Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government will eliminate the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products and lithium battery products starting from April 1, 2026, with a transitional reduction in the rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% until the end of 2026, followed by a complete cancellation in 2027 [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The policy aims to reduce trade friction, promote industrial upgrading, and prevent "involution and externalization" of competitive advantages in the lithium battery sector [2][8]. - The expected impact on export VAT rebates is approximately $22 billion in 2026 and $66 billion in 2027, based on projected export growth rates [9]. - The transition period allows companies to adjust prices to mitigate the impact, potentially leading to a surge in exports before the policy takes full effect [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The lithium battery export market is experiencing a shift from a traditional off-peak season to a peak season due to the new policy, which is expected to drive demand [3]. - A "scramble for goods" is occurring throughout the lithium battery supply chain, with companies preparing to increase production and stock up before the policy changes [4]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures has surged significantly, with a year-to-date increase of 37.25% as of mid-January 2026, indicating strong market demand [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Strategy - The policy is designed to guide companies away from price competition and towards technological upgrades and brand building, ensuring sustainable development of the industry [7][8]. - Major Chinese battery manufacturers are expanding their production capacity overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia and Europe, which will enhance their global competitiveness and profitability [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate futures has experienced a rapid increase, driven by multiple factors including policy adjustments, strong downstream demand, and supply disruptions, leading to significant impacts on the entire lithium battery supply chain [1][14]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures prices rose from 130,000 yuan/ton on January 5, 2026, to a peak of 174,000 yuan/ton on January 13, 2026, marking a 33.8% increase within just eight trading days [1][3]. - From a low of 60,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025, prices have surged over 180% [3]. Policy Impact - The adjustment of the export tax rebate for battery products, effective April 1, 2026, from 9% to 6%, and its complete cancellation by January 1, 2027, has prompted downstream battery manufacturers to accelerate their procurement of lithium carbonate [6][14]. - This policy change is expected to create a concentrated demand surge before the tax adjustment, particularly benefiting the materials used in ternary batteries and energy storage [6]. Demand Growth - In 2025, China's retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 12.809 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with December exports soaring by 255% [8]. - Global sales of new energy vehicles are projected to reach 24.75 million units in 2026, continuing to drive demand for lithium battery materials [8]. - The new energy storage sector saw an addition of 34 GW/87 GWh in installed capacity in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a growth of over 65% [8]. Supply Disruptions - The cancellation of mining rights for 27 lithium mines in Yichun, Jiangxi, at the end of 2025 has raised concerns about short-term supply constraints, despite limited actual production capacity [9]. - Domestic lithium salt production decreased by 3.2% month-on-month in December 2025, coupled with maintenance at some enterprises, limiting supply growth [9]. Industry Chain Impact - The rise in lithium carbonate prices is expected to increase cost pressures on battery manufacturers, potentially leading to higher end-product prices for new energy vehicles [11]. - Midstream companies may enhance R&D investments to improve production efficiency and mitigate costs, while some smaller firms may face profit compression and exit the market [11]. - The overall market remains resilient, with consumer demand for new energy vehicles likely to continue growing despite price pressures [11]. Future Outlook - In the short term (Q1 2026), lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain high due to pre-export demand and post-holiday replenishment needs, with some forecasts suggesting prices could reach 180,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton [13]. - However, after the initial demand surge, prices may face downward pressure as inventory levels rise and production resumes [13]. - Long-term, the supply-demand gap is anticipated to widen due to slow new capacity releases, supporting a systemic increase in lithium prices [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market is currently in a high-inventory and high-supply pattern, with short-term prices remaining weak due to low-cost warehouse receipts and pre-holiday inventory reduction pressure. However, beware of overshoot rebounds. Focus on tracking the production reduction of caustic soda manufacturers as well as the operating conditions of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - From January 2nd to 8th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.8%, a week-on-week increase of 0.4% [1] - From January 3rd to 9th, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.07% week-on-week to 85.74%. From January 5th to 8th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 3.01% week-on-week to 88.43%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.72% week-on-week to 60.09% [1] - As of January 8th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the whole country was 495,200 tons (wet tons), a week-on-week increase of 1.96% and a year-on-year increase of 76.03% [1] - From January 2nd to 8th, the weekly average gross profit of Shandong chlor-alkali enterprises was 183 yuan/ton [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The Ministry of Finance announced an adjustment to the export tax rebate policy for products such as photovoltaic products. As of April 1st, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaic products will be cancelled, including various lithium compounds, methanol, polyvinyl chloride products, and some silicon products [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The caustic soda market is in a high-inventory and high-supply pattern. Currently, the warehouse receipt cost is lower than the spot price. The short-term decline is due to low-cost warehouse receipts and pre-holiday inventory reduction pressure. The winter is the off-season for chlor-alkali enterprise maintenance, while spring (March - May) and autumn (September - October) are the traditional concentrated maintenance seasons for chlor-alkali enterprises. The futures price has reached a new low [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, which is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the industry [1][3]. Industry Impact - The policy adjustment is seen as a key measure to transform the competitive dynamics within the industry. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association noted that some companies have been using export tax rebates to enhance their bargaining power in overseas markets, effectively subsidizing foreign markets and increasing the risk of trade friction [3]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates is anticipated to help restore rational pricing in overseas markets [3]. Market Response - The impact of the policy has already been observed in the first quarter, with a company executive indicating that overseas buyers are placing orders in advance to avoid increased costs after April, leading to a "mini peak season" during a traditionally slow demand period [3]. - Companies are ramping up production and working overtime to meet the surge in overseas orders before the April 1 deadline [3]. Battery Products Adjustment - The export tax rebate policy for battery products will also undergo a phased adjustment, with the rebate rate decreasing from 9% to 6% from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and a complete cancellation of the rebate starting January 1, 2027 [3].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene has significant supply - demand pressure, and although it rebounds due to overall sentiment, the upside space is limited. Consider hedging opportunities if it continues to rise [4]. - Styrene is short - term strong due to the short - term rebound of the overall commodity market, export disruptions, and unexpected de - stocking. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average on the daily K - line and look for low - buying opportunities [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - From January 2nd to 8th, the total output of Chinese styrene factories was 355,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%, and the factory capacity utilization rate was 70.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69% [1]. - From January 2nd to 8th, the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS, the downstream products of styrene, increased by 0.31% month - on - month to 259,700 tons [1]. - As of January 8th, the styrene factory inventory was 162,300 tons, a 5.48% decrease from the previous week; as of January 12th, the styrene inventory at East China ports was 100,600 tons, a 23.96% decrease from the previous week [1]. - As of January 12th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was 250.79 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 660.46 yuan/ton [1]. - According to past industry rules, January - March is the off - season for styrene demand, with a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation. This year, due to the late Spring Festival, the time for seasonal production reduction is also late [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The Ministry of Finance announced an adjustment to the export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaic. Starting from April 1st, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for products such as photovoltaic will be cancelled, including multiple chemical and electronic products [2]. Futures and Spot Market Analysis - No specific analysis content is provided in the given report.

Group 1 - Lithium stocks have risen again, with Tianqi Lithium (002466) up 3.81% to HKD 57.15 and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) up 3.72% to HKD 61.35 [2] - On January 13, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange broke through RMB 170,000 per ton, reaching a new high since October 2023 [2] - The latest price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) rose by RMB 12,080 to RMB 152,100 per ton on January 12, marking a new high in over two years and increasing for seven consecutive days [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and the cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [2] - According to Guosen Securities, there may be a short-term surge in export demand from overseas clients due to a policy buffer period, leading to a significant off-peak season in the industry chain [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the adjustment of export tax rebate policies for photovoltaic and related products, effective April 1, 2026, which includes the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products and a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products [1][4]. Summary by Categories Export Tax Rebate Policy Changes - From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be canceled [1][5]. - The export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1, 2026, until December 31, 2026, and will be completely canceled starting January 1, 2027 [4][5]. Products Affected - The announcement includes 18 pesticide-related products, such as glyphosate, acetochlor, and flufenacet, which will also be affected by the changes in export tax rebate policies [1][3]. - A detailed list of products subject to the changes is provided in the attachments, specifying the product codes and names along with their respective tax rates [5][6]. Consumption Tax Policy - The export consumption tax policy for the affected products will remain unchanged, continuing to apply the existing consumption tax rebate (exemption) policies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced an adjustment to the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products, effective from April 1, 2026, which will cancel the VAT export rebate for 249 products, including those in the photovoltaic, chemical, and building materials sectors [1]. Group 1: Policy Changes - From April 1, 2026, the VAT export rebate for 249 products will be canceled, affecting over 80 chemical products including methanol, lithium hexafluorophosphate, 1,2-ethanediol, BDO, and PVC [1]. - The export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1, 2026, until December 31, 2026, and will be completely canceled starting January 1, 2027 [4]. Group 2: Affected Products - The list of affected chemical products includes lithium hexafluorophosphate (code 28269020), methanol (code 29051100), and 1,2-ethanediol (code 29053100) among others [2]. - The announcement specifies various chemical products that will be impacted by the policy change, indicating a broad range of sectors including agriculture and manufacturing [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement to cancel the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, will increase export costs for solar companies, prompting many to expedite shipments before the deadline [1]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The cancellation of the 9% export VAT rebate is expected to raise export costs for photovoltaic companies, leading to increased urgency in shipping products before the policy takes effect [1]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association noted that since 2024, the export prices of photovoltaic products have been declining, indicating a "volume increase, price decrease" trend [2]. - The adjustment in export VAT is seen as a long-term measure to stabilize export prices and reduce trade friction, although it is not the sole solution to the industry's challenges [2]. Group 2: Shipping and Logistics - A surge in shipping demand is anticipated as companies rush to export before the policy change, which may help alleviate seasonal declines in shipping rates [2]. - As of January 9, the Shanghai export container freight index was at 1647.39 points, down 0.5% from the previous period, with slight fluctuations in shipping rates across various routes [2]. - Despite the urgency from manufacturers, logistics companies indicate that the impact of the VAT policy change has not yet fully reached the logistics sector, and some companies have already developed contingency plans [2]. Group 3: Future Projections - Following the VAT policy adjustment, a significant drop in photovoltaic component export volumes is expected, with potential shipping volumes post-Chinese New Year estimated between 9,300 to 12,300 FEU per month [3][4]. - The main contract for the European shipping index (EC2604) experienced a notable increase, suggesting that the upcoming policy change may provide temporary support for shipping rates [3][4]. - Analysts predict that while there may be short-term benefits from increased shipping activity, the overall export volume of photovoltaic components will likely decline significantly in the future, putting pressure on long-term shipping rates [4].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the lithium battery industry and the new energy vehicle market in China, highlighting trends, policy changes, and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points on Lithium Battery Industry - **Strong Production Data**: Despite the off-season, production data remains robust, indicating strong demand bolstered by export tax rebate policies, particularly benefiting separator and lithium-containing material investments [1][3]. - **Anti-Dumping Meeting Insights**: The recent anti-dumping meeting emphasized capacity, pricing, intellectual property, and quality supervision. It aims to strengthen market price enforcement and cost monitoring, ensuring healthy industry development [4]. - **Export Tax Policy Changes**: Starting April 1, 2026, certain lithium battery materials will see export tax rebates canceled, while lithium batteries will have a one-year buffer period. This policy is expected to enhance the bargaining power and technical strength of Chinese companies [5]. - **Material Price Increases**: Recent price hikes for ternary cathodes, lithium iron phosphate, and electrolytes have been confirmed, with increases of approximately 1,000-2,000 yuan for large customers and even higher for smaller ones, positively impacting industry chain profits [6][12]. - **Positive Outlook for 2026**: The lithium materials sector is expected to perform well, with continuous price increases for separators and a surge in equipment orders from leading companies [7][8]. Solid-State Battery Developments - **Initial Mass Production**: The solid-state battery sector is entering its initial mass production phase in 2026, with several companies beginning vehicle testing and making significant progress in lithium sulfide and auxiliary materials [9]. New Energy Vehicle Market Insights - **2025 Performance**: In 2025, China's new energy vehicle retail sales reached 12.809 million units, a 15% year-on-year increase, while wholesale sales grew over 25% [10]. - **2026 Projections**: The market is expected to maintain strong growth in 2026, driven by policy support, trade-in programs, and increased penetration of commercial vehicles [2][10]. Additional Industry Developments - **Storage Systems Growth**: The domestic storage system bidding volume reached approximately 9.3 GWh in December 2025, reflecting a strong demand and significant year-on-year growth [13][14]. - **Sodium-Ion Battery Advancements**: CATL plans to promote sodium-ion batteries across various applications, with mass production of materials expected this year, alongside improvements in charging and swapping infrastructure [15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments within the lithium battery and new energy vehicle sectors, highlighting the anticipated growth and ongoing changes in policies and market dynamics.