本文来自格隆汇专栏：国泰海通证券研究；作者：刘一鸣、张予名 报告导读：总量上看，8月国产重卡销量9.2万台，同比增长47%，环比增长8%。聚焦天然气重卡，8月 国产天然气重卡销量1.6万台，同比增长32%，环比增长30%。 风险提示：经济发展不及预期，原材料价格大幅上涨。 注：以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的研究报告《8月重卡同比五连增，天然气迎来复苏》；报告 作者： 刘一鸣 S0880525040050，张予名 S0880125042241 总量上看，8月国产重卡销量9.2万台，同比增长47%，环比增长8%。1-8月国产重卡累计销量71.6万台， 同比增长15%。我们认为，8月重卡总量的维持较高增长，一是去年同期基数较低，二是从五月中下旬 直至八月，"以旧换新"政策对重卡新车市场保持了较为稳定的促进作用，进而推动了重卡行业连续五个 月的同比快速增长。其中，电动重卡高歌猛进，同比继续呈现爆发式增长；天然气重卡逆转颓势，在连 续五个月同比下滑后迎来了复苏。 从销量结构上看，2025年8月半挂牵引车/载货车/非完整车辆销量占重卡整体的比例分别为 50.6%/27.8%/21.7%，此前2024年为51.9%/2 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，随着经济恢复，以及2025年重卡"以旧换新"政策的推出，国 产重卡销量有望逐渐回升，预计2025年销量为106.7万台，同比增长18%。近年来，国产新能源重卡技 术逐渐成熟，成本快速下降，预计国内新能源渗透率有比较大的提升空间，预计2025年渗透率将达到 15%。重卡行业的成长空间仍然存在，具体体现在国内的景气度修复，以及出口的持续成长。此外随着 天然气重卡的发展，行业门槛提升有望带动头部企业盈利能力提升。 聚焦天然气重卡，8月国产天然气重卡销量1.6万台，同比增长32%，环比增长30%。1-8月国产天然气 重卡累计销量11.6万台，同比下滑9%。天然气半挂牵引车：8月国产天然气半挂牵引车销量1.5万台，同 比增长33%，环比增长32%。1-8月国产天然气半挂牵引车累计销量11.2万台，同比下滑10%。8月重卡 的天然气渗透率为17%，半挂牵引车的天然气渗透率为32%。根据对重卡全生命周期成本的测算，对于 年度平均行驶里程大于15万公里的牵引车而言，大部分时间段使用天然气是较为经济的。在大规模设备 更新政策的推动下，天然气重卡作为使用成本较低的设备，其渗透率有望进一步提 ...

报告导读： 总量上看， 8 月国产重卡销量 9.2 万台，同比增长 47% ，环比增长 8% 。 聚焦天然气重卡， 8 月国产天然气重卡销量 1.6 万台，同比增长 32% ，环比增长 30% 投资策略与建议： 随着经济恢复，以及 2025 年重卡"以旧换新"政策的推出，我们认为国产重卡销量有望逐渐回升，预计 2025 年销量为 106.7 万台，同 比增长 18% 。近年来，国产新能源重卡技术逐渐成熟，成本快速下降，我们预计国内新能源渗透率有比较大的提升空间，预计 2025 年渗透率将达到 15% 。 我们认为重卡行业的成长空间仍然存在，具体体现在国内的景气度修复，以及出口的持续成长。此外随着天然气重卡的发展，我们认为行业门槛提升有望 带动头部企业盈利能力提升。 总量上看， 8 月国产重卡销量 9.2 万台，同比增长 47% ，环比增长 8% 。 1-8 月国产重卡累计销量 71.6 万台，同比增长 15% 。我们认为， 8 月重卡 总量的维持较高增长，一是去年同期基数较低，二是从五月中下旬直至八月，"以旧换新"政策对重卡新车市场保持了较为稳定的促进作用，进而推动了重卡行 业连续五个月的同比快速增长。其中， ...

8 月重卡同比五连增，天然气迎来复苏 [Table_Industry] 汽车 2025 年 8 月重卡行业月报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 张予名(研究助理) | 021-23154145 | zhangyuming@gtht.com | S0880125042241 | 本报告导读： 总量上看，8 月国产重卡销量 9.2 万台，同比增长 47%，环比增长 8%。聚焦天然气 重卡，8 月国产天然气重卡销量 1.6 万台，同比增长 32%，环比增长 30%。 汽车《优必选获新订单，特斯拉发布第四篇章》 2025.09.08 股 票 研 究 究 报 告 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 汽车《国内乘用车市场价格战持续放缓》 2025.09.21 汽车《L2 强标开启征求意见，智驾商业化更进一 步》2025.09.18 汽车《《汽车行业稳增长工作方案》发布，推动汽 ...

Group 1 - The "old-for-new" policy has been adjusted in at least 19 provinces and cities since July, primarily to smooth the use of subsidy funds, with a total of 690 billion yuan allocated for the third batch of subsidies [2][10][12] - Most provinces and cities have implemented limit management on subsidy amounts, with 16 out of 19 provinces mentioning this, such as Shanxi's daily allocation for various categories [3][11] - Some provinces have reduced subsidy standards, like Guizhou, which lowered the subsidy for purchasing new energy vehicles from 16% to 10% [3][11] Group 2 - The Huachuang Macro WEI index remains high at 7.53% as of September 14, indicating an upward trend in economic activity [4][16] - Real estate sales have shown an increase, with a 15% year-on-year growth in housing transactions in 67 cities as of September 19 [4][23] - Retail sales of passenger cars have maintained low growth, with a year-on-year increase of only 1% in the second week of September [5][23] Group 3 - The construction sector shows fluctuations, with asphalt plant operating rates at 34.4%, up 8.5% year-on-year [5][26] - The average land premium rate remains low at 3.75% for the first two weeks of September [5][23] - The port container throughput remains high, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.9% as of September 14 [5][35] Group 4 - The central government is addressing "involution" issues, emphasizing the need to regulate low-price competition among enterprises [5][27] - The automotive industry has introduced a stable growth plan, focusing on controlling payment terms [5][27] - Various industries, including coal and steel, are under scrutiny for capacity management and compliance with regulations [5][27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the passenger car market in China, indicating a stable retail trend in September 2025 compared to previous years, with a slight year-on-year growth [1][5] - From September 1 to 21, 2025, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.191 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1% and an 8% increase compared to the previous month [1][5] - The cumulative retail sales for the year reached 15.955 million units, reflecting a 9% year-on-year growth [1][5] Group 2 - The retail sales of new energy vehicles from September 1 to 21, 2025, amounted to 697,000 units, marking a 10% year-on-year increase and an 11% increase from the previous month [1][5] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 58.5%, with cumulative retail sales for the year at 8.267 million units, a 24% year-on-year increase [1][5] - The article notes that the market is entering the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," with various local subsidies encouraging consumer purchases [5] Group 3 - The wholesale performance of passenger cars from September 1 to 21, 2025, showed 1.307 million units sold, a 0% year-on-year change and a 16% increase from the previous month [9] - Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 19.349 million units, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth [9] - The article discusses the cautious approach of manufacturers in increasing domestic sales while maintaining price stability and reducing dealer inventory pressure [9]

消息面上，据第一商用车网数据，8月重卡批发销量达到约8.7万辆，同比大增约40%，环比7月上涨 2%，仅次于2020年8月的13万辆，是近八年来同期的第二高位。开源证券认为，终端重卡销量在行业传 统淡季的8月份的同比增速约50%，体现了重卡销量受政策催化的敏感性，充分体现"以旧换新"政策对 重卡销量的显著拉动作用.随着金九银十的到来，以及年底政策申请时间逐步紧迫，销量将有望迎来下 一波小高潮。 中信建投（601066）指出，目前重卡补贴政策在全国范围内基本落地完毕，Q3终端需求有望继续扩 张，释放批发端销量弹性，叠加上年基数偏低，同比增速有望进一步上行。全年来看补贴有望撬动10- 15万台增量，行业年销或可达100-105万台，实现双位数增长；重汽A在海外市场借助重汽国际公司的 完善网络布局以及高效战略突破，出口有望维持较高水平。整体看，中国重汽作为行业龙头，Q3内 销、出口有望共振向上，实现业绩、估值双提升。 中国重汽（000951）(03808)午后涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.13%，报22.12港元，成交额1.37亿港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国重汽(03808)午后涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.13%，报22.12港元，成交额1.37亿港 元。 消息面上，据第一商用车网数据，8月重卡批发销量达到约8.7万辆，同比大增约40%，环比7月上涨 2%，仅次于2020年8月的13万辆，是近八年来同期的第二高位。开源证券认为，终端重卡销量在行业传 统淡季的 8 月份的同比增速约 50%，体现了重卡销量受政策催化的敏感性，充分体现"以旧换新"政策对 重卡销量的显著拉动作用.随着金九银十的到来，以及年底政策申请时间逐步紧迫，销量将有望迎来下 一波小高潮。 中信建投指出，目前重卡补贴政策在全国范围内基本落地完毕，Q3终端需求有望继续扩张，释放批发 端销量弹性，叠加上年基数偏低，同比增速有望进一步上行。全年来看补贴有望撬动10-15万台增量， 行业年销或可达100-105万台，实现双位数增长；重汽A在海外市场借助重汽国际公司的完善网络布局 以及高效战略突破，出口有望维持较高水平。整体看，中国重汽作为行业龙头，Q3内销、出口有望共 振向上，实现业绩、估值双提升。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the implementation of China's fiscal policy through the issuance of long-term special bonds to support the "old-for-new" policy, which aims to stimulate consumption and upgrade consumer goods [1][6] Special Bonds and Fund Allocation - In 2025, the government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in special long-term bonds, with 300 billion yuan specifically allocated for the "old-for-new" policy [2] - The Ministry of Finance has been distributing funds in batches since the beginning of the year, with a total of 2.3 trillion yuan allocated by the end of Q3, ensuring support for peak consumption periods like "Double 11" and "Double 12" [2] Policy Implementation Status - The rapid consumption of national subsidy funds in the first half of the year led to a surge in the "old-for-new" policy, although some regions faced funding shortages and temporary suspensions [3] - Local governments have implemented measures such as scheduled, limited, and lottery-based distribution to manage fund allocation effectively [3] Structural Effects and Consumption Boost - The scope and standards of the "old-for-new" policy have expanded, now covering 12 categories of household appliances and including digital products like smartphones and tablets [4] - From January to May, retail sales growth was maintained at 5.0%, significantly higher than the same period last year, indicating the rapid and effective transmission of policy stimuli [4] Marginal Effects and Future Outlook - Since June, retail sales growth has slowed due to rapid fund consumption and high base effects from the previous year, with growth rates dropping to 4.8%, 3.7%, and 3.4% from June to August [5] - Despite the diminishing marginal effects of subsidies, retail sales are expected to maintain moderate growth in the second half of the year, supported by the final batch of funds and the year-end consumption peak [5] Summary - The "old-for-new" policy in 2025 has achieved its goals of "funds in place, effects visible, and structural optimization," effectively stimulating durable goods consumption and promoting a shift towards greener and smarter consumption [6] - The sustainability of consumption recovery in the long term will depend on improvements in household income and consumer confidence, indicating that while the subsidy policy provides temporary support, a transition to genuine consumption growth requires stable income and employment [6]

Core Insights - Qinghai Province's retail sales of consumer goods have shown a month-on-month increase, surpassing the national average growth rate for two consecutive months [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - From January to August, Qinghai Province achieved a total retail sales volume of 68.339 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, exceeding the national growth rate by 0.5 percentage points [1] - In August alone, the retail sales reached 10.614 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, which is 2.7 percentage points higher than the national average [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The "trade-in" policy has played a significant role in supporting retail growth, with retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, building and decoration materials, and communication equipment increasing by 63.4%, 12.9%, and 7.5% respectively from January to August, outpacing the overall retail sales growth [1] - Retail sales of automobiles in the above-limit units increased by 20% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the growth of retail sales [1] Group 3: Consumer Trends - There is a strong demand for smart and green consumption, with retail sales of smart home appliances and audio-visual equipment, as well as wearable smart devices, increasing by 100.7% and 132.9% respectively from January to August [1] - Retail sales of new energy vehicles saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 95.4% [1]