Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - A-shares' major indices strengthened collectively this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 2%. The four stock index futures also went up, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. Both domestic and overseas positive news boosted the market. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel improved market risk appetite, and the central bank's guidance on financial support for consumption and expansion of consumption enthusiasm for the consumer and financial sectors [8]. - This week, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened collectively. The yields of 1 - 7Y bonds rose by about 0.10 - 1.60bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds rose by about 0.5bp and 1.15bp to 1.65% and 1.85% respectively. The adjustment in the bond market was mainly due to the shift in risk appetite, and the ceasefire between Iran and Israel drove the equity market to strengthen, triggering a slight increase in interest rates [8]. - In May, China's imports and exports, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added - value declined year - on - year compared to the previous period, and the real estate market continued to decline. Only social retail sales increased due to new policies. The previously announced CPI and PPI data also indicated future price pressure. The possible improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the dovish stance of the Fed officials supported commodity prices [8]. - The US dollar may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the euro benefits from the weakening of the US dollar in the short term. The Japanese yen is caught between the expectation of interest rate hikes and trade frictions [12]. - In May, the profits of industrial enterprises above the national scale decreased significantly year - on - year, mainly affected by insufficient effective demand, falling industrial product prices, and the high - base effect. However, the profits of the equipment manufacturing industry and some emerging industries increased significantly [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.95%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock Index Futures rose 2.78%. A - shares' major indices strengthened, and the four stock index futures went up. Small and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel and the central bank's guidance on consumption boosted the market. Market trading activity recovered significantly. Allocation recommendation: cautious waiting and seeing [8]. Bonds - The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose by 0.05% this week, with a weekly change of + 0.08BP, and the main 10 - year treasury bond futures fell by 0.11%. The yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened, and the yields of 1 - 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y bonds rose. The bond market adjustment was due to the shift in risk appetite. Allocation recommendation: cautious waiting and seeing [8]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index fell 1.01%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index fell 1.60%. In May, China's economic data was mixed, and the possible improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the dovish stance of the Fed officials supported commodity prices. Allocation recommendation: buy on dips [8]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar rose 1.51%, and the euro against the US dollar 2509 contract rose 1.31%. The US dollar was under pressure, the euro benefited from the weakening of the US dollar, and the Japanese yen fluctuated. Allocation recommendation: cautious waiting and seeing [8] 2. Important News and Events - Premier Li Qiang attended the opening ceremony of the 2025 Summer Davos Forum and emphasized China's support for economic globalization, free trade, and multilateralism [16]. - Six departments including the central bank issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, with a 500 billion yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care [16]. - A military parade will be held in Beijing on September 3 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War [16]. - China strongly condemned the US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and called for a ceasefire and dialogue [16]. - Iran and Israel agreed to a full ceasefire [17]. - The US and the EU are about to reach a "reciprocal trade agreement" on multiple non - tariff trade disputes, but the lack of tariff issues in the draft adds uncertainty [17]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is small, but the Fed officials have released dovish signals [17]. 3. This Week's Domestic and Overseas Economic Data - China: The profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale in May decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative profit from January to May decreased by 1.1% [13]. - US: The first - quarter GDP annualized quarterly rate was revised down to - 0.5%, consumer spending growth was at a low level since 2020, and the consumer confidence index was lower than expected [12]. - Eurozone: The economy showed signs of stabilization, but the manufacturing PMI was still under pressure. There were differences within the ECB on the pace of interest rate cuts [12]. - Japan: Inflation pressure continued to rise, but exports were suppressed by the US - Japan tariff deadlock, and domestic demand was weak [12]. 4. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Key economic indicators to be released next week include China's June official manufacturing PMI, Germany's June unemployment rate and CPI monthly rate, the US's June ADP employment, unemployment rate, and non - farm payrolls, etc. [85]

Core Insights - The total net asset value of public funds in China reached a new high of 33.74 trillion yuan as of the end of May 2025, reflecting an increase of 0.62 trillion yuan or 1.87% from the end of April 2025 [1][2] Fund Categories Summary - Closed-end funds: 1,336 funds with a net value of 3758.56 billion yuan, slightly decreased from April [2] - Open-end funds: 11,436 funds with a net value of 2998.21 billion yuan, increased from April [2] - Stock funds: 2,939 funds with a net value of 4581.61 billion yuan, showing a slight increase [2] - Mixed funds: 5,142 funds with a net value of 3567.61 billion yuan, slightly decreased [2] - Bond funds: 2,667 funds with a net value of 6779.80 billion yuan, increased by 221.88 billion yuan [2][3] - Money market funds: 371 funds with a net value of 1439.88 billion yuan, increased by 407.13 billion yuan [2][3] - QDII funds: 317 funds with a net value of 654.28 billion yuan, increased by 10.25 billion yuan [2] Market Trends - The growth in the fund market is primarily driven by money market and bond funds, as investors prefer low-risk, high-liquidity products amid poor performance in equity assets [3] - The bond ETF market has seen significant growth, with the total scale surpassing 360 billion yuan by June 24, 2025, marking a milestone in the sector [4] - Credit bond ETFs have shown remarkable growth, with some products increasing by approximately 416% in scale within five months [4] Regulatory and Industry Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released a new action plan on May 7, 2025, aimed at promoting high-quality development in the public fund industry, introducing 25 specific measures [5] - The first batch of 26 new floating-rate funds has raised over 15 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest and participation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of bond ETFs in China is driven by their scarcity, operational convenience, and the recent inclusion of credit bond ETFs in general pledge-style repurchase agreements, enhancing their attractiveness and liquidity [1][2][5]. Group 1: Growth of Bond ETFs - The total market size of bond ETFs has surpassed 360 billion yuan, with credit bond ETFs showing significant growth, particularly the Bosera Credit Bond ETF, which has recently exceeded 10 billion yuan in size [1]. - The scarcity of bond ETFs, such as the limited number of 30-year government bond index funds and convertible bond index funds, contributes to their appeal [2]. - The operational advantages of bond ETFs include low management fees, strong tool attributes, and transparent underlying assets, making them more attractive compared to traditional bond index funds [3][4]. Group 2: Institutional and Individual Participation - Institutional investors, including banks, insurance companies, and pension funds, dominate the bond ETF market, accounting for over 80% of the ownership structure, although individual investors are gradually increasing their participation [4]. - The recognition and acceptance of bond ETFs among individual investors are still in the early stages, but with increased investor education and product promotion, participation is expected to rise [4]. Group 3: Impact of Pledge Inclusion - The inclusion of multiple credit bond ETFs in general pledge-style repurchase agreements enhances their attractiveness by allowing investors to leverage their holdings for increased returns [5]. - The operational simplicity and low transaction costs associated with pledge transactions make credit bond ETFs particularly suitable for on-exchange investment needs [5]. - The liquidity of credit bond ETFs is significantly better than that of individual corporate bonds, and the continued growth in scale is expected to further enhance liquidity and meet customer trading demands [5]. Group 4: Stock-Bond Relationship - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect has been amplified in recent years, indicating a stronger inverse relationship between stock and bond market performances [6][7]. - The occurrence of days where stocks rise while bonds fall, or vice versa, has increased, with the proportion of such trading days rising to over 50% in recent years [6][7]. - The correlation between daily price movements of stocks and bonds has also increased, indicating a growing interdependence between the two asset classes [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical impact on stock index futures is controllable, and the A-share market is in a stage of oscillation to find a direction. The core contradiction lies in the need for policy support in the weak reality and the unclear impact of tariff events on the fundamentals. The marginal flow of funds determines the short - term market direction [1][7]. - For stock index options, sentiment repair continuity can be arranged. The trading volume of the options market increased, and the sentiment of each variety rebounded slightly. The defensive sentiment weakened, and the volatility reached the lowest level this year. It is advisable to use collar strategies or bull spreads and also consider light - position double - buying [2][8]. - In the case of treasury bond futures, the profit - taking sentiment may increase. The treasury bond futures mostly declined yesterday. Although the market's risk - aversion sentiment may have increased due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, the increase was limited. With the approaching of the end of the quarter and the acceleration of local bond issuance, the market is cautious about the capital side, and the 10Y treasury bond interest rate is near the key point [3][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The A - share market oscillated and recovered yesterday, with the whole A - index rising 0.85%. The computer, military, and coal sectors led the gains, and the trading volume of the two markets was 1.15 trillion. The number of daily limit stocks increased to 83 [7]. - **Key Data**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts was - 34.50 points, - 30.78 points, - 48.37 points, and - 76.82 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 7.74 points, 6.14 points, 2.74 points, and - 12.03 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by 18334 lots, 12339 lots, 6879 lots, and 12238 lots [7]. - **Logic**: The geopolitical risk is the main variable in the news, but the market expects a low probability of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked. The core contradiction in the A - share market is the need for policy support in the weak reality and the unclear impact of tariff events. The recent depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar has suppressed the sentiment of the pharmaceutical and new - consumption sectors [1][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The underlying market opened low and closed high yesterday. The sentiment of small - cap stocks recovered. The trading volume of the options market was 4082 million yuan, a 5.08% increase from the previous trading day, with medium - to - high liquidity and active intraday trading [2][8][9]. - **Key Data**: The PCR of the 50ETF and CSI 1000 stock index futures showed different rebound strengths, with the 50ETF reaching the level at the end of May [8]. - **Logic**: The downward sentiment of each variety has eased, and the defensive sentiment has weakened. The volatility has reached the lowest level this year, and the cost - effectiveness of short - volatility is low [2][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Use collar strategies, bull spreads, and light - position double - buying [8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Treasury bond futures mostly declined yesterday. The T main contract continued to decline in price after opening, rebounded in the afternoon, but still closed slightly lower. The TL main contract opened higher in the morning but turned down during the day [3][8][10]. - **Key Data**: The trading volume and positions of T, TF, TS, and TL current - quarter contracts changed to varying degrees. The central bank conducted 22.05 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases yesterday, with 34.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [8]. - **Logic**: The conflict between Israel and Iran may have increased the market's risk - aversion sentiment, but the increase was limited. The stock market strengthened during the day, showing a stock - bond seesaw effect. The capital side was relatively stable, but the market was cautious due to the approaching end of the quarter and the acceleration of local bond issuance. The 10Y treasury bond interest rate is near the key point [3][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a trend strategy of oscillation, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels for hedging strategies, appropriately focus on the widening of the basis for basis strategies, and choose to steepen the curve in the medium - term for curve strategies [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On June 23, 2025, the initial value of the Eurozone's June SPGI manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the same as the previous value; the initial value of the US June SPGI manufacturing PMI was 52, higher than the predicted value [11]. - On June 24, 2025, the German June IFO business climate index and the US June Conference Board consumer confidence index are yet to be announced [11]. - Other economic data such as the US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21, 2025, and the Eurozone's June consumer confidence index final value are also scheduled for release in the following days [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **US Macroeconomics**: Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said that if inflation remains subdued, she may support a rate cut by the Fed in July. If inflation continues to decline or the job market weakens, the FOMC can cut interest rates [12]. - **Real Estate**: The Hangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center launched a service allowing employees to use their housing provident fund to directly pay the down - payment for newly built commercial housing in Hangzhou, with full online processing support. The online processing function for second - hand houses is under development and will be launched soon [12]. - **Stablecoins**: The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Ordinance" will come into effect on August 1, 2025. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has set relatively strict standards for stablecoin issuers, with a high entry threshold. It is expected that only a few licenses will be issued initially, and the licensed stablecoins will have specific uses such as cross - border trade [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - Information about stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data is mentioned in the content, but no specific detailed summaries are provided in the text other than the data presented in the market views section [13][17][29].

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 - 总量周报 2025年6月9日 周度金融市场跟踪 中美元首通电话,本周股市普遍上涨;债券市场 先抑后扬,窄幅震荡(6月2日-6月6) ■ 股票方面,本周 A 股迎来普涨,小盘股继续跑赢大盘股。全周累计看,沪深 300 本 周上涨 0.9%,中证 2000 上涨 2.3%。港股恒生指数本周上涨 2.2%。行业方面,本周 31个一级行业有26个上涨,通信、有色金属和电子行业领涨,家用电器、食品饮料 2 个消费类行业领跌。医药行业本周上涨 1.1%连续 7 周上涨。周内看. 本周由于端 午假期仅4个交易日。美东时间6月1日中午新闻报道白宫国家经济委员会主任哈西 特在接受采访时表示预计中美元首将于本周就关税问题进行会谈。周二至周四(6月 3-5日)市场在此预期下总体上涨,主要指数连续上涨3天,中证2000更是在周四收 至4月以来的最高点。周四(6月5日)晚间中美元首通电话,预期兑现后,周五(6 月6日)市场小幅回调。美股本周在中美元首通话预期以及周五非农数据超预期影响 下整体上涨。标普 500 指数上涨 1.5%,周五收盘标普 500 指数重回 6000点。纳斯达 克 100 指数上涨2 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 周度金融市场跟踪 中美元首通电话，本周股市普遍上涨；债券市场 先抑后扬，窄幅震荡（ 6 月 2 日 -6 月 6 ） 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：郭军 (8610)66229081 jun.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519070001 证券分析师：李晨希 chenxi.li@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525010002 股票方面，本周 A 股迎来普涨，小盘股继续跑赢大盘股。全周累计看，沪深 300 本 周上涨 0.9%，中证 2000 上涨 2.3%。港股恒生指数本周上涨 2.2%。行业方面，本周 31 个一级行业有 26 个上涨，通信、有色金属和电子行业领涨，家用电器、食品饮料 2 个消费类行业领跌。医药行业本周上涨 1.1%连续 7 周上涨。周内看，本周由于端 午假期仅 4 个交易日。美东时间 6 月 1 日中午新闻报道白宫国家经济委员会主任哈西 特在接受采访时表示预计中美元首将于本周就关税问题进行会谈。周 ...

Group 1: Global Capital Market and Investment Strategies - The global capital market is experiencing increased volatility, prompting international insurance capital to reassess their asset allocation strategies [1][2] - Chinese assets have become more attractive to international long-term funds, with the MSCI China Index rising nearly 13% year-to-date as of the end of May [1] - Long-term investors focus on a 10 to 20-year outlook, seeking stability and certainty in their investments, despite short-term market fluctuations [1][8] Group 2: Investment Preferences and Asset Allocation - International long-term funds prefer a "barbell strategy" in China, investing in high-dividend stocks of large state-owned enterprises and emerging technology sectors such as AI and semiconductors [1][8] - In the technology sector, insurance capital seeks certainty amid uncertainty, with a focus on leading companies in the power and copper industries due to rising demand from AI developments [2][8] - The demand for alternative assets is increasing within the insurance industry, particularly in the Asian market, as firms look for new investment opportunities [2][4] Group 3: Gold Investment and Risk Management - Chinese insurance capital has officially entered the gold market, with potential holdings estimated to reach between 208 tons and 555 tons, accounting for less than 2% of global gold demand [3] - Insurance capital follows a "three no-investment" principle, avoiding assets that cannot be managed for risk, priced, or exited easily, which raises concerns about gold's suitability for investment [3][7] - The long-term outlook for gold is positive due to its status as a safe asset, driven by demand for security and expectations of currency devaluation [2][7] Group 4: Impact of Interest Rates and Economic Conditions - Rising U.S. Treasury yields are viewed positively by insurance capital, as they allow for higher returns on premium income and improve solvency calculations [5] - The long-term trend in interest rates is expected to be downward due to technological advancements that reduce production costs and alleviate inflationary pressures [5][6] - The recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating is not expected to have a significant disruptive impact on global investment patterns, as demand for safe assets remains strong [6] Group 5: Chinese Market Opportunities - International long-term funds maintain interest in Chinese assets, with a focus on stability and long-term growth potential [8][10] - The healthcare sector in China is highlighted as a significant growth area, with innovations in pharmaceuticals and medical devices gaining global traction [10][11] - Overall, there are structural opportunities in Chinese assets, particularly as lower interest rates reduce financing costs and support stock market growth [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in government bond futures and the drop in deposit rates signal a new phase in China's interest rate marketization, presenting both opportunities and risks for the bond market [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 29, 2025, government bond futures collectively fell, with the 30-year main contract down 0.58%, the 10-year down 0.25%, the 5-year down 0.16%, and the 2-year down 0.05% [3]. - The 30-year government bond ETF (博时) saw a decrease of 0.57%, with the latest price at 110.86 yuan, indicating active market trading with a turnover of 17.94% and a transaction volume of 1.288 billion yuan [3]. - The 30-year government bond ETF has reached a new high in size at 7.197 billion yuan and a new high in shares at 64.6597 million [4]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Performance - The 30-year government bond ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past six days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 202 million yuan, totaling 503 million yuan, averaging 83.7532 million yuan per day [4]. - The ETF's net value increased by 14.13% over the past year, ranking 3rd out of 378 in the index bond fund category, placing it in the top 0.79% [4]. - The ETF has a maximum monthly return of 5.35% since inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being four months and the longest gain percentage at 10.58% [4]. Group 3: Risk and Fees - The 30-year government bond ETF has a Sharpe ratio of 1.02 for the past year, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [5]. - The maximum drawdown since inception is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [5]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, contributing to its overall cost structure [5].

Core Viewpoint - The reduction of tariffs between the US and China is expected to significantly improve market sentiment and economic growth expectations, particularly benefiting export-related industries and sectors that have previously undergone substantial adjustments [1][2][4]. Group 1: Tariff Reduction Impact - The US has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, with specific adjustments made in February, March, and May [4][5]. - China has reciprocated by suspending its 24% tariffs on US goods, lowering the tax rate from 125% to 10% [4][5]. - The tariff reductions exceed market expectations, indicating a potential for improved trade relations [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Beneficiaries - Export-related industries such as new energy, machinery, and home appliances are expected to benefit directly from improved export channels and revised profit expectations [2]. - The TMT sector (telecommunications, media, and technology) is also likely to see a recovery due to improved market sentiment and increased trading activity [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds may lead some investors to shift funds towards equity markets, increasing pressure on interest rate bonds [2]. - The reduction in tariffs is anticipated to boost China's economic growth expectations, which may result in a phase of adjustment for long-term interest rate bonds [2].

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 5 月 11 日 周度金融市场跟踪 本周 A 股呈现普涨行情，债市震荡分化走陡 （ 5 月 5 日 -5 月 9 日） 股票方面，五一节后本周 A 股 4 个交易日，呈现普涨行情，其中小盘股走势更强。 全周累计看，沪深 300 上涨 2.0%、中证1000 上涨 2.2%、中证 2000 上涨 3.6%、微盘 股指数上涨 5.7%，已是连续 4 周上涨。港股恒生指数上涨 1.6%，恒生科技指数下跌 1.2%。行业方面，本周 31 个一级行业指数本周全部收涨，国防军工、通信和电力设 备领涨。周内看，5 月 2 日商务部表示美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信 息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方正在进行评估。受此新闻影响，周二（5 月 6 日） 市场高开高走，当天超 4900 只个股上涨。周三（5 月 7 日）早晨外交部公告何立峰 副总理将于 5 月 9 日-12 日访问瑞士，期间与美方举行会谈。当天上午九点国新办召 开新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，发布会上人民 银行潘行长公布了包括降准降息在内的三大类共十项货币政策措施。当天 ...