终端也迅速同步回涨。综合来看，全国多地线下门店反馈终端价回升至1750元以上，部分大型酒水连锁报价更是达到1800元左右。 酒价反弹迅速传导至资本市场。 12月15日白酒板块整体回暖，作为板块龙头的贵州茅台股价较前一交易日上涨0.38%，市值在板块内继续保持绝对领先地位。受其带动，多家酒企股价同 步上涨，部分白酒个股涨幅超过2%，茅台作为龙头的引领效应再次凸显。 酒价反弹与股价回暖背后，是茅台作为白酒行业龙头和A股消费板块核心资产的多重价值回归。 茅台酒的市场价格，近期呈现鲜明的企稳反弹态势。 前不久召开的中央经济工作会议明确提出"着力扩大国内需求，把恢复和扩大消费摆在优先位置"，为2026年大力发展内需、提振消费定下了积极主基调。 12月13日、14日，53度飞天茅台批发价从阶段性低位迅速回升，多家第三方平台的报价迅速上涨40元至80元不等，短短两日内涨幅超过5%，一些酒商更 是一个周末提价上百元。 在这样的政策背景下，近期茅台也在就来年渠道、产品、价格等方面的经营思路与各地经销商进行沟通，初步确定将以解决供需适配问题、加强渠道韧性 的市场化为主线，详细政策预计将在本月底的渠道商联谊会上明确。 政策释放利好 ...

茅台酒的市场价格，近期呈现鲜明的企稳反弹态势。 1 2月1 3日、1 4日，5 3度飞天茅台批发价从阶段性低位迅速回升，多家第三方平台的报价迅 速上涨4 0元至8 0元不等，短短两日内涨幅超过5%，一些酒商更是一个周末提价上百元。 终端也迅速同步回涨。综合来看，全国多地线下门店反馈终端价回升至1 7 5 0元以上，部分 大型酒水连锁报价更是达到1 8 0 0元左右。 酒价反弹迅速传导至资本市场。 1 2月1 5日白酒板块整体回暖，作为板块龙头的贵州茅台股价较前一交易日上涨0 . 3 8%，市 值在板块内继续保持绝对领先地位。受其带动，多家酒企股价同步上涨，部分白酒个股涨 幅超过2%，茅台作为龙头的引领效应再次凸显。 近两年来，在茅台管理层积极推进供需适配、扩大消费者触达面的努力下，茅台产品在好 友相聚、家庭团圆、圈层交流等大众消费场景的出现频率明显提升，经销商库存周转情况 稳中向好。 酒价反弹与股价回暖背后，是茅台作为白酒行业龙头和A股消费板块核心资产的多重价值 回归。 前不久召开的中央经济工作会议明确提出"着力扩大国内需求，把恢复和扩大消费摆在优先 位置"，为2 0 2 6年大力发展内需、提振消费定下了积极 ...

食品饮料行业 2026 年投资策略：需求多元、供给升级， 大众消费的嬗变与曙光 20251214 摘要 2025 年食品饮料板块表现不佳，同比下跌 8.1%，受内需疲弱和限酒令 影响。但大众品龙头企业展现韧性，通过适应新渠道和差异化产品，前 三季度收入增长 4.5%，利润增长 2.3%。 食品饮料行业估值偏低，绝对估值约 20 倍 PE，相对于沪深 300 指数溢 价 50%，接近 2013-2014 年水平。交易量快速下行，四季度降至 1.4%，反映行业压力增大，但也存在价值回归机会。 2026 年投资策略侧重自下而上，关注白酒板块的右侧信号和困境反转 公司。推荐东鹏、卫龙、茅台、安井、洽洽、洋河、千禾味业等，以及 餐饮供应链上下游公司的机会。 大众品板块未来发展在于适应现代消费模式，渠道变革加速，包括传统 零售调整、O2O 融合和即时零售。企业需优化渠道体系，把握新零售机 会，关注合作模式变化。 预计 2026 年消费者信心提升，消费特征从极致比价回归高质价比。企 业应进行产品及服务高质价比改造，关注无糖茶、功能饮料等高景气品 种，以及酒水餐饮困境反转机会。 2025 年食品饮料板块的整体表现如何？ 20 ...

Core Insights - The forum "Trends Above, Faith Below" focused on new consumption trends and market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of brand value resonance with consumers in a rational consumption environment [1] Group 1: Consumer Behavior - The shift from "cost-performance" to "value recognition" reflects deeper consumer needs, where consumers are willing to pay for products they resonate with [3] - An example shared highlighted that consumers may value a product not just for its utility but for the emotional connection it provides, as seen with a product that brought joy due to its design [3] Group 2: Innovation in Traditional Industries - Innovation is not exclusive to high-tech sectors; traditional industries can achieve significant advancements through new processes, termed as "new processes reshaping old experiences" [4] - The company has invested in innovative cooking processes for its products, demonstrating a commitment to quality despite initial cost concerns [4] Group 3: Marketing and Product Quality - The essence of marketing lies in the quality of the product itself, with the company emphasizing that all marketing efforts should circle back to product excellence [4] - The company fosters a culture of "allowing trial and error," which encourages innovation and acknowledges that mistakes are part of the process [4] - The philosophy of "slow is fast" in the beverage industry suggests that thoroughness and quality should take precedence over speed in product development [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of aligning A-share market investments with the "14th Five-Year Plan" policy guidance, focusing on opportunities arising from global monetary easing and industrial upgrades [1] - Three main investment themes are identified: 1) Technology innovation led by artificial intelligence; 2) Digital transformation of traditional industries through "AI+"; 3) Value recovery through investment in human capital to boost consumption [1] - The dual drivers of technology and cyclical industries are expected to continue, with relative profitability and economic advantages in technology likely to persist amid a global tech cycle [1] Group 2 - External demand for Chinese exports may face pressure due to tariff disturbances, low global economic growth, and stricter regulations on transshipment trade, but structural advantages in Chinese manufacturing are expected to support stable growth in exports [2] - Four incremental opportunities for external demand in 2026 are identified: 1) Structural support from the "re-industrialization" demand in emerging markets; 2) Gradual realization of competitive advantages in Chinese manufacturing; 3) Domestic industrial and value chain upgrades driven by overseas expansion; 4) Growth potential in service trade under focused policies [2]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 09 日 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -13% -7% -1% 5% 10% 16% 22% 28% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.12 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | 上证指数 | | 3,924.08 | | 0.54 | | 深证成指 | | 13,329.99 | | 1.39 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,621.75 | | 0.81 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,49 ...

Core Insights - The price of Moutai has significantly dropped, with the group purchase price on Pinduoduo at 1499 yuan, breaking a psychological barrier that has been reinforced over the past decade [1] - The wholesale price of boxed Moutai fell over 50 yuan in a single day to 1640 yuan, and the price of individual bottles has decreased nearly 30% compared to the same period last year [1] - The decline in prices is attributed to a collective disappearance of consumption scenarios, with a sharp drop in the opening rate of bottles to 22% [1] Market Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship has fundamentally reversed, with Moutai's base liquor production reaching 56,000 tons in 2022, leading to a market inventory nearing 800 million bottles [1] - The direct sales model of the iMoutai app has exposed previously hidden inventory, undermining the narrative of scarcity [1] - Data shows that Gen Z's consumption of liquor has declined by 15% for two consecutive years, with a preference for craft beer over high-end liquor [1] Financial Implications - The financial attributes of Moutai have diminished, with an increase in the auction failure rate of old liquor by 20% and a significant price gap between the payment price and market price for certain products [3] - The entire liquor industry is undergoing a value reassessment, with major brands like Wuliangye and Yanghe experiencing significant profit declines [3] - The current market turbulence is driven more by structural changes in consumer habits rather than policy-driven adjustments, leading to a redefinition of Moutai's value [3] Future Outlook - Moutai has instructed distributors not to sell below 1700 yuan, but market dynamics may override these policies [3] - The luxury status of Moutai may diminish, potentially returning to its essence as a complex distilled spirit rather than a financial product [3] - Speculators holding inventory in anticipation of price increases may face significant losses as market conditions evolve [3]

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to maintain a stable upward trend in 2026, driven by undervaluation and catalysts that could further enhance overall valuations [3][4] - Key recommendations include companies like 3SBio, Eucure Biopharma, and BeiGene, which have rich catalysts and limited impact from centralized procurement [4] - The focus will shift back to fundamentals and valuations, particularly for stocks that are currently undervalued with expected positive fundamental differences [3][4] Group 2: Real Estate Industry - The real estate sector in mainland China is projected to explore new development models under strong policy support, with expected sales area between 900-950 million square meters and sales value around 10-11 trillion RMB in 2026 [5] - In Hong Kong, key factors for market recovery include improved macro uncertainty, significant policy easing, and the return of fundamental demand drivers, with residential rental levels expected to grow by approximately 3% annually [5] - Investment preferences are ranked as state-owned enterprises with low valuations, private sector leaders with land reserves in first and second-tier cities, followed by other private developers [5] Group 3: Retail and Office Market - The retail rental market in Hong Kong is expected to see moderate growth, with community mall rents increasing by about 3-5%, while office vacancy rates have peaked, setting the stage for a rebound in 2026 [7] - The intrinsic value of the Hong Kong physical market is anticipated to gradually release, with New World Development recommended as a high-quality proxy for residential recovery [7]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant restructuring and bubble clearing as of late 2025, with prices of premium products like Moutai dropping below official guidance and high inventory levels leading to widespread losses among distributors [1][3][5] Price Collapse and Inventory Issues - The price system in the liquor industry is experiencing a comprehensive loosening, with Moutai's wholesale price falling below 1600 yuan and e-commerce platforms offering prices as low as 1299 yuan, representing a decline of over 50% from its peak in 2021 [3][5] - This "benchmark effect" has spread across the industry, with major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also seeing significant price drops, leading to over 60% of liquor companies facing price inversions [5][7] - The industry is facing severe inventory issues, with turnover days reaching 900 days and a 300% increase in private inventory circulation, indicating a collapse of speculative buying expectations [5][7] Performance Data - The liquor industry reported its worst quarterly performance in nearly a decade in Q3 2025, with 20 listed companies in A-shares generating a total revenue of 3177.79 billion yuan (down 5.90% year-on-year) and a net profit of 1225.71 billion yuan (down 6.93% year-on-year) [7][9] - Over 80% of companies reported a decline in net profit, with Wuliangye's revenue plummeting by 52% and Yanghe's profit dropping by 158% [7] Changing Consumer Logic - The core issue facing the industry is the failure of traditional growth logic, as government and business consumption models have become ineffective due to strict regulations and economic downturns [9][11] - Younger consumers are increasingly rejecting the traditional liquor culture, leading to a significant decline in white liquor consumption at social events [9][11] - Consumer demand is shifting from a focus on social consumption to a balance of social and personal enjoyment, with new consumption scenarios like casual drinking and home consumption emerging as growth areas [11][12] Strategic Adjustments - Shanxi Fenjiu is one of the few companies maintaining growth, with a revenue increase of 5% in the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to its product advantages and market strategies [15][18] - The company plans to adopt a "dual-line" strategy focusing on traditional markets and expanding into younger and international markets, with new product lines aimed at attracting younger consumers [15][18] Industry Transformation - The liquor industry is transitioning from a focus on investment to a focus on quality, with a projected decline in consumption volume over the next decade [19][20] - Companies are expected to prioritize producing better quality liquor and adapting to changing consumer demands, with a notable increase in the storage of high-quality base liquor [20] - The industry is moving towards a new phase characterized by social drinking, personal enjoyment, and investment collection, necessitating higher standards for product innovation and brand management [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in stock prices of companies like Xiangyang Bearing and Shanghai Construction has been attributed to emotional narratives and social media posts, raising concerns about the irrational behavior of retail investors in the A-share market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Behavior - A social media post from a retail investor seeking financial help for a child's medical expenses led to a rapid increase in Xiangyang Bearing's stock price, which hit the daily limit within minutes [2]. - The stock of Xiangyang Bearing had already experienced a 7% increase in the five days prior to the post, indicating prior institutional involvement [2]. - The phenomenon of emotional narratives influencing stock prices is not unique, as seen in the case of an elderly investor in Shanghai Construction who also experienced a series of price increases due to similar social media support [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - The A-share market is characterized by emotional and speculative trading, often detached from fundamental company performance, leading to irrational price movements [4][5]. - The total number of A-share investors exceeded 240 million by June 2025, with individual investors making up the majority, amplifying the risks associated with non-rational trading behaviors [4]. - The financial performance of companies like Xiangyang Bearing shows a net loss of 27 million yuan, which contradicts the rationale for its stock price increase, highlighting the disconnect between market sentiment and fundamental value [4][5]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Implications - The manipulation of stock prices through emotional appeals poses a risk to the integrity of market resource allocation, necessitating regulatory scrutiny and potential penalties for misleading information [5]. - The reliance on emotional narratives rather than fundamental analysis reflects a lack of maturity in the market, which could exacerbate the dangers of speculative trading [5].