Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the market's expectation of weak employment data for November, leading to a rise in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures trading around $4,378 per ounce [1] - The article notes that the upcoming employment data is crucial for determining the direction of interest rates, with expectations of a 50,000 increase in non-farm payrolls and a peak unemployment rate of 4.5% this year [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the job market is under pressure, suggesting that job creation may have shifted to negative growth [1] Group 2 - DWS Americas' fixed income head, George Catrambone, emphasized that the employment data to be released on Tuesday is likely the most significant single data point for next year's trends, impacting interest rate movements [1] - The article mentions that due to the weak labor indicators prior to the data release, there may be substantial rate cuts anticipated [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, with some dissent among members regarding the decision, while also announcing the restart of reserve management purchases [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's new interest rate is set at 3.75%, down from the previous 4.00% [2] - There were three dissenting votes during the meeting, with two members opposing the rate cut and one advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [2] - The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates that 6 out of 19 officials do not support the rate cut, and the median path for 2026 remains unchanged [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 6 were reported at 236,000, higher than the expected 220,000 [2] - The U.S. trade deficit for September was revised to $59.3 billion, which is narrower than the expected $63.3 billion, marking the smallest deficit since June 2020 [2] - China's CPI for November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, while the M2 money supply growth was reported at 8%, below the market expectation of 8.2% [2] Group 3: Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the Bank of England's interest rate decision on December 18, the European Central Bank's deposit rate announcement, and the U.S. November CPI and non-farm payroll data release on December 18 [3]

Industry Knowledge Platform - Crypto space is a knowledge-intensive platform requiring continuous learning and adaptation [1] - Participants need to understand macroeconomics, including interest rate decisions (Federal Reserve rate hikes/cuts), CPI, PPI, non-farm payroll, unemployment rate, USD index, and capital flows [1] - Participants need to understand on-chain data, including on-chain transactions, trading depth, and funding rates [1] Investment and Risk - Knowledge of macroeconomics and on-chain data is crucial for navigating the crypto market [1] - Understanding derivatives such as options and futures contracts is essential [1]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 鹰派降息变鸽派，中期路径仍待就业数据 决定 ——2025 年 12 月 fomc 点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 13 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 戴思崴 | 执业证书编号：S0860525040001 | | daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 12 月鹰派降息或在预期之内，未来货币政 | 2025-12-09 | | --- | --- | | ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Sweden's unemployment figures have risen, with the unemployment rate reaching 9.0% in November 2025, marking the third month of the year at this annual high [1] - The number of unemployed individuals in Sweden has increased, with a specific focus on youth unemployment, which stands at 155,000 individuals [1] - The youth unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 24 is reported at 23.8%, indicating a significant challenge in the job market for younger demographics [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has prioritized concerns over the labor market, leading to a 25 basis point rate cut with a 9-3 voting outcome [1] - There are indications that if the labor market remains weak, policymakers may lean towards further rate cuts in the future [1] - Jerome Powell highlighted that employment growth may have been negative in recent months, suggesting a need for more accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Powell referred to a "systematic overestimation" of job growth, with a preliminary estimate indicating that employment growth was overestimated by 911,000 over the past 12 months [2] - The balance between supporting the labor market and controlling inflation will be central to policy-making as the Fed approaches 2026 [2] - There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding the direction of interest rates, with some opposing the recent cut and others suggesting further easing may be necessary [2] Group 3 - If inflation is subsiding while the labor market remains weak, the Fed is expected to adopt a more accommodative stance, especially with Powell set to step down in May [3] - Market expectations indicate that conditions for further rate cuts will be met if labor demand weakens and unemployment rises [3] - Futures markets suggest that the next rate cut may not occur until April of next year, with a possibility of two or even three cuts in 2026 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - The Fed ended 2025 with continued interest rate cuts, totaling 75 basis points for the year. The policy focus shifted from concerns about inflation rebound to addressing employment downward pressure. The threshold for restarting rate cuts in 2026 is expected to increase, depending more on the pace of employment slowdown and the effectiveness of alleviating commodity inflation related to tariffs. [5][30] - The Fed's restart of RMP is expected to ease the previous liquidity tightening situation. However, internal disagreements among officials have intensified, and with key events such as the Fed chairmanship change and mid - term elections in 2026, the stability of monetary policy has decreased. It is expected that the Fed will maintain a "wait - and - see" attitude in the first half of 2026, and changes in the second half may depend on the new chairman's policy orientation and the economic outlook due to fiscal expansion. [5][30] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Decision and Market Reaction - On the early morning of December 11, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates for the third consecutive time, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5% - 3.75%, and the reserve balance rate and discount rate to 3.65% and 3.75% respectively. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, a cumulative 75 basis points, reducing the federal funds target rate from 4.5% to 3.75%. [4][7] - After the interest rate decision was announced, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 4.18%. The three major U.S. stock indexes rose, and the U.S. dollar index briefly rose above 99 points. During the press conference, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield turned downward, the U.S. stock rally continued to expand, the U.S. dollar index returned to around 98.5, COMEX gold first fell then rose, and crude oil prices declined. [8] 2. Interest Rate Statement - Focused on labor market pressure, policy outlook, and Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). The description of the unemployment rate was changed to "the unemployment rate has risen as of September". The statement added the expression "the extent and timing" for future interest rate adjustments, last seen in December 2024, which may imply a higher threshold for future rate cuts. It also added that the committee believes the reserve balance has fallen to an adequate level and will buy short - term U.S. Treasuries as needed to maintain a continuous and adequate supply of reserves. [4][12][16] 3. Economic Forecast - GDP growth forecasts for the next four years were raised, while the unemployment rate forecast for the following year and inflation forecasts for this and next year were slightly lowered. The December dot - plot predicts one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027, with the median remaining the same as in September. However, there is a high degree of dispersion among the 19 Fed officials providing forecasts, indicating significant disagreements on the subsequent rate - cut magnitude and increasing policy uncertainty. [18][19] 4. Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) - Core Purpose: To increase the bank system's reserve scale by purchasing short - term Treasuries and other assets, addressing the recent surge in funding prices. Since 2023, the scale of the overnight reverse repurchase tool ONRRP has dropped significantly to near zero, and the bank reserve scale has returned to the 2020 level. The Fed's long - term balance sheet reduction and the U.S. government shutdown have also drained short - term liquidity, with the SOFR remaining persistently higher than the EFFR since September 2025, with the spread reaching a maximum of 36 basis points. [2][20][22] - Bond - buying Operation: Starting from December 12, it plans to purchase $40 billion in Treasury bills over the next 30 days. The subsequent purchase amount will be adjusted according to the reserve supply outlook and seasonal fluctuations. According to Powell, the neutral monthly purchase level may be between $20 billion and $25 billion. [2][22] - Historical Operation: The last time the Fed carried out RMP was in 2019. In mid - September 2019, the SOFR was nearly 300 basis points higher than the EFFR. The Fed announced the launch of RMP on October 11, 2019, buying Treasury bills at a rate of $60 billion per month to maintain the reserve level at or above that of early September 2019. [2][22] - Comparison with QE: Unlike QE, which lowers long - term interest rates by buying long - term Treasuries and then reduces borrowing costs, RMP aims to replenish the bank system's reserves by buying short - term Treasuries, ensuring an adequate reserve scale without indicating a change in the monetary policy stance. [3][23] 5. Labor Market - Both labor supply and demand are slowing down, and employment data may overestimate the actual situation. From June to September 2025, the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 4.4%. Since April, the average monthly non - farm employment increase was about 40,000, but after adjustment, it may actually have decreased by about 20,000 per month. The continuous and gradual cooling of the labor market might be the main reason for the continued rate cuts. [5][24] 6. Inflation - Non - tariff factors have made positive progress, and inflation caused by tariff factors may peak in the first quarter of 2026. It is maintained that the impact of tariffs on inflation is one - time rather than continuous. In September, the U.S. core CPI year - on - year decreased from 3.1% in August to 3.0%, and the month - on - month growth rate dropped from 0.3% to 0.2%. Among sub - items, prices of tariff - sensitive goods such as clothing, furniture, and entertainment products increased month - on - month to varying degrees, while the housing rent in core services decreased, indicating a continued decline in service inflation, but the spill - over effect of commodity inflation caused by tariffs still exists. [5][27]

近几个月来，劳动力市场的疲软预期持续压制消费者信心。密歇根大学12月初步调查结果显示，多数受 访者预计未来一年美国失业率将走高。 美联储官员在周三召开的议息会议上，连续第三次宣布降息，以支撑美联储主席鲍威尔口中"逐渐降 温"的劳动力市场。尽管相较于9月的经济预期，美联储并未上调明年失业率预测值，但鲍威尔直言，当 前就业市场面临"显著"下行风险。 据了解，初请失业金人数通常在节假日前后波动较大，预计这一趋势将持续至年底。不过，本周公布的 数据已处于2025年以来的高位区间。近几周，百事可乐(PEP.US)、惠普(HPQ.US)等企业相继公布裁员计 划，10月全美裁员规模更是创下2023年初以来的新高。 作为平滑短期波动的关键指标，上周初请失业金人数四周移动平均值微升至21.675万人;截至11月30日 (含感恩节假期)当周续请失业金人数183.8万人，市场预期为194.7万人。 美国劳工部周四发布的数据显示，在感恩节假期当周初请失业金人数大幅回落之后，上周该数据出现激 增，创下新冠疫情暴发以来的最大单周涨幅。 截至12月6日当周，美国初请失业金人数增加4.4万人，升至23.6万人。这一幅度刷新2020年3月以来 ...

Group 1 - The market reaction to the Fed's commentary was influenced by prior positioning, with expectations for a more hawkish stance than what was delivered [2][3] - The Federal Reserve aims to achieve a neutral policy rate, with estimates ranging from 2.75% to 3.75%, indicating uncertainty in the exact target [3][4] - The Fed remains data-dependent, with upcoming payroll and CPI reports expected to impact their decision-making [5][6] Group 2 - Since the Fed began cutting rates over a year ago, the 10-year Treasury yield has increased, highlighting a dislocation in market expectations [8][10] - Treasury yields have generally been lower year-to-date, with the U.S. performing well among developed markets [9] - The persistence of high real yields, despite rate cuts, suggests market confidence in structural growth and productivity improvements [11][12]

周四凌晨公布的美国至12月10日美联储利率决定为3.75%，符合市场预期，前值为4.00%. FOMC声明显示，降息25个基点至3.50%-3.75%，为连续第三次会议降息，米兰支持降息50个基点，古 尔斯比和施密德支持维持利率不变。将考虑进一步调整利率的幅度和时机。点阵图中值与9月份完全一 致，预计明后两年各降息一次。 通胀较年初有所上升，仍处于相对高位，与此前表述一致。在SEP中下调明年通胀预期。经济活动一直 在以温和的速度扩张，前景的不确定性依然很高，与此前表述一致。全线上调未来三年GDP增速。删除 了对失业率"较低"的描述，认为近几个月就业方面的下行风险有所上升。明年失业率预测维持在4.4%不 变。 地区 仓库 期货 增减 上海 中储吴淞 97953 8944 外运华东虹桥 91292 0 中工美供应链 428719 17365 合计 617964 26309 广东 深圳威豹 162636 12446 总计 780600 38755 【基本面消息】 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货12月11日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计780600千克，今日仓单较上一 日上涨38755千克。 沪银主力维持震荡格局，今日白 ...