值得注意的是，央行在一季度货币政策执行报告中指出将"继续从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行 情况，关注国债收益率的变化，视市场供求状况择机恢复操作。"今年1月，央行宣布阶段性暂停在公开 市场买入国债，维护流动性和债券市场平稳运行。 招商证券固定收益首席分析师张伟指出，历史上"双降"公布后，1年期国债收益率倾向于回落，因为"双 降"后将直接利好资金面转松，但是10年期国债收益率走势分化较大。去年9月"双降"公布后，长端利率 阶段性上行，一方面是风险偏好大幅改善，另一方面是房地产政策和财政政策加码发力。 光大证券固定收益首席分析师张旭认为，央行重启国债买卖，应该在债市供给明显加大、市场担心债券 供过于求时买入。此时市场对于央行的买入操作相对不敏感，即相同净买入规模对于利率的影响低于供 不应求时。他表示，倘若市场在较长时段里一直处于强烈的"牛市思维"，央行的国债买卖操作有可能陷 入被动。 自中国人民银行宣布新一轮降准降息后，国债收益率走势出现明显分化，截至5月13日，1年期中债国债 到期收益率较月初(5月6日)下行4.93个基点至1.4131%，10年期、30年期国债收益率分别较月初上行5.06 个基点、5.2个基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The joint performance briefing by major solar companies highlighted the impact of US-China tariff policies on the photovoltaic industry and the outlook for future development in the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of US-China Tariff Policies - The easing of US-China tariff policies is expected to provide a more stable overseas trade environment for solar and energy storage products [3]. - Companies like JinkoSolar and Canadian Solar have indicated that their exports to the US are minimally affected due to previous tariffs, with a focus on Southeast Asia and local US production [3][4]. - Trina Solar has sufficient inventory of battery components in the US, which will mitigate the impact of any new tariffs [4]. - Companies are actively negotiating with clients to manage the impact of tariff changes on existing contracts [3][5]. Group 2: Future Outlook for the Photovoltaic Industry - The global demand for photovoltaic installations is projected to grow by over 10% year-on-year by 2025, driven by emerging markets in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific [6]. - The industry is expected to transition from a phase of losses to a balance point and eventually profitability, despite current adjustments [7]. - The market is witnessing a gradual price stabilization, with a slight increase in upstream prices anticipated in early 2025 [7]. - The industry is undergoing a cleansing process where outdated capacities are being eliminated, leading to a healthier market environment [7][8]. Group 3: Technological Developments and Financing - TOPCon technology is currently the mainstream in the industry, with expectations to remain dominant in the next three to five years [8]. - Companies are focusing on optimizing their financing structures, with a positive outlook on bank financing conditions, indicating a trend of monetary and fiscal easing [9]. - Financial institutions are prioritizing support for leading companies in the photovoltaic sector, particularly those with rapid technological advancements and strong market positions [9].

近期中美关税政策成为市场的一大关注点。12日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布，双方关税大幅下 降。 多位券商分析师认为，关税降级幅度大超市场预期，经济基本面预期和市场情绪都可能大幅改善，或助 力国内权益市场波动中枢抬升。 中美经贸会谈进展超预期，5月13日A股高开，沪指探出近期这波反弹中的新高3386.23点，最终收于 3374.87点，收涨0.17%。 当日，沪深两市获主力资金流入3808.3亿元，有7个行业获得主力资金净流入，主要为美容护理、医药 生物、基础化工、交通运输、社会服务、纺织服饰、公用事业等行业，而国防军工、计算机、电子、机 械设备、汽车、电力设备等行业遭主力资金卖出较多。这与12日主力资金净流入和净流出的行业有所相 反。类似的情况在近期反复出现。 就A股后市走势来看，上述券商分析师认为，短期A股延续震荡偏强走势，可能突破上行；在中期维度 上，指数级别走势依然依赖于基本面改善。 主力资金净流入7个行业 5月13日，A股市场成交1.326万亿元。其中，电子、机械设备、计算机、电力设备行业成交额超过千亿 元，国防军工、汽车、基础化工、医药生物、通信等行业的成交额在500亿～1000亿元之间。相较而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shengsheng Electronics, is facing challenges due to high initial manufacturing costs and is working to improve operational performance and market confidence while navigating uncertainties related to U.S. customer relations and tariffs [2][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shengsheng Electronics has commenced operations at its Hefei factory in 2025, which has led to depreciation expenses and higher initial manufacturing costs affecting performance [2]. - The company aims to enhance its operational performance and boost market confidence in its stock price [2]. - A portion of the company's revenue comes from U.S. clients, and it is currently negotiating solutions to address potential impacts from recent events [2]. Group 2: Impact of Policies - The company's operations at its Czech factory have not been affected by China's recent rare earth export restrictions [3]. - The U.S.-China tariff policies are expected to cause short-term disruptions in trade, but the company is actively discussing strategies with U.S. clients to mitigate potential impacts [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 636 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 27.33 million yuan, a decline of 53.27% [4]. - The company's gross profit margin stood at 20.62%, with a debt ratio of 49.05% [4]. - The company has implemented cost control measures that have improved operational efficiency and profitability [4]. Group 4: Market Ratings and Predictions - Over the past 90 days, four institutions have rated the stock as a buy, with an average target price of 38.76 yuan [6]. - Detailed earnings forecasts indicate projected net profits of 233 million yuan for 2025, increasing to 304 million yuan in 2026 and 359 million yuan in 2027 [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is evolving [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is evolving [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market of the black metal industry is complex, with different products showing different trends. The short - term market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and inventory levels. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others are expected to show a weakening trend [1][2][5] Summary by Product Steel - The steel market is in a weak and volatile state. The apparent demand for thread steel has declined month - on - month, and the recovery lacks sustainability. The supply - demand of hot - rolled coils has stabilized. The iron - making water output has reached a high level, but the resumption of production will slow down significantly later. The manufacturing PMI has declined, and the real estate market is still weak. The market will be mainly in a weak and volatile state in the short term [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is slightly weaker. The global shipment has increased month - on - month, and the domestic arrival volume has rebounded. The port inventory has started to accumulate. Although the short - term demand is still high, the frequent news of crude steel production restrictions has dragged down the market from the expected level. It is expected to be volatile, with short - term price support and pressure from the decline of iron - making water output in the future [2] Coke - The coke price rebounded slightly at the end of the session due to position reduction. The second round of price increase was rejected, and the inventory is still at a high level. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - making water output has increased significantly. Attention should be paid to the evolution of steel exports [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rebounded slightly at the end of the session due to position reduction. The production of coking coal mines is gradually recovering, but the production has decreased slightly this week. The spot auction market has weakened, and the inventory pressure at the production end is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [5] Silicon Manganese - The price of silicon manganese has reached a new low this year. The port inventory of manganese ore has been increasing. The supply of silicon manganese has decreased, but the overall inventory has increased significantly, suppressing the price. It is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Silicon Iron - The price of the 2509 contract of silicon iron has reached a new low this year. The iron - making water output has increased, but the export demand and secondary demand are generally weak. The supply has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of eggs fluctuated and declined this week. The 06 contract closed at 2942 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 70 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The feed raw material prices are rising due to Sino - US tariff policies, which supports the egg cost. However, the old chicken culling has slowed down again after the previous egg price increase, and the current laying - hen inventory is at a high level. The newly - opened production of the previously stocked laying hens is gradually increasing, so the egg supply is relatively sufficient. Meanwhile, as the festival stocking is coming to an end, the purchasing power of downstream terminals has weakened, and the egg price also tends to stop rising and decline. Affected by the decline of spot prices, the futures market has also weakened, and market volatility has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The 06 contract of egg futures closed down with fluctuations, at 2942 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 70 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Feed raw material price increase supports cost, but supply is sufficient and downstream demand is weakening, causing the spot price to decline and the futures market to follow suit with increased volatility [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term wait - and - see [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The 06 contract of egg futures closed down with fluctuations. The position was 118,678 lots, a decrease of 50,406 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 2902, compared with - 1593 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Wednesday, the registered warehouse receipts of eggs were 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3208 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 103 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 06 contract futures price and the spot average price was + 266 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was 110 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a medium level in the same period [27]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of April 29, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.78 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 4.5 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: As of March 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 112.35, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51%. The national new - chick index was 138.68, a month - on - month increase of 20.46% [38]. - **Culling Situation**: As of March 31, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was 96.76, a month - on - month decrease of 18.30%. The national culling age of chickens was 510 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of April 29, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2305.29 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3800 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of April 25, 2025, the laying - hen breeding profit was 0.05 yuan per chicken, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.74 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Prices of Laying - hen Chicks and Culled Chickens**: As of April 25, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was 4.25 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 10.38 yuan per kilogram [56]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In March 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,903.32 tons, an increase of 1242.82 tons compared with 11,660.49 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 10.66%, and a month - on - month increase of 2188.58 tons compared with 10,714.73 tons in the previous month [62]. 3.4 Representative Enterprise - Information about Xiaoming Co., Ltd. is presented with a chart of its price - to - earnings ratio change, but no specific analysis is provided [64].

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3230 元/吨，较前一 日下跌 10 元/吨，05 合约基差 185（+5）。宏观层面，4 月 22 日，特 朗普表示将会"大幅降低"对中国的高额关税，不过国内强调目前双方 并未开展任何经贸谈判，另外，4 月 25 日政治局会议召开，没有强刺激 信号；产业层面，最近一期数据，螺纹钢表需下滑、产量持稳，去库速度 仍然较快，通常而言，五月中下旬钢材需求会季节性下滑，上半年旺季 窗口期已经不长，上周五市场开始交易钢厂限产，但是目前尚未有正式 文件发布，仍需观察。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷 电成本附近，仅仅高于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面， 政策端，预计中美关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模刺激政 策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需求季节性下滑， 市场预期偏弱，关注限产政策是否落地，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源： 同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周一铁矿盘面震荡运行，特朗普放言可能降低对华关税，国际贸易紧张 情绪有所缓和。铁水产量出现超预期增长，引发铁水见顶回落 ...

Group 1: Impact of Tariff Policies - The impact of US-China tariff policies on the company's operations is limited, as the export business to the US accounts for a small proportion and most products are on the exemption list [1] - The company has no procurement of raw materials or equipment from the US, and it maintains communication with customers regarding supply chain stability and tax optimization in response to tariff changes [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company experienced improved operational performance, benefiting from increased foreign exchange gains and a turnaround in derivatives from loss to profit compared to Q1 2024, leading to a significant rise in net profit [1] - The competitive landscape in the new energy sector is intense, with some pressure on performance due to the transition of production lines to fixed assets and depreciation [1] - The company anticipates a breakthrough in revenue from its new energy business in 2025 [2] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Business Development - The pharmaceutical business is progressing as planned, with expectations for growth in 2025, focusing on major clients, primarily European pharmaceutical companies [2] - The company is enhancing existing partnerships while simultaneously developing new clients and strengthening R&D capabilities [2] Group 4: New Energy Business Progress - The new energy business is advancing with ongoing customer communication, project R&D, and quality system development [2] - The company is entering the new energy sector with products like electrolytes, aiming for revenue breakthroughs in 2025 [2] Group 5: Overseas Factory Performance - The UK factory is expected to see improved operational performance in 2025, with a rise in capacity utilization and profitability achieved in Q1 2025 due to foreign exchange gains [3][4] - The Malaysian factory is still in the construction phase, with investment progress contingent on order situations [4]

国投安信期货：棉花操作上暂时观望 昨天美棉大幅下跌，美棉最新的周度签约数据表现一般，截至2025年4月27日当周，美国棉花种植率为 15%,前一周为11%,去年同期为14%,五年均值为14%。国产棉现货交投平淡，现货基差较为坚挺，纯棉 纱纺企散单出货，库存略升，价格本周稳中偏弱。国内内销数据表现尚可，外需面临的挑战较大，关税 实质影响仍未完全落地。中美仍未进行实质性的谈判，特朗普观点较为反复，继续关注后续情况，操作 上暂时观望。 机构 核心观点 光大期货 短期郑棉仍以区间震荡对待 国投安信期货 棉花操作上暂时观望 南华期货（603093） 棉价或维持偏弱小幅震荡 光大期货：短期郑棉仍以区间震荡对待 国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍有扰动，特朗普消息不断且变向较快，美元指数重心先升后降，美棉价 格承压下行，持续关注宏观层面变化。国内市场方面，郑棉期价整体仍维持震荡走势。展望未来，我们 认为短期郑棉下方有一定支撑，原因有以下几点：一是中美关税税率较此前再度恶化空间不大，二是新 棉种植期，国内棉花种植面积较此前预估或小幅下降，未来天气若有扰动则是利多，三是对未来国内宏 观政策的预期。综上，我们认为短期郑棉底部有一定支撑 ...

黑色产业日报 周一铁矿盘面震荡运行，特朗普放言可能降低对华关税，国际贸易紧张 情绪有所缓和。铁水产量出现超预期增长，引发铁水见顶回落预期，同 时叠加后续出口持续性担忧。供给方面，全球发运与上周基本持平，其 中澳洲发运有所回升，巴西发运下降。到疏港量均有回落，部分压港释 放，港口库存有所回升。需求方面，铁水产量大幅增长，整体进口矿日耗 有所增加。本周钢厂复产节奏加快，成材价格暂稳，钢厂生产积极性提 高。上周末出现粗钢限产传闻，但尚未见到具体政策文件出台，暂以不 实小作文看待。即便属实，五千万吨限产相较总量仍然较少，正反馈难 以形成，矿价仍是弱势。基本面铁矿属于供需双强阶段，但即将进入传 产业服务总部 黑色产业团队 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格冲高回落，杭州中天螺纹钢 3240 元/吨，较上周 五上涨 50 元/吨，05 合约基差 180（+15）。宏观层面，4 月 22 日， 特朗普表示将会"大幅降低"对中国的高额关税，不过国内强调目前双 方并未开展任何经贸谈判，另外，4 月 25 日政治局会议召开，没有强刺 激信号；产业层面，最近一期数据，螺纹钢表需下滑、产量持稳，去库速 度仍然较快，通常而言， ...