【行情回顾】 周二（7月29日），周一，美元指数大幅上扬，盘中突破98关口后持续走高，最终收涨1%，报98.633。 受累于美元走强和风险情绪回温，现货黄金连跌四日，美盘短线跳水，一度逼近3300美元大关，随后有 所反弹，最终收跌0.68%，收报3314.63美元/盎司；现货白银收平，报38.17美元/盎司。 【要闻汇总】 在8月1日，美国相关贸易协定即将到期。当前，美国已同部分国家达成了协议，在此背景下，黄金价格 承受着显著压力。现阶段市场的核心焦点依然聚焦于中美贸易谈判的进展态势。 随着全球贸易乐观情绪的上升，尤其是美国和欧盟贸易协定的达成，投资者正将注意力转向风险资产， 远离白银等传统避险资产。 【交易思路】 国际黄金：下方关注3300美元或3270美元附近支撑；上方关注3324美元或3336美元附近阻力； 现货白银：下方关注37.85美元或37.50美元支撑；上方关注38.35美元或38.50美元阻力。 此外，本周金融市场还将迎来重磅事件——美联储利率决议以及非农就业数据公布。就利率决议而言， 市场普遍预估利率将维持不变。然而，特朗普却明确表态，认为美联储本周应当实施降息举措。一旦出 现意外降息的情况 ...

Group 1 - Asian stock markets have declined for the third consecutive day, with Vietnam's VN Index dropping 4% as optimism from recent trade agreements fades [1][5] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell by 0.8%, while the US dollar index rose by 0.3%, reaching its highest level since late June [1][5] - Investors are shifting focus to key economic indicators as the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming policy meeting [1][6] Group 2 - The EU-US trade agreement has sparked controversy, with critics arguing it poses risks to the European automotive industry and competitiveness [2] - The euro has depreciated by 0.3% against the dollar, reaching its lowest level in five weeks, reflecting market skepticism about the trade deal [2][5] - Market reactions to the trade agreement have become more rational, with investors prioritizing hard data to assess economic and policy outlooks [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision is a key focus for the market, with significant economic data expected to be released this week [6] - Analysts predict that the data will indicate a rebound in economic activity for the second quarter, influencing short-term policy decisions [6] - Gold prices are projected to rise significantly, potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce by the end of next year, driven by the Fed's rate cuts and increasing global gold reserves [6]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a decline, reaching a three-week low of $3301.29 per ounce, closing at $3314.44, marking a drop of approximately 0.66% [1] - The downward trend in gold prices is influenced by the strong rebound of the US dollar index, improved global risk appetite, and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [1] - The recent US-EU trade agreement has alleviated fears of a global economic downturn, boosting risk assets and putting pressure on gold as a safe-haven asset [4] - The US and EU have reached a trade agreement that sets import tariffs on EU goods at 15%, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30% [4] - The agreement includes a commitment from the EU to make strategic purchases worth up to $750 billion during Trump's term, further enhancing market optimism and reducing demand for gold [4] - Ongoing US-China trade talks provide some support for gold prices, as negotiations aim to extend the trade truce by 90 days, although no significant breakthroughs are expected [5] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain the current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50%, with market expectations for a potential rate cut in September [6] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a bearish trend for gold, with four consecutive days of declines suggesting strong selling pressure [8] - Short-term price movements may challenge the support level around $3250, with potential further declines if this level is breached [8] - Current trading activity shows gold prices stabilizing around the $3300 mark, with traders advised to monitor for potential short positions near $3330 [8] Market Sentiment - The US bond market reflects optimistic sentiment, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rising to 4.414% and 4.962%, respectively [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices continue to perform strongly, indicating a preference for risk assets among investors [2] - Despite the positive sentiment in equities, the upcoming earnings season and key economic data releases may introduce new volatility into the market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend due to the strengthening of the US dollar and improved risk sentiment following a trade agreement between the US and EU [1][2] - Gold prices recently fell to a near three-week low, trading around $3310 per ounce, with a significant drop of $138 from a recent high of $3438 [2] - The market is currently volatile, with expectations for significant price movements in the coming days due to upcoming economic data releases [1][2] Group 2 - The US crude oil price is trading around $66.97 per barrel, having increased nearly 3% recently, influenced by the US-EU trade agreement and geopolitical developments [1] - Technical analysis suggests that crude oil may have some upward potential, with a focus on resistance levels around $69 [3] - Day trading strategies for both gold and oil suggest short positions for gold and long positions for oil, with specific target prices and stop-loss levels outlined [3][4]

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.27 2025-07-28 美日协议提振市场信心，欧央行按兵不动 [Table_Authors] 海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 美日贸易谈判取得进展，提振全球市场情绪，本周全球股市普遍上涨。高利率与高 不确定性下，美国房地产市场需求疲弱，企业资本开支相对谨慎，制造业 PMI 走弱 但服务业表现仍强，经济尚具有韧性。欧央行维持利率不变，9 月或继续按兵不动。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 报 [Table_Report] [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现：上周（2025.7.21-2025.7.25），全球大类资产价 格中，主要经济体股市普遍上涨。其中，日经 225 上涨 4.1%，恒生 指数上涨 2.3%，上证综指上涨 1.7%，标普 500 指数上涨 1.5%，发 达市场股票指数上涨 1.4%，新兴市场股票指数上涨 0.7%。大宗商品 价格涨跌互现，其中，COMEX 铜上涨 4.0%，南华商品指数上涨 2.7%， 伦敦金现下跌 0.4%，标普-高盛商品指数下跌 1.1% ...

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's public confrontation with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the rising renovation costs of the Fed's headquarters, which Trump claims increased from $2.5 billion to $3.1 billion [10][12]. - This confrontation is interpreted as an attempt by Trump to pressure Powell into lowering interest rates from the current range of 4.25%-4.5% to 1%, aiming to reduce government borrowing costs ahead of the election [12][14]. - The event highlights a significant challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve, with Trump's actions seen as a direct attack on the institution's autonomy [18]. Group 2 - The European Central Bank, led by Christine Lagarde, has decided to maintain interest rates and is currently in a "wait-and-see" mode due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies [2]. - Intel's recent actions, including exceeding second-quarter revenue expectations and cutting investments in chip factories, signal that the tech industry is feeling pressure and is preparing for potential economic challenges [2]. - The luxury goods sector, represented by LVMH, is also experiencing a downturn, with sales declining and demand in the Japanese market weakening, indicating broader economic struggles [2]. Group 3 - JPMorgan's trading division remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market, citing progress in trade agreements, positive economic data, and a resurgence in merger activities as factors that could sustain market growth [4]. - However, there are concerns about whether stock prices are overvalued and the potential for a repeat of the "meme stock" bubble, although JPMorgan dismisses these worries as unfounded [4]. - The article suggests that if macroeconomic data continues to be strong and a trade agreement is reached between the U.S. and Europe, the market could see significant upward movement [4].

特朗普又出手了。这次，他不是冲着中国或者欧洲，而是直接冲着美联储和鲍威尔下了狠手。 一位现任美国总统，亲自跑到美联储，用纸条质问对方翻修"花了多少钱"，这种场面，真不是每天都能看到。 美联储总部的两栋历史建筑，在特朗普的眼里，成了天价装修现场。特朗普直接指出花费已经从25亿美元飙到"看起来大约是31亿美元，涨了很多"。鲍威尔 急着澄清，说总统的小纸条"把第三栋也算进去了"，数据有点夸大。 在特朗普看来，只有鲍威尔愿意更快更多地降息，房贷、国债、美国经济的各种成本才能一起"跳水"。他一口咬定鲍威尔成了自己"政治对手"的帮手， 还"成全了"美国的那些民主党人。 这话听着像是抱怨，实际却是警告。他拿欧洲等国家当对照，说"别人都开始降息了"，美国居然按兵不动。特朗普还把账算得明明白白："要是直接降息三 个百分点，咱们每年省下超过1万亿美元。"听着像做生意的账本，可这回账本里的数字够刺激。 问题在于，美联储并不急着听特朗普的话。 虽然市场各种"风向"苗头都指向美联储可能会进一步降息，但鲍威尔当前的态度就是——下周政策会议，利率还得按兵不动。目前美联储大佬们的内部讨 论，是最早也要拖到9月才考虑降息。 这让特朗普很不舒服 ...

唐纳德·特朗普计划罕见地访问美联储，这一决定引发了人们的广泛关注。这将是美国历史上第四次有总统亲自踏足美联储的大门，而且特朗普的此行背景 尤为特别。近年来，特朗普与美联储及其主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔之间的摩擦逐渐升级，特朗普对鲍威尔的领导能力以及美联储在华盛顿特区总部的开支问题提 出了越来越多的批评。此时，特朗普的访问似乎是对这一系列问题的回应，背后潜藏着对美联储独立性的一些政治压力。 通常，历史上的总统访问美联储常常被视为对美联储及其独立性的一种尊重。以往的访问具有象征意义，标志着总统对该机构的信任与支持。例如，乔治· 布什曾在2006年2月6日访问美联储，出席了他提名的本·伯南克担任美联储第14任主席的宣誓仪式。布什在该场合强调了美联储在美国经济体系中的独立 性，指出美联储在制定货币政策、监督银行体系以及维护支付系统方面具有不可动摇的独立地位。他曾公开表示："美联储的决策直接影响每一个美国人的 生活和生计，它是全球金融体系稳定性的重要象征。"布什的言辞彰显了他对美联储独立性和决策自由的坚定支持。 而在布什之前，最接近的总统访问美联储的例子发生在1975年，当时杰拉尔德·福特出席了美联储理事会成员菲利普·杰克逊的 ...

近期，美联储的翻修工程引发了广泛的关注，甚至成为了美国金融界和媒体讨论的焦点。这个位于华盛 顿的历史性建筑，原本只是一项普通的维修任务，但由于翻修工程的巨额投资与工程进度延迟，公众的 视线逐渐聚焦到了美联储的运营与管理上。 特朗普的突然访问使得美联储翻修工程成为了一个更加复杂的议题。这项原本看似与经济无关的建筑改 造工程，反而在当前的政治经济背景下，成为了特朗普表达对美联储政策不满的一个"平台"。翻修工程 的背后，不仅仅是硬件上的升级，更多的可能是对于美联储长期以来"内部管理"的一种隐性批评。 事实上，美联储的建筑翻修工程并非一项简单的修缮工作。考虑到美联储在全球金融体系中的重要地 位，这一工程无论是财政支出还是施工过程，都引发了公众的关注。特朗普对此的关注无疑加剧了这一 话题的热度。分析人士指出，这一翻修工程的背后，或许反映出美联储在透明度和管理效率方面的某些 不足，而这些问题恰恰是特朗普所反复批评的对象。 美联储作为美国的中央银行，其职能不仅仅是制定和实施货币政策，还肩负着调控国家经济和金融稳定 的重要责任。在如此关键的时刻，特朗普的访问无疑增加了政治和经济的不确定性，而他对于利率的表 态，也成为了金融市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US economy shows a mixed picture with manufacturing in contraction and inflation pressure rising, while the EU and the US are in trade negotiations and the ECB maintains interest rates. Domestically, the stock and commodity markets are positive, the bond market is under pressure, and various commodities show different trends affected by multiple factors such as trade policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment [2][3] - The prices of precious metals are in回调 due to the expected easing of trade tensions; copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile; aluminum prices are likely to oscillate; alumina prices will stay in a short - term oscillation; zinc prices will adjust at a high level; lead prices will move horizontally; tin prices will oscillate at a high level; industrial silicon prices will be strongly oscillating; lithium carbonate prices will have a wide - range oscillation; nickel prices may oscillate strongly; crude oil prices will have their center of gravity lifted; steel prices will oscillate; iron ore prices will oscillate; and the prices of bean and rapeseed meal will have a wide - range oscillation, while palm oil prices may oscillate strongly [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][18][20][22][24][25][26][28] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI is 49.5 (in contraction), the service PMI is 55.2 (a new high for the year), inflation pressure rises, and business confidence drops. The EU and the US are close to a trade deal, but the EU has approved a 930 - billion - euro anti - tariff measure on US products. The ECB maintains interest rates, and the market's expectation of further rate cuts weakens [2] - Domestic: The A - share market breaks through 3600 points, with a trading volume of about 1.9 trillion yuan. The bond market is under pressure, and the 10Y and 30Y treasury bond rates rise to 1.74% and 1.95% respectively [3] Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fall 0.77% to $3371.3 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fall 0.55% to $39.285 per ounce. The expected easing of global trade tensions weakens the demand for hedging, putting pressure on precious metals [4] Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper slightly falls. The US manufacturing contraction and the approaching tariff deadline make the overseas capital market cautious. Freeport's second - quarter copper production is 43.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%. Copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile [6][7] Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closes at 20760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41%. The increase in the US dollar index and the weak US manufacturing PMI increase the pressure on aluminum prices. The inventory of aluminum ingots accumulates, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreases. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8][9] Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closes at 3355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.81%. The low - level warehouse receipt inventory provides support for alumina prices, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10] Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc has an intraday volatile and strong trend. The decrease in the position of an LME seat, the slight increase in LME inventory, and the slight discount of LME0 - 3 spot ease the squeeze - out concern. Zinc prices are expected to adjust at a high level [11][12] Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead moves horizontally. The high inventory pressure is not relieved, and the consumption improvement is insufficient. Lead prices are expected to move horizontally in the short term, and attention should be paid to consumption variables [13][14] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin oscillates at a high level. The decrease in the position of an LME seat eases the squeeze - out concern, but the rainy season in Southeast Asia may affect the transportation of tin ore in Myanmar. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [15] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon is strongly oscillating. The supply side is in a passive contraction state, and the demand side shows different trends. Supported by policies, the prices are expected to be strongly oscillating, but the risk of high - level decline should be guarded against [16][17] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate runs strongly, and the spot price slightly rises. The market is affected by various news, and the price amplitude increases. The spot market is cold, and lithium prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term [18][19] Nickel - Nickel prices oscillate weakly. The supply of nickel ore is becoming more abundant, and the cost pressure of nickel iron still exists. The introduction of the price draft may make nickel prices oscillate strongly [20][21] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices oscillate. The short - term geopolitical risk cools down, the EIA crude oil inventory decreases more than expected, and the macro - sentiment is strengthening, pushing up the center of gravity of crude oil prices [22][23] Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillate. Multiple departments are promoting anti - involution competition rectification. The supply and demand of steel are in a weak balance. Steel prices are expected to oscillate [24] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillate at a high level. The supply of iron ore is sufficient, and the cost increase due to the rise of coke prices suppresses the bargaining space of iron ore. The demand remains resilient. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [25] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of bean and rapeseed meal fall. The water - heat conditions in the US soybean - producing areas are good, and the export sales of new - crop soybeans are slow. Affected by the protein - reduction policy, the long - position funds reduce their positions, and the prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [26][27] Palm Oil - Palm oil prices may oscillate strongly. The production of Malaysian palm oil is in an increasing cycle, and the potential demand from countries like India provides support. The market expects future supply to tighten [28][29]