Core Viewpoint - Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to counteract the inflation caused by his tariff policies, while the Fed maintains its independence and focuses on combating inflation [3][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Impacts - Trump's insistence on lowering interest rates is primarily driven by the negative impact of his tariff policies, which have increased import costs and led to input inflation [3]. - The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% for the third consecutive time, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties [1][5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April increased by 2.3% year-on-year, which is below the market expectation of 2.4%, suggesting that the impact of tariffs has not yet fully manifested in economic data [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Independence - The Federal Reserve is designed to be insulated from political fluctuations to maintain long-term economic stability, and it has stated that it will not yield to political pressure from Trump [4]. - The Fed's primary responsibilities include maintaining price stability and a healthy labor market, which are guided by economic indicators such as CPI and unemployment rates [4][5]. - The Fed's cautious stance is also influenced by historical lessons and the need to preserve policy space for potential future crises [5]. Group 3: Global Economic Dynamics - Despite the ongoing tensions, both the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve share a common goal of maintaining the dollar's strong position in the global financial system [7]. - There is a growing demand among Asian banks and brokers for currency derivatives that bypass the dollar, indicating a potential erosion of the dollar's dominance [8]. - The increasing interest in loans denominated in renminbi reflects a shift in global financial dynamics, as businesses seek alternatives to the dollar [8].

Report Overview - The report is a shipping research report by the Commodity Research Institute, covering container shipping, dry bulk shipping, and tanker transportation [1][10][28] Group 1: Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The 08 main contract of the container shipping index (European line) continued to strengthen significantly on May 13, with EC2508 closing at 1896 points, up 5.69% from the previous day's close [5] - The SCFIS European line reported 1302.62 points on May 13, down 5.54% month-on-month, and the SCFI European line reported $1161/TEU on May 9, down 3.25% month-on-month [5] - The spot freight rate bottom is gradually emerging. After the tariff reduction, the US line rush shipment starts to raise prices first. The European line disk anticipates first, and then the follow-up focus returns to the spot. The short-term near-month disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7] - Hold the 8-10 positive spread, 6-10 positive spread, and 10-12 negative spread [8] Industry News - The EU welcomes the substantial progress and important consensus reached in the China-US economic and trade high-level talks, hoping to reduce trade barriers and support the stability and predictability of global trade and investment [9][10][11] - US tariff revenue in April reached $16 billion, a surge of $9 billion or 130% from the same period last year [11] Group 2: Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - On May 12, the Baltic Dry Bulk Composite Freight Index ended its four consecutive trading days of decline. The BDI rose 0.38% to 1304 points, the BCI rose 1.29% to 1731 points, the BPI fell 0.81% to 1342 points, and the BSI rose 0.10% to 970 points [15] - On May 12, the freight rates of the Cape-sized ship iron ore routes, Brazil Tubarao - Qingdao (BCI-C3) and Western Australia - Qingdao (BCI-C5), were reported at $18.36/ton and $7.56/ton, up 0.80% and 0.93% month-on-month respectively [16] - The dry bulk shipping market lacks obvious incremental transportation demand, with more supply of shipping capacity, and the freight rates are under pressure. The international dry bulk freight market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17] Industry News - From May 5 to May 11, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.225 million tons, a decrease of 1.179 million tons month-on-month. The global iron ore shipments were 30.29 million tons, a decrease of 0.215 million tons month-on-month [18] - The analysis institution APK - Inform lowered the forecast of Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest by 3.8% to 55.3 million tons and the grain export forecast for the 2025/26 season by 4% to 40.9 million tons [18] - Indonesia's coal exports from January to April decreased by more than 10% year-on-year, hitting a new low for the same period in three years [19] Group 3: Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - On May 12, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was reported at 991, down 0.40% month-on-month and 14.50% year-on-year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was reported at 574, up 0.17% month-on-month and down 45.54% year-on-year [22] - OPEC+ started to gradually increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, which may increase the global seaborne demand for crude oil. The concentrated outflow of cargoes in late April and early May supported the VLCC ship market, and the impact of the cargo release rhythm on freight rates needs further attention [22] Industry News - As of May 12, the domestic refined oil social unit diesel storage capacity utilization rate was 30.35%, up 0.02% from the end of last month [23] - US President Trump hopes to obtain a $1 trillion investment commitment from Saudi Arabia, but this goal may face huge obstacles [23][24] - After the China-US trade negotiation, the market showed an unexpectedly positive trend, but the oil price subsequently fell back, and the market atmosphere remained cautious [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations between the US and China, with a notable drop in gold prices due to reduced demand for safe-haven assets as trade talks progress [1][3][4] - Gold prices experienced a significant drop of nearly 2% in early Asian trading on May 7, following a two-week high, attributed to optimism surrounding US-China trade discussions [1][3] - Despite the recent decline, gold prices have increased by over 4% for the week, indicating underlying support from geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [1][4] Group 2 - The US Treasury Secretary's comments on the potential for progress in US-China trade negotiations have contributed to a more optimistic market sentiment, impacting gold's safe-haven demand [3][4] - The ongoing geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, continue to drive safe-haven investments into gold [4][5] - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is anticipated to influence gold prices, with expectations that the Fed will maintain interest rates, which could further support gold if a dovish stance is indicated [5][6] Group 3 - Oil prices have surged due to increased demand from Asia and a decrease in US production, with WTI crude oil rising by 3.18% to $58.97 per barrel [7][8] - The OPEC+ decision to increase production significantly in June may create downward pressure on oil prices in the medium term, despite current upward momentum driven by easing trade tensions [8][10] - The market is closely monitoring US inventory data and trade negotiations, as these factors are crucial for understanding future oil price movements [8][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil rebounded strongly. Kazakhstan showed support for the compensatory production cut agreement, reducing the expectation of further production increases by OPEC+. High - level contacts between China and the US also indicated a potential easing of trade relations, boosting optimistic expectations for demand recovery. The API crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, providing support for oil prices. With the Middle East situation fluctuating, the oil price has a strong trend of stabilizing and rising. Short - term trading is expected to be in the range of 462 - 472, and long - term investors can try to go long at low prices [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2506, the fundamentals are neutral as China - US high - level talks are upcoming and US shale oil production is expected to decline while Kazakhstan may comply with OPEC+ cuts. The basis is neutral with spot at par with futures. Inventory data is bullish as API and EIA inventories decreased more than expected. The盘面 is bearish with the price below the 20 - day moving average. The主力持仓 is neutral with mixed changes in WTI and Brent long positions. The expectation is for short - term trading in the 462 - 472 range and long - term long positions at low prices [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Kazakhstan is considering options to comply with OPEC+ production cut obligations after Saudi's warning. Since OPEC+ decided to increase production on May 3, oil prices have fallen, and investment banks have lowered oil price forecasts. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9 - 12 and will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary as the Chinese lead on Sino - US economic and trade issues. He will also go to France to co - host the 10th China - France High - Level Economic and Financial Dialogue from May 12 - 16. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the 2025 Brent crude price to be $66/barrel (previously $68) and 2026 to be $59/barrel (previously $61). It also adjusted the US oil production forecast for 2025 and 2026 downwards. - The EU announced a plan to stop importing Russian energy by 2027 [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Not explicitly stated. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Demand optimism remains to be verified, the risk of tariff trade wars has increased significantly, and OPEC+ production increases are ahead of schedule. The market is driven by the combined impact of damaged demand due to US policies and potential rapid supply increases. Risks include the breakdown of OPEC+ unity and the escalation of war risks. There are also threats of sanctions on Iran and Venezuela's crude oil [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Brent crude settled at $62.15 (up $1.92, 3.19%), WTI at $59.09 (up $1.96, 3.43%), SC at 457.8 (down 18.70, - 3.92%), and Oman at $61.77 (up $2.15, 3.61%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: UK Brent Dtd was at $62.90 (up $1.43, 2.33%), WTI at $59.09 (up $1.96, 3.43%), Oman at $61.93 (up $2.14, 3.58%), Shengli at $58.83 (up $1.25, 2.17%), and Dubai at $61.98 (up $2.39, 4.01%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory decreased by 449.4 million barrels in the week ending May 2 (expected - 248 million barrels). EIA inventory decreased by 269.6 million barrels in the week ending April 25 (expected + 42.9 million barrels), and Cushing inventory decreased by 8.6 million barrels in the week ending April 25. As of May 6, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 464.4 million barrels, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of April 29, the net long position increased by 6,254 to 177,209 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of April 29, the net long position decreased by 18,442 to 109,941 [18].

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett emphasized the importance of trade with other countries and stated that trade should not be used as a weapon [1] Group 1: Trade and Investment Strategy - Buffett believes that significant trading opportunities are unlikely to appear immediately but may arise over the next five years [1] - He stated that the company will not sell its investments in Japan's five major trading companies in the near future, indicating a long-term investment strategy [1] - Buffett expressed that real estate investment is more time-consuming and less attractive compared to stock investment, highlighting the abundance of opportunities in the stock market [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Berkshire Hathaway reported a net profit of $4.603 billion for the first quarter, a 64% decrease compared to $12.702 billion in the same period last year [2] - The company's revenue for the first quarter was $89.725 billion, slightly down from $89.869 billion year-on-year [2] - As of March 31, 69% of the total fair value of its equity investments was concentrated in American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Chevron, and Coca-Cola [2]

2025年伯克希尔·哈撒韦年度股东大会定于5月3日在美国内布拉斯加州奥马哈市的CHI健康中心举行。这 一盛事对全球的投资者而言意义重大，除了向往年以往将为与会者提供洞察伯克希尔公司战略与未来发 展方向的重要机会，也有可能会将见证一个历史性时刻——95岁的沃伦·巴菲特极有可能以伯克希尔哈 撒韦CEO的身份最后一次完整出席年度股东大会。 毕竟，当前美股市场的估值水平可能很大程度上已经使得价值投资者举步维艰，在这样的环境下，即便 是伯克希尔这样的投资巨头也难以找到足够便宜的"好公司"。据媒体统计，在过去两年里，伯克希尔一 直在净卖出股票，包括2024年度第二和第三季度都大比例卖出了苹果的股票，而新购股票总额仅约为15 亿美元，这相比其庞大的现金储备来说，甚至连零头也没到。 自1965年接管这家濒临破产的纺织厂至今，巴菲特用60年时间创造了投资史上最伟大的传奇：将伯克希 尔的每股账面价值从19美元提升至约65万美元，年化复合收益率高达19.9%，相当于标普500指数同期 表现的3.6倍。 这次股东大会的特殊意义远不止于数字的堆砌。在特朗普政府发起贸易战、AI等科技革命重塑产业格 局的复杂环境下，伯克希尔正面临其60年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil continued to weaken. The lack of significant progress in trade agreements between the US and other major economies, along with a sharp decline in the US consumer confidence index and the likelihood of OPEC+ significantly increasing production in June, have raised market concerns and led to a continuous decline in oil prices. There are no short - term positive events. It is recommended that investors control their positions and hold light positions during the holiday. The short - term price is expected to range between 474 - 483, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2506, the fundamentals are neutral due to factors such as Trump's auto - tariff relief measures, OPEC+ members' potential proposal to accelerate production increase, and the decline in US consumer confidence. The basis is neutral as the spot price is at par with the futures price. Inventory data is bearish with increases in API and EIA inventories. The disk is bearish as the 20 - day moving average is downward and the price is below the average. The main positions are bullish as both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions are long and increasing [3]. 2. Recent News - Russia - Ukraine conflict: Putin insists on controlling four unoccupied regions in Ukraine, causing a deadlock in the negotiation efforts led by Trump. Direct contact between Putin and Trump is needed for further progress [5]. - Trade - related news: The credit ratings of the US and China are unlikely to be affected by the trade war in the short term. Trump says tariff negotiations with India are progressing well, and the US may have reached a trade agreement with a partner country, but the Treasury Secretary refuses to confirm [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The US threatens to sanction Iran, and Venezuelan crude oil also faces sanction risks [6]. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, the risk of tariff trade war has increased significantly, and Russian sanctions may end [6]. - Market drivers: The demand side is damaged by US policies, and Trump's rapidly changing policies also impact the market [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures prices: Brent crude oil settled at 63.28 (down 1.51, - 2.33%), WTI at 60.42 (down 1.63, - 2.63%), SC at 488.1 (down 6.10, - 1.23%), and Oman at 65.30 (down 2.47, - 3.64%) [7]. - Spot prices: UK Brent Dtd at 64.37 (down 1.35, - 2.05%), WTI at 60.42 (down 1.63, - 2.63%), Oman at 64.89 (down 2.11, - 3.15%), Shengli at 62.03 (down 1.51, - 2.38%), and Dubai at 64.67 (down 2.34, - 3.49%) [9]. - Inventory data: US API crude oil inventory increased by 376 million barrels in the week ending April 25, and EIA inventory increased by 24.4 million barrels in the week ending April 18 [3]. 5. Position Data - WTI crude oil main position: As of April 22, the net long position increased by 24,585 [16]. - Brent crude oil main position: As of April 22, the net long position increased by 29,432 [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Tariff easing and the possibility of Russia - Ukraine negotiations may suppress gold prices, but due to tariff policy uncertainty, the continuous decline space of gold prices is limited after last week's sharp adjustment. Gold prices are expected to enter a high - level range oscillation in the short term. It is recommended that investors hold light positions during the May Day holiday and wait and see. The medium - long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. For silver, tariff negotiation expectations support its commodity attribute, and with some short - selling of gold - silver ratio configurations, silver is relatively resilient, but its upside space is limited due to economic downturn risks and the slowdown of physical demand [4]. - Medium - long - term: Against the backdrop of the global tariff trade war, the risk of economic recession increases, the Fed may cut interest rates in June, geopolitical uncertainties are high, and tariff policies will weaken the US dollar credit. Global central banks continue to buy gold, so gold still has medium - long - term allocation value, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - On April 28, 2025, compared with April 25, 2025, London gold spot decreased by 0.6%, London silver spot decreased by 1.9%, COMEX gold decreased by 0.6%, COMEX silver decreased by 2.0%, AU2506 decreased by 0.9%, AG2506 decreased by 1.4%, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.8%, and AG (T + D) decreased by 1.4% [3]. - Regarding spreads/ratios, from April 25 to April 28, 2025, the change rates of gold TD - SHFE active spread, silver TD - SHFE active spread, gold internal - external spread (TD - London), silver internal - external spread (TD - London), SHFE gold - silver main ratio, COMEX gold - silver main ratio, AU2508 - 2506, and AG2508 - 2506 were - 47.0%, 25.0%, - 7.4%, - 11.2%, 0.4%, 1.5%, - 8.7%, and - 4.8% respectively [3]. Position Data - From April 24 to April 25, 2025, gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.24%, silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.03%, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 4.72%, non - commercial short positions increased by 20.17%, net long positions decreased by 13.27%, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions decreased by 0.58%, non - commercial short positions decreased by 5.45%, and net long positions increased by 1.77% [3]. Inventory Data - From April 25 to April 28, 2025, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged (0.00% change), SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.17%. From April 24 to April 25, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.58%, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.03% [3]. Related Market Data - From April 25 to April 28, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.03%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.30%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.80%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.69%, VIX decreased by 6.16%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.74%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.64% [4]. News and Analysis - Trump said he would announce a trade agreement in the "next three to four weeks", and US officials have a template for tariff negotiations. Russia and the US envoy confirmed that Russia is willing to negotiate with Ukraine without pre - conditions [4]. - In the first quarter of 2025, China's domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 23.47 tons, a year - on - year increase of 327.73%, reaching 138.21 tons by the end of March [4]. - On April 28, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.44% to 780.04 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.52% to 8168 yuan/kilogram [4].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2506 | AG2506 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 格跟踪 | 2025/4/25 | 3305. 65 | 33. 45 | 3316. 10 | 33. 73 | 787. 20 | 8280.00 | 785. 39 | 8272. 00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据 ...

"在现在可投资的各种资产中，股票投资是一个比较好的选择。" "我们现在持有的很多高分红 、 经营 稳固 、 商业模式相对比较简单的 资产 ， 都是 我们种 下 的 ' 良田 '， 这也是 我们的基本盘 。在市场动荡的时候，这些东西像是'定海神针'。" "现在世界 变化 很快，各种事件频 发 ，实际上 我们 没有办法去很好的预测会有哪些事情 出现 ，会 有 怎样的影响 。但 我觉得 ，做 投资是可以以不变应万变的 。" 宁泉资产创始人杨东 在今天（ 4月28日）兴证全球基金主办的中国投资人峰会中，面对当下"可为"的权益 市场，有谨慎，更有乐观。 杨东是业内富有盛名的具有战略思维的投资管理人，在重要的周期拐点时，市场总希望得到他的研判和感 觉。 这几年的市场对于大多数投资管理人是难熬的，很多公私募老将，在这段时间里面都有点"表现失速"，期间 回撤三四十还挺普遍。 宁泉一直是渠道和客户中口碑不错的样本： 低调，但持有感受好；牛市里跑的不会很快，熊市保持绝对收 益，震荡市也能抓结构机会。 创始人杨东卸任兴全基金总经理之后，于2018年1月成立宁泉资产。 宁泉旗下产品宁泉稳有益，截至最新净值日期2025年4月18日，今 ...