黄金，又跌了。 一季度全球黄金投资需求同比大增 世界黄金协会4月30日发布的2025年一季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示， 一季度全球黄金需求总量 （包含场外交易）达1206吨，同比增长1%，为2016年以来最高的一季度水平 。其中，全球黄金投资需 求量为551.9吨，同比大增170%。 世界黄金协会资深市场分析师Louise Street表示， 过去10个月，投资者纷纷把目光转向黄金ETF ，自 2024年三季度以来持续加大配置力度。今年，亚洲地区的黄金ETF流入量仅4月份就已超过该地区一季 度的总和。不过，该板块仍有增长空间，目前全球黄金ETF持仓量仍比2020年峰值低10%。展望未来， 宏观经济形势仍难以预测，这种不确定性或为金价带来进一步上行潜力。未来数月内，来自机构、个人 及官方部门的黄金避险需求或将进一步攀升 。 来源： 中国经济网微信综合每日经济新闻、新华网、中国证券报等 5月1日，现货黄金跌破3280美元/盎司，现报3278.6美元/盎司，跌幅0.29%。 "最多时一天卖10公斤" 据媒体报道，当前不少消费者更加关注黄金价格走势，或希望以较低的价格"上车"，或希望将手中金饰 高位变现，也有消费 ...

金价大跌 金价突然跳水！ 5月1日，金价大幅下挫，现货黄金一度跌超50美元，盘中最大跌幅超过1.6%。截至记者发稿时，现货黄金价格报3240.62美元/盎司，跌幅为1.45%。最近几天，金价 持续回调。 | स्त्रम्बे | | | | 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 4小时 日 周 月 ▼ | | SPTAUUSDOZ[伦敦金现] 11:02 价 3240.620 涨跌 -47.635(-1.45%) 均价 0.000 成交量 0 | | | | | F9 叠加 九转 画线 工具 ③ 2025/05/01 | | > WE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3342.260 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1.64% | | 3328.759 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1.23% | | 3315.258 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.82% | | 3301.756 | | ...

另有一家门店的柜姐称，店里金条无现货，需要的话可以先下订单晚点再过来取货。她还称近期金条销售火爆，"最多的时候一天卖十公斤"。 此外， 回收平台的黄金回收业务也十分火热。转转方面表示，近期，转转门店黄金回收热度持续上涨，到店咨询量及回收用户量增长显著。4月以来，黄 金回收克重总量环比上月增长超70%，单次回收最大克重达2600克。 一季度全球黄金投资需求同比大增 世界黄金协会4月30日发布的2025年一季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，一季度全球黄金需求总量（包含场外交易）达1206吨，同比增长1%，为2016 年以来最高的一季度水平。其中，全球黄金投资需求量为551.9吨，同比大增170%。 有媒体了解到，深圳水贝金展珠宝广场的一名商家4月27日说："从上个星期（4月14日当周）开始，（金条）就'和疯了一样'。"这名商家指着柜台内摆放 金条的地方说："26日这儿都是空的，今天刚补的货，每天都是几公斤几公斤地出。" 前述商家说，现在只要是金条就很紧俏，"（顾客）不管你是什么克重，是金条人家就要，大克重的更容易被抢光。" 世界黄金协会资深市场分析师Louise Street表示， 过去10个月，投资者纷纷把目光 ...

一季度黄金供应总量同比基本持平，达1206吨。尽管一季度金矿产量创历史新高，但回收金供应量的小 幅下滑抵消了这一增量。科技用金需求与2024年一季度持平，稳定在80吨。 【深圳商报讯】（记者邱清月）世界黄金协会4月30日发布2025年一季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》。 数据显示，在金价创纪录地突破3000美元/盎司大关的情况下，一季度的全球黄金需求总量（包含场外 交易）达1206吨，同比增长1%。 黄金ETF需求复苏，推动一季度黄金投资需求总量增长逾一倍，达552吨，同比增长170%，创下自2022 年一季度以来的最高季度水平。金价涨势及关税政策的不确定性促使投资者纷纷为避险而涌向黄金市 场，进而推动全球黄金ETF加速流入，一季度累计流入量达226吨。 2025年已是全球央行连续净购金的第16年，一季度全球官方黄金储备增加244吨。尽管这一需求量较去 年同比下滑21%，但与过去三年各央行持续大规模购金的季度平均水平持平，整体表现依旧坚挺。 随着一季度全球金价20次突破历史新高，金饰需求受到高金价压力，金饰市场依然相对保持韧性，尤其 体现在金饰消费额方面。一季度的金饰消费支出同比增长9%，达350亿美元，除中国以 ...

Core Insights - The World Gold Council's report indicates that global gold demand reached a historical high in Q1 2025, driven by significant inflows into gold ETFs, which were a key factor in the rise of gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Demand and Prices - In Q1 2025, the average gold price reached $2860 per ounce, a 38% increase year-on-year [3]. - Total global gold demand, including over-the-counter investments, grew by 1% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period since 2016 [3]. - Gold recycling decreased by 1% year-on-year as consumers opted to hold onto their gold in anticipation of further price increases [3]. Group 2: Investment Demand - Gold ETF inflows surged, leading to a 170% year-on-year increase in total gold investment demand, reaching 552 tons, the highest since Q1 2022 [4][7]. - Central banks globally purchased a net 244 tons of gold in Q1, aligning with the normal quarterly purchase levels over the past three years [7]. - Demand for gold bars and coins remained high at 325 tons, exceeding the five-year quarterly average by 15% [7]. Group 3: Jewelry Demand - Gold jewelry consumption in China fell to 125 tons in Q1, a 32% decline year-on-year, marking the weakest performance since 2020 [9]. - Despite the drop in volume, the monetary value of gold jewelry consumption increased by 9% year-on-year to $35 billion [7]. - The rising gold prices led consumers to shift towards smaller, more affordable gold products, while others chose to wait and see [9][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The report suggests that gold prices will continue to be a critical factor influencing jewelry sales in China, with potential further declines in demand expected if prices remain high [11]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are likely to sustain strong investment demand for gold [16].

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. government has shifted its stance on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with a call for a "comprehensive and permanent ceasefire" instead of accepting Russia's proposal for a three-day ceasefire [1] - The Trump administration has presented a "take it or leave it" framework to Ukraine, demanding recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and Ukraine's abandonment of NATO membership [3] - Ukraine's President Zelensky has firmly rejected these demands, stating that Ukraine will never legally recognize territorial losses [3] Group 2: Energy Security and Sovereignty Crisis - The potential long-term conflict could lead to renewed European dependence on Russian gas, impacting energy security and economic growth in Europe [4] - Zelensky's refusal to compromise may result in reduced U.S. military aid, weakening Ukraine's defense capabilities against Russian forces [4] - Diverging positions between European nations and the U.S. on Crimea could threaten NATO unity and lead to differing approaches on sanctions and trade negotiations with Russia [4] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Increased geopolitical uncertainty is driving short-term demand for gold, with prices rebounding to $3,313 per ounce as of April 30, 2023, amid concerns over the stalled negotiations [5] - The U.S. dollar's credibility is under pressure due to Trump's tariff policies and rising fiscal deficits, leading to a significant increase in global central bank gold purchases [6] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, which could influence gold prices depending on the Federal Reserve's actions [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Key upcoming events include the U.S. ADP employment data on April 30, which could reinforce rate cut expectations if underwhelming, and Russia's Victory Day parade on May 9, which may escalate the conflict [8] - Trump's potential cessation of support for Ukraine could lead to a reevaluation of European security dynamics, increasing volatility in gold prices [8]

今年以来，黄金投资需求激增，推动一季度全球黄金需求总量创下近几年的同比最高水平。 世界黄金协会4月30日发布的2025年一季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，一季度全球黄金需求总量(包含场外交易)达1206吨，同比增长1%。黄金ETF 需求复苏，推动一季度全球黄金投资需求总量增长逾一倍，达552吨，同比增长170%，创下自2022年一季度以来的最高季度水平。同时，一季度金条与金 币需求总量同比增长3%至325吨，创下金条和金币季度需求的历史第二高纪录。 中国市场方面，数据显示，中国市场黄金ETF需求激增，一季度流入约167亿元人民币(约23亿美元，合23吨)，创历史新高。金价的飙升与空前的流入量推 动黄金ETF资产管理总规模(AUM)和总持仓双双突破历史纪录，分别达到1010亿元(约139亿美元)和138吨的高位。 受益于金条和金币需求激增及金饰需求的季节性反弹，一季度黄金总需求较上季度环比回升31%。需求总额高达1675亿元(约230亿美元)，环比增长44%， 同比增长16%。 展望未来，世界黄金协会资深市场分析师路易丝.斯特里特(Louise Street)表示，宏观经济形势仍难以预测，而这种不确定性或为金 ...

今年以来，黄金投资需求激增，推动一季度全球黄金需求总量创下近几年的同比最高水平。 世界黄金协会4月30日发布的2025年一季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，一季度全球黄金需求总量（包含场外交 易）达1206吨，同比增长1%。黄金ETF需求复苏，推动一季度全球黄金投资需求总量增长逾一倍，达552吨，同比增 长170%，创下自2022年一季度以来的最高季度水平。同时，一季度金条与金币需求总量同比增长3%至325吨，创下 金条和金币季度需求的历史第二高纪录。 中国市场方面，数据显示，中国市场黄金ETF需求激增，一季度流入约167亿元人民币（约23亿美元，合23吨），创 历史新高。金价的飙升与空前的流入量推动黄金ETF资产管理总规模（AUM）和总持仓双双突破历史纪录，分别达 到1010亿元（约139亿美元）和138吨的高位。 受益于金条和金币需求激增及金饰需求的季节性反弹，一季度黄金总需求较上季度环比回升31%。需求总额高达 1675亿元（约230亿美元），环比增长44%，同比增长16%。 展望未来，世界黄金协会资深市场分析师路易丝·斯特里特 （Louise Street）表示，宏观经济形势仍难以预测，而这 种不确定 ...

Core Insights - The World Gold Council's report indicates that global gold demand reached 1206 tons in Q1 2025, a 1% year-on-year increase, driven by record gold prices surpassing $3000 per ounce [1][2] - Investment demand for gold surged, particularly through ETFs, with a total of 552 tons in Q1, marking a 170% increase year-on-year and the highest quarterly level since Q1 2022 [1][2] - Central banks continued to purchase gold for the 16th consecutive year, adding 244 tons to official reserves, despite a 21% year-on-year decline in this demand [1] Investment Demand - Gold ETF demand rebounded significantly, with inflows totaling 226 tons in Q1, reflecting a strong shift towards gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] - Retail investment in gold bars and coins in China increased by 3% year-on-year to 325 tons, marking the second-highest quarterly demand for these products [1] Jewelry Demand - Despite high gold prices negatively impacting jewelry demand, the consumption expenditure on gold jewelry grew by 9% year-on-year to $35 billion, with all markets outside of China showing growth [2] Supply Dynamics - Global gold supply remained stable at 1206 tons in Q1, with record gold mine production offset by a slight decline in recycled gold supply [2] Market Outlook - The current market environment remains uncertain, with gold investment demand reaching its highest level for a first quarter since 2016, suggesting potential for further price increases [2]

超配（维持） 交运板块新思 交通运输行业 交通运输行业深度报告 2025 年 4 月 30 日 分析师：邓升亮 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523050001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： dengshengliang@dgzq.com.cn 申万交通运输指数走势 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 深 度 研 究 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 全球冲突新形势下交运板块的新篇章。近期全球冲突进入新形势，我们 认为，当前全球地缘政治关系的影响在交通运输板块的影响可能会表现 出以下两个主要方向：（1）全球不确定性上升可能加剧市场的避险情绪 需求；（2）全球需求下降的预期与OPEC+意外增产相叠加，可能导致原 油成本下降，从而刺激对油价敏感的运输行业。基于2025年全球经济新 形势的变化，我们在战略层面明确了稳健与进攻两大投资方向：（1）全 球不确定性提升或放大避险需求，强化公路等基础设施板块类债属性的 投资需求， ...