巴西财政部副部长Galipolo：财政政策影响当前的通胀水平和市场预期，央行需要了解各类经济主体受 到的影响方式。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Cambodian government plans to gradually reduce fiscal budget deficits and public debt over the next three years to ensure fiscal stability and sustainability [2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Strategy - The government is implementing a "gradual fiscal consolidation" approach to balance fiscal stability, support sustained economic growth, and achieve long-term development goals [2]. - The fiscal budget deficit is targeted to be kept below 3% of GDP, decreasing from 3.08% in 2025 to 2.19% in 2026, remaining at 2.19% in 2027, and slightly increasing to 2.32% in 2028 [2][3]. Group 2: Revenue and Expenditure Projections - Total government revenue is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.3%, reaching 14.43% of GDP by 2028 [3]. - Total government expenditure is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.8%, reaching 16.74% of GDP by 2028, slightly lower than 16.83% in 2025 [3]. - Capital expenditure is expected to decrease by 10.9% in 2026 compared to 2025 due to a significant reduction in foreign aid and concessional loans [3]. Group 3: Taxation and Economic Context - Despite the economic recovery in 2023, government tax revenue has not increased correspondingly, with a significant slowdown in tax growth from 2021 to 2023 [4]. - The new investment law providing generous tax incentives has contributed to the decline in tax revenue, prompting recommendations for the government to expand the tax base while implementing tax reductions [4]. - The IMF has noted that due to weakened economic momentum and increased tax exemptions, the budget deficit is expected to rise to 3% of GDP this year, slightly higher than 2.8% last year [4].

Core Viewpoint - The 20-year U.S. Treasury yield closed below the 30-year yield for the first time in nearly four years, indicating a normalization of the long end of the yield curve [1] Group 1: Yield Curve Dynamics - The long-term Treasury yields have been rising due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates [1] - The increase in yields is also attributed to bets that expanding fiscal deficits will lead to an increase in Treasury supply [1] Group 2: Historical Context - On Monday, the 30-year Treasury yield was slightly higher than the 20-year yield, marking the first occurrence since October 2021 [1] - In 2022, the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle caused yields across all maturities to rise, with the 20-year yield at one point exceeding the 30-year yield by as much as 30 basis points [1]

Group 1 - Concerns over Japan potentially increasing bond issuance have impacted the global long-term bond market, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury prices [1][2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.42%, marking the longest rising cycle since April [1] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield is approaching 5%, while Japanese and German 30-year bond yields are also reaching significant levels [1][2] Group 2 - The global long-term bond market is facing turmoil as traditional buyers exit the market amid increasing bond supply, particularly affecting the UK and Japan [4] - Japanese long-term bonds have seen significant price drops, with the 30-year bond yield exceeding 3%, nearing historical highs [4] - Major Japanese life insurance companies, traditionally significant buyers of long-term bonds, are avoiding such securities due to rising interest rates and supply pressures [4] Group 3 - In the U.S., budget deficit concerns are bringing bond supply back into focus, with upcoming auctions for 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries [5] - Recent strong economic data has diminished expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, impacting U.S. Treasury performance [5] - The swap market now indicates two potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, contrasting with earlier expectations of three cuts [5]

英国首相发言人Wells：英国政府正着力控制公共财政。 ...

英国首相发言人：英国政府正努力稳定公共财政。 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观经济研究*专题报告 2025 年 07 月 08 日 宏观经济研究 财政政策与居民消费的关系（上） 我们在之前的报告中已经阐述，李嘉图等价理论在中国愈发明显，政府赤字 率的上升会降低居民的边际消费倾向。这种观点饱受挑战。以克鲁格曼为代 表的经济学家认为流动性陷阱（去杠杆过程中）李嘉图等价关系不会存在。 本文通过 RBC 模型来模拟财政支出对居民消费和消费倾向的影响。 根据理论分析和实证研究，我们发现在财政平衡的要求下，财政支出对居民 消费具有一定的挤出效应。但在居民消费意愿主动下降的情况下，财政支 出更有利于稳定消费和经济。不过这也在一定程度上会降低居民消费倾 向。通过 RBC 模型和模拟，我们发现劳动供给弹性是影响居民消费倾向 变动的主要影响因素，通过将劳动供给弹性分为我们之前的测算值-0.12， 以及作为比较的 0.8 两种情况，结果显示劳动供给弹性越高，居民消费倾 向越低，财政乘数越低。 本文我们没有考虑债务融资下的财政支出以及流动性陷阱下的财政支出 对居民消费的影响，这些将在未来的研究中进行深入探讨。 风险提示：国内宏观经济政策不及预期；数据提取不及时；财政政策、货币 政策超预期 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced volatility, initially dropping below $3,300 to $3,296.37 before rebounding to close at $3,336.19 [1] - The U.S. stock market saw a collective decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.94% to 44,406.36 points, the S&P 500 down 0.79% to 6,229.98 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.92% to 20,412.52 points [1] - The U.S. government announced new tariffs on imports from 14 countries, with rates ranging from 25% to 40% depending on the country [4] Group 2 - The EU is still negotiating with the U.S. for a bilateral trade agreement before July 9, amidst rising tensions over tariffs [5] - Concerns are growing that the new tariffs could exacerbate inflation in the U.S., impacting consumer spending [6] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the market is factoring in potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts remaining this year [8] Group 3 - The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to maintain its cash rate at 3.85%, contrary to market expectations of a rate cut [9] - Recent unexpected rate cuts by central banks in Poland and Norway highlight a trend of monetary policy adjustments in response to economic conditions [11] - Investor sentiment in the U.S. stock market has shifted, with a recovery in indices despite ongoing concerns about tariffs and inflation [11]

虽然关税收入能在一定程度上缓解财政压力，但公共债务占GDP的比例仍预计将在2034年前后攀升至 119%。大多数减税措施不太可能显著提振消费，而最大的支出削减将集中在医疗保障和食品补助领 域。鉴于该预算案对经济增长的实际拉动作用有限，Lombard Odier维持此前对美国经济增速的预测： 2025年增长1.3%，2026年增长1.4%。 【白银技术面分析】 尽管美国政府称其财政计划为"一项宏大而美丽的法案"，但Lombard Odier却难以从中看到任何值得乐 观的地方。该机构认为，这项预算案在宏观经济层面几乎没有提振作用，反而可能进一步恶化财政前 景。战略分析师Filippo Pallotti指出，该法案预计将在未来十年内使联邦赤字扩大约4万亿美元；如果减 税措施被永久化，赤字规模甚至可能更高。 周二（7月8日）欧市盘中，白银走势偏弱运行，截至发稿报36.70美元/盎司，跌幅0.11%。特朗普8月1 日的关税实施以及潜在的惩罚性关税带来了政策不确定性，但强劲的经济数据持续削弱贵金属的避险溢 价。 【要闻聚焦】 白银的技术面走势表明，交易者正等待更深幅度的回调后再重新入场。尽管中期上升趋势在关键均线上 方保 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 特朗普推迟对等关税大限，已经向多国发出 25%——40%不等的关税威胁。另 | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 外市场美国财政扩张既成事实，多国财政继续扩大，中长期货币宽松、不确定 | | | | 性仍然较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【765-790】 | | | | 未来几年一个确定性的趋势是各国政府将像美国一样更多依靠财政赤字刺激经 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 济，白银需求有支撑。白银盘面 8700 附近支撑较强，受基本金属和黄金价格情 绪影响较大，高位区间思路操作，做好仓位控制。【8800-9075】 | | | | 特朗普关税施压，宏观情绪回落，短期非美地区铜库存紧张和铜精矿扰动对铜价有 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 支持，铜回调企稳后仍可逢低试多，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜关注区间 | | | | 【78000，80000】 | | | | 特朗普关税施压，宏观情绪回落，基本面锌精矿加工费修复，国内锌库存小幅 | | 锌 | 震荡 | 累库，国内消费淡季，锌承压回落，长 ...