Market Activity - The A-share market remains active with trading volumes exceeding 1 trillion yuan for 19 consecutive trading days as of June 24, indicating sustained investor enthusiasm [1] - The margin trading balance in the A-share market has been above 1.8 trillion yuan for 15 consecutive trading days in June, reaching 18,220.06 billion yuan, which accounts for 2.25% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - In June, there were 12 trading days where the margin buying amount exceeded 100 billion yuan [1] Margin Trading Trends - A brokerage firm in East China reported a month-on-month increase in margin trading balances since the beginning of the year, with a notable rise in high-value clients [3] - Margin trading balances are used to gauge market activity and investor sentiment, with a peak of 19,460.86 billion yuan in March, the highest since 2015 [4] - Following a decline in April, margin trading has stabilized between 1.7 trillion and 1.8 trillion yuan since May [4] Sector Preferences - The top five sectors favored by margin trading funds from June 16 to June 23 include electronics, non-bank financials, computers, biomedicine, and power equipment, with respective market value shares of 3.17%, 2.75%, 4.29%, 2.71%, and 2.91% [4] - Recent stocks with significant increases in margin balances include Haike Xinyuan, Chizheng Co., Huawai Design, Yihua New Materials, and Yishi Precision [4][5] Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent recovery in leveraged funds indicates increased investor confidence in the market [5] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with improving performance, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and brokerage firms, as well as stablecoin concept stocks that have recently gained traction [6] - The outlook for the A-share market in the second half of the year is optimistic, with expectations of foreign capital inflows and a focus on high-quality companies in finance, consumption, and pharmaceuticals [7] Investment Strategies - Key investment themes for the second half of the year include the recovery of the real estate cycle, overlooked consumer demand, and increased capital expenditure in high-tech sectors [8] - Recommended investment opportunities include financials with high dividends, emerging technology sectors, and cyclical consumer goods that are expected to benefit from improved competition and supply-demand dynamics [8] - The Chinese equity market is anticipated to outperform overseas markets, with strong policy support for growth sectors likely to attract more attention to emerging high-growth areas [8]

证券分析师：张冬冬 2025 年 06 月 20 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.06.20）：缩量下跌 相关研究报告 <<策略日报（2025.06.19）：调整>>- -2025-06-19 <<策略日报（2025.06.18）：小幅收 涨>>--2025-06-18 <<策略日报（2025.06.17）：窄幅震 荡>>--2025-06-18 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 大类资产跟踪 债券市场：利率债全线上涨，长端涨幅大于短端。我们认为股市波动 率仍在低位，基本面的疲弱将限制上涨的高度，因此未来波动率的抬升更 可能是向下调整，维持债市后续将受益于避险资金的流入的判断。后续展 望：在地缘冲突加剧背景下，随着股市波动率可能抬高，资金避险需求或 使得债券重拾涨势。 A 股：市场缩量下跌，创业板指跌 0.84%。市场全天成交额 1.09 万 亿，较前一日缩量 0.19 万亿，个股呈普跌态势， 1465 只个股上涨，3455 只个股下跌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how the depreciation of the Egyptian pound against the Chinese yuan has created a structural opportunity for Chinese travelers, allowing them to enjoy high-quality travel experiences at lower costs, thus reshaping travel preferences and service models in the tourism industry [4][5][14]. Group 1: Currency Impact on Travel - The Egyptian pound has experienced significant depreciation, dropping nearly 40% against the US dollar since March 2024, leading to a favorable exchange rate for the Chinese yuan [4][5]. - The appreciation of the yuan against several currencies, including the Japanese yen and Malaysian ringgit, has resulted in decreased travel expenses for Chinese tourists, with a reported increase in tourist numbers corresponding to currency depreciation [5][9]. - The trend of "low-cost outbound travel" is reshaping destination choices, with countries like Egypt and Uzbekistan becoming popular due to their affordability and favorable exchange rates [5][6]. Group 2: Changing Travel Preferences - Travelers are increasingly seeking immersive experiences rather than traditional sightseeing, with a focus on local living and quality of life [6][10]. - The average cost of travel in Egypt has been reported as low as 11,000 RMB for 33 days, highlighting the affordability of accommodations and food [8][10]. - The rise of "skill-based travel" is noted, where travelers engage in activities like diving and culinary experiences at significantly lower costs compared to domestic prices [16][18]. Group 3: Evolution of Travel Services - The travel market is witnessing a shift from traditional packaged tours to more flexible, customized travel services, driven by changing consumer expectations [18][19]. - The demand for local guides and personalized services is increasing, with a notable rise in the use of local Chinese-speaking guides in popular destinations [19][20]. - The outbound travel market is recovering steadily, with projections indicating a 40% increase in outbound trips in 2024 compared to 2023, maintaining China's position as the largest source of outbound tourists [9][20].

Macro Economic Indicators - As of the end of May, China's gold reserves stood at 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), marking an increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) month-on-month, representing the seventh consecutive month of gold accumulation by the central bank [1][3]. - The National Bureau of Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for May on June 9 [2][3]. - The 2025 China Marine Economy Development Index was released on June 8, indicating a 2.3% year-on-year growth, with the index projected to reach 125.2 in 2024, reflecting strong momentum in marine economic development [1][3]. Company Developments - BYD held its 2024 shareholder meeting on June 6, where Chairman Wang Chuanfu expressed confidence in achieving a sales target of 10 million vehicles in the next 5-10 years, emphasizing the importance of intelligent driving technology [15]. - Stone Technology announced plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance global brand recognition and optimize capital structure [18]. - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) and Shanghai Electric Group discussed expanding their cooperation following a strategic agreement signed last year [18]. Market Trends - The first quarter of this year saw a 67.8% year-on-year increase in international cruise passenger transport in China, highlighting the robust growth of the marine economy [12]. - The number of newly registered private equity securities investment funds increased by over 45% year-on-year as of May 31, indicating a surge in both new and existing capital entering the market [13]. - High dividend returns and value enhancement strategies are being promoted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange to boost investor confidence and market activity [8]. Regulatory and Governance Updates - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) issued new guidelines for the development planning of central enterprises, establishing a three-tier planning system [6]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. as the actual controller of several securities and fund management companies [9][11].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the **Chinese economy** and its transition from a debt-driven cycle to a more sustainable growth model driven by supply constraints, indicating a healthier economic path with significantly reduced endogenous volatility [1][4][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Industrial Output and Resilience**: Despite facing challenges from US-China tariffs, China's industrial output structure is optimizing, with mid and downstream manufacturing showing strong resilience. The data indicates a decline in volume but stable prices and profit growth, suggesting an improving supply landscape [1][5][9]. - **Capital Expenditure Trends**: Capital expenditure by Chinese listed companies has decreased since 2021, currently at low levels. However, as the supply structure improves, the profit weight of midstream manufacturing is increasing, while downstream consumer manufacturing is slowly recovering, indicating potential for stable growth in the future [1][6][7]. - **Technological Development**: The advancement in technology, particularly in robotics, drones, and new drug development, is enhancing China's industrial resilience and promoting stable, sustainable economic growth [1][12]. - **New Consumption Trends**: There is a notable increase in demand from middle and low-income groups, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, which are leading the consumption recovery. However, the overall recovery remains weak [1][15][16]. - **Profit Expansion Model Shift**: The profit expansion model in China's capital market is shifting from being driven by capital expenditure to being based on supply constraints. This change suggests that industry leaders with stable cash flows will see an increase in valuation levels [1][17][18]. Additional Important Insights - **Global Economic Impact**: The US debt crisis and policy adjustments may lead to a shift in the global economy towards an inflationary logic rather than recession, positively impacting global markets and potentially accelerating the appreciation of the Renminbi [1][13]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The supply-demand landscape is improving, with a gradual recovery expected in mid and downstream manufacturing. This improvement is not driven by demand but by a rebalancing of supply and demand [1][10][11]. - **Long-term Renminbi Appreciation**: The long-term trend indicates a potential appreciation of the Renminbi due to the gradual decline of the dollar's global dominance, supported by China's manufacturing and geopolitical strengths [1][19][20]. - **Impact on Capital Markets**: The influx of capital from the US into the Chinese market is expected to drive asset prices up, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market, which may also reflect in the A-share market [1][24][25]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy and its industries.

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年06月04日16时39分 一、黄金 报告导读： ①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战反复，经济衰退地缘异动风险上升；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储对降息维持谨慎态度。②避险 属性方面，特朗普称6月4日起把进口钢铁关税提高至50%。关税暂缓期即将结束，美国敦促各国在周三前拿出最佳方案。欧盟表 示本周将强烈要求美国降低关税，若无果将进行反制。俄乌伊斯坦布尔和谈仅一小时破裂，俄方提出苛刻停火条件。路透报道，伊 朗准备拒绝美国的核提议。③货币属性方面，美联储会议纪要显示，美联储承认通胀和失业率恐同时攀升，将面临艰难取舍。关税 阴霾下美国制造业继续萎缩，供应商交货时间达到近三年来最长。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至 50基点左右。美元指数承压回调，美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡反弹，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤ 预计贵金属短期震荡偏多，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。⑥晚间美国5月ADP就业人数前值6.2万人，市场预期值11万人，关注 数据超预期风险。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 ...

Group 1 - The insurance securities ETF (515630.SH) increased by 0.73%, while its associated index 800 Insurance (399966.SZ) rose by 0.84% [1] - Major constituent stocks such as Dongfang Caifu, CITIC Securities, China Pacific Insurance, and Huatai Securities showed positive performance, with increases ranging from 1.09% to 5.89% [1] - Shenzhen's recent implementation plan aims to promote high-quality development in service and digital trade, particularly benefiting the financial insurance sector [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities noted that the upcoming reduction in the preset interest rate is expected to lower industry costs and improve liquidity, positively impacting insurance stock valuations [2] - The anticipated appreciation of the RMB is likely to enhance market performance for Hong Kong stocks, benefiting non-trade financial stocks [2] - Huachuang Securities highlighted the progress of long-term investment reform trials for insurance funds, with the trial scale increasing to 222 billion yuan, which may help reduce performance volatility in equity allocations [2]

华泰证券发布2025中期展望称，2025下半年，第一，ROE有望企稳回升：净利率改善、周转率企稳、权 益乘数上行背景下A股ROE有望结束下行周期，伴随盈利周期的复苏逐步进入企稳回升阶段；第二，中 国资产广谱型估值修复仍在演绎。科技创新、地产下行最快阶段度过与政策周期改善三大变量推动春节 以来中国资产修复，下半年趋势未有变化，"去美元化"形成人民币升值动力，中国资产配置吸引力有望 提升；第三，关注A50、消费、金融代表的核心资产，在过去三年展现出卓越的基本面韧性，也有望在 本轮ROE周期回升内担任"先锋手"；第四，关注人民币升值、技术周期、产能周期、库存周期、资本 市场变革五条投资线索。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 6月3日早盘，A股主要指数低开后快速走强，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指、中证A500指数翻红，盘 面上网络游戏、脑机接口、黄金珠宝、稀土等概念走强。 相关ETF方面，截至发稿，A500ETF基金（512050）成交额超10亿元，暂居同标的产品第一。成分股 中，掌趣科技涨超13%，巨人网络、华海药业、航天彩虹等涨超8%。 资料显示 ...

弘则策略 宏观迷雾逐步消散 20250530 摘要 中美贸易关系复杂，虽有摩擦，但相互依存。中国通过加强与东盟、欧 盟等非美地区的贸易合作，维持出口韧性，转口贸易策略显著。 对等关税增加美国进口成本，中国出口面临压力，但通过多元化贸易伙 伴缓解。欧盟和日本采取拖延战术，贸易协议达成时间可能推迟。 短期内，中国出口表现优于预期，但下半年可能回落。若联邦法院撤销 部分关税，将缓解紧张关系，延长影响周期。 美国 2025 年实际 GDP 增速预期下调，受关税影响显著。中国二季度出 口预计增长 7%，全年 GDP 预测约为 4.75%，下半年贸易和投资数据 下滑。 中国房地产投资低于预期，政策方面，下半年财政加码可能性大，或通 过特别国债和新增专项债项目支持经济，但总体思路是托而不举。 美元贬值趋势明确，但各国宽松货币政策形成牵制。美联储偏鹰派及通 胀预期走高导致货币政策偏紧，广场协议 2.0 可能性不大。 人民币存在升值预期，年底有望接近 7。日本经济面临成本推动型通胀， 央行维持超宽松货币政策，对日债需保持谨慎。 Q&A 近期宏观经济环境中的主要变化是什么？ 近期宏观经济环境中的主要变化包括中美贸易谈判的不确定性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Galaxy Securities predicts a fluctuating upward trend in the A-share market for June, suggesting a mixed strategy for investment focusing on three main lines: consumption, technology, and dividends [1] Investment Strategy - Galaxy Securities recommends a balanced investment approach, emphasizing the importance of growth sectors such as technology, which are expected to benefit from policy support and industrial development [1] - The report highlights the consumer sector, which is anticipated to gain from domestic consumption policies and the expected appreciation of the Renminbi [1] - Banks are noted for their earnings certainty, low valuations, and high dividends, making them valuable during market fluctuations [1] Sector Focus - The report suggests focusing on value stocks within the technology and consumer sectors for investment opportunities in June [1]