在全球碳中和进程提速、光伏行业政策红利与技术迭代共振的大环境下，兼具长期成长确定性与板块景气度支撑的光伏资产或正成为 布局新能源核心赛道的投资人重要的配置方向。在此背景下，光伏ETF博时(560310)于2026年1月26日正式发售，为场内投资者提供一 键捕捉光伏产业链优质龙头标的的高效工具。 光伏ETF博时(560310)紧密跟踪光伏产业指数，中证光伏产业指数从主营业务涉及光伏产业链上、中、下游的上市公司证券中，选取不 超过50只最具代表性的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映光伏产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 值得关注的是，中证光伏产业指数自基日(2012年12月31日)至2026年1月13日期间涨幅为206.55%，同期沪深300指数和新能源指数涨幅 分别为91.97%、179.28%。 政策端，相关政策密集出台，从价格和产能两方面展开治理。价格方面，行业多次研讨标杆价机制，明确要求企业不得低于成本销 售，遏制低价无序竞争；产能方面，聚焦多晶硅环节推进治理，通过产能整合、强化能耗标准等举措，缓解行业供需失衡问题。 需求端，非欧美海外市场成为全球光伏需求主要增量来源，出海业务对行业需求的支撑作用持续凸显。同时， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental monitoring sector, such as Huicheng Environmental and GaoNeng Environment [6][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights the dual drivers of policy and demand in the environmental monitoring sector, indicating that leading companies will continue to benefit from recent regulatory changes [1][12]. - Recent government guidelines signal a shift in soil remediation practices, creating multiple growth opportunities in soil remediation and environmental consulting sectors [1][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend assets and growth-oriented companies in the current low macroeconomic interest rate environment [2][22]. Summary by Sections Investment Views - The report discusses the release of guidelines by three departments to enhance the connection between pollution site remediation and development, marking a transition in soil remediation practices [9][12]. - It also covers the introduction of differentiated management for air quality performance in key industries, which provides incentives for companies to transition towards greener practices [13][20]. - The report notes that institutional holdings and valuations in the environmental sector are at historical lows, suggesting a potential for sustained rebounds [22]. Market Performance - The environmental sector outperformed the broader market, with a reported increase of 4.72% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 0.84% increase [24]. - Sub-sectors such as monitoring (5.55%), energy saving (7.99%), and solid waste (5.67%) showed significant gains, indicating strong market interest [24]. Industry News - The report mentions the release of the 2026 version of hazardous waste management guidelines, aimed at improving the classification and management of solid waste [35]. - It also highlights the recognition of zero-carbon factories in Henan Province, showcasing advancements in energy efficiency and environmental standards [36]. Key Announcements - The report includes performance forecasts for various companies, indicating significant expected growth for Huicheng Environmental and GaoNeng Environment due to their strong project pipelines and technological advancements [22][23].

那么，为什么要建零碳工厂？这不仅是被动响应国家发起的号召和呼吁，也并非完成 一份订单或者实现一个生产指标那样简单，而是工业企业在面对越来越严苛的生态环 保约束和以"碳关税"之名的国际贸易壁垒时，履行社会责任和提升产业竞争力的必由 之 路 。 在 很 大 程 度 上 ， 含 " 绿 " 量 越 来 越 成 为 衡 量 工 业 产 品 含 " 金 " 量 的 重 要 标 准 。 含"绿"量越高，产品含"金"量乃至企业品牌价值也就越高。所以可以说，建设零碳工 厂，是符合时代潮流和国家战略的必然选择，也是工业企业实现可持续发展的必要举 措。 从技术层面讲，当智能制造主导的工业4.0遇上碳中和目标，工厂不仅在生产产品， 也在生产一种全新的发展模式。这不仅是技术的革新，更是一场关乎产业未来的认知 革命。它不仅能让工厂能像有"大脑"和"神经系统"一样，自主、灵活、高效地运行。 它提供的数字化、智能化能力，也正是工厂实现"零碳"目标的加速器。所以也可以 说，谁先融入这股先进潮流，就将先拥抱未来。 随着五部门联合印发《关于开展零碳工厂建设工作的指导意见》（以下简称《指导意 见》），标志着我国工业企业绿色低碳转型正式迎来量身定制 ...

Group 1 - The long-term trend in the steel industry is expected to be an increase in industry concentration and promotion of high-quality development [1] - Demand for steel is anticipated to gradually bottom out, with limited downward pressure; the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand has significantly weakened [1] - Steel demand from infrastructure and manufacturing sectors is expected to grow steadily [1] Group 2 - Approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating a prolonged period of micro-profitability in the industry [1] - Market-driven supply adjustments are beginning to occur, suggesting a gradual recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [1] - If supply policies are implemented, the contraction of industry supply may accelerate, leading to quicker progress in industry recovery [1] Group 3 - Under stricter environmental regulations and the context of ultra-low emissions and carbon neutrality, leading companies are expected to demonstrate enhanced competitive advantages and profitability [1] - The steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (930606), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the steel industry [1] - The index covers various sub-sectors, including general steel and special steel, capturing the cyclical characteristics and market dynamics of the steel industry [1]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 26 年 月 日 环保 政策驱动治理升级，环境监测潜能释放 政策与需求双轮动，环境监测龙头持续受益。1、三部门联合发布《关于 做好污染地块环境修复与开发建设衔接的指导意见》，标志着我国污 染地块治理从"单一修修复 向"单修复与开发同" 转型，为土壤修复行 业带来多重发展机遇。土壤修复、环境咨询等细分领域迎来增量空间。 其内容与环境监测领域相符合，产生对应利好。推荐关注环境监测细 分领域标的，如聚光科技等。2、三部门发布《关于加强重点行业大气 环境绩效分级管理的指导意见》，通过"单分级策策、优罚劣" 的差异 化机制，为企业绿色转型指明方向并提供激励，也为大气污染治理、环 保监测等领域带来发展机遇。推荐关注环境监测，大气治理细分领域 龙头企业，如聚光科技，龙净环保。 当周碳交易行情：本周（1.19-1.23）全国碳市场综合价格行情为：最高价 81.00 元/吨，最低价 73.00 元/吨，收盘价较上周五上涨 3.18%。本周挂 牌同议交易成交量 29.52 万吨，成交额 2289.70 万元；大宗同议交易成交 量 213.00 万吨，成交额 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to increased domestic conflicts over illegal immigration in the US [11][12]. - US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season, with increased volatility [16][17]. - Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback after a continuous sharp rise [20]. - The bond market is experiencing a short - term rebound, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. - The stock index long - position strategy should be continued [23][24]. - Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term as supply is at a high level and downstream restocking has ended [25][26]. - Steel prices are expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [31]. - Palm oil is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [35]. - The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [37][38]. - The domestic sugar market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term due to seasonal supply pressure and limited demand [42]. - Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [47]. - Copper prices are likely to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [51]. - Lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [53][54]. - Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [57]. - Lithium carbonate prices are likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and a bullish strategy is recommended with attention to position control and risk management [60][61]. - Tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of supply recovery expectations and consumption recovery [65]. - Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. - EU carbon prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. - Oil prices are expected to be supported by short - term geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions [71][72]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to see a mild recovery in processing fees around the Spring Festival [76]. - The container shipping index is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Europe is estimated to need $1 trillion to restructure its defense industry. The shooting of a US citizen by ICE has intensified domestic conflicts over illegal immigration, causing the dollar index to weaken. The Trump administration is expected to maintain a tough stance on illegal immigration, and market volatility will remain high. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [9][11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US in January was 56.4, reaching a five - month high. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The US economy shows resilience, and the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short - term. The market is worried about the Fed's independence, and US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season [13][14][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US is expected to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base on Greenland is located. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The New York Federal Reserve Bank conducted a "rate check" on the US dollar/yen exchange rate. Precious metals continued to rise strongly on Friday, reaching a new high. The market is trading on the safe - haven and de - dollarization needs caused by the tense situation between the US and Europe. The sharp rise of the yen and the fall of the dollar after the US and Japan jointly signaled to intervene in the foreign exchange market boosted the precious metals. However, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment and funds, and the risk is increasing. Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback [18][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 125 billion yuan, with a net investment of 38.3 billion yuan. The bond market continued to strengthen, mainly due to the alleviation of previous concerns. However, there are still long - term negative factors, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The CSRC issued a guidance on the performance comparison benchmark for public funds. Due to strong bullish expectations, funds flowed into small - cap stocks, causing market differentiation. The regulatory authorities are expected to take stricter and more precise measures to limit excessive speculation, and the market is likely to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to continue to hold the long - position strategy for the stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market remained stable. The supply in some areas increased slightly, while the downstream restocking ended, and the market sentiment declined. Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [25][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The global crude steel output in 2025 was 1.849 billion tons. In mid - January 2026, the daily output of key steel enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. Before the Spring Festival, steel prices are expected to be volatile and may rebound slightly. It is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [27][29][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The EU plans to gradually phase out soybean biofuels. The establishment of the Southeast Asian Sustainable Aviation Fuel Council. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased, and the estimated volume for the next week is higher. The palm oil market is supported by inventory reduction and Ramadan expectations, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [32][34][35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly soybean export sales reached the highest level of the year. The domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume increased, and it is expected to remain high. The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [36][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports increased. The sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil decreased in the second half of December. The domestic sugar market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [39][41][42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The import of Indian cotton yarn decreased, while the import of polyester - cotton blended yarn increased. The EU's clothing import rebounded in November 2025, and the import from China increased. The US cotton export signing reached a new high, but the export progress is still behind. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [43][44][47]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chilean contractor protests blocked access to mines. Tibet Julong Copper's second - phase project was put into operation. The Chilean Mining Association warned that it will take several years for copper supply to increase. The short - term macro factors support copper prices, but the fundamental factors may suppress price increases. Copper prices are likely to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [48][50][51]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount. The production of primary lead was stable, the profit of secondary lead refineries narrowed, and the consumption of lead batteries was weak. The social inventory increased, and lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [52][53][54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A gold mine in Mexico was temporarily shut down. The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and MMG's zinc ore output in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased. The zinc concentrate port inventory increased, the smelting profit improved slightly, and the demand was affected by multiple factors. Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [55][56][57]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The retail and wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in the first 18 days of January 2026 decreased year - on - year. Lithium carbonate prices rose sharply last week. The demand is strong, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a bullish strategy with attention to position control and risk management [58][60][61]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The first domestic satellite computing power module was launched. The LME tin spread was at a discount, and the inventory increased. The import of tin concentrate in December increased year - on - year. The supply is expected to increase in 2026, but there are uncertainties. The demand is weak, and tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term [62][63][65]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The port logistics of the Indonesian Qing Shan Industrial Park was suspected of monopoly. The nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is expected to be adjusted, and the global primary nickel gap is expected to be more than 100,000 metric tons. The raw material price rose, and the demand for nickel salt increased. Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of the EUA main contract decreased. The EU carbon price remained high and volatile last week. The CoT data helped boost the market. The carbon price is expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The production of a Kazakhstani oil field was delayed due to a power failure and export problems. The number of US oil rigs increased. The oil price rose on Friday, supported by the risk of supply disruptions and the increase in diesel cracking spreads [70][71][72]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories continued to rise. The polyester raw material price rose strongly, and the bottle - chip factory quotation increased. The market trading atmosphere was fair, and the downstream was cautious. The industry operating rate decreased, and the inventory pressure was transferred smoothly. The processing fee is expected to recover mildly around the Spring Festival [73][75][76]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Wildfires and rough seas restricted the operation of some ports in Chile. The short - term market is weak, and the European - line futures are expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to whether the index will be higher due to container dumping and late ship departures [77][78].

2026 年 1 月 26 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【策略】A 股牛市当前阶段形态特征六问六答——解密牛市系列之六 本轮牛市或已突破第二震荡段，进入上涨段 3。参考历史结构性牛市规律，本轮牛市 上涨段 3 初期或在 4200-4300 点形成阶段性高点，随后回调企稳于震荡段 2 上沿， 并重新开启新一轮上涨。后续需重点跟踪两点：一是 4200-4300 点区间压力释放与 资金承接情况；二是震荡段 2 上沿的支撑有效性及核心板块企稳信号。 【策略】保持稳健，持股过节——策略周专题（2026 年 1 月第 3 期） 保持稳健，持股过节。参考之前的市场行情，我们认为春节前市场将会保持震荡，难 以保持稳定的趋势，这主要与春节之前投资者交易热度有所下行，以及微观流动性短 期趋紧有关。从历史情况来看，春节前 20 个交易日，主要指数上涨概率不足 50%。 预计春节之后市场将会迎来新一轮上行动力，春节后 20 个交易日主要指数上行概率 与平均涨幅均较高。因此建议投资者近期以稳为主，但仍应持股过节。 【债券】如何看待近期 DR001 的上行？——2026 年 1 月 23 日利率债观察 如果一段时间内 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a dual drive of cyclical recovery and growth, with a focus on organic silicon, PTA, polyester filament, caprolactam, spandex, vitamins, sweeteners, refrigerants, and phosphorus chemicals [5][6] - The organic silicon industry is entering a recovery phase, driven by new applications in sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, with significant improvements in supply-demand dynamics expected [5][6] - The PTA/polyester filament industry is seeing a reduction in capacity expansion, leading to a new cycle of prosperity due to improved domestic and external demand [6] - The refrigerant market is entering a high prosperity cycle due to quota policies and stable demand growth from sectors like heat pumps and cold chain logistics [7] - The synthetic biology sector is poised for explosive growth as fossil-based materials face disruptive challenges, with a focus on energy efficiency and carbon tax costs [8] - OLED technology is rapidly penetrating various markets, supported by government policies aimed at fostering the new display industry [9] - The demand for high-frequency and low-loss electronic resins is increasing due to the rise of AI infrastructure and low-orbit satellite communications [10] - The electronic chemicals sector is benefiting from the expansion of wafer production capacity, with increasing demand for key materials in the semiconductor industry [11] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector ranked 4th in overall performance with a weekly increase of 7.29%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.45 percentage points [20][21] Key Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines for zero-carbon factory construction, aiming to establish a benchmark by 2027 across various industries [35] - The U.S. government plans to finalize the annual biofuel blending quota, maintaining high growth targets for the biofuel industry [35]

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges and strategies for ensuring stable electricity supply during winter, highlighting record electricity loads and the need for tailored solutions across provinces [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Winter Electricity Supply Challenges - In 2026, national electricity load reached a winter peak of 1.417 billion kilowatts, marking the first time it surpassed 1.4 billion kilowatts [1] - Winter electricity supply faces unique challenges compared to summer, including lower water storage for hydropower, adverse weather affecting wind and solar energy, and natural disasters like freezing conditions [1] Group 2: Provincial Strategies for Electricity Supply - Due to the vast geographical differences and varying energy resources across provinces, a "one province, one policy" approach is necessary for effective electricity supply management [2] Group 3: Confidence in Electricity Supply - The confidence in electricity supply stems from significant advancements in power generation capacity, a robust high-voltage transmission network, and improved local distribution networks [3] Group 4: Changes in Energy Structure - Coal power remains a dominant energy source in the short to medium term, despite a gradual decrease in its share, with projections indicating it will still account for over 60% of electricity generation for the foreseeable future [4] Group 5: Role of Electricity in AI Development - The importance of electricity is underscored in the context of AI development, as sufficient power supply is crucial for supporting AI technologies, especially in comparison to the current state of the U.S. power grid [5]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with an expectation of leading market benchmark returns by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector has emerged as one of the strongest market themes recently, with space photovoltaics being a core beneficiary [2]. - Recent catalysts in the commercial aerospace sector include the establishment of the Commercial Space Administration and the issuance of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Aerospace (2025-2027)" [2]. - Elon Musk's announcement at the 2026 Davos World Economic Forum regarding Tesla and SpaceX's plan to build a total of 200GW photovoltaic capacity in the U.S. over the next three years is a key driver for stock price increases in the sector [3]. - The transition from ground-based photovoltaic applications to space photovoltaics represents a significant shift in usage scenarios, driving technological evolution and capacity expansion [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing rapid development due to policy support, increasing demand for low-orbit satellite constellations, and capital market activity [2]. - The demand for space photovoltaics is expected to grow significantly as commercial aerospace scales up [2]. Technological Development - The technology path for space photovoltaics has evolved through several iterations, leading to advancements in gallium arsenide technology and the development of ultra-thin P-type HJT and perovskite tandem technologies [4]. Investment Recommendations - Companies that have strategically positioned themselves in the space photovoltaics sector, such as Junda Co., Dongfang Risheng, JinkoSolar, and Trina Solar, are expected to gain first-mover advantages and valuation premiums [5]. - Continuous growth in demand for new technology production equipment related to space photovoltaics suggests investment opportunities in companies like Maiwei Co., Jiejia Weichuang, Aotwei, and Shuangliang Energy [5].