| | | | Million 国特期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月29日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 天然橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，国产棉现货交投一般、主流基差坚挺；纯棉纱市场成交走谈,纺企库存出现累积但仍不高,成品库存有所 增加，下游压价情况增多，淡季的压力有所增加。国内棉花进口延续偏低的情况，2025年4月进口6万吨，同比降28万吨，环比 降1.4万吨；2024/25年度9-4月累计进口86.6万吨，同比降65%。国内3 ...

市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13330元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14453元/吨，较前一日变动-32元/吨，现货基差CF09+1123，较前一日变动-32；3128B棉全国均价14572元/吨， 较前一日变动-23元/吨，现货基差CF09+1242，较前一日变动-23。 农产品日报 | 2025-05-29 原糖持续下跌，郑糖跟随走弱 棉花观点 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部统计，至5月25日全美棉花播种进度52%，较去年同期落后5个百分点，较近五年平均 水平落后4个百分点。其中得州播种进度47%，较去年同期落后1个百分点，较近五年平均进度落后1个百分点，均 处于近年较慢水平。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价横盘整理。宏观方面，中美谈判取得实质性进展，市场情绪明显转好。不过目前出口美国的纺织品 服装实际关税仍高达45%-50%，且24%关税延期90天后关税政策不确定性将再次提升，需持续关注后期宏观动向。 国际方面，USDA下调25/26年度全球棉花产量，上调消费量，期末库存同比持平。不过当前不确定因素较多，后 续平衡表还需要根据各主产国天 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年05月27日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 棉花 | ななな | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 20号胶 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉有所回落，国产棉现货交投一般、主流基差坚挺；纯棉纱市场成交走谈，纺企库存出现累积但仍不高。国内棉花进口 延续偏低的情况, 2025年4月进口6万吨,同比降28万吨,环比降1.4万吨;2025年1-4月累计进口40万吨,同比降71%;2024/25 年度9-4月累计进口86.6万吨，同比降65%。目前看对于下游的订单好 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ (one star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Logs: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (white stars, indicating a balanced short - term trend and poor operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] Core Views - The prices of various soft commodities show different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, production, import and export, and consumption. Most commodities are recommended to wait and see in the short term, and some can try light - position operations after a callback [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined today, with weak downstream demand being the main limiting factor. Domestic cotton imports remained low in April 2025. The recent rise in Zhengzhou cotton was driven by the positive news of China - US negotiations, but the impact on downstream orders was limited. Cotton inventory decreased well from March to April, and if the negotiations continue to improve, there may be a tight - end - of - season inventory situation. It is recommended to wait and see or try the bullish spread strategy of options [2] Sugar - US sugar fluctuated last week. In May, the rainfall in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased, which was conducive to sugarcane harvesting. Most international consulting companies expected the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil to remain high in the 25/26 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. The import profit of sugar increased due to the continuous decline of US sugar, and the import volume was expected to increase. The market focused on consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales were good, and the import volume decreased in the first quarter, but the downward trend of US sugar limited the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price was weak. The spot price remained stable. The market shipment in Shandong was slow, and the demand for apples decreased due to the rising temperature and the listing of seasonal fruits. The market focused on the new - season production estimate. There were differences in the production estimate due to the impact of high - temperature and windy weather in the western producing areas. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU slightly rose, NR fluctuated, and BR continued to decline. The supply of natural rubber entered the increasing period, and the domestic butadiene rubber device operation rate decreased. The domestic tire operation rate decreased, and the inventory of tire finished products increased. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased, and the social inventory of butadiene rubber increased. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - The pulp price declined today. The port inventory decreased slightly, but it was still high year - on - year. The demand for pulp was weak, and the recent rise was mainly driven by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long lightly after a callback [7] Logs - The futures price was weak, and the spot price remained stable. The supply side saw an increase in the arrival volume in China last week. The demand entered the off - season, and the port inventory decreased, but the radiation pine continued to accumulate inventory. The supply of New Zealand logs was expected to remain low, but the domestic demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

宏观 海外风险偏好回落影响市场表现 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 26 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（5 月第 4 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场缩量下跌。市场方面，中美谈判乐观预期出 尽，叠加海外风险偏好回落，市场情绪偏弱，整体缩量。政 策方面，1 年期 LPR 下调 10bp 至 3%，5 年期以上 LPR 下调 10bp 至 3.5%，六大行及部分股份行下调人民币存款利率，幅度在 5-25bp 间。LPR 和存款利率同步下调，一方面降低居民企业融 资成本，另一方面降低银行放贷成本抬升放贷意愿，有助于二 季度实体 ...

Market Performance - The market experienced a decline with a weekly average trading volume of 1,173.3 billion CNY, down by 92.9 billion CNY from the previous week[9] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.88%[9] - The overall market sentiment weakened due to the exhaustion of optimistic expectations from China-US negotiations and a decline in overseas risk appetite[3] Monetary Policy - The 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was lowered by 10 basis points to 3%, and the 5-year LPR was also reduced by 10 basis points to 3.5%[3] - Major banks adjusted deposit rates downwards by 5-25 basis points, which is expected to lower financing costs for residents and enterprises[3] - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to finalize this year's construction project list by the end of June, potentially boosting construction activity in Q2[3] Economic Indicators - April economic data showed overall weakness, with ongoing downward pressure on housing prices, although export expectations have improved[3] - The average funding price increased slightly compared to the previous week, indicating a marginal tightening of liquidity[9] - The central bank's net injection in the open market was 1.2 trillion CNY, including a 375 billion CNY increase in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations[9] International Market Trends - US stock markets declined, with the Dow Jones down 2.47%, S&P 500 down 2.61%, and Nasdaq down 2.47%[9] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.51%, while the 2-year yield fell by 1.4 basis points to 3.98%[9] - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA1, citing increased government debt and potential GDP growth slowdown due to tariff adjustments[3] Risk Factors - Risks include weaker-than-expected economic fundamentals and slower progress in China-US negotiations[3]

今天我就带你一步步拆解： 川普到底在打什么算盘？全球市场为何震荡？对中国投资者又有哪些实用启示？ 第一件，川普向欧盟发 出关税威胁。 在川普的眼里，美国就是被欧洲揩了油。 他认为，美国军事上协防欧洲、 美国在欧洲多个国家驻军，总兵力接近9万人，大大节省了欧洲的军费 开支。贸易上还被占便宜， 现在欧盟一年对美贸易逆差超过2.5亿美元，简直无法接受，必须立即改 变。 他说，建议从6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税，而如果产品在美国制造或生产，则无须缴纳 关税。 这两天，川普连放两颗"重磅炸弹"： 一是威胁对欧盟商品加征50%关税，二是要对"没在美国生产的手 机"征税25%，苹果、三星首当其冲。 消息一出，欧洲股市跳水，美元大跌，美债收益率飙升，苹果股价单日重挫3%。资本市场的情绪，一 下子就被点燃了。 但这背后，不只是川普的"嘴炮"或竞选造势，而是美欧博弈、中美谈判、美债压力的多重共振。 话音刚落，欧洲股市和欧元对美汇率就出现了大跳水。 为什么川普突然威胁欧盟呢？ 早在5月中旬，美欧已就数字贸易、投资准入、关税结构等领域交换过谈判草案，但欧盟近期态度趋 硬，拒绝接受美式"10%底线协议"。 有欧盟官员表示："10% ...

Report Overview - The report is a May 23, 2025, morning report on agricultural products by Wukuang Futures, covering soybeans/meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1][3] Soybeans/Meal Core Information - Thursday saw US soybeans oscillate and close slightly higher. The new US soybean balance sheet may trend tighter under scenarios of eased trade - wars and stable production. Argentina's local production damage and excessive rainfall in US soybean - growing areas this week may support prices, but favorable rainfall in sown areas limits gains. US soybean - growing areas may face more rainfall in the central part in the next two weeks, affecting sowing. Brazilian farmers have sold over 60% of their soybeans, and the USDA expects only small increases in Brazil and Argentina's new - crop production, while US soybean production may decline slightly by 700,000 tons [3] - According to MYSTEEL, the estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 9.1975 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10.5 million tons respectively. The oil mill operating rate was 63.87% yesterday, with 340,900 tons in transactions [3] Trading Strategy - Near - term, the domestic soybean supply is relatively large, but the valuation is low. US soybeans and soybean meal are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Further upward breakthrough of US soybeans requires additional stimuli such as biodiesel policies and production changes. The cost range of far - month soybean meal like 09 is currently 2850 - 3000 yuan/ton [3][5] Oils and Fats Core Information - From May 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 60.17%, with a 22.31% increase in the first 10 days, 8.5% in the first 15 days, and 3.72% in the first 20 days. The export volume from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month, but is expected to increase by 6.63% in the first 15 days and 1.55% - 5.25% in the first 20 days. As of the week of May 18, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 37.38% to 178,600 tons [7] - Malaysia's palm oil stocks increased significantly in April. However, palm oil has some support due to low stocks in Indonesia, India, and China. If the palm oil production continues to recover rapidly in the medium term, oil prices will face pressure. US biodiesel policies may fall short of expectations [8][10] Trading Strategy - Oils are expected to oscillate weakly. Negative factors include the downward - trending crude oil center, obvious palm oil production recovery, and potentially under - expected US biodiesel policies. Positive factors are the low stocks of palm oil in Indonesia and India and rapeseed in Canada, which provide some support to origin quotes [11] Sugar Core Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices rose and then fell. The closing price of the September contract was 5885 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions also declined slightly. As of the week of May 21, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 79 from 86 the previous week, and the waiting sugar volume decreased to 3.1474 million tons from 3.5195 million tons [13] Trading Strategy - The international sugar market's tightest supply phase may have passed. In the domestic market, although the current production and sales are good, cheaper basis - priced sugar enters the market as the futures price drops. With the opening of the import profit window, future import supplies will increase, and sugar prices are likely to weaken [14] Cotton Core Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of the September contract was 13430 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton increased by 40 yuan/ton. Brazil's cotton exports in the first three weeks of May were 101,600 tons, with an average daily export volume 15.44% lower than in May last year. As of May 18, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 40%, up from 28% the previous week [16] Trading Strategy - Macroscopically, Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, boosting market confidence. Fundamentally, although the peak season has passed, the downstream operating rate increased slightly last week. The import window is basically closed, accelerating inventory depletion, and the 9 - 1 contract spread shows a positive arbitrage. Short - term cotton prices are expected to oscillate strongly and may fill the upper gap [17] Eggs Core Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or declined. The average price in main production areas dropped 0.04 yuan to 3.04 yuan/jin. Newly - laid eggs are increasing, supply is relatively abundant, and downstream procurement is cautious, with some inventory levels remaining high [18] Trading Strategy - With continuous increases in supply, small - sized eggs are significantly discounted compared to large - sized eggs. Market confidence is poor, inventory accumulates repeatedly, and spot prices are under pressure. Maintain the strategy of short - selling near - month contracts like 06 and 07 on rebounds and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts like 09 when positions are large [19] Pigs Core Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly declined. The average price in Henan dropped 0.24 yuan to 14.35 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it dropped 0.13 yuan to 14.14 yuan/kg. Farms have high slaughter enthusiasm, but downstream follow - up is weak [20] Trading Strategy - Spot prices fluctuate within a narrow range and show signs of weakening. Although the weight is accumulating, considering low frozen - product and second - fattening pen occupancy, significant short - term declines are unlikely. Near - month contracts should focus on the basis regression method, while the medium - term strategy for far - month contracts is to short - sell on rebounds, but pay attention to the impact of spot prices and basis [21]

农产品日报 | 2025-05-21 白糖延续震荡，纸浆底部修复 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13395元/吨，较前一日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.04%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14465元/吨，较前一日变动-9元/吨，现货基差CF09+1070，较前一日变动-14；3128B棉全国均价14550元/吨， 较前一日变动-16元/吨，现货基差CF09+1155，较前一日变动-21。 近期市场资讯，美棉种植进度同比偏慢，德州种植进度同比亦滞后。截止5月18日，美棉15个棉花主要种植州棉花 种植率为40%，较去年同期慢2%；近五年同期平均水平在43%，较近五年同期平均水平慢3个百分点。 市场分析 策略 中性。短期由于中美谈判超预期，市场情绪好转支撑棉价震荡偏强。但国内进入消费淡季，新年度丰产预期仍存， 当前保留关税仍处于较高水平，对出口贸易的实际利好程度或有限，棉价反弹空间或受到限制。 风险 昨日郑棉期价窄幅震荡。宏观方面，中美谈判取得实质性进展，降低关税的幅度超出市场预期，中美经贸关系快 速缓和，市场情绪明显转好。不过美国对中国商品加征关税仍累计30%，再加上2018 ...

Group 1 - The 5-year local government bond ETF (159972) has seen a recent increase of 7 basis points, with an average daily trading volume of 1.369 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 29.84% over the past week [1] - The fund's performance shows a net value growth rate of 4.23% over the past year, 12.36% over the past three years, and 24.23% since its inception [1] - This ETF is the first of its kind in the market, closely tracking the China Securities 5-year local government bond index, consisting of non-directionally issued local government bonds with remaining maturities between 4 and 5.25 years [1] Group 2 - Recent key information includes a significant easing of US-China tariff rates and stronger-than-expected export data for April, although PPI year-on-year and new credit data showed weakness, leading to a defensive phase in the bond market with rising yields [1] - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that the easing signals from US-China negotiations have led the market to adjust its previously pessimistic pricing for the second quarter, with long-term rates declining first [1] - The current overnight funding rates have returned close to policy rates, indicating a lack of downward momentum without triggering factors, and the market is awaiting catalysts for the transmission chain from funding rates to short-term and then long-term rates [2]