1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2980 - 3040. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by the US soybean trend, with short - term demand in the off - season and spot price discounts suppressing the upward movement of the futures price. It is likely to maintain a volatile pattern [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The domestic soybean market is affected by the US soybean trend, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans compared to imported ones, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production, resulting in a short - term volatile situation [11]. - The short - term soybean meal market is in an interval - oscillation pattern, affected by factors such as the preliminary agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the high - level arrival of imported soybeans, the decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits, and the relatively high inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean meal M2601: It is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bearish; the inventory situation is bearish; the price on the disk is neutral; the main position is bearish; the short - term is expected to maintain an interval - oscillation pattern [9]. - Soybean A2601: It is expected to oscillate between 4060 and 4160. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is neutral; the inventory situation is bearish; the price on the disk is neutral; the main position is bearish; the short - term is expected to maintain an interval - oscillation pattern [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is strongly oscillating above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from the high level in November. The soybean meal market has returned to an interval - oscillation pattern [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment, and the demand for soybean meal weakened in November, suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal [13]. - The relatively high inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary agreement of Sino - US trade negotiations have caused the short - term soybean meal market to maintain an interval - oscillation pattern [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary agreement of Sino - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal is not under pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest [15]. 3.3.2 Soybean - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean disk; the expected increase in domestic demand for soybeans supports the price expectation [16]. - Bearish factors: The good harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global soybean supply - demand balance: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [33]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [34]. - The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil in different years is provided, including the sowing rate, emergence rate, excellent - good rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvesting rate [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44]. - The monthly supply - demand report of the USDA in the past six months shows changes in planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume [46]. - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year; the arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from the high level in November but increased year - on - year overall [47][49]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in the soybean meal market increased, and funds flowed out [9]. - The main short positions in the soybean market increased, and funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - The futures price of soybean meal oscillated downward, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot discount narrowed slightly [24]. - The soybean input volume of oil mills remained at a high level, and the soybean meal output in September increased year - on - year [26][54]. - The low - level procurement and pick - up volume of domestic downstream industries increased [28]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract also fluctuated slightly [30]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the US soybeans, and the disk profit fluctuated slightly [56]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [58]. - The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [60]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly [62]. - The domestic pig - breeding profit decreased slightly [64].

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - **For Bean Meal (M2601)**: The domestic bean meal is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern between 3080 and 3140. It is influenced by the US soybean trend, with short - term demand in the off - season and spot price discount suppressing the upward movement. Although China's purchase of US soybeans supports the short - term US soybean market, there are uncertainties in the purchase volume, and the overall good US soybean harvest weather restricts the upside. Additionally, the relatively high arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China also affects the domestic bean meal market [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2601)**: The domestic soybean price is expected to fluctuate between 4160 and 4260. The US soybean trend, the cost support of imported soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price. However, the high production of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppress the price [11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are uncertainties in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is expected to be range - bound above the thousand - point mark in the short term, waiting for further guidance on the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the planting weather in South American soybean - producing areas. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from a high level. The relatively normal harvest weather of US soybeans and the China - US trade negotiation agreement led to the short - term range - bound pattern of domestic bean meal, waiting for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bean Meal Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' bean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bean Meal Bearish Factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in November, the listing of harvested US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a good US soybean harvest [14]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: High production of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases, and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: Spot price is 3000 (East China), with a basis of - 43, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill bean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: Not specifically elaborated on fundamental data other than the price range and influencing factors 5. Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The main short positions increased, and the funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: Not specifically elaborated on position data other than the price range and influencing factors 6. Bean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies - **Bean Meal (M2601)**: The short - term trend is neutral. The basis is bearish, the inventory is bearish, the price on the chart is bullish, the main position is bearish, and the overall short - term expectation is a range - bound pattern [9]. - **Soybeans (A2601)**: The short - term trend is neutral. The basis is bearish, the inventory is bearish, the price on the chart is bullish, the main position is bearish, and the overall short - term expectation is a range - bound pattern [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - Employment data shows improvement, and there are expectations for policy support [1] - The construction materials sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 0.97%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 2.05% [3] - The cement market is experiencing a slight recovery in demand, particularly in southern regions, while prices are expected to remain stable [5][10] - The glass market is under pressure with high inventory levels and weak demand, but medium-term supply-side adjustments are anticipated [41][43] - The fiberglass sector is expected to see improved profitability due to supply constraints and increasing demand from new applications [5] Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average price for high-standard cement is 352.3 RMB/ton, up 1.2 RMB/ton from last week but down 74.8 RMB/ton from the same period last year. The average cement inventory level is 69.8%, with an average shipment rate of 46.2% [11][18] - **Glass**: The average price for float glass is 1195.4 RMB/ton, down 1.9 RMB/ton from last week and down 258.4 RMB/ton year-on-year. Inventory levels are at 5962 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 54 million from last week [43][45] - **Fiberglass**: Prices for fiberglass remain stable, with a focus on high-end products. The market is expected to see improved profitability as supply constraints persist [5] 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from policy support and improving economic indicators, with a focus on companies involved in the export supply chain and home renovation [3][5] - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements and domestic semiconductor development, recommending companies in the cleanroom engineering sector [5] 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector has shown a positive trend compared to broader market indices, indicating potential for further growth [3] - The report suggests that the cement industry is at a historical low in terms of price-to-book ratios, presenting opportunities for investment as policies are expected to support recovery [5][10]

美国财政部长贝森特在周日播出的讲话中表示，中美之间的稀土协议“有望”在感恩节前达成。贝森特称，虽然美中贸易协议尚未最终敲定，但美国必须相信中国领导人会信守承诺。（而此前贝森特曾暗示中国是“不可靠的伙伴”）贝森特还坚称美国“有很多筹码”。 https://t.co/ytRl59Feln ...

铜产业链周度报告 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-11-14 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | A | 0 | 1 | P | R | T | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation has short - term positive exhaustion but remains optimistic in the medium - term. The end of the US government shutdown has a complex impact on the market. Domestically, the economy in October was generally stable with new kinetic energy growing. Fundamentally, overseas supply concerns support aluminum prices, but downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the aluminum price may face resistance at 22,000 and maintain high - level oscillations, awaiting more economic data [6][7] - The trading strategy is to expect the aluminum price to encounter resistance at 22,000, maintain high - level oscillations, and wait for more economic data [8] Summary by Directory Report Summary - The US government shutdown ended on November 12, 2025. The macro situation has short - term positive exhaustion, and the US employment data decline increases the expectation of a December interest rate cut. In China, the economy in October was generally stable, with social financing growth stable and the M2 - M1 gap widening [5][6] - Fundamentally, overseas supply concerns support aluminum prices, but downstream demand is expected to weaken after the traditional peak season. The aluminum price may face resistance at 22,000 and maintain high - level oscillations [7] Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: Market risk preference improves, the increase in positions and upward movement attract capital attention, and overseas aluminum supply and demand remain tight [11] - **Bearish factors**: The demand side shows signs of weakening, and social inventory destocking is not smooth [11] Data Analysis - **Aluminum ore supply**: In September 2025, China's domestic bauxite production was 488.21 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 2.32%. Supply was tight in the short term but is expected to recover significantly later. In September, China imported 15.88 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month decrease of 13.2% and a year - on - year increase of 37.5%. The impact of the rainy season on imports will end in October [21][24] - **Alumina production**: In October 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased by 2.4% month - on - month and 6.8% year - on - year. It is expected that there will be regional production cuts and maintenance in November, and the cost will continue to decline [26] - **Electrolytic aluminum production**: In October 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased. In November, production may be restricted by environmental protection policies, and the aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline slightly [30] - **Electrolytic aluminum cost and profit**: In September 2025, the weighted average full cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 15,918 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 193 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit reached 4,849 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 301 yuan/ton [34] - **Aluminum processing**: In the traditional peak season from October to November, the aluminum processing industry was under pressure due to high aluminum prices. The overall aluminum processing start - up rate was 61.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6% [38] - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory and SHFE aluminum inventory both decreased slightly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots was volatile, and as of November 13, it was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from Monday [49][52] - **Premium and discount**: On November 13, the Shanghai Wumaomao aluminum average price premium and discount was - 10 yuan/ton, with the discount narrowing; the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium and discount was - 27.55 US dollars/ton, with the discount widening [56] - **Recycled aluminum**: In October, domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 645,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,000 tons. The start - up rate of small enterprises was only 13.82%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%. As of November 6, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 59.1%, unchanged week - on - week [60][64] - **Aluminum alloy import**: In September 2025, the import of unwrought aluminum alloy was about 82,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12,500 tons (13.2%) and a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons (15.77%). It is expected that the import increase in October will be limited and lower than the same period [68] - **Aluminum alloy inventory**: As of November 7, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 72,800 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous week, and the in - factory inventory was 59,900 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons from the previous week [73] Future Outlook - **Aluminum alloy**: It follows the aluminum price trend. Attention should be paid to marginal changes in raw material circulation and signs of demand improvement [74] - **SHFE aluminum**: It may face resistance at 22,000 and maintain high - level oscillations, awaiting more economic data [76]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3040 - 3100. It is affected by the US soybean trend, demand in the off - season, and the spot price discount, and is likely to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [9]. - The soybean A2601 is projected to oscillate between 4120 and 4220. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, while the large - scale arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the upside [11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US soybean market is strongly volatile above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also dropped from a high level. Soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing its price [13]. - The high inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas, and the China - US trade negotiation agreement have caused soybean meal to maintain a short - term range - bound pattern [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans in November, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and an expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3010, with a basis of - 61, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is 115300 tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 29, a discount to the futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 710790 tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week but a 29.06% increase year - on - year [11]. - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [11]. 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation agreement. The short - term outlook is neutral, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. Soybeans - The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game. The short - term view is neutral, and it is likely to oscillate within a certain range [11].

中美日前达成了"休战一年的贸易协议"，中方之所以与美方达成协议完全是为了两国百姓，但特朗普可不这么认为。 据外媒报道，特朗普在接受采访时骄傲的认为：中国之所以休战，是因为美国太强大，究竟是谁给特朗普的自信，他这番言论背后又有什么目的？ 特朗普那套"我赢了"的话术，听起来更像是一种心虚的呐喊。因为就在这份协议达成之前，他的后院早已火光冲天。 美国联邦政府刚刚经历了有史以来最长的一次停摆，超过四十天的瘫痪状态，让无数公共服务陷入停滞。这种混乱直接戳破了"让美国再次伟大"的美好愿 景，民众的支持率也随之下滑。 经济上的麻烦更是接踵而至。他引以为傲的关税政策，最终变成了普通家庭账单上不断上涨的数字，消费成本一路飙升。而那些依赖全球供应链的企业，更 是怨声载道，日子过得一天比一天艰难。 更要命的是，他的关税大权甚至在最高法院都面临着合法性的严峻审查。一旦被裁定违宪，政府可能需要退还天文数字般的税款，这将是政治和财政上的双 重灾难。 内外交困之下，急需一个能转移矛盾的"外交突破口"。于是，中美间的这次休战，就被他巧妙地包装成了一场"伟大的外交胜利"。"不是我搞砸了，而是中 国怕我了"，这个故事完美地掩盖了国内的烂摊子。 ...

Group 1 - The US and China mutually reduced tariffs on November 10, with the US lowering tariffs on fentanyl-related products from 20% to 10%, and China suspending retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans up to 15% [2][4] - According to estimates from Japan's Nomura Research Institute, a 10% reduction in tariffs on China could increase global real GDP by approximately 0.04% over three years, with Japan experiencing a 0.05% boost [2][4] - The agreement reached during the US-China summit on October 30 is set to remain in effect until November 10, 2026, with both countries continuing to suspend the implementation of reciprocal tariffs [4] Group 2 - The US Trade Representative announced that the "port fees" imposed on Chinese vessels will be postponed for one year, which could help stimulate global trade and economic recovery [4] - China is expected to resume imports of US soybeans, with plans to import over 12 million tons in 2025 and at least 25 million tons annually from 2026 to 2028 [5] - There are differing views on the adjustment of rare earth export controls, with the US advocating for the complete abolition of past controls, while China has only postponed certain controls for a year [5]