Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Steel and iron ore, which had significant declines in the previous period, showed signs of stabilization yesterday. Steel short positions were reduced, while iron ore positions continued to increase. - Although plate inventories have accumulated significantly, with appropriate production cuts by steel mills, the inventory is expected to turn to destocking. The reduction in hot-rolled coil production is not obvious, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar is expected to continue to converge. For single-side trading, it is advisable to wait and see for now. The January contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to stabilize around 3000 and 3200 yuan respectively [1]. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3190, 3120, and 3230 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, -10, and 0 yuan compared to the previous day. Rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 were 3102, 3141, and 3049 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 12, 191, and 15 yuan [1]. - Hot-rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3280, 3190, and 3230 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, -10, and 0 yuan compared to the previous day. Hot-rolled coil futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 were 3233, 3254, and 3219 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 10, -356, and 7 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price was 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, also unchanged. - The cost of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar decreased by 2 yuan to 3307 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 17 yuan to 3140 yuan/ton. - The profit of East China hot-rolled coil decreased by 4 yuan, and the profit of North China hot-rolled coil decreased by 14 yuan to -55 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output was 240.9 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons or 0.3% compared to the previous day. The output of the five major steel products was 857.0 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons or 0.7% compared to the previous day. The rebar output was 201.2 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons or 1.1% compared to the previous day, among which the electric furnace output increased by 3.1 tons or 13.5%, and the converter output decreased by 5.4 tons or 3.0%. The hot-rolled coil output was 321.8 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons or 0.4% compared to the previous day [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products was 1582.3 tons, a decrease of 18.5 tons or 1.2% compared to the previous day. The rebar inventory was 641.1 tons, a decrease of 18.6 tons or 2.8% compared to the previous day. The hot-rolled coil inventory was 419.2 tons, an increase of 6.3 tons or 1.5% compared to the previous day [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 10.2 tons, an increase of 1.0 tons or 11.4% compared to the previous day. The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 875.4 tons, an increase of 124.0 tons or 16.5% compared to the previous day. The apparent demand for rebar was 219.8 tons, an increase of 66.6 tons or 43.5% compared to the previous day. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil was 315.6 tons, an increase of 20.5 tons or 7.0% compared to the previous day [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The iron ore futures continued to fluctuate weakly yesterday. The supply and demand situation of iron ore is changing from balanced and tight to relatively loose. Due to the weak operation of steel prices, the profitability of steel mills continues to decline, and the weak demand side will force iron ore to operate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for single-side trading, with a reference range of 750 - 800. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [3]. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of Carajas fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines were 826.4, 824.9, 832.0, and 834.9 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1.1, 3.3, 0.0, and 3.2 yuan compared to the previous day. - The 01 contract basis for Carajas fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines was 52.9, 51.4, 58.5, and 61.4 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 4.1, 6.3, 3.0, and 6.2 yuan compared to the previous day [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indices - The spot prices of Carajas fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port were 904.0, 778.0, 810.0, and 733.0 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, and 3.0 yuan compared to the previous day. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price was 105.7 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.2 dollars compared to the previous day, and the Platts 62% Fe price was 106.2 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 3045.8 tons, an increase of 437.1 tons or 16.8% compared to the previous week. The weekly global shipment volume was 3207.5 tons, a decrease of 71.5 tons or -2.2% compared to the previous week. The national monthly import volume was 10522.5 tons, an increase of 61.5 tons or 0.6% compared to the previous month [3]. Demand - The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 241.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons or -0.2% compared to the previous week. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 327.0 tons, a decrease of 9.4 tons or -2.8% compared to the previous week. The national monthly pig iron output was 6979.3 tons, a decrease of 100.5 tons or -1.4% compared to the previous month. The national monthly crude steel output was 7736.9 tons, a decrease of 229.0 tons or -2.9% compared to the previous month [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 61.6 tons or 0.4% compared to Monday of the previous week. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9046.2 tons, a decrease of 990.6 tons or -9.9% compared to the previous week. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 21 days [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints Coke - Coke futures showed an oscillating upward trend yesterday. Recently, the spot and futures markets have not been in sync. After mainstream coke enterprises proposed a price increase once and then remained stable, port trade quotes rebounded. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1620 - 1770, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures also showed an oscillating upward trend yesterday. The spot auction prices in Shanxi recovered, and the prices of some coal types rebounded significantly, with Mongolian coal prices rising steadily. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices in the short term, with a reference range of 1120 - 1250, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. Summary by Directory Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1561 and 1613 yuan/ton respectively. The coke 01 contract was 1673 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan or 1.9% compared to the previous day [5]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) were 1300 and 1247 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 30 and 41 yuan compared to the previous day. The coking coal 01 contract was 1186 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan or 3.0% compared to the previous day [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or -1.3% compared to October 10th. The daily average output of 247 steel mills was 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or -0.1% compared to October 10th [5]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 241.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons or -0.2% compared to October 10th. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or -1.3% compared to October 10th [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory was 891.9 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons or -2.0% compared to October 10th. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 57.3 tons, a decrease of 6.6 tons or -10.3% compared to October 10th. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 639.4 tons, a decrease of 11.4 tons or -1.7% compared to October 10th [5]. - The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines' clean coal was 100.5 tons, a decrease of 10.7 tons or -9.6% compared to October 10th. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 997.4 tons, an increase of 38.3 tons or 4.0% compared to October 10th [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall situation of the rapeseed industry is affected by multiple factors including trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and international market trends. For rapeseed meal, it is expected to remain weakly volatile, and for rapeseed oil, it will continue the de - stocking mode, but short - term observation is needed [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9935 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2364 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed was 633 Canadian dollars/ton, up 4.4 Canadian dollars, and that of the active contract of rapeseed was 5255 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 441 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was 58 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 287,961 lots, down 8681 lots; that of rapeseed meal was 354,755 lots, down 7176 lots. The net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions of rapeseed oil was 15,423 lots, up 445 lots; that of rapeseed meal was - 84,324 lots, up 2250 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil was 7590 sheets, unchanged; that for rapeseed meal was 8699 sheets, down 390 sheets [2]. 2. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,263.75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed was 7541.12 yuan/ton, up 42.32 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 235 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 86 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8540 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons. The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 5 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed was 3.73%, down 1.6% [2]. 4. Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 6 million tons, down 1.67 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, down 1.53 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 50.9 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 27.9 million tons, down 0.69 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 2.8 million tons, down 0.75 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 22.5 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2]. 5. Downstream Situation -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.22 million tons, down 2.96 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 1.09 million tons, down 1.32 million tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2927.2 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 450.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly value of social consumer goods retail sales in the catering industry was 4495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 6. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 20.57%, up 0.32%; that of at - the - money put options was 20.56%, up 0.32%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.23%, up 0.01%; that of at - the - money put options was 14.23%, up 0.01% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 23.6%, up 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 25.05%, unchanged. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.39%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.91%, up 0.02% [2]. 7. Industry News - On October 15th, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by technical buying and the strong trend of the US soybean oil market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures rose 4.80 Canadian dollars to settle at 620.40 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January futures rose 4.20 Canadian dollars to settle at 634.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - In the US, the harvest in the Midwest is progressing actively due to favorable weather, and the expected high - yield of US soybeans restricts the market price. The US government shutdown leads to a lack of data and market caution [2]. 8. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Internationally, the US soybean export pressure remains due to the lack of progress in Sino - US trade relations. The high - yield of Canadian rapeseed is basically realized, which puts pressure on its price. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is restricted, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal is expected to remain weakly volatile [2]. 9. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - Internationally, Indonesia's plan to increase biodiesel to B50 next year is positive for the palm oil market, but Malaysia's palm oil inventory has increased for seven consecutive months. Domestically, the initial ruling on anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed is out, and the import of rapeseed is expected to be structurally tightened in the fourth quarter. Rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode, but the abundant supply of soybean oil weakens the demand for rapeseed oil. The short - term trend needs to be observed [2]. 10. Key Points of Attention - Monitor the rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory data from myagricultural.com on Mondays, as well as the Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade policies [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an egg daily report dated October 16, 2025, released by the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product Research and Development [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3175, down 29 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3342, down 7; JD09 closed at 3863, down 7 [3] - The 01 - 05 spread closed at -167, down 22; the 05 - 09 spread remained unchanged at -521; the 09 - 01 spread closed at 688, up 22 [3] - Ratios like 01 egg/corn and 01 egg/soybean meal decreased slightly [3] Spot Market - The average price in the main production areas was 2.82 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.05 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin [3][6] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.21 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin [3][8] Profit Calculation - The profit per chicken was -1.17 yuan, an increase of 4.64 yuan from the previous day [3] - Feed prices such as corn and soybean meal decreased slightly [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In September, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month, higher than expected. The monthly hatch of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises was 39.2 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14% [7] - From October 2025 to January 2026, the estimated laying - hen inventory is approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7] - In the week of October 2, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was 20.12 million, an increase of 3% from the previous week. The average culling age was 500 days, an increase of 2 days [7] - As of the week of October 9, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7179 tons, a decrease of 5.8% from the previous week [8] - As of the week of October 9, the average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links increased by 0.24 days and 0.2 days respectively [8] - As of October 2, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.4 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.3 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 3, the expected profit of laying - hen farming was 3.3 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - The supply of laying hens remains high, while the demand is generally weak. In the short term, egg prices are likely to be weak, and near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, consider closing out previous short positions to take profits [10] - For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: October 16, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The oil price is expected to decline, and the asphalt fundamentals have not improved significantly. It is predicted to fluctuate weakly, and the operation should be based on a short - selling strategy [6] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures market**: For BU2511, the opening price was 3274 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3250 yuan/ton, the highest was 3279 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3241 yuan/ton, the decline was 1.10%, and the trading volume was 11.28 million lots. For BU2512, the opening price was 3190 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3184 yuan/ton, the highest was 3201 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3169 yuan/ton, the decline was 0.75%, and the trading volume was 4.33 million lots [6] - **Spot market**: The asphalt spot prices in the Northwest, Northeast, and East China regions were relatively stable, while those in other regions decreased to varying degrees. The decline in crude oil and asphalt futures prices had a negative impact on the asphalt spot market [6] - **Supply - demand analysis**: The supply of asphalt is accelerating due to profit and raw material support. The demand increased in September and is expected to remain high in October under the support of the peak demand season. However, the speculative demand is limited due to the uncertainty of the crude oil end and the cautious sentiment in the spot market [6] Group 5: Industry News - **South China market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3350 - 3550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Some futures - cash merchants sold goods, and the continued decline of the asphalt futures market led to a decrease in the low - end price of the South China market. The market's receiving sentiment was weak [7] - **East China market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3450 - 3550 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. Due to the continued decline of the asphalt futures market and limited demand improvement, the futures and spot sources in the East China region continued to decline, pulling down the social inventory price. After the mainstream range of refinery road - transport prices was adjusted down, the price was temporarily stable [7] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][15][19][23]

观点与策略 2025年10月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 | 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期反弹，趋势仍承压 | 6 | | 沥青：出货承压 | 8 | | LLDPE：趋势偏弱 | 10 | | PP：趋势仍偏弱 | 11 | | 烧碱：短期反弹，高度或有限 | 12 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 16 | | 尿素：短期震荡，趋势承压 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：空单止盈 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：低位相对抗跌，成本压力仍存 | 22 | | 丙烯：需求转弱，短期弱势运行 | 22 | | PVC：趋势偏弱 | 25 | | 燃料油：夜盘小幅反弹，短期弱势仍在 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：短期继续弱于高硫，外盘现货高低硫价差再次收窄 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 27 | | 短纤：成交支撑，下方空间不大 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: After the holiday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly. With some PTA device maintenance and production reduction, and the postponement of new device production, the PTA supply - demand outlook improved. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes and downstream production and sales [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival at the main port of ethylene glycol is still high, and the port inventory is expected to rise early next week. In October, the supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol turns to inventory accumulation, with an overall accumulation of about 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol market will operate weakly. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated at a low level yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis was weak. The trading was mainly among traders, and the polyester factories' purchasing enthusiasm was limited. The mainstream price for October goods was negotiated and traded at around 85 points discount to the 01 contract, with individual prices slightly higher, and the price negotiation range was around 4,305 - 4,345. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 85 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,325, the basis of the 01 contract is - 97, and the futures price is at a premium. It is neutral [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.22 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 days. It is bearish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [6]. - Main position: The net short position increased. It is bearish [6]. - **MEG** - Fundamental: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated in a low range, and the market negotiation was average. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened lower and consolidated, and the trading in the market was weak. In the morning, affected by the news of additional port charges for existing ships, the ethylene glycol disk rose slightly, and then the market maintained a narrow - range shock. In the afternoon, the basis fell slightly, and the spot was traded at around a 63 - 65 yuan/ton premium to the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level. The recent cargo was negotiated at around 483 - 487 US dollars/ton, and there were transactions at around 484 US dollars/ton for recent cargo during the day. The trading was mainly participated by traders [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,122, the basis of the 01 contract is 65, and the futures price is at a discount. It is neutral [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 445,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,800 tons. It is bearish [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [8]. - Main position: The main net short position decreased. It is bearish [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Positive Factors** - Before the holiday, driven by the recovery of demand and the rebound of oil prices, the sales of the polyester market were booming. The equity inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarn quickly decreased to about half a month, and the prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, the polyester prices were stable, and the production and sales of filament yarn were only 10% - 20%. The average inventory accumulation in 8 days is expected to exceed 5 days [9]. - Some PTA device maintenance and production reduction, and the postponement of new device production [10]. - **Negative Factors** - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently gradually increasing its operation to over 90%. This device reduced its load around October 7 [11]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points** - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the disk rebounds [12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It records the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, supply, polyester production capacity, load, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the supply - demand gap and inventory changes [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It records the ethylene glycol production, import, supply, polyester production capacity, load, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the supply - demand gap and port inventory changes [14]. - **Price Data**: It includes the price trends of bottle - grade chips, production margins, operating rates, inventory, spreads, and other data from 2020 to 2025, covering PTA, MEG, and polyester products [16][19][23][24][26][30][33][37][40][42][51][53][57][62][63][66].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of V2601 are bearish, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with the range estimated to be between 4,620 - 4,710 yuan/ton [2]. - The inventory is expected to maintain a high - level accumulation trend. The demand growth is restricted by the weak domestic real - estate market, and the export market may remain on the sidelines due to the impact of the Indian anti - dumping tax [2]. - The calcium carbide process is in deep loss, and chlor - alkali enterprises use "alkali to make up for chlorine". However, the calcium carbide supply is abundant and the price is weak, so the cost - side support is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of PVC futures is 4,677 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the trading volume is 632,849 lots, down 103,795 lots; the open interest is 1,271,985 lots, up 17,706 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 168,866 lots, down 13,513 lots [3]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC in East and South China have declined. The domestic and international PVC prices in some regions remain unchanged, and the basis is - 97 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The price of calcium carbide in the Northwest has decreased by 5 yuan/ton, while the prices in other regions remain unchanged. The prices of VCM in CFR Far East and Southeast Asia have increased, while the prices of EDC remain unchanged [3]. - **Industrial Situation**: The weekly operating rate of PVC is 82.63%, up 3.66 percentage points. The social inventory of PVC is 55.7 tons, up 1.93 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The real - estate related indicators show a mixed trend. The new housing construction area and real - estate development investment have increased, while the national real - estate prosperity index has decreased [3]. - **Option Market**: The historical volatility of PVC has decreased, while the implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options has increased [3]. b. Industry News - From October 4th to 10th, the utilization rate of China's PVC production capacity was 82.63%, up 1.21% from the previous period [3]. - From October 4th to 10th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 8.55% to 39.21%, with the pipe operating rate down 7.6% to 32.83% and the profile operating rate down 23.04% to 15.87% [3]. - As of October 9th, the social inventory of PVC was 103.63 tons, up 5.58% from the previous week [3]. - From October 4th to 10th, the cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 168 yuan/ton to 5,126 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 5,493 yuan/ton. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 153 yuan/ton to - 622 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 538 yuan/ton [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic methanol production has increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol plants may continue to rise. The inventory of inland enterprises has increased, but the inventory in the northwest region has decreased instead. The methanol port inventory has accumulated, and there is still a possibility of an increase in port inventory in October. The short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly, and the MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2260 - 2350 [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2274 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 26 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton. The main contract position is 1051360 lots, an increase of 59418 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 146230 lots, a decrease of 30507 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 11282, unchanged [3]. 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2230 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2082.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 147.5 yuan/ton, down 72.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 44 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol in the Chinese main port is 264 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 326 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 272 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 62 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.1 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.03 US dollars/million British thermal units [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 108.05 tons, an increase of 4.78 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 46.27 tons, an increase of 0.32 tons. The import profit of methanol is 15.43 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 175.98 tons, an increase of 65.71 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 339400 tons, an increase of 19500 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.59%, an increase of 7.06 percentage points [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 34.11%, down 10.07 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 4.98%, down 2.22 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid is 82.96%, up 3.99 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 64.12%, down 0.11 percentage points; the operating rate of olefins is 93.19%, up 1.3 percentage points. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1020 yuan/ton, an increase of 113 yuan/ton [3]. 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 15.99%, up 3.45 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.83%, up 1.69 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options is 18.27%, up 2.23 percentage points [3]. 7. Industry News - As of October 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 33.94 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.08%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 11.52 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 57.79%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 154.32 tons, an increase of 5.10 tons. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 93.74%, a month - on - month increase of 4.49% [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The output of domestic synthetic rubber is expected to increase month - on - month as most previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and some plants are operating at increased loads. The br2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,600 - 11,250 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. - In terms of raw materials, although there are planned overhauls of butadiene plants in October, the supply of butadiene remains abundant due to the resumption of previously under - loaded plants and imports. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly during the holiday due to maintenance, but it is expected to rise significantly this week as the plants resume operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract was 10,780 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the open interest of the main contract was 29,075, down 2,938; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was - 110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 3,070 tons, up 200 tons [2]. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers decreased, with the price from齐鲁石化 at 11,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from 大庆石化 at 11,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; and from 茂名石化 at 11,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 370 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Brent crude oil was at $63.32 per barrel, up $0.59; WTI crude oil was at $59.49 per barrel, up $0.59; the Northeast Asian ethylene price was $785 per ton, unchanged; the CFR Japan naphtha price was $566.75 per ton, down $10; the CFR China butadiene intermediate price was $1,020 per ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity was 155,400 tons, up 100 tons; the butadiene capacity utilization rate was 67.37%, up 0.72 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 27,750 tons, unchanged [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, up 6,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.41%, down 3.31 percentage points; the production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, down 1,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 55.26%, down 18.32 percentage points; the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic all - steel tires was 50.87%, down 14.85 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.87 days, up 0.36 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.7 days, down 0.23 days [2]. Industry News - From October 9th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased significantly compared with the previous period and the same period last year, and the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises also decreased. Some enterprises carried out maintenance during the holiday, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 800,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2]. - In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber decreased slightly. The capacity utilization rate was 69.91%, down 0.49 percentage points from the previous period and up 12.16 percentage points from the same period last year [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term L2601 is expected to show a volatile trend. Technically, attention should be paid to the low - level support around 6891 and the pressure of the five - day moving average around 7034. In the long run, PE supply may increase significantly. The downstream shed film demand is gradually reaching its annual peak, but the current performance of agricultural film orders and start - up is not as good as in previous years. Due to the continuous Sino - US trade dispute, market sentiment is weak, and industrial products mainly decline during the day [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene (daily, yuan/ton) is 6918, down 65; the 1 - month contract is 6918, down 65; the 5 - month contract is 6949, down 80; the 9 - month contract is 6997, down 74. The trading volume (daily, lots) is 266284, down 13738, and the open interest (daily, lots) is 577097, up 12312. The 1 - 5 spread is - 31, up 15. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 417937, up 3411; the short positions are 491357, up 8140; the net long positions are - 73420, down 4729 [2] 现货市场 - The average price of LLDPE(7042) in North China (daily, yuan/ton) is 7060.87, down 28.7; in East China is 7240.71, down 15. The basis is 77.87 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore (daily, US dollars/barrel) is 61.47, down 1.11; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan (daily, US dollars/ton) is 566.75, down 10. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia (daily, US dollars/ton) is 781, unchanged; in Northeast Asia is 786, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE start - up rate (daily, %) is 83.95, up 1.85 [2] Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of polyethylene (PE) for packaging film (weekly, %) is 52.89, up 0.52; for pipes (weekly, %) is 31.67, down 0.5; for agricultural film (weekly, %) is 35.61, up 2.75 [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene (daily, %) is 8.03, up 0.37; the 40 - day historical volatility is 7.24, up 0.21. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene (daily, %) is 10.68, up 0.35; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.68, up 0.34 [2] Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th, China's total polyethylene production was 66.42 tons, up 3.04% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 83.95%, up 1.86 percentage points. From September 26th to October 9th, the average start - up rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.24% compared with the previous period, and the agricultural film start - up rate increased by 2.75%. As of October 9th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 48.86 tons, up 27.67% from the previous period. As of September 30th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 38.27 tons, down 16.50%. From October 4th to 10th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 2.37% to 7414 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 172.86 yuan/ton to - 221 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.30% to 6564 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 14.29 yuan/ton to 570.29 yuan/ton [2]