Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies aimed at strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand, while also focusing on the development of the real economy and the construction of a unified national market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - The NDRC plans to formulate a strategic implementation plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, aligning with the trends of demand upgrades and technological revolutions [1]. - The focus will be on enhancing the quality of key industries and fostering emerging and future industries, particularly through initiatives like "Artificial Intelligence+" [1]. - The NDRC aims to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, with a key goal of promoting reasonable price recovery [2]. Group 2: Market Regulation and Competition - The NDRC intends to address "involution" competition by shifting from price competition to value competition, improving market access, and enhancing fair competition mechanisms [2]. - There will be a focus on regulating key industry prices and ensuring a healthy market order through the implementation of quality brand strategies [2]. - The NDRC plans to establish a national unified market construction regulation to standardize behaviors of local governments and enterprises [3]. Group 3: Energy Transition and Carbon Neutrality - The NDRC emphasizes the acceleration of energy transition by increasing the development of non-fossil energy and enhancing the capacity of the power grid [4]. - There will be a strong push for industrial upgrades towards green and low-carbon industries, including the promotion of zero-carbon parks and factories [4]. - The NDRC will implement comprehensive resource management and promote a circular economy to support carbon peak and neutrality goals [4]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The NDRC forecasts a continuous improvement in economic structure and development momentum, with significant potential in consumption, investment, technology, and regional development [5]. - The focus will be on combining policy support with reform and innovation to transform development potential into new economic growth [5].

021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2025 年 1 月 21 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 数据来源：上期所网站，建信期货研究发展部 1 月 20 日，螺纹钢、热卷期货主力合约 2605 连续第 2 个交易日震荡下滑。 | | 表2：1月20日黑色系期货持仓情况（单位：手、%） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前 20 多头 持仓 | 前 20 空头 持仓 | 前 20 多头 持仓变化 | 前 20 空头 持仓变化 | 多空 对比 | 偏离度 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, and the full - year growth target of 5% was achieved, meeting market expectations. The market will discuss the economic growth expectations for 2026 and the Two Sessions' target settings. For the bond market, the central bank's attitude is the key factor in 2026, and a total interest - rate cut is expected in Q2 [27]. - The central bank's resumption of bond - buying may be a long - term consideration, and the continuity of bond - buying is high. In 2026, the imbalance between supply and demand in the bond market needs attention, with the core being demand. The bond market still needs to consider the impacts of "imbalance between supply and demand, expectations of rising prices, and re - balancing of asset allocation due to capital diversion" [28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In December 2025, GDP at constant prices had a quarterly - on - quarterly growth of 4.5%, lower than the previous quarter's 4.8% and the same period last year's 5.4% [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, up from 49.8% in the previous month and the same as the same period last year [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in December 2025 was 50.2%, up from 50.0% in the previous month but lower than 52.2% in the same period last year [1]. - The monthly value of social financing scale in December 2025 was 2207.5 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month and 2853.7 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - Various monetary indicators such as M0, M1, M2, and new RMB loans also showed different trends in December 2025 compared with the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - CPI in December 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 0.8%, up from - 0.3% in the previous month and 0.1% in the same period last year; PPI was - 1.9%, up from - 2.3% in the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment completion in December 2025 was - 3.8%, down from - 0.5% in the previous month and 3.2% in the same period last year [1]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 was 3.7%, down from 4.5% in the previous month but up from 3.5% in the same period last year [1]. - The year - on - year growth of export and import amounts in December 2025 was 6.60% and 5.70% respectively, down from 8.20% and 7.40% in the previous month and 10.67% and 0.84% in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The National Development and Reform Commission is planning major high - tech projects for the 15th Five - Year Plan period, formulating an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030, and considering setting up a national - level merger and acquisition fund. It will also promote the expansion and quality improvement of the service industry [2]. - The LPR in January 2026 remained unchanged for the 8th consecutive month, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% [2]. - Shanghai introduced 18 measures to enhance the influence of non - ferrous metal commodities and global pricing, including supporting settlement through the Commodity Clearing Link and opening up futures and options varieties [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratios and price limit ranges for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures contracts [3]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center adjusted the trading margin ratios and price limit ranges for international copper futures contracts [4]. - On January 20, 37 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 32 had negative basis, with significant differences in basis among different varieties [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - On the morning of January 21, New York gold futures exceeded $4780 per ounce, and domestic gold jewelry prices also increased, with some brands' pure gold prices exceeding 1450 yuan per gram [5]. - "Investment copper bars" have become popular recently, with a 1000 - gram copper bar costing 180 - 288 yuan in Shenzhen Shuibei Market [5]. - The Polish central bank approved a plan to buy up to 150 tons of gold, increasing its gold reserves to 700 tons [5]. - On January 19, the inventories of lead, tin, zinc, and copper in the London Metal Exchange reached new highs, while the inventories of cobalt and aluminum reached new lows [6]. - As of January 20, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 0.37%, or 4.01 tons, to 1081.66 tons [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, Shanxi produced 65 billion tons of coal, with an output of over 13 billion tons in 2025, an increase of 19 billion tons compared with the 13th Five - Year Plan [8]. - The first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived in China on January 17, enhancing global iron ore supply [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 85 yuan per ton from January 20, 24:00, due to rising international oil prices [9]. - The US government obtained 50 million barrels of oil from Venezuela and sold part of it on the open market [9]. - Venezuela officially launched the export of liquefied petroleum gas [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Brazil's corn and soybean exports in January 2026 are expected to be 3.45 million tons and 3.79 million tons respectively, higher than the previous week's forecasts, while soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.82 million tons, the same as the previous week [10]. - As of January 15, the EU's soft wheat exports in the 2025/26 season were 11.8 million tons, slightly lower than the same period last year [10]. - The US export inspection volumes of soybeans, wheat, and corn were 1,336,684 tons, 392,611 tons, and 1,483,622 tons respectively [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 20, the central bank conducted 324 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan due to 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities [12]. 3.3.2 Key News - A package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination was introduced, including a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment and loan interest - subsidy policies for small and medium - sized enterprises [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that in 2026, macro - policies will focus on strengthening the domestic cycle, expanding domestic demand, and promoting high - tech projects [13]. - The Ministry of Finance said that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, debt scale, and expenditure will remain at necessary levels, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will continue to be issued [14]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development introduced measures to support urban renewal [15]. - The preferential tax policies for community - based family services such as elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping were extended from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [16]. - The latest LPR remained unchanged for the 8th consecutive month since May 2025, and experts believe that the stable macro - economy is the main reason [17]. - Beijing's 2026 construction land supply plan was announced, with specific land allocations for commercial and affordable housing and a focus on urban renewal [18]. - Guangzhou is promoting legislation for the renewal of state - owned land housing, with a planned fixed - asset investment of 120 billion yuan for urban village renovation in 2026 [18]. - The Greenland crisis and fiscal pressure concerns led to a global bond market sell - off, with significant fluctuations in Japanese and US bond yields [18]. - The Japanese Finance Minister tried to calm the bond market, emphasizing the responsibility and sustainability of fiscal policies [18]. - All Japanese central bank observers predict that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged on Friday, and the government may intervene in the foreign exchange market if the yen depreciates [19]. - There were several bond - related events, including payment due dates and corporate management changes [19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market showed positive trends, with falling yields on spot bonds and rising prices of bond futures. The money market was generally stable, but the DR001 rate increased due to the tax period [20]. - The exchange - traded bond market had different performances among different bond types, with some bonds rising and some falling [21]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index both declined, with significant differences in individual bond performances [22]. - Most money market interest rates and Shibor short - term rates increased [22]. - Bank - to - bank repurchase fixed - rate and silver - bank repurchase fixed - rate also showed upward trends [23]. - The winning bid yields and multiples of financial bonds issued by the Agricultural Development Bank and the National Development and Reform Commission were announced [23][24]. - European and US bond yields generally increased [24][25]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 33 basis points to 6.9603 at 16:30, and the central parity rate rose 45 basis points to 7.0006 [26]. - At the New York close, the US dollar index fell 0.50% to 98.55, and most non - US currencies rose [26]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the central bank's attitude is crucial for the 2026 bond market, and a total interest - rate cut is expected in Q2 [27]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Fixed - Income believes that the central bank's bond - buying is likely to be continuous, and in 2026, attention should be paid to the imbalance between supply and demand in the bond market, with the interest rate level expected to be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [28]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - On Tuesday, the A - share market adjusted, with a style shift from high - valuation growth sectors to value sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01%, and the trading volume increased [30]. - The Hong Kong stock market continued to adjust, with technology stocks leading the decline and real - estate stocks rising. Southbound funds had a net purchase of nearly HK$3.7 billion [31]. - As of January 20, over 500 A - share companies had disclosed 2025 performance forecasts, with about 200 expecting growth and over 100 expecting a net profit increase of over 100%. However, some sectors such as photovoltaic, liquor, and pig farming faced performance pressure [31]. 3.5 Today's Reminders - On January 21, 230 bonds will be listed, 122 bonds will be issued, 82 bonds will be settled, and 207 bonds will pay principal and interest [29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the announcement of the "Two New Policies" for 2026, focusing on optimizing fund allocation for consumer goods trade-in programs [1] - The plan includes implementing a unified subsidy standard nationwide for automobile scrapping and replacement, as well as for six categories of home appliances and four categories of digital and smart products [1] - The establishment of a national-level merger and acquisition fund is under consideration, along with the development of regulations for a unified national market [1] Group 2 - The article mentions the formulation of a strategic implementation plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [1] - It also discusses the planning and promotion of significant engineering projects in high-tech industries during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 20, most equity index futures declined, most CGB futures rose, and most commodities increased, with Lithium Carbonate, Silver, and Tin leading the gains [10][11][12]. - The price of Lithium Carbonate is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to bargain - hunting long opportunities driven by sentiment fluctuations [37][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On January 20, in equity index futures, IC dropped 1.0% and IH dropped 0.5%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.52% and T rose 0.13%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Lithium Carbonate (up 9.0% with 1.0% month - on - month open interest increase), Silver (up 3.6% with 3.7% month - on - month open interest decrease), and Tin (up 3.1% with 9.7% month - on - month open interest decrease). The top three decliners were Coking Coal (down 4.5% with 6.0% month - on - month open interest increase), Coke (down 3.5% with 2.1% month - on - month open interest increase), and Glass (down 3.1% with 0.5% month - on - month open interest decrease) [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Drop - **Coking Coal**: On January 20, it fell 4.5% to 1,124 yuan/ton. Supply is stable after the resumption of production in major coal - producing areas, and Mongolia coal imports have rebounded. Coke output has edged down, but coking enterprises' winter stockpiling has depleted upstream mine inventories. However, mid - and downstream enterprises have completed winter stockpiling, cooling the spot market [18][20][21]. - **Coke**: On January 20, it dropped 3.5% to 1,673 yuan/ton. The first - round price increase application by coking enterprises has not been responded to by steel mills, and the coking industry's losses are deepening. Steel mills' hot metal output has slightly declined, but their inventories are increasing steadily. Coking enterprises' shipments have improved [26][27][28]. 3.1.3 Daily Raise - **Lithium Carbonate**: On January 20, it rose 9.0% to 160,500 yuan/ton. The market trend is dominated by capital sentiment and policy changes. The adjustment of export tax rebate policies has strengthened short - term demand expectations. There are risks of phased disruptions to supply, and the marginal demand has weakened slightly but with good long - term expectations. Inventory has shifted from de - stocking to accumulation. Overall, the price is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern [33][34][36]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The NDRC will implement a more pro - active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, with price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy. The MOF stated that in 2026, the fiscal expenditure intensity will be maintained at an increasing level, and in 2025, the newly - added government debt scale reached 11.86 trillion yuan, a year - on - year rise of 2.9 trillion yuan [43][44][45]. 3.2.2 Industry News - The NDRC will research and formulate regulations for the development of a unified national market and release three key lists to clarify local governments' actions in promoting economic development [48].

1月20日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，邀请国家发展改革委有关负责同志围绕"落实中央经济工作会 议精神，推动'十五五'实现良好开局"介绍有关情况。 加快打造形成全球科技创新高地和新兴产业重要策源地 1月19日，2025年中国经济成绩单发布。"成绩来之不易，彰显我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能 大的特征。"国家发展改革委国民经济综合司司长周陈认为，展望2026年，经济结构将持续向优、发展 动能持续向新、整体发展态势持续向好。 新技术新产品新场景蔚然成势。新能源、新材料、航空航天、量子科技、生物制造、具身智能等新的经 济增长点蓄势待发，新型储能装机规模超1亿千瓦、占全球比重超40%。人工智能加速从数字世界走向 物理世界，将带动高端制造、新兴消费、新业态新模式爆发式增长。2025年，高技术制造业增加值占规 模以上工业增加值比重超17%。一批"十五五"时期的高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程正在谋划推进。 创新链产业链人才链加速融合。我国有完整的产业体系，有14亿多人口的超大规模市场，也有全球规模 最宏大、门类最齐全的人才资源，科学、技术、工程和数学专业毕业生每年超500万人，具备将创新成 果从"书架"推上"货架"的 ...

时光为笔，2025年在中国经济的年轮上刻下了又一圈坚实印记。 风雨多经志弥坚。这一年，全球经济增长动能不足，贸易保护主义思潮涌动，外部环境的复杂严峻程度 有增无减；国内有效需求不足等周期性、结构性矛盾交织，改革发展稳定任务艰巨。重重压力之下，中 国经济展现出超乎预期的韧性，不仅实现了量的合理增长，更在质的有效提升上迈出了坚实步伐， 为"十四五"收官画上圆满句号，也为"十五五"良好开局打下坚实基础。 以数观形，以数察势。透视2025年中国经济，"稳""韧""新""活"是4个重要的观察维度。 "稳"，是不确定环境里的稀缺资源 2025年，"十四五"规划圆满收官。习近平主席在2026年新年贺词中指出，"5年来，我们踔厉奋发、勇毅 前行，克服重重困难挑战，圆满完成目标任务，在中国式现代化新征程上迈出了稳健步伐"。 大国经济，稳是根基。观察经济运行稳不稳，经济增长、就业、物价和国际收支四大宏观指标最具说服 力。 从经济增长看，"十四五"时期我国经济总量连续跨过110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元台阶，2025年 突破140万亿元，同比增长5%，经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现。 从就业、物价看，2025年城镇新增就 ...

◎记者 于祥明 国家发展改革委1月20日在国新办新闻发布会上透露了扩内需、优供给和反内卷等一揽子存量和增量政 策，传递出推动经济增长和物价回升良性互动的重要信号。 同时，要发挥好国家创业投资基金行业标杆作用，研究设立国家级并购基金，加强政府投资基金布局规 划和投向指导，促进创新创业创造，加快培育和发展新质生产力。 王昌林表示，综合整治"内卷式"竞争，实现从卷价格向优价值转变。要完善市场准入、公平竞争、产能 退出等机制，加强产能调控，积极化解供大于求的阶段性矛盾。进一步细化地方招商引资鼓励和禁止事 项边界，规范地方经济促进行为。加强重点行业价格监管，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，形成优质 优价、良性竞争的市场秩序。大力实施质量品牌战略，引导破解"内卷式"竞争。 国家发展改革委副主任王昌林表示，只要充分挖掘经济潜能，着力推进改革创新，持续苦练内功，完全 有信心、有能力、有条件、有底气推动"十五五"开好局、起好步。 "市场本身就是稀缺资源，超大规模市场本身就是巨大的潜能和强大的动能。"国家发展改革委国民经济 综合司司长周陈表示，展望2026年，我国经济结构将持续向"优"、发展动能持续向"新"、整体发展态势 持续向" ...

昨天，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍落实中央经济工作会议精神，推动"十五五"实现良好开 局有关情况。对中国经济运行中存在的供强需弱矛盾，国家发展改革委副主任王昌林表示，将把宏观政 策的发力点放在做强国内大循环上，全方位扩大国内需求，研究制定出台2026—2030年扩大内需战略实 施方案。 同时，还要坚持把市场运行的调控点放在纵深推进全国统一大市场建设上，充分激发市场活力。重点是 要综合整治"内卷式"竞争，实现从"卷价格"向优价值转变。完善市场准入、公平竞争、产能退出等机 制，加强产能调控，积极化解供大于求的阶段性矛盾。进一步细化地方招商引资鼓励和禁止事项边界， 规范地方经济促进行为。加强重点行业价格监管，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，形成优质优价、良 性竞争的市场秩序。大力实施质量品牌战略，引导破解"内卷式"竞争。 文/本报记者 董鑫 统筹/刘晓雪 王昌林表示，当前，中国经济发展中需求不足的问题较为突出，同时也存在供给不充分的问题。必须扩 大内需、优化供给，推动供需在更高水平上实现动态平衡和良性循环，促进形成更多由内需主导、消费 拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。 坚持把宏观政策的发力点放在做强国内大循环上 ...

证券时报记者 韩忠楠 1月20日上午，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍落实中央经济工作会议精神，推动"十五五"实现良好开局有关情况。 发布会全面回顾2025年经济发展成效，介绍2026年重点工作，从稳增长、挖潜能、促改革多维度发力，为"十五 五"开局之年的经济高质量发展筑牢根基。 围绕社会各界关注的物价问题，国家发展改革委副主任王昌林表示，将会同相关部门打好政策"组合拳"，把促进 物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。同时，今年还将研究制定出台2026—2030年扩大内需战略实施方案。 经济实力跃上新台阶 面对复杂多变的国内外形势，2025年全国上下迎难而上、奋力拼搏，经济社会发展主要目标顺利完成，"十四 五"圆满收官。王昌林指出，过去一年经济运行稳中有进，发展韧性持续彰显，核心成效体现在多方面。 宏观政策精准发力，经济实力再上新台阶。通过加强超常规逆周期调节，接续实施稳增长系列举措，全年经济总 量迈过140万亿元大关，5%的增速在全球主要经济体中保持前列，增量相当于一个中等规模经济体总量。创新驱 动纵深推进，新质生产力加速崛起，人工智能、生物医药等领域研发应用走在世界前列，制造业增加值连续16年 位居全球第一。 改 ...