1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, the short - term outlook is mainly "oscillating" [1][3][5][6][8]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the current energy and chemical market is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international policies, and crude oil price trends. Most product prices are expected to show oscillating trends, with some facing downward pressure due to factors like increased supply or geopolitical influences [1][3][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI November contract closed down $0.81 to $57.46 per barrel, a 1.39% drop; Brent December contract closed down $0.85 to $61.06 per barrel, a 1.37% drop; SC2511 closed at 435.1 yuan per barrel, down 8.1 yuan per barrel, a 1.83% decline. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million barrels last week, and EIA crude oil production reached a record high of 13.64 million barrels per day. India may reduce Russian oil imports. Overall, oil prices will continue to decline under supply - demand pressure [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.94% to 2,694 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2512 rose 0.03% to 3,159 yuan per ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. Short - term high - sulfur fundamentals may be slightly stronger than low - sulfur, but under the pressure of Trump's new tariffs on oil prices, the absolute prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils will oscillate weakly [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 rose 0.55% to 3,250 yuan per ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments increased, but the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. There is still some construction rush expectation after the holiday, but previous significant production increases may suppress prices. Under the pressure of Trump's new tariffs on oil prices, asphalt will oscillate weakly in the short term, with a smaller decline than crude oil and fuel oil [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures contracts all rose on Thursday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated, with an average of about 60%. PTA and EG production capacity increased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Polyester chain prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices in the short term, and cost reduction may stimulate polyester factories' restocking demand [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts RU2601, NR, and BR all rose. The main rubber - producing areas are in normal tapping season. The basis of the 20 - type rubber strengthened, and the inventory of downstream tire products is high. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol spot prices showed different trends. The domestic supply has recovered, and overseas Iranian devices have resumed production, but future production increases are limited due to winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins and the positive spread strategy between months [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. The short - term supply will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand in October will gradually decline. With the weakening of crude oil prices, polyolefin prices will be weak [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in different regions showed oscillating trends. The supply remains high, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak. The total inventory pressure is large, and PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 16 and 15, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - U.S. President Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Modi promised to stop purchasing Russian crude oil, but India did not comment. Some Indian refiners are preparing to reduce Russian oil imports. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and EIA crude oil production reached a record high [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17][19][20][22][24][28][29][30]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [31][35][36][39][42][43]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [45][47][50][53][56][58]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread charts between different products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [60][65][66][67]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the cash - flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit charts of PP and LLDPE [69][71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and relevant qualifications [75][76][77][78]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the energy and chemical products are rated as "oscillating weakly", including crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PX, PTA, etc. Some are rated as "oscillating", such as urea, PVC, and caustic soda [4][7][9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall energy and chemical sector continues to be in a weak pattern. The crude oil market is under pressure from fundamentals and macro - disturbances, and its price direction is downward, although the rhythm is affected by various factors. The bottom of the petrochemical industry is determined by crude oil, and due to factors such as over - supply and some varieties' capacity expansion, the chemical industry will maintain a weak trend [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The Fed's hint of a possible October rate cut and the market's expectation of improved Sino - US relations led to a rebound in the US stock market and a significant rise in the Chinese A - share market on Wednesday. This slightly boosted the crude oil price, which had fallen to a five - month low. The reports from three major energy agencies show that the expected growth in global crude oil demand in 2025 is 700,000 barrels per day, which contradicts the large - scale production increases of OPEC + and some countries [2] 3.2 Sector Logic - Chemical products continue to be in a weak pattern. The measure of imposing port fees on each other's ships by China and the US has little impact on the supply - demand of varieties, only causing some disturbances in the trading process. The bottom of the petrochemical industry is determined by crude oil, and due to factors such as some varieties' good benefits and capacity expansion, the chemical industry will maintain a weak trend [3] 3.3 Variety Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Macro factors affect the rhythm, and the fundamentals are under continuous pressure. The API data shows a significant accumulation of US crude oil inventories last week, and the global supply is in a production - increasing period dominated by the high - growth rate of OPEC + production. The oil price is expected to continue to be weakly oscillating [7] - **Asphalt**: The decline has slowed down, and the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate. The geopolitical premium has declined, the supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the over - valuation premium is starting to fall [9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price has entered an oscillating mode. The end of the Palestine - Israel conflict is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, and the demand is still weak [9] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [10] - **PX**: The international oil price is in a stalemate, and PX has limited variables and follows the market to consolidate. The supply and demand are both strong, and the processing fee support is enhanced [12] - **PTA**: The polyester profit has expanded passively, and the sales volume has increased. However, the PTA processing fee is still under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable, and the spot benefit is still under pressure [12] - **Short - Fiber**: The processing fee support is good, and the factory's willingness to sell goods has increased. The overall supply - demand pattern has certain support in the short term [18] - **Bottle Chip**: The short - term processing fee of bottle chips has improved. The upstream polyester raw materials are weakly sorted, and attention should be paid to whether polyester factories increase production due to profit repair [19] - **Methanol**: The port inventory has slightly decreased, and methanol is expected to oscillate widely. The port inventory is still at a relatively high level, but considering the possible disturbances in Iran in winter, methanol still has low - buying value [23] - **Urea**: The spot price is firm, but the futures price is under pressure. The supply - demand pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" remains unchanged, and the enterprise inventory continues to accumulate [24] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: There are no obvious positive factors, and the supply - demand is relatively under pressure. The futures price is seeking support. There is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation in the far - month, and the price is expected to be weakly sorted [16] - **PP**: The oil price is weakly operating, and PP continues to decline. The supply - demand fundamentals support is limited, and the high inventory will suppress the price [29] - **Plastic**: The oil price has fallen, and combined with macro - disturbances, plastic oscillates weakly. The self - fundamental support is limited, and the upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory [28] - **Styrene**: The price has broken through the previous low and rebounded slightly after the decline. The high port inventory is the main pressure, and the price is expected to have limited rebound [15] - **PVC**: It has low valuation and weak expectations and oscillates. The macro - level Sino - US tariff disturbance has reappeared, and the micro - level fundamentals are under pressure, with the cost moving down [33] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and the short - position on the futures market should stop profit when the price is low. The short - term spot supply - demand has improved, and future inventory replenishment needs to be concerned [34] 3.4 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, which can reflect the market's expectations for the future price trends of various varieties [35] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each variety are provided, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the market's delivery situation [36] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data shows the price differences between different varieties, which is helpful for cross - variety arbitrage analysis [38] 3.5 Commodity Index - On October 15, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09%; the PPI commodity index was 1321.22, up 0.27%. The energy index was 1122.04, with a daily decline of 0.82%, a 5 - day decline of 4.56%, a 1 - month decline of 6.33%, and a year - to - date decline of 8.62% [280][281]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices continue to show a weak downward trend due to uncertainties in China-US trade tariffs, which still disrupt global crude oil demand. The crude oil supply-demand situation remains loose. OPEC+ continues its production increase policy and has reached a principled agreement to slightly increase production again in November. From September, crude oil consumption gradually declines, with the end of the US consumption peak season marked by Labor Day in early September. Global crude oil consumption in the off - season drops by 1 - 3 million barrels per day compared to the peak season. Geopolitical tensions have eased, reducing geopolitical risks and allowing more crude oil to enter the market. Short - term oil prices are expected to remain weak. The recommended short - term operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure from lukewarm demand and sufficient supply. Although Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased in the week ending October 8, it is expected that the inventory will rise in October due to large supplies received in Asia in September. The spot price difference of fuel oil has increased slightly, but the near - month contract of 0.5% low - sulfur fuel oil still maintains a positive price difference structure, indicating abundant immediate supply. With the expected weak performance of international oil prices, fuel oil lacks strong driving forces. The recommended short - term operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Domestic Market**: SC crude oil closed at 448.6 yuan/barrel, down 5.1 yuan or 1.12% from the previous value; FU high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2700 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan or 1.35%; LU low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3203 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 0.90% [3]. - **Foreign Market**: WTI crude oil closed at $59.56 per barrel, unchanged; Brent crude oil closed at $63.39 per barrel, unchanged; Nymex gasoline closed at $1.8015 per gallon, unchanged; ICE diesel closed at $659.50 per ton, unchanged; Nymex natural gas closed at $3.101 per mmBtu, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spread Data - **Crude Oil Spread**: SC - WTI spread was 3.60 yuan/barrel, down 0.73 yuan or 16.86%; SC - Brent spread was - 0.23 yuan/barrel, down 0.73 yuan or 144.66%; Brent - WTI spread was $3.83 per barrel, unchanged; SC monthly spread was - $1.00 per barrel, up $0.30 or - 23.08%; WTI monthly spread was $0.42 per barrel, unchanged; Brent monthly spread was $0.39 per barrel, unchanged [3]. - **Fuel Oil Spread**: FU monthly spread was 17 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 10.53%; LU monthly spread was 7 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 16.67%; FU - SC spread was - 33 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or 1.82%; LU - SC spread was 44 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 1.47%; LU - FU spread was 503 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 1.62% [3][4]. 3.3 Spot Prices - **Crude Oil**: Oman crude oil was at $65.6 per barrel, down $1.35 or 2.02%; Russian ESPO was at $60.43 per barrel, down $0.89 or 1.45%; Brent Dtd was at $67.67 per barrel, down $2.62 or 3.87% [4]. - **Fuel Oil**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was at $377 per ton, down $8 or 2.08%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was at $452.5 per ton, down $10 or 2.21% [4]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **US EIA Data**: Crude oil commercial inventory was 420,261 thousand barrels, up 3,715 thousand barrels or 0.89%; gasoline inventory was 219,093 thousand barrels, down 1,601 thousand barrels or 0.73%; distillate oil inventory was 121,559 thousand barrels, down 2,018 thousand barrels or 1.63%; US production was 13,629 thousand barrels per day, up 124 thousand barrels per day or 0.92%; refined oil inventory was 44,540 thousand barrels, down 141 thousand barrels or 0.32% [4]. - **Singapore ESG Data**: Fuel oil inventory was 23,699 thousand barrels, up 314 thousand barrels or 1.34% [4]. - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: SC crude oil warehouse receipts were 5,401,000, unchanged; FU fuel oil warehouse receipts were 45,800, unchanged; LU fuel oil warehouse receipts were 13,080, unchanged [4]. 3.5 Macro and Shipping Data - **Macro Data**: The US dollar index was 99.2595, up 0.4372 or 0.44%; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.05%; the RMB/US dollar exchange rate was 7.2545, unchanged; the Baltic BDI was 2,144, up 208 or 10.74% [4]. - **Shipping Data**: The crude oil freight rate BDTI was 1,141, up 22 or 1.97%; the refined oil freight rate BCTI was 551, down 9 or 1.61% [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint OPEC+ is gradually exiting the production cut action, leading to an expected increase in crude oil supply. On the demand side, the US government shutdown and the expectation of a new round of tariff policies cast a shadow over the global energy demand outlook. Additionally, the partial ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced the geopolitical premium effect included in crude oil. The fundamental driving force is weak [2][28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices were oscillating weakly. The SC2512 contract opened at 472 for the week, reached a high of 459, a low of 463, and closed at 463, with a weekly increase of 17.5 or 3.64% [3]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis - **OPEC**: OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production. In September, OPEC's production increased by 400,000 barrels per day month - on - month, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia's increase of 320,000 barrels per day. Iraq's production is expected to increase in October. OPEC+ countries updated their compensation production cut plans from September 2025 to June 2026. Voluntary production - cut OPEC+ countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The partial ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced the geopolitical premium effect of crude oil [3][4]. - **Russia**: In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In 2025, the expected production is 515 - 520 million tons. In August 2025, Russia's crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 barrels per day. Due to the attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine, Russia's crude oil exports are approaching a high level. In September, its exports to India increased by 29% to 1.73 million barrels per day, to Turkey increased by 11% to 375,000 barrels per day, and to China decreased by 12% to 1.12 million barrels per day [6]. - **US**: As of the week ending October 3, the US crude oil daily production was 13.629 million barrels, an increase of 124,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week and 229,000 barrels per day compared to the same period last year. The EIA estimates that from 3Q25 to 2Q26, the global oil inventory will build by more than 2 million barrels per day on average. The predicted average price of Brent crude oil next year is $51 per barrel [7]. - **Americas**: The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and for 2026 from 1.9 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. Non - OPEC+ producers plan to increase production by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and slightly more than 1 million barrels per day next year [13]. - **Inventory**: As of July 2025, OECD commercial inventories were 2.761 billion barrels, an increase of 2.4 million barrels from the previous month. As of the week ending October 3, US crude oil inventories increased by about 2.8 million barrels, far exceeding the market expectation of 2.3 million barrels [14]. - **Consumption**: The IEA has raised the oil demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day and maintained the average oil demand growth forecast for 2026 at 700,000 barrels per day. BP has postponed its forecast of the global oil demand peak from 2025 to 2030. As of the four - week period ending October 3, the US refined oil demand was 20.897 million barrels per day on average, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [19][20]. - **Refined oil processing fee**: In the week of September 26, the weekly average comprehensive profit of Shandong independent refineries processing imported crude oil was 186 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18 yuan per ton. The profit of major refineries was 823 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 99 yuan per ton [21]. - **Refinery operation rate**: As of the week ending October 9, 2025, the US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.476 million barrels per day, an increase of 52,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the refinery operation rate was 93.00%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous week. The operation rate of major refineries in China was 62.24%, a decrease of 1.26% from the previous week, and the operation rate of Shandong local refineries was 50.43%, a decrease of 3.06% from the previous week [23]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy OPEC+ is gradually exiting the production cut action, leading to an increase in crude oil supply. On the demand side, the US government shutdown and the expectation of a new round of tariff policies cast a shadow over the global energy demand outlook. Additionally, the partial ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced the geopolitical premium effect included in crude oil. The fundamental driving force is weak [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resurgence of the tariff war by President Trump and the ongoing shutdown of the US federal government have led to a significant decline of 4.27% in the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract last Friday, closing at 448.5 yuan per barrel. It is expected that the contract will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [5]. - The continuous shutdown of the US federal government, the decision of 8 OPEC+ oil - producing countries to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation have all contributed to the weakening of support for oil prices. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures will maintain a weak and volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Price Slightly Rises, Basis Discount Significantly Narrows - As of the week ending October 10, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area was 63.53 US dollars per barrel, equivalent to 451.4 yuan per barrel, a slight increase of 0.6 yuan per barrel compared to before the holiday. The main 2511 contract of domestic crude oil futures closed at 461.9 yuan per barrel, a significant weekly decline of 17.8 yuan per barrel. The basis was 10.5 yuan per barrel, and the discount significantly narrowed [9]. 3.1.2 Multiple Negative Factors Lead to a Sharp Decline in Crude Oil - President Trump's tariff war and the US federal government shutdown led to a collective decline in the peripheral financial markets last Friday. The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract closed 4.27% lower at 448.5 yuan per barrel. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [13][14]. 3.2 Upgrading of Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus, Accelerating Production Increase 3.2.1 OPEC+ Accelerates Capacity Release, Intensifying Supply Surplus Expectations - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has shifted from a production - cut cycle to a production - increase cycle, with a cumulative production increase of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August. In August 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 27.948 million barrels per day, a significant monthly increase of 478,000 barrels per day and a significant annual increase of 1.296 million barrels per day. It is expected that OPEC+ oil - producing countries will accelerate production increases, increasing supply pressure [21][22][23]. 3.2.2 Non - OPEC Oil - Producing Countries Maintain High - Level Production Capacity - As of the week ending October 3, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 422, a slight weekly decrease of 2 and a decrease of 57 compared to the same period last year. The daily crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, a significant weekly increase of 124,000 barrels per day and a significant annual increase of 429,000 barrels per day. However, the growth rate of US domestic crude oil production is expected to slow down [37]. 3.2.3 The Peak Season of Crude Oil Demand in the Northern Hemisphere is Coming to an End - After entering October, the peak season of oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere ends, demand weakens, and inventory accumulation pressure increases. Different energy institutions have different forecasts for the global crude oil market, but overall, there are concerns about supply - demand imbalances [41]. 3.2.4 A Significant Increase in US Crude Oil Inventories and a Slight Increase in Refinery Utilization Rate - As of the week ending October 3, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories reached 420.3 million barrels, a significant weekly increase of 3.715 million barrels. The refinery utilization rate was 92.4%, a slight weekly increase of 1.0 percentage point [44]. 3.2.5 A Slight Increase in China's Crude Oil Imports in August 2025 - In August 2025, China's crude oil imports reached 49.492 million tons, a significant monthly increase of 2.288 million tons and a slight annual increase of 392,000 tons. However, China's crude oil processing and import consumption may be restricted by weak demand [48]. 3.3 Easing Signs in the Middle East Situation, but Risks Remain - During the National Day holiday, the Middle East geopolitical situation showed signs of easing, weakening the support for the crude oil market. The "war premium" has subsided, and the resumption of the oil export channel in the Iraqi Kurdish region has increased the global crude oil supply expectation, suppressing oil prices [59]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Show Mixed Changes Week - on - Week - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position in WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a significant weekly increase of 4,249 contracts. As of September 30, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 202,480 contracts, a significant weekly decrease of 9,903 contracts [64]. 3.5 Conclusion - The ongoing shutdown of the US federal government, the production increase decision of 8 OPEC+ oil - producing countries, and the easing of the Middle East situation are expected to cause domestic crude oil futures to maintain a weak and volatile trend [68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights the unprecedented scale of refinery shutdowns in Russia, leading to increased Ural crude oil exports. As of the end of September, 38% of Russia's refining capacity (approximately 338,000 tons per day) was offline, primarily due to drone attacks from Ukraine [3][4][5] - The upstream sector is experiencing a decline in oil prices, while day rates for jack-up rigs are increasing. Brent crude oil futures closed at $62.73 per barrel, down 2.79% from the previous week [3][18] - The refining sector is seeing a drop in overseas refined oil crack spreads, while olefin spreads are rising. The Singapore refining margin for major products was $20.06 per barrel, down $1.48 from the previous week [3][54] - The polyester sector shows signs of recovery, with expectations for improved profitability as supply and demand conditions improve [3][13] Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices decreased to $62.73 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 2.79%. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.507 million barrels to 420 million barrels [3][20] - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased by 2 to 547, with a year-on-year reduction of 39 rigs [3][32] Refining Sector - The report notes a significant drop in Russian refining capacity due to drone attacks, with a 5.08% quarter-on-quarter decline in processing volume in Q3 2025 [3][9] - The report indicates that the domestic refining product spread has improved, but remains at a low level [3][51] Polyester Sector - The report indicates that PTA profitability has declined, while polyester filament profitability has increased. The average price of PTA in East China was 4,528.6 yuan per ton, down 1.69% week-on-week [3][13] - The report expresses optimism for leading polyester companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, anticipating a gradual improvement in the industry [3][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as upstream oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [3][13]

目前来看，原油行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于原油后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 交子期货表示，目前欧佩克增产背景下盘面利空主导市场，叠加巴以第一阶段停火协议压制，原油整体 保持承压下行为主。短期空头趋势为主。 五矿期货认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到OPEC供 给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低多高抛的区间策略，但当前油 价仍需测试OPEC的出口挺价意愿，建议短期观望为主，等待油价下跌时OPEC出口下滑做出验证。 周五（10月10日）夜盘，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，原油期货主力合约开盘报455.5元/桶，盘 中低位震荡运行；截至收盘，原油主力最高触及457.3元，下方探低444.5元，跌幅达4.55%。 冠通期货分析称，地缘风险未进一步升级，特朗普宣布以色列和哈马斯均已签署和平计划的第一阶段协 议，欧盟制裁方案出台，消费旺季结束，美国非农就业数据疲软令市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+加速增 产，伊拉克库尔德地区的原油出口有望恢复，中东地区出口增加。原油供需偏弱，建议仍以逢高做空为 主。 ...

Core Insights - In September 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $67.6 per barrel, a month-on-month increase of $0.3 per barrel, while the WTI crude oil futures averaged $63.6 per barrel, a decrease of $0.4 per barrel [2][3] - Geopolitical tensions, including the U.S. attack on Venezuelan vessels and ongoing conflicts involving Israel and Russia, have contributed to fluctuations in oil prices, alongside OPEC+'s decision to extend production increases [2][3] Oil Price Review - Brent crude oil futures closed at $67.0 per barrel at the end of September, while WTI crude oil futures closed at $72.4 per barrel [2] - The U.S. significantly increased its crude oil exports, leading to a reduction in inventory levels, despite seasonal refinery maintenance impacting demand [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ announced an extension of production increases for October and November, with a collective reduction target extended until the end of 2026 [3] - Major energy agencies project an increase in global oil demand, with estimates for 2025 ranging from 74,000 to 130,000 barrels per day [3] Industry Policy Developments - A joint announcement from seven ministries in China outlined a plan to stabilize growth in the petrochemical industry, emphasizing strict controls on new refining capacity [4][5] - The plan aims to optimize supply-side conditions in the refining and chemical sectors, amidst global uncertainties [5] Price Forecasts - The expected price range for Brent crude oil in 2025 is between $65 and $75 per barrel, while WTI crude oil is projected to be between $60 and $70 per barrel [5] Recommended Stocks - Key investment recommendations include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum, Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil strengthened significantly this week. The EIA inventory showed a large drawdown during the week, indicating the end of the peak season. Meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts flared up again, causing the market to worry about crude oil supply to some extent. The logic of peak - season demand for crude oil is approaching its end, and geopolitical conflicts are unlikely to have a significant impact. The market is expected to shift back to trading based on weak fundamentals. On the supply side, 1.66 million barrels per day of production is planned to resume, and the OPEC+ meeting in early October may continue to increase production. The magnitude of the increase requires close attention. On the demand side, the economic data released by the US is mediocre, which may suppress demand, and inventories may enter a continuous accumulation phase. Overall, the contradiction of oversupply in the crude oil market may become more prominent, and oil prices are more likely to fall than rise [26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Core Indicators and Views This Week's Key Event Review - **Fundamentals**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending September 19 decreased by 3.821 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 3.42 million barrels in the previous week. As of September 22, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 1.833 million barrels to 14.922 million barrels. The EIA report showed that for the week ending September 19, US crude oil exports decreased by 793,000 barrels per day to 4.484 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels to 13.501 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 607,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 0.15%. The average four - week supply of US crude oil products was 20.466 million barrels per day, a 0.94% increase compared to the same period last year. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 230,000 barrels to 406 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. The US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.495 million barrels per day, an increase of 803,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. A refinery of Rosneft in Russia suspended its oil processing operations after a drone attack on September 20. Iraq reached an agreement to export oil from the Kurdish oil fields through the Iraq - Turkey pipeline. The total number of US oil rigs for the week ending September 26 was 424, compared with 418 in the previous week. The Iraqi oil ministry officials stated that the resumption of the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline will increase the crude oil export volume to nearly 3.6 million barrels per day in the coming days, and Iraq's production and export levels will remain within the OPEC - set quota of 4.2 million barrels per day [10][11][14] - **Macroeconomics**: The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 3.2% in 2025 (previously forecasted as 2.9%) and 2.9% in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). It also expects the US economic growth rate to slow down to 1.8% in 2025 (previously forecasted as 1.6%) and be 1.5% in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). The one - year loan prime rate in China as of September 22 was 3%, in line with expectations and the previous value. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in September was 52, in line with expectations but down from 53 in the previous month; the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in September was 53.9, slightly lower than the expected 54 and down from 54.5 in the previous month. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 20 was 218,000, lower than the expected 235,000. The monthly rate of durable goods orders in the US in August was 2.9%, far exceeding the expected - 0.5%. The final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in the second quarter was 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.3%. The final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the US in the second quarter was 2.6%, slightly higher than the expected 2.5%, and the final quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure in the second quarter was 2.5%, higher than the expected 1.7% [16] - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Trump stated at the United Nations General Assembly on September 23 that if Russia is unwilling to reach an agreement, the US is ready to impose tariffs. He also called on Europe to stop all energy purchases from Russia and urged the United Nations to take anti - Russian oil measures with the US. On September 24, Trump said that with the support of the EU, Ukraine is capable of fighting and regaining its entire territory. On September 23, Polish Prime Minister Tusk announced that the border crossing with Belarus would be reopened at 0:00 on the 25th. On September 25, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) stated that US fighter jets urgently took off to identify and intercept four Russian military aircraft flying near Alaska [18][22] - **Institutional Forecasts**: The EIA short - term energy outlook report expects the WTI crude oil price to be $64.16 per barrel in 2025 (previously expected to be $63.58) and $47.77 per barrel in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). It expects the Brent crude oil price to be $67.80 per barrel in 2025 (previously expected to be $67.22) and $51.43 per barrel in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast) [23] Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar - Key indicators to be released next week include China's official manufacturing PMI for September on September 30, the number of US JOLTs job openings in August and the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for September on September 3, the EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending September 26 on October 1, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 27 on October 2, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US for September on October 3, and the total number of US oil rigs for the week ending October 3 on October 4 [24] 02 Price Basic Data Crude Oil Basic Price - The prices of Brent, WTI, SC main contract, and Middle East main contract on September 26, 2025, were $69.22, $65.72, 491.3 yuan, and $70.62 respectively. The weekly changes were $2.54, $3.32, 4.3 yuan, and $1.66 respectively, with weekly change rates of 4%, 5%, 1%, and 2% respectively. The monthly changes were $2.52, $2.47, - 4.8 yuan, and $1.37 respectively, with monthly change rates of 4%, 4%, - 1%, and 2% respectively. The annual changes were - $1.87, - $1.95, - 31.9 yuan, and - $1.32 respectively, with annual change rates of - 3%, - 3%, - 6%, and - 2% respectively [33] Crude Oil Forward Price - The report provides the forward curves of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil from September 22 to September 26, 2025 [54] Crude Oil Monthly Spread - The report presents the daily data of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil monthly spreads, including the spreads between the first - month contract and the second - month contract, the first - month contract and the third - month contract, and the first - month contract and the sixth - month contract [56] Crude Oil Disk Spread - The report shows the daily data of the spreads between Brent and WTI, Brent and Oman, and the quality spread EFS (Brent - Dubai) [64][67] Main Oil Grade Premiums and Discounts - The report provides the monthly data of premiums and discounts for various oil grades, including Iran's OSP to Asia for light and heavy crude oil, Saudi Arabia's OSP to Asia for ultra - light, extra - light, light, medium, and heavy crude oil, Iraq's OSP to Asia for Basra medium and heavy crude oil, and Kuwait's FOB premiums to Asia [70][72][78] US Dollar Index - The report shows the relationship between the US dollar index and the WTI crude oil price [86] 03 World Crude Oil Supply and Demand World Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - **OPEC Supply - Demand Balance**: The OPEC supply - demand balance table shows the world's crude oil supply and demand situation from 2022 to 2026. The world's total demand is expected to increase from 99.87 million barrels per day in 2022 to 107.1 million barrels per day in 2026, with an average annual increase of about 1.5 million barrels per day. The world's total supply is expected to increase from 100.3 million barrels per day in 2022 to 107.67 million barrels per day in 2026. The supply - demand gap is expected to change from a surplus of 0.43 million barrels per day in 2022 to a slight shortage in some quarters in the future [97][99][100] - **EIA Supply - Demand Forecast**: The EIA's world supply - demand balance table shows that the world's total production is expected to increase from 102.6 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024 to 106.99 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. The world's total consumption is expected to increase from 101.79 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024 to 105.66 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. The net extraction of global crude oil and other oil product inventories is expected to show a downward trend overall [107][109] OPEC Major Country Production - The OPEC+ quota table shows the production quotas of major OPEC countries from January to October 2025. The total quota of OPEC+ is expected to increase from 30.423 million barrels per day in January to 33.017 million barrels per day in October, with a total increase of 2.594 million barrels per day [94] Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - The report provides the supply and demand forecasts of OPEC and EIA, including the production and consumption of different regions and countries, as well as the changes in inventories [97][107] Refinery Maintenance Capacity - Not provided in the document Refining Profit - Not provided in the document Crude Oil Inventory - The OPEC report shows the changes in OECD commercial inventories, strategic reserve inventories, and total inventories from 2022 to 2026. The EIA report shows the net extraction of crude oil and other oil product inventories in the world, the US, and other OECD countries from the first quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2026, as well as the ending commercial inventories of crude oil and other oil products in OECD countries [100][109]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Affected by the Fed's cautious rate - cut expectations, the copper price is still on a strong trend due to tight fundamentals, though the upward momentum is weaker than the previous day [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply and demand gradually tightening, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the short term, supported by the peak - season and pre - holiday stocking expectations [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply - demand of crude oil is weakening. It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long term [12]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner due to high supply - demand pressure of crude oil and limited follow - up of spot prices [13][14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand falls short of expectations and there is no actual anti - involution policy [15]. - **Plastic**: The plastic market is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand is underwhelming and no anti - involution policy has been implemented [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to face downward pressure in the near term as downstream pre - holiday stocking ends and new capacity comes on stream [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: Attention should be paid to the price transmission between upstream and downstream after the price increase and the macro - market during the National Day holiday [20]. - **Urea**: The urea market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak fundamentals and limited upward momentum [21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 26th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Red dates rose nearly 3%, and silver rose over 2%, while coke and coking coal fell over 2% [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:16 on September 26th, funds flowed into CSI 1000 2512, silver 2512, and CSI 500 2512, while flowing out of SSE 50 2512, copper 2511, and iron ore 2601 [7]. 3.2 Individual Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: The supply of refined copper remains tight due to smelter overhauls and reduced scrap copper supply. The demand is driven by pre - holiday replenishment [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by the reduction of lithium mica - sourced production, and the demand for pre - holiday stocking is ending [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production adjustment will increase the pressure in Q4. The travel peak season is over, but there are factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is restricted by funds and weather. The cost support is strengthening, but the follow - up supply - demand pressure of crude oil is high [13][14]. - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is rising, but the peak - season demand is weak. There are new capacity releases and inventory reduction by petrochemical enterprises [15]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is increasing, and the agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the peak - season effect is not obvious [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is increasing, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is high. The cost support is strengthening [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The mine output is increasing, and the downstream inventory is piling up. Attention should be paid to the price increase and holiday market [20]. - **Urea**: The daily output is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high [21][22].