Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration to cancel export VAT rebates for photovoltaic and battery products is seen as a significant measure in the "anti-involution" actions within the new energy sectors, aimed at addressing the industry's profitability issues and promoting higher value-added products [5][6][8]. Industry Overview - The new energy photovoltaic and lithium battery industries have been facing challenges due to mismatched supply and demand and intense price competition, leading to weak profitability across the sector [3]. - Since 2025, there have been ongoing calls within the lithium battery sector to resist vicious competition, control capacity growth, and enhance technological innovation [3]. Policy Changes - Starting from April 1, 2026, the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products will be canceled, and the rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% until the end of 2026, after which it will be completely eliminated [1][5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other regulatory bodies have proposed 20 measures to regulate industry competition, including tightening approvals for low-capacity projects and establishing a cost-based price monitoring mechanism [4]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the stock performance of key players in the lithium battery sector showed significant volatility, with leading companies like CATL experiencing declines, while some photovoltaic companies saw substantial gains [1]. - The cancellation of export VAT rebates is expected to lead to an increase in the cost and price of Chinese photovoltaic components in overseas markets, which may help clear out low-end production capacity [8]. Price Trends - The prices of lithium carbonate futures have surged to over 160,000 yuan per ton, compared to 60,000 yuan per ton in June 2025, indicating a significant recovery in the battery materials market [6]. - The demand for upstream materials remains strong, with companies reporting full production capacity and no immediate adjustments in order volumes from downstream clients [7]. Future Outlook - The upcoming policy changes are anticipated to drive a surge in orders for photovoltaic components before the new VAT regulations take effect, although this demand may be temporary [7]. - Long-term, the cancellation of export VAT rebates is expected to facilitate industry consolidation and price normalization, benefiting the overall market structure [8].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks in Hong Kong experienced a significant rise on January 12, with increases exceeding 4% for some companies, driven by a surge in lithium carbonate futures prices and changes in export tax policies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 12, lithium stocks such as Li Shi International (00842) rose by 4.71%, Tianqi Lithium (09696) increased by 4.08%, and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) saw a rise of 3.19% [2]. - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures hit a limit-up, increasing by 9% to 156,060 yuan per ton [1][3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and a complete cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [1][3]. - Analysts suggest that battery manufacturers may increase orders before the tax changes take effect, leading to a short-term boost in lithium carbonate demand [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - While the immediate outlook for lithium prices is positive due to increased demand from battery exports, the long-term impact of the export tax cancellation may suppress demand as profit margins decrease across the supply chain [3].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks have seen an early rise, driven by a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures and changes in export tax policies affecting battery products [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Tianqi Lithium (09696) rose by 4.46%, trading at 55 HKD [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) increased by 3.45%, trading at 58.45 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - On January 12, lithium carbonate futures main contract hit the upper limit with a 9% increase, reaching 156,060 RMB per ton [1] - Analysts suggest that battery companies may increase orders before April to "rush exports," positively impacting short-term lithium carbonate demand [1] Group 3: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and a complete cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [1] - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to reduce profits across various sectors, potentially increasing costs that may be passed on to end consumers, which could suppress long-term demand [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold price is expected to rise steadily, and it is recommended to go long; the silver market has strong speculative sentiment and large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to buy on dips due to the tight supply of copper mines and the narrowing of the domestic spot discount [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term due to the combination of positive and negative factors [1]. - Alumina is expected to show weak volatility as the market is in a state of supply surplus [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the range of 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be supported and are likely to rise rather than fall [2]. - Polysilicon is expected to have a deep decline in the market, but there is still an expectation of fundamental improvement [2]. - Tin is recommended to be bought on dips due to the tight supply and the decline of global visible inventory [2][3]. - For black and agricultural products: - Soybean meal is expected to be volatile in the short term and needs to find a bottom in the medium term [4]. - Corn futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [4]. - Oils are expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation [4]. - Sugar is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - Cotton is recommended to wait and see within the price range of 14300 - 14800 yuan/ton [5]. - Eggs and pork futures prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - Apples are recommended to wait and see [5]. - For energy and chemical products: - LLDPE is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term and it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium term [6][7]. - PVC is recommended to go long on the 05 contract and short on the 09 contract [7]. - PTA is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the processing fee of the 05 contract [7]. - Rubber is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. - Glass is recommended to buy glass and sell soda ash [7]. - PP is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term and oscillate in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to go short on highs [8]. - MEG is recommended to go short on highs [8]. - Crude oil is recommended to be used as a short - side allocation, and pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [8]. - Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term and it is recommended to go long on lows or conduct reverse spreads in the second quarter [8]. - Soda ash is recommended to be short - side allocated [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: - Market performance: On Friday, precious metal prices rebounded, with the London gold price reaching $4500 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: The non - farm payroll data was mixed. The domestic gold ETF had a small inflow of 0.3 tons, and the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2.3 tons to 1129.3 tons [1]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to go long as the gold price is rising steadily [1]. - **Silver**: - Market performance: The London silver price was close to $80 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 85.2 tons to 13675.9 tons, and the iShares silver ETF position increased by 93 tons to 16308 tons [1]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to strong speculative sentiment and large fluctuations [1]. Basic Metals - **Copper**: - Market performance: Copper prices continued to strengthen on Friday [1]. - Fundamentals: Despite the stronger US dollar index, copper prices still rose. The supply of copper mines remained tight, and the domestic spot discount narrowed [1]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 2.55% to 24330 yuan/ton on Friday [1]. - Fundamentals: The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term [1]. - **Alumina**: - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.70% to 2843 yuan/ton on Friday [1]. - Fundamentals: The operating capacity of alumina plants remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [1]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to show weak volatility [1]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: - Market performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8535 yuan/ton, down 445 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decline of 4.96% [2]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces remained the same as last week. The social inventory increased slightly, and the demand side was affected by anti - monopoly events in the polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon industries [2]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see as the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: - Market performance: LC2605 closed at 143,420 yuan/ton, down 1.9% [2]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased slightly in the short term, but the demand for lithium - battery materials decreased in January. The inventory is expected to increase in Q1 [2]. - Trading strategy: Prices are expected to be supported and are likely to rise rather than fall [2]. - **Polysilicon**: - Market performance: The main 05 contract closed at 51330 yuan/ton, down 4.31% from the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamentals: The market was affected by regulatory interviews and anti - monopoly events. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand for some downstream products decreased [2]. - Trading strategy: There is an expectation of fundamental improvement, but the market is expected to have a deep decline [2]. - **Tin**: - Market performance: Tin prices continued to strengthen on Friday [2][3]. - Fundamentals: The supply was tight, and the global visible inventory decreased by 858 tons on a weekly basis [2][3]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips [2][3]. Black and Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: - Market performance: CBOT soybeans rose slightly last Friday, and the market was quiet before the USDA report [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply was loose in the near - term, and the global supply - demand pattern was expected to be loose [4]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to be volatile in the short term and needs to find a bottom in the medium term [4]. - **Corn**: - Market performance: Corn futures prices were strong, and spot prices rose slightly [4]. - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress slowed down, and the demand from downstream feed and processing enterprises was weakening [4]. - Trading strategy: Futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [4]. - **Oils**: - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose slightly last Friday [4]. - Fundamentals: The production in Malaysia decreased seasonally in December, but the export also decreased, and the inventory was expected to rise [4]. - Trading strategy: Oils are expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation [4]. - **Sugar**: - Market performance: ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar futures both rose last week [4]. - Fundamentals: International raw sugar was under pressure from Indian production, and the domestic sugar market had slow sales progress [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - **Cotton**: - Market performance: ICE US cotton futures oscillated narrowly, and Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated downward [5]. - Fundamentals: The export of Brazilian cotton and the import of Vietnamese cotton increased in December 2025. The domestic cotton commercial inventory increased [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see within the price range of 14300 - 14800 yuan/ton [5]. - **Eggs**: - Market performance: Egg futures prices continued to rebound, and spot prices rose in some areas [5]. - Fundamentals: The laying - hen inventory decreased, and the demand increased due to the Spring Festival stocking [5]. - Trading strategy: Futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [5]. - **Pork**: - Market performance: Pork futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices rose over the weekend [5]. - Fundamentals: The supply in January is expected to be low at the beginning and high at the end, and the demand will gradually increase at the end of the month [5]. - Trading strategy: Futures prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger [5]. - **Apples**: - Market performance: The main contract rose 6.24% last week [5]. - Fundamentals: The total apple production decreased, the quality was poor, and the sales pressure was high [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Energy and Chemical Products - **LLDPE**: - Market performance: The main contract rebounded slightly on Friday [6]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and the demand was weak in the agricultural film season [6]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term and it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium term [6][7]. - **PVC**: - Market performance: V05 closed at 4777, down 1.8% [7]. - Fundamentals: Affected by the reduction of export tax rebates, the supply was high, and the demand decreased seasonally. The inventory was at a high level [7]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract and short on the 09 contract [7]. - **PTA**: - Market performance: The PX CFR China price was $892 per ton, and the PTA East - China spot price was 5035 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply of PX and PTA was at a high level, and the demand from downstream polyester factories decreased [7]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the processing fee of the 05 contract [7]. - **Rubber**: - Market performance: RU2605 oscillated weakly and closed at 16030 yuan/ton, down 0.96% [7]. - Fundamentals: The raw - material prices were supported, but the downstream demand weakened, and the inventory increased seasonally [7]. - Trading strategy: Hold short positions cautiously [7]. - **Glass**: - Market performance: fg05 closed at 1125, down 1.6% [7]. - Fundamentals: Production cuts increased, sales improved, and the inventory decreased from a high level. The demand from the real - estate market was weak [7]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy glass and sell soda ash [7]. - **PP**: - Market performance: The main contract rebounded slightly on Friday [8]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply increased slightly, and the export window opened. The downstream demand increased [8]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term and oscillate in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to go short on highs [8]. - **MEG**: - Market performance: The East - China spot price was 3697 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: The supply was at a high level, and the demand from the polyester industry decreased. The inventory is expected to increase in the medium term [8]. - Trading strategy: Go short on highs [8]. - **Crude Oil**: - Market performance: Oil prices strengthened last week due to geopolitical risks [8]. - Fundamentals: The supply was high, and the demand was in the off - season. The inventory was above the five - year average [8]. - Trading strategy: Use as a short - side allocation and pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [8]. - **Styrene**: - Market performance: The main contract rebounded slightly yesterday [8]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene was at a relatively high level, and the demand was in the off - season [8]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to oscillate in the short term and it is recommended to go long on lows or conduct reverse spreads in the second quarter [8]. - **Soda Ash**: - Market performance: sa05 closed at 1225, unchanged [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass industry decreased. The inventory was at a high level [9]. - Trading strategy: Short - side allocation is recommended [9].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The rush shipment may lead to short - term high freight rates. The EC2602 contract is likely to rise and hard to fall. For the EC2604 contract, the actual rush shipment situation needs attention, with short - term upward sentiment being strong but the actual scale of rush shipment may be limited. There may be opportunities to short EC2604 on rallies. The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for far - month contracts, but due to recent geopolitical tensions, far - month contracts may still fluctuate in the short term, and the overall strategy is to short EC2610 on rallies. [3] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures Contracts - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1729.8, up 1.40% with a basis of 66.0. The trading volume was 11327 and the open interest was 17703, a decrease of 2305. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1144.5, down 1.62% with a basis of 651.3. The trading volume was 13495 and the open interest was 29021, an increase of 1247. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1425.8, up 0.76% with a basis of 370.0. The trading volume was 447 and the open interest was 2505, an increase of 29. - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1525.7, down 0.11% with a basis of 270.1. The trading volume was 75 and the open interest was 1215, an increase of 15. - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1102.2, down 0.27% with a basis of 693.6. The trading volume was 777 and the open interest was 6662, an increase of 43. [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2502 - 2604: The spread was 585.3, with a day - on - day increase of 42.6. - EC2504 - 2606: The spread was - 281.3, with a day - on - day decrease of 29.6. [2] Spot Market - SCEIS (European Line): Updated weekly on Mondays. On January 5, 2026, it was 1795.83 points, up 3.05% from the previous period. - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly. On January 9, 2026, it was 1719 dollars/TEU, up 1.772% from the previous period. [2] European Line Spot Freight Rates - Week 2: MSK opened at 2500 dollars, Hamburg at 2600 dollars (+100). PA had some price drops, OA had price increases. The central price was 2860 dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market. - Week 3: MSK's opening price increased by 100 dollars. Other alliances had small price drops. PA was at 2600 dollars (YML's one route was 2400 dollars), and PA was in the range of 2800 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures market. - Week 4: MSK's opening price increased by 100 dollars. Most other shipping companies had not adjusted prices for the time being. [4] Group 4: News Summary - On January 11, the Israeli military was reported to plan a new round of strikes on the Gaza Strip in March 2026, aiming to expand control. - On January 11, sources said the Israeli military had no intention to attack Iran currently, but was on defensive alert. - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance adjusted the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be lowered from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate will be cancelled. [5]

Group 1 - The State Council of China is implementing a package policy to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial collaboration, focusing on enhancing consumer capacity and supporting private investment [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, which is expected to help stabilize foreign market prices and reduce trade friction risks [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation is conducting an investigation into the competitive status of the food delivery service industry, with major platforms like Meituan and JD Express expressing their willingness to cooperate [1] Group 2 - Baogang Co. announced an adjustment in the related transaction price for rare earth concentrate to 26,834 yuan per ton (excluding tax), reflecting a 2.4% increase from the previous quarter [3] - The company Tongfu Microelectronics plans to raise no more than 4.4 billion yuan through a private placement [3] - Zhongchao Technology expects a net profit increase of 149.61% to 196.88% year-on-year for 2025 [3]

可以看出，若不能提高光伏产品价格以弥补出口退税政策调整的影响，光伏厂商业绩或将受到冲击。 据了解，2025年上半年，晶科能源海外业务占比超六成。其表示，公司凭借前瞻性的全球布局战略，不 仅深耕海外传统光伏市场，更敏锐捕捉海外高增长市场，实现2025年上半年逾六成的海外出货。公司在 日本光伏组件市场多年保持出货冠军，在沙特地区的市场份额大幅高于同业，在中东、东南亚、拉美区 域的多个光伏新兴市场实现市占率领跑。2025年上半年，公司在巴基斯坦的组件出货量便已达到2024年 全年的出货水平。 2025年上半年，晶科能源应收出口退税款期末账面价值为9.13亿元。 同期，天合光能境外业务收入为147.67亿元，占营收比例约为48%。2025年上半年，天合光能应收增值 税出口退税期初账面价值为0.21亿元。关于期末账面价值，天合光能并未列明。 晶澳科技境外业务占比同样接近五成。据2025年半年报，其境外业务收入118.42亿元，占比约为 49.54%。2025年上半年，晶澳科技应收出口退税款期初账面价值为0.18亿元，期末账面价值为0.25亿 元。 同期，隆基绿能光伏产品分部中，境外业务收入为123.68亿元，占光伏产品 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since 2024, China's photovoltaic products are facing increasingly fierce competition in overseas markets, leading to a "volume increase and price decrease" trend in export prices [1] Group 1: Market Competition - The export process involves not only low-price competition but also the conversion of export tax rebates into negotiation space, which results in financial resources intended to offset domestic VAT burdens being transferred to foreign buyers [1] - This situation transforms the export tax rebate policy into a subsidy for overseas end markets, causing profit losses for domestic companies and significantly increasing the risk of international trade frictions such as anti-subsidy and anti-dumping measures [1] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - Timely reduction or cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products can help rationalize foreign market prices, lower the risk of trade frictions, and alleviate the national fiscal burden, promoting a more reasonable and efficient allocation of fiscal resources [1] - Although adjusting export tax rebates is not the only solution to the "internal competition externalization" issue, it is beneficial in the long term to curb the rapid decline in export prices and reduce the likelihood of trade frictions [1] Group 3: Recent Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a policy on November 2024, stating that from December 1, 2024, the export tax rebate rate for photovoltaic silicon wafers, batteries, and components will be reduced from 13% to 9% [1]

（文章来源：第一财经） 中国光伏行业协会发文表示，适时降低或取消光伏产品的出口退税，有助于推动国外市场价格理性回 归，降低了我国面临的贸易摩擦的风险，同时能够有效缓解国家财政负担，促进财政资源更合理、更高 效的配置。尽管调整出口退税并非从根本上解决"内卷外化"问题的唯一手段，但从长期看，有利于抑制 出口价格的过快下滑，降低贸易摩擦发生的概率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The monthly supply-demand imbalance in the polysilicon market is widening, with potential changes in market dynamics depending on policy adjustments regarding export tax rebates [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand imbalance in the polysilicon market is becoming more pronounced, although the fundamental feedback remains limited [1] - If policy measures effectively promote capacity clearance, it could reverse the current fundamental market conditions [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trading - The increase in warehouse receipts and sufficient factory inventory enhances the attractiveness of hedging, leading to a gradual increase in warehouse receipt volume, although it remains limited [1] - The market sentiment is reflected in high positions and low warehouse receipts, indicating a potential struggle between these factors [1] Group 3: Price Levels and Market Trends - The "anti-involution" theme shows no actual progress in capacity storage details, compounded by policy adjustments at the trading level [1] - The price of PS2511 faces significant pressure around 54,000 yuan/ton, with clear support near 48,000 yuan/ton, suggesting a potential range-bound trading pattern [1] - Attention is drawn to the sentiment transmission of the main "anti-involution" variety, coking coal, emphasizing the need for position risk control [1]