Core Insights - The report highlights the significant role of multinational companies in China's economy, emphasizing their contributions to the development of an open economy, modern industrial system, and regional coordination [1] - It identifies the advantages of the Chinese market, including certainty, safety, openness, scale, convenience, growth potential, and profitability, making it an attractive investment destination for multinational companies [1] - The report suggests that multinational companies should reassess their global positioning in the Chinese market and optimize their investment strategies from a long-term perspective [1] Group 1 - Multinational companies can leverage China's policy guidance, open scenarios, and factor restructuring to transition from traditional industries to emerging fields, achieving goals of "leapfrogging" and "renewing existing stock" [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of deep integration into China's regional strategies and utilizing local advantages to enhance global competitiveness [2] - Companies are encouraged to adopt a "localized innovation + supply chain collaboration" model to improve their position in the global value chain [2] Group 2 - The report outlines that multinational companies can act as "ecological co-builders" in China's modernization efforts, sharing commercial value and sustainable development responsibilities [3] - It suggests various investment paths, including equity investment, venture capital, and patient capital, to participate deeply in the Chinese market and share long-term development dividends [3] - Companies are advised to collaborate with local venture capital institutions to establish venture capital funds, providing financial support to promising startups [3]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of lumber futures is becoming a new tool for companies to mitigate market risks, promoting the standardization and development of the industry, and advancing the construction of a unified national market [1][6]. Industry Status: From "Profitable" to "Break-even" - The average monthly import volume at Lianyungang Port has decreased from 600,000 cubic meters in 2021 to around 300,000 cubic meters this year [2]. - Companies are experiencing significant declines in purchasing volumes, with some reporting a drop of over 50% in ship purchases, from about 8 ships per month to 2-3 ships [2]. - Profit margins in the lumber industry have drastically reduced, with companies now aiming to break even rather than making profits [2]. Shift in Production and Strategy - Companies are adjusting their production focus, reducing traditional product lines and increasing the production of packaging pallets and other products [3]. - The production capacity of some companies has decreased significantly, with annual output dropping from 1.5 million cubic meters to 400,000 cubic meters [3]. Empowerment through Futures Tools - The launch of lumber futures has enabled companies to actively manage price risks, transitioning from a passive to an active defense strategy [4]. - Companies like Fuhan Wood Industry are forming specialized teams to utilize financial tools for reducing price volatility risks [4]. New Ecosystem Supporting Unified National Market Construction - The futures market is seen as a means to establish a unified pricing system across the country, which is crucial for standardizing trade practices [6]. - The introduction of national standards for lumber measurement is expected to reduce discrepancies and disputes in trade, facilitating smoother transactions [6][7]. - Companies are increasingly adopting digital measurement technologies to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of lumber inspections [6][7]. Conclusion - The lumber industry is undergoing a profound structural adjustment, with many companies moving towards a new model that combines futures and spot trading [6]. - The establishment of a transparent and efficient national market is emerging, driven by the integration of futures trading into traditional lumber business practices [7].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law in China establishes a legal foundation for fair competition and aims to enhance the development environment for private enterprises, which are crucial for high-quality economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Environment and Regulations - As of January 2025, the number of private enterprises in China reached 56.707 million, a 5.2 times increase since 2012 [1]. - The number of national high-tech enterprises increased from 28,000 in 2012 to over 420,000, with the proportion of private enterprises rising from 62.4% to over 92% [1]. - Recent policies, including the Market Access Negative List (2025 Edition), aim to reduce entry barriers by decreasing the number of restricted items from 117 to 106 [2]. Group 2: Fair Competition and Policy Implementation - The Private Economy Promotion Law consolidates successful practices and institutional innovations to provide more certainty for enterprise development and boost business confidence [2]. - To ensure fair competition, it is essential to implement a unified market access negative list and regularly evaluate and eliminate policies that hinder fair competition [2][3]. - The establishment of a high-quality law enforcement team is necessary to avoid issues like arbitrary enforcement, which can undermine the effectiveness of the Private Economy Promotion Law [3]. Group 3: Supporting Mechanisms and Future Directions - Several supporting regulations have been introduced, including the Fair Competition Review Regulations and the Payment Guarantee for Small and Medium Enterprises, to ensure the effective implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law [3]. - Local governments are encouraged to adapt and enhance relevant supporting mechanisms based on local conditions to ensure compliance with the law [3].

Group 1: Government Investment Fund Regulations - Gansu Province has issued guidelines to strictly control the establishment of government investment funds, emphasizing that these funds should not be set up for the purpose of attracting investment [2][3] - The guidelines promote the optimization and integration of existing funds, with a focus on unified management and avoiding duplication in the same industry or sector [2][3] - The policy reflects a shift from broad capital attraction to a focus on operational efficiency and quality in industry cultivation, aiming to leverage government investment funds for better industry guidance [3] Group 2: Private Equity Market Developments - Goldman Sachs Asset Management is seeking to raise over $14.2 billion for its new S Fund, indicating strong interest in the secondary private equity market [4] - The secondary market is expected to see a total trading volume of $185 billion by 2025, driven by liquidity challenges faced by many limited partners (LPs) [4] - Major firms like Blackstone and Carlyle are also actively engaging in the secondary market, highlighting its importance as an exit channel for private equity investments [4] Group 3: Venture Capital Innovations - Junlian Capital has launched Beijing's first technology innovation bond with a registered scale of 500 million yuan, aimed at supporting long-term investments in technology [5][6] - The introduction of the "technology board" in the bond market is expected to enhance funding channels for venture capital institutions, facilitating investments in early-stage and hard technology [5][6] - The successful issuance of technology innovation bonds by firms like Dongfang Fuhai indicates a growing trend in financing for venture capital institutions [6] Group 4: Corporate Investments - Zhongwei Company announced its participation in establishing a private equity fund with a target size of 1.5 billion yuan, focusing on the semiconductor and related strategic emerging sectors [7] - The fund plans to allocate over 80% of its investments to upstream and downstream enterprises in the integrated circuit industry, aligning with Zhongwei's core business [7] - This focused investment strategy aims to strengthen the supply chain and capture emerging technology trends while minimizing cross-industry risks [7] Group 5: AI and Biotechnology Investments - Insilico Medicine has completed a Series E financing round, raising approximately $123 million, reflecting strong investor interest in the AI-driven biopharmaceutical sector [8][9] - The investment highlights China's competitive edge in AI drug development, with local government and investment platforms strategically positioning themselves in this hard technology field [8][9] - The funding will support Insilico's efforts in drug discovery across various therapeutic areas, showcasing the integration of AI and automation in pharmaceutical innovation [8][9] Group 6: Smart Manufacturing Investments - Xiaomi has invested in Danikel Automation Technology, setting a record for single financing in the automatic feeding and intelligent tightening sector [9] - This investment is part of Xiaomi's broader strategy to deepen its involvement in smart manufacturing, providing technological synergies for its automotive business [9] - The record-breaking financing reflects strong market expectations for domestic high-end equipment replacement opportunities [9] Group 7: AI Infrastructure Investments - Alibaba Cloud has led a multi-million yuan Series A financing round for SiliconFlow, a company focused on general artificial intelligence infrastructure [10][11] - SiliconFlow aims to address high AI computing costs with innovative technologies, positioning itself as a key player in the AI industry [10][11] - The investment underscores the growing competition in AI infrastructure and the strategic importance of companies that can reduce AI deployment costs for enterprises [10][11]

《意见》进一步落实了二十届三中全会在城镇化和民生领域的改革部署 。核心思想是通过结构性改 革，推动基本公共服务与户籍脱钩、与人口挂钩，促进政府增加对基本公共服务的投入，减轻消费潜力 最大的中低收入群体，尤其是灵活就业人员、农民工、新就业形态人员在养老、教育、医疗、住房等领 域的负担，提升其消费能力和意愿。 外部环境相对缓和之后，政策转向更加关注长期目标和高质量发展，改革有望再提速。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 近期改革信号释放加快，反映出外部环境相对缓和后，政策转向更加关注长期目标和高质量发展，改革 进程有望再提速。 6月9日中办、国办印发《关于进一步保障和改善民生 着力解决群众急难愁盼的意见》（下文简 称"《意见》）。 值得注意的是， 《意见》的成文时间为3月2日，但公布时间为6月9日 ，可能是因 为4-5月的关税密集冲击造成外部不确定性上升，延缓了落实深化改革的政策节奏。 除《意见》外，近期在消费政策方面，更强调完善促消费的长效机制。 6月8日经济日报《金观平：持 续完善促消费长效机制》中提到，"要用好考核'指挥棒'，建立完善科学合理的考核指标体系，引导地 方政府和领导干部树立以促消费为导向的政绩观 ...

基本内容 6 月 9 日中办、国办印发《关于进一步保障和改善民生 着力解决群众急难愁盼的意见》，进一步落实了二十届三中全 会在城镇化和民生领域的改革部署：一是基本公共服务与户籍解绑；二是明确基本公共服务与人口挂钩；三是增加基 本公共服务供给和均衡性。 消费方面，更加强调完善促消费的长效机制。6 月 8 日经济日报《金观平：持续完善促消费长效机制》中提到，"要用 好考核'指挥棒'，建立完善科学合理的考核指标体系，引导地方政府和领导干部树立以促消费为导向的政绩观，加 大消费基础设施投入，优化消费环境，增强补贴力度，压实地方政府促消费责任"。 房地产方面，近期也有土地改革试点的举措。6 月 12 日《广州市提振消费专项行动实施方案(征求意见稿)》提出， "研究推动通过出租、入股、合作等方式盘活利用农村集体闲置土地和农户合法拥有的住房"。通过推动城乡之间人 员土地资金等生产要素双向顺畅流动，也是完善消费长效机制的重要领域。 近期改革信号释放加快，反映出外部环境相对缓和之后，政策转向更加关注长期目标和高质量发展，改革进程有望再 提速。 风险提示 改革的节奏存在不确定性，对改革政策的预期存在主观性。 敬请参阅最后一页特别 ...

每日晨报 2025年6月16日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 从日本经验看,如果经济一旦陷入通缩陷阱,会极大压制居民和企业的消费和投资意愿,并 导致货币和财政政策的传导机制有效性下降,政策效果由此也会大打折扣。去年以来,决策层反 复强调当前面临的困难之一是国内有效需求不足,明确提出要全面提振内需。针对由于需求不足 导致的物价低迷问题,今年两会工作报告中把 CPI 的目标值从 3%下调至 2%,这意味着 CPI 目 标已经从约束性目标变为成果性目标,从之前防止 CPI 突破 3%,变为推动物价水平回归 2%的 正常水平。对此,央行在一季度货币政策报告中也明确表示"把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币 政策的重要考量，推动物价保持在合理水平"。 前五个月社融资增量累计为 18.63 万亿元 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 宏观:"新"供给侧改革的"加减乘除"。未来十年,国内经济在 AI 驱动下, ...

"散装"强调的是各展所长、各美其美。球场上的"你争我抢"，映射着发展中的"你追我赶"。从太湖之滨 到黄海滩涂，江苏各地各有拿手绝活。南京的数字经济、苏州的智能制造、连云港的远洋运输、无锡的 集成电路……"十三太保"差异发展，全部跻身全国城市GDP百强，一起成就了经济大省的体量与担当。 这种地区间的良性竞争，激活了各自潜能，让江苏大地活力奔涌。 但"散装"绝非一盘散沙，竞争也非"内卷式"的抢地盘。南京生物医药研发能力全国领先，苏州生物医药 已形成现代产业集群，两者在市场一拍即合；地处苏南的江阴与身在江北的靖江共建工业园区，南北结 对结出了硕果。在长三角一体化发展浪潮中，江苏省内也正在形成"苏南引领、苏中崛起、苏北赶超"的 梯度发展模式，产业链深度协作，形成了强大的共生网络，一起融入新发展格局，当弄潮儿挑大梁。 放眼全国看，大国经济往往面临地区资源禀赋差异大等挑战。过去我国一些地区建立自给自足的产业结 构，曾造成产业趋同、产能过剩等问题。今天，发展新质生产力，也有个合理布局的问题。一地如何融 入区域发展格局和国民经济循环，如何将特色鲜明的"珍珠"串成价值倍增的"项链"，江苏的发展实践具 有启发意义。 "散装"强调 ...

Core Insights - The tax authorities have strengthened their service measures to facilitate cross-regional operations for businesses and individuals, enhancing administrative efficiency to support the construction of a unified national market [1][2] - In the first five months of this year, the tax authorities processed 527,700 cross-regional business transactions, and 14,700 taxpayers successfully completed inter-provincial migration, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.52% [1] Group 1 - The tax authorities have implemented a series of measures to address the challenges faced by businesses during cross-regional migration, including optimizing pre-reminders, expediting processing times, and improving post-service support [2] - The average processing time for migration matters has been reduced by 5 to 10 days, allowing eligible businesses to complete their migration on the same day [2] - The tax authorities are committed to continuously optimizing tax payment services and addressing urgent issues faced by taxpayers, translating educational outcomes into practical results for high-quality development [2]

今年以来，在一系列稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期等更加积极有为的宏观政策实施下，制造业和非 制造业景气水平均持续改善，新动能持续向好，企业对市场发展的信心保持稳定。 （作者系中国宏观经济研究院市场与价格研究所研究员） （文章来源：经济日报） 也要看到，外部环境依然复杂严峻，外贸回稳仍有不确定性，需求不足等制约因素仍然存在，企业效益 稳步恢复的基础还需继续巩固。未来，要进一步加强和巩固经济回升向好的基础。 持续实施各项稳经济政策措施。多措并举扩大内需，稳住国内基本盘，做强国内大循环。用好用足更加 积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。创设新 的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性金融工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等。加大资金 支持力度，扩围提质实施"两新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设。提高中低收入群体收入，大力发展服务消 费，增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用。 持续巩固和提升企业效益。培育壮大新质生产力，积极打造一批新兴支柱产业。推动科技创新和产业创 新融合发展，加快传统产业转型升级，坚持标准引领，规范竞争秩序。持续用力推进关键核心技术攻 关，创新推出债券市场的"科 ...