Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bond market may continue to experience a weak oscillating pattern in 2026, similar to 2025, due to concerns over rising inflation and ongoing strict regulations [1] - There is a consensus expectation that the bond market will struggle to form a clear direction, influenced by the transition from expansive fiscal policies to stable fiscal policies if economic growth targets decline [1] - The key to the bond market's performance in 2026 will be the substantial changes in monetary policy, which may require the emergence of bottom-up risk events to stimulate active monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The potential shift in fiscal policy could alleviate supply pressure on government bonds if the fiscal deficit rate decreases alongside lower economic growth targets [1] - The bond market may see a "slow at first, fast later" rhythm, with a period of dormancy in the first quarter, followed by active engagement in the second and third quarters, potentially leading to an annual low point [1]

Macroeconomic Insights - November inflation data shows CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, meeting expectations, while month-on-month decreased by 0.1%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year. PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, lower than the expected -2%, but increased by 0.1% month-on-month [5][7]. - The IMF projects China's economy to grow by 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026 [7]. - The bond market continued its recovery, with long-term government bonds showing significant improvement. The main contract for 30-year government bonds rose by 0.3% [7]. Equity Market Analysis - The market exhibited a rebound after a dip, indicating strong support at lower levels. The computing hardware sector was pivotal in driving the index's recovery, and its core stocks will be crucial for future observations [9]. - The Ministry of Commerce's promotion of the "Fat Donglai model" focuses on the lower-tier market, indicating a shift in retail competition towards refined operations, personalized services, and deep digital integration for high-quality development [10]. - Hainan's free trade port's full island closure and its 14th Five-Year Plan mark a new phase of higher-level openness. Short-term investment prospects include consumer return and policy benefits, while medium-term focuses on modern service industries and unique industrial clusters [10].

中信证券研报称，经测算，12月基本不存在流动性缺口，资金面对债市的风险有限。参考2021年以来 10Y国债收益率各月表现，年末债市利率整体趋于下行。随着今年11月债市调整，10年国债收益率回升 至1.75%~1.85%区间的偏上位置，交易机会也开始浮现。然而，中信证券认为年末行情的空间可能仍然 较为有限，建议结合债市边际变化灵活调整策略节奏。 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - Forecasts 2025 November new loans to be 450 billion yuan and social financing increment to be 2.15 trillion yuan; at end - Nov, M2 to reach 337.2 trillion, YoY +8.1%, new - caliber M1 YoY +5.6%, and social financing growth rate to be 8.4% [1] - November new loans may be less than the same period last year due to weak credit demand and banks' low motivation for credit issuance; future new loans may also be less year - on - year [2] - November M1 growth rate may decline, and M2 growth rate may slightly decline month - on - month [2] - Social financing growth rate may continue to decline, and it may drop to about 7.3% by the end of 2026 [2] - December bond market is promising, and the report is bullish on the bond market [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs New Loans - Predicts 450 billion yuan in new loans in November 2025, with individual loans +5 billion, corporate loans +35 billion, and non - bank inter - bank loans +5 billion; individual short - term loans - 5 billion, individual long - term loans +10 billion; corporate short - term loans +0 billion, corporate long - term loans +15 billion, and bill financing +20 billion [2] M1 and M2 - Predicts the new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of November to be 5.6%, with a slight month - on - month decline; the M2 growth rate at the end of November to be 8.1%, with a slight month - on - month decline [2] Social Financing - Predicts 2.15 trillion yuan in social financing increment in November 2025, less than the same period in 2024; the growth rate at the end of November to be 8.4%, with a 0.1 - point month - on - month decline [2] Bond Market - Due to factors such as slow growth in bond fund scale and banks' and insurers' increased influence on bond market pricing, and considering factors like banks' lower liability costs and insurers' asset - liability duration gap, the report is bullish on the December bond market [2]

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-12-01 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《涨不动后，信用如何参与？——信 用周报 20251125》 - 2025.11.26 固收周报 年末机构行为百态 ——流动性周报 20251130 l 年末机构"做收益"的意愿普遍偏弱 年末机构"做收益"的意愿普遍偏弱。并非所有机构都面临负债 压力，或者对债券后市的观点极度悲观，但有一个共通点，就是不指 望也不诉求在年末做收益，即使是配置型机构也没有往年末的"抢筹" 意愿。 公募类账户：更多希望规避波动，应对负债压力。从公募类账户 管理人的心态来看，年末做收益并不是第一位的，即便有债券行情的 出现，也会选择较为谨慎的操作，以保证一定的流动性头寸。 理财类账户：年内诉求不强，但对明年一季度有诉求。部分机构 所采取的策略是，在年底不诉求规模的增长，以避免抬高基数；依然 准备在明年一季度诉求规模增长，也会在明年一季度集中配置票息类 资产，这从对规模的管理上和对投资机会的把握上，都是合理的。 银行自营类账户：注重 ...

Group 1 - The latest price for the 5-10 year government bond ETF (511020) is 115.58 yuan, while the government development bond ETF (159651) is priced at 106.67 yuan. The current scale of the 5-10 year government bond ETF has reached 1.631 billion yuan [1] - Recent trading activity shows that long-term interest rate bonds (20 years and above) experienced a net sell-off of 6.6 billion yuan by bond funds, while insurance funds bought 4.3 billion yuan. Over the past week, broker proprietary trading sold off 22.8 billion yuan, and bond funds sold 11.4 billion yuan, with insurance funds purchasing 23.3 billion yuan and rural commercial banks adding 6.4 billion yuan [1] - Institutions indicate that the recent adjustment in long-term interest rate bonds is primarily due to selling by broker proprietary trading and bond funds. There are ongoing rumors regarding new regulations on fund redemption fees, which are causing fluctuations in the bond market. The implementation of these new regulations is expected to mark the beginning of the second wave of the bond market in Q4 [1] Group 2 - The 5-10 year government bond ETF closely tracks the CSI 5-10 Year Government Bond Active Index, which includes bonds with maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years. The index is calculated using a non-market capitalization weighted method to reflect the overall performance of these bonds [2] - The government development bond ETF closely follows the China Bond 0-3 Year Development Bank Bond Index, which includes policy bank bonds with a maturity of up to 3 years. This index serves as a performance benchmark for investments in this category of bonds [2]

新华财经北京11月25日电（王菁）债市周二（11月25日）小幅走弱，国债期货全线收跌，银行间现券收 益率小幅回升0.5BP左右；公开市场单日净回笼1054亿元，多项扰动已过、资金利率多数回落。 机构认为，年内货币政策缺乏想象空间对债市形成压制，在此前修复行情过后，市场机构普遍做多信心 不足。亦有观点指出，债市情绪依然脆弱，在12月中央经济工作会议之前，债市行情或仍延续震荡。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.33%报115.16，10年期主力合约跌0.08%报108.22，5年期 主力合约持平于105.98，2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.422。 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍上行，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率上行0.85BP报2.1685%，10 年期国开债"25国开15"收益率上行0.45BP报1.878%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益率上行0.45BP报 1.8175%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.22%，报485.08点，成交金额624.32亿元。欧通转债、振华转债、大中转债、 国城转债、利扬转债涨幅居前，分别涨9.35%、8.19%、7.85%、7.79 ...

横盘之后，是涨是跌？ ——流动性周报 20251123 证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-11-24 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《从资管信托新规，看银行理财变局— — 机 构 行 为 专 题 二 20251120 》 - 2025.11.21 固收周报 ⚫ 上涨面依然大于下跌面 观点回顾：四季度债市或在震荡中前行。对短端而言，高配置价 值和交易价值是实实在在的，存单年末还将存在一定的供给压力，但 出现负反馈的概率不高，在资金稳定宽松背景下，同业存单利率处于 高配置价值区间，年末有超预期下行的可能。对于长端而言，前期期 限利差的扩张，给予了长端一定的修复空间。依然坚持四季度债市利 多因素多发，但赎回压力持续存在，需要以区间震荡思路做交易的判 断。随着宽松预期的升温，不妨对后期后续的债市行情更乐观点。 债市进入盘整状态，甚至不对风险偏好做出反应。近几周，债市 波动收窄的程度依然超出预期，即收益率波动幅度明显收窄，仅仅因 房地产政策预期等因素而出现小幅波动，甚至在全球风险偏好明显收 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 17, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a total amount of 283 billion [1] - On the same day, 119.9 billion in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 163.1 billion [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The central bank continued net injections in the open market, with overnight repurchase rates rising approximately 14 basis points to around 1.51% due to tax periods and year-end bank liabilities [3][5] - The overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.00% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was stable at 1.64% [8] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed increases: 30-year contracts rose by 0.33%, 10-year by 0.09%, 5-year by 0.05%, and 2-year by 0.03% [13] Group 5: Fiscal Revenue - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.649 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with tax revenue at 15.3364 trillion, up 1.7%, and non-tax revenue at 3.3126 trillion, down 3.1% [14] - The central government’s budget revenue was 8.1856 trillion, down 0.8%, while local government revenue was 10.4634 trillion, up 2.1% [14] Group 6: Foreign Holdings in Bond Market - As of October 2025, foreign institutions held 3.73 trillion in the interbank bond market, accounting for 2.2% of the total custody amount [15] - Foreign institutions held 2.04 trillion in government bonds, 0.78 trillion in interbank certificates of deposit, and 0.75 trillion in policy financial bonds [15] Group 7: Global Macro - Japan's Q3 GDP showed a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.4%, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [17] - The Bank of Japan is maintaining a loose monetary policy stance to achieve a stable inflation target of 2% [17]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced marginal tightening in liquidity last week, with the 10-year government bond yield closing at 1.805%, showing a slight decrease of 0.1 basis points, and the overall market remains in a sideways trend awaiting clearer signals [1][4]. Market Review - The yield changes for various maturities from November 7 to November 14, 2025, were as follows: 1-year (+0.59 BP), 2-year (-0.25 BP), 3-year (-0.52 BP), 5-year (-0.57 BP), 7-year (-0.1 BP), 10-year (-0.02 BP), 30-year (-1 BP), and 50-year (+4.8 BP) [2][3]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated between 1.8% and 1.8125% during the week, ultimately closing at 1.805% [4]. Primary Market - A total of 100 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 726.87 billion yuan, including 6 government bonds worth 309.32 billion yuan, 21 policy bank bonds worth 132.48 billion yuan, and 73 local government bonds worth 285.07 billion yuan [7]. - For the upcoming week (November 17 to November 21), 60 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling 400.66 billion yuan [7]. International Market - The U.S. government shutdown ended, leading to concerns about economic impacts and a downward adjustment in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.15%, an increase of approximately 5 basis points for the week [8][10]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a total of 1.122 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos last week, resulting in a net injection of 626.2 billion yuan [12]. - The PBOC plans to conduct an 800 billion yuan reverse repo operation on November 17 to maintain liquidity in the banking system [12]. Institutional Perspectives - Tianfeng Securities noted that the bond market remains in a narrow trading range, with both bulls and bears exercising caution. The potential for a seasonal rally at year-end may not materialize due to uncertainties in the banking sector and insurance liabilities [19]. - Huaxi Securities suggested that with financial data indicating a need for broader monetary easing, the likelihood of a rate cut by year-end or early next year is increasing, with the possibility of the PBOC prioritizing bond purchases to create a more accommodative environment [20]. - Industrial perspectives from Xingye Securities indicated that the current state of the bond market may not change soon, and investors should remain patient for improved opportunities [21].