美国经济多项关键指标同步向好，疫情暴发以来首次接近实现软着陆目标，即在不触发衰退的前提下将 通胀回落至美联储2%的政策目标。 最新公开的数据显示，1月剔除食品和能源的核心消费者价格指数同比上涨2.5%，为2021年疫情推高物 价以来的最低水平。尽管该数据受去年秋季政府停摆形成的统计缺口影响存在技术性压低，但并未重现 过去三年年初打断通胀下行趋势的季节性价格压力。同期，1月失业率回落至4.3%，雇主新增就业人数 13万人，超出市场预期。 Payden & Rygel首席经济学家杰弗里・克利夫兰表示，"大家预想中最糟糕的灾难并没有发生。人们曾 对我说，'你要让通胀回到2%，唯一途径就是失业率大幅飙升。'" 不过当前并非宣布软着陆成功的时机。美联储青睐的核心个人消费支出价格指数涨幅接近3%，高于去 年4月录得的近期低点2.6%，仍远高于2%的政策目标。相关预测显示，随着去年4月加征关税的涨价效 应从港口传导至终端消费市场，2026年通胀下行进程或将放缓。 美联储官员的关注点已从抑制通胀再度转向警惕通胀在当前水平陷入停滞。费城联储主席安娜・保尔森 表示，"你别想让我宣布软着陆取得胜利。通胀必须达到2%。所以我们的任务 ...

格隆汇2月16日｜机构分析称，新西兰联储预计将在周三维持官方现金利率2.25%不变，交易员关注经 济前景及通胀与利率的预期路径。新西兰联储过去两年已大幅降息，预计未来一年经济复苏将成为主要 特征。尽管如此，通胀前景仍存疑云——尽管尚未达到令人担忧的程度，通胀已开始抬头。新任新西兰 联储主席安娜·布雷曼预计将表明，若通胀恶化，已做好加息准备。不过，这很可能将是2026年末的事 情。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy managed to achieve growth in Q4 2025, reversing the previous quarter's significant contraction, highlighting the effectiveness of Prime Minister Suga's aggressive spending policies [1] Economic Performance - The initial annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for Q4 was reported at 0.2%, which fell short of economists' median expectation of 1.6% [1] - Private residential investment saw a quarter-on-quarter real increase of 4.8%, aligning with expectations following regulatory adjustments that led to a sharp decline in the previous quarter [1] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending, the largest component of GDP, increased by 0.1%, indicating that household demand remains fragile due to inflation, which has consistently stayed above the Bank of Japan's 2% target over the next four years [1] Economic Recovery - The data released underscores the unevenness of the economic recovery, with a lack of strong driving forces persisting despite the presence of one-off factors [1] - Signs of economic activity weakness are unlikely to deter the Bank of Japan from raising the benchmark interest rate later this year [1]

预计新西兰央行将于周三维持其官方隔夜拆款利率在2.25%不变，交易员的焦点则在于该国经济前景以 及通胀和利率的预期路径。新西兰央行在过去两年已大幅降息，预计未来一年经济将出现复苏。不过， 通胀形势仍不明朗，虽然已开始上升，但升幅并不惊人。预计新西兰央行新任行长Anna Breman将表 明，如果通胀恶化，央行准备加息。不过，加息可能要等到2026年底。 ...

2月15日，比特币价格继续剧烈波动，今日一度触及71000美元/枚的比特币再度直线跳水，截至发稿跌至69225.91美元/枚。以太坊更是跌超3%。 剧烈波动下，加密货币近24小时全球有超8万人爆仓。 | 1H爆仓 | $299.76万 | 4H爆仓 | $6427.42万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多更 | $103.05万 | 名車 | $5907.24万 | | 空单 | $196.71万 | 空单 | $520.19万 | | 12H爆仓 | $1.37亿 | 24H爆仓 | $2.14亿 | | 多車 | $9132.65万 | 名車 | $1.19亿 | | 空車 | $4563.94万 | 容更 | $9460.85万 | 消息面上，春节周来临，美联储降息又将迎来重要变数。 2月20日周五，"美联储最爱通胀指标"去年12月PCE数据及第四季度GDP初值将公布。 彭博经济预计，去年12月核心PCE物价指数环比或上涨0.3%，将同比推高至2.9%，显示年末通胀有所升温。尽管美国政府停摆带来干扰，但第四季度GDP 增速料将达到3.0%，高于市场预期的2.8%。 投资者还 ...

来源：滚动播报 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos撰文称，美国经济的各项关键指标正指向同一个积极方向，通胀正在下 降，劳动力市场保持坚挺，经济增长稳固。这并非最终定论，但已是美国经济有史以来最接近实现软着 陆（即在避免经济衰退的同时遏制通胀）的一次。就在四年前，许多经济学家还认为这不可能。如今， 美国经济在不陷入衰退的情况下让通胀回落至美联储2%目标的情景，再次变得可信。不过即使不需要 氧气面罩，现在解开安全带还为时过早。美联储偏爱的通胀指标核心PCE年率目前接近3%，多位预测 人士预计，随着与关税相关的价格上涨传导到更多地方，今年通胀难有大的进展。与此同时，劳动力市 场可能不如上周报告所显示的那么稳固。Payden&Rygel首席经济学家杰弗里·克利夫兰表示，客观地 说，劳动力市场一直疲软，今年失业率更可能上升而非下降。 ...

Group 1 - Bitcoin price experienced significant volatility, reaching a peak of $71,000 before dropping below $69,000, while Ethereum fell over 3% [1] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 110,000 individuals in the cryptocurrency market faced liquidation [1] Group 2 - In the last 24 hours, total liquidations amounted to $270 million, with long positions accounting for $150 million and short positions for $120 million [2] - The upcoming week will see the release of key economic indicators, including the December PCE data and preliminary Q4 GDP, which are expected to show a rise in inflation and a GDP growth rate of 3.0%, surpassing market expectations [2] - The U.S. money market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in July, with expectations of a cumulative reduction of approximately 60 basis points by 2026 [3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June has surged to 83%, up from 49.9% previously [3]

Group 1 - Bitcoin price experienced significant volatility, reaching a peak of $71,000 before dropping below $69,000, while Ethereum fell over 3% [1] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 110,000 individuals in the cryptocurrency market faced liquidation [1] Group 2 - In the last 24 hours, total liquidations amounted to $270 million, with long positions accounting for $150 million and short positions for $120 million [2] - The upcoming week will see the release of key economic indicators, including the December PCE data and preliminary Q4 GDP, which are expected to show an increase in inflation and a GDP growth rate of 3.0% [2] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes to assess the divergence between officials favoring rate stability and those advocating for rate cuts [2] Group 3 - The U.S. money market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in July, with expectations of a cumulative reduction of approximately 60 basis points by 2026 [3] - The probability of a rate cut in June has surged to 83%, up from 49.9% previously, indicating increased market confidence in potential monetary easing [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant upcoming economic events and data releases, particularly focusing on the AI industry during the Chinese New Year, macroeconomic indicators, and geopolitical developments that may impact global markets [6][7][11]. Group 1: AI Industry Developments - The "AI Spring Festival" is set to be a major theme, with the first Indian AI Summit featuring prominent tech leaders like NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang and Google's CEO Sundar Pichai from February 15 to 20 [9][10]. - DeepSeek's new flagship model V4 is expected to be released around mid-February, showcasing improvements in programming capabilities that may surpass existing top models in the market [8]. - Google is set to launch the Pixel 10a smartphone and Android 17 Beta 1 on February 18, coinciding with the AI developments [12]. Group 2: Key Macroeconomic Data and Policy - The U.S. Federal Reserve will release the December PCE inflation data and the fourth-quarter GDP initial estimate on February 20, with expectations of a 0.3% month-on-month increase in core PCE, raising the year-on-year rate to 2.9% [7]. - The fourth-quarter GDP growth is projected to reach 3.0%, exceeding market expectations of 2.8% [7]. - The FOMC meeting minutes from January are anticipated to show increasing support for a prolonged pause in interest rate cuts, although inflation trends may allow for a potential 100 basis points cut later in the year [7]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Market Events - The longest Chinese New Year holiday, lasting nine days from February 15 to 23, will see major stock exchanges, including those in China and Hong Kong, closed [13][14]. - The U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to rule on the constitutionality of tariffs imposed by former President Trump on February 20, which could significantly impact trade policies and result in over $16 billion in monthly losses for importers if deemed unconstitutional [11]. - Japan will hold a prime ministerial election on February 18, with the current cabinet expected to resign, which may lead to fluctuations in the yen's exchange rate [19].

被市场称为"新美联储通讯社"的《华尔街日报》记者Nick Timiraos指出，美国经济的多项关键指标正同 时向好，通胀降温，就业保持韧性，增长仍算稳健，"软着陆"正变得前所未有地接近，但距离盖棺定论 仍有差距。 政策与市场的下一步也更敏感。鲍威尔任期将于5月结束，若经济继续强劲，白宫可能要求降息，而特 朗普拟接棒人选沃什将以"巩固成果"还是"降息追求更宏伟目标"为导向，也可能重塑未来的政策路径。 通胀回落更像"快照"，2%目标仍未到手 不过，数据的"漂亮"并不等于任务完成。核心通胀仍接近3%，较去年4月触及的2.6%低点有所回升， Nick Timiraos指出，多位分析人士预计关税涨价从港口向商店传导后，今年通胀下行可能放缓，甚至停 滞在2%目标之上。 Timiraos在文中称，最新核心通胀读数在一定程度上受到去年秋季政府停摆造成的数据缺口影响，存 在"技术性压低"的因素，但它仍显示出今年年初并未重演过去三年那种破坏通胀回落叙事的价格压力。 与此同时，通胀结构仍不轻松。报告显示，住房成本这一此前推升通胀的最大驱动项已明显降温，但住 房之外的服务价格仍偏坚挺，且对关税更敏感的商品价格出现加速。 剔除二手车后 ...