行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 12 日 美国关税冲击再起，关注黄金、稀 土等板块 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20251006-20251010 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37%，深证成指下跌 1.26%，沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，有色金属（申万） ...

2025.10.12 本文字数：2060，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 齐琦 在金价突破每盎司4000美元、全球贵金属市场持续升温的背景下，现货白银也迎来改写历史的时刻。 10月9日，伦敦白银现货价格首次突破50美元/盎司关口，最高触及51.23美元/盎司，创下历史新高。截 至10日，报50.126美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅达到73.53%，表现甚至优于同期上涨约53%的现货黄金价 格。 上海一位贵金属分析师对记者称，白银同时具备金融与工业双重属性，在光伏、新能源等绿色需求快速 扩张的背景下，价格弹性明显高于黄金，短期仍有望继续领涨贵金属板块。 伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）发布的报告显示，分析师们对于白银价格的乐观态度不仅与其工业和投资 需求有关，也将白银与黄金价格走势通常较为相似的趋势纳入了考量范围。且对供需失衡加剧的担忧以 及各国央行逐渐放宽的货币政策，都将使得投资者对白银的购买兴趣持续增加。 金价大涨带动白银创新高 当前白银的强势表现主要受美联储降息预期升温、地缘政治风险加剧以及工业需求持续增长等多重因素 推动，同时投资者对白银ETF的配置热情也为银价提供长期支撑。 尽管相较于每盎司4000美元的 ...

核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 黄金稀土或再迎高光时刻 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 41 周） 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 12 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | --- | --- | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | AI 发展为何离不开金属软磁粉芯：——AI | 2025-10-09 | | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting strong performance and favorable market conditions [8]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the recent increase in gold prices is driven by heightened risk aversion due to renewed US-China trade tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][8]. - Industrial metals are expected to continue strengthening due to supply disruptions and robust demand, particularly in copper and aluminum [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are projected to perform well due to strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.80%, while the SW Non-ferrous Index increased by 11.89% during the reporting period [1]. - Precious metals, including gold and silver, saw significant price increases of 6.48% and 2.48%, respectively [1]. 2. Base Metals 2.1 Price and Stock Correlation - The report notes that aluminum prices are supported by a seasonal increase in demand and controlled inventory levels, with a current price of 20,950 RMB/ton [27]. - Copper prices are influenced by supply disruptions and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with a recent price of 10,374 USD/ton [12][41]. 2.2 Industrial Metals - The report highlights that aluminum production is expected to remain low due to increased direct supply ratios and seasonal demand, which supports price stability [25][26]. - Copper supply is under pressure from production cuts by major mining companies, which is expected to sustain higher prices [2][41]. 2.3 Lead, Tin, and Nickel - Lead prices have shown resilience due to tight supply conditions, with recent prices around 20,026 USD/ton [58]. - Nickel prices are fluctuating due to regulatory changes in Indonesia and supply concerns, currently priced at 122,180 RMB/ton [60]. 3. Precious Metals and Minor Metals 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have surged due to strong safe-haven demand, with a recent price of 4,035.50 USD/oz, reflecting a 6.48% increase [14][74]. - Silver prices are also rising, driven by industrial demand and investment interest, currently at 47.52 USD/oz [14][74]. 3.2 Energy Metals - Lithium demand remains robust, with prices supported by strong consumption in electric vehicles and energy storage, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate priced at 71,300 RMB/ton [14][3]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with current prices around 331,500 RMB/ton [3][14]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, citing strong earnings forecasts and favorable market conditions [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuations in gold prices should not be interpreted as signs of a market crash, as they are part of normal market behavior driven by underlying economic factors [1][3]. Market Dynamics - Concerns about gold "crashing" often stem from fears of buying at high prices, but gold is fundamentally supported by global monetary credit and demand for safe-haven assets [3]. - Recent geopolitical tensions led to a temporary increase in gold prices, followed by a correction, which is a normal market reaction rather than a crash [3]. Economic Indicators - A significant change in the underlying logic that supports gold prices would be required for a true market crash, such as aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, a robust global economy reducing the need for gold as a safe haven, or a sudden strengthening of the US dollar [3][4]. - Current trends indicate that central banks are still purchasing gold, and market speculation is focused on potential interest rate cuts rather than hikes, suggesting continued support for gold prices [4]. Investment Strategy - Investors should clarify their motivations for buying gold: whether for short-term gains or as a long-term asset protection strategy [4]. - For long-term investors, monitoring Federal Reserve interest rates, global risk sentiment, and central bank gold purchases is more relevant than short-term price fluctuations [4].

记者丨江佩霞 见习记者张嘉钰 编辑丨张楠 视频编辑丨许婷婷 设计丨郑嘉琪 一场席卷全球的避险浪潮，正在将贵金属市场推向沸腾的顶点。 在全球多重风险因素叠加下，黄金价格突破每盎司4000美元的历史性关口。 截至10月10日，据21财经工作室统计，自2022年以来，国际金价累计涨幅已达123%，展现出强劲的上 扬势头。进入2025年，这一涨势愈发迅猛，年内涨幅已突破53%。尤其值得关注的是，金价在今年4月 22日首次突破3500美元/盎司大关后，仅用169天便一举冲上4000美元关口，如此惊人的涨速，堪称"火 箭式"上涨，引发全球投资者高度关注。 而市场的"沸腾"并不仅限于黄金。现货白银涨势更为迅猛，年内涨幅超70%跑赢黄金，价格破50美元。 据21财经工作室测算，若投资者在一年前购入100g黄金并持有不动，一年收益高达3万元，收益率妥妥 超50%。 100克黄金售价突破11万 图源/21财经客户端 记者10月11日摄 金价持续飙升让没赶上趟的人"肉疼"——买金饰的成本涨得太猛了。 像准备结婚买"三金"的年轻人、想给长辈买金镯当礼物的人，可能感触最明显：以某品牌金饰为例，去 年同期100克金饰预算8万元左右就能拿 ...

Core Viewpoint - A global wave of risk aversion is driving the precious metals market to new heights, with gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce for the first time in history, reflecting a cumulative increase of 123% since 2022 and a 53% rise in 2025 alone [1][11]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of October 10, 2023, gold prices have shown a remarkable increase, with a "rocket-like" surge from $3500 to $4000 per ounce in just 169 days [1]. - The price of gold jewelry has also risen significantly, with the cost of 100 grams of gold jewelry now approaching 110,000 yuan, an increase of over 30,000 yuan compared to the previous year [7][4]. - Despite the rising gold prices, foot traffic in gold stores has decreased, indicating a potential shift in consumer behavior due to higher costs [8]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Gold Price Increase - The primary drivers of the current gold price surge include increased gold purchases by central banks and a significant rise in gold ETF holdings, with global central banks net purchasing gold for 19 consecutive quarters [11][14]. - In September 2023, global gold ETFs saw a record inflow of $17.3 billion, marking the highest monthly inflow ever [14]. - Predictions suggest that gold could reach $4500 per ounce in the first quarter of 2024, with some analysts forecasting a long-term bull market for gold, potentially pushing prices to $5000 per ounce within the next decade [18]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - A majority of central banks (95%) plan to continue increasing their gold reserves in the coming year, reflecting a strong bullish sentiment in the market [18]. - Analysts from various institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Citic Securities, are optimistic about gold's future price trajectory, citing geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar as supportive factors [18]. - However, there are concerns that a resolution of global geopolitical tensions could lead to a decline in gold prices, highlighting the dual nature of market sentiment [18].

Core Viewpoint - A global wave of risk aversion is driving the precious metals market to unprecedented heights, with gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce for the first time in history [1] Group 1: Gold Price Surge - As of October 10, gold prices have seen a cumulative increase of 123% since 2022, with a year-to-date rise of over 53% in 2025 [1] - Gold prices broke the $3500 per ounce mark on April 22, 2023, and reached $4000 in just 169 days, marking an extraordinary "rocket-like" increase [1] - The current price of gold in China has reached approximately 1180 RMB per gram, translating to around $11,000 for 100 grams, reflecting a significant increase in consumer costs [4][6] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market has outperformed gold, with prices rising over 70% this year, surpassing $50 per ounce [3] Group 3: Investment Trends - Global central banks have been net buyers of gold for 19 consecutive quarters since Q3 2020, indicating a strong institutional demand [12] - In September, global gold ETFs saw a record inflow of $17.3 billion, marking the highest monthly inflow ever [12] - A significant 95% of surveyed central banks plan to increase their gold holdings in the next year, with predictions of monthly purchases reaching 70 tons by 2026 [16] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Market opinions are divided regarding the sustainability of gold's price increase, with some analysts predicting prices could exceed $4500 per ounce in the near future [16][18] - The long-term bullish outlook for gold is supported by ongoing central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, and a decline in confidence in traditional currency systems [18]

Core Insights - Silver prices have recently surged, with spot silver reaching a record high of $51.22 per ounce on October 9, indicating a shift in the precious metals market dynamics [1] - The increase in silver prices is driven by both industrial demand and investment attributes, with a year-to-date increase of over 70% [1][2] - The global silver supply has faced a deficit for five consecutive years, leading to a significant decline in inventory and increased spot premiums [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The strong performance of silver is attributed to its dual role as an industrial metal and a store of value, influenced by the ongoing energy transition and rising demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks have enhanced silver's appeal as a monetary and safe-haven asset [1][2] - The price of silver has outperformed gold this year, with a 70% increase compared to gold's 50% rise, reflecting silver's stronger industrial characteristics [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The recent tightness in the silver market is evidenced by rising leasing rates and abnormal premiums in the London market, indicating a potential short squeeze [2] - The gold-silver ratio is currently around 82 in the domestic market and 85 internationally, significantly above historical averages, suggesting that silver is relatively undervalued [2] - The ongoing bullish trend in precious metals is driven by concerns over the sustainability of the dollar system and geopolitical uncertainties, increasing the demand for safe-haven assets [3] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the core issue in the silver market is the declining inventory against the backdrop of a bullish precious metals market, presenting increasing investment opportunities [3] - Short-term supply constraints may lead to further price increases, necessitating close monitoring of the spot-futures price spread, leasing rates, and delivery volumes [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold has recently surged to over $4000 per ounce, reaching a historical high, as investors shift from traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasury bonds to gold due to concerns over the U.S. economy and debt levels [1][3][19] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The traditional view of U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe investment is changing, with investors questioning the reliability of these assets amid rising debt pressures [3][5] - Gold is perceived as a more secure asset since it is not reliant on any country's credit, providing a tangible value compared to government-issued debt [5][9] - Various geopolitical factors, including tariffs from the previous U.S. administration and ongoing conflicts, have contributed to increased investment in gold [5][9] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases since 2022, with annual acquisitions exceeding 1000 tons, indicating a long-term strategic shift away from dollar reliance [9][11] - China's central bank has notably increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, reflecting a broader trend among nations to diversify their foreign reserves [11][19] - This sustained demand from central banks acts as a stabilizing force for gold prices, even in the face of potential sell-offs by individual investors [11][19] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Institutional investors are now more bullish on gold, with firms like Goldman Sachs raising their price forecasts for gold significantly, indicating a shift in market sentiment [13][15] - Predictions for gold prices have been adjusted upwards, with estimates reaching as high as $4900 by the end of 2026, driven by continuous inflows of capital [15][19] - The positive outlook for gold has also positively impacted other precious metals like silver and palladium, which have seen substantial price increases this year [17][19]