Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of crude oil prices, highlighting the factors influencing price movements and potential future trends in the market. Group 1: Current Price Trends - Crude oil futures are currently trading at low prices, with a recent low of $56 per barrel recorded on October 20th [2] - The 50-day moving average (50-DMA) has been acting as a resistance level since the recent low [3] Group 2: Factors Weighing on Oil Prices - Several factors are contributing to the downward pressure on oil prices, including a stronger dollar, firm interest rates, slower US factory activity at a four-month low due to tariffs, and discussions of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could allow for increased Russian oil exports [4] Group 3: Potential Catalysts for Price Increase - Possible catalysts that could lead to higher oil prices include a break of the US dollar below 99, a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, failure of peace agreements, emergence of other geopolitical stresses, and unexpected production cuts from OPEC+ [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The article suggests looking for a close above $59 per barrel as a signal for potential price increases, with a phased approach to adding positions based on moving averages [8] - The strategy includes monitoring futures charts as a guide for trading the USO ETF and adjusting risk levels according to the Average True Range (ATR) strategy as prices rise [8] Group 5: Broader Market Context - There is an increasing focus on commodities, with potential spillover effects into other hard assets like silver and gold, indicating a broader investment strategy for 2026 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, long - term supply and demand remains bearish. With the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, oil prices will still fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA slightly raises the forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC's October production data shows different trends for OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries. IEA also reports production changes in October. Overall, it is bearish [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil and related liquid demand growth in 2025 and 2026, with a neutral outlook [3] - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreases, while strategic petroleum reserve inventory increases. There are also changes in refined oil inventories, showing a bullish sign [3] - **Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC+ plans to increase production slightly in December, which may exacerbate concerns about market supply glut. Saudi Arabia's exports and production reach new highs, being bearish [3] - **Geopolitics (Short - Term)**: The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan and U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies are expected to have a bearish impact on oil prices [3] - **Macro - Finance (Short - Term)**: U.S. employment data and the Fed's interest - rate cut probability changes are bearish factors for oil prices [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rebounds; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [3] Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and the rise of the U.S. dollar index lead to a weak decline in international oil prices. As of November 21, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all fall [7] - **Month - to - Month Spread & Domestic - Foreign Spread**: Near - month spreads weaken, while domestic - foreign spreads strengthen [11] - **Forward Curve**: Near - month spreads strengthen [24] - **Crack Spread**: Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel crack spreads all strengthen [31][43] Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In October 2025, global crude oil production decreases according to EIA. Different organizations report different production trends for OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries. U.S. production also shows changes [65][90] - **Inventory**: U.S. commercial inventory decreases, and Cushing inventory also declines. Northwest European crude oil inventory rises, while Singapore fuel oil inventory falls [91][99] - **Demand**: In the U.S., gasoline implied demand decreases, and refinery operating rates increase. In China, refinery weekly crude oil processing volume shows different trends, and refinery profits improve [109][127] - **Macro - Finance**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December decreases, and the U.S. dollar index rebounds [140] - **CFTC Positioning**: Speculative net short positions in WTI crude oil increase [143] Team Introduction - The energy and chemical research center team of Guomao Futures has 6 members with diverse professional backgrounds and rich experience in fundamental and spot - futures research. The team has won many awards [155]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, long - term supply and demand shows a bearish trend. However, short - term geopolitical factors drive up, so oil prices will fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA slightly raises the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026; OPEC's October production shows a small increase, while Non - OPEC DoC's production decreases; IEA also shows a decline in OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC production in October. Overall, it is bearish [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA lowers the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand growth rate; OPEC keeps the forecast unchanged; IEA slightly raises the forecast. Overall, it is neutral [3] - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increases to the highest level since June 6, 2025, while Cushing crude oil inventory decreases. Different types of refined oil inventories show different changes. It is bearish [3] - **Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC+ plans to increase production slightly in December, which may intensify market supply - surplus concerns. It also agrees to suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. It is bearish [3] - **Geopolitics (Short - Term)**: Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy hubs lead to the suspension of oil exports from Novorossiysk Port, causing about 2.2 million barrels per day of supply interruption. The U.S. new sanctions on Russia bring uncertainty. It is bullish [3] - **Macro - Finance (Short - Term)**: The U.S. adjusts the scope of "reciprocal tariffs", and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is high. It is neutral [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: Oil prices will fluctuate in the short term and the long - term price center will decline [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3] PART TWO: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Sanctions against Russia are further upgraded, and international oil prices fluctuate widely. This week, oil prices first fell and then rose. Geopolitical events are the direct catalyst for the rebound. As of November 14, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures show different price changes [8] - **Monthly Spread & Internal - External Spread**: Near - month spreads weaken, and internal - external spreads strengthen [9] - **Forward Curve**: Near - month spreads strengthen [22] - **Cracking Spread**: Gasoline and diesel cracking spreads decline, and jet fuel cracking spreads also decline [25][35] PART THREE: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production** - Global crude oil production in October 2025 shows different trends according to EIA, OPEC, and IEA data, with an overall decline [57] - U.S. weekly crude oil production increases to 13.862 million barrels per day as of the week of November 7, and the number of active drilling rigs also increases slightly [80] - **Inventory** - U.S. commercial inventory increases by 6.413 million barrels, and Cushing inventory decreases by 346,000 barrels [81] - Northwest European crude oil inventory rises, and Singapore fuel oil inventory falls [90] - **Demand** - In the U.S., gasoline implied demand increases, and refinery operating rate rises [100] - In China, independent refinery capacity utilization shows different trends, with some regions affected by equipment failures and some rising [117] - **Refinery Profit**: In China, the gross profit of major refineries rebounds, and the gasoline and diesel cracking spreads also rebound [118] - **Macro - Finance**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December decreases, and the U.S. dollar index fluctuates [131] - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreases [134]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Trading Recommendations Market Review - WTI: Opened at $60.96, closed at $58.48, high of $61.01, low of $58.30, down 4.12%, with a trading volume of 20.31 million lots [6] - Brent: Opened at $65.15, closed at $62.86, high of $65.15, low of $62.56, down 3.81%, with a trading volume of 40.35 million lots [6] - SC: Opened at 464 yuan/barrel, closed at 449.5 yuan/barrel, high of 464.1 yuan/barrel, low of 446.9 yuan/barrel, down 3.66%, with a trading volume of 9.40 million lots [6] - EIA raised the Q4 inventory build forecast from 2.58 million barrels per day to 2.79 million barrels per day. OPEC lowered the demand forecast for OPEC+ crude oil [6] - India is tendering for crude oil purchases in early 2026, retaining Russian oil but requiring the producers and terminals of the goods to be unsanctioned [6] - Lukoil's overseas assets are under US sanctions, and the West Qurna-2 oil field project is under force majeure and may exit operation later [6] Trading Recommendations - OPEC+ decided to temporarily halt production increases in Q1 2026, which is marginally bullish for supply, but the inventory build rate in Q1 2026 may reach 3 million barrels per day, and current policies are unlikely to reverse the oversupply [7] - The medium-term oil price still faces continuous oversupply pressure, and short positions are recommended [7] Group 3: Industry News - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, but changed the Q3 global oil market outlook from supply shortage to supply surplus [8] - EIA raised its oil price forecasts for this year and next. The expected Brent crude oil price in 2025 is $68.76 per barrel (previously $68.64 per barrel), and the expected WTI crude oil price in 2025 is $65.15 per barrel (previously $65.00 per barrel) [8] - The US Department of Energy awarded a contract to purchase about 1 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve [8] - Russia's seaborne oil product exports in October were basically the same as in September, at 7.804 million tons [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Data includes global high-frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [11][12][15][22] - Data sources include EIA, Bloomberg, and wind, as well as the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][14][17]

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly. OPEC+ has decided to temporarily halt production increases in Q1 2026, which is marginally positive for the supply side. However, the inventory build - up rate in Q1 2026 may reach 3 million barrels per day, and the current policy alone is difficult to reverse the oversupply. Mid - term oil prices still face continuous oversupply pressure, and short - selling is recommended in operations [7]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI crude oil opened at $59.94, closed at $60.99, with a high of $61.18, a low of $59.59, a daily increase of 1.60%, and a trading volume of 16.75 million lots. Brent crude oil opened at $63.94, closed at $65.09, with a high of $65.31, a low of $63.60, a daily increase of 1.61%, and a trading volume of 30.98 million lots. SC crude oil opened at 470.8 yuan/barrel, closed at 462.2 yuan/barrel, with a high of 470.4 yuan/barrel, a low of 461.7 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 1.52%, and a trading volume of 7.78 million lots. India has started tendering for crude oil purchases in early 2026, retaining Russian oil but requiring that the producers and terminals of the goods are not under sanctions. Lukoil's overseas assets are continuously affected by US sanctions, and the West Qurna - 2 oil field project has suffered force majeure and may withdraw from operation later [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the continuous oversupply pressure on mid - term oil prices, short - selling is considered [7]. 2. Industry News - Indian Oil Corporation's tenders for early 2026 include Russian ESPO Blend and Sokol crude oil, and it also welcomes quotes for low - sulfur crude from regions such as West Africa and the US. - Despite new sanctions, Russia's oil exports in November have remained stable. - Commerzbank expects Brent crude to trade at $60 per barrel and WTI at $57 per barrel in 2026. - The IEA believes that under the current policy scenario, oil demand will not peak before 2050 [8]. 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption. Data sources include Bloomberg, EIA, Wind, and the Research and Development Department of CCBI Futures [9][11][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", indicating that short - term oil prices will show an oscillating and weak performance [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market currently lacks effective drivers, and international oil prices are falling weakly. OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, geopolitical tensions ease, and the supply - demand situation remains bearish. Short - term oil prices will still show an oscillating and weak performance [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: Bearish. EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production in 2025. For example, EIA predicts that the global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 will be 10,585 million barrels per day, an increase of 267 million barrels per day compared to 2024 [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: Neutral. Different institutions have different forecasts for global crude oil demand in 2025. EIA raises the forecast, OPEC keeps it unchanged, and IEA slightly lowers the growth rate forecast [3] - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: Bearish. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and there were also changes in refined oil and gasoline inventories [3] - **Industrial Policy (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: Bearish. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, which may intensify concerns about market oversupply [3] - **Geopolitics (Short - Term)**: Neutral. There are some geopolitical events, but they have limited impact on the oil market for now [3] - **Macro - finance (Short - Term)**: Neutral. There are signs of economic weakness in the U.S., and the market has expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Short - term oil prices will show an oscillating and weak performance [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For both unilateral and arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [3] 3.2 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - **Main Oil Product Prices**: SC crude oil increased by 0.41% week - on - week, Brent crude oil decreased by 1.36%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.71%. There were also corresponding price changes in gasoline, diesel, and other oil products [5] - **Inventory and Other Data**: There were changes in the inventories of various oil products in the U.S., Europe, and Singapore, and the operating rates of refineries in different regions also changed [5] 3.3 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: International oil prices fell weakly this week. As of November 7, WTI crude oil futures fell by 1.04 dollars per barrel (-1.71%), Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.88 dollars per barrel (-1.36%), and SC crude oil futures rose by 1.90 yuan per barrel (+0.41%) [7] - **Monthly Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The near - month spread weakened, and the internal - external spread declined [10] - **Forward Curve**: The near - month spread declined [24] - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene all declined [32][43] 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In September 2025, global crude oil production increased. EIA, OPEC, and IEA all reported an increase in production compared to August [64] - **Non - OPEC Production**: The production of non - OPEC countries increased [66] - **U.S. Production**: As of the week ending October 31, U.S. domestic crude oil production increased to 13.651 million barrels per day. The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. increased to 548 as of the week ending November 8 [89] - **Inventory**: U.S. commercial inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels, and Cushing inventory increased by 30,000 barrels. Northwest European crude oil inventory rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventory declined [90][99] - **U.S. Demand**: Gasoline implied demand increased, and refinery operating rates decreased [117] - **China Demand**: The refinery capacity utilization rate increased slightly. For example, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Shandong local refineries increased by 0.15 percentage points compared to last week [126][134] - **China Refinery Profits**: The gross profit of major refineries declined, and the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel also declined [135] 3.5 Macro - finance - **U.S. Treasury Yield and Dollar Index**: The U.S. Treasury yield rebounded, and the dollar index oscillated [148] 3.6 CFTC Positioning - The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [157]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Interest rates and exchange rates: The Fed will stop balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. There is a possibility of dollar liquidity drying up and risks in dollar - denominated asset prices. The initial conclusion of Sino - US trade negotiations has short - term positive impacts on domestic risk appetite, increasing the demand for RMB financial asset allocation [83]. - Commodities: Short - term bearish on commodities due to trade war impacts, but considering cost improvements, China's petrochemical industry chain has cost - competitive advantages [83]. - Equities: Bullish on domestic consumption recovery (towards cost - effectiveness) and self - controllable industrial chains [83]. - Steady growth in offshore oil and gas exploration: The offshore oilfield service industry is expected to maintain stable capital expenditure, with continuous efforts in increasing oil and gas reserves and production in China. Bullish on listed oilfield service companies with low valuations, large overseas market potential, and internationally advanced technologies, such as CNOOC Engineering, COSL, and Bohai Machinery [83]. - Cost advantages of refining and petrochemical integration: Bullish on companies with strong hydrocracking capabilities and integrated refining - PX - PTA industrial chains, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Tongkun Group [83]. - Cost - comparative advantages: The negative impact of ethane imports is expected to be repaired, benefiting previously oversold domestic stocks, such as Satellite Chemical and Wanhua Chemical, as well as natural - gas - related stocks, such as ENN Energy and Jiufeng Energy [83]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Outlook - Oil price judgment: In October 2025, Brent crude oil maintained wide - range fluctuations with a lower central price, closing at around $65.07 per barrel at the end of the month. OPEC+ countries that previously implemented voluntary production cuts agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November and December respectively. The market bets that the Fed may cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points in December 2025. With the easing of the Israel - Palestine conflict and the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, the short - term impact of geopolitical factors is weakening. The oil demand is weak, and the main support for oil prices lies in the uncertainty of Sino - US trade. It is expected to fluctuate between $50 - 70 per barrel in Q4 2025. The risk of downward oil price fluctuations has increased in the short term [3]. - Forecasts from different institutions: EIA predicts that the average annual price of Brent crude oil will be $69 per barrel in 2025 and $52 per barrel in 2026; IFA, OPEC, OIES, Rystad Energy also have their own forecasts for global oil supply, demand, and price in 2025 - 2026 [5]. 3.2 Global Oil Supply and Demand - Global oil supply: OPEC's eight countries agreed to increase the total production quota by 137,000 barrels per day in December and decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026 due to seasonal factors [3]. - Global economic (oil demand): In October, the processing volume of US refineries decreased month - on - month and was lower than the same period last year, and the commercial crude oil inventory decreased month - on - month, about 5.91% lower than the five - year average. China's crude oil consumption increased year - on - year, and imports improved. In September 2025, the crude oil processing of China's above - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 3.8% year - on - year [3]. 3.3 Economic Cycle and Inflation - Economic cycle: As of October 31, 2025, the yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond was about 4.11%. The Fed will stop balance - sheet reduction on December 1st, and the market expects another interest - rate cut in December [3]. - Inflation pressure: In August, the US PPI (all commodities) increased by 2.7% year - on - year, PPI (final demand) increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and decreased by 0.5 percentage points month - on - month. The PCE price index increased by 2.74% year - on - year, with a previous value of 2.60% [3]. 3.4 Geopolitical and New Discoveries - Geopolitical factors: The geopolitical situations between Russia and Ukraine, and between Russia and Europe continue to deteriorate; there is still uncertainty in Sino - US trade conflicts; the US foreign policy is fickle [3]. - New discoveries: Uganda plans to start oil production in July 2026; Brazil's IBAMA allows exploration drilling in the FZA - M - 59 block in the Amazon Estuary Basin [3]. 3.5 Inventory and Downstream Profits - Global inventory: As of the week of October 24, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory was 416 million barrels, 9.54 million barrels less than the same period last year, and about 5.91% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline and distillate inventories also decreased compared to the same period last year [3]. - Downstream profits: The spread between RBOB gasoline futures and WTI crude oil futures in the US has significantly improved in the past two months, rising above the 2022 - 2024 average of $37.4 per barrel and higher than the 20 - year historical average [3]. 3.6 Manufacturing and Related Energy - Manufacturing PMI: In October 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7, maintaining the contraction trend of the previous month [3]. - Related energy: The spot price of Henry Hub natural gas is expected to rise from an average of $3 per million British thermal units in September to $4.10 per million British thermal units in Q1 2026, mainly reflecting the growth of US production [3]. 3.7 Petrochemical Industry Chain - Naphtha cracking ethylene spread: In October, the spread was $134.2 per ton, down $11 per ton month - on - month [56]. - Polyester filament industry: In October, after the holiday, manufacturers quickly accumulated inventory. Later, with the increase in demand for winter fabrics, the polyester filament market improved, and the inventory decreased significantly. The production capacity of polyester filament was adjusted to 42.375 million tons per year, and the operating rate in October was about 91% [66]. - PTA market: In October 2025, the PTA market was under pressure, and the processing fee remained low. In September, China's apparent PTA consumption was about 5.6779 million tons, and the production was about 6.0205 million tons [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Short - term positive factors for crude oil have been realized, and international oil prices are oscillating downward. The long - term supply - demand pattern of crude oil is expected to be loose. The investment view is that the oil price will oscillate [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production in 2025. OPEC+ plans a small production increase in December, which may exacerbate concerns about market oversupply [3]. - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil demand in 2025, with EIA and OPEC showing an increase and IEA slightly reducing the growth rate [3]. - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending October 24, while some refined product inventories also changed [3]. - **Industrial Policy (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC+ plans to increase production slightly in December, and the International Energy Agency believes that without major geopolitical tensions, oil and gas prices will decline [3]. - **Geopolitical (Short - Term)**: The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and the UK imposed sanctions on Russian oil. However, the impact on the market is considered neutral [3]. - **Macro - finance (Short - Term)**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and plans to end quantitative tightening in December. Sino - US leaders reached some consensus on trade tariff policies [3]. - **Investment View**: Due to OPEC+ continuing to increase production, demand entering the off - season, and the cooling of geopolitical tensions, the supply - demand situation is bearish, and the short - term oil price will oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3]. Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: After short - term positive factors were traded, international oil prices oscillated downward. As of October 24, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures prices all declined [6]. - **Month - to - Month Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The near - month spread strengthened, and the internal - external spread rebounded and widened [9]. - **Forward Curve**: The near - month spread declined [21]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel all declined [24][32]. Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: Global crude oil production increased in September 2025. Non - OPEC countries' production also increased, and US weekly crude oil production reached 13.644 million barrels per day [42][54][66]. - **Inventory**: US commercial inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [77][87]. - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand increased, and refinery operating rates decreased. In China, refinery capacity utilization increased slightly, and refinery profits showed different trends [104][113][122]. - **Macro - finance**: US Treasury yields rebounded, and the US dollar index oscillated [135]. - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [144].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the market is affected by factors such as the rebound of crude oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations, while facing challenges like weak demand and new production capacity in the fourth quarter. For PP, similar factors are at play, with downstream peak - season demand providing some support [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the cost of polyolefins. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting on October 30, the US cancelled the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspended the 301 investigation measures in the maritime and logistics sectors for one year, while China adjusted counter - measures accordingly. In late October, the sanctions on Russian oil by the US and Europe were upgraded, leading to a rebound in oil prices. The peak - season demand for agricultural films continues, with high - level operations, and the restocking of other films is gradually ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6970 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 71, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 466,000 tons (-99,000), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, influenced by the Sino - US meeting in Busan, the upgrade of sanctions on Russian oil, the rebound of crude oil prices, the continued peak - season demand for agricultural films, and the neutral industrial inventory [4] - **Leveraging Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations [5] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and a large number of new production capacity launches in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, along with domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The long - term "increasing supply and decreasing demand" pattern in crude oil persists, with limited cost support for polyolefins. After the Sino - US meeting, relevant policies were adjusted, and the sanctions on Russian oil led to a rebound in oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 40, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 595,000 tons (-43,000), which is neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, affected by the Sino - US meeting, the upgrade of sanctions on Russian oil, the rebound of crude oil prices, the downstream peak - season demand support, and the relatively high - level neutral industrial inventory [6] - **Leveraging Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and a large number of new production capacity launches in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, along with domestic macro - policies [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 6970 (-20), the price of the 01 contract is 6899 (-69), the basis is 71, the import price in US dollars is 813 (0), the import - converted price is 7107 (12), and the import price difference is - 137 (-32). The number of warehouse receipts is 12,706 (-39) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6630 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6590 (-61), the basis is 40, the import price in US dollars is 790 (0), the import - converted price is 6910 (11), and the import price difference is - 280 (-11). The number of warehouse receipts is 14,569 (0) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and consumption of polyethylene have shown different growth trends. The production capacity has increased year by year, with a capacity growth rate of 20.5% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has gradually decreased, from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and consumption of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity has been increasing, with a capacity growth rate of 11.0% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the oil price will show a volatile and slightly stronger performance in the short - term, rated as "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Sanctions have raised concerns about supply, causing international oil prices to rebound strongly. OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, and the geopolitical situation cools down. Supply and demand maintain a bearish performance. However, the easing of the US attitude towards Chinese tariffs and the disturbances of European and American sanctions on supply concerns lead to a short - term volatile and slightly stronger performance of oil prices [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - long - term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production in 2025. OPEC+ plans to increase production moderately, and the overall supply situation is bearish [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - long - term)**: Different institutions have different predictions on demand, with EIA increasing the forecast, OPEC remaining unchanged, and IEA slightly reducing the growth rate forecast. Overall, it is rated as neutral [3] - **Inventory (Short - term)**: US commercial crude oil and refined product inventories have decreased, which is bullish for the market [3] - **Industrial Policy (Medium - to - long - term)**: OPEC+ continues to increase production moderately, and the IEA believes that the market may shift from tight balance to slight oversupply, which is bearish [3] - **Geopolitical (Short - term)**: Sanctions on Russia by the EU, the UK, and the US may lead to a tightening of Russian oil supply and push up oil prices, which is bullish [3] - **Macro - finance (Short - term)**: The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and China and the US will hold new economic and trade consultations, which is bullish [3] - **Investment View**: Oil prices will show a volatile and slightly stronger performance in the short - term [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Sanctions have raised supply concerns, and international oil prices have rebounded strongly. As of October 24, WTI crude oil rose 7.32% week - on - week, Brent crude oil rose 5.84% week - on - week, and SC crude oil rose 7.47% week - on - week [6] - **Month - to - month Spread and Internal - External Spread**: Near - month spreads have strengthened, and internal - external spreads have rebounded and expanded [9] - **Forward Curve**: Near - month spreads have strengthened [21] - **Crack Spread**: Gasoline and diesel crack spreads have declined [24] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: Global crude oil production increased in September 2025. The US weekly crude oil production was 1362.9 million barrels per day, and the number of active drilling rigs increased [55][79] - **Inventory**: US commercial inventories decreased, Cushing inventories decreased, Northwest European crude oil inventories increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased [80][90] - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand increased, and refinery operating rates rose. In China, refinery capacity utilization decreased slightly [101][110] - **Refinery Profit**: The gross profit of Chinese main - refineries declined, and gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined [119] - **Macro - finance**: US Treasury yields declined slightly, and the US dollar index oscillated [131] - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [140]