美联储"按兵不动"。 北京时间1月29日凌晨3点，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率区间维持在3.50%—3.75%不变，符合市场普遍预期。这是美联储自2025年9月起连续三次会议降息后首次 暂停行动。美联储决议公布后，美元指数大幅拉升，日内一度大涨超1%，美股三大指数波动不大。贵金属全线大涨，现货黄金大涨4.5%，站上5400美元/盎司；现 货白银大涨4.2%，报116.6美元/盎司。 随后，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的讲话也释放了诸多政策信号。他表示，如果看到"关税通胀"触顶后回落，将可以进一步放松政策， 加息并非是任何人对 下一步行动的基本假设。 据CME"美联储观察"，截至发稿，美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为13.5%，维持利率不变的概率为86.5%；美联储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为24.1%，维持 利率不变的概率为74%，累计降息50个基点的概率为2.0%。 美联储宣布 美东时间1月28日，美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)发布了最新的利率决议，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%—3.75%不变，符合市场预期。 在此之前，美联储已分别在连续三次会议（去年9月、10月和12月）上降息25个 ...

仅用一个词就能定义2025年美国的消费者：K型分化。 2025年，经济上的贫富差距进一步拉大，处于收入分配中间阶层的群体因劳动力市场疲软倍感压力，同 时担忧关税引发通胀，导致市场情绪急剧恶化。 截至11月，失业率升至4.6%，创下四年新高。密歇根大学发布的年度最终消费者信心数据显示，近三 分之二的受访者预计未来一年失业率将上升。 密歇根大学消费者调查总监Joanne Hsu表示："尽管年末出现了一些改善迹象，但消费者信心仍比2024 年12月低了近30%，毕竟'钱包缩水'问题依然主导着消费者对经济的看法。" 美国银行研究所去年12月22日发布的一份报告显示，11月处于收入分配前三分之一的消费者支出同比增 长了4%，为四年来最快增速。而处于收入分配后三分之一的家庭，同期支出增长还不到1%。 Telsey Advisory的分析师Joe Feldman表示："大家都在想方设法省钱，过日子更加精打细算。" Feldman补充道："中低收入群体依然面临巨大压力，他们的关注点非常集中在满足日常需求的基础商品 上。" 沃尔玛在多份财报中形容美国消费者变得更加"挑剔"。而一元店连锁巨头则报告称，随着经济不确定性 迫使更多家 ...

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. November CPI year-on-year growth is 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%[1] - The month-on-month growth from September to November is 0.2%, down from the previous value of 0.3%[1] - Core CPI year-on-year is 2.6%, below the expected 3.0% and the previous value of 3.0%[1] Price Trends - Non-core prices, including gasoline and food, showed a downward trend, with food prices year-on-year at 2.6%, down from 3.1%[2] - Energy prices year-on-year increased to 4.2%, primarily due to higher fuel (11.3%) and electricity (6.9%) prices[2] - Core goods prices year-on-year are at 1.4%, slightly down from 1.5%[2] Data Reliability Concerns - The reliability of the November CPI data is questioned due to the lack of October data collection caused by the government shutdown[3] - The absence of October data may lead to an underestimation of the CPI, particularly in housing, which has a significant weight in the overall CPI calculation[3] Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the CPI release, the market slightly increased expectations for a rate cut in March 2026 to 56.8%[5] - The overall sentiment remains cautious due to concerns over the quality of the CPI data, despite the lower-than-expected inflation figures[5] - If inflation in Q1 2026 remains below expectations and the job market does not improve significantly, the Federal Reserve may cut rates once in the first half of the year and approximately twice throughout the year[5]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - On December 10, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis points rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%–3.75%[1] - The Fed's statement was more dovish than market expectations, with a 90% pre-meeting consensus on a rate cut, but concerns about it being the last cut were prevalent[1] - The Fed restarted short-term bond purchases, with a monthly expansion of $40 billion, to maintain ample reserve levels[4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 while lowering inflation and unemployment rate expectations, indicating a marginal improvement in the economic outlook[1] - The unemployment rate description was updated to reflect a more pronounced weakening in the labor market, with average monthly non-farm job gains since April being only 40,000[1] - The dot plot indicated that four members expect the 2025 rate to be between 3.75% and 4.00%, showing internal dissent within the FOMC[1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the dovish Fed statement, market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 were adjusted, leading to an increase in major U.S. stock indices and a decline in bond yields[1] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicated a significant probability of rate cuts in 2026, with expectations for approximately two cuts throughout the year[5][11]

美联储谨慎鸽派降息，预期明年经济转好 ——12 月美国 FOMC 点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 宏观经济 事件点评 分析师 康明怡 电话：021-25102911 邮箱：kangmy@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480519090001 事件： 美联储降息 25bp,政策利率降至 3.5~3.75%。 主要观点： 一、美联储观点 美联储对经济预期略有上升。美联储评估近期经济继续温和增长，其中消费者支出保持稳健，商业固定投资继续扩张，但地 产市场仍旧疲软。劳动力市场逐渐冷却，通胀略有上行。联邦政府临时关门可能会对当前季度 GDP 有所影响，但这种影响 大概率被政府重新开门后下个季度更高的增长所抵消。在 SEP 中，参与者对 GDP 增速的中位数略有提高，分别为今年 1.7% 以及明年 2.3%。鲍威尔认为明年经济更好来自四个因素，分别是财政政策刺激、AI 投资、政府重新开门，以及消费仍然稳 健。 继续降息仍主要源自非农数据疲软。鲍威尔对就业市场的观点与前两次记者会基本一致。失业率略有上升，工作报酬相比于 年初显著下降。鲍威尔继续认为目前劳动力供需双方均明显减少。劳动供给的下降来自移民下降 ...

我们面对的是联储的"人造迷雾"，强行制造降息悬念，增加预期弹性；已有数据完全足 以支撑12月再次降息的发生。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 在10月的FOMC中，鲍威尔将当前环境称之为"迷雾中开车，需小心行驶"，并将市场预期向12月不降 息方向引导。自那之后，联储官员普遍转向鹰派，强调通胀的上行风险并支持12月暂停降息：12月降 息预期一度从完全定价跌至不足30%。 鲍威尔的本意或是引导市场定价预期的回摆，保持预期管理的有效性，但从结果来看有些玩脱了，至少 9月非农的数据指向了12月继续降息的必要性。 由于非官方的ADP小非农以及谘商会等数据在9-10月表现较差，此前市场对于9月非农的新增就业预 期并不高（约5万人左右水平）；与此同时，在"供需双弱"的背景下，市场却并没有对失业率的上行形 成一致预期。换言之，此前6-8月失业率的再度上行并没有得到足够的重视，但这恰恰是9月非农报告 中最"扎眼"的部分。 哪怕9月新增就业再怎么超预期，也仅在11.9万人水平；考虑到6月与8月都是负增长，在如此大的波 动中，更无法得出非农已经"企稳"的结论。更何况，从三个月平均增长水平来看，与今年上半年都有 明显差距。 在劳动力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Mary Daly, suggests that the U.S. economy may be experiencing a demand slowdown, but inflation related to tariffs appears to be under control. She emphasizes the need for an "open mindset" in discussions about potential further interest rate cuts this year [1]. Group 1: Economic Analysis - Daly analyzes the current economic situation, indicating that slowing wage growth points to a "negative demand shock." Despite high price growth, overall inflation levels are manageable, and import tariffs have not broadly increased price levels [1]. - She specifically highlights that the impact of tariffs on inflation is limited, primarily affecting goods rather than services, and inflation expectations remain anchored near target levels [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - Daly draws important historical comparisons, likening the current situation to the 1970s and 1990s. She warns against repeating the mistakes of the 1970s while also recognizing the potential benefits of the balanced policies of the 1990s, stressing the importance of not stifling economic growth and job creation [3]. - As a future voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Daly's policy views will gain more influence, although she currently does not have voting power [3].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 3.75% to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1][2] - This decision aims to prevent a further rise in unemployment, with the current rate being the lowest in nearly three years [1] - Market expectations for a third consecutive rate cut in December were tempered after Fed Chair Powell's comments, leading to a decline in stock prices, except for a slight increase in the Nasdaq [1] Group 2 - There are significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding the extent of economic stimulus needed, highlighting a lack of consensus among the 19 policymakers [2] - The decision was made without a month of critical economic data, complicating the Fed's understanding of the economic situation [2] - Powell emphasized the uncertainty surrounding tariff-induced inflation, noting that while overall inflation has not significantly risen, the impact of tariffs may take time to fully affect consumer prices [3] Group 3 - The upcoming selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is under scrutiny, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin leading the process, and a shortlist of candidates has been narrowed down to five [4] - The new chair will face the challenge of navigating rising inflation and slowing growth amid conflicting views within the Fed regarding the impact of current government policies [5] - The confirmation of the new chair will require Senate approval, adding another layer of complexity to the transition [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 3.75% to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 and the second this year [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The recent rate cut aims to prevent a further rise in unemployment, with the current rate being the lowest in nearly three years [2]. - Market expectations for a third consecutive rate cut in December were adjusted following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, leading to a decline in stock prices, except for a slight increase in the Nasdaq [2]. - There is a notable division among Fed policymakers regarding the extent of economic stimulus needed, with Powell acknowledging sharp disagreements on future rate paths [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Context and Inflation - The decision comes amid signs of "mild stagflation," characterized by high inflation and weak employment [2]. - Powell indicated that the impact of tariffs on inflation remains uncertain, with the latest consumer price index showing no significant rise in overall inflation despite new tariffs [3]. - Concerns have been raised about the Fed's ability to make informed decisions due to a lack of critical economic data, particularly with the government shutdown affecting data releases [3]. Group 3: Leadership Transition at the Federal Reserve - Attention is focused on the selection of the next Fed Chair, with Treasury Secretary Becerra leading the search, narrowing the list to five candidates [4]. - The current Chair Powell's term ends in May, and an announcement regarding his successor is expected as early as December [5]. - The new Chair will face challenges from the current administration's aggressive economic policies, which are contributing to rising inflation and slowing growth, amidst evident divisions within the Fed [5].

本文字数：2781，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 北京时间10月30日凌晨2点，美联储公布利率决议。 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以10-2的方式决定下调利率区间25个基点至3.75%-4.00%。反对票中，美联 储理事米兰希望降息50个基点，而堪萨斯联储主席施密德倾向于按兵不动。美联储主席鲍威尔承认，委员会内部 分歧较大，12月降息并非已成定局。 受此影响，美股盘中跳水，国际金价走弱。 美联储内部分歧 决议声明称，现有指标表明，经济活动一直以温和的速度扩张。今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，但截至8 月仍处于较低水平；最近的指标与这些情况相符。通货膨胀率自今年早些时候以来有所上升，仍处于略高的水 平。 2025.10. 30 结束量化紧缩 美联储在政策声明中决定于12月1日结束量化紧缩（QT)。委员会同时计划调整投资组合结构——将到期抵押贷 款支持证券（MBS）的本金收益重新投资于短期国债（Treasury bills）。 在新闻发布会伊始，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，政府停摆前获取的数据显示，经济活动增长轨迹可能略强于此前预 期，这主要得益于消费支出的强劲表现。 对于政府停摆的影响，鲍威尔认 ...