Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) anticipates a slowdown in economic growth due to escalating global trade tensions, deteriorating financial market sentiment, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] Economic Growth Projections - The ECB projects that the Eurozone economy will grow by 0.9% in 2023, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027 [1] Inflation Outlook - The inflation outlook for the Eurozone is more uncertain than in the past, with global trade frictions presenting both upside and downside risks [1] Risks Associated with Global Trade - Upside risks include the fragmentation of global supply chains, while downside risks involve a decline in demand for Eurozone export products [1]

泰国议会批准规模达1154亿泰铢的支出计划，旨在支持经济增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve exhibits significant internal divisions regarding interest rate predictions, with a median expectation of two rate cuts by 2025, but a wide range of forecasts from no cuts to a reduction of 75 basis points, highlighting a notable split among policymakers [1][3]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The degree of disagreement among Federal Reserve officials is at a ten-year high, primarily due to fundamental differences in balancing inflation control and economic growth [3][4]. - The June SEP report indicates a polarized distribution of predictions for the federal funds rate in 2025, with a gap of 50 basis points between the most common and second most common forecasts, the highest in the past decade [4][11]. - The internal split among officials suggests potential for more debates and dissent in the coming months, although the uncertainty regarding the 2025 rate path is not unprecedented [6][10]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Despite a high level of disagreement on core PCE inflation predictions, which reached a one percentage point divergence, this has not translated into a historic split in federal funds rate expectations, partly due to a relative consensus on unemployment rate forecasts [9][10]. - The dual peak distribution in the June dot plot reflects fundamental disagreements on how to balance inflation control with economic growth, with some officials concerned about the risks of economic slowdown while others focus on persistent inflation [11].

正如刘淼所言，AI已成为本届夏季达沃斯论坛的核心议题之一。 从议程设置到企业展区，与AI相关的讨论和应用展示占据显著位置。在会场展区内，天工机器人、脑机交互 设备、全自动无人机巡检系统等AI产品吸引了大量参会者驻足观看。 与每年1月在瑞士达沃斯小镇召开的世界经济论坛年会不同，夏季达沃斯更加聚焦商业未来和技术进步。 世界经济论坛第十六届新领军者年会（以下简称"2025夏季达沃斯"）即将拉开帷幕，证券时报记者第一时间探 访年会现场，捕捉2025夏季达沃斯的亮点。作为观察全球经济脉动和产业变革浪潮的重要窗口，本届夏季达沃 斯论坛参会人数创近年之最，充分彰显年会的影响力和中国超大规模市场的吸引力。 "这是我第二次参会，我个人最关注的话题是科技，特别是与人工智能（AI）相关的。"在夏季达沃斯开幕前一 日，证券时报记者在现场采访了图灵新智算创始人刘淼，他分享了对本届夏季达沃斯的前瞻观察。 面对一系列外部挑战，今年以来中国经济顶住压力，经济运行总体平稳，新动能成长壮大，较强的经济韧劲和 活力不断显现。世界经济论坛官网显示，"解读中国经济"是本届年会最受关注的会议之一，嘉宾们希望探讨由 科技驱动的经济增长模式为中国带来的新增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a people-centered development approach in China's economic policies, highlighting the need for economic growth to support and improve people's livelihoods, thereby creating a virtuous cycle between economic development and social welfare [1][2][4]. Economic Growth and Livelihood Improvement - Economic growth and livelihood improvement are interdependent, with the ultimate goal being the well-being of the people. The focus has shifted from merely measuring economic growth to evaluating the quality of life improvements [2][3]. - Since the 18th National Congress, significant progress has been made in areas such as education, social security, and healthcare, enhancing people's sense of gain, happiness, and security [2][4]. Investment in Livelihood Improvement - Livelihood improvement serves as a crucial driver for economic growth, with investments in housing, education, healthcare, and infrastructure directly contributing to economic activity. For instance, in 2024, China plans to construct and renovate 130,000 kilometers of rural roads and achieve a rural drinking water coverage rate of 94% [3][4]. - The enhancement of living conditions and education levels leads to an increase in human capital, which in turn boosts productivity and economic growth. In 2024, the labor productivity in China is projected to reach 174,000 yuan per person, with a real growth rate of 4.9% [3][4]. Policy Focus on Livelihood Improvement - The Chinese government has shifted its economic policy focus towards improving people's livelihoods, aiming to eliminate poverty and achieve common prosperity. Since the 18th National Congress, nearly 99.9 million rural poor have been lifted out of poverty [4][5]. - The current economic environment necessitates a more pronounced focus on the quality of human resources, addressing demographic changes such as aging and declining birth rates, and fostering high-quality development through innovation and talent [5][6]. Consumer Behavior and Economic Growth - As per international experience, once a country's GDP per capita exceeds $10,000, consumer spending becomes a significant driver of economic growth. In contrast, China's current consumer contribution to economic growth is relatively low, indicating a need for policies that enhance consumer confidence and spending [6][7]. - Improving living standards is essential for sustaining economic growth, with a focus on high-quality employment, education, healthcare, and social security systems to enhance overall consumer capacity [7][9]. Addressing Livelihood Shortcomings - There is a need to invest more resources in addressing livelihood shortcomings, particularly in employment, education, healthcare, and social security, to create a positive feedback loop between livelihood improvement and economic growth [8][9]. - Specific measures include enhancing employment support, improving educational quality, expanding healthcare access, and increasing social security benefits to foster a more equitable and prosperous society [9][10].

6月24日至26日，世界经济论坛第十六届新领军者年会（又称"夏季达沃斯论坛"）将在天津举办。本届 会议汇聚来自90多个国家和地区的政府、企业、媒体机构、学术界以及国际组织的约1800名嘉宾。"在 中国举办夏季达沃斯论坛凸显了亚洲作为全球增长引擎的角色。预计2025年亚洲将推动全球近60%的经 济增长，中国将贡献其中的一半。"世界经济论坛执行董事兼大中华区主席梁锦慧日前在接受本报记者 专访时表示。 本届夏季达沃斯论坛的主题为"新时代企业家精神"，与会嘉宾将围绕"解读全球经济""中国展望""剧变 中的产业""投资人类与地球""新能源与材料"五大方向进行探讨。 "中国和亚洲对全球经济增长、贸易投资以及技术创新作出重要贡献，本届论坛也将重点关注中国和亚 洲。"梁锦慧表示，本届论坛有多场会议聚焦中国主题，内容涵盖经济发展、创新创造、制造业、能源 转型、人工智能等方面。"我们希望共同探讨中国独特的人工智能发展路径，帮助各方了解中国创新生 态系统以及通过技术驱动转型所取得的成果，介绍高质量共建'一带一路'项目的最新进展和未来展 望。" 自1979年以来，世界经济论坛与中国一直保持良好合作关系，见证了中国改革开放40多年来的 ...

一、本周主要事件 1.当地时间6月16日，美国白宫发表声明称，特朗普与英国首相斯塔默共同宣布了贸易协议的一般条款。据悉在一般条款中，美国计划为英 国汽车进口设定每年10万辆的配额，征收关税税率为10%。英国承诺，努力满足美国对输美钢铝产品供应链安全以及相关生产设施所有权性 质的要求。在英国满足这些要求的前提下，美国计划迅速对英国生产的钢铝制品以及某些衍生钢铝制品设定"最惠国"税率配额。 2.当地时间6月17日，日本央行结束为期两天的货币政策会议，决定继续将政策利率维持在0.5%左右不变。与此同时，日本央行还决定放缓 削减购债的步伐。该央行自2024年夏季开始缩减国债购买规模，目前每季度减少4000亿日元左右。 3.当地时间6月18日，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这是美联储货币政策会议连续第四次决定维持利 率不变。同时，美联储发布的经济预测显示，美联储官员对美国今明两年的经济增长预期均作出下调。其中，今年经济增速预测中值从此 前的1.7%降至1.4%。 4.当地时间6月18日，英国央行议息会议决定，维持关键利率在4.25%不变。英国央行在声明中表示，英国实际GDP增长依 ...

Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have become a focal point for the market, despite the expectation that geopolitical risks would increase demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The market remains cautious, partly due to the hawkish stance maintained by Federal Reserve officials [1] - If Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could exceed $100, leading to heightened fear and panic among investors [1] Currency Volatility - The volatility of the USD/JPY pair is the highest across all time frames, particularly with a one-month volatility rate of -0.028 [2] - The USD/JPY pair rose to 147.39 yen following the U.S. attack on Iran, with traders holding $12.5 billion in yen long positions [2] - The Japanese yen has depreciated by 2.4% against the dollar since the Israeli missile strikes on Iranian targets began [2] Impact on Japan's Economy - Japan's heavy reliance on imported oil makes it vulnerable to rising oil prices, which threaten its trade balance and weaken the yen's attractiveness [3] - The spike in oil prices has worsened Japan's trade conditions, further diminishing its economic competitiveness [3] Eurozone Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's natural gas prices are highly correlated with the euro exchange rate, with rising gas prices likely to weaken the euro and reduce the current account surplus [5] - Natural gas prices have surged from approximately $2.8 to over $4 since late April, indicating a potential further shrinkage of the Eurozone's surplus [6] - The Eurozone's economic growth exceeded expectations at the beginning of the year, but lost momentum in April due to U.S. tariff policies [6] Swiss Franc and Safe-Haven Demand - The Swiss franc is supported by safe-haven demand and signals from the Swiss National Bank indicating no inclination to lower interest rates further [7] - The current USD/CHF pair is trading within a range established over the past week, with market participants remaining cautious about directional choices [7] UK Economic Activity - The UK's PMI data exceeded expectations, yet the GBP/USD exchange rate fell by 0.1% to $1.3430, indicating a muted market reaction [8] - Manufacturing activity in the UK has contracted for the ninth consecutive month, although the contraction rate is the smallest since January [8] - The June services PMI rose from 50.9 to 51.3, while the manufacturing PMI improved from 46.4 to 47.7, suggesting a slight recovery despite ongoing challenges [8]

美联储决策者们的不确定性在上周美联储最新的"点阵图"中已显而易见，该图表概述了未来的利率走 向。尽管有八名官员认为2025年仍将有两次降息，但有七名官员预计根本不会降息——这一数字高于此 前持此看法的四名官员。 随着美联储官员们为7月的下一次会议做准备，并衡量特朗普的贸易、税收和移民政策对通胀及经济增 长路径的影响，特朗普上周末对伊朗三个核设施的打击，又为这些讨论注入了新一层未知数。 一些美联储观察人士担心，油价的持续上涨将加剧特朗普关税已在美国国内造成的通胀混乱。 摩根大通的分析师曾警告称，一场持久的冲突以及关键的霍尔木兹海峡可能被关闭，或将油价推高至每 桶120美元，从而将美国通胀率推回到5%左右。 播客：伊朗遇袭难倒美联储 下载mp3 美联储本已在努力应对未来货币政策路径的诸多不确定性，而美国总统特朗普上周末对伊朗核设施的打 击，可能会让这条路径在短期内变得更加扑朔迷离。 在特朗普决定发动袭击前的几天里，美联储内部一位有影响力的理事确实更响亮地支持降息，他驳斥了 关于特朗普关税可能导致长期通胀的担忧。 另一方面，华尔街也流传着一种观点，认为这场冲突可能促使美联储比预期更早地降息。 牛津经济研究院首席美国 ...

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures experienced a rise, with Shanghai gold quoted at 781.30 CNY per gram, an increase of 0.03%, and Shanghai silver at 8770.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.35% [1] - International precious metals showed mixed results, with COMEX gold priced at 3369.60 USD per ounce, down by 0.44%, while COMEX silver was at 36.09 USD per ounce, up by 0.38% [1] Group 2 - The price movements of gold are influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, which has tempered expectations for rate cuts, putting pressure on gold prices [3] - The recent military actions by the U.S. against Iran's nuclear facilities have introduced new uncertainties into the global economy, leading to a sharp rise in energy prices, which could suppress consumer spending and investment activities [3] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist highlighted that rising oil prices, in the context of high tariffs from the Trump administration, could significantly pressure household consumption and overall economic growth [3] Group 3 - Last week, COMEX gold prices fell by 1.98% to 3384.40 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures dropped by 1.99% to 778.58 CNY per gram [4] - Current CME data indicates an 84.5% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, with a 15.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a 60% cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut by September [4]