Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF fund (511200) has shown significant performance and growth, indicating a favorable investment environment in the credit bond market as of August 2025 [3][4]. Performance Summary - As of August 6, 2025, the credit bond ETF fund has increased by 0.36% over the past week, ranking first among comparable funds [3]. - The fund's net asset value has risen by 1.14% over the past six months, also leading among comparable funds [3]. - Since its inception, the fund has experienced a maximum drawdown of 1.04%, with a recovery time of 26 days, the fastest among comparable funds [3]. Liquidity and Trading Volume - The fund's trading volume reached 3.34 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 1.62% on August 6, 2025 [3]. - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 98.74 billion yuan [3]. Fund Size and Growth - The credit bond ETF fund has seen a significant increase in size, growing by 16.819 billion yuan over the past three months, ranking first among comparable funds [3]. Fee Structure - The management fee for the credit bond ETF fund is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest among comparable funds [4]. Tracking Accuracy - As of August 6, 2025, the fund's tracking error over the past month was 0.007%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4]. Market Outlook - Analysts predict a stable funding environment in August, with potential for a strong performance in the bond market due to new tax regulations enhancing the attractiveness of credit bond yields [4]. - There is an expectation for a recovery in credit bonds that experienced significant adjustments in late July, particularly focusing on mid-to-low rated bonds with 2-3 year maturities and high-rated bonds with 3-5 year maturities [4]. Fund Composition - The credit bond ETF fund consists of 280 underlying bonds, all AAA-rated and primarily issued by high-quality central state-owned enterprises, covering a range of maturities from 0 to 30 years [4].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.12%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices fell by 0.13% and 0.52% respectively, and the North China 50 Index rose by 0.43% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 1.2062 trillion yuan, an increase of 132.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 160.7 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40% [1] - The yields on major bonds showed slight fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.5 basis points to 1.699%, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield increased by 0.1 basis points to 1.796% [1] - The bond market has experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from a low of 1.64% in early July to a peak of 1.75% at the end of July before retreating [1] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts suggest that despite a hot equity market, the underlying economic fundamentals remain weak, leading to a cautious outlook for the bond market, which is expected to fluctuate within a range of 1.6% to 1.8% for the 10-year government bond yield [2] - The sentiment in the market is more stable compared to the redemption environment of 2022, with institutional views leaning towards a bullish stance [2] - Huaxi Securities indicates that opportunities for a bond bull market are emerging, recommending extending duration positions [3] Strategic Insights - Analysts recommend maintaining a neutral to slightly high duration strategy in the bond market, as recent policy expectations have cooled and economic indicators suggest a weak reality [4] - The current market risk appetite has increased, limiting the potential for significant interest rate declines, while also constraining the upward movement of rates due to the unstable economic fundamentals [4] - The 30-year government bond ETF, launched in March 2024, is highlighted as a significant investment vehicle, tracking the performance of the 30-year government bond index [5]

2 、交易费率低：ETF交易费率低，提高资金使用效率。 3 、持仓透明：ETF每日公布PCF清单，持仓透明。 4 、可进行质押回购：当市场其他资产有投资机会、恰巧手头资金不够充裕时，投资者就可以通过ETF 质押换取资金，来参与其他类资产的投资，到期时再赎回ETF即可。 十年国债ETF（511260）盘中飘红，债市做多情绪高涨。 消息面上，财政部、国家税务总局于2025年8月1日发布公告，宣布自8月8日起对新发行的国债、地方政 府债券、金融债券利息收入恢复征收增值税，采用"新老划断"原则，存量债券继续免税。此外，国家税 务总局明确自然人投资者购买国债等债券月利息收入不超过10万元可享受增值税免征政策，执行期限至 2027年底。 华宝证券指出，债市压力缓释，拐点已现。"反内卷"政策表述边际软化，削弱了市场对通胀上升的预 期。商品期货（如焦煤、多晶硅）近期深度回调缓解了债市恐慌情绪，后续配置盘入场意愿增强。尽管 政府债供给放量，但央行通过逆回购等工具维稳资金面，政策态度明确防止流动性收紧引发债市负反 馈。在结构性压力以及外部关税等不确定性扰动下，利率债有望延续修复。7月底会议虽强调"依法依规 治理企业无序竞争"，但 ...

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has adjusted its price to 123.26 yuan as of August 1, 2025, with a trading volume of 50.09 billion yuan in half a day, indicating active market trading [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 23.284 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception, with the latest share count at 18.9 million, also a record high [1] - The 30-year Treasury ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past nine days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.445 billion yuan, totaling 5.302 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The bond market is currently facing adjustment pressures, but the medium to long-term outlook remains optimistic according to PuYin Wealth Management, which believes that the fundamental support for the bond market has not changed [1] - The bond market sentiment has improved, with the 10-year Treasury yield returning to around 1.7%, and the pressure from institutional redemptions has not persisted for long [2] - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year government bonds, serving as a benchmark for investments in this category [2]

理性来看，其实近期每次大调，可能都是逆向操作的机会。短期债市更为担心的，可能还是工业品快速 涨价带来的PPI同比上行，以及由此引发的通胀担忧。首先，今年末PPI同比回到0附近，还有一些难 度。参考2015-16供给侧改革，在供给和需求政策配合下，2016全年PPI环比平均值为0.45%，且呈前低 后高。其次，自2012年以来，国内PPI向CPI的传导明显走弱，在需求端真正提振以前，夹在二者传导链 之间的中下游企业利润往往会大幅压缩，PPI同比独立上升反倒可能成为降准降息的理由。因此，我们 依然倾向于近期的大幅调整，可能是错误定价，年内第三轮上涨机会可能正在酝酿。 5年地债ETF(159972)主要投资中长期地方债，适合进行久期管理和波段配置，提供相对较高的收益潜 力，并且信用风险较低。 7月30日，央行今日开展3090亿元7天逆回购操作，投标量3090亿元，中标量3090亿元，操作利率为 1.40%，与此前持平。 华西证券指出，对于债市而言，月末资金面宽松，成为利好因素。然而，债市定价几近完全忽略了流动 性层面的利好。债市近期的调整，更多是情绪的一致恶化。 截至2025年7月30日 13:59，5年地债ETF ...

每经编辑：叶峰 最近股市情绪很亢奋。沪指在众多利好催化下成功站上3600点，不仅创年内新高，也是自2022年1月以 来首次收于3600点上方。 东边日出西边雨，与权益市场的亮眼表现不同，债券市场最近则频频调整，主要原因是短期风险偏好的 转向，债市表现受到压制。 那么该如何看待近期债市波动以及后续债券市场表现？ 短期而言，债市或将因雅江工程等重要市场主线引发的情绪面变化而产生一定波动，但当前市场对经济 生产强、需求弱这一基本面的核心判断尚未发生根本改变。预计7月重磅会议是关键节点，将决定行情 能否得到"空中加油"。 中期来看，在经济基本面和流动性没有改变情况下，商品和股市的表现虽然阶段性有扰动，但尚不足以 动摇债市的基础。长期来看，则需要重点关注通胀预期的变化。 对于普通投资者而言，随着债市波动的加大以及票息收益的下降，债市投资的难度明显提高。想要在债 市的风浪中抓住机会，找到高性价比的债市资产至关重要，可以关注"债市压舱石"十年国债相关品种， 比如十年国债ETF（511260）。 此外，十年国债ETF还有四点独特的配置优势： 1 、T+0交易便捷 十年国债ETF实行"T+0"交易，即当日买入、当日可卖出。在当 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is still in a long - position channel in the second half of 2025. The exchange - rate constraint has weakened significantly. With the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, liquidity is expected to remain loose. The decline in institutional liability costs is expected to bring incremental funds to the bond market. The weak economic fundamentals suggest a low possibility of short - term fiscal policy intensification, and inflation improvement may occur in the fourth quarter [1]. - The allocation value of 10 - year treasury bonds is prominent. They are suitable for asset allocation, with better market depth and breadth. Compared with medium - short - term and ultra - long - term treasury bonds, they have advantages in duration and risk - return ratio [1]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - year Treasury Bond Index can connect treasury bond futures and spot markets. It has high return stability, low volatility, and low risk [1]. - The Guotai Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - year Treasury Bond ETF has investment value, including low fees, good tracking effect, scarcity, diverse trading mechanisms, and excellent investment performance [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Review of the Interest - Rate Bond Market in the First Half of 2025 - The yield curve of treasury bonds first experienced a "bear - flat" and then a "bull - flat" trend. In Q1 2025, long - term bonds corrected due to tightened funds and bank liability pressure. In April 2025, the bond market quickly turned bullish. From May to June 2025, after the yield declined to a low level, the focus was on exploring spreads [7]. - The bond market in 2025 has three new features: the central bank's policy rate is the bottom of the money market; short - term bonds perform weakly, and long - term bonds are difficult to trade; the overall fundamentals are stable, but tariff pulses have a large impact [13]. 3.1.2 The Bond Market Remains in a Long - Position Channel in the Second Half of 2025 - Liquidity is expected to remain loose in July. The decline in institutional liability costs will bring incremental funds to the bond market, including the reset of bank time deposits and the potential reduction of insurance product preset interest rates [17][21]. - The weak economic fundamentals suggest a low possibility of short - term fiscal policy intensification. Inflation may bottom out in the third quarter, and improvement may occur in the fourth quarter. The bond market is still in a long - position window, but the odds are limited, and the current trading logic may continue to focus on exploring spreads [1][29]. 3.1.3 The Allocation Value of 10 - Year Treasury Bonds is Prominent - 10 - year treasury bonds are suitable for asset allocation as their pricing is based on fundamentals, and their pricing logic is different from that of stocks and commodities [37]. - The 10 - year treasury bond market has better depth and breadth, with large scale, wide participation, high trading activity, and a good futures - spot linkage effect. Its market position may be further consolidated in the future [45]. - Compared with medium - short - term treasury bonds, 10 - year treasury bonds have duration offensive advantages and a coupon safety cushion. Compared with ultra - long - term treasury bonds, they have a better risk - return ratio [49][57]. 3.2 Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond Index: A Bridge Connecting Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Index Compilation Scheme - The index was launched on March 7, 2013. Its sample bonds are treasury bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange with a remaining maturity between 6.5 and 10.25 years. It uses market - value weighting to reflect the overall performance of treasury bonds in the corresponding maturity range in the Shanghai market [64]. - The specific compilation scheme includes sample bond selection, index calculation, and sample adjustment (regular and temporary adjustments) [67]. 3.2.2 Basic Index Features - The index has high return stability, low volatility, and low risk. Since the base period, its cumulative return has reached 85.76%, with an annualized return of 4.82%, a maximum drawdown of - 6.86%, and an annualized volatility of 2.87% [71]. - All sample bonds are deliverable bonds for T contracts. The index has high concentration, and its duration is generally between 7 and 7.4 years, currently at 7.61 years [74][78]. 3.3 Guotai Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF 3.3.1 Basic Information - The fund was established on August 4, 2017, by Guotai Fund, with Wang Yu and Wang Zhenyang as fund managers. As of July 18, 2025, its scale is 15.547 billion yuan. The management fee and custody fee are 0.15% and 0.05% respectively [80]. - It is one of the bond funds with the lowest fees, and as an on - exchange product, it does not charge subscription or redemption fees [83]. 3.3.2 Investment Method - The fund mainly invests in the constituent treasury bonds and alternative constituent treasury bonds of the target index (with a proportion of not less than 90% of the fund's net asset value). It uses an optimized sampling replication method to track the target index, aiming for an annualized tracking error of no more than 2%. Since its establishment, the annualized tracking error has been 1.43% [84][87]. 3.3.3 The Only Product Tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond Index in the Market - Currently, most domestic interest - rate bond index funds cover policy - financial bond indices, and long - duration interest - rate bond indices and treasury bond indices are relatively scarce. The Guotai Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF is the only product tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - year Treasury Bond Index, with scarcity [91]. 3.3.4 Trading Mechanism - The fund can be traded on the secondary market, and its IOPV is publicly announced, supporting T + 0 trading. It has sufficient liquidity, and the deviation between IOPV and trading price is low [97]. - The fund also supports physical redemption and has a pledge - repurchase business, with a current conversion ratio of about 94.48%, which meets the refinancing needs of investors [102]. 3.3.5 Investment Performance - Since its establishment, the fund has an annualized return of 4.01%, a maximum drawdown of - 4.56%, an annualized volatility of 2.45%, a Calmar ratio of 0.88, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.03. It has achieved positive returns for six consecutive years, and its maximum annual drawdown is generally no more than 3% [103]. - In the past three years, its return has led 92.30% of interest - rate bond index funds [107]. 3.4 Fund Manager Information 3.4.1 Fund Manager Introduction - Guotai Fund was established in March 1998, one of the first batch of standardized fund management companies in China. It has a complete product line and various business qualifications, with a total asset management scale of 114.34 billion yuan [111]. 3.4.2 Fund Manager Introduction - Wang Yu has a master's degree, joined Guotai Fund in January 2016, and currently manages 10 products with a total scale of 23.148 billion yuan [112]. - Wang Zhenyang has a master's degree, joined Guotai Fund in December 2024, and currently manages 4 products with a total scale of 23.302 billion yuan [115].

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q2 has slightly decreased from 5.4% in Q1 to 5.2%, indicating a stable yet high economic performance [1] - Nominal GDP growth has dropped from 4.6% in Q1 to 3.9% in Q2, reflecting weaker price levels [1] Investment and Consumption Trends - Fixed asset investment growth fell to -0.1% in June from 2.7% in May, with declines in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [2] - Real estate investment growth decreased by 12.9% year-on-year in June, while real estate sales area also saw a decline of 5.5% [2] - Retail sales growth for the first half of the year was around 5%, but June saw a drop to 4.8% from 6.4% in May, partly due to earlier consumption during the "618" shopping festival [2] Trade Performance - Export growth in June was strong at 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations, while imports grew by 1.1% [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly from the U.S., may impact future export performance [3][4] U.S. Economic Impact - The U.S. experienced significant inventory accumulation in the first half of the year, which could lead to reduced import demand if domestic consumption weakens [4] - If U.S. consumer demand does not keep pace with import growth, it may result in inventory buildup and subsequent import declines [4] Policy and Economic Projections - The GDP growth target for the year remains at 5%, with a potential slowdown in the second half projected at around 4.7% [4] - The likelihood of strong policy stimulus in the second half is considered low, suggesting a more challenging economic environment [5] Investment Recommendations - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a favorable investment option due to its low fees and higher coupon rates compared to shorter-duration bonds [5]

Core Insights - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that as of June 30, 2025, the equity position of actively managed bond open-end funds (old) is 4.70%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from the end of the first quarter [1] - The pure bond position is 109.03%, an increase of 2.88 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] - The overall market for the second quarter of 2025 saw a bullish trend in both stocks and bonds, with varying strategies among different types of actively managed bond funds regarding their pure bond positions [1][2] Market Overview - In Q2 2025, the bond market experienced low volatility and oscillation, with short-term bonds outperforming long-term ones [1] - The market was influenced by factors such as administrative orders on "reciprocal tariffs," monetary easing expectations, and the Lujiazui Financial Forum, leading to a general increase in bond prices [1] - Major indices showed positive performance, with the China Bond Total Net Price Index rising by 0.90% and the China Convertible Bond Index increasing by 3.77% [1] Fund Positioning - As of Q2 2025, the overall equity position of actively managed bond open-end funds is 4.68%, with a pure bond position of 108.89% [2] - The leverage ratio for these funds stands at 116.67%, indicating a slight increase [2] - The report highlights a significant increase in pure bond positions across various fund types, while equity positions have generally decreased [1][2] Asset Allocation - The allocation to pure bonds has increased, while equity positions have decreased across the board [2] - Within pure bond assets, the allocation to interest rate bonds is 43.45%, and credit bonds is 65.45% [2] - The report notes that institutions are increasing their allocation to interest rate bonds due to a downward trend in interest rates [12] Credit Bond Analysis - The allocation to high-grade credit bonds is approximately 51.19%, reflecting an increase, while low-grade credit bonds have decreased to about 14.42% [20] - The duration of high-grade credit bonds has been extended, indicating a strategic shift towards longer durations in anticipation of favorable interest rate movements [20] Leverage and Duration - The overall leverage ratio for actively managed bond funds has increased to 116.76%, suggesting a trend towards leveraging for enhanced returns [17] - The weighted average duration of the funds has also been extended, with pre-leverage duration at 4.13 years and post-leverage duration at 4.49 years [20]

Group 1 - The public fund reports for the second quarter have begun to be disclosed, with notable reports from Guoyuan Securities and Huian Fund [1][2] - Fund managers are shifting strategies towards holding bonds for coupon income as equity markets recover and risk appetite slowly increases [1][2] - There is a significant increase in the allocation of corporate bonds by fund managers, with Guoyuan's fund allocating 75.09% of its bond market value to corporate bonds, and Huian's fund increasing its allocation to 31.50% [1][2] Group 2 - The Huian fund manager noted a gradual desensitization to overseas tariff disturbances, leading to a slight rebound in long-term interest rates, with a focus on holding bonds for coupon income [2] - The net value growth rates for Huian's fund A and C shares were 0.96% and 0.91%, respectively, while Guoyuan's fund had a growth rate of 0.79% [2] - Fund managers remain optimistic about the bond market's performance in the second half of the year, anticipating continued strength if liquidity remains ample [2][3] Group 3 - The bond market faced significant redemptions in the second quarter, with many bond funds experiencing large outflows [3] - Guoyuan's fund reported a total subscription of 54.95 million shares and redemptions of 284 million shares during the second quarter [3] - Fund managers believe that the economic recovery will take time, which may present investment opportunities in the bond market [3] Group 4 - Analysis from Bosera Fund indicates that low funding rates reflect the central bank's accommodative stance, with a focus on reducing costs to protect bank interest margins [4] - It is expected that the funding environment will remain loose in the short term, which is favorable for the bond market [4]