Core Insights - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 2025 is expected to remain flat compared to the previous year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline by 2.6% [1] Group 1: CPI Analysis - CPI has shown a continuous recovery for four months, reaching a new high since March 2023, with core CPI maintaining above 1% for the same duration [1] - Prices of core goods such as household appliances and gold jewelry continue to exhibit strength [1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - PPI has increased for three consecutive months, with an expanding growth rate, primarily driven by the non-ferrous and "anti-involution" industries [1] - Prices in the oil and petrochemical industry chain continue to decline [1] Group 3: 2026 Outlook - For 2026, the report anticipates a continuation of the price recovery trend observed in the latter half of 2025, influenced by recent commodity price movements and the "replacement basket" effect [1] - Core CPI is expected to remain strong, with a projected year-on-year central tendency of around 0.7%, driven by policies such as trade-in programs, narrowing rental declines, and rising gold and service prices [1] - Assuming the central price of London gold is $4,500 per ounce, gold jewelry is expected to contribute approximately 0.3% to the CPI in 2026 [1] - PPI is projected to have a year-on-year central tendency of around -0.4%, supported by demand in coal, steel, lithium carbonate, and copper due to "anti-involution," energy storage needs, and AI-related demand [1]

转自：北京日报客户端 2025年12月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%；2024年至2025年以旧换 新政策带动消费品销售额3.92万亿元，惠及消费者4.94亿人次；2025年我国邮政行业寄递业务量完成 2165亿件，同比增长11.5%……本周，这些数据最值得关注！ 2165z4 2025年,我国邮政行业寄递业务量 完 成 2165 亿 件 , 同 比 增 长 11.5%。其中,快递业务量完成 1990亿件,同比增长13.7%。 权威数读 一周"靓" 权威数读 / 新华社 alther 4 120 权威数读│一周"靓"数 45.88亿人次 2025年,全国铁路完成旅客发送量 45.88亿人次,同比增长6.4%; 完成货物发送量52.73亿吨，同比 增长2.0%。 权威数读 / 新华社 ATT 权威数读│一周"靓"数 8-321x 9 5 亿 截至2025年,我国航空总人口超5 亿,我国成为全球第一航空人口大 国。 权威数读 / 制华社 AD in " 到1.6% 1.5% 4.94亿人次 2024年至2025年,我国实现汽车 以旧换新1830万辆,其中新能源汽 车占比近60 ...

央视网消息：随着以旧换新政策的持续，安徽不少区域市场的消费再掀热潮。政策实施以来，汽车、家电、数码智能产品等多领域换新活 动全面铺开，让消费者享受到了实惠。 在安徽芜湖湾沚区的一家汽车专卖店的展厅内，新款新能源车型整齐陈列，市民胡静正带着家人挑选心仪的车型。得知"国补"政策开始实施， 她一大早就赶到店里咨询以旧换新补贴政策，销售人员耐心细致地讲解补贴标准、申领流程及车型优势。 2026年汽车以旧换新政策"上新" 芜湖市湾沚区居民胡静表示，一直以来，她都想换一辆新能源电车，听说2026年的"国补"力度不小，就赶紧和家人一起过来看看，算上"国 补"厂家优惠和置换补贴，算下来能省2万多元左右。 在安徽宿州市一家新能源汽车销售门店里，市民欧女士表示，自己手中的一辆2013年购买的旧车正准备更换。 宿州市民欧盼盼表示，她观望也很久了，刚好现在新政策出来，大概能省12000元（报废补贴），12000元再加上一些置换补贴，又能省下 15000元。 据了解，随着"国补"等以旧换新政策的全面铺开，从线下体验到线上下单，集"政府补、企业让、消费者得实惠"于一体的促消费模式，正推动 形成更新换代的良性循环。 汽车以旧换新中，新能源 ...

华泰证券研报称，12月CPI同比较11月的0.7%进一步回升至0.8%，全年CPI同比较24年的0.2%略回落至 0%。12月食品价格延续改善，核心CPI环比回升至0.2%、同比持平于11月的1.2%，金饰在内的工业消 费品持续对核心CPI同比形成支撑。1月高频指标显示工业品价格呈现加速上涨，可能受供给侧约束、 信贷投放及财政支出"开门红"预期的提振。元旦假期出游人次同比大幅增长且半径扩大，亦有望对服务 业价格形成提振，整体价格回升的持续性仍需关注今年一季度财政扩张力度实际效果。此外，2026年以 旧换新政策对消费品的补贴支持延续、且范围有所优化，不排除服务消费有望得到额外支持，对需求侧 形成托举。 ...

2026年车市销量增长将承压。 1月9日，中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会（乘联分会）发布的数据显示，2025年12月全国乘 用车市场零售226.1万辆，同比下降14%，环比增长1.6%。2025年以来累计零售2374.4万辆，同比增长 3.8%；全年乘用车厂商批发2955.4万辆，同比增长8.8%。 乘联分会秘书长崔东树指出，去年第四季度销量走平，是中国汽车市场历年来都罕见的走势，这体现出 了"两新政策"对车市的强烈影响。在政策的推动下，消费者在第四季度前积极购车，而各地补贴力度在 10月收缩或暂停，明显体现在了第四季度的销量数据上。 此外，崔东树介绍，去年第四季度，汽车厂家也更为理性，并没有对经销商施加过多销售压力。同时， 新车批量上市，叠加"反内卷"工作推进遏制了无序降价，12月新能源促销保持在10%左右，没有出现明 显的以价换量走势，这也在一定程度上促成了第四季度车市走平。 新能源汽车方面，新能源汽车免征购置税政策到期，对销量带来了明显的拉动效果。 数据显示，2025年12月新能源乘用车零售133.7万辆，同比增长2.6%，环比增长1.2%；12月新能源车在 国内总体乘用车的零售渗透率59.1% ...

联合新闻网近日发文称，为刺激内需，中国内地2025年安排人民币3000亿元超长期特别国债资金，用于支持消费 品"以旧换新"政策，也就是民众口中的"国补"。据官方公布数据显示，"国补"政策全年带动相关商品销售额超过人民 币2.6兆元，惠及超过3.6亿人次。 【环球网财经综合报道】日前，商务部等九部门联合发文实施绿色消费推进行动，从丰富绿色产品供给、提升绿色服 务消费、创新绿色消费模式等7方面20条具体举措。支持消费者购买新能源汽车。鼓励购买获得绿色产品认证的绿色 智能家电产品、无氟空调等。 报道还提到，"以旧换新"政策自2024年9月全面实施以来，已累计发放直达消费者的补贴超过4.8亿份。2025年每卖出2 辆家用新车，就有1辆享受了汽车以旧换新补贴。该政策也让更多消费者选择到店体验购物并享受补贴，家电以旧换 新线下实体门店较为集聚的商圈，周边1公里范围内相关商户消费额增长超30%。 此外，2026年将继续推动消费品"以旧换新"政策，首批625亿元人民币超长期特别国债已在2025年12月30日公告下 达。 ...

央视网消息（新闻联播）：记者从商务部了解到，自2024年消费品以旧换新政策实施以来，相关商品销售额达3.92万亿元，惠及4.94亿人次。其中，汽 车以旧换新超1830万辆，家电以旧换新超1.92亿件，手机等数码产品购新超9100万部。 与此同时，更多消费者选择到店体验购物并享受补贴，联动产生休闲娱乐、餐饮等跨场景消费。相关机构数据显示，家电以旧换新线下门店较为集聚的 商圈，周边1公里范围内相关商户消费额增长超30%。 以旧换新牵引产业提质升级。汽车以旧换新中，新能源汽车占比近60%，带动国内新能源乘用车市场销量翻倍增长；家电以旧换新中，一级能效产品占 比超90%；手机等数码产品购新中，中高端机型销量占比达72.5%。 一大批绿色、低碳、智能的新产品进入百姓生活，不断提高人民生活品质的同时，也在促进经济绿色转型。两年来，报废汽车回收量平均增长超45%， 减少碳排放约4400万吨。 ...

乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文称，2025年的常规燃油车和混合动力的促销压力较小，而新能源的促销相 对激烈，今年插电混合动力促销波动较大，12月同比上升3.9个点的促销，环比降0.4个百分点；增程车 型总体较2024年12月增加4.5个点左右的促销。纯电动总体较2024年12月增加1.1个点左右的促销，较 上月增0.4个点左右的促销。国家以旧换新政策效果突出，市场销量增长，内卷降价现象明显减弱，行 业运行压力改善，1-11月的汽车行业利润率回升到4.4%的中低位，这也是行业规模上升和价格促销趋 稳的良好表现。 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The home appliance and light industry in 2026 should focus on four investment themes: domestic demand supported by old-for-new policies, supply-side improvements in the power bank industry, and the rise of niche consumer products in service consumption [1] - The white goods sector is expected to benefit from the old-for-new policy, with a significant increase in consumer spending projected [44] - The overall performance of the light industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a cumulative increase of 24.68% from January to December 2025 [12][15] Group 2: Key Companies - Midea Group is developing a second growth curve through its B-end business, particularly in data center liquid cooling, which shows significant potential [2] - Haier Smart Home is enhancing its operational system through a data-driven approach, improving competitiveness across product, cost, and supply chain [2] - TCL Electronics and other companies in the black goods sector have shown strong performance, benefiting from the old-for-new subsidy policy [21] Group 3: Market Trends - The power bank industry is expected to see improved market conditions due to new regulations, which will raise industry standards and potentially eliminate many low-quality brands [2] - The "Guzi economy" is tapping into emotional consumption needs, with domestic IP supply increasing and consumer spending on IP expected to grow significantly [3] - The folding bicycle market is transitioning from niche to mainstream, with significant growth potential driven by urban mobility needs [3] Group 4: Export and New Markets - The export chain is gradually recovering from tariff disruptions, with a focus on companies that have strong overseas production capabilities to mitigate tariff risks [3] - New product categories, such as pool cleaning robots, have substantial growth potential, with Chinese companies expected to increase their market share [3] - Emerging markets in Africa and Latin America present new opportunities for multinational hygiene product companies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is at a critical juncture in the transition towards electric and intelligent vehicles, with three distinct industry curves coexisting: traditional fuel vehicles, electric intelligent vehicles, and future industries represented by autonomous driving. The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal turning point for the industry, characterized by structural transformation driven by policy, market growth, technological breakthroughs, and global competition [1]. Group 1: Trends in the Automotive Industry - Trend 1: The "old-for-new" policy is expected to become a normalized tool, addressing the growing gap in vehicle replacement as the annual scrappage rate remains significantly lower than new car sales. This policy is projected to enhance market demand and support steady domestic consumption and industrial production [2]. - Trend 2: New automotive players are driving an upgrade in export structure, with Chinese automotive exports experiencing significant growth, becoming a "second growth curve." These companies are shifting from single vehicle exports to localized production, enhancing China's brand value and technological image in the global market [3]. - Trend 3: A clear differentiation is emerging between "mass-market pure electric" and "high-end range-extended" vehicles, with structural changes in market demand as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeds 50%. The mainstream configuration for high-end SUVs/MPVs remains "large battery long-range range-extended" [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - Trend 4: The industry is transitioning to a "late-stage mass market," where consumers prioritize brand reputation, after-sales support, and residual value certainty. Resources are increasingly consolidating around leading technology firms, enhancing conversion efficiency in mainstream price segments [5]. - Trend 5: State-owned enterprises are poised for growth opportunities as regulatory bodies strengthen the assessment of their new energy businesses, driving resources towards electric intelligence. These enterprises hold advantages in manufacturing systems and compliance, particularly in the realm of conditional autonomous driving [6]. - Trend 6: The penetration of new energy commercial vehicles is accelerating, with heavy-duty and light-duty trucks entering a rapid growth phase. The total cost of ownership for heavy trucks is now within a 1.5-2 year recovery period, while urban electric vehicle infrastructure is fully mature [7]. Group 3: Technological Advancements and Future Prospects - Trend 7: High-perception intelligent cockpit configurations are reshaping purchasing decisions, with smart features becoming a core competitive differentiator. The integration of advanced displays and intelligent seating systems is driving a new wave of competition in the market [8]. - Trend 8: Intelligent driving architecture is transitioning to an "end-to-end" model, enhancing the integration of perception and decision-making processes. The "equalization of intelligent driving" is facilitating advanced driving assistance features in lower-priced models [9][10]. - Trend 9: Three major commercial scenarios for autonomous driving are on the verge of mass production, including Robotaxi, mining autonomous vehicles, and unmanned logistics vehicles, with significant cost reductions and operational efficiencies being realized [11]. - Trend 10: Embodied intelligence is approaching mass production, with humanoid robots transitioning to dual-core intelligence. The automotive industry is well-suited for this technology due to the high degree of technical reuse, with several manufacturers planning to launch production in 2025 [12]. Overall, the Chinese automotive industry is expected to exhibit characteristics of multiple technological pathways, market structure differentiation, and accelerated intelligence implementation, supported by policy guidance and technological innovation, leading to high-quality development [13].