Core Insights - The M&A market is experiencing a resurgence, with deal volume up 9% and deal value up 36% year-over-year, indicating a return of confidence among investors [4][5][9] - Technology remains the leading sector for M&A activity, accounting for about one-third of all deals, followed by oil and gas and life sciences [6][14] - The narrowing bid-ask gap is attributed to private equity firms needing to divest long-held assets and a decrease in the cost of capital, making deals more attractive [11][12][9] Mergers and Acquisitions Trends - The first half of 2025 showed fluctuating deal activity, but Q3 marked a significant recovery in the M&A market [4] - Regulatory bodies are perceived as more M&A friendly compared to previous administrations, contributing to the uptick in deal-making [6][17] - The forecast suggests continued growth in deal volumes through 2026, driven by moderated confidence and favorable capital market conditions [13][18] Market Performance - Major indices, including the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, reached record highs, reflecting strong market sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision [19][21] - Nvidia is nearing a market capitalization of $5 trillion, highlighting the dominance of large-cap tech stocks in the current market [20][21] - The S&P 500 is up 17% year-to-date, while the equal-weighted index shows a divergence, indicating a concentration of gains among larger companies [23][24] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a rate cut of approximately 100 basis points over the next 12 months, which is already factored into market valuations [5][34] - Concerns about the labor market and economic volatility are influencing CEO and CFO decision-making regarding M&A activity [12][35] - The potential impact of trade policies and election-year politics is being considered in deal valuations [12][17]

10月28日，伦敦现货黄金价格暴跌3.15%，收于每盎司3981.98美元，这是金价自突破4000美元大关后的连续大幅下跌。 仅仅一天之内，黄金市场市值蒸发 超过千亿美元，投资者纷纷抛售避险资产，转向风险更高的股市。 与此同时，科技巨头亚马逊传出消息，计划从10月29日开始裁减多达3万个企业岗位。 这将是该公司自2022年底裁员约2.7万人以来规模最大的一次人员调 整，约占其35万名企业员工的近10%。 虽然只占亚马逊全球155万员工总数的一小部分，但却是2020年以来科技行业最大规模的单次裁员行动。 黄金市场的剧烈波动与科技巨头的大规模裁员同时发生，并非偶然。 现货黄金在10月27日盘中一度跌破3970美元，最低触及3971.068美元，较上周创下的 4380美元历史高点下跌近10%。 这场抛售浪潮来得突然且猛烈，让许多追高黄金的投资者措手不及。 分析师指出，金价暴跌主要源于技术性回调需求。 自9月初以来，伦敦金价从3384美元/盎司一路飙升至4381美元/盎司，一个半月内涨幅超过1000美元，累 积了大量获利盘。 与黄金暴跌和科技裁员形成鲜明对比的是，美股市场却逆势上扬。 10月28日，美股三大指数全线收 ...

·美联储缩表临近尾声货币市场显现压力迹象 ·Allspring Global Investments：美联储前瞻指引或带有温和鹰派基调 ·贸易乐观情绪拖累金价避险买盘有所减少 【机构分析】 ·美联储本周或将结束为期三年的量化紧缩阶段，在货币市场资金过于紧张的担忧中缓解银行压力。本 月早些时候，部分银行贷款机构动用了联邦后备融资机制，其规模达到疫情期间的水平。政策制定者将 于周二就此展开讨论。自2022年6月启动量化紧缩计划以来，美联储已允许超过2万亿美元的美国国债和 抵押贷款支持证券从其资产负债表上滚出，导致融资条件趋紧。Evercore ISI副总裁Krishna Guha表 示："市场已基本达成共识，美联储将在本月结束量化紧缩。"美联储观察机构LH Meyer分析师Derek Tang指出："降息（叠加后续宽松预期）与提前停止缩表的双重行动，将对市场风险偏好形成显著支 撑。"他补充称，尽管本周是否终止缩表仍存变数，但近期融资市场紧缩状况使这一决策可能性显著提 升。 ·Renaissance Macro：美联储本周降息将被视为"低风险"举措 ·Metzler Asset Management：日本宽松的货币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The easing of global trade tensions has led to a decline in safe-haven assets like gold and silver, with U.S. stocks reaching new highs, while the market anticipates potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Lake Futures indicates that the easing of global trade tensions has reduced risk aversion, resulting in pressure on precious metals [1] - The liquidity in the London silver market has significantly improved, with silver leasing rates dropping from 35% to 4%, leading to increased selling pressure on silver [1] - Analysts from City Index and FOREX.com note that improved market sentiment regarding trade has diminished the demand for gold as a hedge, with a critical psychological level at $4000 per ounce [3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities suggests that gold is no longer a wise short-term investment due to high volatility and crowded trades, recommending a wait for lower entry points around $3800-$3900 per ounce for long-term positioning [2] - Capitalight's research indicates that the current decline in gold prices is a corrective sell-off rather than a structural downturn, maintaining a constructive long-term outlook for gold [3] - The potential for further declines in gold prices exists, but geopolitical factors, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and a weakening dollar are expected to provide medium to long-term support for gold prices [2][3]

Group 1 - Allianz Global Investors' Chief Investment Officer Michael Krautzberger anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the FOMC during the meeting on October 28-29, continuing its "insurance-style rate cut cycle" [1] - The policy rate is expected to decline to a more neutral level of 3.375% by mid-2026, with discussions on ending quantitative tightening expected to intensify [1] - The Fed's recent shift towards a more employment-focused policy response is influenced by unprecedented political pressure, with Powell describing the recent rate cut as a "risk management-style cut" [1][2] Group 2 - Powell indicated that the economic outlook has not changed significantly since the September meeting, but emphasized increasing downside risks to employment [2] - The upcoming inflation and labor market data will heavily influence the FOMC's decisions, with a potential for further rate cuts if significant surprises occur [2][3] - The Fed may end its balance sheet reduction by the first quarter of next year, with a possible announcement in October or December [3] Group 3 - The market has largely priced in the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut, and maintaining rates could lead to significant market volatility [3] - Any easing policy's impact will depend on market interpretation of the Fed's motivations, with a preference for a scenario where rate cuts are seen as preventative rather than politically driven [3][4] - There is a high risk of significant policy missteps, particularly if the Fed misjudges inflation driven by tariffs as merely a temporary supply shock [4]

2025.10. 28 本文字数：2960，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间10月28日（周二），为期两天的美联储议息会议在美国华盛顿特区正式召开。 外界普遍预计，美联储将再次降息25个基点，市场将关注美联储主席鲍威尔是否会释放未来进一步 宽松的信号。今年以来，特朗普政府多次公开施压希望降低利率，这使得鲍威尔面临巨大的政治压 力。与此同时，他还需应对美联储政策制定层内部的严重分歧。自9月美联储重启宽松以来，已有多 位政策制定者呼吁在宽松政策上保持谨慎。 两大职责面临数据迷雾 美国政府停摆进入第四周，这导致多项关键经济数据无法及时公布，美联储政策会议陷入信息迷雾。 目前政策制定者对 "哪些风险应优先关注" 存在分歧，而数据缺位无疑使这一局面雪上加霜。 当前宏观形势存在多重矛盾信号：通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标，企业纷纷预警未来物价将上涨； 招聘不温不火，就业市场面临需求考验；随着企业投资规模逐渐明晰，整体经济增长预期正被上调； 此外，明年新税法（包括小费和加班费收入免税条款）将增加家庭退税，可能为经济注入意外动力。 在物价问题上，关税依然是重大变量。美联储锚定的通胀指标 —— 个人消费支 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points during its two-day meeting, with market attention on Chairman Powell's signals for future easing amid political pressure and internal disagreements within the Fed [1][5]. Economic Data and Market Conditions - The U.S. government shutdown has led to delays in key economic data releases, creating uncertainty for the Fed's policy decisions. There are conflicting signals in the macroeconomic landscape, including inflation above the 2% target, weak hiring, and rising corporate investment expectations [2][3]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a key inflation measure for the Fed, has risen from 2.3% in April to 2.7% in August, indicating potential inflation risks [2]. Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Fed Governor Barr predicts core inflation will exceed 3% by year-end, with a return to the 2% target not expected until 2027, raising concerns about the adequacy of current monetary policy [3]. - Kansas City Fed President Schmid expresses hesitance towards further rate cuts due to inflation concerns, while the absence of non-farm payroll reports complicates labor market assessments [3][4]. Labor Market Insights - San Francisco Fed President Daly emphasizes the importance of monitoring the labor market, suggesting that without risk management measures, labor market weaknesses could worsen [4]. - Despite a slowdown in hiring, there are no widespread layoffs reported, and consumer spending remains resilient, although the government shutdown poses additional uncertainties [4]. Future Monetary Policy Outlook - While a rate cut is anticipated, internal divisions within the Fed may create uncertainty regarding future policy directions [5]. - Market expectations indicate a 90% probability of consecutive rate cuts in the remaining meetings of the year, with potential for 2-3 additional cuts next year [6]. Quantitative Tightening and Asset Purchases - The Fed may signal an end to its quantitative tightening (QT) policy, with discussions around halting the reduction of its balance sheet, which has decreased from over $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed could fully stop QT in the upcoming meeting, although the pace of reducing mortgage-backed securities may remain slow due to complex market conditions [10].

特朗普政府一直高调表达其希望降低利率的愿望，这让鲍威尔在应对美联储决策层内部的深度分歧的同 时，也承受着巨大的政治压力。 市场普遍预计，美联储将在本周继续降息25个基点，这旨在防止劳动力市场进一步放缓，且可能不是一 系列降息的终点。 持续攀升的初请失业金人数表明，劳动力市场需求持续降温。尽管政府关门导致了大多数官方经济数据 的发布延迟，包括失业率（8月份的最后估算值为4.3%）。 弱于预期的通胀数据，包括上周报告的消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨3%，已经让人们对关税驱动的 价格压力的担忧暂时搁置一旁。或许更重要的是，美联储在上月降息25个基点后，经由共识达成的会后 声明中包含了对政策利率进行"额外调整"的措辞。 摩根大通首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli写道："虽然委员会中的相当一部分成员可能希望暗示，不应 将12月份的宽松政策视为理所当然，但我们认为这种替代措辞的选择可能对领导层来说过于鹰派。" 当然，美联储主席鲍威尔不会在周四的会后新闻发布会上暗示12月的另一次降息已经是板上钉钉的事。 因为变数太多，全球贸易谈判仍在变化之中，这可能会重塑对物价乃至更广泛经济增长的前景预期。 而且，若政府关门结 ...

Market Overview - The market sentiment is optimistic, driven by potential trade deal announcements between the US and China, which has positively impacted both equity and commodity markets [2][4] - The S&P 500 may reach the 7,000 level by the end of the week, supported by the current market backdrop and upcoming earnings reports [3][6] Sector Performance - There is a noticeable rotation from defensive sectors to more risk-on segments, including communication services, technology, and financials, as the market anticipates a Federal Reserve meeting [7][8] - Small-cap stocks are also gaining traction, indicating a broader market rally [8] Trade Relations - Upcoming trade discussions between the US and China are crucial, with expectations of delayed tariff increases and potential increases in soybean purchases from China [12][13] - There are indications that China may delay export restrictions on critical minerals for at least one year, which could ease trade tensions [14][17] M&A Activity - Novartis is acquiring Avidity Biosciences for $12 billion, offering a 46% premium to shareholders, which will enhance Novartis's portfolio in rare diseases [18][19] - This acquisition reflects Novartis's commitment to investing in the US market amidst concerns over potential tariffs on the pharmaceutical sector [21]

Market Overview - The A-share market has seen a significant surge, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, peaking at 3999.07 points, just shy of the 4000-point mark [1] - The Asia-Pacific markets have collectively strengthened, with the Nikkei 225 index breaking the 50,000-point barrier for the first time in history, driven by optimism regarding the new Prime Minister's stimulus policies and positive trade negotiations involving the U.S. [3] Currency and Capital Flows - Recent data indicates a notable return of cross-border capital, with the State Administration of Foreign Exchange reporting a bank settlement and sales surplus of $51 billion (approximately 362.7 billion RMB) in September, the highest monthly level since December 2020 [4] - The surplus reflects a growing demand for converting foreign exchange into RMB, with September's bank settlement reaching $264.7 billion and sales at $213.6 billion, resulting in a significant surplus [4] - The shift in corporate behavior, with companies accelerating the sale of U.S. dollars in response to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, has contributed to this trend [6] Foreign Investment Sentiment - There is an increasing willingness among both domestic and foreign entities to hold RMB-denominated assets, as evidenced by a net inflow of $93.1 billion in foreign securities investment into China over the first three quarters, marking four consecutive quarters of net inflows [7][5] - The strong settlement surplus of $51 billion indicates rising optimism towards the RMB, with offshore RMB reaching its strongest level since November of the previous year [7][9] Upcoming Economic Events - The upcoming week is critical for global markets, with the Federal Reserve's meeting on October 30 expected to result in another 25 basis point rate cut [13] - The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank will also announce their interest rate decisions on the same day, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate hike from Japan and a hold from Europe [14] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's communications for signals regarding future rate adjustments and the potential end of quantitative tightening [16][17] Earnings Reports - The end of October will see a concentrated wave of earnings reports from major tech companies, including Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet, with Apple and Amazon following shortly after [18] - Analysts expect a profit growth of 16.6% for the "Tech Seven" this quarter, compared to 8.1% for other S&P 500 companies, indicating strong performance in the tech sector [19]