Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton decreased by 0.25% to 67.5 cents per pound on Wednesday, and the CF509 dropped by 1.89% to 13,755 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 37,728 lots to 375,900 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,343 yuan per ton, down 88 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,470 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan. Internationally, the market focus is on the macro - level. After the Fed's July FOMC meeting, the probability of a September rate cut dropped below 50%, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and U.S. cotton prices were under pressure. Domestically, the 09 contract is reducing positions and declining, and the 9 - 1 spread is narrowing. Considering the low commercial cotton inventory and the macro - sentiment, there may not be much downside for the 09 contract. For the 01 contract, pay attention to the Sino - U.S. negotiation results, and the short - term fundamental drivers are limited. The overall view is oscillating and slightly bearish [1]. - For sugar, the spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups were stable, and some processing sugar mills lowered their prices by 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar market is centered around Brazil's crushing progress without a clear direction. The domestic futures market is in the process of position transfer. The September contract is under pressure and has returned to around 5,800 points. The January contract has slightly stronger support due to the expected delayed start of the crushing season. The view is oscillating, and there is still a small upward space for the 9 - 1 spread [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 150 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,715 yuan, up 60 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,343 yuan per ton, down 88 yuan, and the national price was 15,470 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 130 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main contract basis was 271 yuan, up 63 yuan. The Nanning spot price was 6,050 yuan per ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou price was 6,075 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - On July 30, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,055, down 101 from the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,343 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,512 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,468 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,610 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On July 30, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.3, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.6, up 0.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.8, unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.5, up 0.1 [3]. - On July 30, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were 6,050 yuan per ton and 6,075 yuan per ton respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 19,520, down 226 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts including those for cotton (e.g., main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, China Cotton Price Index) and sugar (e.g., main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts) [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17].

Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides operation suggestions for various futures contracts based on different factors such as market trends, policy expectations, and supply - demand relationships [2]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small number of short positions in MO put options with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, reducing the position and maintaining a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Affected by the strong stock market and incremental policy expectations, treasury bond futures have declined, releasing some policy over - expectation risks in advance. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the Politburo meeting communique [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The short - term international gold price has formed support at the 60 - day moving average (around 760 yuan for Shanghai gold). It is possible to buy on dips during the stage. Silver is affected by commodity market sentiment, and its price fluctuates above 38 US dollars (9100 yuan), and it is advisable to buy on dips [2]. Commodity Futures Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract is expected to be weakly volatile. It is possible to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract on rallies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Affected by production cut expectations, steel prices have strengthened. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The exchange's position limit intervention has caused significant fluctuations in futures prices, and spot prices have increased in auctions. Mongolian coal is temporarily stable. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented. Coking profits are meager, and there are still expectations for further price increases. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is fluctuating narrowly, waiting for macro - level drivers. The main reference range is 78,000 - 80,000 [2]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts have decreased again, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. The main reference range is 3100 - 3500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices have declined slightly, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The main reference range is 20,200 - 21,000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased market concerns about marginal supply contraction, and oil prices have risen. The WTI resistance level is given above. Options can be used to capture volatility opportunities [2][3]. - **Urea**: Export difficulties and high inventories suppress the rebound space. The short - term market is mainly in a range - bound state. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand expectations are tight, but the downstream industry chain still drags down PX trends. Pay attention to the pressure around 7000 and be cautiously bearish. Expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the loose supply - demand situation suppresses the price of soybean meal. The price is weakly volatile [2]. - **Pig Futures**: The spot market remains sluggish, and the previous policy benefits have been digested. It is recommended to be cautious and short the 09 contract [2]. - **Corn**: The market is mixed with both long and short factors, and the futures price is in a range - bound state [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is expected to be volatile. Internationally, the focus is on the Sino - US negotiation results and the Fed's July interest - rate meeting and September interest - rate cut expectations. Domestically, the 09 contract of cotton is unlikely to decline significantly due to tight spot inventory, while the 01 contract is mainly driven by the macro - level tone after the end - of - month important meeting [2]. - The sugar market is also expected to be volatile. The Brazilian new crushing data is about to be released, and the domestic spot market is worried about imports. The 9 - 1 reverse spread of sugar futures is effective, and the future upside of the futures price is limited under the pressure of hedging [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton dropped 1%, closing at 67.66 cents per pound. CF509 decreased 1.87% to 13,925 yuan per ton, with the main - contract positions decreasing by 55,334 hands to 413,700 hands. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,431 yuan per ton, down 42 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,580 yuan per ton, down 29 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: Analysts expect the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July to be 48.3 million tons, a 11.3% year - on - year increase; sugar production to be 3.3 million tons, a 12.5% increase; and ethanol production to be 2.19 billion liters, a 2.3% increase. The spot quotes of sugar in different regions have different trends, and the domestic futures price rebounds slightly following the raw sugar [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 100 yuan, a decrease of 110 yuan; the main - contract basis was 1,655 yuan, an increase of 121 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,431 yuan per ton, down 42 yuan, and the national price was 15,580 yuan per ton, down 29 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 140 yuan, a decrease of 24 yuan; the main - contract basis was 208 yuan, a decrease of 22 yuan. The spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were 6,050 yuan per ton and 6,075 yuan per ton respectively, both unchanged [3]. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 29, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,156, a decrease of 70 from the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions varied. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.3, down 0.1 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.5, down 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.8, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.4, unchanged [4]. - **Sugar**: On July 29, the spot prices of sugar in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 19,746, a decrease of 404 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff - quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][9][11][13][15][16][18] Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry and has won many awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass and has also won multiple honors [21]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy and has won relevant titles [22].

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the Chinese economy and its macroeconomic policies, particularly regarding supply-side reforms and the concept of "anti-involution" [1][2][4][5][6][19][21] Core Points and Arguments 1. **Supply-Side Reform and Anti-Involution**: The discussion centers around the ongoing supply-side reforms in China, particularly the government's initiative to combat "involution" and promote structural adjustments in various industries [1][5][19][21] 2. **Market Sentiment and Liquidity**: Recent discussions with private and public investors indicate a warming sentiment in the stock market, with some investors perceiving signs of a bull market, although the fundamental economic situation remains challenging [4][6][19] 3. **Policy Expectations**: The expectation for the second half of the year is that policies will focus on structural adjustments and gradual support, with a recognition that initial measures may only address surface issues rather than deeper structural problems [5][21] 4. **Economic Data Trends**: There is an anticipation of economic activity peaking in the first half of the year, followed by a potential decline in the latter half, influenced by previous policy measures and external factors [5][21] 5. **Impact of U.S.-China Relations**: Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China are expected to continue without significant breakthroughs, with tariffs likely remaining at current levels for an extended period [12][13][15][18] 6. **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: The real estate sector is under scrutiny, with expectations for policies to support it, but challenges remain due to mismatches in supply and demand across different cities [25][26] 7. **Social Security and Welfare Reforms**: There are indications of gradual reforms in the social security system, including potential nationwide birth subsidies and free preschool education, aimed at enhancing consumer spending and social welfare [27][28][29] 8. **Inflation and Economic Growth**: The discussion highlights the potential for inflationary pressures in certain sectors, but overall demand remains weak, complicating the path to sustainable economic growth [35][36] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context**: The current reform efforts are compared to previous supply-side reforms from 2015 to 2018, with an emphasis on the need for a more profound structural change rather than just addressing superficial issues [22][24][31] 2. **Market Reactions**: There is a caution against overly optimistic market expectations, particularly regarding the speed and effectiveness of policy implementations [45][56] 3. **Investment Opportunities**: The call suggests that while the immediate outlook may be cautious, there are potential long-term investment opportunities arising from structural changes in various industries, particularly those that have previously undergone supply-side reforms [40][44][55]

Core Viewpoint - The total net asset value of public funds in China reached a historical high of 34.39 trillion yuan as of June 30, 2025, with significant contributions from bond funds and a mixed performance in equity funds [1][3][4]. Fund Size Growth - As of June 30, 2025, there are 164 public fund management institutions in China, managing a total net asset value of 34.39 trillion yuan, marking a growth of 651.9 billion yuan from the end of May [3][4]. - The public bond fund size increased by 507.8 billion yuan in June, reaching 7.28 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date growth trend observed over four consecutive months [6][5]. Bond Fund Performance - Bond funds were the main contributors to the overall growth, with a monthly increase exceeding 500 billion yuan in June [5]. - The bond market is expected to remain bullish in the second half of the year, supported by favorable fundamentals and liquidity conditions, although there are concerns regarding high leverage and duration risks in a low volatility environment [8][7]. Equity Fund Performance - The A-share market showed positive performance in June, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.9%, leading to an increase in the size of equity funds [9]. - Stock funds and mixed funds saw increases of 148.3 billion yuan and 121.3 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 3.24% and 3.4% [10]. New Fund Issuance - In June, 110 new equity funds were established, raising a total of 51.6 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 40% of the total new fund issuance [11]. - The outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic, driven by sectors such as AI, military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, alongside supportive domestic policies [11]. QDII Fund Growth - QDII funds experienced a growth of approximately 4.51%, reaching a total size of 683.7 billion yuan by the end of June, benefiting from strong inflows and favorable market conditions [12][13].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on meal products dated July 9, 2025, focusing on the market conditions of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [2][4] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2997, 2704, and 2947 respectively, with changes of +8, -1, and +12. The spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao shows a downward trend [4] - For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2313, 2306, and 2586 respectively, with changes of +3, -6, and +10. The spot basis in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi shows a stable or slightly downward trend [4] Monthly Spread - The 59, 91, and 15 spreads of soybean meal are -243, -50, and 293 respectively, with changes of -13, +4, and +9. The 59, 91, and 15 spreads of rapeseed meal are -280, 273, and 7 respectively, with changes of -16, +7, and +9 [4] Cross - Variety Futures Spread - The soybean - rapeseed 01 spread is 684, and the soybean - rapeseed 09 spread is 361. The oil - meal ratio 01 is 2.641 [4] Spot Spread - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 640, with an increase of 9. The spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal is 7, with an increase of 3. The spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal is 587, with an increase of 2 [4] Market Performance - The US soybean market continued to decline slightly. The domestic soybean meal market rebounded, and the rapeseed meal market also followed a slight rebound. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Soybean - The new US soybean balance sheet has improved, mainly due to the boost of biodiesel policies on crushing. As of the week ending July 6, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 66%. As of the week ending July 3, the export inspection volume of old US soybeans was 389,400 tons. The soybean crushing data in May was good, with a NOPA - caliber crushing volume of 192.829 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 1.37%, and the crushing profit rebounded [5] South American Soybean - Brazilian farmers' selling progress has been slow, and the recent selling progress has further slowed down, resulting in price pressure. Brazilian soybean crushing volume has decreased, and the crushing profit is relatively low. Argentina's domestic crushing volume may improve, but soybean exports may increase [5] Domestic Market - The domestic spot market is relatively loose. As of July 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 2.3322 million tons, the operating rate is 65.56%, the soybean inventory is 6.364 million tons, a decrease of 4.43% from the previous week, and an increase of 11.28% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory is 822,400 tons, an increase of 18.91% from the previous week, and a decrease of 24.04% year - on - year [7] - The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has weakened. As of the week ending July 4, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills is 47,000 tons, the operating rate this week is 12.53%, the rapeseed inventory is 162,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 4,600 tons, a decrease of 6,400 tons from the previous week [7] Group 4: Macroeconomic Analysis - The China - US negotiations in London have been completed, but there is no clear information. The market is still worried about supply uncertainties. Although the overall international trade situation has many uncertainties, the macro - level disturbances are decreasing. China's long - term demand for US soybeans is still high, so the price is not likely to drop significantly in the short term [8] Group 5: Logic Analysis Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal market shows some support and is slightly stronger than the international market. The US soybean market is expected to be weak, but the decline in the domestic market is expected to be limited. The monthly spread of the domestic soybean meal market may be under some pressure, but the space for a sharp decline is limited [9] Rapeseed Meal - The change in the rapeseed meal market is relatively limited, mainly affected by the soybean meal market. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. The monthly spread of the rapeseed meal market is at a high level and may face some pressure [9] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, a low - position long - order strategy is recommended - For arbitrage, an expansion strategy for the MRM09 spread is recommended - For options, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [10] Group 7: Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit from different origins and shipping dates varies. For example, the crushing profit from Argentina in October is - 33.39 for the futures market and - 109.79 for the spot market, showing an improvement compared to the previous day [11]

Group 1 - The domestic liquefied gas market in China showed a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with an average price of 4833 yuan/ton for civil gas, down 84 yuan/ton or 1.71% year-on-year [2] - The average price for ether C4 was 4947 yuan/ton, a decrease of 317 yuan/ton or 6.02% year-on-year [2] - The overall energy prices were weak due to macro risks and supply-demand dynamics, with international crude oil prices fluctuating significantly [2][3] Group 2 - The supply of liquefied gas in the domestic market exceeded demand in the first half of 2025, with total supply estimated at 38.07 million tons and total demand at 37.56 million tons [3] - Inventory levels showed a trend of decreasing initially and then increasing, influenced by rising imports and low domestic demand [3] - The forecast for the second half of 2025 indicates a potential increase in liquefied gas prices initially, followed by a decline due to supply exceeding demand [4][6] Group 3 - The expected total supply for the second half of 2025 is 38.88 million tons, while total demand is projected at 37.60 million tons [4] - Domestic production is anticipated to increase due to reduced refinery maintenance and the gradual resumption of previously halted facilities [4] - The demand for liquefied gas is expected to rise slightly as the market transitions from off-peak to peak season, but overall demand remains in a downward trend [5] Group 4 - The average price forecast for civil gas in the second half of 2025 is 4773 yuan/ton, with a high of 4910 yuan/ton in October and a low of 4600 yuan/ton in July [7] - The average price for ether C4 is projected to be 4901 yuan/ton, with a peak of 5000 yuan/ton in September and a low of 4780 yuan/ton in December [7] - The market for ether C4 is expected to experience price fluctuations, initially rising due to increased demand and then declining in the fourth quarter [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans/meal, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs. Each product faces a unique set of market conditions, with both bullish and bearish factors influencing their prices. The overall market is characterized by a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, trade policies, and weather conditions [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans/Meal - **Market Conditions**: US soybeans were nearly flat on Tuesday, with a minor adjustment in the USDA area report and a muted market reaction. Favorable weather and the trade war are pressuring US soybeans, but low valuations provide some support. In China, the spot price of soybean meal fell by about 10 yuan, with a high but decreasing oil mill operating rate, weakening meal sales, and strong提货. The domestic port soybean inventory was 8.09 million tons, and the oil mill soybean meal inventory was 691,600 tons, showing a continuous inventory build - up trend [2]. - **Cost and Supply**: The cost range of far - month soybean meal contracts such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,020 yuan/ton. The current oil mill crushing volume is at a record high for the same period, leading to reduced downstream buying interest, faster inventory build - up, and a depressed domestic soybean meal valuation. Although the import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating due to low valuations, EPA policy support, and the fact that Brazil is the sole supplier from September to January, the overall supply of soybeans or protein remains excessive [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the mixed market situation, it is recommended to test long positions at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end [4]. Oils - **Important Information**: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in June, while production showed a mixed trend. Brazil's expected soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports in June have changed compared to previous forecasts. The domestic oil market was oscillating on Tuesday, with weak global oil import data weighing on prices. However, low Indian inventories, potential minor inventory reduction of Malaysian palm oil in June, and biodiesel policy support provided some upward momentum [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The US biodiesel policy draft has supported the oil price center, but the current high valuation limits the upside potential due to factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, undetermined RVO rules, macroeconomic conditions, and weak edible demand in major consuming countries. The market is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt an oscillating view of the oil market [9]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price declined slightly. The spot prices of different sugar producers showed mixed trends. In the first half of June, Brazil's central - southern region had a significant decrease in sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production compared to the same period last year. The delivery volume of the July raw sugar futures contract is expected to be the lowest since 2014 [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the low - price and low - volume delivery of the July raw sugar contract, the chaotic domestic futures spread structure, and the high profit margin of out - of - quota sugar imports after the decline in foreign prices, the sugar price may continue to fall [12]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price was weakly oscillating. The US 2025 cotton planting area forecast by USDA is higher than market expectations, and the US cotton good - to - excellent rate has improved compared to the previous week. In China, the recent expectation of Sino - US negotiations is supporting the cotton price, but the rapidly strengthening basis is unfavorable for downstream consumption, slowing down the inventory reduction speed, and there is a possibility of import quota issuance in the future [14][15]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the cotton price may continue to oscillate. Pay close attention to the outcome of Sino - US negotiations [15]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The national egg price was stable with some declines. The supply changed little, while the demand was conservative, and industry players were cautious. The egg price is expected to be stable in most areas and slightly weaker in some regions [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the weak and stable spot price, the time is unfavorable for long positions in the near - month contracts. However, the later the seasonal price increase occurs, the greater the potential divergence in the peak - season contracts. Considering the large production capacity and insufficient de - stocking, the medium - term strategy is to wait for price rebounds to short, and in the short term, reduce short positions at low prices or adopt a wait - and - see approach for near - month contracts [17]. Pigs - **Spot Market**: The domestic pig price continued to rise on the previous day. The supply of pigs for slaughter may still be limited, but most downstream buyers are resistant to high - price pigs, and the supply of pigs for slaughter may gradually increase, limiting the upward space of the pig price [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: For near - term contracts such as 07 and 09, it is recommended to take short - term long positions at appropriate low prices before delivery. For contracts in the second half of the year such as 11 and 01, since their valuations are above the cost line and they are likely to experience a transition from inventory build - up to de - stocking, wait for high - price opportunities to short [20].

农产品早报 2025-07-01 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周一美豆小幅上涨后回落，USDA 面积报告显示 2025 年大豆种植面积为 8336 万英亩，较 3 月意向仅下 调 13 万英亩，市场反应平淡。上周交易天气较好及贸易战担忧美豆整体回落，不过美豆估值略低，可 能存在一定支撑。周一国内豆粕现货小幅上调 30-50 元左右，华东报 2840 元/吨，油厂开机率下调但仍 较高，豆粕成交较弱，提货仍较好。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内港口大豆库存为 809 万吨，油厂豆粕库 存 69.16 万吨，维持累库趋势。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳定小涨，中国买盘有所放缓， 中美大豆关税仍未 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/short trend in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability and a suggestion to wait and see [1] - Apple, Natural Rubber, 20 - rubber, Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The market has a tight inventory expectation for cotton, while the downstream demand for pure cotton yarn is insufficient. The trend of US sugar is downward, and Zheng sugar is weak. Apple demand enters the off - season, and the market focuses on the new - season yield estimate. For natural rubber, downstream demand is average, supply increases, and inventory rises, with an export performance exceeding expectations. Pulp demand is weak with relatively loose supply. Log supply has certain positive factors, but the price rebound power is insufficient [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zheng cotton maintained a narrow - range shock. Domestic cotton trading was average with a firm - to - strong basis. The positive news from Sino - US negotiations boosted prices, but details remained to be seen. Pure cotton yarn trading was light due to weak downstream demand in the off - season. As of the end of May, the commercial cotton inventory was 345.87 million tons, showing a month - on - month decrease of 69.39 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 31.54 million tons. In May, China imported 4 million tons of cotton, the lowest in the past 10 years. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or go long with a light position on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil's central - southern region, the production data in the second half of May was bearish, with an increase in cane crushing volume and sugar production year - on - year, and a continuous rise in the cane - to - sugar ratio. In June, the rainfall in the main production areas was low, which was conducive to cane harvesting. In China, Zheng sugar fluctuated weakly. In May, China imported 35 million tons of sugar, an increase of 33.31 million tons year - on - year. The import volume increased significantly due to rising import profits and the issuance of licenses. Although Guangxi's sugar production increased this year, the inventory decreased year - on - year due to a fast sales pace. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated weakly. The spot price remained stable. The demand entered the off - season. Although the cold - storage apple inventory was low, the increase in seasonal fruit supply and hot weather reduced apple demand, and the price increase slowed down. The sharp decline in litchi prices also affected apple demand. The market's focus shifted to the new - season yield estimate. The cold wave and strong winds during the flowering period in the western production areas might affect the fruit - setting rate and apple quality, but the impact of low - temperature in April on yield was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. The overall flower quantity in the production areas was sufficient, and the yield estimate was relatively bearish. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber - The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged. RU fluctuated, NR rose slightly, and BR rose marginally. The domestic natural rubber spot price generally declined, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable with a slight increase, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price generally increased. The global natural rubber supply entered the growth period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to decline last week. In May, China's tire exports increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The domestic all - steel tire operating rate continued to decline, while the semi - steel tire operating rate rebounded. The all - steel tire inventory continued to decline, and the semi - steel tire inventory increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao rose to 60.7 million tons, the bonded - area inventory decreased, and the general - trade inventory increased. The domestic butadiene rubber social inventory rose slightly to 1.37 million tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory rose to 2.84 million tons. The strategy is to be bullish [6] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was stable at 6050 yuan/ton, Hebei Wuzhen and Buzhen were quoted at 5250 yuan/ton, and the broad - leaf pulp Star was quoted at 4100 yuan/ton. As of June 12, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 218.5 million tons, a 2.8 - million - ton increase from the previous period, a 1.3% month - on - month increase. In May, China imported 301.6 million tons of pulp, and the cumulative import volume from January to May was 1554.7 million tons, a 2.1% year - on - year increase. The domestic port inventory was high year - on - year, pulp demand was weak, and supply was relatively loose. Pulp valuation was low with strong support near the previous low. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [7] Log - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. In June, the log quotation in New Zealand stopped falling and stabilized, and the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increased month - on - month. After the increase in foreign quotations, the spot price bottomed out and rose, supporting the futures price. After entering the off - season, the average daily port delivery volume was about 60,000 cubic meters, showing relatively good demand. As of June 13, the total log inventory in national ports was 3.45 million cubic meters, a 60,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous period. The radiata pine inventory was 2.72 million cubic meters, a 30,000 - cubic - meter decrease. Radiata pine continued to destock, reducing inventory pressure. Although the supply had certain positive factors, the price rebound power was insufficient due to the off - season domestic demand. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [8]