Report Summary 1. Market Data - **Commodities**: Gold closed at 834.22 with a weekly increase of 2.28%, silver at 10035.00 with 2.27% increase, and aluminum at 21120.00 with 2.05% increase. Some commodities like palm oil decreased by 2.41%, and polycrystalline silicon dropped by 5.51% [2]. - **Stocks**: A - shares such as CSI 500 rose by 3.38%, SSE 50 by 0.89%. Overseas stocks like Nikkei 225 increased by 4.07%, and Nasdaq Composite by 2.03% [2]. - **Bonds**: Yield of 10 - year Chinese Treasury bonds increased by 3.99bp, and 2 - year by 0.78bp [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: Euro - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.15%, while the US dollar index decreased by 0.12% [2]. 2. Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions, 4 are bullish, 0 bearish, and 4 neutral. Bullish factors include expected Fed rate cuts, potential new policies, large - scale reverse repurchase, and progress in Sino - US talks. Bearish factors are shrinking trading volume, possible lower - than - expected Fed rate cuts, weak domestic economic data, and a 1.4 - billion - share decrease in CSI 1000 ETF [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions, all 7 are neutral. Bullish factors are weak economic indicators, rising domestic rate - cut expectations due to Fed rate - cut expectations, and stable liquidity. Bearish factors are high stock market risk appetite and potential bond supply pressure in Q4, as well as bond fund redemptions [4]. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 bearish, and 5 neutral. Bullish factors are expected Fed rate cuts, increased global oil demand forecast, supply disruptions, and limited shale oil production growth. Bearish factors are the end of the gasoline consumption season, weak US employment and consumption, rising US rig count, and increasing US crude oil inventories [5]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Rapeseed Oil**: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 bearish, and 4 neutral. Bullish factors are limited Canadian菜籽 supply, expected late arrival of Australian菜籽, and tight market supply. Bearish factors are abundant global菜籽 supply, high domestic rapeseed oil inventory, weak consumption, and import restrictions [5]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 8 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 bearish, and 2 neutral. Bullish factors are expected Fed rate cuts, supply disruptions, strong demand, low domestic inventory, and positive market sentiment. Bearish factors are potential limited Fed rate - cut space, unproven peak - season demand, high - price resistance, and impact of low - cost imported copper [6]. Chemical Industry Sector - **Urea**: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 bearish, and 4 neutral. Bullish factors are increased procurement, production cuts, inventory reduction, and price support from exports. Bearish factors are rising enterprise inventory, increased production capacity utilization, slow - recovering industrial demand, and the end of agricultural demand [6]. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 bearish, and 5 neutral. Bullish factors are weak US employment data, central bank gold purchases, concerns about Fed independence, and a weak US dollar. Bearish factors are high market risk appetite and potential post - rate - cut pullbacks [7]. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions, 4 are bullish, 0 bearish, and 4 neutral. Bullish factors are potential new policies, high market risk appetite, coal - production control, and increased iron - water and coking production. Bearish factors are high Mongolian coal imports, resumed coal production, approaching end of demand peak, and reduced downstream purchasing [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected focus on a social media application in the ongoing tensions between China and the United States, rather than traditional economic tools like tariffs, chips, or rare earth materials [1] Group 1 - The confrontation between China and the United States has shifted from economic measures to a specific social media platform, indicating a significant change in strategy [1] - The metaphor of two top martial artists deciding the fate of a breakfast dumpling shop illustrates the absurdity and unexpected nature of the current geopolitical landscape [1]

Group 1 - The core message indicates that recent developments in US-China negotiations have led to a significant rise in US stock markets, while A-shares experienced volatility, with a notable rebound in the afternoon [1][3]. - The unexpected progress in negotiations, particularly regarding TikTok, has contributed to market optimism, despite initial tensions [3][5]. - The New York Fed manufacturing index dropped sharply from 11.9 to -8.7, raising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][5]. Group 2 - The market is currently focused on the extent of potential interest rate cuts rather than whether cuts will occur, with expectations leaning towards a total reduction of 75 basis points this year [5][9]. - There are indications that the central bank may intervene in the bond market, suggesting preparations for liquidity challenges, reinforcing the likelihood of interest rate cuts [5][12]. - Institutional funds are showing signs of recovery, which is a positive signal for the market, despite short-term fluctuations [12][16]. Group 3 - The market is characterized by significant style shifts, with a focus on technology stocks, although only 160 out of 314 computing concept stocks have outperformed the index in the past two months [14][16]. - The concept of "washing" or creating volatility is discussed, indicating that institutions may be manipulating stock prices to shake off weaker hands while maintaining active inventory [16][12]. - The presence of active institutional funds is crucial for sustaining individual stock performance, and their movements should be closely monitored for investment decisions [9][12].

Group 1 - The core issue of the recent US-China negotiations is the future of the short video platform TikTok, with both sides reaching preliminary consensus on several major disagreements [3] - The two main sticking points for TikTok are ownership structure, where the US seeks control while China refuses to relinquish dominance, and the core algorithm, which China views as vital and is hesitant to export or transfer [3] Group 2 - The domestic market appears to be supported by a "protective cushion," quickly rebounding after initial declines, influenced by the positive developments in US-China talks [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The heavy rainfall in Malaysia may affect the palm oil picking progress in the short term [1] - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The USDA report maintains the expectation of a soybean bumper harvest, and the overall soybean supply remains in a loose pattern. The China-US negotiation is ongoing, which may have a further impact on future market prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of heavy rainfall in palm oil producing areas [3] Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,422.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +126 yuan and a change rate of +1.36% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,376.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +54.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.65% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,900.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +43.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.44% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,300.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +40.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.43%. The spot basis was P01 + -122.00, with a month-on-month change of -86.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,520.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +40.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +0.47%. The spot basis was Y01 + 144.00, with a month-on-month change of -14.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,110.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +50.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.50%. The spot basis was OI01 + 210.00, with a month-on-month change of +7.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - As of September 15, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.70444 million tons, an increase of 68,700 tons compared to the same period last week - The Sabah state government of Malaysia announced the cancellation of the state-level Malaysia Day celebration originally scheduled for Tuesday (16th) at the Independence Square in Kota Kinabalu due to heavy rain causing floods in at least seven counties - As of September 12, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2512 million tons, a decrease of 10 tons compared to last week, with a decline rate of 0.01% - The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 641,500 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons compared to last week, with an increase rate of 3.58%; an increase of 128,000 tons compared to 513,500 tons last year, with an increase rate of 24.92% - According to the data of shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of palm oil in Malaysia from September 1 - 15 was 742,648 tons, a 2.6% increase compared to the export volume of 724,191 tons in the same period last month [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend, with high-growth sectors being the preferred choice for investment [1][2] - Policy support is expected to strengthen with the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October, particularly in hard technology and new productivity sectors [1][2] - Recent increases in overseas AI industry capital expenditure are positively influencing market sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - A total of 12 out of the 15 leading companies with the highest gains since June are linked to overseas expansion, particularly in the AI supply chain and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][3] - The market consensus has been strong since August, but the intensity of sector rotation has decreased to a new low since April of the previous year [2][3] - The focus should be on high-growth sectors such as solid-state batteries, energy storage, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while also considering new consumption trends [1][2] Group 3 - The current market sentiment is characterized by a high degree of volatility, with a potential for a significant upward trend if new catalysts emerge [3][4] - The upcoming October meeting is anticipated to clarify the direction of the "14th Five-Year Plan," likely emphasizing technological innovation and new productivity [3][4] - The market is expected to see a shift towards cyclical trades as the economy transitions from service to manufacturing sectors [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term sentiment in the soybean market is cautious. With the market sentiment about to turn, there is an expectation of repairing the price difference between the domestic and foreign soybean markets. The short - term price of soybean meal futures has turned to a volatile state. The price of palm oil futures has stopped falling and rebounded as international oil prices have stabilized, and the positive industrial chain expectations also support the price. [6][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Opinions**: The short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly". The core logic is that the market is waiting for the progress of Sino - US negotiations, which will determine the market's risk pricing for the long - term. The short - term sentiment in the soybean market is cautious, and there is an expectation of repairing the price difference between the domestic and foreign soybean markets. Also, factors such as import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand affect it. [6][8] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Opinions**: The short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly". The core logic is that the spill - over effect of recent international oil price fluctuations on the oil market continues to appear. As international oil prices have stabilized, the price of palm oil futures, the most energy - related oil variety, has stopped falling and rebounded, and the positive industrial chain expectations also support it. Also, factors such as biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand affect it. [7][8][9] Soybean Oil (2601) - **Time - period Opinions**: The short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly". The core logic includes factors such as US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory. [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - **Grains and Oilseeds**: Domestic two - meal decline space is limited, with cost support. In the fourth quarter, global soybean supply is not loose. It's advisable to wait for the stabilization and go long at low prices in the 3000 - 3050 range. The bean - rapeseed price difference may widen again [2]. - **Pigs**: Pig spot prices are stable with small fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see. If the weight has room to decrease, the far - end has support. Pay attention to the support of the 01 contract around 13800 [3]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is weak, and the futures price rebounds. In the medium term, the new - season corn cost decreases, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is obvious [6]. - **Oils**: Palm oil maintains a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. For soybean oil, the industrial consumption in the US is uncertain, and the domestic basis quotation will be boosted after the inventory decreases [9]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar is expected to consolidate in the 15 - 17 cents/pound range. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be in a weak oscillation [11]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate in a range, and the far - end is under pressure after the new cotton is listed [12]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices maintain a bearish trend due to sufficient supply and slow market digestion [14]. 3. Summary by Variety Grains and Oilseeds - **Prices**: For soybeans, the spot price in Harbin is 3980 yuan/ton, and the futures price of the main contract is 3927 yuan/ton. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu is 2500 yuan/ton, and the futures price of RM2601 is 2483 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 225, and the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 75. The spot bean - rapeseed meal spread is 540 [2]. - **Profits**: The crushing profit of Brazilian October shipment is 70, with a 79.5% increase [2]. Pigs - **Futures**: The price of the main contract of live pigs 2511 is 13590 yuan/ton, and the price of 2601 is 13940 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is - 190, with a 42.42% increase [3]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan is 13750 yuan/ton [3]. - **Other Indicators**: The sample - point slaughter volume per day is 142240 heads, with a 0.32% increase [3]. Corn - **Futures**: The price of corn 2511 is 2185 yuan/ton, and the price of corn starch 2511 is 2493 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spreads**: The 11 - 3 spread of corn is - 15, and the 11 - 3 spread of corn starch is - 46 [6]. - **Profits**: The import profit is 452 yuan/ton, with a 2.33% increase [6]. Oils - **Prices**: The spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8640 yuan/ton, and the futures price of Y2601 is 8464 yuan/ton [9]. - **Spreads**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean oil is 74, and the spot bean - palm spread is - 830 [9]. - **Costs and Profits**: The import cost of palm oil in Guangzhou Port in January is 9758.7 yuan/ton, and the import profit is - 333 yuan/ton [9]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5602 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE raw sugar is 16.50 cents/pound [11]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning is 5910 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Indicators**: The national sugar production cumulative value is 1116.21 million tons, and the sales cumulative value is 955.00 million tons [11]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2509 is 13690 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE US cotton is 67.28 cents/pound [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 15240 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industry Indicators**: The commercial inventory is 182.02 million tons, and the industrial inventory is 92.42 million tons [12]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the egg 09 contract is 2843 yuan/500KG, and the price of the 10 contract is 2930 yuan/500KG [14]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price is 3.26 yuan/jin [14]. - **Industry Indicators**: The egg - chick price is 3.20 yuan/feather, and the breeding profit is - 17.89 yuan/feather [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the price trends and core logics of different agricultural commodity futures, including short - term, medium - term, and intraday views [5][6][7]. - For different futures varieties, the core logics are affected by multiple factors such as international policies, supply and demand, and inventory [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **View** - Intraday view: Oscillating weakly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic** - Optimistic signals from China - US negotiations have led to a slight decline in the high premium of Brazilian soybeans. But before the substantial improvement of US soybean exports, the high - premium pattern of Brazilian soybeans is hard to change, providing cost support for domestic soybean meal. The far - month contracts still have dual support of supply and cost, and the short - term futures price fluctuates at a high level [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **View** - Intraday view: Oscillating strongly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic** - The positive expectations of the Southeast Asian palm oil industry chain support the palm oil futures price. Affected by emotional fluctuations, the futures price fluctuates at a high level with strong support below. After continuous short - term rises, short - term capital closing positions cause the futures price to fluctuate at a high level, but the overall strong trend remains [7]. 3.3. Other Contracts - **Soybean Meal 2601**: Short - term and medium - term oscillating, intraday and reference view oscillating weakly, affected by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6]. - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Short - term strong, medium - term oscillating, intraday and reference view oscillating strongly, influenced by US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. - **Palm 2601**: Short - term and intraday strong, medium - term oscillating, reference view oscillating strongly, affected by biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

盘面上看，医药、钢铁、保险、煤炭、有色等板块走低；半导体板块强势拉升，券商、地产、酿酒等板 块上扬，芯片、消费电子概念等活跃。 7日早盘，沪指盘中震荡上扬，再创年内新高；创业板指弱势下探，场内超2900股飘绿。 中银基金表示，短期市场在流动性的支撑下有望维持高位震荡，后续伴随美联储重启降息以及中美谈判 进展，市场在经历震荡后有望进一步上涨：盈利方面，预计A股企业盈利延续筑底走势，下半年增速边 际小幅回升，中性假设下，2025年全A非金融净利润增速预计在1.8%左右。流动性方面，预计美联储有 望于9月重启降息，国内货币政策宽松窗口有望再度开启，宏观流动性维持充裕。在国内广谱利率持续 下行的背景下，居民与非银机构对权益资产的配置需求正逐步提升，中长期资金有望进一步入市，预计 微观资金面将保持充裕。行业配置上，相对看好成长与金融板块的表现。 截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.12%报3638.4点，深证成指跌0.13%，创业板指跌0.52%，科创50指数涨 0.66%，沪深北三市合计成交12062亿元。 ...