Group 1 - The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank released an alternative model estimating the U.S. unemployment rate at approximately 4.3% for October 2025, consistent with the official rate from August, indicating a moderate cooling of the labor market without signs of sharp deterioration [1] - The model previously estimated the September unemployment rate at 4.34%, slightly lower than August's 4.35%, as the official data was not released due to the government shutdown [1] - The model integrates various private data sources, including job platforms and payroll processing services, showing a high correlation with historical official unemployment rates [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming monetary policy meeting, responding to weakened economic momentum and uncertainty in the current "data vacuum" environment [2] - Analysts suggest that an early rate cut could help mitigate potential shocks if the unemployment rate suddenly rises due to economic downturns, which could significantly alter the labor market landscape [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Fed's model indicates that the U.S. unemployment rate for October is approximately 4.3%, consistent with August's official reading, suggesting a cooling labor market without signs of severe deterioration [1] Group 1: Unemployment Rate Insights - The Chicago Fed previously estimated the unrounded unemployment rate for September at 4.34%, compared to 4.35% in August [1] - Due to the absence of official unemployment data for September, the model relies on the previous month's real-time estimate to project October's figures [1] - The Fed warns that this method may accumulate errors if the government shutdown persists, but expects limited impact in the next one to three months [1] Group 2: Labor Market Trends - The current estimates align with a slight upward trend in unemployment claims in some states, indicating a noticeable cooling in the U.S. job market without entering a recessionary decline [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming meeting, as a precaution against economic slowdown and data gaps, while also preemptively addressing potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate [1]

Group 1 - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is in its final stages, with five candidates shortlisted, including current Fed governors and external candidates from the White House and Wall Street [1][2] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is leading the interview process and plans to submit a list of "excellent candidates" to President Trump after Thanksgiving [1][2] - President Trump has criticized current Chair Powell for not significantly lowering interest rates, which he believes has hindered economic growth [2] Group 2 - The upcoming Fed Chair nomination may coincide with a 14-year term vacancy for a Fed governor in early 2026, making the selection particularly significant [2] - Market expectations indicate a potential 25 basis point rate cut announcement in the upcoming Fed meeting, highlighting the importance of the new Chair's stance on interest rates and policy independence under political pressure [2] - Some regional Fed presidents may voice dissent regarding rate cuts, with a notable division among Fed decision-makers on future monetary policy [3] Group 3 - Concerns about inflation are resurfacing, with officials noting that inflation rates have exceeded the Fed's 2% target for four consecutive years, potentially raising long-term inflation expectations [4] - The new Philadelphia Fed President emphasized the importance of stabilizing long-term inflation expectations as a key measure of monetary policy credibility [4]

Core Viewpoint - Cyprus is projected to achieve a real GDP of €29.42 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9% driven by strong performances in information and communication, hospitality and catering, construction, and wholesale and retail trade including motor vehicle repairs [1] Economic Growth - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth forecasts for Cyprus, predicting a growth rate of 2.9% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026 [1] - The strong economic growth in Cyprus is attributed to key sectors such as information and communication, hospitality, construction, and retail trade [1] Inflation and Unemployment - The inflation rate in Cyprus is expected to significantly decrease to 0.7% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, which are the lowest levels in the Eurozone [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.5% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026, indicating a relatively low level of unemployment [1] Global Economic Context - The IMF forecasts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with developed economies expected to grow at a rate of 1.6% [1] - Ongoing trade tensions and uncertainties are anticipated to continue impacting the global economic outlook [1]

（文章来源：新华财经） 芝加哥联储称，实时模型显示，美国10月失业率为4.35%，与8月官方报告基本持平。 ...

Key Points There are growing signs of economic weakness, making the Federal Reserve's job harder. Meanwhile, stock prices have soared faster than underlying earnings, pushing valuations higher. Powell warns there's "no risk-free path" going forward -- here's what to do. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › The current bull market is showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon. The S&P 500 climbed nearly 40% from its April lows. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite soared even h ...

Core Viewpoint - Financial markets are anticipating a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations that rates will drop to the range of 2.75% to 3.0% by the end of 2026, down from the current 4% to 4.25% [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - Futures traders are betting on a clear downward trend in interest rates, while options markets have incorporated this scenario into pricing [2] - Analysts from major financial institutions, including Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, predict multiple rate cuts in the coming months due to a slowing economy and easing inflation [1][2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Perspective - The Federal Reserve's officials have a more cautious outlook, projecting a 2026 year-end rate of 3.4%, which is significantly higher than market expectations [2] - The Fed's dual mandate of "maximum employment and price stability" does not signal an urgent need for aggressive rate cuts, with core inflation expected to remain above the target [2][3] Group 3: Changes in Federal Reserve Composition - The Federal Reserve will see new members next year, which could reshape policy discussions, particularly with the potential for a new chairperson following Powell's term [4] - The ongoing legal disputes involving Fed officials add another layer of uncertainty to the voting balance within the board [4] Group 4: Regional Federal Reserve Presidents - The voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will include a mix of pragmatic and hawkish officials, indicating that rate cuts may not follow a predetermined schedule [5][6] - Concerns about inflation and economic growth are prevalent among regional Fed presidents, with some advocating for a cautious approach to further rate cuts [6] Group 5: Economic Challenges Ahead - The economic backdrop for 2026 presents challenges, including potential inflationary pressures from tariffs and signs of slowing consumer spending [6] - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with rising unemployment and increased layoffs, which could lead to more rate cuts if the trend continues [6] Group 6: Diverging Views on Rate Cuts - Some analysts believe there will only be one rate cut in 2026, suggesting a "cut-pause-reassess" cycle rather than a continuous decline as priced in by the market [7] - The anticipated rate cuts may occur in a staggered manner, with a total reduction of 0.75 percentage points expected by early next year [7]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Greece's economy will demonstrate strong resilience, with a projected GDP growth of 2% in 2025, nearly double the average growth rate of the Eurozone [1] Economic Growth - Greece's GDP is expected to grow by 2% in 2025 and maintain the same growth rate in 2026, indicating a robust economic recovery [1] - This growth rate is nearly double the average for the Eurozone, highlighting Greece's strong economic performance [1] Inflation - The IMF predicts an inflation rate of 3.1% for Greece in 2025, which is above the Eurozone average [1] - Inflation is expected to decrease to 2.5% in 2026, with the goal of reaching 2% by 2027 [1] Unemployment - The unemployment rate in Greece is projected to improve, with expectations of a decline to 9% this year and further down to 8.4% by 2026 [1] - This trend indicates a positive labor market outlook as the economy continues to recover [1]

宏观要闻 上海前三季度GDP历史首次突破4万亿元 上海市统计局周三发布数据显示，根据地区生产总值统一核算结果，前三季度全市实现地区生产总值 40721.17亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.5%。分产业看，第一产业增加值64.26亿元，增长0.9%； 第二产业增加值8448.67亿元，增长3.9%；第三产业增加值32208.24亿元，增长5.9%。 国家统计局周三发布的9月份分年龄组失业率数据显示，9月份，全国城镇不包含在校生的16-24岁劳动 力失业率为17.7%，较8月回落1.2个百分点。青年失业率在连续两个月上涨后首次回落。 全国秋粮收获近八成 9月青年失业率小幅回落至17.7% ...

Core Viewpoint - The unemployment rate in Hong Kong increased from 3.7% to 3.9% during the period from July to September, indicating a slight deterioration in the labor market [1] Employment Data Summary - The total number of employed individuals in Hong Kong decreased by approximately 6,100, bringing the total employment to 3,674,500 [1] - The total labor force also saw a reduction of about 1,500, resulting in a total labor force of 3,830,100 [1] - The underemployment rate remained stable at 1.6%, suggesting that while unemployment has risen, the level of underemployment has not changed [1]