Group 1 - The overall bond market is experiencing weakness due to improved market risk appetite from unexpected outcomes in US-China trade talks, leading to a negative impact on the bond market [1] - The 10-year government bond yield has adjusted to 1.7%, with a recent peak of 1.69%, indicating that the current bond market adjustment is nearing its end [1] - The central bank's recent actions, including a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut and continuous net reverse repos, suggest a supportive monetary policy environment, maintaining reasonable liquidity in the market [1] Group 2 - The expectation for new financial policies has cooled, with a focus on accelerating the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing new ones, as the economy shows resilience [2] - In May, the issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a total of 440 billion yuan in new special bonds issued, marking a record high for the year [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to expedite the approval of construction project lists by the end of June, indicating a proactive approach to infrastructure investment [2] Group 3 - The domestic economy continues to show signs of recovery, supported by growth-stabilizing policies and easing trade tensions, which may shift external demand pressures [4] - The bond market is expected to experience sideways movement in the short term, influenced by liquidity, policy, and economic conditions, with a focus on upcoming PMI data and central bank operations [4] - Long-term, the bond market remains in a "bull market" environment, with overall easing liquidity and concerns about external conditions affecting market expectations [4]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating on the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Since 2020, there have been three main scenarios for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts: 1) RRR cuts change the market's expectation of the liquidity situation, catalyzing a decline in bond market interest rates; 2) RRR cuts do not significantly change market expectations and continue the bond market trend, with the yield curve steepening; 3) After RRR cuts, the market's expectation of the liquidity situation changes from loose to tight, and there is upward pressure on interest rates [6][53]. - The impact of RRR cuts on the bond market mainly includes: 1) After RRR cuts, the liquidity rate usually remains stable or drops significantly, and short - term interest rates are likely to decline, with the curve often showing a bull - steepening pattern; 2) In most cases, long - term interest rates decline with RRR cuts and liquidity easing, but there are two exceptions; 3) The scale of other tool injections after RRR cuts is positively correlated with the liquidity rate [6][54]. - The current RRR cut is similar to the second scenario, where it continues the bond market trend and increases the possibility of curve steepening. For long - term interest rates, the catalytic effect of this RRR cut is limited, and they are likely to remain volatile [6][55]. Group 3: Summary Based on the Report's Content 1. Three Scenarios of RRR Cuts Since 2020 - **Scenario 1: Catalyzing Bond Market Interest Rate Decline** - RRR cuts occur after a significant seasonal increase in the liquidity rate. After the RRR cut, the central bank's net injection may decline or increase, but the liquidity rate will eventually return to stability or decline significantly, and long - term interest rates will decline due to the shift from tight to loose monetary expectations [6][53]. - Examples include July 2021, December 2021, December 2022, and March 2023. Before these RRR cuts, the DR007 central rate increased by more than 10bp compared to the historical average. After the RRR cuts, most of the central bank's other liquidity injection tools reduced their scale, and the liquidity rate returned to stability or declined significantly, and long - term interest rates also declined [10][13][18]. - **Scenario 2: Continuing the Bond Market Trend** - RRR cuts do not occur after a sudden tightening of liquidity. After the RRR cut, the central bank's open - market operation net injection scale decreases or remains low, but the liquidity pressure can be effectively hedged. The liquidity rate remains stable or drops significantly, and short - term interest rates decline. The long - term interest rate depends on whether the fundamental expectation can be quickly improved, and there are opportunities to steepen the yield curve [6][53]. - Examples are April 2022, February 2024, and September 2024. After the RRR cuts, the central bank's open - market operation net injection scale decreased, and the liquidity rate remained stable or declined. Short - term interest rates declined, and the impact on long - term interest rates was uncertain, but there were opportunities to steepen the curve [23][28][30]. - **Scenario 3: Upward Pressure on Interest Rates After RRR Cuts** - RRR cuts do not occur after a sudden tightening of liquidity, and are accompanied by a significant increase in other liquidity injections. Usually due to factors such as the Spring Festival and high government bond supply, the liquidity rate increases in the month of the RRR cut. The interest rate trend depends on the persistence of the liquidity tightening [6][53]. - Examples are January 2020 and September 2023. After the RRR cuts, the central bank maintained a high - scale injection, but the liquidity rate still increased. The bond market trend depends on the duration of the liquidity tightening [39][42][47]. 2. Comparison of the Current RRR Cut with Historical Scenarios - The current RRR cut is similar to the second scenario. Since April, the market's expectation of loose money has been restored. In May, although the net financing of interest - bearing bonds has increased marginally, the bank's liability pressure has eased. If the liquidity rate remains stable during the current period, short - term rates such as certificate of deposit (CD) rates may decline further in June [6][55]. - For long - term interest rates, the catalytic effect of this RRR cut is limited, and they are likely to remain volatile. The RRR cut did not occur after a sudden tightening of liquidity or a significant decline in the capital market, and the impact on the market's liquidity expectation is limited. The probability of significant weakening or strengthening of the fundamental expectation after the RRR cut is low [6][55].

Group 1 - The credit bond ETF Bosera (159396) has seen a 0.04% increase, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with the latest price at 100.67 yuan [3] - The fundamental outlook for the first quarter shows a seasonal "opening red" effect, but the impact of U.S. tariffs is beginning to manifest, leading to increased pressure for domestic growth in the second quarter [3] - The political bureau meeting emphasized high-quality development without introducing new stimulus policies, indicating a more proactive stance on monetary easing compared to fiscal policy [3] Group 2 - As of May 21, 2025, the credit bond ETF Bosera has achieved a maximum monthly gain of 66.67% since its inception, with a monthly profit probability of 60.94% and a 100% probability of profit over three months [4] - The maximum drawdown since inception is 0.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.10%, and a recovery period of 26 days [4] - The management fee for the credit bond ETF Bosera is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [4]

分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 （CPI）同比上涨2.3%，较3月份的2.4%略有下降，是2021年2月份以来最低水平。4月 份CPI环比上涨0.2%，低于预期的0.3%水平。 01 重要事件回顾 (5.5-5.11) 1、2025年5月12日中国和美国日内瓦经贸会谈发布联合声明，双方承诺将于2025年5月 14日前采取以下举措： 美国将（一）修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品（包括香港特别 行政区和澳门特别行政区商品）加征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初始的90天内暂 停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税；（二）取消根据 2025年4月8日第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对这些商品的加征 关税。 中国将（一）相应修改税委会公告2025年第4号规定的对美国商品加征的从价关税，其 中，24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施，同时保留对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税， 并取消根据税委会公告2025年第5号和第6号对这些商品的加征关税；（二）采取必要措 施，暂 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 5 月 18 日 周度金融市场跟踪 本周全球股市普遍上涨，债市收益率震荡上行 （ 5 月 12 日 -5 月 16 日） chenxi.li@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525010002 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：郭军 (8610)66229081 jun.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519070001 证券分析师：李晨希 ◼ 股票方面， 本周受中美谈判顺利影响，A 股整体呈现上涨，但大小盘股日内走势有 所分化。全周累计看，沪深 300 上涨 1.1%、中证 1000 下跌 0.2%、中证 2000 上涨 1.0%，这是连续第 5 周上涨。港股恒生指数上涨 2.1%，恒生科技指数上涨 2.0%。行 业方面，本周 31 个一级行业指数 20 个收涨，9 个收跌。美容护理、非银金融和汽车 领涨；计算机和国防军工领跌。周内看，周一（5 月 12 日）凌晨新华社发布新闻中美 经贸高层会谈取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识。当天市场超 4 ...

双降之后，债市行情从短端开始修复，收益率曲线进入兑现阶段。长端调整幅 度较大，主要受协议签订后整体风险偏好显著修复的影响。从宏观角度看，债 市逻辑变化较大。4 月份外部冲击明显加强导致收益率下行约十个 BP 左右。5 月初降息落地后政策利率调降十个 BP，对长端定价有同等幅度的估值下行。然 而协议达成超预期，中间有三个月缓冲期，这期间可能出现强劲出口变化、国 内需求端边际强化及价格端变化，带来短期宏观趋势逻辑明显变化。 摘要 • 政策利率下调 10BP 后，长端利率面临不确定性，三个月缓冲期内出口、 需求和价格可能出现变化，导致长端利率近期或维持震荡调整，难以找到 明确主线。 • 期限利差压缩至 20BP 以下，表明长端行情变动可能性小，应关注短端修 复。降准及货币政策组合拳使得流动性乐观，资金价格中枢预计移至 1.4- 1.5 附近，或阶段性突破 1.4。 • 大规模结构性货币政策（如再贷款）超预期，央行或迎来中长期流动性投 放高峰，资金价格可能向下偏离政策利率，类似于 2020 年以来的超常规 宽松。 • 存款利率调降对银行流动性有影响，但受结构性货币政策支撑，当前流动 性略偏松。银行投放高峰期，新价格证 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current loose funds have not been fully reflected in the bond market. The bond market is expected to develop from short - term to long - term, with the curve likely to first show a bullish steepening and then a bullish flattening. The overall interest rate downward trend remains unchanged [3][5][24] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - This week, funds were loose, and the short - end trend was significantly stronger than the long - end. After the holiday, the R001 and R007 dropped to 1.52% and 1.58% respectively, driving the short - term interest rates to decline significantly. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit (CD) dropped 7.5bps to 1.66% this week. Short - term interest rates and short - term credit also decreased significantly. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds rose slightly by 1.1bps and 1.9bps to 1.64% and 1.84% respectively [1][8] Reasons for Loose Funds - Seasonally, funds are loose in the first and middle of May. The central bank announced a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut this week, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. Even if considering the maturity of MLF (125 billion yuan) and repurchase (90 billion yuan) this month and assuming a half - volume continuation, the net capital injection from the reserve requirement ratio cut and repurchase is still over 50 billion yuan. Calculated with the March money multiplier of 8.65, it can support about 4.3 trillion yuan in financing demand. Since the social financing scale in May last year was only 2 trillion yuan, the current loose funds situation will remain until before the end - of - quarter impact [2][9] Impact on the Bond Market Quantity Perspective - As the capital price drops, the spreads between CDs, short - term credit, etc., and funds have turned positive, meaning that leveraging can effectively increase returns. Although the current leverage level has rebounded, it is not significantly higher than previous years. The daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase on May 9 was about 6.5 trillion yuan, basically the same as the same period last year [3][12] Price Perspective - Short - term interest rates still have room to decline further. The 1 - year CD is expected to drop to around 1.6%. Based on the average spread of about 9.5bps between the 1 - year AAA CD and overnight funds in the past year, if the overnight interest rate stabilizes at around 1.5% and the R007 at around 1.6%, the 1 - year AAA CD rate may be around 1.6%. Currently, the CD rate has dropped to 1.66% [3][13] Short - Term Bond Interest Rates - The 1 - year treasury bond and 1 - year AAA medium - term note are expected to drop to around 1.2% and 1.6% respectively. The spread between the 1 - year AAA CD and the 1 - year treasury bond has narrowed to 24bps, the lowest since 2023. If the spread returns to the average level of about 42bps since 2023, a 1.6% CD rate may correspond to a 1.2% 1 - year treasury bond rate. Credit bonds and CD rates are basically the same, so as the CD rate drops to around 1.6%, the same - maturity high - grade credit bonds are also expected to reach the corresponding level [4][19] Long - Term Bond Interest Rates - The decline in short - term interest rates will protect long - term interest rates and promote a significant recovery in the credit bond curve slope. If the 2 - year treasury bond drops to around 1.2%, combined with the average spread of 44bps between the 10 - year and 2 - year treasury bonds since 2023, the corresponding 10 - year treasury bond will be around 1.64%, indicating limited adjustment pressure on long - term bonds. The decline in short - term bond interest rates will bring better investment opportunities for 3 - 5 - year interest - rate bonds and 3 - 5 - year secondary perpetual bonds. The spread between the 5 - year and 1 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds has rebounded to around 20bps, more than 20bps higher than the low point in February, and the long - end allocation value of secondary perpetual bonds is emerging [4][21] Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to develop from short - term to long - term. The loose funds protect the short - end. The current CD rate is higher than the capital price, allowing leveraging to allocate CDs to increase returns. The spread between CDs and short - term treasury bonds has reached a low in recent years, making short - term treasury bonds more cost - effective than CDs for bank self - operated funds. The market leverage is also expected to gradually recover. The decline in short - term interest rates will increase the term spread, protect long - term interest rates, and enhance the allocation cost - effectiveness of 3 - 5 - year interest - rate bonds and credit bonds, gradually realizing the trend of the bond market first showing a bullish steepening and then a bullish flattening [5][24]

5月8日，中国人民银行打出年内首次降息降准"组合拳"。 自5月8日起，公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率由1.50%下调至1.40%。 自5月15日起，中国人民银 行将下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计向金融市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。 降准和降息消息发布后，债市长短端表现分化。30年期国债活跃券的收益率5月7日曾出现震荡上行走势，而1年期、2年期国债活跃券的收益率则出现下行走 势。 分析人士指出，当前基本面和适度宽松的货币政策环境对债市形成利好支撑。债市短端在资金价格带动下或有一定下行空间，不过长端此前已经部分定价了 降息预期，因此出现了利率上行的走势。 债市表现"平淡" 中国人民银行行长潘功胜5月7日在国务院新闻办公室举行的新闻发布会上介绍，进一步实施好适度宽松的货币政策，中国人民银行将加大宏观调控强度，推 出一揽子货币政策措施，主要有三大类共十项措施。 在数量型政策方面，下调存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计向市场释放长期流动性约1万亿元；阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率从5%降 至0%，增强对特定领域的信贷供给能力。此次降准后，金融机构加权平均存款准备金率将从6.6%降至6.2%。 ...

新华财经上海5月7日电（记者杨溢仁）降准、降息如期而至，但对于债市，在利好兑现的同时，各机构 的谨慎情绪亦有所"抬头"。部分业内人士认为，当前的债市利率已在较大程度上透支了本次货币政策宽 松，若后续经济趋势改善，债券市场很可能面临一定的调整风险。不过，考虑到基本面的复苏难一蹴而 就，且未来尚有进一步降息、降准空间，"债牛"行情仍可期待。 利好兑现债市波澜不惊 为实施好适度宽松的货币政策，加力支持实体经济，中国人民银行决定，从2025年5月8日起，公开市场 7天期逆回购操作利率由此前的1.50%调整为1.40%；与此同时，实施适度宽松的货币政策，提高宏观调 控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性，自2025年5月15日起，下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点（不含已 执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构），下调汽车金融公司和金融租赁公司存款准备金率5个百分点。 降息、降准应声落地，债市收益率却表现得"波澜不惊"，与传统降准、降息后中债收益率大幅下行不 同，本次利好兑现后，长债收益率一度加速上行，截至7日中午11时30分，10年期国债活跃 券"250004"收益率上行了1.7BP至1.638%，超长期国债活跃券"230023"的 ...

5 月债市行情如何演绎？20250506 摘要 • 贸易战和汇率关税升级为债市带来潜在机会，但具体影响需持续观察。同 时，流动性逐步稳定，资金价格中枢下行，机构投资收益修复，债市整体 呈现修复态势。 • 政策层面，广义财政加降准是主要政策组合，结构性货币政策降息确定性 高，降准可期，但政策利率降息需等待。当前策略应偏谨慎，收益率曲线 若下行，应从短端入手。 • 基本面显示外部冲击影响逐步兑现，新出口订单回落。政策面财政发力低 于预期，但货币层面仍有宽松信号，5 月份或有债市利好信息。 • 市场打破僵局难度大，前期已定价部分利好。无明确降息预期下，降准对 债市定价增量有限。关注 4 月底回购操作及金融主管部门会议。 • 未来货币政策展望乐观，MLF 净投放不能替代总量宽松信号，降准概率仍 高。中长期流动性仍有投放必要性和空间，4 月初以来资金价格中枢明显 下行。 • 降准可使短期债券收益率曲线下压，但难形成长期系统性偏离。5 月政府 债券发行量大，流动性相对平衡。降准后资金价格更稳，中枢略有下行。 • 五一假期前后债市回暖，各类债券收益率上涨。信用债市场存在补涨机会， 同期限信用债收益率下行幅度与利率相近。中等 ...