Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both沪胶 (RU) and合成胶 (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term weakness, medium - term oscillation, and intraday strength [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs For沪胶 (RU) - **Short - term view**: Weak [1] - **Medium - term view**: Oscillation [1] - **Intraday view**: Strong [1] - **Reference view**: Run strongly [1] - **Core logic**: The US Senate's key step to end the federal government "shutdown" re - stimulates investors' risk preference, and market optimism recovers. With the strengthening of macro factors and optimistic domestic automobile production and sales data in the rubber market downstream,沪胶 futures maintained an oscillating and stable trend in the overnight session on Monday and are expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Tuesday [5]. For合成胶 (BR) - **Short - term view**: Weak [1] - **Medium - term view**: Oscillation [1] - **Intraday view**: Strong [1] - **Reference view**: Run strongly [1] - **Core logic**: The US Congress Senate's agreement to end the federal government "shutdown" boosts investors' risk preference. With the strengthening of macro factors and optimistic domestic automobile production and sales data in the rubber market downstream, the market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated".合成胶 futures showed an oscillating and stable trend in the overnight session on Monday and are expected to maintain a strong trend on Tuesday [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, but with limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★☆ [1] - Glass: ★★☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The olefins and polyolefins market shows mixed trends, with propylene having price support and plastics and polypropylene facing supply - demand imbalances but potential for technical rebounds [2] - The pure benzene - styrene market has different outlooks, with caution on pure benzene rebounds and a relatively stable situation for styrene [3] - The polyester market is affected by multiple factors, with PTA, ethylene glycol, short fiber, and bottle chip having their own supply - demand and price trends [5] - The coal - chemical market has a weak methanol market and a potentially volatile urea market [6] - The chlor - alkali market shows PVC in a narrow - range oscillation and caustic soda in a weak state [7] - The soda ash - glass market has an oversupply situation in the long - term for soda ash and a weak reality for glass [8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures' main contracts oscillated and tested the 5 - day moving average. Propylene prices are supported by low enterprise inventories and good downstream demand [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts had a narrow - range consolidation. Supply pressure persists, and demand is expected to decline seasonally, but prices may rebound technically [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Overseas gasoline trends are strong, but the rebound of domestic pure benzene is limited. A strategy of shorting on rallies and reverse spreads on monthly differentials is recommended [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts rose slightly. Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory reduction [3] Polyester - PX supports PTA prices, but PTA load is decreasing due to device maintenance. Caution is needed when being bullish on PX, and PTA processing margins fluctuate with PX [5] - Ethylene glycol production increased slightly, and port inventories rose. A bearish view is maintained, and reverse spreads on monthly differentials are recommended [5] - Short fiber has no new investment pressure, but demand is expected to weaken. Bottle chip demand fades with the cooling weather [5] Coal - Chemical - Methanol futures declined significantly. Overseas device start - up increased, and port inventories remained high. Demand is likely to be weak, and the market will continue to be weak [6] - Urea futures were strong, but there is a possibility of a downward trend as the market sentiment returns to rationality. Attention should be paid to Indian urea tenders [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC oscillated. The cancellation of India's BIS certification has little impact. Supply is high and demand is weak, so PVC may oscillate in a narrow range [7] - Caustic soda declined. Supply is high, and downstream demand is insufficient. Its weak operation should be monitored for profit changes [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillated. Costs increased, and production decreased due to some plant maintenance. It is in an oversupply situation in the long - term [8] - Glass oscillated. Intermediate inventories are high, and the market is weak. It is recommended to wait and see for now [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the approaching of the new crop in the Northern Hemisphere and the listing of domestic cane sugar, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be mainly oscillating weakly [4]. - On the import supply side, the current import volume of raw sugar is relatively large, the pressure of imported sugar arriving at ports is gradually being released, and the import cost is between 5300 - 5400, which suppresses the futures market [4]. - On the domestic supply side, Yunnan sugar mills started the first pressing two days ago, and Guangxi sugar mills are expected to start concentrated pressing in mid - to late November, which may create new selling pressure [4]. - However, the current futures market is close to the domestic sugar - making cost, and the futures market is expected to show a resistant decline before the listing of domestic new sugar [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Data - In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the price is 0, with a change of 0, and the basis to 2601 is - 5470, with a change of 42 [4]. - In Rizhao, Shandong, the price is 5860, with a change of 0, the premium is 100, and the basis to 2601 is 290, with a change of 42 [4]. - SR01 is at 5470, down 42; SR05 is at 5404, down 29; SR01 - 05 is 66, down 13 [4]. - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.114, down 0.0176 [4]. International Data - The exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - The ice raw sugar main contract is at 14.85, up 0.42; the London white sugar main contract is at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil main contract is at 64.29, up 1.18 [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market Outlook**: The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, red dates, and live pigs, providing different views and investment suggestions for each variety [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The market sentiment is bullish, but due to the lack of obvious bullish drivers, caution is needed when chasing long positions. There is a risk of short - term adjustment following the decline of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to the soybean planting situation in Brazil [1][2][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The market sentiment is bullish, but the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited due to the consumption off - season and relatively high port inventories. Attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1][4][6]. - **Palm Oil**: It is in a weak consolidation state. There is a continued inventory build - up expectation, and short - term staged adjustment is expected. Caution is needed when chasing long positions, and participation is recommended when the price stabilizes at a low level [1][7][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is expected to fluctuate bullishly in the short term. Although there is no strong bullish driver, it is treated as a rebound for now. Attention should be paid to the weather in Brazil [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is expected to be bullish in the short term. The zero - start of coastal oil mills, zero - inventory of rapeseed, and significant reduction in port inventories have driven up the domestic rapeseed oil price [1]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to adjust in the short term. The high supply suppresses the market in the short term, but the terminal inventory is being depleted, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to gradually converge in the long - term. Mid - to long - term investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips, and short - term investors can consider range trading or short - term reverse arbitrage [1][9][12]. - **Red Dates**: A bearish attitude is recommended in the long - term under the loose supply - demand pattern. Most of the premium caused by the speculation of a significant reduction in production has been squeezed out, and short - term observation is recommended [1][13][16]. - **Live Pigs**: There is a risk of a rebound. Supply pressure remains in Q4, and attention should be paid to the entry of second - fattening pigs. The terminal demand is gradually stabilizing. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts, and attention can be paid to the 03 contract and reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][17][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 3092 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan or 0.68% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3124 yuan/ton, up 17.43 yuan or 0.56% [2]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of November 7, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 1033.4 million tons, up 70.50 million tons from last week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 761.95 million tons, up 51.16 million tons or 7.20% from last week, and the soybean meal inventory is 99.86 million tons, down 15.44 million tons or 13.39% from last week [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The rainfall in Brazil is expected to be slightly lower than normal in the next 15 days. The sales pressure of spot oil mills has decreased, and there is a psychological tendency to support prices. The issue of US soybean import tariffs has not been effectively resolved, and the market sentiment is bullish, but there is a risk of short - term adjustment following the decline of US soybeans [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 2490 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.08% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2588.95 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of November 7, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 0.5 million tons, down 0.21 million tons from last week [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The market's expectation of improving China - Canada trade tariffs has cooled. Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory and zero - crushing. However, due to the consumption off - season and relatively high port inventories, the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 8644 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan or 1.23% from the previous day. The national average price is 8655 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.80% [7]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of November 7, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory is 59.73 million tons, up 0.45 million tons or 0.76% from last week, and up 5.85 million tons or 10.86% from last year [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand. There was inventory build - up in October, and the export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of November was weak. There is still an expectation of inventory build - up, and it is in a short - term staged adjustment [1][8]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The latest price of the main contract (CF2601) is 13450 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day [9]. - **Inventory Situation**: The national commercial inventory has increased by 52.17 million tons to 284.78 million tons, lower than the same period by 27.88 million tons; the Xinjiang commercial inventory has increased to 183.9 million tons, higher than the same period by 26.96 million tons [11]. - **Market Analysis**: In the US, new cotton is being harvested; in India, the daily listing volume of new cotton is about 1.4 million tons; in Pakistan, the new cotton listing volume has increased by 3% year - on - year. In China, the new cotton picking is basically completed, and the supply is high in the short term, but the terminal inventory is being depleted, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to converge in the long - term [1][10][12]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: The latest price of the main contract (CJ2601) is 9190 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.05% from the previous day [13]. - **Inventory Situation**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9840 tons, up 299 tons from last week and up 4140 tons from the same period [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The new - season red date production is expected to be between 500,000 and 600,000 tons, and the supply is loose. The mainstream purchase price in Xinjiang is weak, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly [1][15][16]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The latest price of the main contract (lh2601) is 11775 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan or 0.72% from the previous day. The national average spot price of external ternary pigs is 11940 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 0.33% [17]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand Situation**: The national sample enterprise's pig inventory has increased slightly, and the slaughter volume has increased by 11.85% month - on - month. The terminal demand is gradually stabilizing, but the supply pressure remains in Q4 [17][19]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply pressure is postponed to December, and there is a risk of a rebound. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts, and attention can be paid to the 03 contract and reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][17][19].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Report Core View - The reduction in LME copper inventory supports copper prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main - contract was 86,900 with a daily decline of 0.74%, and the night - session closing price was 86,680 with a decline of 0.25%. The LME 3M copper electronic - trading price was 10,846 with a decline of 0.12%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 238,872 (a decrease of 297 from the previous day), and the open interest was 553,083 (a decrease of 8,572). The trading volume of the LME 3M copper electronic - trading was 40,992 (an increase of 21,594), and the open interest was 326,000 (an increase of 5,006). The Shanghai Copper inventory was 49,830 (an increase of 5,873), and the LME copper inventory was 135,725 (a decrease of 450) [1]. - **Spot Data**: The LME copper premium, Shanghai 1 bright copper price, and bonded - area bill of lading premium remained unchanged. The spot - to - near - month futures spread increased by 5, the near - month to consecutive - first - month contract spread decreased by 50, and the cross - period arbitrage cost of buying the near - month and selling the consecutive - first - month contract was 202. The Shanghai copper spot - to - LME cash spread decreased by 135, the Shanghai Copper consecutive - third - month contract to LME 3M spread decreased by 15, the Shanghai copper spot - to - Shanghai 1 recycled copper spread decreased by 235, and the recycled copper import profit and loss increased by 446 [1]. **Macro and Industry News** - **Macro News**: Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to deploy policies and measures to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption. The hawkish faction of the Federal Reserve is prominent and opposes a December interest - rate cut, while Milan calls for a rate cut again [1]. - **Industry News**: The United States officially announced a new list of critical minerals, including copper for the first time. Tanzania has reopened its border with Zambia, resuming the flow of goods on this important trade corridor between the two major African copper - exporting countries. Freeport Indonesia completed the investigation of the mudslide incident at its Grasberg copper - gold mine. Peru's copper production in September increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 240,995 tons, and the production in the first nine months of 2025 was about 2.048 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. Marimaca Copper's copper oxide mine project in Chile's Antofagasta Region obtained environmental approval [1][3]. **Trend Intensity** - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to expect a weak and volatile trend [3] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the glass futures showed a weak performance, and the main contract's open interest reached a new high. With insufficient expectations for macro - policies, the market was more in line with the fundamentals, showing a downward trend. The end - of - year demand is likely to weaken further, and there is delivery pressure in the near - term contracts. Technically, the moving averages are in a weak arrangement, and the short - side power is dominant and strengthening [3] Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is to expect a weak and volatile trend. The main logic is that the glass futures were weak last week, the supply side remained stable with no changes in production lines and constant daily melting volume, and the demand side weakened with manufacturers' production - sales ratio declining. The downstream was pessimistic, and processing factory orders deteriorated. For soda ash, although the cost increased due to rising coal prices, it was still considered from a short - selling perspective. The outlook is that the end - of - year demand may weaken, and there is delivery pressure in the near - term contracts. It is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options on the glass 01 contract until expiration and continue to hold short positions on the 01 futures contract, with attention on the range of 990 - 1000 [3] 02 - 03 Market Review - **Spot and Futures Prices**: As of November 14, the 5mm float glass market price was 1110 yuan/ton (-20) in North China, 1140 yuan/ton (0) in Central China, and 1230 yuan/ton (-10) in East China. The glass 01 contract closed at 1032 yuan/ton last Friday, down 59 yuan for the week. The soda ash - glass price difference was 194 yuan/ton (+75), the glass 01 contract basis was 68 yuan/ton (+19), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 128 yuan/ton (+6) [10][11][13] 04 Profit - **Production Process Profits**: For the natural gas production process, the cost was 1574 yuan/ton (0), and the gross profit was - 344 yuan/ton (-10); for the coal - gas production process, the cost was 1210 yuan/ton (-2), and the gross profit was - 100 yuan/ton (-18); for the petroleum coke production process, the cost was 1092 yuan/ton (0), and the gross profit was 48 yuan/ton (0) [16] 05 Supply - The daily melting volume of glass was 157,505 tons per day (unchanged), and there were currently 222 production lines in operation. There have been multiple production line changes including cold - repairs, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions [18][20] 06 Inventory - As of November 14, the total inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,324.7 million weight boxes. The inventory in North China was 1112.2 million weight boxes (+30.7), in Central China was 710 million weight boxes (+8.3), in East China was 1333.3 million weight boxes (-11.4), in South China was 932.8 million weight boxes (-15.8), in Southwest China was 1301.5 million weight boxes (+7.6), the inventory in Shahe factories was 390 million weight boxes (-26), and in Hubei factories was 507 million weight boxes (-4) [22] 07 Deep - processing - On November 13, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 88% (-26%). On November 14, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 46.5% (+1.7%). At the beginning of November, the available order days for glass deep - processing were 10.8 days (+0.4) [26] 08 - 09 Demand - **Automobile Industry**: In October, China's automobile production was 3.359 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 83,000 and a year - on - year increase of 363,000; sales were 3.322 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 96,000 and a year - on - year increase of 269,000. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 1.282 million, with a penetration rate of 57.2% [37] - **Real Estate Industry**: In September, China's real estate completion area was 34.3534 million square meters (0% year - on - year), new construction area was 55.9831 million square meters (-15% year - on - year), construction area was 54.7081 million square meters (-16% year - on - year), and commercial housing sales area was 85.3087 million square meters (-12% year - on - year). From November 15 to November 14, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.61 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20% and a year - on - year decrease of 31%. In October, real estate development investment was 585.729 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23% [44] 10 - 13 Cost - side Soda Ash - **Spot and Futures Prices**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were 1325 yuan/ton (0) in North China, 1250 yuan/ton (0) in East China, 1300 yuan/ton (0) in Central China, and 1450 yuan/ton (0) in South China. The soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1226 yuan/ton (+16) last Friday, and the basis of soda ash Huazhong 09 was 74 yuan/ton (-16) [47][51] - **Profit and Cost**: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1392 yuan/ton (+33), with a gross profit of - 24 yuan/ton (+20); the cost of the co - production process was 1871 yuan/ton (+80), with a gross profit of - 182 yuan/ton (-8). The market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2423 yuan/ton (+173), and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride from Xuzhou Fengcheng was 300 yuan/ton (0) [53][54][55] - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 170.73 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.69 million tons), including 90.71 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 0.75 million tons) and 80.02 million tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 1.44 million tons). The exchange soda ash warehouse receipts were 5454 (a month - on - month decrease of 2860) [62][67] - **Apparent Consumption and Production - sales Ratio**: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 40.34 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 million tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 34.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.97 million tons. The production - sales ratio of soda ash was 100.93%, a week - on - week increase of 2.57% [71][77]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - For rebar, with weak demand, rising inventory at a low level, and a downward - trending real estate industry, it should be treated with a volatile and bearish mindset [2]. - For hot - rolled coils, considering factors such as inventory increase, export obstacles, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a volatile and bearish approach is also recommended [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand shows no improvement, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness is still weak. The real estate industry remains in a downward cycle, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The rebar spot price is 3190, and the basis is 137, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 4.1575 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is bearish [2]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the main rebar contract is short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Likely factors**: Bullish factors include low production, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; bearish factors are the continued downward cycle of the downstream real estate industry and weak terminal demand [4]. Hot - rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect, which is neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The hot - rolled coil spot price is 3260, and the basis is 4, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 3.33 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is bearish [7]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is neutral [7]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the main hot - rolled coil contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Likely factors**: Bullish factors include decent demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; bearish factors are that downstream demand has entered a seasonal off - season and the outlook is pessimistic [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, PVC bottomed out and rebounded, with a three - consecutive - week decline in the weekly line, and the main contract hit a new low for the year. The fundamentals are weakly difficult to change, and attention should be paid to capital dynamics. The cost support is expected to strengthen, and there may be phased low - buying opportunities due to short - covering [3][4]. - For PVC, short - term absolute prices are undervalued. One can participate in the rebound with a light position according to capital dynamics, and industrial customers can sell hedging on rallies. For烧碱 (caustic soda), the supply is expected to increase in November - December, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [4][5]. 3. Summaries by Directory PVC行情回顾 (PVC Market Review) - This week, PVC bottomed out and rebounded, with a three - consecutive - week decline in the weekly line. It opened flat at 4613 at the beginning of the week, then rose and fell back, hitting a weekly low of 4560 on Thursday night and rebounding. It closed at 4608, down 3 points or 0.6% from last week, with an amplitude of 75 points [3][9]. - The monthly spread weakened slightly, the basis remained stable, the warehouse receipt hit a new high, the position volume remained at a high level in the same period, the profit of a single variety's loss widened, and the profit of the northwest chlor - alkali integration was compressed [10][12][14][16][18]. 基本面分析 (Fundamental Analysis) Supply - This week, PVC output was 480,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons), and the capacity utilization rate was 78.5%. Next week, the planned volume of device maintenance is small, and the output is expected to pick up [26]. Demand - Currently, the downstream operating rate is around 50%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline in apparent consumption was 1.7%, and in September, the apparent consumption was 1.7 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.4%) [29]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year declines in the new construction/construction/completion/sales areas of real estate were - 18.9%/ - 9.4%/ - 15.3%/ - 5.5%. The declines in new construction and completion areas narrowed, while those in construction and sales areas continued to expand [32]. Export - From January to September 2025, the PVC export volume was 2.92 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 980,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 51%). In September, the export volume was 350,000 tons (including 160,000 tons to India) [35]. Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the PVC enterprise inventory was 320,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 25,000 tons), and the upstream enterprise pre - sales volume was 70 (a week - on - week decrease of 4) [38]. - As of Thursday this week, the small - sample social inventory of PVC was 530,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 tons), and the large - sample social inventory was 950,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 tons) [41]. 烧碱行情回顾 (Caustic Soda Market Review) - In terms of supply, the caustic soda production is expected to increase in November - December. Regarding demand, relevant data sources are provided, but specific demand analysis is not detailed in the given content. Also, information on caustic soda inventory and export volume is provided, but no in - depth analysis is given [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term and intraday, with a mid - term view of oscillation [1][5][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Mid - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term is weak, mid - term is oscillating, intraday is strong, with a reference view of strong operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: The US Senate's key step to end the federal government "shutdown" has re - stimulated investors' risk appetite, and market optimism has recovered. After the enhancement of macro factors, combined with the optimistic domestic automobile production and sales data in the rubber market. Last Friday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillating and stable trend, with the futures price slightly lower. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Monday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Mid - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term is weak, mid - term is oscillating, intraday is strong, with a reference view of strong operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The US Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", which has boosted investors' risk appetite. After the enhancement of macro factors, combined with the optimistic domestic automobile production and sales data in the rubber market. The market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment has become more cautious. Last Friday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and stable trend, with the futures price slightly lower. It is expected that the synthetic rubber futures may maintain a strong trend on Monday [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "oscillation" [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, global stock markets rose initially and then fell, with significant fluctuations. Overseas, the potential end of the US government shutdown and unannounced economic data have created uncertainty. Domestically, the A - share market saw a recovery in pharmaceutical and consumer stocks and an adjustment in technology stocks, but current fundamental pressures are increasing. The market is expected to experience intensified high - level oscillations and a higher probability of a downward trend. Attention should be paid to Sino - Japanese relations, the possibility of real - estate tax implementation, and the impact on export - chain enterprises due to Tesla's requirements [2][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week View and Macro Key Event Overview 3.1.1 Next - Week View - The market's high - level oscillations will intensify, and the probability of a downward trend is increasing. Three factors need attention: Sino - Japanese relations, the possibility of real - estate tax implementation, and the impact on export - chain enterprises from Tesla's requirements [2][10] 3.1.2 This Week's Key Event Focus - On November 10th, central enterprises completed over 3 trillion yuan in fixed - asset investment in the first three quarters, with about 40% in emerging industries. The State Council issued 13 measures to promote private investment [11][12] - On November 11th, 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds were fully disbursed. The central bank released the Q3 monetary policy report, emphasizing a moderately loose monetary policy [13][15] - On November 12th, overseas investors' holdings of A - shares exceeded 3.5 trillion yuan [16] - On November 13th, in October, M2 increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year [17] - On November 14th, China's economic indicators in October declined. The State Council meeting studied the in - depth implementation of "two major" construction work [18][20] 3.2 One - Week Market Quotes Overview 3.2.1 Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From November 10th to 14th, global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 0.41%, with frontier markets (+1.20%) > developed markets (+0.43%) > emerging markets (+0.29%). The South African stock market led the world with a 5.2% increase, while the Taiwan, China stock market had the worst performance, falling 1.88% [21] 3.2.2 Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - During the same period, Chinese equity assets showed mixed performance, with Hong Kong stocks > A - shares > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2044 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.4 billion yuan from last week. Among A - share broad - based indices, the micro - cap stock index had the best performance, rising 3.10%, while the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index had a decline of 3.85% [24] 3.2.3 Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - This week, global GICS primary industries showed mixed performance. The healthcare sector led with a 3.94% increase, while the consumer discretionary sector performed poorly, falling 1.19%. In the Chinese market, healthcare led with a 3.27% increase, and information technology lagged with a 4.27% decline [27] 3.2.4 Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC Primary Industries - Among A - share CITIC primary industries this week, 20 rose (17 last week) and 10 fell (13 last week). The consumer services sector led with a 4.81% increase, and the communication sector led the decline with a 4.90% decrease [28] 3.2.5 Weekly Overview of China A - Share Styles: Large - Cap Value Prevailed - This week, value stocks outperformed growth stocks, and the market - capitalization style favored large - cap stocks [33] 3.2.6 Futures Basis Overview - Information presented through relevant charts, but no specific data summarized in text [36] 3.3 Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview 3.3.1 Broad - Based Index Valuation - Provided PE and PB data for various broad - based indices this week, including their eight - year percentiles, values at the beginning of the year, and changes during the year [44] 3.3.2 Primary Industry Valuation - Provided PE and PB data for various primary industries this week, including their eight - year percentiles, values at the beginning of the year, and changes during the year [45] 3.3.3 Broad - Based Index Equity Risk Premium - The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased slightly this week [46][51] 3.3.4 Broad - Based Index Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 8.73% and up to 9.23% in 2026; the CSI 500's 2025 rate was adjusted down to 27.88% and 2026 down to 20.68%; the CSI 1000's 2025 rate was adjusted down to 28.62% and 2026 up to 25.56% [52] 3.4 Liquidity and Fund Flow Tracking 3.4.1 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year yield declined, the 1 - year yield increased, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 99.3, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.10 [60] 3.4.2 Trading - Type Fund Tracking - This week, the average daily northbound trading volume decreased by 17.8 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 12.6 billion yuan [64] 3.4.3 Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs - There were 29 on - exchange ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 29 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 300 million, the share of those tracking the CSI 500 increased by 120 million, the share of those tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 40 million, and the share of those tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 2.9 billion [67][72] 3.5 Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data 3.5.1 Supply - Side: Crude Steel Production Contracted - Information presented through relevant charts, such as the national blast - furnace operating rate and domestic crude steel daily output [74] 3.5.2 Consumption - Side: Real - Estate Transactions Remained Sluggish - Information presented through relevant charts, including the transaction area of first - hand and second - hand houses in major cities, and land transaction area [82] 3.5.3 Inflation Observation: Producer Goods Prices Stabilized, and Agricultural Product Prices Rebounded - Producer goods prices gradually stabilized, and agricultural product prices continued to recover [92]