21世纪经济报道记者 孙永乐 上海报道 为洞察下半年资本市场投资机会，兴业证券于5月20日至22日在上海举办"2025年资本市场论坛暨中期策 略会"。 其中，2025年度中期策略会于5月20日上午线上举行，会议展望了2025年下半年宏观经济形势、宏观中 期策略、海外市场及A股中期投资策略。 中国资产是明确的避风港 在全球动荡期，应对不确定的时代，兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东称，全球市场有三大配置机 遇：一是黄金、军工、数字资产；二是科技创新相关的机遇；三是中国资产迎来了配置的机遇期，中国 资产的重估可能刚刚开始。 值得注意的是，关于港股市场的投资策略，张忆东分析称，受益于国际秩序的重构，中国资产的重估会 驱动港股走出长牛，港股的深层逻辑开始发生变化。要战略性做多中国资产，拥抱港股的新时代。 张忆东表示，从行情的节奏看，2025下半年港股会呈现振荡向上，"风雨之后见彩虹"。分两个阶段：第 一阶段属于风雨之中，在二、三季度较长一段时间，在经济风险释放之前，港股会体现底部抬升的大箱 体振荡格局；但到了第二阶段，随着中国经济对冲政策逐步落地，中国经济在下半年将会充分消化关税 的影响，港股将会在三季度迎来基本面和风 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities suggests that after a turbulent period, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to trend upwards starting in the second half of 2025, following the full digestion of tariff impacts on the Chinese economy [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market may maintain a "bottom-lifting large box oscillation" pattern before fully digesting tariff impacts, with potential for improvement in fundamentals and risk appetite thereafter [1] - The U.S. economy is projected to face a downturn in the second and third quarters of 2025, with persistent inflation and challenges in monetary policy affecting market confidence [3][4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three strategic asset classes during the current period of international order restructuring: gold, military industry, and digital assets [2] - The focus on technology and new consumption sectors is highlighted, with an emphasis on distinguishing between genuine growth and market noise [8] - The upcoming peak period for the unlocking of restricted shares from April to September 2025 presents buying opportunities for genuine growth stocks, as adjustments from unlockings and reductions are seen as noise [7][8] Group 3: Sector Highlights - The report emphasizes the importance of new consumption trends, including service consumption, spiritual consumption, and AI consumption, which are expected to drive growth in the Chinese market [5] - The technology sector is noted for its breakthroughs, showcasing China's competitive strength in areas such as AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] Group 4: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The restructuring of the international order is expected to benefit the Hong Kong stock market, with a wave of quality companies listing and increased inflow of domestic and international capital [6] - The report anticipates a long-term bull market for Hong Kong stocks driven by the revaluation of Chinese assets and the influx of new economy companies [6][7] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests a strategic long position in the Hong Kong stock market, with a focus on both offensive and defensive measures [7] - The trend of "A-share characteristics" in Hong Kong is expected to enhance market activity, allowing for a broader range of investment opportunities beyond traditional blue-chip stocks [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience and potential of the Chinese economy amidst global geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism, highlighting the importance of leveraging existing policies to capitalize on the opportunities presented by the revaluation of Chinese assets [1][2]. Policy Utilization - The recent easing of China-US trade tensions is expected to positively impact the prices of imported and exported goods, with China's exports to the US being more than three times its imports from the US, suggesting a greater positive effect on domestic prices [3]. - The central bank's monetary policy is likely to remain stable despite the trade negotiations, focusing on a proactive approach to maintain economic stability [4][5]. Asset Revaluation Logic - The revaluation of Chinese assets is driven by technological advancements and innovation, which are seen as core engines for productivity and economic development [6]. - Four main reasons support the ongoing revaluation logic: 1. Systemic support from China's large market size and complete industrial chain [8]. 2. The emergence of new industries like AI and renewable energy, enhancing overall productivity [8]. 3. A robust policy toolbox, including a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% for 2025, providing flexibility to counter external shocks [8]. 4. The current low valuation of Chinese assets, indicating significant room for recovery and growth [9]. Market Outlook - The revaluation of Chinese assets is expected to lead to an upward shift in the valuation of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with the latter showing more significant structural recovery potential due to long-standing liquidity discounts [10]. - The investment logic for Chinese assets is anticipated to shift from low valuation and high dividends to a focus on high growth sectors, particularly in technology, with a new valuation model emerging that emphasizes core business earnings and innovation metrics [10].

袁超展望称，宏观政策将进入观察期，立足将已推出的现有政策用好用足。 近日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布后，中国资产市场有积极反应。未来，中美贸易政策走向 及其对中国资产的影响备受关注。 为此，证券时报记者专访了分管国信证券经济研究所的高管袁超。他表示，前期中国已打出政策组合 拳，增强中国资产应对外部环境变化的能力，当前关键在于用好用足现有政策。 袁超认为，中国经济韧性足、潜力大，在超大规模市场纵深、全产业链体系加速重构的背景下，中国经 济中长期发展具备坚实基础，资产重估的内在逻辑并未改变。 他谈到，目前中国资产的吸引力已从"估值修复"向"技术驱动+资产重估"切换，未来如果政策红利持续 释放、科技突破转化为盈利增长且地缘风险边际缓和，外资主动型长线资金或将加速入场。 用好用足现有政策 袁超接受证券时报记者采访时表示，中美贸易摩擦的缓和有利于中国进口产品价格回落，中国出口产品 价格回升。考虑到中国对美出口金额是中国对美进口金额的三倍多，因此"关税战"降温对产品价格回升 的推动作用或大于对产品价格回落的拖累。整体来看，这或拉动国内CPI（消费者物价指数）和PPI（工 业品出厂价格指数）企稳回升。 在此背景下， ...

5月16日，三大指数集体低开，截至发稿深成指、创业板指反弹飘红，汽车、机械设备、有色金属、国 防等板块涨幅居前。中证A500当前跌幅0.19%。 东莞证券认为，市场自4月初回调后当前已有所修复，市场情绪亦升至相对稳定区间。"一行一局一 会"政策逐步落地等因素有助于坚定投资者长期信心、稳住资本市场预期，不断为市场积攒做多动能。 但考虑到上方或存在一定抛压，短期市场或延续震荡态势，中长期维度仍坚定看好中国资产重估。 中原证券认为，2025年一季度A股归母净利润同比增速由负转正，中小盘股盈利修复显著，TMT、消费 细分领域景气度回升。预计短期市场以稳步震荡上行为主，市场有望延续结构性行情，政策支持与流动 性宽松为市场提供底部支撑，科技成长与消费复苏为双轮驱动主线。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 相关ETF方面，A500指数ETF（159351）下跌0.10%，成交额超8亿元，换手率近4%。成分股方面，均 胜电子涨停，盈峰环境、新易盛、拓普集团等多股跟涨。 A500指数ETF（159351）紧密跟踪新一代标杆指数中证 ...

Group 1 - The central bank's recent financial statistics for April indicate that the moderately loose monetary policy is effective, supporting credit expansion and economic recovery [3][6] - M2 balance reached 325.17 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8%, exceeding market expectations of 7.2% [3][5] - The total social financing (TSF) increased by 1.16 trillion yuan in April, with a cumulative increase of 16.34 trillion yuan in the first four months, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.61 trillion yuan [5][6] Group 2 - The issuance of government bonds is the main driver of social financing growth, with net financing of 4.85 trillion yuan in April, a year-on-year increase of 3.58 trillion yuan [5] - A series of monetary policies have been implemented since September 24, with a significant reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [6][7] - Global asset management giants have turned optimistic about Chinese stocks, with firms like Nomura raising their ratings and reallocating funds to China, indicating a positive outlook for Chinese assets [7][8] Group 3 - The CSI A500 Index ETF (563880) is highlighted as a preferred investment option, focusing on high-quality new assets and attracting long-term capital [8] - The CSI A500 Index has a unique index compilation advantage, including a mechanism for mutual connectivity and ESG screening, making it appealing to global investors [8] - The CSI A500 Index ETF has the lowest comprehensive fee rate in the market and offers a monthly evaluation of dividends, providing investors with predictable returns [8]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the profitability of Hong Kong stocks is stabilizing and leading the recovery compared to A-shares, with total revenue growth of 2.4% and net profit growth of 7.4% in the 2024 annual report [3][8][9] - The report highlights that the gross profit margin TTM is 9.3% and ROE TTM is 12.4%, both showing slight improvements compared to the first half of 2024 [3][8][12] - The report notes that the capital expenditure for non-financial sectors in Hong Kong stocks is declining significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.3% [29][30] Group 2 - The report states that sectors such as technology, consumption, and pharmaceuticals are experiencing simultaneous increases in both volume and price, with TMT and pharmaceutical sectors showing significant profit margin improvements [31][34][36] - The financial and real estate sectors, along with TMT, have shown revenue growth rates of 1.8%, 9.7%, and 9.0% respectively, indicating a positive trend [31][32] - The report emphasizes that the ROE for TMT, consumption, and pharmaceuticals has improved by 1.3, 1.9, and 1.5 percentage points respectively, indicating a positive contribution from both sales net profit margin and asset turnover [34][35] Group 3 - The report identifies that the computer and media sectors have shown significant fundamental improvements, while the real estate, power equipment, and coal sectors have experienced profit deterioration [42][43] - The overall net profit growth for Hong Kong stocks is recorded at 7.4%, with significant contributions from non-bank financials, media, and transportation sectors [42][43] - The report highlights that the gross profit margin TTM has improved in sectors such as media, social services, and transportation, while deteriorating in power equipment, coal, and steel sectors [45][47] Group 4 - The report points out that the industry concentration in Hong Kong stocks is notably high, with several sectors like oil and petrochemicals, retail, and media having a CR3 concentration exceeding 80% [51][53] - The report indicates that major companies such as Tencent, Meituan, and Alibaba have contributed significantly to the profit growth of their respective sectors [51][57] - The report also notes that the number of companies with improved net profit growth in the transportation and computer sectors remains significant, while retail and social service sectors lag behind [51][56]

热门板块方面，银行板块A股总市值突破10万亿元大关，再创历史新高，此外，中国农业银行、交通银 行、上海银行、成都银行等多只银行股今日盘中创上市以来最高纪录。有分析认为，公募基金新规将显 著推动A股银行股估值修复，此外宽货币带动国债收益率下行，以及保险预定利率或进一步下调，也将 有助于银行板块中期跑出绝对收益。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 5月14午后，三大指数纷纷拉升翻红。截至收盘，上证指数涨0.86%，深成指涨0.64%，创业板指涨 1.01%，中证A500指数涨0.9%，盘面上，保险、物流及港口航运等板块涨幅居前，热门ETF方面， A500ETF基金(512050)单日成交额超38亿元，位居同类第一。持仓股中，"中"字头领涨，中远海发、中 国人保、中国太保等涨势靠前。 相关ETF全称：华夏中证A500ETF（512050），联接基金(A类:022430;C类:022431) 展望后市，华西证券认为，"中国资产"重估正当时，正步入全产业链的优势阶段，一方面，中国在过去 的逆全球化环境中已体现制造业全产业链的优势。虽然市场担忧外需回落，但历史经验显示出口回落阶 段A股也能走出行情。另一方面，资本市场已成为稳预 ...

5月12日盘后，中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展， 大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方在初 始的90天内暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应在初始的90天内暂停实施24%的反制关税。 核心资产优质抓手—A500ETF基金（512050）近期斩获多个同类第一 说到中国资产估值重塑，浓眉大眼、基本面良好的核心资产或直接受益。而当我们在谈论核心资产时， 大家也许会瞬间想到是茅台和宁王这样的蓝筹股，对，但不全对，核心资产是一个组合，是能反映经济 发展动能，能在经济向上周期跑赢通胀、经济增速，在经济向下周期抗跌的资产组合。 当下来看，或许编制独特的中证A500指数更能符合这个定义，指数采取行业均衡配置与龙头优选双策 略，实现细分行业全覆盖，并通过循环选样法保持动态平衡，融合价值与成长属性，既分散风险，又捕 捉成长机遇。指数前十大权重股中，既有像贵州茅台、、中国平安、招商银行、长江电力、美的集团、 紫金矿业、兴业银行等传统大市值白马，又有像宁德时代、亚迪、东方财富这样的新兴成长行业龙头。 如果大家对这一宽基指数感兴趣，可 ...