Group 1 - The Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) market is experiencing a dual benefit of policy support and market resonance as the traditional consumption peak season approaches [1][2] - Various regions are launching limited-time subsidies to stimulate consumer demand, such as Shenyang's 50 million yuan subsidy and Chongqing's 100 million yuan budget for vehicle replacement [1] - The national government is reinforcing policy support, including the implementation of a new fiscal subsidy for personal consumption loans related to vehicle purchases [1][3] Group 2 - The "Golden September and Silver October" period is crucial for automakers to boost annual sales, with major brands preparing for this peak season [1][2] - Over 70% of new car launches in September are NEVs, with companies initiating promotional activities to convert market interest into actual orders [2] - Experts predict significant growth in the NEV market during this period, driven by rising consumer confidence and increased travel demand [2][3] Group 3 - The market is supported by ongoing government incentives such as trade-in programs and NEV promotions, while automakers are expected to leverage the second half of the year for sales boosts [3] - The China Automobile Dealers Association forecasts that NEV sales could exceed 13 million units by 2025, indicating strong market potential [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Short - term, the gold price is bullish due to the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence. The weak employment data in the US in August strengthens the easing expectation. In the long - term, the continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the de - dollarization trend, and geopolitical risks boost the currency attribute and safe - haven demand of gold. The precipitation funds in SHFE gold futures have exceeded 100 billion yuan, indicating strong market enthusiasm [3]. - **Copper**: In the short term, with a tight supply, the copper price faces obvious pressure at 79,000 yuan per ton, and the 20 - day moving average may provide support, with the price expected to stand firm at 80,000 yuan per ton [18]. - **Aluminum**: Macroeconomic factors such as the weak US non - farm payrolls in August, the almost certain Fed rate cut in September, and the improvement of domestic policies are positive for the aluminum price. Fundamentally, the increase in the aluminum - water ratio and the recovery of downstream demand in the peak season support the price. However, the late de - stocking node restricts the upward range of the aluminum price in the short term, and the SHFE aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc ore has a price advantage, and the overseas zinc ore supply is abundant. The demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" is generally expected, and the zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short term [68]. - **Nickel**: The production and shipment of nickel ore are stable, and the inventory at domestic ports is high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. The price of nickel iron is also strong, and the stainless - steel market is in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index, rate - cut expectations, and the difficulty of stainless - steel exports [84]. - **Tin**: In the short term, the factors affecting the tin price are not obvious, and the technical level can be used for judgment. The price of 270,000 yuan per ton has certain support [99]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although there is an optimistic short - term expectation for the resumption of production of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine, the peak - season demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" still provides effective support for the lithium carbonate price. The resumption of production cannot cover the current peak - season demand, and the supply - side disturbance does not change the fundamental support logic [111]. - **Silicon**: In the short term, the Inner Mongolia meeting has a positive impact on sentiment. In the long term, the industry faces structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by rumors and policy expectations, with high uncertainty in price trends. Investors are advised to be cautious [120]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Sentiment**: The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the initial jobless claims soared to 263,000, which strengthened the easing expectation. The precipitation funds in SHFE gold futures exceeded 100 billion yuan, with an increase of more than 17 billion yuan in a month [3]. Copper - **Price Forecast**: In the short term, the copper price has pressure at 79,000 yuan per ton and may be supported by the 20 - day moving average, with the expectation of reaching 80,000 yuan per ton [18]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Southern Reserve, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 80,755 yuan/ton, 80,990 yuan/ton, 80,930 yuan/ton, and 81,080 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.72%, 1.06%, 1.01%, and 1.01% [22]. Aluminum - **Macroeconomic Impact**: The weak US non - farm payrolls in August, the almost certain Fed rate cut in September, and the improvement of domestic policies are positive for the aluminum price [37]. - **Fundamental Situation**: The aluminum - water ratio has increased, and the downstream demand in the peak season is recovering, mainly in the industrial profile sector led by photovoltaics. The possible termination of the tax - refund policy for some recycled aluminum enterprises may reduce the supply of recycled aluminum and support the consumption of primary aluminum [37]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side is in an oversupply state, with abundant overseas zinc ore supply and high zinc ore imports. The demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" is generally expected, and the zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short term [68]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The production and shipment of nickel ore are stable, and the inventory at domestic ports is high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market is volatile [84]. Tin - **Price Judgment**: In the short term, the technical level can be used to judge the tin price, and the price of 270,000 yuan per ton has certain support [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Logic**: The peak - season demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" provides effective support for the lithium carbonate price. The resumption of production of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine cannot cover the current peak - season demand, and the supply - side disturbance does not change the fundamental support logic [111]. Silicon - **Industry Outlook**: In the short term, the Inner Mongolia meeting has a positive impact on sentiment. In the long term, the industry faces structural pressure, and the polysilicon market is affected by rumors and policy expectations, with high uncertainty [120].

近日，多地出台购房支持政策。 9月12日，河南省出台12条举措支持住房消费，包括持续开展房产展销活动、加大购房补贴力度、支持多子女家庭购房、提高公积金个人贷款额度、拓宽公积金使 用范围、加大金融支持力度等。 另外，浙江余杭发布房产新政，提出对符合条件的新建商品住宅购房家庭，在办理不动产权证后，一次性给予4万元补助。同时，对购买非住宅新建商品房的企事 业等单位及个人，在办理不动产权证后，按照实际缴纳契税金额的50%给予补助。 业内人士认为，在当前"金九银十"关键节点，未来核心一二线城市受益于新政出台市场热度或将延续高位波动，武汉、南京、合肥、郑州等二线城市或将呈现出弱 复苏走势，购房信心逐步修复。 河南出台12条楼市新政 9月12日，据"河南发布"公众号消息，河南省住建厅等八部门联合发布《关于支持住房消费的若干措施》，提出12条举措，通过政府补贴、企业让利、金融支持等 多种方式降低购房成本、助力群众安居，有效满足刚性和多样化改善性住房需求。 其中提出，持续开展房产展销活动。各地要利用"金九银十"等传统消费旺季和节假日，2025年底前通过线上线下等方式全省累计开展不少于100场房展会、购房节 等展销活动，积极搭建 ...

Core Insights - The average daily transaction volume of used cars in China reached 66,700 units from September 1 to 7, 2025, reflecting a slight week-over-week decline of 0.66% [1] - The market is experiencing a minor adjustment due to the traditional seasonal transition and policy effects, with overall trading volume showing slight fluctuations [1] Market Dynamics - September is a critical transition month for the automotive market, moving from the summer season to the peak consumption period known as "Golden September and Silver October" [1] - Despite the continuation of local replacement subsidy policies and a wave of new car launches, market activity has decreased compared to late August due to the waning effects of summer consumption and consumer anticipation for promotional events during the National Day holiday [1] - Demand for family-oriented vehicles remains stable, while the trading pace for high-end luxury models has slowed down [1] Dealer Feedback - 38% of dealers reported a decrease in offline customer traffic compared to the previous period, and nearly 28% of businesses experienced a drop in transaction volume, particularly in non-restricted cities and third- and fourth-tier markets [1] - In terms of pricing, 48% of companies maintained stable end prices, while 41% reported a decline in terminal prices, with downward pressure primarily affecting mid-range models aged 3 to 5 years [1] Future Outlook - The used car market is expected to reach a turning point in mid-September, driven by the continuous release of policy benefits, new product iterations, and gradual recovery of consumer confidence [2] - With the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day promotional seasons, along with a series of local auto shows, transaction volumes are anticipated to experience a stepwise increase, marking the official entry into the traditional peak season [2]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector showed strong performance on the 12th, with several stocks hitting the daily limit, including Electric Alloy (300697) up 20%, New Weiling up over 15%, and others like Shengda Resources (000603) and Yunnan Copper (000878) also seeing significant gains [1] - Institutions indicate that expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have risen, combined with the seasonal demand boost in September and October, providing strong upward momentum for industrial metal prices [1] - Zhongyou Securities noted that despite a recent decline in LME copper prices and weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls, the overall economic data suggests a higher likelihood of a soft landing rather than a recession, which could support copper prices [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities highlighted that recent weak employment data in the U.S. and inflation aligning with expectations have bolstered market confidence in a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, positively impacting gold and silver prices [1] - The legal and economic uncertainties stemming from the Trump tariff case are expected to increase safe-haven demand, providing support for gold prices, while silver prices are reaching new highs due to its industrial properties and upward momentum [1] - In the medium to long term, central bank gold purchases and weakening U.S. dollar credit are seen as key trends, with a continued positive outlook for gold prices and opportunities for positioning in the gold sector [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price of copper is rated as cautiously bullish, and the recommended strategies are long-short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets and calendar spread arbitrage [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - In September, there are certain disturbances in electrolytic copper production, and the pattern of persistently low TC prices is difficult to change. Meanwhile, demand is not as pessimistic as expected in the middle of the year. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly adopt the strategy of buying on dips for hedging. Considering the "Golden September and Silver October" period and relatively low domestic warehouse receipts, the near - month contracts may rise again, so it is not advisable to establish short positions in domestic near - month contracts for arbitrage trading [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,950 yuan/ton and closed at 80,130 yuan/ton, a 0.43% increase from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 80,160 yuan/ton and closed at 80,490 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase from the afternoon close of the same day [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of electrolytic copper stabilized and rebounded. The average price of SMM1 copper was 80,110 - 80,240 yuan/ton, with a premium of 85 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan) over the main contract. The import loss widened to 500 yuan/ton. Due to reduced circulating supply and a 0.12 - thousand - ton inventory decline in Shanghai, the sales pressure eased, and the spot trading sentiment improved. It is expected that the spot premium will remain firm [2]. Important Information Summary - **Economic Data**: The US CPI annual rate in August was 2.9%, the largest increase in 7 months. The monthly rate was 0.4%, the highest since January and higher than the expected 0.3%. The core CPI annual rate was 3.1%, in line with expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 6 was 263,000, the highest since the week of October 23, 2021, higher than the market expectation of 235,000. The probability of a 25 - BP interest rate cut at the September FOMC meeting was 93.9%, and the probability of a 50 - BP cut was 6.1% [3]. - **Mine End**: Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals Ltd. about restarting the closed Cobre Panamá copper mine, with discussions expected to start at the end of this year or early 2026. A comprehensive environmental audit of the mine will start in the coming weeks, which will take three to four months to complete [3]. - **Smelting and Import**: Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year to 228,007 tons. In the first seven months of 2025, Peru's copper production was about 1.56 million tons, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [4]. - **Consumption**: In August 2025, the domestic output of electrolytic copper foil was 103,600 tons, a 1.97% month - on - month increase. It is expected that in September, the copper foil market will enter the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" period, with prices expected to stabilize and gradually recover. The seasonal stocking demand in the downstream power battery and consumer electronics sectors is expected to increase, which may drive up orders for lithium - ion copper foil and electronic circuit copper foil [4]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 225 tons to 154,175 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 902 tons to 20,028 tons. On September 11, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 144,300 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous week [4]. Strategy - **Absolute Price**: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to mainly buy on dips for hedging. - **Arbitrage**: Long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets and calendar spread arbitrage [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on the prices of precious and industrial metals, leading to a significant rise in the non-ferrous metal index by 2.93% [3] - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) saw an increase of 3.06%, with major holdings like Yunnan Copper and Northern Copper reaching their daily limit up, indicating strong market performance [3] - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 15 days, totaling 346 million yuan, with its latest share count reaching 389 million and total assets hitting 575 million yuan, both marking new highs in the past year [3] Group 2 - According to Minsheng Securities, the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with seasonal demand improvements in September and October, provides strong upward momentum for industrial metal prices [3] - Concerns have arisen regarding a month-on-month decline in electrolytic copper production in September, which is expected to impact October's supply, while the demand fundamentals remain robust due to the consumption peak in September [3] - In the aluminum sector, supply-side adjustments and a resurgence of holding merchants' price support sentiment, along with downstream replenishment activities, indicate sustained demand [3] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund closely tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index, with the top ten weighted stocks as of August 29, 2025, including Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and Luoyang Molybdenum, collectively accounting for 51.86% of the index [4] - The top ten stocks by weight in the non-ferrous metal ETF fund include Zijin Mining (15.80%), Northern Rare Earth (4.98%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (4.68%), among others, reflecting a diverse portfolio [6]

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 美国 CPI 数据符合预期，降息预期强化，另外地缘局势升级扩大中，黄金有支撑。中 | | 黄金 | 多单持有 | 长期主要国家政策双宽松，地缘格局重塑，央行继续买黄金，黄金资产配置需求强 | | ★★ | | 烈。长期黄金继续战略配置。短期谨防衰退忧虑交易 | | | | 降息预期和对经济前景不确定性共同作用，白银高位震荡。白银自身由于双宽政策 | | 白银 | 多单持有 | 积极，中长期全球流动性和各国再工业化，使得需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，供需 | | ★★ | | 缺口明显，白银向上趋势不变。短期关注美元流动性风险 | | | | 美国 CPI 数据符合预期，美就业数据疲软，美联储降息几乎板上钉钉，中东地缘风险 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 激增，美元指数走弱，金九银十旺季预期叠加供应或边际收敛，建议铜前期多单继 | | ★ | | 续持有，中长期，对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观和板块情绪回暖，伦锌走强，带动沪锌止跌反弹，但继续上行需要更多宏微共 | | 锌 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the sales of 20 major listed developers increased by 14.2% month-on-month in August, driven by strong performances from Greentown China, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Poly Property [1] - The report anticipates an improvement in capital market sentiment, suggesting that leading private enterprises may accelerate their debt restructuring processes [1] - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on China Resources Land and Yuexiu Property, both rated as "buy" [1] Group 2 - According to preliminary data from CRIC, the total sales of the top 100 developers in August 2025 decreased by 4% month-on-month to 220.2 billion RMB from 229.4 billion RMB in July [1] - The real estate market in August was primarily influenced by policies related to housing provident funds and easing measures, which aimed to stimulate market activity through expanded provident fund usage, further opening of purchase restrictions, and reducing rental burdens [1] - The traditional marketing peak season in September is expected to bring a rebound in market activity [1] Group 3 - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the new residential property price index for July decreased by 3.4% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, while the second-hand residential property price index fell by 5.9% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month [1]

根据克而瑞的初步数据，前百开发商2025年8月全口径销售总额由7月2294亿元人民币(下同)环比减4%至 2202亿元。8月楼市以公积金政策和松绑政策为主，一系列政策透过扩大公积金使用范围、进一步开放 限购、减轻租购负担等方式，持续激发市场活力。预计9月迎来传统营销旺季，市场活跃度可望迎来阶 段性回升。根据国家统计局公布的70大中城市商品住宅价格指数，7月新建商品住宅价指数年减 3.4%/0.3%，二手商品住宅价格指数同比/环比减5.9%/0.5%。 智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，追踪的20家主要上市开发商8月销售额环比上升14.2%，销售 均价及销售面积均上升，主要由于绿城中国(03900)、中国海外发展(00688)和保利置业(00119)表现优 异。该行预期资本市场情绪好转，一些领先的民营企业可能会借机加速其债务重整进程。中长期继续看 好华润置地(01109)和越秀地产(00123)，二者均评级"买入"。 ...