Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has sparked diverse opinions in the market, with some believing it may enter a sustained appreciation phase, while others express concerns about its negative impact on export enterprises [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - On January 23, the RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 6.9929, marking a 90 basis point increase from the previous trading day and reaching the highest level since May 2023 [1] - The RMB has remained above the "7" mark since breaking it at the end of last year, with a projected 4.4% appreciation against the USD by 2025 [1] - Factors contributing to the recent RMB appreciation include a weakening USD, robust Chinese economic fundamentals, and released demand for foreign exchange [1] Group 2: Impact on Exports - Traditionally, RMB appreciation negatively affects export enterprises by reducing price competitiveness, decreasing RMB returns from exports, and compressing profit margins [3] - However, the impact of RMB appreciation on exports is gradually diminishing due to the diversification of foreign trade structures and the optimization of export product categories [3] - The increasing ability of enterprises to adapt to exchange rate fluctuations, with hedging ratios rising to around 30%, helps mitigate the impact of currency volatility on operations [3] Group 3: Import Perspective - RMB appreciation enhances its purchasing power in international markets, which can lower the import costs of bulk commodities and high-end equipment [3] Group 4: RMB Internationalization - The pace of RMB internationalization is accelerating, with cross-border RMB payments reaching 35 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 14% year-on-year increase [4] - The acceptance of RMB in international trade settlements is improving, particularly among countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative and regions like ASEAN and Africa [4] Group 5: Economic Resilience - The core support for maintaining RMB exchange rate stability comes from the strong resilience of the Chinese economy, characterized by a large market size, complete industrial chains, and ongoing technological and industrial innovation [4] - The continuous increase in foreign exchange trading volume and the diversification of market participants enhance the market's ability to absorb external changes [4] Group 6: Market Mechanism and Risk Management - In a market-driven exchange rate formation mechanism, RMB exchange rates are determined by market supply and demand, with fluctuations being a normal occurrence [5] - Companies are encouraged to focus on core competencies and enhance international competitiveness while adopting a "risk-neutral" approach to manage currency risks using various hedging tools [5]

宏 观 研 究 2026 年 01 月 28 日 投资要点： 一、美联储降息"前紧后松" 我们认为，美国货币政策将呈现出"前紧后松"的特征。如果鲍威 尔在任期内仍然维持略显鹰派的政策态度，那么，下半年，我们预计 会迎来美联储的报复式降息 二、美元还会明显走弱 宏 观 专 在当前美元指数已经降破 97 的时候，美元在 26 年还会进一步的 走弱么？我们的答案依然是肯定的。基于对美联储货币政策"前紧后 松"的判断，我们预计，宽松的货币政策环境，叠加全球各国对于安全 需求的上升，美元或将继续走弱。 三、人民币汇率步入升值通道 题 我们认为，人民币汇率已经步入中期的升值通道。近来我们看到 人民币汇率正在向出口增速中枢复归，6.8 左右是较为匹配当前出口态 势的水平，如果考虑到人民币汇率在升贬值过程中往往容易出现超调， 那么，人民币汇率有进一步向上升破 6.8 的可能。 四、外需与内需会再平衡 人民币汇率在某种意义上，是横亘在内需和外需之间的"分配线"。 我们认为，人民币汇率步入中期升值通道的过程，其实也就是我国在 政策层面对外需和内需的再平衡。部分产品出口退税的削减乃至消除， 也能够证明内需在政策考量中的相对重要性逐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market generally believes that the RMB exchange rate will not exhibit a unilateral appreciation trend, despite recent strengthening against the USD [4][6]. Exchange Rate Trends - As of January 28, the RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 6.9755, a significant increase of 103 basis points from the previous trading day, continuing the appreciation trend after breaching the 7.0 mark [1]. - The RMB's central parity rate has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with a notable increase of 90 basis points on January 23, marking the largest single-day appreciation since August 25, 2025 [2]. - The onshore and offshore RMB rates began appreciating at the end of 2025, with both markets continuing to show slight appreciation around the 6.9 range in 2026 [2]. Factors Driving Appreciation - The rapid appreciation of the RMB is driven by a combination of international market conditions and domestic supply-demand dynamics [2]. - A "weak dollar" environment has provided significant external support for RMB appreciation, with the dollar index declining from 100.22 to 97.51 since late November 2025, a drop of approximately 2.7% [2]. - Domestically, a surge in seasonal foreign exchange settlement demand has been a core driver of the RMB's strength, with settlement demand in late 2025 significantly exceeding historical seasonal levels [2][3]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent RMB appreciation has been fueled by high market sentiment, with accumulated settlement demand from previous high export growth potentially accelerating [3]. - Analysts predict that while the RMB may continue to show strength in the short term, it is unlikely to maintain a unilateral appreciation trend throughout the year [4][6]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated that the RMB exchange rate will continue to exhibit two-way fluctuations and maintain elasticity, aiming to prevent rapid appreciation or unilateral trends [5]. Long-term Projections - Analysts from Galaxy Securities expect the RMB to appreciate steadily rather than sharply, with seasonal settlement demand typically weakening in February and March [5]. - The RMB exchange rate will largely depend on three factors: the dollar's performance, the intensity of central parity regulation, and the effects of domestic export and growth policies [5][6]. - There is a potential for depreciation pressure on the RMB in 2026, influenced by a stabilization of the dollar index and the impact of high tariffs on global trade and exports [6].

隔夜美元指数大跌，人民币对美元即期汇率1月28日升破6.95。 人民币对美元即期汇率1月28日开盘即升破6.05关口，截至发稿，盘中最高升至6.9449，较前一交易日升 值123点，创下2023年5月15日以来的新高。 当地时间1月27日，当被问及是否希望看到美元进一步贬值时，美国总统特朗普表示对美元下跌不感到 担心。在特朗普发表上述言论后，美元指数下跌逾1%，创下2022年2月以来的最低水平。非美货币迎来 大涨，离岸人民币对美元汇率1月27日一度升至6.9312。 1月28日，美元指数从低位反弹，截至发稿，美元指数日内上涨0.36%。 今年以来，人民币对美元即期汇率累计升值超0.6%。美元指数则下跌超过2%。 银河证券在研报中指出，2025年11月底以来人民币汇率加速升值主要受到两个因素的推动：其一，市场 进入"弱美元"交易，非美货币普遍呈现升值；其二，从内部来看，年末人民币结汇需求通常季节性走 强，叠加较强的升值预期，2025年年末的结汇需求显著强于季节性，2025年12月银行代客结售汇顺差达 999亿美元创历史新高，外汇供求关系有利于人民币走强。但是观察到央行已释放逆周期调节的政策信 号，人民币汇率将呈 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 继在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率双双升破7关口之后，人民币对美元汇率中间价亦悄然破7。 1月26日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币6.9843元，相较前一交易 日中间价6.9929，调升86基点，续创2023年5月以来的新高。 人民币汇率中间价是指中国外汇交易中心根据中国人民银行授权，每日上午9:15发布的基准汇率，覆盖人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港 元、英镑等主要外汇币种。中间价由中国外汇交易中心根据做市商报价计算得出，是银行间外汇交易市场和银行挂牌汇价的重要参考指 标。 人民币兑美元汇率升值对个人和企业都会带来深刻影响。居民跨境消费、留学和旅游成本降低，换汇时可兑换更多美元。而对持有美元 存款或美元理财产品的居民来说，其资产以人民币计价会出现缩水。对美出口企业的价格竞争力可能会相对削弱，结汇环节的利润有所 减少。相反，依赖进口原材料、零部件的制造业企业则受益于进口成本降低，改善企业盈利状况。 不过，从高层表态来看，人民币汇率升值对进出口贸易的影响整体有限。中国人民银行副行长邹澜此前在国新办新闻发布会上表示，外 贸企业以人民币开 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around macroeconomic trends, inflation expectations, and the performance of various industries in the context of the Chinese and U.S. markets. [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has improved, particularly in second and third-tier cities, indicating a recovery in market activity to about 50-66% of previous levels. [2] Inflation Expectations - A "pork-oil resonance" phenomenon is anticipated in 2026, signaling the end of deflation and a return to inflation, with a CPI central tendency expected to reach 0.5% and PPI likely turning positive in Q3. [1][3][4] Industry Focus - Industries that may benefit from the positive PPI include resource-related sectors and raw materials, while the technology sector's valuations are no longer seen as advantageous. [1][4] U.S. Stock Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market is expected to experience a rally from May to August 2026, potentially boosting related sectors such as computing power. However, the main focus remains on the implications of PPI turning positive. [1][6] PPI Impact on Industries - Positive PPI is expected to favor industries such as construction materials, non-ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals, while sectors like machinery, automotive, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and home appliances show strong alpha correlation but weak beta correlation. [1][7][8] Currency Exchange Rate - The Chinese yuan is projected to appreciate significantly, with the effective exchange rate expected to return to levels seen at the end of 2024. This appreciation will benefit yuan-denominated assets, including Hong Kong stocks. [1][9] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks are increasing due to the disintegration of the old international order, U.S. strategic adjustments, and rising global political uncertainties. Key areas of concern include the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the situation in Iran, and developments in U.S.-China relations. [1][10][11] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content Specific Industry Dynamics - The relationship between PPI and various industries has shifted, with some sectors like real estate losing their previous correlation with PPI, while others have become more competitive due to changes in consumer behavior and market dynamics. [1][7][8] Recent Developments in Geopolitical Situations - The situation in Greenland has shown signs of easing, with diplomatic negotiations taking precedence over military threats. However, tensions remain in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. [10][11][12][14] U.S.-China Relations - Recent developments indicate a potential stabilization in U.S.-China relations, with high-level diplomatic engagements expected to continue throughout the year. [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is expected to benefit the food and beverage sector through reduced import costs, improved domestic demand, and increased foreign investment allocation [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Developments - The RMB has accelerated its appreciation, breaking the 7 mark offshore on December 25 and reaching 6.96 onshore by January 22, indicating enhanced economic momentum and improved export competitiveness [1]. - Historical analysis shows that during previous RMB appreciation cycles (May-November 2020 and November-December 2022), the food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 18% and 12%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Cost, Demand, and Valuation Dynamics - Cost: The appreciation of the RMB reduces the converted prices of imported raw materials, leading to lower manufacturing costs and improved profitability. Key raw materials affected include soybeans, palm oil, oats, barley, and tree nuts [2]. - Demand: The recovery of domestic demand is a fundamental support for the strong RMB, which will further lower companies' restocking costs, shifting the industry from passive destocking to active restocking, thus reinforcing demand resilience [2]. - Valuation: The liquidity remains ample during the RMB appreciation cycle, enhancing the inflow of foreign capital into A-shares, which is expected to bring liquidity premiums to the food and beverage sector, known for its high foreign ownership [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report highlights three main lines of focus for investment: 1. Cost benefits, recommending companies such as Ximai Food, Lihigh Food, Miaokelando, Qiaqia Food, and H&H [3]. 2. Demand recovery, recommending companies like Anjijia Food, Qianwei Central Kitchen, Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, New Dairy, and Wancheng Group [3]. 3. Valuation recovery, recommending companies including Yili Group, Mengniu Dairy, Xianle Health, Weilong Delicious, and Yanjinpuzi [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" in shaping China's economic development, focusing on high-quality growth and the well-being of the population [4][7] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" highlights two main pushes: achieving effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth, and promoting comprehensive human development and common prosperity for all [4][7] - The article outlines four key aspects of human-centered development in the "15th Five-Year Plan," including investing in human capital, aligning industry development with evolving consumer needs, urbanization as a means of optimizing resource allocation, and enhancing living standards to achieve common prosperity [5][6][7] Group 2 - The article discusses the integration of stock and incremental policies, emphasizing the need for a more proactive macroeconomic policy in 2026, which includes evaluating the consistency of various economic and non-economic policies [8][11] - It highlights the significant potential of existing fiscal deposits, which have fluctuated between -200 billion and +600 billion annually over the past two decades, with a notable increase in 2025, indicating underutilization of fiscal resources [9] - The article also points out the substantial policy space within state-owned assets, with total assets exceeding 400 trillion and liabilities around 260 trillion, suggesting that liquidity issues need to be addressed to activate these assets effectively [10] Group 3 - The article provides an analysis of the expected trend of the RMB exchange rate in 2026, with a general consensus on appreciation, but notes that this must be accompanied by policies to expand domestic demand [13][15] - It discusses the impact of geopolitical factors, particularly Sino-U.S. relations, on the undervaluation of the RMB, indicating that improving these relations could lead to a correction in the exchange rate [14][15] - The article concludes that the current exchange rate is primarily determined by market supply and demand, with geopolitical influences playing a significant role, and anticipates a favorable environment for RMB appreciation in 2026 [15]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 财经五月花 摘 要 中国从外贸角度，需要寻找新动能，即发力非美市场；从国内经济角度，同样需要寻找新动能，即培育 非地产的增长拉动因素 文|顾欣宇 编辑|张威 北京时间2026年1月20日，在高盛2026年中国宏观经济及资本市场动态展望媒体交流圆桌会上，高盛首 席中国经济学家闪辉预计，2026年中国实际国内生产总值（GDP）增速为4.8%，高于4.5%的市场共识 预测。她强调，中国从外贸角度，需要寻找新动能，即发力非美市场；从国内经济角度，同样需要寻找 新动能，即培育非地产的增长拉动因素。 闪辉表示，近年来，中国经济的两个重要领域（贸易和房地产）发生了重大变化。在贸易方面，中国在 美国总进口中的份额从2000年开始一直到2024年之后发生了大的转换。2000年中国占美国所有进口的比 例是7.5%。中国进入了世界贸易组织（WTO）之后，这条线一路往上走，最高的时候超过了20%。两 次贸易战之后，这个数字又回到了7.5%的位置。房地产的新开工率方面，从2000年到2020年，房地产 高歌猛进，但是2020年之后新房开工率的数字掉得非常厉害，在2024 ...

北京商报讯（记者 刘四红）2026年1月19日，人民币对美元中间价报7.0051，调升27个基点。前一交易 日中间价报7.0078。 Wind数据显示，截至当日9时34分，在岸人民币对美元汇率报6.9646，日内升值0.07%；离岸人民币对 美元汇率报6.9612，日内升值0.09%。 ...