Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the diplomatic challenges faced by South Korean President Lee Jae-myung in his meetings with U.S. President Donald Trump and other leaders, highlighting the unequal power dynamics and the pressure on South Korea to comply with U.S. demands, particularly regarding tariffs and investments [1][3][5]. Group 1: Diplomatic Engagements - Lee Jae-myung's meetings with Trump and other leaders are primarily focused on the ongoing U.S.-Russia war and the associated economic implications for South Korea [3]. - The necessity for Lee to meet Trump stems from the pressing issue of tariffs, which have significantly impacted South Korea's economy [5]. - Lee's visit to Japan before meeting Trump indicates a strategic move to explore negotiation tactics and improve international relations, despite the potential backlash from the U.S. [9][11]. Group 2: Economic Pressures - The U.S. has set conditions for lowering tariffs, requiring South Korea to invest over a hundred billion dollars in the U.S. and purchase American goods, which reflects an unequal treaty dynamic [5][7]. - South Korea's economy is heavily reliant on the U.S., and any refusal to comply with U.S. demands could lead to severe economic repercussions [7][20]. - Lee's attempts to balance relations with both the U.S. and China highlight the precarious position of South Korea as a smaller nation caught between larger powers [19][22]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - The article emphasizes the political implications of Lee's actions, noting that his refusal to attend a Chinese military parade while simultaneously seeking U.S. favor could alienate both sides [17][19]. - The unequal treatment Lee received during his visit to the U.S., compared to Trump's reception of other leaders, underscores the subordinate status of South Korea in the U.S.-South Korea alliance [13][15]. - Lee's diplomatic strategy appears to be a balancing act, but it risks offending both the U.S. and China, leaving South Korea in a vulnerable position [20][22].

Group 1 - The Chinese government has reiterated its position on tariffs, particularly in response to U.S. President Trump's statement regarding a 200% tariff on rare earth magnets if China does not ensure supply [1] - China maintains an open attitude towards potential visits from U.S. President Trump, emphasizing the importance of mutual respect and cooperation in U.S.-China relations [1] - The Chinese government highlights the strategic role of high-level diplomatic exchanges in stabilizing and promoting healthy development of U.S.-China relations [1]

Report Investment Ratings - **Buy with Caution**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, and Live Pigs [1] - **Hold for Observation**: Soybean, Egg [1] - **Buy Opportunistically**: Soybean Oil and Palm Oil [1][4] Core Views - Short - term focus on weather, policies, and import soybean performance for domestic soybeans; cautiously optimistic about the soybean meal market; consider buying soybean and palm oil at low prices; maintain the judgment of short - term rebound in rapeseed futures prices; and expect Dalian corn futures to continue to be weak at the bottom [2][3][4][6][7] Summary by Category Soybean - Domestic soybean prices recovered quickly after a sharp drop, with a provincial reserve rotation auction of 0.65 tons this Friday. The weather is generally favorable for growth, and the price gap with imported soybeans has rebounded. In the US, soybean pod numbers in some states are positive, and the US Soybean Association urges to reopen the Chinese market [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The latest good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 68%, higher than expected. Future weeks may see less rain in the US. Domestically, soybean meal spot prices have risen, and the supply of imported beans in the fourth quarter is uncertain. The market is cautiously optimistic about soybean meal [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US crop inspections show positive soybean pod numbers. The market is worried about bio - fuel exemptions in the US, which has pressured soybean oil prices. Domestically, soybean and palm oil have seen a position - reducing correction. Consider buying at low prices in the long - term [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal is in a weak rebound, and rapeseed oil has fallen with the vegetable oil sector but with the smallest decline. The supply of Australian rapeseed is tight before the new crop arrives in November. A rapeseed oil trading event involving 4574 tons will be held this Friday [6] Corn - As of August 19, 15 auctions of imported corn by Sinograin totaled about 347.6 tons, with a low成交 rate of 36.38%. New - season Xinjiang corn has affected market expectations, and Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures have weakened with increased positions. Spot prices are slightly stronger, but secondary fattening is cautious. The supply of live pigs is expected to be high in the second half of the year. It is recommended to hedge at high prices [8] Eggs - Egg futures have rebounded slightly, while spot prices are weak. In the medium - term, high production capacity may lead to price drops. Short - term attention should be paid to capital and seasonal factors [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy with Caution (★☆☆)**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Hogs [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1] - **Analysis Unclear**: Soybean, Eggs [1] 2. Core Views - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: USDA's August report was bullish for US soybeans, and dry conditions in the US may challenge new - season soybean growth. China's soybean supply is sufficient in the short - term but uncertain in the long - term. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish, and investors can enter on pullbacks [3]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Indonesian policies and market expectations have driven up palm oil prices. In the short - term, there is a risk of increased volatility or correction, but in the long - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed market was pressured by import expectations last week. However, considering the possible timing of Australian rapeseed imports, there may be a short - term rebound in rapeseed futures prices, and a short - term long strategy is advisable [6]. - **Corn**: The continuous release of imported corn has affected market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7]. - **Live Hogs**: Supply pressure will keep live hog prices weak in the second half of the year. The 11 - contract has rebounded and then fallen, and industrial players are advised to hedge on rallies [8]. - **Eggs**: High production capacity has pressured egg prices. In the short - term, there is a risk of profit - taking by short - selling funds, and the market is in a contango situation [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean - Last week, soybean prices fluctuated greatly due to the influence of surrounding varieties and the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on rapeseed. However, due to weak fundamentals, prices quickly fell after a short - term rise. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is shrinking. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy impacts [2] Soybean Meal - USDA's August report was bullish for US soybeans. In the next two weeks, dry conditions in the US may challenge new - season soybean growth. China's soybean supply is sufficient in the short - term but uncertain in the long - term. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish, and investors can enter on pullbacks [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Indonesian policies and market expectations have driven up palm oil prices. The strength of the palm oil market is mainly driven by the Indonesian market. The relative valuation of palm oil is not low. In the short - term, there is a risk of increased volatility or correction, but in the long - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market was pressured by import expectations last week. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to be good. There is a possibility that Australian rapeseed will enter the Chinese market, but it is uncertain when. The rapeseed futures prices may rebound in the short - term, and a short - term long strategy is advisable [6] Corn - As of August 18th, the low - volume trading of imported corn auctions has affected market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The supply of live hogs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and prices are likely to remain weak. The 11 - contract has rebounded and then fallen, and industrial players are advised to hedge on rallies [8] Eggs - High production capacity has pressured egg prices. In the short - term, there is a risk of profit - taking by short - selling funds, and the market is in a contango situation [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - end is relatively bullish before the September Fed interest - rate meeting, and the bottom support for domestic and overseas aluminum prices is becoming more obvious. It is advisable to be bullish after price corrections. For alumina, market speculation sentiment has cooled, and prices are returning to the weak fundamental situation, with short - term prices expected to fluctuate weakly above 3000 - 3100 yuan [2][77]. - In the aluminum market, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is slowly increasing, while demand shows seasonal weakness but may be driven by photovoltaic and automotive sectors. Aluminum inventory is approaching its peak, which may support prices. In the alumina market, raw material supply is affected by multiple factors, production capacity has marginal changes, and the import window is opened periodically [2][77]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Outlook for Aluminum Macro - The US July PPI soared, reducing traders' bets on a Fed rate cut in September. The US is negotiating tariff agreements, and the tariff issue between the US and India has attracted attention in the aluminum market. The Russian and US presidents are scheduled to hold a meeting [2]. Industrial Supply - In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to increase to around 4430 tons, mainly from the复产 of Anshun Aluminum Plant and Baise Yinhai. Some replacement and transfer projects have production plans, and new replacement capacities are expected to be put into production in 2026 - 2027. South32 expects a production decline at Mozal in the 2026 fiscal year [2]. Industrial Demand - Apparent demand shows seasonal weakness. In July 2025, China's unforged aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. In August, the increase in photovoltaic module production may drive aluminum consumption, and the automotive industry also contributes to aluminum demand [2]. Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the total inventory of aluminum ingots and billets increased slightly, with the increase rate slowing down. Aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to reach its peak soon. LME aluminum inventory has an impact on price support [2]. Trading Logic and Strategy - Before the September Fed meeting, the non - ferrous metal market is mainly influenced by interest - rate cut and inflation expectations. It is advisable to be bullish on aluminum prices after corrections. Pay attention to the opportunity of the widening of the monthly spread when aluminum ingot inventory starts to decline. For derivatives, it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Strategy Outlook for Alumina Raw Material End - Domestic bauxite mines in Shanxi and Henan are affected by multiple factors and have difficulty releasing production capacity in the short term. Guinea's bauxite shipments recovered in the first week of August, but the supply of spot goods decreased. The current bauxite supply is sufficient in absolute terms, and the spot price is expected to remain firm [77]. Supply End - As of mid - August, the national alumina operating capacity increased, but the actual production decreased marginally. Some alumina enterprises in Guangxi and Shanxi are affected by maintenance and ore supply, and the southern import window is opened [77]. Trading Strategy - The alumina price is expected to fluctuate weakly above 3000 - 3100 yuan in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [77]. Other Aspects Aluminum Market - LME market performance, aluminum ingot import and export profits, and speculative fund net positions are presented through charts [4][6][8]. - Domestic and overseas aluminum inventory performance, including social inventory, bonded - area inventory, and LME inventory, is shown in charts [15][16][18]. - Price differences, including regional price differences, basis differences, and monthly spread differences, are presented in charts [20][22][27]. - Aluminum primary processing product processing fees, such as aluminum rod and aluminum pole processing fees, are shown in charts [32][36]. - The recycled aluminum alloy market has supply - demand imbalances, with tight supply and weak demand. There are opportunities for arbitrage [38]. - The supply - side situation of electrolytic aluminum includes production volume, profit, and capacity change expectations, both domestically and overseas [45][47][49]. - Aluminum processing enterprise start - up rates show a mild recovery, with different trends in various sub - sectors [54]. - Demand from downstream industries such as photovoltaic, automotive, real estate, power, home appliances, and exports has different performance characteristics [57][60][63][66][69][72]. Alumina Market - Bauxite resource tax rates and the comparison of different mines are presented [83][85]. - Alumina profit has increased, and different regions have different profit levels [95][98][99]. - Alumina supply and demand are in a state of theoretical excess, and production capacity and output have marginal changes [100][102]. - The alumina import window is opened periodically, and net imports may decline slightly [103][109]. - Alumina social inventory has a marginal decline, and the supply of spot goods is expected to improve [110][113][117]. - Alumina spot trading is in a state of discount and light trading volume [118]. - Alumina overseas and domestic price trends and transaction prices are presented [119][120][123]. - Alumina warehouse receipts have increased significantly [124].

Group 1 - A recent poll indicates that a majority of Swiss citizens oppose making concessions to the U.S. regarding tariffs, despite the potential negative impact on the Swiss economy [1][3] - Approximately two-thirds of respondents believe that the new U.S. tariff measures will severely impact the Swiss economy, with only 5% believing there will be little to no damage [3] - The U.S. has imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss imports, the highest among European countries, which poses significant pressure on the export-oriented Swiss economy [5] Group 2 - About 18% of Swiss exports are directed to the U.S., and nearly 60% of goods exported to the U.S. will be affected by the new tariffs [5] - Half of the respondents in the poll believe that Switzerland should rely more on domestic products, even if it leads to higher prices [3] - 41% of respondents oppose significant investments by Swiss companies in the U.S. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market continues its upward trend, with the Dow Jones potentially reaching new highs, although synchronized increases across major indices could signal a clearer reversal [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are experiencing relatively moderate gains, while the Dow Jones and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index show signs of acceleration [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has been consolidating in the 5500-5800 point range for over a month, indicating significant resistance [1] - Recent breakthroughs in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lack sufficient volume, raising concerns about a potential "false breakout" leading to a genuine pullback that could negatively impact tech stocks [1] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - The decline in oil prices may be masking underlying inflation pressures, as energy constitutes a significant portion of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - Core CPI, excluding energy factors, has shown a slight increase, although market expectations for interest rate cuts have overshadowed inflation concerns [1] Group 3: Tariff Implications - Tariff issues have seemingly faded from market focus, but new tariffs that took effect on August 1 are expected to have a gradual impact over the next 3-6 months [1] - Upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data release is anticipated to be significant for market analysis [1]

Core Viewpoint - A recent poll indicates that despite the potential economic harm from high U.S. tariffs, a majority of Swiss citizens oppose making concessions to the U.S. [1] Group 1: Poll Results - Nearly two-thirds of respondents believe Switzerland should not yield to pressure, even with U.S. tariffs on Swiss goods reaching 39% [1] - Two-thirds of participants think the new tariffs will severely impact the economy, while only 5% believe the economy will be minimally affected [1] - Half of the respondents feel Switzerland should rely more on domestic products, even if it leads to higher prices [1] Group 2: Investment Sentiment - 41% of respondents oppose significant investments by Swiss companies in the U.S., while only 15% support such investments [1] Group 3: Economic Impact - The U.S. tariffs, effective from August 7, are expected to exert significant pressure on Switzerland's export-oriented economy, with nearly 60% of goods exported to the U.S. being affected [1]

Group 1 - The decline in corrugated cardboard sales is seen as a non-traditional economic indicator, suggesting potential retail demand adjustments in the near future [1] - U.S. cardboard shipments have reached their lowest second-quarter level since 2015, with a reported 5% year-over-year decline in daily shipments from International Paper [1] - Smurfit Kappa Group reported a 4.5% drop in North American corrugated cardboard sales, the largest decline across all its operational regions [1] Group 2 - The seasonal nature of the cardboard industry allows it to reflect real-time purchasing and manufacturing activities, serving as an early warning signal for retail spending [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led companies to hesitate in stockpiling large volumes of packaging materials, impacting packaging demand [2] - FedEx and UPS have not updated their annual guidance due to the unclear situation, with UPS noting that consumer confidence is at a near historical low [2] Group 3 - There is a lack of organic growth in consumer goods, with promotions like "buy two, get one free" indicating weak demand [3] - Low housing transaction volumes are leading to decreased purchases of large items that require packaging, such as refrigerators and sofas [3] - The surge in packaging demand during the early COVID-19 pandemic was a temporary phenomenon, and the industry continues to face challenges from high costs and outdated facilities [3] Group 4 - The closure of a factory by International Paper has significant local economic impacts, including school closures due to reduced tax revenue [4] - There is hope that a revival in U.S. manufacturing could boost local product transportation and packaging demand, but this is contingent on offsetting the effects of reduced imports [4] - The overall outlook for cardboard manufacturers remains pessimistic, with all tracked indicators pointing towards a challenging environment [4]

Group 1 - A majority of Swiss citizens oppose making concessions to the United States regarding tariff issues, with nearly two-thirds of respondents believing Switzerland should not yield to pressure [1] - Half of the respondents believe Switzerland should rely more on domestic products, while 41% oppose significant investments by Swiss companies in the United States [2] - The new 39% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Swiss imports took effect on July 7, significantly impacting the Swiss economy, with nearly 60% of goods exported from Switzerland to the U.S. affected [2]