Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term crude oil market is expected to oscillate. The Iran nuclear negotiation will be held this week, and Iran's stance on not giving up the nuclear program will provide some support for oil prices in the short term. However, as the August 1 deadline for the US tariff exemption approaches, there are still many pressures in trade negotiations, and the EU is in a negotiation deadlock, which may bring pressure on future oil prices. Short - term crude oil will operate in the range of 505 - 515, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: US Treasury Secretary Bentsen said the Trump administration focuses on the quality of the trade agreement rather than the timing. The EU is exploring broader counter - measures against the US. Iran will hold a nuclear negotiation with the UK, France, and Germany on Friday, and it still hasn't given up the nuclear program. Overall, it's neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On July 18, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.96 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $70.28 per barrel. The basis was 10.33 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, which is neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory increased by 839,000 barrels in the week ending July 11, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.637 million barrels. The EIA inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, more than the expected decrease of 552,000 barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 213,000 barrels in the week ending July 11. As of July 21, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 4.517 million barrels. Overall, it's bullish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is near the average, which is neutral [3]. - **Main positions**: As of July 15, the main positions of WTI crude oil were long, but the long positions decreased. The main positions of Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased. Overall, it's neutral [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term crude oil will oscillate between 505 - 515, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 2. Recent News - The market is not overly worried about Trump's tough stance in the letter. Many traders believe he may not impose higher tariffs on August 1. US Treasury Secretary Bentsen downplayed the importance of the August 1 deadline, emphasizing the quality of the trade agreement. However, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick described August 1 as the hard deadline for countries to start paying tariffs [5]. - The lack of progress in US trade negotiations and the EU's sanctions have not weakened Russia's energy exports, causing concerns about crude oil demand. As the August 1 deadline approaches, Trump's trade negotiation stance has become tougher, and the EU is formulating counter - measures [5]. - The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia last Friday, including sanctioning India's Nayara Energy Company for processing Russian crude oil and further lowering the price cap of Russian crude oil. The restrictions on Russian diesel will take full effect next January, and the market doesn't worry too much about supply [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish factors**: The resurgence of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increasing summer demand [6]. - **Bearish factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies, and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - **Market driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts will boost the market, and the market is waiting for the peak summer demand season in the medium - to - long term [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil decreased by - 0.10%, - 0.15%, - 1.57%, and - 0.38% respectively [7]. - **Spot market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil changed by - 1.05%, - 0.21%, - 0.01%, - 0.38%, and 0.10% respectively [9]. - **Inventory data**: The API inventory increased by 839,000 barrels in the week ending July 11, and the EIA inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the same period [3][10][14]. 5. Position Data - **WTI crude oil**: As of July 15, the net long position was 162,427, a decrease of 46,947 from the previous period [16]. - **Brent crude oil**: As of July 15, the net long position data was not provided completely, but the long positions increased compared to the previous period [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the oil price will show a volatile trend [3]. Core View - Supported by the expectation of the consumption peak season, the oil price will maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Geopolitical factors in the short - term are positive, while macro - financial factors are negative. In the medium - to - long - term, supply and demand still have a loosening trend, and the price center will move down [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production. EIA predicts that the global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 will be 10,460 million barrels per day, an increase of 180 million barrels per day compared to 2024. In June 2025, OPEC's production increased by 21.9 - 42 million barrels per day compared to May, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production also increased [3]. - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different outlooks on demand. EIA expects the global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 to be 10,354 million barrels per day, an increase of 80 million barrels per day compared to 2024. IEA continues to lower the demand growth rate forecast [3]. - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: As of the week ending July 11, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decline of 0.91%. There were also changes in refined oil and gasoline inventories [3]. - **Oil - Producing Countries' Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC plans to increase production by 55 million barrels per day in September and then start a new round of production increase of 166 million barrels per day. UAE aims to reach a production capacity of 5 million barrels per day in 2027 [3]. - **Geopolitical Factors (Short - Term)**: The EU has reached an agreement on the 18th sanctions package against Russia, and Trump has put forward requirements for Russia to end the war in Ukraine. These measures may affect Russia's oil exports [3]. - **Macro - Financial Factors (Short - Term)**: Trump is promoting the collection of at least 15% - 20% tariffs in agreements with the EU, which may have a negative impact on the oil market [3]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, supported by the consumption peak - season expectation, the market shows a relatively strong oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, supply and demand tend to be loose, and the price center will move down [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rallies. For arbitrage, go long on SC2509 and short on SC2510 [3]. Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Supported by the expectation of the consumption peak season and the impact of sanctions on Russia, international oil prices maintained a relatively strong oscillation. As of July 18, WTI crude oil rose by 2.25 US dollars per barrel (+3.38%), Brent crude oil rose by 2.12 US dollars per barrel (+3.09%), and SC crude oil rose by 10.4 yuan per barrel (+2.07%) [6]. - **Month - Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The month - spread strengthened, while the internal - external spread weakened [8]. - **Forward Curve**: The near - end performance was relatively strong [20]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel declined, while the crack spread of aviation kerosene was stable [23][33]. Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In June 2025, OPEC's production increased, and non - OPEC countries' production also increased. US weekly crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease in the week ending July 11 [53][79]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [80][89]. - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand decreased, and refinery operating rates remained high. In China, the capacity utilization rate of independent refineries increased, and the capacity utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units rebounded [106][115]. - **Macro - Financial**: The US dollar index rebounded, and US Treasury yields increased [137]. - **CFTC Position**: The speculative long positions in WTI crude oil decreased [147].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices remained mainly volatile, rising at the end of the week and then falling back. After the OPEC+ production increase in August, the market also anticipates a continued increase in September. The supply side has relatively high certainty. As the peak demand season approaches, major mainstream institutions have significant differences in their expectations for the peak season, but currently, the peak - season demand cannot be disproven. Subsequently, the market inventory situation should be continuously and closely monitored. If inventory continues to accumulate, the market's peak - season demand expectations will be disappointed, and oil prices are expected to return to the trading logic of supply surplus. Overall, at present, crude oil has insufficient drivers and may mainly experience a weak rebound. In the medium - to - long term, it is advisable to try short positions at high prices [24][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Indicators and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Key Event Review - **Fundamentals**: Iraq set different official selling prices for August - bound Basra Medium crude oil to different regions; Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 173,000 barrels per day in June, and OPEC's crude oil production increased by 220,000 barrels per day; the US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 11 was 839,000 barrels; the UAE's Fujairah Port's refined oil inventory decreased by 1.131 million barrels; the US EIA reported changes in multiple indicators such as crude oil exports, domestic production, and inventories; Indonesia's biodiesel consumption reached 7.42 million kiloliters as of July 16; the US oil drilling rig count decreased to 422 as of July 18 [10][15] - **Macroeconomic**: China - US trade teams are accelerating the implementation of the London framework results; China's exports to the US decreased by 9.9% in the first half of the year, and imports decreased by 7.7%; China's June social消费品 retail总额 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and industrial added value increased by 6.8%; the US June unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.9%, and the unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%; the US June PPI annual rate was 2.3% [14][18] - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Trump may announce a new plan to arm Ukraine, including offensive weapons; the US and European powers set the end of August as the deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran; Iran's foreign minister said Iran is waiting for the US to show "real determination" [19][22] - **Institutional Forecasts**: Goldman Sachs raised its price forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil in the second half of 2025 but maintained its forecast of a supply surplus, expecting prices to fall in 2026 [22] 3.1.2 Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar - Key indicators to be released next week include the US API and EIA crude oil inventories, the Eurozone's European Central Bank deposit mechanism rate, the US initial jobless claims, the US durable goods orders month - on - month rate, and the US oil drilling rig count [23] 3.2 Price Basic Data 3.2.1 Crude Oil Basic Price - Provided price data for Brent, WTI, SC main contract, and Middle - East main contract from July 2024 to July 2025, along with week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes [32] 3.2.2 Crude Oil Forward Price - Presented forward curves for Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil [55] 3.2.3 Crude Oil Monthly Spread - Included daily data on monthly spreads for Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil [57] 3.2.4 Crude Oil Disk Spread - Showed daily data on spreads such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, and Brent - SC [65] 3.2.5 Main Oil Type Premiums and Discounts - Provided monthly data on premiums and discounts for various oil types from different countries to Asia and other regions, as well as the Shandong refinery's crude oil arrival premium and discount [71][84] 3.2.6 US Dollar Index - Displayed the relationship between the US dollar index and WTI crude oil price [86] 3.3 World Crude Oil Supply and Demand 3.3.1 OPEC Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - Provided OPEC's world supply - demand balance sheet from 2022 to 2026, including production, demand, and inventory data in different regions; also presented the quarterly supply - demand differences and OPEC production balance values [95][106] 3.3.2 EIA Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - Provided EIA's world supply - demand balance sheet in July 2025, including production, demand, inventory extraction, and end - of - period inventory data; also showed the quarterly supply - demand differences [108][111] 3.3.3 OPEC Major Oil - Producing Countries' Production and Export - Showed monthly production data for OPEC major oil - producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran, as well as Iran's crude oil export data [115][119]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight crude oil stabilized and rebounded. The unrest in the Kurdish region of Iraq affected crude oil output, and there were again reports of supply - side tightness. US crude oil production is approaching its peak, and OPEC+ production increases are still slightly below the target, which will support oil prices in the short term. It is expected that the price will operate in the range of 520 - 530 in the short term, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2508, the fundamentals are neutral as US economic activity improved slightly and there were events affecting supply; the basis is neutral with spot at par with futures; inventory is bullish as EIA inventory decreased more than expected; the disk is bearish with the 20 - day moving average downward and price above it; the main positions are neutral with different trends in WTI and Brent; short - term price is expected to operate in the 520 - 530 range, and long - term is to wait and see [3]. 2. Recent News - US retail sales in June rebounded more than expected, which may lead the Fed to delay interest rate cuts. Initial jobless claims in the week ending July 12 decreased to 221,000, the lowest since April [5]. - The EU is preparing a list of tariffs on US services and export control measures as a potential retaliation if trade talks with the US fail. Trump plans to impose a 30% tariff on the EU starting from August 1. The list is in addition to the existing retaliatory proposal on 72 billion euros of US imports [5]. - Russia opposes Trump's decision to increase arms shipments to Ukraine and vows not to accept the "blackmail" of new US sanctions [5]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factor: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - Bearish factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months; the US has tense trade relations with other economies; Iran and Israel have reached a cease - fire [6]. - Market driver: Geopolitical conflicts will boost prices in the short term, and the market is waiting for the peak summer demand season in the long term [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude decreased, with declines of - 0.72%, - 0.69%, - 0.15%, and - 3.09% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude decreased, with declines of - 0.75%, - 0.69%, - 2.59%, - 2.73%, and - 3.15% respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory as of July 11 increased by 839,000 barrels, while EIA inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels. Cushing region inventory increased by 213,000 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 4.517 million barrels as of July 17 [3]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude**: As of July 8, the net long position of WTI crude funds decreased by 25,319 to 209,374 [16]. - **Brent Crude**: As of July 8, the net long position of Brent crude funds increased by 55,630 to 222,347 [19].

Report Information - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Products Weekly - Crude Oil [2] - Researcher: Liu Chenrui [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Absolute low inventory and peak season support the downside of oil prices. There is a consensus on the weakening of the medium - term fundamentals, but it is necessary to observe the actual production increase of OPEC and guard against the time point of the outbreak of US trade negotiation risks [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Financial Data - **Crude Oil Price**: The report presents the price trends of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil over a long - term period, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [11][12]. - **CFTC Positioning Data**: It shows the historical data of WTI futures and options management fund positions, including long, short, and net positions, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [13][14][15]. 2. Supply - **US Crude Oil Supply**: US production is 1338.5 barrels per day, with a环比 change of - 0.36% and a同比 change of 0.64%. The net import volume of US crude oil is 325.6 barrels per day, with a环比 change of - 29.43% and a同比 change of 17.93%. The report also shows the trends of US domestic crude oil production, net import volume, and rig platform numbers [8][18][19]. - **OPEC Crude Oil Supply**: It shows the production trends of OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq from 2021 - 2025 [21][22]. - **Non - OPEC Crude Oil Supply**: It shows the production trends of Russia, Canada, and Brazil from 2023 - 2025 [23][24]. 3. Demand - **US Petroleum Demand**: US refinery processing volume is 1700.6 barrels per day, with a环比 change of - 0.58% and a同比 change of - 0.60%. The US refinery operating rate is 94.7%, with a环比 change of - 0.2 pts and a同比 change of - 0.7 pts. The report also shows the seasonal trends of US refinery operating rate, crude oil processing volume, gasoline and diesel apparent demand [8][28][29]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance Seasonality**: It shows the seasonal trends of global, North American, and Northwest European CDU maintenance volumes [31][32][34]. - **Domestic Crude Oil Demand**: It shows the seasonal trends of China's crude oil monthly import volume, daily processing volume, and the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries [35][36]. 4. Inventory - **Global Crude Oil Supply - Demand Forecast**: The July EIA monthly report shows that the annual inventory accumulation rate in 2025 is 107 barrels per day, and provides the supply - demand data for each quarter of 2025 [40]. - **US Petroleum Inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of various US petroleum inventories, including total inventory, refined oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, Cushing crude oil inventory, and Gulf of Mexico crude oil inventory [42][44][45]. - **US Refined Oil Inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories [48][49][51]. - **China's Crude Oil Inventory and Global Floating Storage**: It shows the trends of INE crude oil inventory, global crude oil floating storage, global water - borne crude oil, and global in - transit crude oil [52][53]. - **Other Regions' Petroleum Inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of ARA European crude oil inventory, Northwest European refined oil inventory, and Singapore refined oil inventory [54][55]. 5. Spreads and Premiums - **Global Regional Crack Spreads**: It shows the seasonal trends of crack spreads in the US Gulf, DTD trans - Atlantic, Dubai, and Minas [59][60]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: It shows the seasonal trends of RBOB - WTI, HO - WTI, Gasoline - Dubai (SING), and Gasoil - Dubai (SING) [62][63]. - **Futures Calendar Spreads**: It shows the spreads of WTI and Brent futures [64][65]. - **Regional Spreads**: It shows the spreads of WTI - Brent, SC - Brent, EFS, and SC - WTI [66][67]. - **Freight Rates**: It shows the freight rates from the Arabian Gulf to Ningbo, China, and from Arabia to Singapore and the Arabian Gulf to Japan [68][69]. - **Saudi OSP**: It shows the OSPs of Saudi medium, heavy, and light crude oils exported to different regions [70][71]. - **Different Oil Grade Premiums**: It shows the premiums of Midland WTI, WCS - WTI, and Urals - Dated Brent [73][74][75].

| | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/8 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/7/7 | 美元/桶 | 67.93 | 66.50 | 2.15% | | | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/7/7 | 美元/桶 | 69.58 | 68.30 | 1.87% | | 上 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/7/7 | 美元/吨 | 577.00 | 578.75 | -0.30% | | 游 | | | | | | | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国 | 2025/7/7 | 美元/吨 | 715.00 | 716.50 | -0.21% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/7/7 | 美元/吨 | 842.00 | 839.67 | 0.28% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/7/7 ...

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [6] Core Views - The report highlights significant fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production in August by 548,000 barrels per day [1][16] - Brent crude oil is expected to stabilize between $65 and $75 per barrel in 2025, while WTI crude oil is projected to be in the range of $60 to $70 per barrel [2][19] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In June 2025, the average price of Brent crude futures was $69.9 per barrel, an increase of $5.9 per barrel month-on-month, while WTI averaged $67.6 per barrel, up $6.3 per barrel [1][14] - The highest prices reached were $79 for Brent and $78 for WTI during mid-June due to geopolitical events and declining U.S. oil inventories [1][14] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ announced an acceleration of production in August by 548,000 barrels per day, with plans to complete this increase by September 2025 [16][20] - The report notes that OPEC+ has extended its voluntary production cuts until March 2026, with a gradual restoration of production starting in April 2025 [20][21] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in global oil demand of 720,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, and 740,000 to 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026 [2][17] - The expected demand for 2025 is projected at 105 million barrels per day according to OPEC, IEA, and EIA [2][17] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, CNOOC Development, and Guanghui Energy, all rated as "Outperform" [3][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil price is expected to continue a wide - range volatile trend and may struggle to rebound significantly with the expectation of a looser supply side. It is recommended to keep an eye on the latest minutes of the Fed's monetary policy meeting and the monthly reports of major institutions [65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price showed a wide - range volatile trend and returned to a weaker state in the second half. This week, it may still operate with a weak and volatile trend, lacking clear directional momentum. The recommended price range to watch is 480 - 510 yuan/barrel. Short - spread operations are advisable, and short positions can be cautiously established on price increases. Attention should also be paid to the monthly reports released by major institutions over the weekend [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the oil price had a wide - range volatile movement. It briefly rose on Wednesday due to the unexpected decline in ADP data and the increased market expectation of interest rate cuts. However, after the release of non - farm payroll data, it quickly gave back the gains. In the second half of the week, the market focused on OPEC+ production increases, leading to a continuous weakening of the oil price [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomics - **Non - farm payrolls suppress interest rate cut expectations**: The US June ADP employment number was - 33,000, far lower than the expected 95,000, which led to a surge in market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. But the non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, better than expected. The market abandoned the expectation of a July rate cut, and the expectation of a September rate cut dropped to 80% [24]. - **Uncertainty in US tariffs**: President Trump announced on Friday that he would send letters to trading partners to set unilateral tariff rates, with rates ranging from 10% to 70%, higher than the previous proposed 50%. Negotiations with major trading partners have reached a deadlock, which may make the global economic situation more severe [26]. - **Geopolitical tensions ease**: The US announced a partial suspension of weapon supplies to Ukraine, easing the intensity of the Russia - Ukraine conflict to some extent. However, the Trump - Putin call was ineffective, and there is still uncertainty in the Russia - Ukraine situation. The US plans to restart nuclear negotiations with Iran, which may reduce the market's perception of Middle - East geopolitical volatility [30]. 3.3.2 Supply - **OPEC achieved production increase in May**: The total production of OPEC+ increased by 180,000 barrels per day from April to May. Saudi Arabia, Libya, and the UAE had notable production increases, while Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela had production decreases [33]. - **OPEC+ confirms continued production increase**: There are market rumors that OPEC+ is discussing an additional production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in August. If implemented, it will further increase supply - side pressure. However, the market has become accustomed to OPEC+ production increases, and the production changes in the OPEC monthly report in mid - month are crucial [34]. - **Saudi Arabia's production increases**: Saudi Arabia's oil production has shown an upward trend [38]. - **Iraq's compensatory production cuts**: Iraq has carried out compensatory production cuts [40]. - **US production remains stable**: The US oil production has maintained a relatively stable level [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Slight improvement in summer demand expectations**: There are signs of a slight improvement in the expected oil demand in summer [45]. - **Manufacturing remains in contraction**: The manufacturing PMIs in the US and China indicate that the manufacturing sector is still in a contraction state [48]. - **Slight slowdown in refined oil production**: The production of refined oil has shown a slight slowdown [53]. 3.3.4 Inventory - **Crude oil inventory build - up suppresses oil price performance**: The US API and EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased in the week ending June 28, mainly due to a significant increase in net imports. This eases the previous expectation of low inventory and may increase supply - side pressure [55]. - **Differentiated consumption of refined oil remains weak**: In the week ending June 28, US gasoline inventory increased, mainly due to increased refinery production and weak summer consumption. Refined oil inventory decreased due to increased industrial and transportation demand and increased diesel net exports [59]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - The supply - side changes in the commodity attribute of crude oil are the core factor affecting future oil prices. If OPEC+ production increases and summer consumption does not improve significantly, the oil price may not improve. The non - farm payroll data has suppressed the short - term interest rate cut expectation, increasing macro - economic pressure. Geopolitical conflicts have eased, reducing the impact on oil prices. Overall, the oil price may continue to be volatile and difficult to rebound significantly [65].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for specific companies within the sector [4][5]. Core Insights - OPEC has announced an unexpected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August, but the actual impact of this increase remains to be observed [4][5]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a downward trend in oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $68.3 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.78% [4][18]. - The refining sector is seeing mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads declining, while olefin price spreads show varied trends [4][47]. - The polyester sector is facing profitability challenges, but there are expectations for recovery as supply and demand improve [4][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - OPEC's actual production increase has been lower than expected, with April's total production at approximately 31.1 million barrels per day, a decrease of 210,000 barrels from the previous month [4][8]. - The U.S. oil rig count decreased to 539, down 8 from the previous week and down 46 year-on-year [31][32]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend in crude oil, with potential downward pressure on prices, but expects prices to stabilize at mid-high levels due to OPEC's production cuts and shale oil cost support [4][18]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $14.01 per barrel, down $2.46 from the previous week [51]. - The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread was $22.37 per barrel, up $0.53 from the previous week, with a historical average of $24.86 per barrel [56]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current low levels [4][47]. Polyester Sector - The PTA price has seen a decline, with the average price in East China at 4,971.4 yuan per ton, down 3.26% week-on-week [4][13]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in the polyester industry, with expectations for improved profitability as supply-demand dynamics shift positively [4][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [4][13]. - It also suggests that the upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with high capital expenditure expected to continue, particularly for offshore oil service companies [4][13].

供需偏多，预期偏空 原油月报 2025/07/04 徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03115061 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 04 原油供应 02 宏观&地缘 05 原油需求 03 油品价差 CONTENTS 目录 06 原油库存 01 01 月度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/11 2025/6/18 2025/6/25 2025 ...