Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is facing significant turmoil as the government prepares a large-scale economic stimulus plan, raising concerns about fiscal health and leading to a sell-off in government bonds [1][3][6] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to 1.8%, the highest level since 2008, indicating a significant sell-off in the bond market [1][3] - The 40-year bond yield reached a historical peak of 3.695%, while the 20-year bond yield hit 2.815%, the highest since 1999 [1] - The anticipated issuance of long-term bonds to finance the stimulus plan is seen as a primary driver for the rising yields [3][6] Group 2: Economic Stimulus Plan - The Japanese government is finalizing a stimulus plan exceeding 20 trillion yen (approximately 135 billion USD) to boost the economy [1] - Reports suggest that the supplementary budget could be at least 25 trillion yen (approximately 168 billion USD), raising concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal position [3][6] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Japanese yen has depreciated against the US dollar, falling below 157 yen per dollar, reflecting market anxiety [3] - The Nikkei 225 index has experienced significant declines, erasing most gains since the new Prime Minister's election [3][4] Group 4: Broader Economic Concerns - Japan's GDP contracted by an annualized rate of 1.8% in the third quarter, indicating ongoing economic challenges [4] - Investor sentiment has been further dampened by the cancellation of the primary fiscal balance target and proposed changes to corporate governance rules [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts warn that the upcoming announcement of the fiscal stimulus plan could trigger further sell-offs in Japanese assets, highlighting the fragility of the current market [6] - Concerns are growing that Japan may face a scenario similar to the UK under Liz Truss, with simultaneous declines in the stock market, bond market, and currency [6]

智通财经APP获悉，在日元汇率跌至大约10个月以来最低位之后，日本央行货币政策委员会成员小枝淳子在谈到 有必要推动货币政策正常化时，释放出日本央行最早可能在下个月重启加息的重磅信号。这意味着在日元汇率 (兑美元)持续下跌之际，日本央行终于坐不住了——当前日元汇率位于1月以来最低且距离自去年7月以来的最弱 水平仅一步之遥，紧急派出代表放出鹰派言论稳住日元汇率。 据了解，小枝淳子周四在日本北部新潟向当地企业界领袖发表讲话时表示："鉴于当前实际利率处于显著偏低的 水平，我认为日本央行需要及时推进利率正常化进程。" 从日本央行货币政策委员会的鹰鸽成员阵营对照表来看，小枝淳子显然属于立场较强硬的鹰派阵营，不过小枝的 最新言论看似意在日元汇率持续走弱之际传递鹰派信息来维持日元稳定。然而日元兑美元却进一步走低，这表明 外汇市场交易员们或许在期待接下来日本央行官员们在日元走弱时期更为强硬的表态。 日本央行观察人士普遍预计，日本央行最迟不会晚于明年1月重启加息进程，隔夜掉期市场的最新定价显示，对 下个月采取货币政策行动的市场押注正在大幅降温。由于市场愈发相信美联储下个月不会降息，叠加市场惧怕崇 尚"安倍经济学"的高市早苗欲推出 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve plans to significantly reduce the scope of regulatory oversight on bank safety and soundness, raising market concerns [1] - Trump hinted that the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair has been determined, expressing frustration over the resistance faced in dismissing Powell [1] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that Trump may announce the nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair before Christmas [1] Group 2 - Richmond Fed President Barkin supports Powell's view that a rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion [3] - Fed Governor Barr expressed concerns that loosening regulations could lead to risk accumulation, potentially setting the stage for future crises [3] - Political uncertainty in the UK has increased, with nearly half of Labour Party voters wanting leader Starmer to step down before the next election, according to a Times poll [3] Group 3 - The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Pill, emphasized that persistent inflation above target should not be overlooked, with expectations for inflation to gradually decline [3] - The Monetary Policy Committee believes that the neutral interest rate level is between 2% and 4% [3] - Japanese government economic strategy advisors indicated that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates before March next year [3] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda and other officials held a meeting to discuss economic policy, with Ueda suggesting a gradual approach to adjusting monetary easing [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the challenges faced by Japan's Prime Minister, Kishi Sanae, in balancing aggressive fiscal policies with a loose monetary environment, which may exacerbate inflation risks due to the continuous depreciation of the yen since her election [2][4] - Kishi has expressed concerns about the current inflation being cost-push and has shown caution towards hasty interest rate hikes, indicating a respect for the independence of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) [4][6] - The upcoming cabinet meeting on November 21 is expected to finalize Kishi's first comprehensive economic measures, focusing on expanding support for food purchases and local delivery funds [4][6] Group 2 - The depreciation of the yen has been significant, with the exchange rate moving from 147 yen per dollar before Kishi's election to around 155 yen currently, raising concerns about rising import prices [2][4] - The market has reacted to the potential for delayed interest rate hikes due to fiscal expansion, leading to a sell-off of the yen and an increase in bond yields, with the 20-year government bond yield reaching 2.810%, the highest in 26 years [6] - There is a growing consensus within the government and the BOJ that if inflation accelerates further, interest rate hikes may become unavoidable, with market expectations for rate increases in December and January reaching 70% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a strong upward trend, maintaining above 155.30, with a recent peak at 155.73, marking a 9-month high, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Japanese yen remains weak, hovering near its lowest point since February, due to unclear guidance on future Bank of Japan policies and the government's preference for fiscal expansion and low interest rates, which adds structural pressure on the yen [1] - The ruling party's budget committee proposed an additional fiscal budget exceeding 25 trillion yen to support the Prime Minister's stimulus plan, raising concerns about increased government bond supply and pushing 40-year bond yields to historical highs [1] - The Prime Minister emphasized the risk of deflation and reiterated the desire for inflation driven by wage growth rather than external factors, urging the central bank to continue supporting economic stimulus efforts and expressing resistance to interest rate hikes [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Despite the accelerated rise in the USD/JPY pair, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that it has not yet entered the overbought territory, suggesting potential for further gains if employment data is strong, possibly pushing the exchange rate above 156.00 [3] - Conversely, if the employment data falls short of expectations, it could lead to a bearish reversal, with potential declines towards the 152.00 level and the 50-day moving average at 151.87 [3] Group 3: Risk Sentiment - Global risk sentiment has weakened, leading to a slight increase in safe-haven demand, which provides some support for the yen [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: In a state of oscillatory adjustment [2]. - Copper: Both domestic and overseas inventories are increasing, putting pressure on prices [2]. - Zinc: Trading within a range [2]. - Lead: Decreasing inventories limit price declines [2]. - Tin: Declining from a high level [2]. - Aluminum: Slightly stabilizing [2]. - Alumina: Trading within a range [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support levels and are under pressure, moving in a volatile manner [2]. - Stainless steel: Weak market realities are suppressing steel prices, but there is limited downside [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 918.52, down 1.18%, and the night - session closing price was 929.84, up 0.94%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 11687, down 1.78%, and the night - session closing price was 11949, up 0.51%. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, ETF holdings, inventories, and price spreads [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "small non - farm" ADP weekly employment data showed that the average weekly employment in the US private sector decreased by 2500 people in the four weeks up to November 1st. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week of October 18th was 232,000, the first release since the government shutdown led to the absence of official reports. The Saudi Crown Prince's visit to the US and related investment and trade news, Trump's claim of selecting a Fed chair candidate, and the Japanese central bank governor's hint of a rate - hike determination [4][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 0 [6]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 85,660, down 0.91%, and the night - session closing price was 85900, up 0.28%. Both domestic and overseas inventories increased, and there were changes in price spreads [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Before the release of NVIDIA's earnings report and the non - farm payroll report, investors chose to stay on the sidelines. Amazon's issuance of large - scale bonds and warnings from the "New Bond King" about the private credit market led to the selling of risk assets. The "New Fed Wire" reported that there may be at least 3 dissenting votes at the Fed's December meeting. Peruvian copper production increased in September, and a copper mine project in Chile obtained environmental approval. Chinese copper product output declined in October [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 0 [10]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22310, down 0.69%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, price spreads, and inventories [11]. - **News**: The White House is reviewing a new rule to tax US citizens' overseas crypto - assets. Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Anthropic established a strategic partnership with significant investments [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17230, down 0.72%. Both domestic and overseas inventories decreased [14]. - **News**: Similar to the macro news in the copper section, investors were cautious before the release of important reports, and there may be dissenting votes at the Fed's December meeting [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 288,890, down 0.51%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and price spreads [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the gold and silver section, including employment data, Saudi - US relations, Fed chair selection, and Japanese central bank news [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of - 1 [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: For aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21465. There were changes in trading volume, positions, price spreads, inventories, and corporate profitability. For alumina and cast aluminum alloy, there were also corresponding price and trading data changes [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: Similar to the copper and lead sections, including employment data and Fed - related news [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all have a trend intensity of 0 [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 114,840, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,365. There were changes in trading volume, positions, price spreads, and industry - related data [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesian forestry authorities took over a nickel - mining area, China suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, Indonesia imposed sanctions on mining companies, and there were regulations on mining project approvals. Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on China, and Indonesia restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses [25][26][27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [29].

波动性已明确回归美国科技股市场，纳斯达克100指数 (Nasdaq 100) 在过去一周经历了剧烈震荡，市场情绪从周初的乐观迅速转向了本周伊始的深度谨慎。 这指数相比之前一周和一个月，恐慌指数已从"恐慌"级别急剧升至"极度恐慌"的区间。这一显著的跳升清晰地反映了全球金融市场投资者对当前复杂且多变 局势的高度不安与迷茫。 这种"极度恐慌"的信号，显示出市场参与者正在经历剧烈的情绪波动，并且对未来资产价格的走势缺乏明确的预期，导致避险情绪空前高涨。恐慌指数的飙 升通常伴随着股票市场的剧烈抛售、资产相关性趋同以及对安全资产（如国债、黄金）的需求激增。 这指数不仅衡量了市场的波动性，更深层次地揭示了投资者对系统性风险或重大不确定性事件爆发的担忧程度，表明市场正在为潜在的更大动荡做准备。 这种现象，即卖盘压力范围超出买盘动力，通常被市场分析师视为科技板块整体疲弱或缺乏信心的信号。纳斯达克综合指数以科技和成长类个股为主，对市 场情绪与未来盈利及经济增长预期极为敏感。 具体来看，更多成分股创一年新低而非新高，显示市场空头情绪已蔓延，并非局限于少数股票。这一内部指标透露出的信息比指数点位本身更细致，因为整 体指数可能仍被少数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has been weakening due to market expectations that the newly elected Prime Minister, Sanna Takashi, will pressure the Bank of Japan to slow down interest rate hikes, with the USD/JPY exchange rate rising approximately 5% since October 4, reaching 155.00 [1] Group 1: Government Response to Yen Depreciation - Upgrading verbal intervention is highly likely, as the Japanese authorities are closely monitoring the yen's "one-sided and severe" fluctuations, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama expressing heightened vigilance against the yen's volatility [2] - There is a possibility of signaling recent interest rate hikes, as concerns over the yen's depreciation may prompt Prime Minister Takashi to support raising the policy rate to 0.75% [3] - The Bank of Japan may implement interest rate hikes, with indications from Governor Kazuo Ueda suggesting a gradual adjustment of monetary easing, potentially leading to a rate increase in December or January [4] Group 2: Market Intervention Considerations - The likelihood of direct market intervention is low, as the last intervention occurred in July 2024 when the yen hit a 38-year low against the dollar, and current government members do not show significant concern over yen depreciation [5]

数据显示，日本今年三季度实际GDP（剔除物价变动因素）环比下降0.4%。受美国关税政策影响，三 季度货物及服务贸易出口环比下降1.2%，进口因内需疲软环比下降0.1%。外需对当季经济增长的贡献 为负0.2个百分点。内需方面，当季占日本经济比重一半以上的个人消费环比微增0.1%；内需的另一支 柱企业设备投资环比增长1.0%，包括政府消费、公共投资等在内的公共需求环比增长0.5%。与此同 时，民间住宅投资环比下降9.4%，民间库存变动也抑制了当季内需增长。总体来看，内需对当季经济 增长的贡献为负0.2个百分点。 该数据证实了不少市场人士的担忧：美国政府4月开始加征汽车关税及所谓"对等关税"正在重创以汽车 为代表的日本出口产业。尽管日本政府已与特朗普政府达成贸易协议，但日本公司对美国出口商品仍面 临15%的关税，这可能成为未来日本经济表现疲弱的重要推手。日本内阁府此前发布中期经济预测报告 称，考虑到美国关税政策带来经济下行压力以及物价持续上涨造成消费疲软，日本政府将2025财年 （2025年4月至2026年3月）经济增长预期由此前的1.2%下调至0.7%。 有经济学家表示，日本三季度GDP收缩可能会提升高市早苗内阁 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs Asset Management's 2026 investment outlook report indicates a divergence in central bank policies across major markets, influenced by varying economic conditions [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Central Bank Policies - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice by 2026 due to a weak labor market [1] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future [1] - The Bank of England may resume rate cuts in December, influenced by improving inflation, a relatively weak labor market, and potential tax increases [1] - Japan's high inflation and strong growth may lead to an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, further supported by recent political changes and a shift towards expansionary fiscal policy [1]