资金面小幅收敛，债市情绪偏弱 上周（5.12-5.18），中美关税政策的调整对全球资本市场带来正面影响，尤其是权益类市场重获资金关注，也造成了债市短期的压力，资金面出现了小幅收 敛，债市情绪偏弱。 公开数据统计，上周央行公开市场开展4860亿7天逆回购操作，到期8361亿，全周净回笼3501亿元，全周DR007围绕于1.50%波动，资金价格后半周有所抬 升。 每经记者｜任飞 每经编辑｜叶峰 上周，国债期货震荡走弱，资金面又一次出现收敛。债市情绪偏弱背景下，基金投资收益率并不理想，不过，市场中并不缺少做多的理由。总体来看，目前 影响债市的关键是不确定性因素对短期市场情绪的扰动，不过，有分析指出，利多事件的冲击对于债市的影响在今年来看是一个非常迅速的过程，债券资产 依然在年内有配置的必要和机会。 资金面是市场最为关注的因素，就目前市场的预期来看，有分析指出，预计税期资金面均衡略转紧，市场情绪整体偏弱。 根据上海东证期货的研报分析，由于中美贸易谈判进展超预期，资金面边际收敛，国债期货震荡调整，5年期到7年期品种调整幅度相对较大。 从基金的表现来看，中长期纯债基金平均业绩表现不及短债基金。Wind统计显示，短债基金上 ...

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - The core viewpoint indicates that under the context of the US-China competition, the probability of continued tightening in monetary policy is low, suggesting significant downward elasticity for short-term interest rates and structural opportunities in bonds with maturities of 7 years or less [2] - The market's perception shows that the strategy of "duration hugging" has led to rapid fluctuations in long-term bond yields, which are now stabilizing [2] - Since mid-March, there has been a notable decline in credit spreads for various short-term bonds, indicating a shift in institutional buying behavior towards short-term credit bonds for yield opportunities [2][3] Group 2: A-Share Market Strategy - The core viewpoint suggests that after the release of the US-China Geneva communiqué, the market continues to experience upward momentum, primarily characterized by strong fluctuations [4] - The market has surpassed the levels seen before the comprehensive tariff war on April 3, indicating pressure from both dense trading zones above and profit-taking from short-term investors [4] - The report anticipates that the market will undergo a period of consolidation to alleviate the pressure from dense trading zones and short-term profit-taking [4][5]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated potential changes to tariffs on Chinese goods, responding to pressure from 352 American companies facing supply chain disruptions and rising costs [1][3][5] - The proposed adjustments are likely to focus on non-strategic consumer goods and intermediate products, aiming to alleviate inflation and reduce production costs for U.S. businesses [5][9][11] - Despite the Treasury's intentions, significant political hurdles remain, including opposition from hawkish lawmakers and the U.S. Trade Representative, who views tariffs as a critical leverage point [7][9][19] Group 2 - The ongoing inflation in the U.S., which has exceeded 5% for 18 consecutive months, and supply chain issues are driving the need for tariff adjustments [3][11][15] - The U.S. manufacturing sector has seen average cost increases of 12%, with household appliance prices rising by 23%, impacting low-income families significantly [11][13] - China's response includes a willingness to engage in dialogue, with high-level officials indicating that any negotiations must respect China's core interests [9][15][19] Group 3 - The potential tariff changes reflect a broader shift in U.S.-China relations, moving from confrontation to tentative engagement, driven by economic pressures on both sides [15][19] - The complexity of political dynamics in the U.S. suggests that any significant tariff relief will require extensive negotiations and may not occur swiftly [19] - The global economic landscape is also affected, with the WTO warning that continued trade tensions could lower global growth by 0.8% by 2025 [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - Antong Holdings (600179) is actively promoting its restructuring efforts, but has not provided a specific completion timeline. The company reported a significant increase in net profit for the first quarter, nearly quadrupling compared to the previous year, and stated that recent tariff agreements between China and the U.S. do not have a direct impact on its daily operations. Group 1: Company Performance - As of May 16, 2025, Antong Holdings closed at 3.01 yuan, up 1.69% from the previous week [1] - The company's total market capitalization is 12.737 billion yuan, ranking 22nd out of 35 in the shipping and port sector, and 1226th out of 5147 in the A-share market [1] Group 2: Restructuring Efforts - The company is actively advancing its restructuring work but has not disclosed a specific timeline for completion [4] - During investor inquiries, the company reiterated that all information regarding restructuring will be disclosed through designated media [2][3][4] Group 3: Impact of Tariff Changes - The recent tariff agreements between China and the U.S. are not expected to have a direct impact on the company's daily operations, as its main business focuses on domestic container logistics services [2][4] - The company will continue to monitor policy changes and market trends related to tariffs [2]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：5月14日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 30 ...

热点报告——液化石油气 中美关税阶段性缓和，内外盘定价逻辑分化 | | [Table液_R化an石k]油气：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 14 | 日 [Table_Analyser] | | 走势评级： 报告日期： | | | | | | | [Table_Summary] ★中美关税缓和超预期，FEI/CP 价差显著收窄 关税缓和对国际纸货价格产生了明显的影响，中国进口美国货 可能性的提升支撑 6 月 FEI 纸货价格大幅上涨，同时此前 CP 价 格来自中国寻求美国货替代来源的支撑预期部分消退下有所回 落，FEI-CP 价差走强，但并未走强至对等关税加征前水平，6 月合约两者价差走强至-20 美元/吨后上行乏力。 能 源 结合当前的 LPG 商品基本面以及宏观环境仍存在不确定性的整 体情景，我们预计短期 FEI 向上和 CP 向下的进一步驱动相对有 限，CP 预计仍将较 FEI 表现偏强。 与 碳 ★ C4 需求疲弱叠加仓单压制下，关税缓和对内盘价格影响有限 中 和 相对于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of US-China tariff policies on the photovoltaic (PV) industry, the future development of the solar market, and the technological advancements in solar cells, highlighting the optimistic outlook for global solar installations by 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: Impact of US-China Tariff Policies - The easing of US-China tariff policies is expected to provide a more stable overseas trade environment for solar and energy storage products [3]. - Companies like JinkoSolar and Trina Solar have sufficient inventory to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs, with ongoing projects in regions like the Middle East enhancing their global supply capabilities [3][4]. - The solar equipment manufacturer, Aotai, is proactively expanding its manufacturing base in Malaysia to address future export requirements amid tariff uncertainties [5]. Group 2: Future Market Trends - JinkoSolar forecasts a 10% year-on-year growth in global solar installation demand by 2025, driven by emerging markets in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific [6]. - The solar industry is expected to transition from losses to breakeven and eventually profitability, as the supply-side reforms take effect and inefficient capacities are eliminated [6][7]. - Despite a current oversupply situation, companies are focusing on balancing shipment volumes with profit margins, prioritizing high-price market orders [7]. Group 3: Technological Developments - The industry is shifting towards TOPCon technology as the mainstream solar cell technology, with companies like JinkoSolar and Trina Solar leading in this area [8]. - The financing environment for solar companies remains stable, with banks willing to support leading firms in the industry, particularly those with strong technological advancements and market shares [9].

值得注意的是，央行在一季度货币政策执行报告中指出将"继续从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行 情况，关注国债收益率的变化，视市场供求状况择机恢复操作。"今年1月，央行宣布阶段性暂停在公开 市场买入国债，维护流动性和债券市场平稳运行。 招商证券固定收益首席分析师张伟指出，历史上"双降"公布后，1年期国债收益率倾向于回落，因为"双 降"后将直接利好资金面转松，但是10年期国债收益率走势分化较大。去年9月"双降"公布后，长端利率 阶段性上行，一方面是风险偏好大幅改善，另一方面是房地产政策和财政政策加码发力。 光大证券固定收益首席分析师张旭认为，央行重启国债买卖，应该在债市供给明显加大、市场担心债券 供过于求时买入。此时市场对于央行的买入操作相对不敏感，即相同净买入规模对于利率的影响低于供 不应求时。他表示，倘若市场在较长时段里一直处于强烈的"牛市思维"，央行的国债买卖操作有可能陷 入被动。 自中国人民银行宣布新一轮降准降息后，国债收益率走势出现明显分化，截至5月13日，1年期中债国债 到期收益率较月初(5月6日)下行4.93个基点至1.4131%，10年期、30年期国债收益率分别较月初上行5.06 个基点、5.2个基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The joint performance briefing by major solar companies highlighted the impact of US-China tariff policies on the photovoltaic industry and the outlook for future development in the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of US-China Tariff Policies - The easing of US-China tariff policies is expected to provide a more stable overseas trade environment for solar and energy storage products [3]. - Companies like JinkoSolar and Canadian Solar have indicated that their exports to the US are minimally affected due to previous tariffs, with a focus on Southeast Asia and local US production [3][4]. - Trina Solar has sufficient inventory of battery components in the US, which will mitigate the impact of any new tariffs [4]. - Companies are actively negotiating with clients to manage the impact of tariff changes on existing contracts [3][5]. Group 2: Future Outlook for the Photovoltaic Industry - The global demand for photovoltaic installations is projected to grow by over 10% year-on-year by 2025, driven by emerging markets in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific [6]. - The industry is expected to transition from a phase of losses to a balance point and eventually profitability, despite current adjustments [7]. - The market is witnessing a gradual price stabilization, with a slight increase in upstream prices anticipated in early 2025 [7]. - The industry is undergoing a cleansing process where outdated capacities are being eliminated, leading to a healthier market environment [7][8]. Group 3: Technological Developments and Financing - TOPCon technology is currently the mainstream in the industry, with expectations to remain dominant in the next three to five years [8]. - Companies are focusing on optimizing their financing structures, with a positive outlook on bank financing conditions, indicating a trend of monetary and fiscal easing [9]. - Financial institutions are prioritizing support for leading companies in the photovoltaic sector, particularly those with rapid technological advancements and strong market positions [9].

近期中美关税政策成为市场的一大关注点。12日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布，双方关税大幅下 降。 多位券商分析师认为，关税降级幅度大超市场预期，经济基本面预期和市场情绪都可能大幅改善，或助 力国内权益市场波动中枢抬升。 中美经贸会谈进展超预期，5月13日A股高开，沪指探出近期这波反弹中的新高3386.23点，最终收于 3374.87点，收涨0.17%。 当日，沪深两市获主力资金流入3808.3亿元，有7个行业获得主力资金净流入，主要为美容护理、医药 生物、基础化工、交通运输、社会服务、纺织服饰、公用事业等行业，而国防军工、计算机、电子、机 械设备、汽车、电力设备等行业遭主力资金卖出较多。这与12日主力资金净流入和净流出的行业有所相 反。类似的情况在近期反复出现。 就A股后市走势来看，上述券商分析师认为，短期A股延续震荡偏强走势，可能突破上行；在中期维度 上，指数级别走势依然依赖于基本面改善。 主力资金净流入7个行业 5月13日，A股市场成交1.326万亿元。其中，电子、机械设备、计算机、电力设备行业成交额超过千亿 元，国防军工、汽车、基础化工、医药生物、通信等行业的成交额在500亿～1000亿元之间。相较而 ...