投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2506 | AG2506 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 格跟踪 | 2025/4/25 | 3305. 65 | 33. 45 | 3316. 10 | 33. 73 | 787. 20 | 8280.00 | 785. 39 | 8272. 00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据 ...

"在现在可投资的各种资产中，股票投资是一个比较好的选择。" "我们现在持有的很多高分红 、 经营 稳固 、 商业模式相对比较简单的 资产 ， 都是 我们种 下 的 ' 良田 '， 这也是 我们的基本盘 。在市场动荡的时候，这些东西像是'定海神针'。" "现在世界 变化 很快，各种事件频 发 ，实际上 我们 没有办法去很好的预测会有哪些事情 出现 ，会 有 怎样的影响 。但 我觉得 ，做 投资是可以以不变应万变的 。" 宁泉资产创始人杨东 在今天（ 4月28日）兴证全球基金主办的中国投资人峰会中，面对当下"可为"的权益 市场，有谨慎，更有乐观。 杨东是业内富有盛名的具有战略思维的投资管理人，在重要的周期拐点时，市场总希望得到他的研判和感 觉。 这几年的市场对于大多数投资管理人是难熬的，很多公私募老将，在这段时间里面都有点"表现失速"，期间 回撤三四十还挺普遍。 宁泉一直是渠道和客户中口碑不错的样本： 低调，但持有感受好；牛市里跑的不会很快，熊市保持绝对收 益，震荡市也能抓结构机会。 创始人杨东卸任兴全基金总经理之后，于2018年1月成立宁泉资产。 宁泉旗下产品宁泉稳有益，截至最新净值日期2025年4月18日，今 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - Since the US launched a tariff trade war at the beginning of April, the rubber market has declined significantly. However, considering the fundamentals, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The supply side is at the beginning of the new rubber - tapping season, and it will take time for production to increase. The domestic demand side shows strong tire开工, and the inventory growth in Qingdao is slowing down. The technical price has reached the lower limit of the operating center in the first half of last year, and the probability of further decline in the short - term is low [4][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Southeast Asia is about to start tapping, and domestic production is gradually increasing - In terms of supply from rubber - producing countries, according to ANRPC revised data, the rubber production in January 2025 continued the high - yield state of the fourth quarter of last year, with a year - on - year increase of 1.09 million tons. Although the output decreased rapidly in February compared with January, it still had a year - on - year increase of 750,000 tons. The supply during the low - yield season this year is looser than that of last year. It is expected that the data for March and April will also maintain a year - on - year positive state. - Overseas, after the Songkran Festival in Southeast Asian main producing areas, rubber tapping is expected to start gradually. In Thailand, some areas in the north and northeast are in trial tapping, and the south is expected to start normal tapping in late April and increase production in mid - May. In Vietnam, large - scale tapping has not started due to the dry season, and only individual state - owned farms have started trial tapping. - In China, the Yunnan production area is in the transition period of tapping, with slow growth of latex output. The Hainan production area is in the initial stage of tapping, with low overall latex output. Most processing plants have not officially started work, and only state - owned factories have started to purchase latex. It is expected that large - scale tapping will gradually start at the end of April or early May [5]. 3.2 Downstream tire start - up is strong and stable, and the terminal automobile market had a good start in the first quarter - In terms of downstream tire start - up, the overall performance in the first quarter of this year was good, especially in the second half after the Spring Festival. Although it has declined slightly recently due to the US tariff trade war, the start - up rate is still at a relatively high level. Currently, the all - steel tire start - up rate is maintained at 66.15%, and the semi - steel tire start - up rate is maintained at 78.52%, both higher than the best level in the second half of last year. - In terms of tire production, due to the high start - up rate in the first quarter, the tire output in the first two months increased by 15.2% year - on - year, reaching 176.5 million pieces. In terms of tire exports, the exports in January and February both achieved positive growth. Although the export volume in February decreased significantly compared with January, it still had a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. - In the terminal automobile market, in March, the production and sales of automobiles increased by 11.9% and 8.2% year - on - year respectively, and by 42.9% and 37% month - on - month respectively. In the first quarter, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles increased by 14.5% and 11.2% year - on - year respectively. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars increased significantly, while the performance of commercial vehicles was slightly weaker. The new energy vehicle market continued to heat up, with significant year - on - year and month - on - month increases [8][12][16]. 3.3 The growth of Qingdao inventory is slowing down, and the increase of futures warehouse receipts is stabilizing - According to the domestic inventory data, since the inventory in Qingdao started to increase again in November last year, the inventory has accumulated to a relatively high level. The inventory in Qingdao has increased from 413,000 tons at the beginning of November to 621,000 tons currently, with a cumulative increase of 50.36%. However, the growth rate has slowed down significantly recently, especially in the past two weeks, the increase has been less than 0.5%. - In terms of domestic futures inventory, since March, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber have continued to increase slightly, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - standard rubber futures, which had decreased before, have also increased again. Currently, the increase of Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts has slowed down, with the total amount exceeding 200,000 tons, and the 20 - standard rubber futures warehouse receipts have increased to 77,700 tons, with a steep increase rate [18][20]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Since the US launched a tariff trade war at the beginning of April, the rubber market has declined severely. The Shanghai rubber has broken through the high - level operating center since the fourth quarter of last year and reached the lower limit of the operating center in the first half of last year. The maximum phased decline this month was close to 2,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai rubber and more than 2,800 yuan/ton for 20 - standard rubber futures. - The tariff trade war has had a large short - term impact on the confidence of the industrial chain. The US tariff on China has increased to 125%. Although the rubber market has declined significantly recently, there is no need to be overly pessimistic from the perspective of fundamentals. The market may gradually digest the negative news around the 14,000 - yuan mark and wait for the production increase in each production area in the new rubber - tapping season and the further development of the US tariff trade war [24][25][26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff policy has a significant impact on the market, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has significantly lowered its oil price forecasts for this year and next, as well as the oil demand growth forecast. The crude oil market still faces large fluctuations, and investors are advised to operate cautiously. Short - term trading can be conducted in the 455 - 465 range, while long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump's tariff policy on China and the EIA's view that tariffs are casting a shadow over the global economic outlook and may drag down oil prices in the coming months. The EIA has also lowered its oil demand forecast until 2026. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On April 10, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $65.62 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $64.72 per barrel. The basis was 34.32 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 1.057 million barrels in the week ending April 4, contrary to the expected increase of 2.6 million barrels. The EIA inventory increased by 2.553 million barrels in the week ending April 4, more than the expected increase of 1.421 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.681 million barrels in the week ending April 4. As of April 10, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.777 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of April 1, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts decreased, while those of Brent crude oil main contracts increased, with a neutral assessment [3]. - **Expectation**: Overnight, crude oil gave back most of its previous gains. The tariff policy still has a large impact on the market. The EIA has significantly lowered its oil price forecasts for this year and next, as well as the oil demand growth forecast. Geopolitically, there is still great uncertainty about Iran's potential agreement with the US. Crude oil still faces large fluctuations, and investors are advised to operate cautiously. Short - term trading can be conducted in the 455 - 465 range, while long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **EIA Forecast Adjustment**: The EIA has significantly lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It now expects the Brent crude oil price to be $67.87 per barrel in 2025 (previously $74.22) and $61.48 per barrel in 2026 (previously $68.47). The WTI crude oil price is expected to be $63.88 per barrel in 2025 (previously $70.68) and $57.48 per barrel in 2026 (previously $64.97). The EIA has also cut the global oil demand growth forecast by 0.4 million barrels per day this year. In terms of production, the EIA expects US oil production to be 13.51 million barrels per day in 2025 (previously 13.61 million) and 13.56 million barrels per day in 2026 (previously 13.76 million) [5]. - **US Inflation Data**: In March, US consumer prices unexpectedly declined due to lower gasoline and used - vehicle prices. The consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1%, the first decline since May 2020. The core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, the smallest increase since March 2021. After the inflation data was released, traders bet that the Fed would cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year [5]. - **Fed Officials' Views**: Several Fed officials believe that Trump's suspension of some new import taxes may temporarily ease the pressure on the financial market, but the conditions for readjusting the US economic outlook still exist, including an increased risk of recession and potential inflation. Fed's Goolsbee said that tariffs bring significant uncertainty, and the Fed may still cut interest rates if the economy gets back on track. Dallas Fed President Logan believes that the Fed must prevent tariffs from causing more persistent inflation [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The resurgence of the Israeli - Palestinian conflict, increased US sanctions on Iran, and the risk of sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, the risk of tariff trade wars has increased significantly, and the sanctions on Russia may end [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil changed. Brent crude oil rose by 2.66 to $65.48, an increase of 4.23%. WTI crude oil rose by 2.77 to $62.35, an increase of 4.65%. SC crude oil fell by 13.70 to 468.0, a decrease of 2.84%. Oman crude oil fell by 3.22 to $61.86, a decrease of 4.95% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil also changed. UK Brent Dtd fell by 3.59 to $62.80, a decrease of 5.41%. WTI rose by 2.77 to $62.35, an increase of 4.65%. Oman crude oil fell by 3.27 to $62.22, a decrease of 4.99%. Shengli crude oil fell by 2.85 to $57.97, a decrease of 4.69%. Dubai crude oil fell by 3.39 to $62.03, a decrease of 5.18% [9]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of April 1, the net long positions of WTI crude oil funds were 167,685, a decrease of 12,873 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of April 1, the net long positions of Brent crude oil funds were 318,182, an increase of 56,112 [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent U.S. tariff policies on the electric vehicle (EV) supply chain, highlighting the significant increase in tariffs on various components, particularly lithium batteries, which could reshape competitive dynamics in the industry [2][4]. Tariff Impact on Electric Vehicle Supply Chain - The U.S. has implemented a 25% tariff on cars, engines, transmissions, and lithium batteries, leading to a cumulative tariff of 73.4% on power batteries and 64.9% on energy storage batteries [2]. - The overall tariff on new energy vehicles has reached 147.5%, which diminishes the competitive advantage of domestic battery manufacturers exporting to the U.S. [2][4]. Current Export Situation - In 2024, China is expected to export 116,000 vehicles to the U.S., accounting for only 1.81% of total exports, with electric vehicles making up an even smaller share [4]. - China’s lithium battery exports to the U.S. are projected to be $15.315 billion (approximately 110 billion RMB), representing 25% of total lithium battery exports, despite a 16% decline in export volume [4]. Impact on Battery and Material Companies - The tariff policies primarily affect the profitability of energy storage businesses in the U.S., but short-term impacts are mitigated as the market remains dominated by lithium iron phosphate batteries [5]. - Domestic material companies have limited direct exports to the U.S., with most exports going to Japan and South Korea, where they face similar tariff pressures [5][6]. Future Production Capacity - Domestic companies are gradually establishing production capacities in the U.S., with several firms expected to begin operations between 2026 and 2027, targeting nearly 100 GWh of capacity [6]. - As U.S. production capacity increases, the impact of tariffs is expected to diminish over time [6]. Indirect Effects on Domestic Market - The tariffs may lead to a shift in domestic production and pricing strategies, as companies with cost advantages are better positioned to withstand tariff pressures [7]. - The article suggests that some international orders may return to China, potentially increasing domestic production levels, but this could also create pressure on capacity planning and pricing strategies [8]. Long-term Strategic Considerations - The need for diversified manufacturing and supply chain strategies is emphasized, as companies must adapt to potential future tariff impacts and explore local market opportunities [8].