Core Insights - Gold prices have risen to $4,450 per ounce due to heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding Venezuela and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][2] - The overall demand for precious metals remains strong, with silver prices also increasing [1] - Platinum is testing resistance levels between $2,245 and $2,265, indicating active market performance [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela, which is influencing the demand for precious metals [1][3] - The dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have raised expectations for interest rate cuts, further supporting gold prices [2] - Investors anticipate at least two interest rate cuts this year, which could enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold and silver [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - If gold can maintain levels above $4,450, it may target the next resistance level at $4,540 to $4,550 [3] - Silver has gained strong upward momentum, with a potential breakout above the resistance zone of $77.50 to $78.00, which could lead to further gains towards $83.50 to $84.00 [3] - Platinum's current testing of the $2,245 to $2,265 resistance level could lead to further upward movement towards $2,510 to $2,530 if successful [3]

今日周二(1月6日)欧盘时段，国际白银目前交投于78.60一线上方，今日开盘于76.63美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银暂 报79.01美元/盎司，上涨3.19%，最高触及79.34美元/盎司，最低下探75.84美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向 看涨走势。 斯皮瓦克补充称："美国-委内瑞拉事件马杜罗凸显了更广泛意义上的去全球化趋势。"在低利率环境以及地缘政治或经济 不确定性时期，不产生收益的资产通常表现较好。 目前据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为18.3%，维持利率不变的概率为81.7%。到3月累计降息25个 基点的概率为43.2%，维持利率不变的概率为49.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为7.2%。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 白银昨日收长阳柱，升破5日均线，日线RSI仍位于高位，4小时一度逼近颈线压力78，短线趋势再度转多，76附近企稳 可继续进多。 白银阻力最小的路径是上行。下一个关键阻力位是12月30日的高点78.06美元，随后是79.00美元和80.00美元。另一方 面，如果银价跌破75.00美元，下一水平将是1月2日高位74.55美元的支撑位，之后是74.00美元/盎 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals saw a collective rise, with the main contract for zinc futures reported at 24,325.00 CNY/ton, marking a significant increase of 2.40% [1] - The market's reaction to geopolitical conflicts has been muted, while the unexpected contraction of the US ISM manufacturing PMI in December has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in the dollar and boosting metal prices [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - From a global perspective, the cyclical increase in zinc supply is gradually materializing, but the transmission of increased production from mines to smelting has been delayed due to reductions in overseas smelting operations [2] - Despite an increase in zinc mining over the past year, global smelting capacity remains relatively excessive compared to mining capacity, and this situation of increased refined zinc production and low processing fees is expected to persist until 2026 [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - The end-of-year consumption season shows clear signs of a slowdown; however, due to the later timing of the Spring Festival this year, there remains a rigid demand for purchases [2] - The recovery of profits for overseas smelting companies is leading to a gradual resumption of production, coupled with domestic refined zinc exports, which has alleviated the tight supply-demand situation overseas [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The zinc concentrate treatment charges (TC) have significantly decreased in January, and domestic smelters are undergoing maintenance, resulting in weaker supply-side pressure [2] - As downstream consumption is expected to gradually recover after the holiday, along with bullish expectations for the first quarter of 2026, there is an anticipated influx of long positions in the market, driving prices higher [2] - The current spot market pricing is somewhat chaotic, with downstream buyers showing insufficient willingness to purchase at high prices, and short-term zinc futures are expected to consolidate around the 23,800 CNY level [2] - Technically, zinc futures remain in a rebound pattern, with a solid bottom and resistance levels between 24,000 and 24,200 CNY/ton [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching $4469.17 per ounce, up 0.47%, with a high of $4469.49 and a low of $4426.09, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The recent U.S. military operation in Venezuela has significantly impacted the geopolitical landscape in Latin America, leading to increased uncertainty in energy supply and prompting global investors to seek refuge in gold [2] - Analysts predict that gold will remain a key asset for portfolio hedging, with an expected average price of $4538 per ounce for the year, especially during periods of monetary easing and inflation exceeding 2% [2] Group 2 - The gold market experienced a strong upward movement, opening at $4350.7, dipping to a low of $4344.8, and then rising to a high of $4455.6, closing at $4448.9, indicating a bullish trend [3] - Market participants are advised to adjust their positions with specific stop-loss levels and targets, indicating a strategic approach to trading in the current volatile environment [3]

Group 1 - COMEX gold prices stabilized and continued to rise, closing at $4459.7 per ounce with a gain of 3.00% [6] - Domestic SHFE gold night trading recovered from pre-holiday declines, closing above 1000 at ¥1001.60 per gram, with a gain of 0.93% [6] - The ISM manufacturing index for December in the U.S. slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, marking the largest contraction since 2024 and indicating a challenging year for U.S. manufacturing [6] Group 2 - In December, 15 industries experienced contraction, with apparel, wood products, and textiles leading the decline; only two industries showed growth, the lowest since the end of 2023 [6] - The decline in the ISM index has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, supporting gold price trends [6] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Venezuela conflict, have raised concerns and led to an influx of safe-haven investments into precious metals, likely sustaining a strong gold market [6]

Group 1 - AllianceBernstein holds a constructive view on the global fixed income market for 2026, citing a favorable macroeconomic backdrop for bond investors [1] - The firm anticipates a slowdown in economic growth across both developed and emerging markets, with rising unemployment rates and persistent inflation above target levels, creating challenges for central banks [1] - Despite concerns over sticky inflation limiting policy flexibility, AllianceBernstein believes central banks will prioritize addressing slowing growth and a weak labor market, predicting multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the next year and further easing potential from the Bank of England [1] - Historical trends suggest that a combination of declining policy rates, slowing growth, and easing inflation typically creates a favorable environment for bonds, with expectations of gradually declining yields and a steepening yield curve over the next 12 months [1] - The firm recommends maintaining duration positioning as a defensive strategy, highlighting its potential to hedge against stock market volatility, and notes that with cash yields likely to decline, there is room for capital to rotate into the bond market [1] Group 2 - A focus on fixed income exchange-traded funds (ETFs) includes long-term U.S. Treasury ETFs such as iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US) and iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH.US) [2] - Comprehensive bond ETFs mentioned are the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG.US) and Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND.US) [2] - Inflation-protected ETFs include Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (VTIP.US) and iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP.US) [2]

汇通财经APP讯——周二亚洲早盘，黄金价格（XAU/USD）上行至4440美元附近，延续此前涨势，并 触及近一周高点。整体来看，金价走强主要受避险资金流入推动，反映出市场对短期不确定性的重新定 价。 在风险偏好下降的环境下，黄金作为传统避险资产再次受到关注，资金配置意愿明显回升。 地区局势 变化推升避险情绪 近期，围绕委内瑞拉的局势出现明显变化，引发市场对地区稳定性及潜在连锁反应 的担忧。 在不确定性放大的背景下，黄金的避险属性被重新激活。这类事件本身未必直接影响黄金供需，但通过 情绪和资产配置渠道，对价格形成支撑。 贵金属市场交易人士指出，当前避险买盘并非孤立出现，而是叠加在全球地缘风险、能源供应担忧以及 货币政策不确定性之上。 若数据偏弱，则可能强化降息预期，为金价提供进一步上行动力。 在宏观事件密集的背景下，数据结 果对短期走势的影响或被明显放大。 美联储宽松预期构成中期支撑 除避险因素外，美联储政策预期依然是支撑金价的重要基本面因素。 近期公布的联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要显示，多数政策制定者认为，在通胀逐步回落的前提下，进一 步下调利率是合适的选择，尽管在具体节奏和幅度上仍存在分歧。这使得金价在回调过 ...

周二亚洲交易时段，英镑/美元货币对呈现小幅走低态势，部分回吐前一交易日的上涨成果。 此前该货币对曾强势上行至1.3545-1.3550区间，创下2025年9月以来的阶段性高点。 最新公布的经济数据显示，英国零售协会周二发布报告指出，12月整体商店价格同比上涨0.7%，其中食品通胀表现尤为值得关注， 从11月的3.0%攀升至3.3%。这一通胀数据的变化，可能会促使市场重新评估英国央行的政策宽松预期，进而对英镑形成支撑，短期 内英镑/美元的空头力量或需保持谨慎态度。 对于后续市场走势而言，即将公布的经济数据将成为关键驱动力。 目前市场参与者正等待英国和美国最终服务业PMI数据的出炉，期望从中获取新的交易指引。不过需要注意的是，当前市场焦点仍 高度集中于周五即将公布的美国非农就业报告（NFP），在此之前，短期市场大概率将维持相对平淡的运行格局，波动空间或较为 有限。 除非农就业报告外，本月初即将公布的其他多项美国核心宏观经济数据，也将为市场判断美联储降息路径提供重要参考。这些数据 的表现将直接影响市场对美元的需求变化，进而推动英镑/美元汇率的短期走势。 数据显示，标普全球美国制造业PMI维持在51.8的水平，这一数 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：金银铜重回涨势，A 股迎来开门红 海外方面，美国 12 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 由 48.2 降至 47.9，弱于预期且连续 10 个月处于 收缩区间，分项来看，主要受库存加速去化拖累，新订单与出口需求持续偏弱，就业继续下 降但降幅放缓；支付价格指数维持在 58.5，显示价格压力仍具黏性。PMI 下行鉴于客户库存 同样偏低，需求短期存在边际修复空间。在美逮捕委总统后，市场风偏并未走弱，道指创下 历史新高，美指震荡走高至 98.4，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.16%，金属价格在岁末年初调整震 荡后重回上行，金价涨超 2%，银价涨超 5%，铜价涨幅近 5%、首次站上 13,000 美元/吨， 在智利铜矿罢工、市场对中期供应缺口的预期以及 LME 认证库存偏低的共同作用下，供应 端忧虑迅速升温。 国内方面，中国 12 月 RatingDog 服务业 PMI 维持在 52，服务业扩张已连续三年延续， 显示内需端具备一定韧性；但新出口订单在 11 月短暂修复后再度回落至收缩区间， ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market remains bullish due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank buying, with short-term price movements expected to oscillate at high levels [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, testing the $4400 level multiple times, reaching a high of $4402 before retreating to a low of $4309, stabilizing above $4300 [1][5]. - On the following Monday, gold opened higher, breaking through the $4400 resistance and peaking at $4438, currently trading around $4434, aligning with the bullish fundamentals [1][5]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Short-term technical indicators suggest a need for a rebound, with support levels identified at $4353, $4324, and $4300, while resistance levels are at $4400 and $4450 [1][5]. - The daily chart indicates a strong upward movement, with the potential for further gains if gold maintains above the $4400 support level, which coincides with the 10-day moving average [6][7]. Group 3: External Influences - Recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela have heightened market risk aversion, boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3][6]. - The increase in margin requirements for precious metals futures by the CME has led some investors to take profits, contributing to short-term selling pressure, but overall demand remains supported by interest rate cut expectations and central bank purchases [2][6].