Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has reached a 14-month high, with offshore RMB surpassing 7.02 and onshore RMB exceeding 7.03 [1][3] - The appreciation is driven by two main factors: external environmental changes and seasonal domestic demand, which have combined to initiate a sustained upward trend in the RMB [4][8] - The weakening of the US dollar, particularly after the Federal Reserve announced interest rate cuts, has diminished the dollar's attractiveness, leading to a relative appreciation of other currencies, including the RMB [6][8] Group 2 - The year-end demand for currency exchange has significantly contributed to the RMB's appreciation, as many companies need to convert USD to RMB for year-end payments [8][10] - The issuance of RMB-denominated bonds by foreign entities, such as Kazakhstan and Indonesia, indicates increasing international recognition of the RMB, supporting its long-term appreciation [12][14] - The RMB's appreciation has mixed effects: export companies face profit pressures, while import companies and consumers benefit from lower costs for foreign goods [16][22] Group 3 - Export companies are struggling with the rapid appreciation, as their USD-denominated orders yield less RMB upon conversion, impacting their profit margins [18][20] - In contrast, import companies and consumers enjoy lower prices for imported goods, making travel and overseas education more affordable [24][26] - The RMB's appreciation can help stabilize domestic prices and align with national strategies to boost consumption and economic growth [26][40] Group 4 - Market consensus suggests that the RMB will maintain a strong position in the short term, influenced by the ongoing weakness of the US dollar and year-end exchange demands [29][31] - The central bank is actively managing the exchange rate to prevent excessive volatility, making it challenging for the RMB to break through the 7.0 mark [31][33] - Companies are encouraged to adapt to these changes by utilizing hedging tools to mitigate risks associated with currency fluctuations [35][37] Group 5 - The ongoing appreciation of the RMB reflects broader trends in the global financial market and the internationalization of the currency [38][41] - Companies are advised to enhance their risk management capabilities and core competitiveness in response to currency fluctuations [40][41]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The RMB showed a significant strong performance against the US dollar at the end of 2025, with the offshore RMB exchange rate breaking through the key psychological level of 7.00, indicating a re - emergence of strong appreciation momentum [2]. - The appreciation of the RMB at the end of 2025 is driven by the resonance of internal and external factors, including the weakening of the US dollar index, the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread, and the concentrated release of seasonal year - end settlement demand [5][6]. - Although there are expectations for the RMB to appreciate and break through 7 and enter the 6 range in 2026, there are also potential risks such as geopolitical black - swan events, the domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations, and central bank foreign exchange policy adjustments [13]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. RMB's Strong Year - End Performance: Symbolic "Breaking 7" and Its Market Characteristics - **Offshore RMB "Breaking 7": The First Time Since September 2024** - At the end of 2025, the offshore RMB exchange rate broke through 7.00 during intraday trading on December 25, the first time since September 2024, attracting high market attention and indicating enhanced market confidence in the RMB [2]. - **Market Volatility Characteristics: Strong but Low - Volatility, Contrasting with the September 2024 Market** - The implied volatility of the RMB is at a historically low level, indicating a more rational and orderly appreciation process and providing a stable foreign - exchange environment for enterprises and investors [2]. - The RMB's strong performance at the end of 2025 is fundamentally different from the 2024 market fluctuations. The latter was driven by the global yen carry - trade unwind, while the former is based on the resonance of internal and external supply - demand factors [2][5]. II. Driving Forces for RMB Appreciation: Resonance of Internal and External Factors - **External Factors: Weakening US Dollar Index and Narrowing Sino - US Interest Rate Spread** - The Fed's interest - rate cuts led to the downward trend of the US dollar index, narrowing the Sino - US interest rate spread and providing an external environment for the RMB's appreciation [6]. - The seasonal contraction of market liquidity during the Christmas holiday exacerbated the weakness of the US dollar, contributing to the year - end situation of a weak US dollar and a strong RMB [6]. - The market is generally pessimistic about the US dollar's trend in 2026, and the divergence in the Fed's expected interest - rate cuts, the change of the Fed chairman, and the "de - dollarization" trend all add uncertainty to the long - term prospects of the US dollar [7]. - **Internal Factors: Concentrated Release of Seasonal Year - End Settlement Demand** - The concentrated settlement of foreign - trade enterprises at the end of the year is a more direct and strong driving force for the RMB's appreciation, as evidenced by the fact that the RMB's appreciation amplitude is greater than the US dollar index's depreciation amplitude [8]. - China has maintained a trade surplus for seven consecutive months, and there is still a large amount of pending settlement funds being digested, which supports the RMB's appreciation [8]. III. A Cold - Blooded Reflection under the Market's Optimistic Expectations: Appreciation Space and Potential Risks - **Appreciation Space** - Huang Qifan's view that the RMB will appreciate to 6.0 in the next ten years is based on rational deductions of China's economic fundamentals, trade - structure optimization, and RMB internationalization [9]. - The RMB's actual effective exchange rate shows significant appreciation potential, as the gap between the nominal and real effective exchange rates indicates that the RMB's real purchasing power is undervalued [10]. - The narrowing Sino - US interest rate spread, the central bank's monetary - policy stance, and the increasing attractiveness of the A - share market are all factors that support the RMB's appreciation [11][12]. - **Potential Risks** - Geopolitical black - swan events, the domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations, and central bank foreign - exchange policy adjustments are potential risks for the RMB's appreciation [13].

the the state of the AND STORE THE and and the company e No t 2017-01-11 the state of the ME Spec 人民币升值对资本市场的积极影响并非单一维度，而是通过估值提振、资金流入、信心修复形成三重赋能，覆盖A股、债市、港股等多个领域，且具备明确 的数据支撑与逻辑传导路径。 第一重赋能是估值修复效应。国际投行高盛的复盘研究显示，汇率上涨0.1个百分点，股票估值可提升3%—5%。这一逻辑在人民币升值周期中同样适用：随 着人民币兑美元走强，以人民币计价的资产相对美元资产的估值吸引力同步提升，尤其是外资偏好的消费白马、成长股等板块，有望迎来估值重塑。中金公 司在研报中指出，人民币突破7.0关键关口的客观变化，可能引发短期市场叙事共振，从交易层面提振预期，类似7—9月的资金入市叙事，对受情绪影响较 大的成长板块形成利好。 2025年12月25日，人民币汇率迎来标志性突破：截至当日10:40左右，离岸人民币兑美元升破7.0大关，最高触及6.9985，为2024年以来首次；在岸人民币同 步升破7.01关口，创下2024年9月27日以来新 ...

来源：郑经 简单说,美元最近像是个过气的明星,有点黯淡。 今年美联储降了三次息,美元指数跌破了90,年内 跌了超过8%。大家对他的热情,肉眼可见地降 温。 1. 经济基本盘在好转:咱们前三季度GDP增速稳在 5%以上,出口连续正增长,尤其像新能源汽车、 锂电池这些"新东西"出口很猛。这是支撑汇率的 底气。 2. 年底"结汇潮"汹涌:每年四季度,外贸企业都 要把赚的美元换成人民币(结汇)。今年大家预期 人民币升值,更急着换,形成"越涨越换,越换越 涨"的循环。市场里等着换回人民币的美元,是个 不小的数字。 3. 中美经济周期"错位"了:用个简单比喻,美国 经济在"踩刹车",而我们在艰难"爬坡过 坎"后,开始"轻踩油门"了。一边在挤泡沫,另 一边在攒后劲。货币强弱,说到底就是国力强弱的 镜子。 为啥会这样? 几个原因: 1. 美国经济有点"虚":最直观的是就业,失业率 升到了4.6%,新增就业人数断崖式下跌。这说明企 业收缩,消费乏力,经济在减速。 2. 政治开始"指挥"央行:特朗普放话要找个听话 的美联储主席。一旦央行失去独立性,印钞就变成 了政治工具,大家对美元的信任自然会打折扣。一 个信用基石松动了的货币, ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has recently surpassed the 7.0 mark against the USD, indicating a significant shift in the financial market that affects various sectors and individual consumers [1][3] - The appreciation of the RMB is driven by three main forces: a weakening USD, increased demand for RMB from domestic companies converting foreign earnings, and inflows from international investors seeking undervalued assets in China's stock and bond markets [1][2] Group 2 - Industries benefiting from the RMB appreciation include those that import goods, such as airlines, which will see reduced costs for their USD-denominated debts, leading to increased profits [4] - Other sectors like paper, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals will also benefit from lower import costs due to the stronger RMB, enhancing their profit margins [4] - Core Chinese assets are being revalued positively as foreign investors are attracted to stable blue-chip stocks and leading companies in the financial and consumer sectors [4] Group 3 - Conversely, export-oriented industries, such as home appliances, clothing, and machinery manufacturers, face challenges as their products become more expensive in USD terms, potentially leading to reduced orders and profit compression [5] - The stock market is reacting to these concerns, with companies heavily reliant on exports already showing signs of pressure in their stock prices [5] Group 4 - The RMB's appreciation has implications for consumers, such as lower costs for overseas education, travel, and online shopping, making it a favorable time for currency exchange [6][8] - Investors are advised to reassess their portfolios, focusing on sectors that benefit from the RMB's strength while avoiding those that are negatively impacted by the currency's appreciation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the formation of MACD golden cross signals, indicating a positive trend in certain stocks, suggesting potential investment opportunities in those equities [1]. Group 1 - The MACD golden cross signal is a technical indicator that suggests a bullish trend in the stock market [1]. - The article highlights that stocks showing this signal have experienced notable upward momentum [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Sun Paper Industry (002078.SZ), indicates that the appreciation of the RMB is beneficial for reducing the procurement costs of imported raw materials and equipment necessary for production and project implementation, although it may negatively impact product exports due to the small proportion of exports [1] Group 1 - The company requires imported wood pulp and wood chips as production raw materials [1] - The company needs to purchase imported equipment related to its projects [1] - The appreciation of the RMB helps lower procurement costs for these imported materials and equipment [1] Group 2 - The appreciation of the RMB may have a negative impact on the company's product exports [1] - The current proportion of product exports is relatively small [1]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the USD for the first time in 2024, reaching a high of 6.9985, while the onshore RMB has also crossed the 7.01 threshold, marking a new high since September 27, 2024 [1] Group 1: Reasons for RMB Appreciation - The current appreciation of the RMB is largely seen as passive, driven by a weaker overall USD, with the USD index experiencing a notable decline of nearly 10% [1] - The strong performance of the domestic equity market has attracted foreign capital inflows, contributing to the stability and resilience of the RMB against the USD [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - In the short term, the RMB is expected to maintain a strong position against the USD, with a potential for moderate appreciation projected through 2026 [1] - The appreciation of the RMB is anticipated to have a positive impact on the capital markets, potentially boosting stock market performance and leading to a corresponding increase in RMB-denominated assets [1]

Group 1: Currency Appreciation Factors - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD is attributed to a 1.2% increase from November 24 to December 23, approaching the "7" mark[1] - The depreciation of the USD, with a 2.3% drop in the USD index, has led to a passive appreciation of the RMB[7] - Strong export performance, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.4% until November, supports the RMB's appreciation[8] Group 2: Future Outlook and Impacts - The trend of RMB appreciation is expected to continue, driven by narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US[13] - China's significant trade surplus, exceeding $1 trillion in the first 11 months, necessitates RMB appreciation[8] - The appreciation of the RMB enhances the attractiveness of Chinese assets, potentially increasing foreign capital inflow[17] - Export-oriented companies may face challenges due to reduced competitiveness, while import-oriented firms could benefit from lower costs[17] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential underperformance of the Chinese economy and unexpected tightening of US monetary policy[18] - Diplomatic pressures may arise from the expanding trade surplus, necessitating a balanced approach to currency appreciation[16]

人民币继续走强！ 今日（12月25日），离岸人民币兑美元升破7.0大关，最高触及6.99709，续创2024年9月30日以来新高；在岸人民币兑美元升破7.01关 口，一度升至7.0058，突破了2024年9月27日的前高(7.0106)，创2023年5月22日以来新高。 东吴证券指出，2025年可能标志着人民币贬值周期的终结，新一轮升值周期已然开启，预计2026年底人民币兑美元汇率可能触及6.70- 6.80区间。 德意志银行、瑞银等外资机构也预测，2026年人民币汇率有望稳步升至6.7左右，长期甚至可能向6.40-6.50区间迈进 ；摩根士丹利则预测 2026年底人民币兑美元汇率约为7.05，区间内偏弱运行，但整体仍维持升值预期。 利好哪些产业？ 分析指出，人民币稳步升值有望吸引全球资本逐步增配中国资产（A/H股）。 南华期货研报指出，2025年下半年，人民币兑美元汇率展现出显著的强势特征，其升值步伐在第四季度尤为加快，呈现出与美元指数阶 段性走强相背离的内生性上涨态势。 整体来看，此轮升值可以归结为三大核心支柱：在"弱美元"大环境下的被动升值、由人民币资产吸引力提升引发的主动升值，以及政策 预期稳定与季节 ...