1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Soybean meal and live pigs prices decline, palm oil and sugar prices rise, while cotton, corn, eggs, and jujubes show fluctuating trends, and apples rise steadily. Each product's price movement is influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international trade, and seasonal characteristics [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Movement**: The soybean meal 2509 contract drops significantly due to ample supply and long - position liquidation. The upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks may improve soybean imports, and the domestic soybean meal supply increases with port arrivals and high oil - mill operation rates, leading to inventory accumulation over 1 million tons [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract breaks below short - term moving averages, indicating a weakening trend. The strategy is to close long positions and hold light short positions, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3050 [2]. Palm Oil - **Price Movement**: The palm oil 2509 contract rises strongly, hitting a new high. Indonesian palm oil exports surge, with a 4.27% month - on - month decline in inventory in May and a nearly 50% month - on - month increase in exports. In June, exports increased by 30.5% month - on - month. The active promotion of the biodiesel plan and rising domestic import costs support the price [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract shows a strong upward trend above all moving averages, with a bullish moving - average arrangement and an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8980 and resistance at 9150 [3]. Live Pigs - **Price Movement**: The live pig 2509 contract drops sharply. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' stable - market policy dampens short - term production - reduction expectations. Weak demand, high temperatures, and increased alternative consumption lead to sluggish pork sales [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract breaks below short - term moving averages, indicating a weakening trend. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 14280 and resistance at 14500 [5]. Cotton - **Price Movement**: The cotton 2509 contract oscillates with a negative close. The domestic commercial cotton inventory consumption accelerates, but potential quota increases may add to the supply. Import volume from January to June is 460,000 tons, a 74% year - on - year decrease. The downstream textile industry is in a slack season, with poor orders and rising finished - product inventory [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract adjusts at a high level, with long - position liquidation. The price falls below the 5 - day moving average but is supported by the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 14090 and resistance at 14205 [7]. Corn - **Price Movement**: The corn 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly. The continuous auction of imported corn by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation has a shrinking transaction rate. Wheat substitution and the approaching spring - corn harvest pressure the price, while imports in June are 156,000 tons, an 82.7% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract fluctuates around short - term moving averages. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2308 and resistance at 2330 [9]. Sugar - **Price Movement**: The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract rises strongly, hitting a new high. The high sales rate during the summer consumption peak and low inventory support the price, but the expected increase in imported sugar is a resistance factor [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract stands above the moving - average system, with an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 5825 and resistance at 5900 [11]. Eggs - **Price Movement**: The egg 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly after large swings. The supply side has high pressure from newly - laid eggs, but hot weather reduces laying rates and inventory is low at all levels. The demand peak is delayed, and the high futures premium limits the rebound space [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract enters a narrow - fluctuation phase after large - scale oscillations, with both long and short positions reducing. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3610 and resistance at 3652 [14]. Soybean Oil - **Price Movement**: The soybean oil 2509 contract oscillates upward, entering an uptrend. The strong performance of palm oil drives soybean oil up, but the high arrival of imported soybeans and rising inventory may limit the increase [15][17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract rebounds above the moving - average system, showing a strengthening trend. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8068 and resistance at 8198 [17]. Jujubes - **Price Movement**: The jujube 2601 contract first declines and then rises, showing an oscillating trend. New - jujube production is estimated to be 560,000 - 620,000 tons, a 20 - 25% year - on - year decrease, but the reduction is less than expected. The consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is higher than last year [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract oscillates downward with narrow fluctuations. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 10360 and resistance at 10680 [18]. Apples - **Price Movement**: The apple 2510 contract rises steadily. The inventory is at a five - year low, with 704,500 tons as of July 23, a decrease of 101,500 tons from the previous period. The high price of early - maturing apples boosts market confidence, but weather risks exist during the fruit - expansion period [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract rises steadily above the moving - average system, hitting a new high, with an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 7932 and resistance at 8014 [20].

Group 1: Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The current breeding profit has returned to a low level, and the market is cautious about expanding production capacity. There is no basis for a significant decline in the market. The market expects a potential market wave in July and August due to the impact of piglet diarrhea at the beginning of the year, but the actual subsequent slaughter is expected to continue to recover, and the live inventory continues to be postponed. The pressure on the upper side of the 09 contract is accumulating. Pay attention to the pressure above 14,500 yuan/ton and operate with a short - bias when the price is high [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract price increased by 8.43% to 450 yuan/ton, the "pig 2511" contract rose 0.11% to 13,620 yuan/ton, and the "pig 2509" contract fell 0.25% to 14,250 yuan/ton. The 9 - 11 spread decreased by 7.35%. The main contract positions decreased by 2.17%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in Henan remained unchanged, while those in Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Hunan, and Hebei decreased slightly. The sample point slaughter volume increased by 0.84%, the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged, the weekly piglet price decreased by 3.20%, the weekly sow price remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.30%, the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 11.82%, and the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit increased by 220.34%. The monthly fertile sow inventory increased by 0.10% [2]. Group 2: Oil and Fat Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures have pulled back from high levels, with limited rebound space and the risk of further decline after the rebound. Domestic palm oil still has the pressure to weaken and adjust, and it is expected to seek support at 8,500 yuan/ton. For soybean oil, the market's digestion of the US sanctions on Russia has put pressure on crude oil, dragging down the vegetable oil market. CBOT soybean oil has maintained a narrow - range shock adjustment. Domestic soybean imports are expected to be high in July - August, but the market's attention has shifted to the limited imports in the fourth quarter, and there will be positive factors in August [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: For soybean oil, the current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.36%, the futures price of Y2509 increased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 5.08%. For palm oil, the current price in Guangdong decreased by 0.34%, the futures price of P2509 decreased by 0.46%, and the basis changed significantly. For rapeseed oil, the current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.31%, the futures price of Ol209 increased by 0.21%, and the basis increased by 43.10%. There were also changes in cross - period spreads and price differences between different oils [4]. Group 3: Corn Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View On July 15, the transaction volume of imported corn auctions reached a new low. With the depletion of remaining grain, traders are more likely to support prices, and the overall price is stable with partial rebounds. The downstream deep - processing industry is in the seasonal maintenance period, and the demand from the breeding end is mainly for rigid replenishment. In the medium term, the tight supply of corn and the increase in breeding consumption will support the corn price. In the short term, the weak market sentiment is gradually being released, and the corn price is stabilizing, with the futures market remaining volatile. Attention should be paid to the scale and transaction of subsequent auctions [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: The price of the "corn 2509" contract decreased by 0.30%, the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port remained unchanged, the basis increased by 14.58%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 7.81%, and the import profit decreased by 2.83%. For corn starch, the price of the "corn starch 2509" contract decreased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 11.32%. The positions of both increased, while the number of warehouse receipts decreased [5]. Group 4: Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on the price of raw sugar, which is expected to maintain a bottom - shock pattern. The domestic market demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. However, the entry of processed sugar into the market has put pressure on prices. Considering the increase in future imports, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease. It is recommended to maintain a short - bias strategy after the price rebounds, with the pressure reference range of 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Indicators**: The price of the "sugar 2601" contract decreased by 0.07%, the "sugar 2509" contract decreased by 0.26%, and the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 1.53%. The 1 - 9 spread increased by 6.18%. The main contract positions decreased by 3.20%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.12%, and the effective forecast decreased by 100% [8]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The spot price in Nanning remained unchanged, while that in Kunming increased by 0.43%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) decreased, and the price difference with Nanning also decreased [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03%, the cumulative sales increased by 23.07%, the cumulative national sales rate increased by 9.70%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [8]. Group 5: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The differentiation between the upstream and downstream of the cotton industry has intensified, with the downstream profits, cash flow deteriorating, and the开机 rate decreasing while the finished - product inventory increasing. However, the tight commercial inventory of cotton in the 2024/25 season before the new cotton is listed is difficult to resolve, which still strongly supports the cotton price. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate in a moderately strong range, while it will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market Prices**: The price of the "cotton 2509" contract decreased by 0.18%, the "cotton 2601" contract increased by 0.04%, and the ICE US cotton main contract increased by 0.68%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 50%. The main contract positions decreased by 1.98%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.93%, and the effective forecast increased by 3.24% [9]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The Xinjiang arrival price, CC Index, and FC Index all increased to varying degrees. Some price differences also changed [9]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 9.5%, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.9%, the import volume decreased by 33.3%, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 8.9%. The yarn inventory days increased by 14.1%, and the grey - cloth inventory days increased by 3.2%. The cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, and the clothing and textile retail sales increased by 4.0% [9]. Group 6: Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The excellent rate of US soybeans exceeds market expectations, and the market is worried about the impact of tariffs. The futures market remains at the bottom. The Brazilian soybean premium is continuously rising, and the Brazilian soybeans are relatively strong. Currently, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories continue to rise, the开机 rate remains high, and the basis fluctuates at a low level. Although the subsequent supply is expected to maintain a high arrival volume, the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, and the basis decline space is limited. The soybean meal main contract has returned above the 20 - day moving average, and with the stabilization of US soybeans and the increase in premiums, the domestic futures market may have further upward space. It is recommended to operate with a cautious long - bias [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: For soybean meal, the spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price of M2509 decreased by 0.47%, and the basis increased by 8.64%. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.39%, the futures price of RM2509 decreased by 0.15%, and the basis increased by 12.84%. For soybeans, the spot price in Harbin remained unchanged, the futures price of the soybean - one main contract increased by 0.44%, and the basis decreased by 10.53%. The basis of the soybean - two main contract increased by 39.13% [11]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The soybean meal cross - period spread decreased by 27.59%, the rapeseed meal cross - period spread decreased by 3.38%, the oil - meal ratio increased slightly, and the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [6] - **Pigs**: Oscillating [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [13] - **Sugar**: Oscillating (short - term), Oscillating weakly (long - term) [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating weakly [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market is generally in a state of oscillation. Each variety is affected by different factors, including supply, demand, weather, and policy. For example, the oils and fats market may continue to oscillate weakly due to factors such as good soybean growth and the palm oil production season, while protein meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term with cost support [5][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The U.S. soybean planting area is lower than expected, but the current growth is good. - **Industry Information**: As of June 29, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%. The 2025 U.S. soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than the expected 83.655 million acres. As of June 1, 2025, the U.S. old - crop soybean inventory was 1.01 billion bushels, up 4% year - on - year [5]. - **Logic**: The U.S. soybean planting area being slightly lower than expected and the quarterly inventory being higher than expected offset each other. The macro - environment has uncertainties, and the industrial side shows that U.S. soybean growth is good, and the palm oil production pressure may decrease marginally in June. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the oils and fats may continue to oscillate weakly, but factors such as trade uncertainties and the expected increase in overseas biodiesel consumption of oils may support prices [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The strong Brazilian soybean premium provides cost support for the Dalian soybean meal futures. - **Industry Information**: On July 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes showed different changes. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 41.63 yuan/ton, up 3.71% week - on - week [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the U.S. soybean area is in line with expectations, but the quarterly inventory is increased. Brazil's soybean exports are strong, and China mainly purchases Brazilian soybeans. Domestically, soybean arrivals increase, oil mills' inventory accumulates, and downstream replenishment is insufficient, but cost support exists in the long - run [6]. - **Outlook**: The U.S. soybean is expected to oscillate in a range. Domestic soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price points on dips [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The imported corn auction was sold at a premium, and the spot price remains firm. - **Industry Information**: The Jinzhou Port FOB price was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the domestic corn average price was 2438 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [7]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is mainly rising. The trade volume is reluctant to sell, and the demand is squeezed by wheat. The imported corn auction has limited volume and was sold at a premium. New - crop corn growth is affected by weather [8]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the supply - demand gap expectation, the price may rise, but there may be callbacks due to potential negative impacts of policy - grain auctions [8]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: Farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the impact of subsequent rainfall needs attention. - **Industry Information**: On July 1, 2025, the Henan live pig (foreign ternary) price was 15.15 yuan/kg, up 1% month - on - month, and the live pig futures closing price was 13,865 yuan/ton, down 0.04% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the average slaughter weight is decreasing, but farmers still have the intention to hold back. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets is increasing, and in the long - term, the production capacity is still high. The demand is weak, and the inventory is partially transferred [9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate. Although the average slaughter weight is decreasing, farmers' intention to hold back still exists, and it is currently the off - season for consumption [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The rubber price rose in the afternoon following the overall commodity trend. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and Thailand's raw material market showed different changes. Vietnam's natural rubber exports in the first five months of 2025 decreased by 18% year - on - year [10][11]. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market rose, and the rubber price followed. The raw material price is firm, providing bottom - support. The supply is expected to increase, but the demand is expected to decrease [11]. - **Outlook**: Before new fundamental guidance emerges, it may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [11]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price followed the overall commodity trend, first falling and then rising. - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different changes [12]. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is relatively warm, and the futures price is stable and oscillating. The fundamental trading is not significant, and it mainly follows the trend of natural rubber and the overall commodity market. The overall operating level has declined, and the inventory has slightly increased [12]. - **Outlook**: The external situation may be temporarily controllable, and the correction may not be over. Attention should be paid to the previous low support [12]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures has slowed down due to the upward revision of the U.S. cotton planting area. - **Industry Information**: As of July 1, 2025, the number of registered warrants in the 24/25 season was 10,211, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2][13]. - **Logic**: In the new - crop season, the production of China and other major cotton - producing countries is expected to increase. The U.S. cotton planting area is revised upward. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing support [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate between 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [14]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Due to the lack of positive factors, the sugar price continues to lack upward momentum. - **Industry Information**: As of July 1, 2025, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton [15]. - **Logic**: Domestically, the 24/25 sugar - making season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated imported sugar arrivals. Internationally, the new - crop production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase [15]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected supply surplus. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The fundamentals remain weak, and the pulp futures maintain a weak operation. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong showed different changes [16]. - **Logic**: The pulp import volume remains high, the price is in a downward trend, the demand is in the off - season, and the domestic inventory is high. The pulp price is under pressure to fall, but it is risky to short at the current low level [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate due to weak supply - demand and potential positive impacts from changes in delivery rules [16]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The market has returned to fundamental - driven, and the far - month contracts oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The inventory has decreased due to reduced arrivals, but it is the consumption off - season. The short - term fundamentals are in a weak balance, and the far - month contracts are expected to be weak due to the weak fundamentals [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The far - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly [17]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report also lists the sections for data monitoring of various varieties such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [20][39][52]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards including "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weak", with corresponding explanations of expected price changes and the time period being the next 2 - 12 weeks [169].

Report Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products sector shows mixed performance. Soybean meal rebounds from a low level, while oils fluctuate. Hog prices decline, sugar continues to rise, and other products also present different trends influenced by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and upcoming reports [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - The 2509 contract rebounds from a low level as short - covering occurs before the USDA report. However, with abundant domestic imported soybeans, high oil - mill operation rates, and increasing supply and inventory, the futures price is still under pressure. Technically, it remains weak, and a light - short - position strategy is recommended with support at 2942 and resistance at 2974 [2]. Soybean Oil - The 2509 contract shows a volatile trend of first decline then rise, waiting for the US soybean planting report. Domestic soybean imports and oil - mill压榨量 are high, leading to relatively loose supply and rising inventory, pressuring the futures price. Technically, it turns weak, and a light - short - position strategy is suggested with support at 7920 and resistance at 8012 [3]. Palm Oil - The 2509 contract first declines then rises, narrowing the decline. Crude oil decline, increased Malaysian palm oil production, and slow exports, along with falling domestic import costs and inventory accumulation, pressure the price. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short - position strategy is recommended with support at 8256 and resistance at 8380 [6]. Cotton - The 2509 contract rises then falls as long - profit - taking occurs. Xinjiang's de - stocking and low imports support the price, but the textile off - season, few new orders, and reduced spinning - mill开机率 limit the upside. Technically, it remains strong, and a light - long - position strategy on dips is advised with support at 13695 and resistance at 13920 [7][9]. Sugar - The 2509 contract continues to rise in a volatile manner, boosted by the rebound of ICE raw sugar due to possible lower Brazilian production in June and the domestic consumption peak season. With low inventory and slow imports, the price is supported. Technically, it is strong, and a long - position strategy on dips is continued with support at 5780 [10]. Hog - The 2509 contract drops significantly from a high level. High inventory and reduced demand due to rising temperatures, increased substitute consumption, and school holidays pressure the price. Technically, it turns weak, and long - positions should be closed with support at 13750 and resistance at 13970 [12]. Egg - The 2508 contract opens low and closes high, showing a volatile rebound. Market speculation on lower summer egg - laying rates may reduce supply pressure, but the high egg - laying hen inventory and cautious trading limit the upside. Technically, short - positions should be closed with support at 3500 and resistance at 3574 [14]. Corn - The 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly. Tight supply from low grassroots grain and wheat support are offset by import auction expectations and wheat substitution, resulting in a narrow - range market. A short - term trading strategy is recommended with support at 2370 and resistance at 2386 [17]. Red Date - The 2509 contract falls from a high level. High - temperature weather in Xinjiang may reduce production, but the traditional off - season and increasing inventory lead to a high - level adjustment. Technically, there is callback pressure, and long - positions should be reduced with support at 9500 and resistance at 9700 [18][20]. Apple - The 2510 contract shows a volatile negative trend. The expected production reduction did not materialize, but low inventory supports the price while substitute fruits impact consumption. A short - term trading strategy is recommended with support at 7646 and resistance at 7780 [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Soybean (Bean 1), Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn [1] - **Sell (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Pigs, Eggs [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. Short - term market trends are affected by factors such as weather, planting area reports, and policy changes, while long - term trends are influenced by supply - demand relationships and bio - diesel development [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean (Bean 1) - Domestic soybeans are in a downward trend. U.S. soybeans are weak due to favorable short - term weather and market waiting for the planting area report. There is little residual grain at the grass - roots level of domestic soybeans, and the policy side is conducting auctions. Short - term focus is on the U.S. soybean area report and weather [2] 3.2 Soybean & Soybean Meal - Soybean meal futures fell 2.43% today. Before the U.S. Department of Agriculture's planting area report on July 1, institutions predict an average soybean planting area of 83.655 million acres. U.S. weather is favorable for soybean growth. Domestic spot prices are falling, and oil mill soybean meal inventories are increasing. The soybean meal market is currently in a volatile state [3] 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - U.S. soybeans are weak. Brazil will raise the biodiesel blending ratio to 15% from August 1. The decline of soybean and palm oil has slowed. In the long - term, a long - position strategy for vegetable oils is recommended, waiting for the U.S. soybean planting area report [4] 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal futures continue to be weak. The weather in North American oilseed areas is good. The inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil in oil mills is low, but the East China inventory is sufficient. A short - position strategy for rapeseed products is recommended [6] 3.5 Corn - Dalian corn futures are fluctuating weakly. There are policies on wheat prices, and the expected state reserve auction suppresses the increase of corn prices. The inventory situation varies between north and south ports. Corn futures are expected to be volatile [7] 3.6 Live Pigs - The main contract of live pig futures rebounds slightly, and the far - month contract is relatively weak. Spot prices are rising slightly. In the medium - term, the pressure of pig supply is large, and the long - term focus is on policy and production capacity inflection points [8] 3.7 Eggs - The main contract of egg futures shows a doji pattern. Spot prices are stable in some areas and slightly lower in others. Egg production capacity is still being released, and a short - position strategy for egg futures is recommended [9]

Group 1: Soybean and Oilseed Market - CBOT soybeans showed a stable yet weak performance, with NOPA's soybean crush hitting a historical high for the same period but below expectations, while rainfall in production areas may slow down planting progress [1] - Domestic soybean meal saw an increase in positions and strong performance, driven by accelerated purchases from domestic oil mills, with September shipments at about 20% and uncertainty in long-term supply supporting futures prices [1] - BMD palm oil fell after three consecutive days of gains due to profit-taking and a decline in US soybean oil, while international crude oil remained strong amid geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Pork and Egg Market - September live hog futures closed with a slight gain, with prices in Henan province rising to 14.27 yuan/kg, up 0.26 yuan/kg from the previous week, indicating a stable support for futures prices [1] - The main contract for egg futures experienced a decline, with a 1.03% drop to 3545 yuan/500kg, despite a rise in national egg prices, as supply remains ample and consumption is weak [1] Group 3: Corn Market - Corn futures showed a reduction in positions with a near-weak and far-strong trend, as the main funds shifted from July to September contracts, which are fluctuating around the 2400 yuan mark [1] - The spot market saw support from rising wheat prices, with strong prices in Northeast China and stability in North China, while demand for corn remains robust as enterprises increase forward orders [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. Oils are volatile, with palm oil and soybean oil facing downward pressure due to supply - related factors, while corn has stabilized and rebounded. Sugar continues to be weak, and various other agricultural products such as livestock, cotton, eggs, etc. also have their own supply - demand and price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Market situation: Malaysian palm oil exports are strong, with India's May imports surging 87% to 600,000 tons, but the producing area is in the production - increasing cycle, and the market expects May's Malaysian palm oil inventory to reach 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% month - on - month increase. In the domestic market, inventory increased to 364,000 tons as of May 30, a 7.47% month - on - month increase, and demand is weak [2]. - Strategy: Light - position short - term short, with support at 8048 and resistance at 8192 for the 2509 contract [2]. (2) Soybean Meal - Market situation: Domestic imported soybeans arrive in large quantities, oil mill operating rates increase, and soybean meal supply rises. As of the end of May, inventory increased to 300,000 tons, but it is still at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the price shows resilience [3]. - Strategy: Close short positions, conduct short - term trading, with support at 2942 and resistance at 2981 for the 2509 contract [3]. (3) Soybean Oil - Market situation: A large number of imported soybeans arrive in the country, oil mill crushing volume is high, and soybean oil inventory increases significantly, reaching 754,900 tons as of May 30, a 5.77% month - on - month increase. Post - Dragon Boat Festival demand is insufficient, and the price faces downward pressure [6]. - Strategy: Light - position short at high prices, with support at 7612 and resistance at 7682 for the 2509 contract [6]. (4) Sugar - Market situation: Northern hemisphere sugar producers like India and Thailand have good production prospects, and Brazil's dry weather is favorable for sugarcane crushing. International raw sugar prices are under pressure. In the domestic market, expected imports will increase due to open import profit windows and license issuance, and the price is under pressure [7][9]. - Strategy: Light - position short at high prices, with support at 5712 and resistance at 5750 for the 2509 contract [9]. (5) Corn - Market situation: New wheat is on the market, and the substitution supply increases, but the remaining grain in the producing areas is exhausted, supply is tight, and port inventory continues to decline, supporting the price [11]. - Strategy: Light - position long, with support at 2320 and resistance at 2340 for the 2507 contract [11]. (6) Live Pigs - Market situation: The pig inventory of breeding farms is at a high level, the daily slaughter pressure increases, and the downstream demand is weak, in the seasonal off - season, resulting in downward pressure on the price [12]. - Strategy: Light - position short, with support at 13380 and resistance at 13545 for the 2509 contract [12]. (7) Cotton - Market situation: The textile industry is in the consumption off - season, orders are scarce, inventory removal is slow, and demand for cotton raw materials is weak [15]. - Strategy: Light - position short - term short, with support at 13200 and resistance at 13305 for the 2509 contract [15]. (8) Eggs - Market situation: The laying - hen inventory is high, and the production capacity reduction is slow. As of the end of May, the inventory is about 1.334 billion. After the festival, consumption declines, and the storage difficulty increases during the plum - rain and high - temperature season, leading to downward pressure on the price [16][18]. - Strategy: Light - position short, with support at 2857 and resistance at 2901 for the 2507 contract [18]. (9) Apples - Market situation: The remaining apple inventory in the producing areas is low, and the new - season apple bagging work is advancing, with some areas having a production - reduction expectation, supporting the price [19]. - Strategy: Light - position long at low prices, with support at 7680 and resistance at 7760 for the 2510 contract [22]. (10) Peanuts - Market situation: After the previous price increase, the trading atmosphere is dull, the upper - hand volume at the grass - roots level is limited, and the oil mill purchases are coming to an end. The price is in a volatile consolidation [23]. - Strategy: Short - term trading, if the 10 - day moving average is broken again, light - position short, with support at 8340 and resistance at 8426 for the 2510 contract [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with most oil - related products falling, sugar being weak, while corn is stabilizing and rising. The prices of various products are affected by factors such as international market trends, domestic supply and demand, and seasonal characteristics [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2509 fell sharply, dragged down by the decline of soybean oil. The Malaysian production area is in the production - increasing season, and the domestic spot trading is cold. The strategy is to close long positions and wait for an opportunity to short - sell, with support at 8000 and resistance at 8100 [2]. (2) Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main contract 2509 continued to decline and expanded its decline, driven by the continuous fall of US soybean oil futures. Domestic supply pressure increased due to large - scale imports of soybeans and high - level oil - mill压榨. The strategy is to maintain a light short position, with support at 7600 and resistance at 7700 [3]. (3) Sugar - The sugar main contract 2509 continued to fall and was weakly running. Domestic production increased and there were concerns about increased imports. The strategy is to maintain a light short position, with support at 5750 and resistance at 5800 [5]. (4) Peanut - The peanut main contract 2510 reversed and fell sharply after a sharp rise, dragged down by the overall decline of the oil sector. Although there are some factors supporting the price, the demand is limited. The strategy is to reduce long positions, with support at 8368 and resistance at 8528 [8]. (5) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2509 oscillated at a high level. The supply increased due to the arrival of imported soybeans and the increase in oil - mill operation rate. The strategy is to close long positions, with support at 2940 and resistance at 2984 [10]. (6) Corn - The corn main contract 2507 stabilized and rose. The reduction of remaining grain in the production area and the decline of port inventory supported the price. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 2330 and resistance at 2342 [11][13]. (7) Live Pig - The live pig main contract 2509 rebounded first and then declined, with limited rebound. The market is back to the influence of fundamental supply - demand. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 13380 and resistance at 13750 [14][16]. (8) Cotton - The cotton main contract 2509 oscillated downward. The textile industry is in a seasonal demand trough, and the demand for cotton is weak. The strategy is to wait patiently for a breakthrough and conduct short - term trading, with support at 13235 and resistance at 13370 [17]. (9) Egg - The egg main contract 2507 rebounded at a low level, but the downward trend has not reversed. The supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. The strategy is for short - sellers to take profits, with support at 2869 and resistance at 2980 [19]. (10) Apple - The apple main contract 2510 continued to rebound. The low inventory and the expected reduction in the new season supported the price. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 7645 and resistance at 7710 [21].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 2025年5月14日 | | | 王浅辉 | Z0019938 | | | 员拥 | | | | | | 5月13日 | | | 5月12日 | 张庆 | 涨跌幅 | | 8320 | 现价 江苏一级 | | 8270 | 50 | 0.60% | | Y2509 | 期价 | 7952 | 7970 | -18 | -0.23% | | Y2509 | 墓差 | 368 | 300 | ୧୫ | 22.67% | | 09+400 | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 | | 09+390 | 10 | - | | 6370 | 仓車 | | 6370 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | 5月13日 | | | 5月12日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 8670 | 现价 广东24度 | | 8600 | 70 | 0.81% | | P2509 | 期价 | 8324 | 8450 | -126 | - ...