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大越期货沥青期货早报-20250729
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 02:26
沥青期货早报 2025年7月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 1 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 供给端来看,根据隆众,2025年7月份国内沥青总计划排产量为253.9万吨,环比增幅5.9%, 同比增幅23.4%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为30.9204%,环比减少3.36个百分 点,全国样本企业出货26.9万吨,环比增加8.03%,样本企业产量为51.6万吨,环比减少 9.79%,样本企业装置检修量预估为64.2万吨,环比增加11.85%,本周炼厂有所减产,降低 供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看,重交沥青开工率为28.8%,环比减少0.12个百分点,低于历史平均水平;建筑 沥青开工率为18.2%,环比持平,低于历史平均水平;改性沥青开 ...
大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250729
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: After a significant increase, the domestic commodity atmosphere turned cold on the night of last Friday, and PTA futures followed the correction. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was relatively light, and the spot basis was weak. In August, some PTA plants are planned for maintenance, and the supply - demand outlook is expected to improve. It is predicted that the PTA price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the basis will fluctuate within a certain range [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated weakly, and the basis strengthened. The supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to turn to a tight balance in July - August. With the tightening of the supply side and a good macro - atmosphere, the price of ethylene glycol is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content found 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA**: The fundamentals showed a post - increase correction on the night of last Friday. The spot basis was weak, the factory inventory increased slightly, the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the main position was net long but decreasing. In August, some plants are planned for maintenance, and the supply - demand outlook is expected to improve. The price is expected to follow the cost side and the basis will fluctuate [5]. - **MEG**: The price fluctuated weakly on Monday, and the basis strengthened. The supply side has some unexpected situations, and the supply - demand is expected to turn to a tight balance in July - August. The price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors**: The supply side of ethylene glycol has many unexpected situations, such as device outages in Saudi Arabia, load reduction of a large - scale producer in Zhejiang, and planned maintenance of a cracking device in Lianyungang. On the demand side, the terminal demand is weakening due to the end of the rush - export period and the domestic off - season [7]. - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - side. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upward resistance of the market rebound needs to be monitored [8]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand situation and inventory changes over time [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand relationship and inventory trends [10]. - **Price Data**: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester products, and their corresponding futures and basis on July 25 and July 28, 2025, as well as the processing fees and profits of PTA and MEG [11]. - **Other Data**: There are also data on bottle - chip spot prices, production gross margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, and various price spreads (such as PTA basis, MEG inter - month spreads, spot spreads) from 2020 to 2025, which help to comprehensively understand the market situation [13][16][18]
尿素早评20250728:焦煤回落尿素或有补跌-20250728
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 03:33
| | | | | 尿素早评20250728: 焦煤回落, 尿素或有补跌 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 变化值 | 单位 | 7月25日 | 7月24日 | | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1807.00 1790.00 1690.00 | 1796.00 1810.00 1670.00 | 11.00 -20.00 20.00 | 0.61% -1.10% 1.20% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1822.00 | 1804.00 | 18.00 | 1.00% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1803.00 | 1785.00 | 18.00 | 1.01% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1810.00 | 1830.00 | -20.00 | -1.09% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 178 ...
豆粕回落带动,菜粕冲高回落
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 03:09
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕回落带动,菜粕冲高回落 (菜粕周报7.21-7.25) 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 1.基本面:菜粕震荡回落,豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理,菜粕油厂开机处于低位,菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季,进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力,盘面短期维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕,但未对油菜籽进口加征关税,利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差:现货2600,基差-75,贴水期货。偏空 3.库存:菜粕库存1.51万吨,上周0.46万吨,周环比增加228%,去年同期3.6万吨,同比减 少58.06%。偏多 4.盘面:价 ...
鸡蛋:现货驱动减弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 02:27
商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 28 日 鸡蛋:现货驱动减弱 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 (%) | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2508 | 3,522 | -1.57 | -31 | -4,416 | | | 鸡蛋2510 | 3,411 | 0.41 | -3,693 | 204 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋8-9价差 | | -106 | | -74 | | | 鸡蛋8-10价差 | | 111 | | 163 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.20 | | 3.20 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 3.18 | | 3.18 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.20 | | 3.20 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.73 | | 3.73 | | | | | 最新日 | | ...
豆粕周报:主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力-20250728
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 01:47
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 按照 CPC 月度展望来看,7 月降雨天气展望顺利,美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面丰产定局。国内方面,国内港口及油厂大豆,豆粕进入累库阶段,油厂催提。饲 | | | | 料企业库存开始走高于去年同期,进一步补库积极性预计有所减缓。美国总统特朗 | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 普宣布与印度尼西亚达成农业贸易协议,该国承诺将采购 45 亿美元的美国农产品。 | | | | 印尼是美国大豆的第五大进口国,该消息提振美豆价格上涨。周五国内豆粕价格收 | | | | 跌,市场静待中美贸易谈判新进展。在基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑多空双 | | | | 重作用下,豆粕以大区间行情对待。关注本周中美贸易谈判结果。主力【2970,3040】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复,但加籽地区土壤墒情偏干,关注后续降雨情况。国内市场, | | | | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库,商业库存去库,但同比依然维持较高水平。 | | | | 7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降,叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税,以及旧作 ...
大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250728
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 01:44
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年7月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA: 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建 议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 6、预期:上周乙二醇主港到货表现集中,预计本周初显性库存可适度回升,关注周内天气变化以及船只卸货进度。基本面来看, 7-8月乙二醇供需转向紧平衡,较此前市场预期明显好转。供应端收紧以及宏观气氛良好共振下,短期乙二醇价格重心偏强运行为 主,关注海外装置恢复进度。 2、基差:现货4579,09合约基差34,盘面贴水 中性 3、库存:华东地区合计库存46.88万吨,环比减少2.52万吨 偏多 4、盘面:20日均线向上,收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 1、基本面:周五,供应商出货为主,7月货在09-5~10附近商谈成交,个别略高 ...
工业硅、碳酸锂期货品种周报-20250728
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 01:19
Aggregate Information - Report Title: Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: July 28 - August 1, 2025 [1] Group 1: Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Industrial silicon futures are currently in a process of stabilizing and rebounding [6] - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of industrial silicon increased. As of July 25, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9,650 yuan/ton, 10,300 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily price of industrial silicon is in a strong upward stage, and the main force shows a strong bullish sentiment [6] - Strategy Suggestion: The support level of the industrial silicon 2509 futures price is in the range of 8,300 - 8,600. It is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The price of industrial silicon was bottoming and oscillating. It was advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [10] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: During the process of the industrial silicon price stabilizing and rebounding, it is advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [11] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [13] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [17] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Lithium carbonate futures are currently in a process of stabilizing and rebounding [30] - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate increased. As of July 25, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,800 yuan/ton. Technically, the AI variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong upward stage, and the main force shows a strong bullish sentiment [31] - Strategy Suggestion: The support level of the lithium carbonate 2509 futures price is in the range of 69,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: During the process of the lithium carbonate price stabilizing and rebounding, it was advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [34] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: During the process of the lithium carbonate price stabilizing and rebounding, it is advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [35] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [38] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41]
瑞达期货纯碱玻璃市场周报-20250725
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 12:17
瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.07.25 」 纯碱玻璃市场周报 「 周度要点小结」 3 研究员:黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添 加 客 服 业 务 咨 询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 u 行情回顾:本周纯碱期货上涨18.42%,玻璃期货上涨25.99%,本周纯碱期货出现了大幅拉升的表现, 主要原因来自于市场对于反内卷会议的炒作,,本周基本上属于情绪化交易为主,基本面表现依旧乏力, 在产量小幅下滑,库存高位的背景下,下周行情有望回落,玻璃方面本周和纯碱期货走势大致相同,在 反内卷会议指导下,玻璃整体利润开始回升,虽然玻璃库存处于高位,落后产能后续将逐步淘汰,产能 筑底,库存筑顶,整体来看有望率先实现基本面反转,但本周涨幅主要在反馈淘汰落后产能,甚至过多 反馈。 u 行情展望:纯碱方面,供应端来看国内纯碱开工率上涨,纯碱产量上行,市场供应依旧宽松,国内纯碱 利润回升,氨碱法和联碱法利润继续回升,后续纯碱迎来检修窗口,预计产量下滑,伴随着反内卷会议 指导,天然碱法将会逐步替代落后产能,需求端玻璃产 ...
玉米类市场周报:拍卖影响预期下滑,期货盘面窄幅震荡-20250725
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 11:36
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.25」 玉米类市场周报 拍卖影响预期下滑 期货盘面窄幅震荡 研究员:许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话:0595-86778969 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议:短线交易为主。 3 Ø 玉米: Ø 行情回顾:本周玉米期货窄幅震荡。主力2509合约收盘价为2311元/吨,较前一周+8元/吨。 Ø 行情展望:美国农业部(USDA)在每周作物生长报告中公布称,截至25年7月20日当周,美国玉米 优良率为74%,符合市场预期,前一周为74%,上年同期为67%。生长初期优良率保持良好,产出前 景较高,国际玉米价格持续承压。国内方面,贸易商经过一轮出粮后库存趋紧,贸易商挺价心态 仍偏重,本周进口粮拍卖成交率略有回升,但实际成交量有限,出库速度不如预期,未能形成大 规模的有效供给。不过,深加工利润承压企业开机率偏低,且饲企库存相对安全,价格续涨动力 相对不足,总体维持窄幅调整。盘面来看,上周低位 ...