投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 元月中阳收官在即，消费初显端倪 朝闻道 20260130 市场策略 元月中阳收官在即，2 月谨慎乐观 风格策略 周期轮动续力，消费初显端倪 行业策略 生猪：预期极度悲观，配置价值凸显 主题策略 食品饮料：赔率优化，胜率初显 风险提示 畜禽价格不及预期；畜禽疫病大规模爆发；原材料价格大幅波动；需求不及预期；食品安全、产业政策调 整等。 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 30 日 江韶军 执业证书编号：S0860525090001 jiangshaojun@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 于震荡中护慢牛，自中盘处取超额：朝闻 道 20260128 2026-01-27 震荡依旧，结构为王：朝闻道 20260126 2026-01-25 慢牛预期强化，把握中盘蓝筹：朝闻道 20260123 2026-01-21 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 临近月末再回首，1 月经历了先突破后盘整，中阳收官在即，依旧符合我们"横盘前 震荡，略有走强"的中期判断。 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a favorable outlook for mid-cap blue-chip stocks, particularly in cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals, as well as manufacturing sectors like engineering machinery [6][16]. Core Insights - The anticipated changes are beneficial for mid-cap blue chips, with recent events catalyzing interest in cyclical industries and manufacturing, aligning with the market's shift towards a more balanced risk appetite [6][16]. - Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals, defense and military industry, and machinery equipment, with a noted strengthening trend in these areas [20][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Expected Changes Favoring Mid-Cap Blue Chips - Liquidity expectations have improved, leading to intensified trading activity, driven by rising optimism regarding interest rate cuts following the potential election of BlackRock's Riedel as Fed Chair, with a probability of 54% [9][11]. - Significant price increases in typical petrochemical products such as butadiene rubber, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol have enhanced profitability expectations for refining companies [11][12]. - China's engineering machinery exports surged to USD 6.417 billion in December 2025, a 27.2% year-on-year increase, supported by more active participation in Belt and Road Initiative projects [12][15]. - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, particularly in major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, although the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [15][27]. 2. Trading Dynamics - The report notes that while the overall market sentiment for large-cap stocks has declined, mid-cap and small-cap stocks exhibit stable short-term sentiment with decreasing medium-term uncertainty, suggesting potential for small-cap stocks to catch up [17][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trading behavior through asset volatility, indicating that changes in volatility reflect shifts in trading sentiment [17][20]. 3. Sector Rotation - The report highlights a strengthening trend in cyclical sectors related to mid-cap blue chips, particularly non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, while the real estate sector shows weakening reversal signals [20][21][27]. - Short-term sentiment and medium-term uncertainty for non-ferrous metals, defense, and petrochemical sectors are both on the rise, indicating potential investment opportunities [23][26].

资产配置 | 定期报告 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 28 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-63326320 | | | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | | 美/日风险评价上升，贵金属及低风险特征 | 2026-01-26 | | --- | --- | | 权益占优：20260126 多资产配置周报 | | | CTA 策略仍强，指增和中性策略回暖： | 2026-01-22 | | 20260119 多策略及理财配置周报 | | | 风偏继续向中间集中：20260119 多资产配 | 2026-01-20 | | 置周报 | | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | 国内风险评价稳步下行，A 股/商品占优： | 2026-01-13 | | 20260112 多资产配 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a "structural" investment strategy amidst ongoing market fluctuations, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks as the primary direction for investment [4][8] - The chemical sector, particularly PVC, is highlighted for its potential value re-evaluation due to supply constraints during China's carbon peak period [4][8] - The report discusses the impact of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscription model on the automotive industry, suggesting a shift towards software monetization among domestic car manufacturers [4][8] Market Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation, influenced by the upcoming long holiday and regulatory signals for counter-cyclical adjustments [4][8] - Mid-cap blue-chip stocks are recommended, with a specific focus on the chemical sector and energy-related stocks, as they have shown resilience during market adjustments [4][8] Industry Strategy - The PVC industry is projected to face stricter supply controls, potentially leading to a significant re-evaluation of its market value due to its high energy consumption and carbon emissions [4][8] - Demand for PVC in developing regions such as Africa, Asia, and Latin America is expected to grow, driven by their industrial development needs [4][8] Theme Strategy - Tesla's advancements in FSD and the launch of Robotaxi services are anticipated to influence the domestic automotive sector, encouraging a transition towards software-based revenue models [4][8] - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in intelligent driving and related technologies, as they may benefit from the shift in the automotive landscape [4][8]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a "slow bull" market expectation, suggesting a shift from a previous "crazy bull" sentiment to a more stable outlook, maintaining confidence in mid-cap blue chips and cyclical sectors [2][3] - The cyclical mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the chemical and non-ferrous sectors, are highlighted as key investment opportunities, with a focus on manufacturing and technology growth [3] - The chemical industry is undergoing a transformation, moving from a focus on market share to profitability, influenced by internal policy adjustments and external anti-dumping measures [3] Market Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in cyclical and manufacturing sectors, with an emphasis on non-ferrous metals and chemicals, as well as smart vehicles and robotics [3] - Recommended ETFs include the Hang Seng ETF, Hang Seng Technology ETF, and various sector-specific ETFs such as the Chemical ETF and Non-ferrous ETF [3] Industry Analysis - The chemical industry is reaching the limits of market share expansion due to policy constraints and increased scrutiny on low-quality growth, signaling a need for companies to adjust their strategies [3] - Key areas of focus within the chemical sector include MDI, petrochemicals, phosphate chemicals, PVC, and polyester bottle chips, with a preference for companies demonstrating strong leadership advantages [3] - The zinc market is expected to see price increases due to favorable supply-demand dynamics, driven by infrastructure needs in developing regions and a tightening supply of zinc ore [4][3]

Market Strategy - The index is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with a focus on mid-cap blue chips as the direction for investment [2][6] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with a long-term upward trend anticipated. A shift away from high-risk preferences is seen as beneficial for a healthy market recovery [2][6] Industry Strategy: Coal - The coal industry is transitioning from scale expansion to quality improvement, with a positive long-term outlook for the sector [3][6] - Recent developments include the strategic merger of Henan Energy Group and China Pingmei Shenma Group, indicating significant progress in industry consolidation [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission has released guidelines for the clean and efficient use of coal, emphasizing systematic and refined regulation [6] - Policies aimed at replacing outdated capacity with advanced production capacity signal a shift towards technological and institutional innovation in the energy sector [6] Industry Strategy: Real Estate - The effectiveness of real estate policies is more about their intensity rather than quantity, with expectations for impactful measures such as interest rate cuts and direct financial support for households and enterprises [4][6] - Recent publications have reinforced the signals for stabilizing expectations in the real estate market, suggesting a stronger policy combination may emerge in 2026 [4][6]

Market Strategy - The index is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks as the preferred investment direction [2][6] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with a long-term upward trend anticipated. A shift away from high-risk preferences is seen as beneficial for a healthy market environment [6] Industry Strategy: Coal - The coal industry is transitioning from scale expansion to quality improvement, with a positive long-term outlook for the sector [3][6] - Recent developments include the strategic restructuring of coal companies, such as the merger of Henan Energy Group and China Pingmei Shenma Group, indicating a shift towards enhancing operational quality [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for the clean and efficient use of coal, emphasizing systematic and refined regulation of this primary energy source [6] - Policies aimed at replacing outdated production capacity with advanced capabilities signal a move towards innovation-driven growth in the energy sector [6] Industry Strategy: Real Estate - The effectiveness of real estate policies is more about their intensity rather than quantity, with expectations for impactful measures such as interest rate cuts and direct financial support for homebuyers and distressed companies [4][6] - Recent publications have reinforced the signals for stabilizing expectations in the real estate market, suggesting a stronger policy framework may emerge in 2026 [6]

Core Views - The market is returning to a healthy state, and a steady oscillation is essential for long-term sustainability, with a focus on mid-cap blue chips and themes aligned with national strategies [10][11]. Market Analysis - The index experienced a pullback after a high this week, confirming the expectation of a stable market after a short-term emotional release. The regulatory body's work meeting outlined five key tasks for 2026, reinforcing confidence among domestic and international investors and stabilizing the current downward trend in market risk assessment [3][11]. - The regulatory body's precise management of market expectations has effectively mitigated the risk of a market frenzy, leading to a shift in risk preferences. High-risk investors are likely to lower their risk appetite, while low-risk investors are gaining confidence, resulting in an overall movement towards a balanced risk preference [3][11]. Industry Comparison - The report emphasizes a focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the cyclical chemical sector. The previous trends in technology and dividends are seen as reaching their peak, with future investment opportunities expected to arise in stocks with moderate risk characteristics. The mid-cap blue chip market is anticipated to rise, especially in the chemical sector, where profit improvements are expected due to optimized supply structures and marginally improving demand [12][3]. Thematic Investments - Attention is directed towards the semiconductor, robotics, and aerospace satellite sectors. The semiconductor industry is experiencing an upward shift in expectations, with TSMC's positive outlook potentially leading to a revaluation of the sector. Domestic wafer manufacturers are expected to expand production this year, and the capital processes of domestic memory chip leaders are advancing, aligning with national strategies for self-sufficiency [13][3]. - In robotics, significant industry milestones are anticipated in the first quarter, including the release of Tesla's V3 version and its mass production by year-end. The robotics sector is also expected to gain visibility during major events like the Spring Festival [4][13]. - The aerospace satellite sector remains a key focus for national support, with expectations for progress in catching up with international advancements. Investment should focus on companies with genuine performance release expectations or those significantly involved in national aerospace initiatives [4][13]. - The nuclear fusion sector is projected to experience a series of industrial catalysts, transitioning from theoretical research to engineering practice, which is expected to generate substantial investment demand in the future [14][3]. - Short-term price increases are anticipated, with structural growth in demand and supply constraints providing upward price elasticity for related commodities, particularly in non-ferrous metals and chemicals [14][3].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is experiencing disturbances but maintains a long-term upward trend, suggesting that investors should remain vigilant and seek opportunities in mid-cap blue-chip stocks and cyclical sectors like oil, coal, and electricity equipment [3][4]. Market Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks as a stabilizing force in the current market environment, with a focus on cyclical sectors that are expected to continue their upward momentum [3]. - The report notes that the recent adjustments in the index are seen as a healthy correction, allowing for potential investment opportunities in sectors that have shown resilience [3]. Industry Strategy - In the electricity sector, the report highlights that the long-term contract electricity prices are expected to be better than market expectations, with a potential decrease in settlement prices being less severe than anticipated [4]. - The report suggests that the current market sentiment regarding the profitability of the thermal power sector is at a low point, indicating a potential for recovery and better-than-expected earnings in 2026 [4]. Thematic Strategy - The report discusses the integration of AI into consumer electronics, predicting that advancements in AI will accelerate the upgrade of traditional hardware products, particularly in computers, displays, and home appliances [5]. - It also highlights the potential breakthroughs in AI hardware, such as AI glasses and headphones, which are expected to enhance user interaction experiences [5].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is experiencing disturbances but maintains a long-term upward trend, suggesting that investors should remain vigilant and seek opportunities in mid-cap blue-chip stocks and cyclical sectors like oil, coal, and power equipment [3][4]. Market Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks as a stabilizing force in the current market environment, with a focus on cyclical sectors that are expected to continue their upward momentum [3][4]. - The report notes that the recent adjustments in the index are seen as healthy, allowing for a search for offensive opportunities while maintaining a defensive posture [3]. Industry Strategy - In the power sector, the report highlights that the long-term contract electricity prices are expected to be better than market expectations, with the actual settlement prices for thermal power likely to decline less than anticipated [4]. - The report suggests that the current market sentiment regarding the profitability of the thermal power sector is at a low point, indicating potential for better-than-expected earnings in 2026 [4]. Thematic Strategy - The report discusses the integration of AI into consumer electronics, predicting that advancements in AI will accelerate the upgrade of traditional hardware products, particularly in computers, displays, and home appliances [5]. - It also mentions that innovative AI hardware, such as AI glasses and headphones, is expected to enhance user interaction experiences, despite some skepticism regarding user acceptance [5].