Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on high-risk assets, particularly cryptocurrencies, while expressing optimism for AI technology and the Macau tourism sector [3]. Core Views - The market is currently under pressure due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate discussions and ongoing debates about AI, leading to significant declines in high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Concerns are rising regarding the sustainability of AI's commercial applications despite its recognized efficiency improvements. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on technology leaders with strong cash flows, such as Google, META, Microsoft, Alibaba, and Tencent, while also monitoring the application of AI in various sectors [3]. - The Macau tourism industry is highlighted as a valuable investment opportunity, benefiting from a favorable supply-demand dynamic and expected growth during the upcoming holiday periods [3]. - The report suggests that trading platforms remain attractive, with potential for accumulation following market corrections [3]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet 1.1.1 Education - The Chinese education index fell by 4.60%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index but underperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite [11]. - New Oriental launched an AI education product, SureChinese, aimed at a broader audience, with 160,000 users across 138 countries [19]. 1.1.2 Luxury Goods & Gambling - The S&P Global Luxury Goods Index decreased by 1.49%, with notable declines in major gambling stocks like Sands China and Wynn Macau [21]. - The upcoming sports events in Macau are expected to attract over 2 million tourists, boosting the local tourism sector [3]. 1.1.3 Coffee & Tea - The coffee sector remains robust, while the tea segment faces challenges due to reduced promotional activities from delivery platforms [30]. 1.1.4 E-commerce & Internet - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index fell by 5.90%, with mixed performances among major e-commerce players [36]. - Pinduoduo reported a 9% year-on-year revenue increase, reaching 108.3 billion yuan [41]. 1.2 Platforms & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng Media Index dropped by 6.86%, with mixed results among key players like iQIYI and Spotify [45]. - iQIYI reported a revenue decline of 8% year-on-year for Q3 [53]. 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization fell to $305.32 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices decreasing by 10% and 11% respectively [49]. - Futu Holdings reported a significant revenue increase of 86% year-on-year for Q3 [56]. 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The automotive sector saw a mixed performance, with some companies like AutoZone and O'Reilly Auto Parts showing gains while others faced declines [60].

Global Market Volatility - The global stock markets experienced a collective pullback due to three main factors: increased financial fragility from overseas liquidity issues, protective options expirations causing volatility, and concerns over the sustainability of capital expenditures by major US tech companies [2][13][24] - The overnight mortgage rates in the US are inverted with the federal funds rate, indicating tight liquidity in the US money market [14][18] - The capital expenditure of major data center operators has significantly increased, with Oracle's capital expenditure exceeding its operating cash flow [24][25] Industry Development: Key Node Similar to 1997 Internet Boom - The internet boom from 1995 to 2000 can be divided into three phases, with the current AI industry potentially at a similar critical juncture as the internet in 1997 [3][29] - The first phase saw significant profit growth in upstream internet equipment companies, while the second phase marked the rise of internet service providers and the emergence of companies like Amazon [29][30] - The third phase experienced rapid revenue growth in downstream internet companies but deteriorating cash flow, leading to a decline in stock prices for these companies [30][31] Potential Impacts of AI Development on the Market - Three potential paths for AI development are identified: the emergence of significant applications leading to continued market growth, stagnation in AI applications causing tech giants to halt capital expenditures, or tech giants maintaining capital expenditures despite a lack of application progress [4][44][47] - The current situation reflects a mix of these scenarios, with tech giants increasing capital expenditures to maintain market share and reduce labor costs through AI [4][53] Highlights in Non-Tech Sectors - The US real estate market is in a recovery phase, with declining mortgage rates boosting existing home sales [5][56] - There is a continuous increase in the shipment of industrial machinery and primary metals, indicating ongoing recovery in equipment investment [5][56][58] - The labor market shows pressure with rising unemployment rates and slowing wage growth, which may benefit emerging market manufacturing recovery [5][56] Focus on China's Market Opportunities - The recent global market volatility is not seen as a directional choice for macro and industry trends, but rather as a reflection of the true driving forces behind future opportunities in the Chinese market [6] - Traditional manufacturing companies in China have realized performance amidst the global tech boom, suggesting that physical assets and manufacturing capacity will be the foundation of a potential bull market in China [6]

Group 1: Company Overview - Moer Technology is a leading domestic GPU manufacturer and will become the "first domestic GPU stock" upon listing, with an issue price of 114.28 yuan per share, the highest for new stocks this year [1] - The total share capital after the issuance of Moer Technology will be 470 million shares, with a total market value of 53.7 billion yuan at the time of listing [1] - Baiaosaitu is engaged in preclinical CRO and biotechnology, with four technology platforms for various innovative animal models and drug development services [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance - Moer Technology has not yet achieved profitability, with projected revenues of 46.0883 million yuan in 2022, increasing to 1.24 billion yuan in 2024, and an expected revenue of 1.218 billion to 1.498 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 177.79% to 241.65% [2] - Baiaosaitu's revenues for 2022 to 2024 are projected at 534 million yuan, 717 million yuan, and 980 million yuan, with a net profit of 340 million yuan expected in 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 303.57% [3] Group 3: Market Position and Competition - Major global players like NVIDIA and AMD dominate the integrated circuit market, while Moer Technology and other Chinese companies are gradually gaining market share in their specialized fields, contributing to the self-sufficiency of China's GPU industry [2] - Moer Technology has launched four generations of GPU architectures since its establishment in 2020, focusing on applications in AI, cloud computing, and personal computing [1]

Investment Focus - The report indicates that after a completed correction phase, a rebound in the market is anticipated, particularly in the tech sector, as liquidity pressures ease and external catalysts accumulate [1][6][14] - The Hang Seng Tech Index has retraced 60% of its year-to-date gains, while the STAR 50 has given back half of its rise, indicating a significant correction in the Chinese tech market [4][12] - A-share equity ETFs have seen a net inflow of RMB 6.1 billion in the first four days of the week, suggesting continued interest in the market despite recent declines [5][13] Market Conditions - U.S. equities have faced downward pressure, with expectations for a December Fed rate cut rising from 35% to 71%, which has influenced global market sentiment [2][10] - The report notes that the recent decline in U.S. tech stocks is primarily due to profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift in the AI cycle, with optimism for AI demand remaining intact [3][11] - The report highlights that the A-share market has seen a decrease in turnover, with total turnover falling to RMB 1.7 trillion, indicating a consolidation phase before the next trend [4][12] Sector Analysis - The report expresses a positive outlook for the tech sector, particularly for the Hang Seng Tech Index and domestic compute names, supported by strong AI policy certainty in China [6][14] - The banking and insurance sectors have seen substantial rallies, but momentum is slowing, while the brokerage sector, which has had smaller year-to-date gains, may become a stabilizer in the market [6][14] - The report mentions that low-valuation consumption and property sectors are in a gradual upward channel, with potential upside supported by valuation and policy expectations [16]

Group 1: Economic Events and Data Releases - The U.S. Labor Department will release the September PPI on November 25, and the third quarter GDP revision along with personal income, spending, and PCE price index will be published on November 26 [9][10] - China's October industrial enterprise profits increased by 21.6% year-on-year, and the official manufacturing PMI for November is expected to be 49 [11] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow over 3.0% in the current quarter, driven by consumer spending, with no significant acceleration expected in the PCE price index [10] Group 2: Corporate Earnings Reports - Key earnings reports are anticipated from Alibaba, Meituan, Li Auto, NIO, and Pony.ai, with Alibaba's report scheduled for November 28 and Meituan's for November 29 [6][7] - Newly listed companies such as Pony.ai and WeRide, along with Dell, HP, Chow Tai Fook, and Bosideng, are also set to release their earnings [7] Group 3: Major Corporate Events - Huawei is set to hold a product launch event on November 25, where the Mate 80 series and new Kirin chips are expected to be unveiled [16][17] - The first domestic GPU stock, Moore Threads, will be available for subscription on November 24, with an issue price of 114.28 yuan per share, marking the highest issue price of the year [18] Group 4: Political and Regulatory Developments - Trump plans to sign an AI policy called the "Genesis Mission" at the White House, which may involve increased collaboration between national laboratories and the private sector [14][15] - Trump has set November 27 as the deadline for Ukraine to accept the U.S. "28-point plan" for peace, which includes commitments from Ukraine regarding NATO [12][13] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Michael Burry has indicated that major tech companies are underestimating depreciation, leading to inflated profits, with details to be disclosed on November 25 [19][20]

Domestic and International Developments - China Tourism Group leads the establishment of a new central enterprise focused on cruise operations, with the fleet size ranking first in Asia [2] - The first large-capacity all-solid-state battery production line in China has been completed and is currently undergoing small-scale testing [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has officially launched commercial trials for satellite IoT services, aiming to stimulate private sector vitality and promote the integration of the real and digital economies [4] Capital Market Insights - Sixteen hard technology-themed funds, including those focused on AI and chips, have been rapidly approved, signaling regulatory support for strategic emerging industries [10] - Citic Securities highlights that the volatility in global risk assets is primarily due to liquidity issues and an over-reliance on AI narratives, suggesting that valuation corrections may be necessary as market conditions evolve [11][12]

Group 1 - Recent adjustments in the A-share market are primarily due to weak domestic economic data, a strong US dollar index, year-end performance pressures, and a cautious funding environment [2][4][50] - The key signals for market stabilization will come from the political bureau meeting and the central economic work conference scheduled for December, which are expected to provide strong expansionary policies [5][50][51] - The market is likely to remain in a data and policy vacuum in the short term, but there is potential for a rebound in the first quarter of the following year, with a high probability of reaching new highs [6][51] Group 2 - The performance of technology stocks may lag behind large-cap blue-chip and financial cyclical stocks during this period, with a focus on cyclical resource price increases, service consumption, and self-sufficiency as the main investment themes [6][51] - The A-share market has shown a significant adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 3.9% and the CSI 300 Index falling 3.8% in a single week, marking the largest weekly decline since April [7][50] - The small-cap stocks have faced increased pressure as they approach the performance disclosure period, leading to a notable underperformance compared to larger indices [20][21][50]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive design approach of XPeng Motors emphasizes the integration of AI to enhance user experience through innovative design language, combining technology and artistry [2] Group 1: Design Philosophy - XPeng Motors' design philosophy is characterized by a blend of rationality and emotional appeal, where technology provides strong support while artistic elements evoke emotional value [2] - The design is described as a combination of cold steel and organic forms, aiming to create a visually appealing and emotionally resonant product [2] Group 2: AI and User Experience - The use of AI in automotive design is aimed at expanding physical boundaries and delivering new user experiences [2] - The exploration of new design languages reflects a spirit of vitality and fearlessness, indicating a forward-thinking approach in the automotive industry [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the stock market in 2025 will experience a recovery in confidence similar to previous bull markets with significant gains, driven primarily by a shift towards innovation, particularly in AI [1][3] - The current market is characterized as an idealistic market rather than a utilitarian one, indicating that investor confidence is not primarily based on tracking financial reports or order volumes [3] Group 2 - The emergence of DeepSeek's results has marked a transition for China from a factor-driven growth model to an innovation-driven growth model, highlighting the potential for internationally competitive products [3] - The upcoming bull market is referred to as a "mental bull market," emphasizing the importance of future industries and innovation as the main themes driving investor sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - Moer Technology, known as the "first domestic GPU stock," is set to launch on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with a share price of 114.28 yuan and expected to raise 8 billion yuan in total [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Moer Technology plans to issue 70 million shares, with a total market capitalization projected to reach 53.7 billion yuan upon listing [2]. - The company focuses on the research, design, and sales of full-function GPU products and has become one of the few domestic manufacturers supporting full computational precision from FP8 to FP64 [2]. - Moer Technology was established in June 2020 and has been recognized as a "specialized and innovative" small giant enterprise by the state [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 0.46 million yuan in 2022, 1.24 million yuan in 2023, and is projected to reach 4.38 million yuan in 2024, while still operating at a loss [3]. - In the first half of 2025, Moer Technology achieved revenues of 7.02 million yuan, surpassing the total revenue of the previous three years [3]. - The net profit for the same periods showed losses of 18.94 million yuan in 2022, 17.03 million yuan in 2023, and 16.18 million yuan in 2024, with a loss of 2.71 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The company expresses strong confidence in the future of the industry, anticipating explosive growth in demand for GPU and computing infrastructure driven by AI applications [3]. - According to Frost & Sullivan, the Chinese GPU market is expected to grow to 1.363578 trillion yuan by 2029 [3]. - The management team projects that the company could achieve consolidated profitability by 2027 based on market space, product development, and customer engagement [3].