Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett emphasized the importance of trade with other countries and stated that trade should not be used as a weapon [1] Group 1: Trade and Investment Strategy - Buffett believes that significant trading opportunities are unlikely to appear immediately but may arise over the next five years [1] - He stated that the company will not sell its investments in Japan's five major trading companies in the near future, indicating a long-term investment strategy [1] - Buffett expressed that real estate investment is more time-consuming and less attractive compared to stock investment, highlighting the abundance of opportunities in the stock market [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Berkshire Hathaway reported a net profit of $4.603 billion for the first quarter, a 64% decrease compared to $12.702 billion in the same period last year [2] - The company's revenue for the first quarter was $89.725 billion, slightly down from $89.869 billion year-on-year [2] - As of March 31, 69% of the total fair value of its equity investments was concentrated in American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Chevron, and Coca-Cola [2]

2025年伯克希尔·哈撒韦年度股东大会定于5月3日在美国内布拉斯加州奥马哈市的CHI健康中心举行。这 一盛事对全球的投资者而言意义重大，除了向往年以往将为与会者提供洞察伯克希尔公司战略与未来发 展方向的重要机会，也有可能会将见证一个历史性时刻——95岁的沃伦·巴菲特极有可能以伯克希尔哈 撒韦CEO的身份最后一次完整出席年度股东大会。 毕竟，当前美股市场的估值水平可能很大程度上已经使得价值投资者举步维艰，在这样的环境下，即便 是伯克希尔这样的投资巨头也难以找到足够便宜的"好公司"。据媒体统计，在过去两年里，伯克希尔一 直在净卖出股票，包括2024年度第二和第三季度都大比例卖出了苹果的股票，而新购股票总额仅约为15 亿美元，这相比其庞大的现金储备来说，甚至连零头也没到。 自1965年接管这家濒临破产的纺织厂至今，巴菲特用60年时间创造了投资史上最伟大的传奇：将伯克希 尔的每股账面价值从19美元提升至约65万美元，年化复合收益率高达19.9%，相当于标普500指数同期 表现的3.6倍。 这次股东大会的特殊意义远不止于数字的堆砌。在特朗普政府发起贸易战、AI等科技革命重塑产业格 局的复杂环境下，伯克希尔正面临其60年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil continued to weaken. The lack of significant progress in trade agreements between the US and other major economies, along with a sharp decline in the US consumer confidence index and the likelihood of OPEC+ significantly increasing production in June, have raised market concerns and led to a continuous decline in oil prices. There are no short - term positive events. It is recommended that investors control their positions and hold light positions during the holiday. The short - term price is expected to range between 474 - 483, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2506, the fundamentals are neutral due to factors such as Trump's auto - tariff relief measures, OPEC+ members' potential proposal to accelerate production increase, and the decline in US consumer confidence. The basis is neutral as the spot price is at par with the futures price. Inventory data is bearish with increases in API and EIA inventories. The disk is bearish as the 20 - day moving average is downward and the price is below the average. The main positions are bullish as both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions are long and increasing [3]. 2. Recent News - Russia - Ukraine conflict: Putin insists on controlling four unoccupied regions in Ukraine, causing a deadlock in the negotiation efforts led by Trump. Direct contact between Putin and Trump is needed for further progress [5]. - Trade - related news: The credit ratings of the US and China are unlikely to be affected by the trade war in the short term. Trump says tariff negotiations with India are progressing well, and the US may have reached a trade agreement with a partner country, but the Treasury Secretary refuses to confirm [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The US threatens to sanction Iran, and Venezuelan crude oil also faces sanction risks [6]. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, the risk of tariff trade war has increased significantly, and Russian sanctions may end [6]. - Market drivers: The demand side is damaged by US policies, and Trump's rapidly changing policies also impact the market [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures prices: Brent crude oil settled at 63.28 (down 1.51, - 2.33%), WTI at 60.42 (down 1.63, - 2.63%), SC at 488.1 (down 6.10, - 1.23%), and Oman at 65.30 (down 2.47, - 3.64%) [7]. - Spot prices: UK Brent Dtd at 64.37 (down 1.35, - 2.05%), WTI at 60.42 (down 1.63, - 2.63%), Oman at 64.89 (down 2.11, - 3.15%), Shengli at 62.03 (down 1.51, - 2.38%), and Dubai at 64.67 (down 2.34, - 3.49%) [9]. - Inventory data: US API crude oil inventory increased by 376 million barrels in the week ending April 25, and EIA inventory increased by 24.4 million barrels in the week ending April 18 [3]. 5. Position Data - WTI crude oil main position: As of April 22, the net long position increased by 24,585 [16]. - Brent crude oil main position: As of April 22, the net long position increased by 29,432 [18].

在线500强投资 al 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 市 市 官 方 网 站 fat 服 热线 需 有 140 BU www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 馆 向 入 10 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/4/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX日银 | AU2506 | AG2506 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盗司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点机 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/4/28 | 3285. 72 | 32. 8 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2506 | AG2506 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 格跟踪 | 2025/4/25 | 3305. 65 | 33. 45 | 3316. 10 | 33. 73 | 787. 20 | 8280.00 | 785. 39 | 8272. 00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据 ...

"在现在可投资的各种资产中，股票投资是一个比较好的选择。" "我们现在持有的很多高分红 、 经营 稳固 、 商业模式相对比较简单的 资产 ， 都是 我们种 下 的 ' 良田 '， 这也是 我们的基本盘 。在市场动荡的时候，这些东西像是'定海神针'。" "现在世界 变化 很快，各种事件频 发 ，实际上 我们 没有办法去很好的预测会有哪些事情 出现 ，会 有 怎样的影响 。但 我觉得 ，做 投资是可以以不变应万变的 。" 宁泉资产创始人杨东 在今天（ 4月28日）兴证全球基金主办的中国投资人峰会中，面对当下"可为"的权益 市场，有谨慎，更有乐观。 杨东是业内富有盛名的具有战略思维的投资管理人，在重要的周期拐点时，市场总希望得到他的研判和感 觉。 这几年的市场对于大多数投资管理人是难熬的，很多公私募老将，在这段时间里面都有点"表现失速"，期间 回撤三四十还挺普遍。 宁泉一直是渠道和客户中口碑不错的样本： 低调，但持有感受好；牛市里跑的不会很快，熊市保持绝对收 益，震荡市也能抓结构机会。 创始人杨东卸任兴全基金总经理之后，于2018年1月成立宁泉资产。 宁泉旗下产品宁泉稳有益，截至最新净值日期2025年4月18日，今 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - Since the US launched a tariff trade war at the beginning of April, the rubber market has declined significantly. However, considering the fundamentals, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The supply side is at the beginning of the new rubber - tapping season, and it will take time for production to increase. The domestic demand side shows strong tire开工, and the inventory growth in Qingdao is slowing down. The technical price has reached the lower limit of the operating center in the first half of last year, and the probability of further decline in the short - term is low [4][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Southeast Asia is about to start tapping, and domestic production is gradually increasing - In terms of supply from rubber - producing countries, according to ANRPC revised data, the rubber production in January 2025 continued the high - yield state of the fourth quarter of last year, with a year - on - year increase of 1.09 million tons. Although the output decreased rapidly in February compared with January, it still had a year - on - year increase of 750,000 tons. The supply during the low - yield season this year is looser than that of last year. It is expected that the data for March and April will also maintain a year - on - year positive state. - Overseas, after the Songkran Festival in Southeast Asian main producing areas, rubber tapping is expected to start gradually. In Thailand, some areas in the north and northeast are in trial tapping, and the south is expected to start normal tapping in late April and increase production in mid - May. In Vietnam, large - scale tapping has not started due to the dry season, and only individual state - owned farms have started trial tapping. - In China, the Yunnan production area is in the transition period of tapping, with slow growth of latex output. The Hainan production area is in the initial stage of tapping, with low overall latex output. Most processing plants have not officially started work, and only state - owned factories have started to purchase latex. It is expected that large - scale tapping will gradually start at the end of April or early May [5]. 3.2 Downstream tire start - up is strong and stable, and the terminal automobile market had a good start in the first quarter - In terms of downstream tire start - up, the overall performance in the first quarter of this year was good, especially in the second half after the Spring Festival. Although it has declined slightly recently due to the US tariff trade war, the start - up rate is still at a relatively high level. Currently, the all - steel tire start - up rate is maintained at 66.15%, and the semi - steel tire start - up rate is maintained at 78.52%, both higher than the best level in the second half of last year. - In terms of tire production, due to the high start - up rate in the first quarter, the tire output in the first two months increased by 15.2% year - on - year, reaching 176.5 million pieces. In terms of tire exports, the exports in January and February both achieved positive growth. Although the export volume in February decreased significantly compared with January, it still had a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. - In the terminal automobile market, in March, the production and sales of automobiles increased by 11.9% and 8.2% year - on - year respectively, and by 42.9% and 37% month - on - month respectively. In the first quarter, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles increased by 14.5% and 11.2% year - on - year respectively. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars increased significantly, while the performance of commercial vehicles was slightly weaker. The new energy vehicle market continued to heat up, with significant year - on - year and month - on - month increases [8][12][16]. 3.3 The growth of Qingdao inventory is slowing down, and the increase of futures warehouse receipts is stabilizing - According to the domestic inventory data, since the inventory in Qingdao started to increase again in November last year, the inventory has accumulated to a relatively high level. The inventory in Qingdao has increased from 413,000 tons at the beginning of November to 621,000 tons currently, with a cumulative increase of 50.36%. However, the growth rate has slowed down significantly recently, especially in the past two weeks, the increase has been less than 0.5%. - In terms of domestic futures inventory, since March, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber have continued to increase slightly, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - standard rubber futures, which had decreased before, have also increased again. Currently, the increase of Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts has slowed down, with the total amount exceeding 200,000 tons, and the 20 - standard rubber futures warehouse receipts have increased to 77,700 tons, with a steep increase rate [18][20]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Since the US launched a tariff trade war at the beginning of April, the rubber market has declined severely. The Shanghai rubber has broken through the high - level operating center since the fourth quarter of last year and reached the lower limit of the operating center in the first half of last year. The maximum phased decline this month was close to 2,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai rubber and more than 2,800 yuan/ton for 20 - standard rubber futures. - The tariff trade war has had a large short - term impact on the confidence of the industrial chain. The US tariff on China has increased to 125%. Although the rubber market has declined significantly recently, there is no need to be overly pessimistic from the perspective of fundamentals. The market may gradually digest the negative news around the 14,000 - yuan mark and wait for the production increase in each production area in the new rubber - tapping season and the further development of the US tariff trade war [24][25][26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff policy has a significant impact on the market, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has significantly lowered its oil price forecasts for this year and next, as well as the oil demand growth forecast. The crude oil market still faces large fluctuations, and investors are advised to operate cautiously. Short - term trading can be conducted in the 455 - 465 range, while long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump's tariff policy on China and the EIA's view that tariffs are casting a shadow over the global economic outlook and may drag down oil prices in the coming months. The EIA has also lowered its oil demand forecast until 2026. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On April 10, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $65.62 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $64.72 per barrel. The basis was 34.32 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 1.057 million barrels in the week ending April 4, contrary to the expected increase of 2.6 million barrels. The EIA inventory increased by 2.553 million barrels in the week ending April 4, more than the expected increase of 1.421 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.681 million barrels in the week ending April 4. As of April 10, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.777 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of April 1, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts decreased, while those of Brent crude oil main contracts increased, with a neutral assessment [3]. - **Expectation**: Overnight, crude oil gave back most of its previous gains. The tariff policy still has a large impact on the market. The EIA has significantly lowered its oil price forecasts for this year and next, as well as the oil demand growth forecast. Geopolitically, there is still great uncertainty about Iran's potential agreement with the US. Crude oil still faces large fluctuations, and investors are advised to operate cautiously. Short - term trading can be conducted in the 455 - 465 range, while long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **EIA Forecast Adjustment**: The EIA has significantly lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It now expects the Brent crude oil price to be $67.87 per barrel in 2025 (previously $74.22) and $61.48 per barrel in 2026 (previously $68.47). The WTI crude oil price is expected to be $63.88 per barrel in 2025 (previously $70.68) and $57.48 per barrel in 2026 (previously $64.97). The EIA has also cut the global oil demand growth forecast by 0.4 million barrels per day this year. In terms of production, the EIA expects US oil production to be 13.51 million barrels per day in 2025 (previously 13.61 million) and 13.56 million barrels per day in 2026 (previously 13.76 million) [5]. - **US Inflation Data**: In March, US consumer prices unexpectedly declined due to lower gasoline and used - vehicle prices. The consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1%, the first decline since May 2020. The core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, the smallest increase since March 2021. After the inflation data was released, traders bet that the Fed would cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year [5]. - **Fed Officials' Views**: Several Fed officials believe that Trump's suspension of some new import taxes may temporarily ease the pressure on the financial market, but the conditions for readjusting the US economic outlook still exist, including an increased risk of recession and potential inflation. Fed's Goolsbee said that tariffs bring significant uncertainty, and the Fed may still cut interest rates if the economy gets back on track. Dallas Fed President Logan believes that the Fed must prevent tariffs from causing more persistent inflation [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The resurgence of the Israeli - Palestinian conflict, increased US sanctions on Iran, and the risk of sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, the risk of tariff trade wars has increased significantly, and the sanctions on Russia may end [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil changed. Brent crude oil rose by 2.66 to $65.48, an increase of 4.23%. WTI crude oil rose by 2.77 to $62.35, an increase of 4.65%. SC crude oil fell by 13.70 to 468.0, a decrease of 2.84%. Oman crude oil fell by 3.22 to $61.86, a decrease of 4.95% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil also changed. UK Brent Dtd fell by 3.59 to $62.80, a decrease of 5.41%. WTI rose by 2.77 to $62.35, an increase of 4.65%. Oman crude oil fell by 3.27 to $62.22, a decrease of 4.99%. Shengli crude oil fell by 2.85 to $57.97, a decrease of 4.69%. Dubai crude oil fell by 3.39 to $62.03, a decrease of 5.18% [9]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of April 1, the net long positions of WTI crude oil funds were 167,685, a decrease of 12,873 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of April 1, the net long positions of Brent crude oil funds were 318,182, an increase of 56,112 [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent U.S. tariff policies on the electric vehicle (EV) supply chain, highlighting the significant increase in tariffs on various components, particularly lithium batteries, which could reshape competitive dynamics in the industry [2][4]. Tariff Impact on Electric Vehicle Supply Chain - The U.S. has implemented a 25% tariff on cars, engines, transmissions, and lithium batteries, leading to a cumulative tariff of 73.4% on power batteries and 64.9% on energy storage batteries [2]. - The overall tariff on new energy vehicles has reached 147.5%, which diminishes the competitive advantage of domestic battery manufacturers exporting to the U.S. [2][4]. Current Export Situation - In 2024, China is expected to export 116,000 vehicles to the U.S., accounting for only 1.81% of total exports, with electric vehicles making up an even smaller share [4]. - China’s lithium battery exports to the U.S. are projected to be $15.315 billion (approximately 110 billion RMB), representing 25% of total lithium battery exports, despite a 16% decline in export volume [4]. Impact on Battery and Material Companies - The tariff policies primarily affect the profitability of energy storage businesses in the U.S., but short-term impacts are mitigated as the market remains dominated by lithium iron phosphate batteries [5]. - Domestic material companies have limited direct exports to the U.S., with most exports going to Japan and South Korea, where they face similar tariff pressures [5][6]. Future Production Capacity - Domestic companies are gradually establishing production capacities in the U.S., with several firms expected to begin operations between 2026 and 2027, targeting nearly 100 GWh of capacity [6]. - As U.S. production capacity increases, the impact of tariffs is expected to diminish over time [6]. Indirect Effects on Domestic Market - The tariffs may lead to a shift in domestic production and pricing strategies, as companies with cost advantages are better positioned to withstand tariff pressures [7]. - The article suggests that some international orders may return to China, potentially increasing domestic production levels, but this could also create pressure on capacity planning and pricing strategies [8]. Long-term Strategic Considerations - The need for diversified manufacturing and supply chain strategies is emphasized, as companies must adapt to potential future tariff impacts and explore local market opportunities [8].