Market Overview - The Japanese stock market opened lower and experienced significant declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 900 points and falling below the 40,000 mark, representing a decline of more than 2% [1][2] - The Japanese yen also saw a sharp decline against the US dollar, while the 5-year Japanese government bond yield fell by 9 basis points to 0.99% [1] Banking Sector Impact - The banking sector faced a collective downturn, with the Tokyo Stock Exchange Bank Index dropping over 4% [1][2] - Notable declines in individual bank stocks included Mizuho Financial Group down nearly 5%, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Chiba Bank, and Fukuoka Financial all down over 4%, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial down 3.90% [2] Economic Policy and Inflation Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its policy rate at 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes since the rate was raised earlier this year [3] - The BOJ revised its core CPI inflation forecast for fiscal years 2025 to 2027, increasing the expected inflation rate from 2.2% to 2.7% for 2025, influenced by rising food prices [3] - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the domestic inflation rate is strengthening, reducing the likelihood of returning to deflation, and suggested that the BOJ will closely monitor factors affecting wage and price increases for potential policy adjustments, including interest rate hikes [4] Interest Rate Expectations - A growing number of analysts predict that the BOJ may raise interest rates sooner than previously expected, with 42% of economists surveyed anticipating a rate hike in October [5] - The survey indicated that while no one expected a rate hike in September, about 25% of respondents believed it could happen as early as next month, with 60% suggesting October as the earliest possible date [5] Investment Strategy Adjustments - Norinchukin Bank's CEO announced a cautious approach to investments following a significant loss of approximately $12 billion in US Treasury investments, emphasizing the need to correct previous imbalances and reduce concentrated bets [6] - The bank plans to diversify its investment portfolio and dynamically adjust its investment strategy based on the yield curve [6]

Market Overview - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant drop, with the Nikkei 225 index falling over 900 points and breaching the 40,000 mark, resulting in a decline of more than 2% [1][2] - The Japanese yen also saw a sharp decline against the US dollar, while the 5-year Japanese government bond yield decreased by 9 basis points to 0.99% [1] Banking Sector Impact - The banking sector faced a collective downturn, with the Tokyo Stock Exchange Bank Index dropping over 4% [1][2] - Notable declines in individual bank stocks included Mizuho Financial Group down nearly 5%, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Chiba Bank, and Fukuoka Financial all down over 4%, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial down 3.90% [2] Economic Policy and Inflation - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that the recently reached US-Japan trade agreement is a win-win, but executing the terms will be more challenging [3] - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy interest rate at 0.5% but raised its core CPI inflation forecast for fiscal years 2025 to 2027, indicating a recognition of strong inflation momentum [3] - The Bank of Japan's report projected a 2.7% increase in consumer prices excluding fresh food for 2025, up from a previous forecast of 2.2% [3] Interest Rate Outlook - There is growing speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates sooner than expected, with 42% of economists surveyed predicting a rate hike in October [5] - Approximately 60% of respondents believe the earliest possible rate increase could occur next month, reflecting a shift in sentiment towards a more imminent rate adjustment [6] Investment Strategy Adjustments - Norinchukin Bank's CEO announced a more cautious investment approach following a $12 billion loss in US Treasury investments, emphasizing the need to correct previous risk imbalances [7] - The bank plans to diversify its investment portfolio and reduce exposure to long-term Japanese government bonds, focusing on dynamic adjustments based on yield curves [7]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its benchmark policy interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, but signaled a strong inclination towards future rate hikes [1][3] - The Bank of Japan significantly raised its inflation forecast, projecting the core CPI for fiscal year 2025 to reach between 2.8% and 3.0%, up from the previous estimate of 2.2% to 2.4% [3] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that if economic and price trends align with expectations, the central bank will "gradually raise policy rates and adjust the degree of monetary easing," which was interpreted as a clear signal for potential rate hikes [6] Group 2 - Despite the signals for rate hikes, there remains market uncertainty regarding the timing, with economists suggesting that the Bank of Japan may raise rates by the end of the year, contingent on the impact of tariffs on third-quarter economic data [8] - Future policy direction of the Bank of Japan will depend on whether inflation remains persistent, consumer spending recovers, and changes in the global trade environment [8] - If economic data meets expectations, the Bank of Japan may take action to further tighten monetary policy in October or December [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated to a four-month low against the US dollar, raising concerns among Japanese financial officials about potential government intervention in the foreign exchange market to support the yen [1][3][4]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate - The USD/JPY exchange rate reached 150.89 yen per dollar, marking the lowest level since March 28, with the rate reported at 150.58 yen at the time of publication [3]. - Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu expressed concerns about the current exchange rate trends, emphasizing the importance of stable currency fluctuations that reflect economic fundamentals [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Predictions - Kato indicated that the US tariffs on Japan could impact the Japanese economy, and the government will continue to analyze the tariffs' effects on Japanese industries [5]. - Marito Ueda from SBI Liquidity Market Research warned that the yen could depreciate to 155 against the dollar, which could trigger intervention from Japanese authorities to support the yen [5]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Currency Movements - The yen's decline is closely linked to the recent strengthening of the US dollar, which has been bolstered by reduced concerns over trade wars and a slightly hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve [7]. - The US dollar index surpassed 100.10 for the first time since May 29, reflecting a strong dollar environment [7]. - The Bank of Japan's dovish stance, as indicated by Governor Ueda, suggests a tolerance for the current weakness of the yen, which has led to increased dollar buying [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain the interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, while raising its inflation and economic growth forecasts for the year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The BOJ has kept the interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, which was anticipated by the market [2][4]. - Following the decision, the USD/JPY exchange rate saw a short-term increase, reported at 148.90 [4]. Inflation Forecast - The BOJ has revised its core Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasts upward, expecting potential consumer inflation to align with the 2% target in the latter half of the fiscal years 2025 to 2027. The new median core CPI forecasts for these years are 2.7%, 1.8%, and 2.0%, compared to previous forecasts of 2.2%, 1.7%, and 1.9% [4]. Economic Growth Outlook - The BOJ has also increased its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025, adjusting the GDP growth expectation from 0.5% to 0.6% [4]. Economic Risks - The BOJ noted that the economic outlook carries downside risks, particularly due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies. Despite a mild recovery in the Japanese economy, some weaknesses persist [5]. - Recent progress in trade agreements between Japan and the U.S. is highlighted, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S. and the U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on certain Japanese imports [5]. Future Rate Hikes - There is a consensus among various institutions that a rate hike in October is likely, with HSBC predicting a 25 basis point increase to 0.75% [6]. - Other institutions, such as the Netherlands International and Mizuho Bank, also view October as a potential time for a rate hike, with Mizuho suggesting it could be the last hike of the year [7]. - The BOJ Governor is scheduled to hold a press conference to explain the rate decision, indicating ongoing communication regarding monetary policy [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% while raising its inflation forecast, indicating a potential shift towards interest rate hikes in the near future [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The BOJ has increased its average inflation forecast for the current fiscal year from 2.2% to 2.7%, surpassing market expectations of 2.5% [1]. - The BOJ has also slightly raised its economic growth forecast for 2026 and 2027, reflecting a more optimistic outlook [1][4]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The BOJ's monetary policy committee has assessed the overall risk of inflation to be balanced, suggesting a readiness to consider interest rate hikes if conditions allow [4][8]. - The central bank's latest report indicates that trade uncertainties have decreased, allowing for a more focused evaluation of the economic impact of tariffs [6][8]. Market Reactions - Following the BOJ's announcement, the Japanese yen appreciated against the US dollar, and the yield on 2-year Japanese government bonds rose by 1.5 basis points to 0.835% [4][6]. - The BOJ's adjustments in inflation expectations are driven by rising food prices, particularly rice, which have contributed to Japan having one of the highest inflation rates among G7 countries [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate, with a potential increase of at least 25 basis points by the end of the year, influenced by the US-Japan trade agreement and domestic political conditions. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Reuters survey indicates the Bank of Japan is likely to keep rates unchanged, with no rate hike expected in September, but a minimum increase of 25 basis points by year-end [1] - Capital Economics anticipates the Bank of Japan will maintain rates, possibly restarting the rate hike cycle in October, as the trade agreement mitigates key risks [1] - Dutch Bank predicts the Bank of Japan will hold rates steady and positively assess the trade agreement, with October being a potential time for a rate hike [1] - HSBC forecasts the Bank of Japan will keep rates unchanged, with the trade agreement potentially guiding monetary policy back to normal, leading to a 25 basis point increase to 0.75% in October [1] - Credit Agricole expects the Bank of Japan to maintain rates, with the next hike possibly occurring next year if the new government implements aggressive fiscal policies [1] - Citigroup believes the Bank of Japan will keep rates unchanged, with the trade agreement paving the way for an earlier-than-expected rate hike [1] - Bank of America anticipates the Bank of Japan will maintain rates, but may adjust its policy tone due to reduced trade uncertainties [1] - Mitsubishi UFJ predicts the Bank of Japan will hold rates steady while raising the core CPI forecast for FY2025, with a 25 basis point increase expected in January [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Political Factors - Nomura Securities suggests the Bank of Japan will keep rates unchanged, with the trade agreement opening the door for an October rate hike, although the market may be overestimating the risks from the leadership change in the ruling party [2] - Mizuho Bank expects the Bank of Japan to maintain rates, with a 25 basis point increase in October, potentially being the last hike as the government may not favor rates rising to 1% [2] - Allianz Global anticipates the Bank of Japan will keep rates unchanged without strong policy guidance, focusing on the assessment of changing risk environments by Governor Ueda [2]

智通财经APP获悉，日本央行将于本周四公布利率决议和经济前景展望报告。市场普遍预计日本央行将 基准利率维持在0.5%不变，并可能会上调本财年的通胀预测。在美日贸易协议减少一些不确定性后， 投资者正在寻找今年再次加息的迹象。 本次会议的主要焦点将是日本央行今年是否会再次加息。目前市场预计年底前加息的可能性约为75%。 据知情人士此前透露，在日美贸易协议消除了一个关键的不确定性因素后，日本央行官员有可能考虑再 次加息。 由于仍需评估关税的实际影响，日本央行目前不会考虑突然加息。日本央行副行长内田真一上周表示， 尽管该协议是一个重大突破，但不确定性仍然很高。 不过，市场对日本央行再次加息的预期升温，10月成为下一次加息的潜在时间点。上周，德意志银行证 券和巴克莱证券均将加息预期提前至10 月。 美国和日本于7月22日意外达成贸易协议，将大部分关税定为15%。此前，欧盟和美国也达成了类似的 协议，缓解了人们对全球经济的担忧。 知情人士透露，日本央行官员认为此次谈判的结果大致符合预期，因此可能无需对日本央行的整体经济 展望做出重大调整。 日本央行在4月份的展望报告中表示，由于关税的影响，经济增长预计会暂时停滞，之后会有 ...

日本央行料维持利率不变 可能调高物价展望 金十数据7月30日讯，机构分析预计日本央行周四将维持基准利率不变，并上调通胀预期。在美日贸易 协议减少了一些不确定性后，投资者正在寻找今年再次加息的迹象。这次会议的主要焦点将是日本央行 在多大程度上发出今年再次加息的信号，交易员目前认为年底前加息的可能性约为75%。知情人士早些 时候表示，日本央行官员认为，在日美贸易协议消除了一个关键的不确定性来源之后，日本央行有可能 考虑再次加息。不过由于辨别关税实际影响的关键任务仍然存在，日本央行目前不会考虑突然加息。尽 管如此，寻找日本央行加息暗示的势头正在逐渐增强，10月作为下一次加息的潜在时机的观点越来越受 市场欢迎。 ...

前日本央行副行长Nakaso：随着对经济和通胀将符合预期的信心恢复，日本央行可能恢复加息。 ...