2025年09月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：下修非农就业 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：宏观情绪驱动，价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：需求边际改善，价格上涨 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：突破上行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼端矛盾并不凸显，关注矿端消息面风险 | 13 | | 不锈钢：长短线逻辑博弈，钢价或震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | 沪金2510 | 昨日收盘价 834.22 | 日涨幅 0.41% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 834.00 | 夜盘涨幅 0.39% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 黄金T+D Comex黄金2510 | 830.34 3680.70 | 0.51% 0.20% | 830.50 - | 0.12% | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3642 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the metal sector, particularly focusing on gold, silver, copper, tungsten, rare earths, and steel industries [1][3][5][6][7][8][10][12][14]. Key Points and Arguments Gold and Silver Market - **Gold Performance**: 中金黄金 (China National Gold) reported Q2 earnings exceeding expectations, with a quarterly profit of 1.6 to 1.7 billion yuan, showing over 60-70% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth. The company's profitability in the gold mining sector has significantly improved, making it an attractive investment opportunity [3][4]. - **Silver Market Dynamics**: Silver prices have surged due to its proposed inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list and tariff concerns, leading to increased demand in the U.S. market. 兴业银锡 (Xingye Silver Tin) is expected to become the largest silver and tin producer in China, with silver production projected to rise from 300 tons this year to over 900 tons by 2028 [1][4]. Copper and Tin Supply Issues - **Copper Supply Constraints**: The copper market is facing challenges due to an accident at Freeport's Indonesian mine and production cuts at Japanese smelters, leading to a projected negative growth in copper supply this year. Recommended companies include 金诚信 (Jinchengxin) and 洛阳钼业 (Luoyang Molybdenum), which are expected to benefit from increased copper production and rising prices of molybdenum and tungsten [5][6]. - **Tin Market**: The tin supply has also been disrupted, with actual increases falling short of expectations. The overall supply growth for tin is minimal, indicating potential upward price elasticity in the future [5]. Tungsten and Rare Earths - **Tungsten Market**: The tungsten market is experiencing tight supply, leading to price increases. 厦门钨业 (Xiamen Tungsten) is highlighted as a leading company with a continuous increase in tungsten concentrate supply [6]. - **Rare Earths Demand**: The demand for rare earths and magnetic materials is recovering, with expectations for continued price increases. Companies like 北方稀土 (Northern Rare Earth) and 包钢氧化钕 (Baogang Neodymium Oxide) are noted for their strong price increase potential [1][6]. Steel Industry Insights - **Steel Market Performance**: The steel sector is benefiting from anti-competitive policies and improved fundamentals, with Q1 and Q2 earnings showing positive trends. Major companies like 华菱钢铁 (Hualing Steel), 首钢股份 (Shougang), and 宝钢股份 (Baosteel) are highlighted for their low price-to-book ratios, indicating high value [2][7][8][10][11]. - **Future Price Trends**: Steel prices are expected to rebound as supply recovers and demand improves, particularly in the construction sector. The anticipated decrease in raw material costs in Q4 could further enhance profitability for steel companies [9][10]. Cobalt Market Developments - **Cobalt Price Surge**: Cobalt prices have risen significantly due to resource concentration and uncertainties in the Democratic Republic of Congo's policies. Companies like 华友钴业 (Huayou Cobalt) and 腾远钴业 (Tengyuan Cobalt) are positioned to benefit from these trends [14][19]. - **Cobalt Supply Constraints**: The production of cobalt salts has reached a five-year low, indicating a tight supply situation. The strategic importance of cobalt is underscored by the U.S. initiating a cobalt reserve plan [15][17]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the metal sector is optimistic, driven by macroeconomic factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, which are expected to bolster demand for precious metals and industrial metals alike [1][3][12]. - The focus on strategic resources and their valuation is likely to have long-term implications for the global supply-demand dynamics in the metal industry [18].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the upcoming interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is relatively straightforward this year, but may face complexities in 2026 due to loose financial conditions, fiscal stimulus, and AI-related risks [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate its first interest rate cut next week and continue to lower rates until the end of the year [3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that the current U.S. labor market is softening, with indicators such as unemployment rate and job vacancies showing a downward trend [4]. - Despite uncertainties in actual employment growth, the unemployment rate has already increased, prompting the Fed to normalize policy rates closer to neutral levels [4]. Group 2: Inflation and Asset Prices - As the policy rate approaches 3%, the Fed will face more complex decisions, especially if the labor market does not deteriorate sharply [5]. - The market is pricing in a dovish premium for the terminal rate during Trump's term, reflecting a lower probability of rate hikes [5]. - Since early June, the U.S. financial conditions index has eased by 75 basis points, with the stock market being the largest contributor [6]. Group 3: Economic Growth and AI Impact - Potential GDP is expanding at approximately 2.25%, with strong productivity growth offsetting negative impacts from reduced immigration [6]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates that as the effects of high tariffs diminish and fiscal policy becomes more expansionary, the U.S. economy will gradually accelerate back to potential growth levels by 2026 [6]. - The key question remains how much AI technology can elevate this growth figure [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has a 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut on September 18, with an 8% chance of a 50 basis point cut, indicating strong market expectations for easing monetary policy [1] - Commodity markets are experiencing volatility ahead of the rate cut, with precious metals performing well due to rising gold prices, while the renewable energy sector is facing emotional disturbances and has seen significant declines [1] - A special live broadcast titled "Before the Federal Reserve Decision - Commodity Market Trends During the Rate Cut Cycle" has been launched to help participants understand the linkage between macro events and futures market trends [1] Group 2 - The "Economic Grain Cup - National Futures Simulation Championship" is currently ongoing, organized by Daily Economic News and COFCO Futures, aimed at broadening participants' trading perspectives in the domestic commodity futures market [3] - Participants can enjoy various benefits such as exclusive discussion groups, professional reviews, and training opportunities, supported by a professional team with 5-14 years of experience in the industry [5] - Registration for the competition includes a gift of 1 million yuan in simulated capital, allowing participants to engage in risk-free trading with multiple rewards available through weekly and monthly competitions [6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate its first interest rate cut of the year next week, with a continued easing expected through the end of the year [1] - Goldman Sachs warns that while the upcoming rate cut cycle may be straightforward this year, complexities may arise in 2026 due to factors such as a shift to loose fiscal policy, dovish tendencies of the new Fed chair, and productivity gains driven by AI [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market is currently showing signs of softening, with a composite indicator reflecting unemployment rates, job vacancies, turnover rates, and survey data indicating a potential decline after a brief stabilization in late 2024/early 2025 [2] - Despite uncertainties in actual employment growth, the unemployment rate has already increased, prompting the Fed to normalize policy rates closer to neutral levels [2] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that inflation in labor-intensive sectors will gradually decline due to a weak labor market suppressing wage growth, even as core PCE may temporarily rise to 3.2% due to tariff impacts [2] Group 3 - As policy rates approach 3%, the Fed's decision-making will become more complex, with multiple intersecting factors at play unless there is a sharp deterioration in the labor market or signs of recession [3] - The financial conditions index in the U.S. has eased by 75 basis points since early June, with the stock market being the largest contributor [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. economy will gradually re-accelerate to potential growth levels by 2026, supported by reduced tariff drag and a shift to more expansionary fiscal policy, with AI technology playing a crucial role in determining growth levels [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market anticipates a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as the upcoming meeting approaches, with a focus on the performance of the 10-year Treasury yield as a key indicator of monetary policy easing and inflation expectations [1][2] - Morgan Stanley strategist Phil Camporeale indicates that the current labor market is in a "stagnation" state, which supports the case for lower federal funds rates to provide more "breathing space" for the job market [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield has slightly increased to 4.058%, which is crucial as it influences mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs; a rise in this yield could counteract the stimulative effects of lower short-term rates [1] Group 2: Inflation and Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's September consumer confidence preliminary survey shows a decline in consumer confidence, while long-term inflation expectations have risen to 3.9%, still below April's 4.4% [2] - The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, with core CPI increasing by 3.1% [2] - Pimco's Chief Investment Officer Mohit Mittal suggests that despite inflation being above the Fed's 2% target, the weakening labor market makes a rate cut a prudent move [2] Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Projections - CME FedWatch tool shows traders expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75% by year-end [3] - Mittal forecasts that U.S. inflation will decline to about 3% by the end of 2025 and further to 2.5% by the end of 2026, indicating confidence in the Fed's ability to manage inflation [3] - Camporeale predicts a 1% real GDP growth in 2025 and approximately 2% in 2026, suggesting that the Fed may continue to cut rates in a stable economic environment [3] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock market performance was mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 0.44% to reach a new all-time high, while the S&P 500 Index fell slightly by 0.05% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.59% [4] - All three major indices recorded weekly gains, with the S&P 500 Index just shy of its historical high set on Thursday [4]

Group 1 - The market is reacting to a significant increase in initial jobless claims, leading to a drop in yields despite CPI being close to expectations [2][4] - There is a focus on inflation data, with two-year and ten-year yields reaching higher highs, indicating a potential stagflation scenario [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points instead of 50, with market participants reassessing the aggressiveness of the easing cycle if inflation remains persistent [4][5] Group 2 - The reversal in yields suggests a double bottom formation, with a rejection of the 4% yield level, which is the lowest close of the year [4][5] - High-yield junk bonds are attracting investors as rate cuts are anticipated, with high yield ETFs closing at their highest level in approximately three and a half years [5]

Core Views - A wave of interest rate cuts is emerging globally, with central banks in multiple countries, including Peru and Turkey, announcing significant reductions in their benchmark rates, indicating a shift towards more accommodative monetary policies [1][6][10]. Group 1: Peru's Central Bank Actions - The Central Bank of Peru announced a 25 basis point cut in its benchmark interest rate, lowering it from 4.50% to 4.25%, aligning with the expectations of 8 out of 15 economists surveyed [3]. - The decision was influenced by a decrease in inflation pressure, with the overall inflation rate dropping from 1.7% in July to 1.1% in August, although this decline is considered temporary [3][4]. - The Central Bank expects the year-end inflation rate to approach the midpoint of its target range, with core inflation projected to remain around 2% [4]. Group 2: Turkey's Central Bank Actions - The Central Bank of Turkey reduced its benchmark interest rate by 250 basis points from 43% to 40.5%, exceeding market expectations of a 200 basis point cut [6][7]. - Despite a stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter, domestic demand remains weak, and inflationary pressures persist due to rising food prices and service costs [6][8]. - The Central Bank aims to stabilize inflation, with a medium-term target of reducing it to 5%, following a peak of 85.5% in October 2022 [6][8]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the release of the U.S. August CPI report, market consensus indicates that the Federal Reserve is likely to initiate a rate cut, with expectations of a cumulative reduction of 125 basis points over the next five FOMC meetings [10][11]. - The August CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly up from 2.7% in the previous month, while core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year [10][11]. - Analysts from Citigroup view the inflation report as encouraging for the Fed, suggesting that inflation risks are diminishing and the focus is shifting towards supporting economic growth [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses a wave of interest rate cuts initiated by various central banks, including the Federal Reserve, as they respond to recent economic data indicating easing inflation pressures [1][10] - The Central Bank of Peru announced a 25 basis point cut, lowering the benchmark rate from 4.50% to 4.25%, aligning with market expectations [3][4] - Turkey's Central Bank made a more aggressive move, cutting its benchmark rate by 250 basis points from 43% to 40.5%, exceeding market predictions [7][8] Group 2 - The Central Bank of Peru cited a decrease in inflation pressure as the primary reason for its rate cut, with overall inflation dropping from 1.7% in July to 1.1% in August [4][5] - Despite the positive indicators, the Central Bank of Peru warned of uncertainties in global economic growth due to international trade restrictions [5] - Turkey's Central Bank noted that while GDP growth exceeded expectations, domestic demand remains weak, and inflationary pressures persist from food prices and services [7][8] Group 3 - Following the release of the U.S. CPI report for August, which showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, market consensus shifted towards expecting a rate cut from the Federal Reserve [11][12] - Analysts from Citigroup predict that the Federal Reserve may implement a total of 125 basis points in cuts over the next five FOMC meetings, potentially lowering the policy rate below 3% [13][14] - The article highlights that the inflation data suggests limited pass-through effects from tariffs to consumer prices, indicating a more stable inflation outlook [14]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain the deposit facility rate at 2%, reflecting confidence in the Eurozone's ability to withstand external pressures such as U.S. tariffs and political instability in France [1] Interest Rates - ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel strongly opposes further rate cuts, citing potential inflationary pressures from trade tariffs and increased fiscal spending [2] - Other officials express a lack of urgency for further action, with some suggesting a wait-and-see approach to economic data [2] - Market expectations indicate a less than one-third chance of another rate cut this year, although some officials hint at the possibility of a rate cut in December due to geopolitical uncertainties and a strong euro [2][3] Economic Outlook - New economic forecasts from the ECB may show gradual economic recovery, with medium-term inflation expected to reach target levels [4] - Despite facing higher tariffs and the negative impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Eurozone economy remains resilient, with business activity expanding and German business confidence at its highest since 2022 [4] - However, signs of weakness are also present, with low investment and private consumption in the second quarter, and inflation slightly above target at 2.1% [4] France's Economic Situation - France remains a significant source of uncertainty for the Eurozone due to its public finances [5] - The resignation of Prime Minister François Bayrou and the appointment of Sébastien Lecornu as his successor highlight the challenges in managing the largest deficit in the Eurozone [6] - The instability in France leads to higher borrowing costs compared to lower-rated Italy, and market participants will closely monitor ECB President Lagarde's comments on the situation [6]