关于鲍威尔考虑辞职的消息突然刷屏。 美东时间7月11日，美国联邦住房金融局局长兼房利美和房地美董事会主席比尔·普尔特发表声明称："有报道 称美联储主席鲍威尔正在考虑辞职，这将是对美国的正确决定。"对此，美联储发言人拒绝置评。 在上述消息传出后，美股三大指数周五盘中一度短线跳水。有分析称，市场的负面反应凸显了投资者对美联储 潜在领导层变动的敏感性，尤其是在经济不确定时期。 与此同时，美联储官员的最新讲话也引发市场关注。芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比周五警告称，美国总统 特朗普公布的新关税可能再次引发通胀担忧，迫使美联储维持观望态度。 "鲍威尔考虑辞职" 美东时间7月11日，有媒体报道称，一位特朗普政府高级官员公开暗示，因美联储华盛顿总部翻新项目面临的 压力，美联储主席鲍威尔可能"考虑辞职"。 比尔·普尔特在 美国联邦住房金融局 (FHFA) 官网发表声明称："有报道称杰罗姆·鲍威尔正在考虑辞职，这让我 感到鼓舞。我认为这将是对美国的正确决定，经济将会繁荣。" 对于辞职传闻，美联储发言人拒绝置评，仅重申鲍威尔此前在4月4日的表态，即他打算完成其到2026年5月的 任期。 这场风波的导火索是，鲍威尔被指在国会就美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) should continue to adopt an accommodative monetary policy if the downside growth risks further hinder the process of controlling inflation [1] Group 1 - ECB Governing Council member Panetta emphasized the need for ongoing monetary easing in response to increasing downside growth risks [1]

金十数据7月11日讯，高盛集团策略师上调了对亚洲股市的预期，理由是宏观经济环境更加有利，关税 的确定性增加。以Timothy Moe为首的策略师在周五的一份报告中表示，MSCI亚太（除日本外）指数的 12个月目标指数上调了3%，至700点，这意味着在此期间以美元计算的回报率为9%。该团队还将港股 评级上调至"持股"（market weight），并称其将在美联储开启宽松周期、美元走弱的背景下成为主要受 益者之一。他们补充称，菲律宾等也是对这一趋势最为敏感、受益最大的市场之一。策略师们表 示："关税征收和宽松的货币政策可能是第三季度对亚洲股市的重要宏观影响。"他们指出，即便最终实 施的关税税率略高于当前的基线预期，"其对基本面增长的冲击可能不会像市场在第二季度初所担忧的 那样严重。" 高盛策略师：上调亚洲股票目标，调高港股评级 ...

从技术面来看，澳元 / 美元的支撑位和阻力位较为清晰。初步支撑位在 0.6505-0.6510 区间，更强的支撑位 则在 0.6480-0.6485 区间，这些位置是多方力量的重要防线，若价格跌破，可能引发进一步的下行压力。阻 力位方面，0.6560 和 0.6590 构成了上行路上的主要障碍，需要强劲的买盘推动才能突破。而在亚洲交易时 段，澳元 / 美元的波动区间为 0.6534-0.6549，显示出当前市场交投相对谨慎，多空双方处于暂时的平衡状 态。 综合来看，澳元 / 美元虽然在美元走软和澳洲联储暂停降息的支撑下出现小幅上涨，但特朗普关税政策引 发的市场紧张情绪、澳洲联储未来宽松政策的预期等因素，共同限制了其上行空间。短期内，澳元 / 美元 可能在现有区间内震荡整理，投资者需密切关注美联储政策动向、美国经济数据以及全球贸易局势的变 化，以把握澳元的后续走势。 美联储会议记录释放的信号也对市场产生了重要影响，其中显示 "大多数与会决策者" 预计今年晚些时候 降息是合适的。这一预期强化了市场对美联储宽松货币政策的判断，进一步压制了美元走势，间接为澳元 等非美货币提供了喘息之机。 君諾外匯发现澳元 / 美元在 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The "Big and Beautiful" bill has passed, the U.S. debt ceiling will still expand, Trump has repeatedly called for replacing the Fed Chairman, and a relatively loose monetary policy is needed to support it, so gold is expected to remain relatively strong [8][9] - The gold-silver ratio is at a high level, and some so-called safe-haven demand may flow to silver, but due to the relatively high volatility of silver itself, more attention should be paid to position control and stop-loss protection when operating, and the silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong pattern [9] Market News and Important Data - Trump's chief trade advisor Peter Navarro criticized Powell for refusing to cut interest rates, saying it could be his third major policy mistake in six years, and if he continues the tight monetary policy route at the July 29 Fed meeting, he will become the worst Fed Chairman in history [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On July 8, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 771.66 yuan/gram, closed at 776.22 yuan/gram, up 0.64% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 187,574 lots and an open interest of 179,131 lots. The night session opened at 774.98 yuan/gram and closed at 769.52 yuan/gram, down 0.65% from the afternoon close [2] - On July 8, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,856 yuan/kilogram, closed at 8,953 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 418,168 lots and an open interest of 338,144 lots. The night session opened at 8,940 yuan/gram and closed at 8,908 yuan/gram, down 0.10% from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 8, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.40%, up 0.05% from the previous trading day, and the 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.52%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On July 8, 2025, on the Au2502 contract, the long position changed by 79 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position changed by 46 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 245,162 lots, down 7.74% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2502 contract, the long position decreased by 231 lots, and the short position decreased by 170 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 715,924 lots, down 5.78% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 946.51 tons, down 1.15 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF position was 14,935.15 tons, up 66.41 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On July 8, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -0.23 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -665.35 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 86.70, down 0.27% from the previous trading day, and the price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 90.59, up 0.58% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On July 8, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 28,986 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 319,210 kilograms, down 41.92% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 13,086 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 21,270 kilograms [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the synchronized shift towards accommodative monetary policies by Switzerland, Sweden, and Norway in response to global economic slowdown and rising trade tensions, aiming to boost economic growth and stabilize weak inflation levels [1][4][6] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank announced a 25 basis point cut to 0% on June 19, marking its sixth rate cut since March 2024 and the end of a two-and-a-half-year period of positive interest rates, driven by easing inflation pressures and a weakening global economic outlook [3][4] - Sweden's central bank lowered its benchmark rate from 2.25% to 2.00%, the second cut this year, to stabilize inflation around the 2% target and stimulate weak domestic demand amid slowing GDP growth and a depressed housing market [3][4] - Norway's central bank also cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, the first reduction since 2020, with expectations of further cuts by the end of the year, potentially bringing rates down to 3.75% [3][4] Group 3 - The primary reasons for the collective rate cuts by European central banks include persistently weak inflation and the appreciation of local currencies, which pressure exports and financial market stability [4][5] - Weak inflation provides a "room for relaxation" in monetary policy, as commodity prices stabilize and supply chains recover, leading to a gradual decline in inflation rates across Europe [5][6] - The appreciation of local currencies, such as the Swiss franc, significantly hampers export competitiveness, with the USD/CHF exchange rate dropping nearly 10% by 2025, creating pressure on export-driven economies like Switzerland [5][6] Group 4 - The global economic integration means trade conflicts can lead to reduced investment and consumer confidence, particularly affecting small open economies like Norway and Sweden, prompting central banks to pursue monetary easing to lower financing costs and stabilize market expectations [6] - The collective rate cuts signal a strong message that global economic uncertainty is reshaping national policy orientations, with monetary policy returning to a loose stance to support economic stability amid inflation decline and trade tensions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand's meeting minutes indicate that monetary policy should remain accommodative to support economic growth [1] Group 1 - The central bank emphasizes the importance of maintaining a loose monetary policy to foster economic development [1] - There is a recognition of the need for continued support in light of current economic conditions [1] - The minutes reflect a consensus among policymakers on the necessity of an accommodative stance [1]

Report Summary Market News and Important Data - Trump sent tariff letters to 14 countries on August 1, 2025, imposing 25% tariffs on imported goods from Japan and South Korea, and 25% - 40% tariffs on Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, etc. An additional 10% tariff will be imposed on countries aligning with the anti - US policies of BRICS countries. The suspension period for reciprocal tariffs was extended to August 1 [1]. - White House officials stated that specific country tariffs and industry tariffs will not be stacked. The Fed Chair candidate Wash suggested lowering interest rates, and White House trade advisor Navarro called on the Fed Council to intervene in Powell's stance [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On July 7, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 775.38 yuan/gram, closed at 771.30 yuan/gram, down 0.74% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 190,256 lots, and the open interest was 175,760 lots. In the night session, it opened at 771.66 yuan/gram and closed at 775.68 yuan/gram, up 0.36% from the afternoon close [2]. - On July 7, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,919 yuan/kilogram, closed at 8,872 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 261,611 lots, and the open interest was 229,481 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,856 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,916 yuan/kilogram, down 0.19% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 7, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield closed at 4.35%, with a change of 0.05% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year yields had no available change data [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On July 7, 2025, in the Au2502 contract, the long position changed by 36 lots, and the short position changed by 13 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 265,734 lots, down 10.42% from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2502 contract, the long position decreased by 112 lots, and the short position decreased by 387 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract was 676,826 lots, down 20.03% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - On July 7, 2025, the gold ETF position was 947.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,868.74 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On July 7, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 13.16 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 613.51 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 86.94, down 0.22% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 90.06, with a change of - 1.64% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On July 7, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 38,836 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 549,594 kilograms, up 32.24% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,392 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 25,800 kilograms [7]. Investment Suggestions - Gold: It is still recommended to buy on dips for hedging operations, considering Trump may face more obstacles after promoting the "big and beautiful" bill, and such a bill requires a relatively loose monetary policy [8]. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Silver prices are slightly stronger than gold due to occasional rebounds in risk sentiment and the gold - silver ratio deviating from the central level for a long time. It is also recommended to buy on dips [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio on rallies [8]. - Options: Put on hold [8]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% in July, with further cuts expected in August and November, leading to a terminal rate of 3.10% [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for a 25 basis point cut in the cash rate to 3.60% during the July meeting, a prediction fully priced in by the market [1] - The expectation is for consecutive rate cuts in August and a final cut in November, resulting in a terminal rate of 3.10% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Weak GDP data and a slowdown in private demand suggest a risk of entering a deeper easing cycle [1] - The tone of private demand is expected to gradually become more moderate, while the labor market remains described as "tight" [1] Group 3: Policy Statement Expectations - The latter part of the policy statement is anticipated to remain largely unchanged, emphasizing inflation targets and a somewhat "restrictive" policy stance [1] - The phrase "severe downside scenario" may be removed due to the lack of updated monetary policy forecast statements [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to implement its first consecutive interest rate cut in six years, lowering the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% during the upcoming monetary policy meeting on July 8 [1] - The cumulative reduction in the current easing cycle will reach 75 basis points, supported by domestic economic data indicating low consumer confidence and weak household spending [1] - The market anticipates further rate cuts later in the year, potentially bringing the cash rate down to 3.1%, with 3.35% seen as a critical point for pausing policy to assess the impact of previous easing measures [4] Group 2 - The upcoming meeting is significant as it marks the first participation of new Treasurer Jenny Wilkinson in interest rate decisions, highlighting female leadership in Australia's core economic institutions [7] - The RBA's dovish stance aligns with recent rate cuts from central banks in Europe, Canada, and the UK, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's plans to maintain its policy until mid-2025 [7] - Market participants will closely monitor RBA Governor Michele Bullock's statements regarding future policy direction to gauge the pace and extent of the easing cycle [7]