75 million and $33.32 million, both showing over 80% year-on-year growth [11] - Dôen, a California women's clothing brand, completed a Series A funding round led by Silas Capital to accelerate retail expansion and infrastructure development [11] Strategic Partnerships - Lao Xiang Ji and DingTalk signed a strategic cooperation agreement to develop smart restaurants utilizing AI technology [12] - Louis Vuitton became an official partner of Real Madrid, enhancing its influence in global sports culture [12] - Nike postponed the launch of its collaboration with Skims, a shapewear brand owned by Kim Kardashian [12] - Oakley announced a partnership with Meta to develop smart glasses aimed at athletes [12] - Novo Nordisk and Alibaba Health formed a strategic partnership to create a one-stop weight management knowledge and service platform [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article reveals the growth strategies of merchants during the Douyin Mall 618 shopping festival, highlighting the popularity of various products across different categories and the underlying consumer trends and business methodologies [3][5][6]. Group 1: Fashion Sales Rankings - The fashion sales rankings cover seven subcategories, showing a significant increase in outdoor apparel consumption, with items like fishing, camping, and cycling gear gaining popularity [7][9]. - Functional clothing such as sun protection sleeves and quick-dry sportswear have become new favorites among consumers [7][11]. - Jewelry items like pearl accessories and crystal jewelry have also seen explosive growth as summer fashion trends evolve [7][12]. Group 2: Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) Sales Rankings - The FMCG sales rankings encompass 16 subcategories, indicating a shift towards low-alcohol fruit wines and quality red wines among younger consumers [28][30]. - The pet industry is also thriving, with not only staple pet food but also niche products like aquarium supplies and small pet accessories gaining traction [28][30]. Group 3: Durable Goods Sales Rankings - The durable goods sales rankings include 11 subcategories, showcasing a blend of traditional necessities and emerging smart devices [93]. - Products like floor cleaning machines and smart toilets are becoming standard in home cleaning, while smart locks and cameras are gaining popularity in home security [93][95]. Group 4: Business Strategies and Insights - The 618 sales rankings serve as a "wind vane" for brands to understand consumer trends and as an "accelerator" for brand growth, creating a closed loop of traffic, voice, and sales [140][141]. - Companies like Midea have effectively utilized multi-channel strategies, including content marketing and influencer collaborations, to boost sales and brand visibility during the event [141][143]. - The rankings provide valuable insights for merchants to optimize product selection and marketing strategies, helping them capture market growth opportunities [139][148].

Core Viewpoint - The active equity funds have seen a steady increase in net asset value (NAV), with 228 funds reaching all-time highs as of June 25, driven by market trends and effective fund management [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of June 25, 2023, the unit NAV of the Guangfa Technology Select Stock Fund, established on April 17, 2023, reached a new high of 1.0627 yuan, focusing on investment opportunities in technology-themed companies [1]. - The CITIC Prudential Prosperity Mixed Fund, launched in February 2024, achieved a unit NAV of 1.6317 yuan on June 25, with a focus on consumer sectors, industries benefiting from stable growth, national security, and high-tech manufacturing [2]. - The Jinyuan Shun'an Yuanqi Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund, established in November 2017, reached a unit NAV of 5.5162 yuan on June 25, with a three-year NAV growth rate of 78.24% [2]. - The Guangfa Multi-Factor Mixed Fund, launched in December 2016, achieved a unit NAV of 3.9408 yuan on June 25, with a three-year NAV growth rate of 14.59% [3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Insights - The continuous expansion of market hotspots and significant structural opportunities have supported the growth of fund NAVs, with sectors like technology, new energy, new consumption, and pharmaceuticals performing well since 2025 [1]. - The market is expected to maintain a technology-driven trend in 2025, with an overall increase in risk appetite as external disturbances ease, suggesting a focus on technology, consumption, high-end manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals [2]. - The performance of active equity funds has been challenging against benchmarks in recent years, but a longer evaluation period shows that some high-performing funds can outperform indices, highlighting the importance of fund managers' capabilities [3].

招商基金投资管理一部总监李崟认为，2025年下半年，A股市场是机会与风险并存的格局。机会主要表 现在，目前A股市场整体的估值水平还处在历史偏低位置，同时宏观上正处于货币政策与财政政策"双 宽松"的时期，对A股市场向好形成了重要支撑。风险主要在于，外部不确定性逐渐增强，可能对A股产 生负面影响。 国联安基金常务副总经理、首席投资官魏东表示，2025年市场呈现局部化特征，板块分化明显，结构性 机会突出，资金聚焦细分赛道。投资策略上，要聚焦中国发展的必经之路与新兴赛道，布局安全与战略 产业、政策支持方向，关注新消费、技术前沿等新兴趋势。在当前市场，投资者需把握宏观逻辑，挖掘 结构性机会。 近期，基金公司陆续发布下半年投资策略。多家基金公司认为，下半年A股投资机会大于风险，结构性 机会突出，其中，科技板块是多家基金公司下半年重点关注的方向，或将涌现新的投资机会。 此外，基金公司认为，港股流动性的想象空间持续打开，下半年恒生科技指数的估值有望持续提升，将 继续关注港股市场的机会。 A股结构性机会突出 近期，多家基金公司陆续举办年中策略会或发布下半年投资策略。多家基金公司认为，下半年A股投资 充满机会。 "A股市场整体或 ...