证券分析师： 韩强 A0230518060003 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 王珂 A0230521120002 刘正 A0230518100001 马天一 A0230525040004 戴文杰 A0230522100006 黄莎 A0230522010002 武雨桐 A0230520090001 李蕾 A0230519080008 穆少阳 A0230524070009 刘宏达 A0230524020002 李冲 A0230524070001 联系人：何佳霖 A0230523080002 2025.12.29 核心观点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 证 券 研 究 报 告 "制造强国"实干系列周报(12/28期) ◼ 商业航天：1）制造及发射端关注份额或价值量在降本趋势下有望维持相对稳定或具备提升潜力的核心标的；2）应用端关 注通信终端基带、射频芯片及相控阵天线配套标的；3）航天科技集团拥有较多体外资产，有较强并购重组预期。重点关注 标的：1）卫星载荷：航天电子+上海瀚迅+臻镭科技，2）卫星平台：上海港湾+航天智装+光威复材；2）应用终端：信 科移动+信维通信+通宇通讯， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the price of electrolytic copper may show an inverted "V" trend throughout the year. It may fluctuate strongly in the first half of the year, challenging new highs, and weakly in the second half. The volatility of copper prices is expected to converge to a limited extent, and call options remain highly suitable. The main influencing factors include the Fed's monetary policy, Sino - US relations, changes in copper concentrate TC, and energy storage demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Copper Market Review - In 2025, copper prices showed a generally strong and fluctuating trend. By December 10, the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract had risen by nearly 25% during the year. The copper futures market went through four stages: in the first stage (January - March), the first wave of price increase was driven by the tightening supply of copper concentrate and the market's expectation of rising US inflation. In the second stage (April - mid - September), after hitting bottom, the price rebounded and then consolidated for a long time, affected by trade wars, Fed rate - cut expectations, and other factors. In the third stage (late September - mid - November), the second wave of price increase occurred due to the supply shortage of copper concentrate and positive market news. In the fourth stage (mid - November - present), the price repeatedly broke through historical highs, driven by market concerns about the Fed's future policies [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment Outlook 3.2.1 Fed Policy May Remain Loose - In 2025, the Fed's policy experienced multiple adjustments, including rate cuts and the end of the balance - sheet reduction plan. Looking ahead, according to the dot - plot after the December meeting, there is still one rate cut expected in 2026 and 2027. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will continue to expand its balance sheet and the independence of the Fed after Powell's term ends [11][12]. 3.2.2 Sino - US Game Will Continue - In 2025, Sino - US tariff disputes went through several rounds of escalation and mitigation. The US used tariff hikes as a bargaining chip. In the future, Sino - US tariff disputes are expected to continue, and the US may focus on issues such as fentanyl and rare - earth exports [13][15]. 3.3 Demand Side: Emerging Demands Show Obvious Increases and May Explode in 2026 3.3.1 Traditional Industries Have Limited Growth - **Real Estate Remains in a Downturn**: In 2025, despite a series of policies, real - estate investment, new construction, and completion data continued to decline. In 2026, although the government will continue to promote real - estate stability policies, the real - estate market is expected to continue to drag down copper demand in the short term [16][19]. - **White Goods Production and Sales First Strong Then Weak**: In 2025, with the support of the "trade - in" policy, white - goods production and sales were strong in the first half of the year but weakened later. In 2026, with the possible continuation of the policy and the replacement cycle, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales of three major white goods is expected to be higher than in 2025. However, the year - on - year growth rate of exports of white goods has declined overall compared to last year, and its contribution to copper demand growth has weakened [23][24]. 3.3.2 Emerging Demands Will Gradually Become the Main Force of Copper Demand - **AI and Computing Power May Boost Future Power Grid Demand**: In 2025, power and grid infrastructure investment showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. In the future, AI and computing - power industries will become important demand drivers for power and grid infrastructure [29]. - **New - energy Vehicles Provide Stable Increases Despite Slower Growth**: In 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales maintained a relatively high year - on - year growth rate, providing stable copper demand. In 2026, although the subsidy for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales is still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32][34]. - **Photovoltaic Installation in China Has Stable Increases and Exports Are Impressive**: In 2025, due to policy changes, there was a "rush - to - install" phenomenon in the first five months, and the year - on - year growth rate of cumulative new installations and cumulative installations showed an inverted "V" trend. In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of photovoltaic installation may be lower than in 2025 but will still be high. Photovoltaic cell exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate [35][37]. - **Energy Storage Demand May Explode**: In 2025, the new energy - storage installation volume in China is expected to increase by 24% year - on - year. In 2026, it is expected to reach 230GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate close to 70%. Globally, the new energy - storage installation volume in 2026 is expected to reach 480GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate of 60%, providing significant copper demand growth [44][47]. 3.4 Supply Side: Mine - end Shortage Persists, and Smelter Production Cuts May Expand 3.4.1 Frequent Overseas Mine Incidents Lead to Continuous Decline in Copper Concentrate TC - In 2025, overseas copper mines experienced many incidents, causing copper concentrate TC to decline continuously. CSPT called on domestic smelters to jointly cut production in the fourth quarter. In 2026, the global copper concentrate increment is expected to be 45 - 56 tons, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. The shortage of copper concentrate will persist in the first half of 2026, and TC may remain at a very low level [49][62]. 3.4.2 Copper Mine Shortage Has Limited Impact on the Smelting End - In 2025, although copper concentrate was in short supply, the global and Chinese electrolytic copper production basically maintained the highest level in the same period of the past five years. In 2026, the shortage of copper concentrate may be difficult to ease in the first half of the year, and the domestic smelting industry may have a larger - scale joint production cut than in Q4 2025 [63]. 3.4.3 The Siphon Effect of US Copper Continues, and Spot Supplies of Shanghai and London Copper Are Tight - In 2025, due to factors such as tariffs, COMEX copper was at a significant premium, leading to a change in the global copper trade pattern. Copper flowed into the US, causing the inventory of COMEX copper to rise continuously, while the inventory of Shanghai and London copper decreased, resulting in a long - term tight spot supply and high prices [68][70]. 3.4.4 High Copper Prices Pressure Downstream Demand, and Social Inventory Remains at a High Level - In 2025, electrolytic copper social inventory increased to a high level in September, but it had little pressure on copper prices, which were mainly driven by macro factors and low copper concentrate TC [77]. 3.5 Future Outlook and Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.5.1 Global Copper Concentrate Supply - Demand Balance Remains Tight - In 2025, the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance was expected to be - 35 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 40 tons, with the supply gap widening compared to 2025. The shortage will persist in Q1 2026 and gradually ease in the later quarters [79][80]. 3.5.2 Electrolytic Copper Supply - Demand Balance - **Global**: In 2025, the global electrolytic copper supply - demand balance was in a tight state at - 5 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 21 tons, with the gap widening. - **China**: In 2025, the supply - demand balance of Chinese electrolytic copper was - 20.04 tons, with the gap nearly doubling compared to 2024. In 2026, it may decline slightly to - 30 tons, with the gap widening slightly compared to 2025 [81][83].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The difference between the reality and expectation of lithium carbonate increases the long - short divergence, and the price is in a high - level oscillation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 127,800, with changes of 6,260 compared to T - 1, 18,080 compared to T - 5, etc. The trading volume is 12,772, and the open interest is 21,877. For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 130,520, trading volume is 428,716, and open interest is 577,035. The warehouse receipt volume is 17,861 [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The basis between spot and 2601 contract is - 15,900, and between spot and 2605 contract is - 18,620; the difference between 2601 and 2605 contracts is - 2,720; the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 2,650; the difference between spot and CIF is 22,771 [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,490, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,355. Battery - grade lithium carbonate is 111,900, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 109,250, etc. [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 111,682 yuan/ton, up 6,544 yuan/ton from the previous workday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 111,900 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 109,250 yuan/ton, both up 7,000 yuan/ton [2] - **Company News**: Anda Technology will conduct a one - month maintenance of some production lines from January 1, 2026, expected to reduce lithium iron phosphate production by 3,000 - 5,000 tons, with no significant impact on production and operation [3] - **Policy News**: The National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that for the "new three items" industries such as new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, the key is to standardize the order and innovate, including regulating market competition, strengthening supply chain governance, and increasing technological innovation [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the global electrolytic aluminum supply will remain tight next year and that aluminum prices are expected to stay strong in the medium to long term due to supply constraints and growing demand from emerging industries [7]. - The recommended strategy is to continue holding medium - term long positions and engage in short - term rolling long positions, with the reference support range for SHFE Aluminum 2603 at 21,600 - 21,700 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Macro**: The US economy shows resilience, with a 4.3% growth in real GDP in Q3 2025. There are expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy after a potential change in the Fed Chair [7]. - **Supply**: China's electrolytic aluminum capacity expansion is restricted. Indonesia's planned new capacity is large but limited in actual increase in 2025. European production declined due to the energy crisis, and US output dropped for five consecutive years. Global supply is expected to be tight in the coming year [7]. - **Demand**: The domestic real - estate market is sluggish, but its impact on aluminum demand is reduced. New energy vehicles, energy storage, AI, and power grid construction in China and abroad are driving aluminum demand [7]. - **Inventory**: China's social aluminum inventory slightly increased due to rising prices and the end - of - year off - season [7]. - **View**: Medium - to long - term aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold medium - term long positions and do short - term rolling long positions, with SHFE Aluminum 2603 supported at 21,600 - 21,700 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report includes charts of domestic aluminum futures and spot prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premiums/discounts, LME aluminum prices, and the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, but no specific data analysis is provided [11][16] 3. Supply and Inventory - **Bauxite**: In November 2025, China imported 15.11 million tons of bauxite, a 22.5% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, cumulative imports were 187 million tons, a 29.61% increase. Guinea and Australia are major sources. Guinea's new production projects are expected to increase output [23][25][26]. - **Alumina**: In November 2025, China's alumina production was 8.138 million tons, an 8.4% year - on - year increase for January - November. There was a net export of 1.373 million tons from January to November. New domestic and overseas capacities are expected in 2025 and 2026 [39][43]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In November 2025, the cost of electrolytic aluminum increased, while profits grew. The built - in capacity was 45.158 million tons, and the operating rate was 96.28%. Global and domestic production increased slightly in 2025. Import and export data showed changes in 2025. LME and domestic social inventories were reported as of December 2025 [53][59][60] 4. Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Aluminum Alloys**: In November 2025, China's aluminum alloy production was 1.739 million tons, with a 15.8% increase from January to November [79]. - **Aluminum Products**: In November 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.931 million tons, a slight decrease. Import and export volumes of unforged aluminum and aluminum products changed in 2025 [86][92]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand structure of electrolytic aluminum in China is changing. The real - estate sector's demand is decreasing, while transportation, power, and other sectors are growing. Forecasts for transportation, power, and energy storage show an upward trend in aluminum demand [100][105][106] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: In 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum is expected to be in a tight balance, and the global market is also expected to be in a tight balance. After 2027, the global supply - demand gap may widen [110]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific content provided in the report

来源：中信建投证券 一、往期观点回顾 我们在上期策略中认为，本周操作需聚焦结构性机会，配置方向上，建议重点关注两大主线：一是科技创新领域， CPO、半导体等算力相关板块受益于产业需求爆发与政策支持，留意AI应用、数字经济等延伸方向；二是政策驱动型板 块，消费板块中可关注受益于促消费政策的必选消费与改善型消费细分领域，基建相关板块则可跟踪专项债落地进度带 来的机会。仓位管理上，建议保持六成左右灵活仓位，避免追高近期涨幅过大的热点品种，优先选择业绩可验证、产业 趋势明确的标的。风险防范方面，需警惕海外市场波动传导、短期获利盘了结带来的回调压力，同时关注地缘政治扰动 因素。 二、一周市场回顾及走势分析 （一）市场整体表现 本周行情持续反弹，三大指数本周均录得五连阳。市场主要指数中，中证500以4.03%的周涨幅排名前列，上证50和沪深 300指数表现相对落后。 资料来源：中信建投通达信 （二）板块表现 从行业板块表现来看，有色金属、工业贸易、国防军工、化工等涨幅居前，公用事业、媒体娱乐、交通运输、医药生物 等涨幅相对落后。 从概念主题板块的表现看，玻纤、锂电电解液、海南自贸港、光伏、电池等涨幅居前。 资料来源：wi ...

价格追踪： ①SMM：电池级碳酸锂指数价格111682元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨6544元/吨；电池级碳酸锂10.18- 12.2万元/吨，均价11.19万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨7000元/吨；工业级碳酸锂10-11.85万元/吨，均价 10.925万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨7000元/吨。目前上游锂盐厂主要以保障长协订单交付为主，散单 成交较少。下游材料厂对价格过快上涨普遍保持谨慎，碳酸锂以长协和客供为主，采购节奏多根据下月 生产计划动态调整。然而，部分企业因刚需被迫接受高价货源以维持生产。此类高价成交持续推动今日 现货价格中枢上行。 行业要闻： ①国家发展改革委指出，对新能源汽车、锂电池、光伏等"新三样"产业，关键在于规范秩序、创新引 领。"十五五"时期，要综合整治"内卷式"竞争，维护公平竞争环境，提高行业集中度，打造全球技术领 先高地。 ⑦LG能源解决方案12月26日表示，科德宝集团旗下业务部门Freudenberg Battery Power Systems取消了于 2024年与其公司达成的价值3.9万亿韩元的电动汽车电池供应合同。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：钟离 ...

整体来看，短期锡价大概率维持33-35万元/吨核心区间高位震荡，回调压力逐步积聚；若节前备货不及 预期，价格或测试区间下沿，反弹动能受现货成交疲软制约，难成趋势性上涨。 本观点仅供参考，不做操盘指引（长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn） 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 今日午盘后沪锡走势：今日沪锡合约2602上涨，开盘价报338640元/吨，盘中最高报344470元/吨，最低 报332820元/吨，结算价报337950元/吨，收盘报338550元/吨，上涨4590元，涨1.37%；沪锡主力月2602 合约成交量369071手，持仓量52276手，较前一日减少968手。今日现货锡价走势：据长江有色金属网获 悉，12月26日ccmn长江综合市场1#锡价报332400元/吨-335400元/吨，均价报333900元/吨,较前一日价格 上涨1800元；今日长江现货市场1#锡价报333000元/吨-335000元/吨，均价334000元/吨，较上一交易日 价格上涨1750元/吨。ccmn锡市分析：宏观面，当前锡价正迎来"宏观政策、汇率、流动性"的共振式驱 动。一方面，美联储降息预期因美国CPI数据超预期放缓而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tianjin Jinrong Tianyu Precision Machinery Co., Ltd., is leveraging opportunities from the Belt and Road Initiative and expanding its operations in Southeast Asia and India, particularly in the clean energy sector, including photovoltaic and energy storage solutions [2][3]. Company Overview - Tianjin Jinrong Tianyu was established on June 9, 2004, and went public on May 12, 2021. The company specializes in the research, development, production, and sales of precision metal molds and related components [7]. - The main business revenue breakdown includes: electrical precision components (53.32%), automotive precision components (30.82%), scrap (13.90%), precision molds (1.30%), and others (0.73%) [7]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.434 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.96%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 87.866 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.43% [8]. - The company has distributed a total of 121 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 69.026 million yuan distributed over the past three years [9]. Product Development and Market Applications - The company has developed 114 new product varieties and 191 new molds in various fields, including low-voltage distribution, industrial automation, energy storage, wind power, and photovoltaic distributed energy, which are expected to generate over 240 million yuan in annual sales after mass production [2]. - The products are widely used in the new energy vehicle market, providing components for major automotive companies, including chassis, shock absorbers, safety systems, thermal management, electronic control, and seating systems [3]. Market Position and Trends - The company is positioned within the mechanical equipment industry, specifically in specialized equipment, and is involved in sectors such as energy management, industrial automation, and new energy vehicles [8]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders was 11,900, a decrease of 32.25% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 47.59% [8].

来源：同花顺 上证指数今天日线迎来8连阳，追平今年以来至今的最长连阳纪录，此前共发生两次，一次发生在4月11日至22日，另一次在8月4日至13日。 有色金属板块大涨，工业金属、贵金属、小金属、能源金属等板块集体上涨。 分析人士表示，本轮有色金属板块行情驱动因素复杂，各细分板块逻辑存在明显差异。其中，工业金属（如铜、铝）的核心驱动力更偏重经济周 期的景气度变化；而贵金属（如黄金）作为"货币的锚"，行情主要受全球货币因素、风险事件变化等推动；小金属则更多与相关产业创新、细分 产业政策等因素挂钩。 今天，A股上涨。截至收盘，上证指数上涨0.1%，深证成指上涨0.54%，创业板指上涨0.14%。 首先，从供需结构来看，工业金属，尤其是铜，持续面临供不应求的失衡格局。一方面，自2015年起，全球铜矿资本开支持续低迷，供给端长期 紧缺。另一方面的需求端呈现多点爆发态势，新能源汽车、光伏、AI、人形机器人等新兴产业快速扩张，对工业金属的需求量日益剧增。 其次，从宏观环境看，据CME"美联储观察"的最新数据，美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率升至26.6%。若美联储"如期"降息，美元走弱，将利 好金属价格。 最后，从政策面看 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the tin market is experiencing unprecedented structural forces, driven by supply constraints from key producing regions and a demand revolution fueled by AI, renewable energy, and photovoltaic applications [2] - Supply growth is facing rigid bottlenecks due to policy, geopolitical issues, and resource depletion in major production areas like Myanmar, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, exposing the fragility of the traditional supply system [2] - A fundamental rebalancing of supply and demand is pushing industry profits and market focus towards companies with resource and high-end manufacturing capabilities, such as China's Xiyu Co., Indonesia's PT Timah, and Huaxin Nonferrous [2] Group 2 - Tin has transitioned from a common industrial metal to a key strategic material essential for the global digital economy and green transition, with short-term prices expected to fluctuate between 330,000 and 340,000 yuan/ton [3] - The market is entering a new phase where pricing is determined by both resource scarcity and technological demand, reflecting the ongoing tension between long-term supply anxiety and emerging demand realities [3] - Multiple favorable factors are resonating in the context of macro liquidity turning accommodative and a weakening dollar, contributing to sustained high price levels for tin [2]