1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on crude oil is bullish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The market currently lacks a clear driving force, and international oil prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Multiple factors such as supply, demand, inventory, industrial policies, geopolitics, and macro - finance influence the oil market, with the overall investment view being bullish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil production. Overall, there is an upward trend in production, with a bearish impact on the market [3]. - **Demand (Medium - Long Term)**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for global crude oil demand, with a neutral impact on the market [3]. - **Inventory (Short Term)**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and refined oil inventories showed mixed trends, having a bullish impact on the market [3]. - **Industrial Policy (Medium - Long Term)**: OPEC+ plans to increase production, and India's procurement of Russian oil has decreased, with a bearish impact on the market [3]. - **Geopolitical (Short Term)**: Tensions between the US and India, and the situation in Iran have increased market concerns about supply, having a bullish impact on the market [3]. - **Macro - Finance (Short Term)**: EU - US trade policies and court rulings on US tariffs have a positive impact on the market [3]. - **Investment View**: The overall view is bullish, suggesting a long - only strategy for single - sided trading and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [3]. 3.2 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - **Prices**: SC crude oil decreased by 1.70%, WTI crude oil increased by 0.38%, and Brent crude oil increased by 0.30%. Other refined oil products also showed different price changes [5]. - **Inventory**: US, European, and Singapore oil product inventories, as well as Chinese oil product inventories, showed different trends [5]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of futures warehouse receipts for various oil products increased to varying degrees [5]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: Month - to - month spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads declined [5]. - **Refinery Operating Rates**: Refinery operating rates in different regions showed different trends [5]. - **Crude Oil Production**: US crude oil production decreased slightly [5]. 3.3 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: International oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. As of August 29, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil had different price changes [7]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads and Internal - External Spreads**: Month - to - month spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads declined [10]. - **Forward Curve**: The near - month curve declined and weakened [24]. - **Crack Spreads**: Gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined, while jet fuel crack spreads remained stable [28][37]. 3.4 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production** - OPEC production increased in July, and non - OPEC countries' production also showed an upward trend [47][60]. - US weekly crude oil production was 13.439 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease [72]. - **Inventory** - US commercial inventories decreased, and Cushing inventories decreased [84]. - Northwest European crude oil inventories increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased [93]. - **Demand** - In the US, gasoline implied demand increased slightly, and refinery operating rates declined from a high level [110]. - In China, refinery capacity utilization increased slightly, and refinery profits showed different trends [120][129]. - **Macro - Finance**: The US dollar index fluctuated, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased [142]. - **CFTC Positions**: Speculative long positions in WTI crude oil increased [150].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report The short - term trend of crude oil is expected to be weak with oscillations, and attention should be paid to the persistence of geopolitical events. The supply side presents a mix of positive and negative factors, and the demand side is at the end of the peak season with refinery profits under pressure. The significant inventory build - up and the deepening of the contango structure intensify the pressure on near - term prices. The upside potential of oil prices is restricted by inventory pressure and marginal supply increase. If Russia's export plan is actually realized or the geopolitical premium fades, oil prices may continue the weak oscillatory trend, with the short - term support for WTI at $62 - 63 per barrel and resistance at $65 per barrel [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: As of August 26, the SC crude oil continuous contract price slightly declined to 496.1 yuan per barrel, up 0.65% from the previous day, but closed at 487 yuan per barrel at night, down 2.19% from the day session. WTI and Brent main contracts fell 2.21% to $63.31 and $66.69 per barrel respectively. The SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads strengthened to $2.58 and $5.96 per barrel respectively, and the Brent - WTI spread slightly narrowed to $3.38 per barrel. The SC far - month contango (spread between contract 1 and contract 3) widened to - 4.3 yuan per barrel, indicating increasing pressure on the spot side [2] - **持仓与成交**: The SC crude oil main contract fluctuated sharply, with prices rising first and then falling, and the night - session decline exceeded 2%. The geopolitical disturbances and Fed policy expectations drove capital fluctuations. The medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 954,000 barrels to 5.721 million barrels on August 26, and fuel oil warehouse receipts also increased by 26,600 tons, reflecting the surplus pressure in the physical market [3] 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **供给端**: Iraq's crude oil exports in July reached 104.7 million barrels (3.38 million barrels per day). Russia planned to increase its western port crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels per day in August, but 17% of its refining capacity (1.1 million barrels per day) was disrupted by Ukrainian drone attacks. Iran's exports declined in August due to US sanctions and logistics constraints, and Alberta in Canada sought investment in the Japanese refining industry [4] - **需求端**: The interruption of Russia's refining capacity and the seasonal peak in gasoline demand may suppress the actual increase in crude oil re - exports. Global refinery margins remained low, and attention should be paid to the trends of US strategic reserves and the end of the seasonal demand in the Northern Hemisphere [5] - **库存端**: US Cushing and commercial crude oil inventories continued to accumulate. The medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts increased significantly, and fuel oil warehouse receipts also rose, reflecting the surplus pressure in the spot market. The interruption of Russian refining may indirectly increase overseas crude oil inventory pressure [6] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **期货价格**: SC price was 496.1 yuan per barrel, WTI was $63.31 per barrel, and Brent was $66.69 per barrel. OPEC's basket price remained unchanged at $70.45 per barrel [9] - **现货价格**: Various crude oil spot prices showed different changes, with Oman up 0.64%, Shengli up 0.61%, etc. [9] - **价差**: The SC - Brent spread widened to $2.58 per barrel, the SC - WTI spread to $5.96 per barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread slightly narrowed to $3.38 per barrel [9] - **其他资产**: The US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and RMB exchange rate also had corresponding changes [9] - **库存**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.41%, Cushing inventory increased by 1.82%, and US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.06% [9] - **开工**: The US refinery weekly operating rate was 96.6%, up 0.21% [9] 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **期货价格**: FU was 2,880 yuan per ton, down 0.93%; LU was 3,529 yuan per ton, up 0.09%; NYMEX fuel oil was 228.59 cents per gallon, down 2.71% [10] - **现货价格**: Different fuel oil spot prices had various changes, such as IF0380 in Singapore up 2.71% [10] - **纸货价**: High - sulfur 180 and 380 in Singapore (near - month) showed slight declines [10] - **价差**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread was not available, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread widened to 649 yuan per ton [10] - **Platts**: Platts (380CST) and Platts (180CST) prices increased [10] - **库存**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 6.53% [10] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - Iraq's oil exports in July reached 104.7 million barrels. Russia planned to increase its western port crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels per day in August, but there were uncertainties due to drone attacks and maintenance. Iran's exports declined in August, and Canada's Alberta province considered investing in the Japanese refining industry [11][12] 3.3.2 Demand Ukrainian attacks disrupted at least 17% of Russia's refining capacity, and there was a shortage of gasoline in some regions due to seasonal peak demand [13] 3.3.3 Inventory Low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures receipts remained unchanged, medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 954,000 barrels, and fuel oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 26,600 tons [14] 3.3.4 Market Information As of 2:30 closing, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.21%, the Shanghai silver main contract fell 0.30%, and the SC crude oil main contract fell 2.19%. Trump's dismissal of the Fed governor increased concerns about the Fed's independence and enhanced the expectation of interest - rate cuts [14][15] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., to visually display the industry data [16][20][22]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the outlook of the crude oil market in August 2025, suggesting a long - term bearish view on oil prices due to increasing supply and gradually loosening supply - demand dynamics [7][8] Group 2: Core Views - Fundamentally, supply - demand is gradually becoming looser, with supply expected to continuously increase, and further loosening is foreseeable after the end of the demand peak season. Non - fundamentally, the Russia - Ukraine peace process regarding potential sanctions is the biggest short - term disturbance, and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was dovish in the short - term and hawkish in the long - term. It's recommended to short at high prices [8] - The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral with the latest signal being negative, and the forward - looking indicator is also neutral with the latest signal being negative [11] Group 3: Review and Summary 7 - month Crude Oil Outlook Report Review - The July view was that from a long - term perspective, oil prices were still bearish as the consumption peak season would gradually end. In the short - term, there were many supply - side disturbances. In early August, oil prices oscillated downward due to cracking decline, tariff policies, and optimism about the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. However, strong EIA data and a change in market sentiment about the peace talks led to a rebound in the second half of the month [7] 8 - month Crude Oil Outlook Report - Fundamentally, supply - demand is gradually loosening, and terminal demand shows some resilience. Supply is expected to increase, and further loosening is expected after the demand peak season. Non - fundamentally, the Russia - Ukraine peace process and Powell's speech are key factors. The conclusion is that from the month - spread scale, the shift to a looser supply - demand situation is becoming a reality, and it's advisable to short at high prices [8] Group 4: Crude Oil Market Analysis Crude Oil Fundamental Indicators - The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral, with the latest signal being negative, touching 4 days out of 5 trading days from 8/7 to 8/13. The forward - looking indicator is also neutral, with the latest signal being negative from 7/31 to 8/1. The comprehensive indicator describes the current situation, and the forward - looking indicator focuses on future trends [11] Global Near - month Spread - Global near - month spreads generally declined in August, indicating a slowdown in spot supply - demand. Some markets' month - spreads are flattening, and the Middle East market's spreads are relatively strong, which is related to China's imports [14] Crack Spreads - Global crack spreads were generally stable in August, and strengthened to varying degrees in the second half of the month. Although downstream demand is okay, the supply increase from both OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ has weakened the near - end spreads [16][17] Global Spot Crack Spreads (Detailed Version) - Global diesel crack spreads strengthened after a period of decline. As the gasoline consumption peak season ends and the diesel demand season approaches, diesel crack spreads will support the downstream of crude oil [19] EIA Weekly Report - As of August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6014,000 barrels, exceeding expectations. The decrease was due to strong demand from overseas exports and high refinery operating rates. The diesel market's structural issues may strengthen the distillate crack spreads and refinery demand. Overall, the report implies demand resilience, which can slightly correct the market's pessimistic expectations in the short - term [23] Major Energy Agencies' August Reports - IEA and EIA significantly raised supply expectations for the second consecutive month, while OPEC maintained its non - OPEC+ supply expectations. All three agencies' reports suggest that the oil market is moving towards a record surplus [24] Key Changes in Major Energy Agencies' Monthly Reports - IEA and EIA continuously raised supply expectations, and as the traditional consumption peak season ends, the supply - demand surplus will become more significant. OPEC's adjustment of its 2026 forecast is to justify future production increases [25] Russia - Ukraine Peace Process - The main differences between Russia and Ukraine are in territory and security issues. The peace process is a short - term disturbance to the oil market, and after the initial optimism, it may be bullish for oil prices but won't change the long - term bearish trend [26] Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole - Market generally interprets Powell's speech as dovish, but it is dovish in the short - term and hawkish in the long - term. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September is high, but it depends on data. The Fed's preventive rate cuts are generally bearish for crude oil [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the fundamentals remain unchanged, demand is at the end of the off - season, and there is no upward driving force. With short - term large - scale fluctuations being unlikely, it is advisable to focus on range trading [9] - For lithium carbonate, the market is close to the peak season, with demand providing support at the bottom and limited decline. However, it is easily affected by industry news, so cautious operation is recommended [11] - For crude oil, although the price has rebounded, the subsequent consumption peak season is ending, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. It is recommended to sell on rallies [12] - For asphalt, with both supply and demand being weak and the cost - side support strengthening, the asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term [14] - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit on the 09 - 01 reverse spread [15][16] - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term [17] - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate downward due to its own fundamental pressure [19] - For coking coal, the market sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals have no significant changes, with the price oscillating at a high level [20] - For urea, it is in a weak consolidation stage. It is advisable to short on rebounds in the short term, and there is support at the bottom [22] Summaries by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 26, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Peanut, log, and 20 - gauge rubber rose slightly. Alumina and coking coal dropped by over 3%, while industrial silicon, container shipping to Europe, coke, and polysilicon dropped by over 2%. Glass, soda ash, and styrene dropped nearly 2%. Among stock index futures, IF dropped 0.22%, IH dropped 0.40%, IC rose 0.17%, and IM dropped 0.10%. Among treasury bond futures, TS rose 0.01%, TF rose 0.04%, T rose 0.06%, and TL rose 0.47% [6] Capital Flow - As of 15:18 on August 26, in terms of capital inflow in domestic futures main contracts, alumina 2601 had an inflow of 373 million, Shanghai copper 2510 had an inflow of 332 million, and 30 - year treasury bond 2512 had an inflow of 196 million. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 4.638 billion, CSI 1000 2509 had an outflow of 4.034 billion, and CSI 500 2509 had an outflow of 3.377 billion [7] Analysis of Specific Varieties Copper - Supply: Codelco adjusted its production target downward. The port inventory of refined copper ore has decreased, and the TC/RC fees are rising. The sulfuric acid price is high, supporting smelter profits. The production of refined copper is expected to remain stable in the short term, but there may be production cuts in the later third quarter [9] - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm, with new orders increasing but market trading volume decreasing. The real estate sector is a drag, but the power grid and new energy bring demand resilience [9] - Inventory: The inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating weak short - term demand [9] Lithium Carbonate - Price: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,700 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [10] - Supply: The production from August to September is expected to decline by 15% year - on - year. Yichun Yinli has resumed production, but CATL has not [11] - Demand: After the price correction, downstream purchasing sentiment has been stimulated, and there is support at the bottom [11] Crude Oil - Inventory: EIA data shows that the inventory of crude oil and gasoline has decreased more than expected [12] - Production: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [12] - Price: Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil for Asia in September [12] Asphalt - Supply: The asphalt production rate has decreased, and the planned production in August is 2.413 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% from the previous month [14] - Demand: Affected by factors such as funds, rainfall, and high temperatures, the demand is weak [14] PP - Supply: The new capacity of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie PP is planned to be put into production in August, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased slightly [15] - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, but there may be an improvement during the peak season [15] Plastic - Supply: The new capacity of Jilin Petrochemical's HDPE was put into operation at the end of July, and the plastic production rate has increased [17] - Demand: The agricultural film is gradually emerging from the off - season, but the raw material replenishment is not strong [17] PVC - Supply: The PVC production rate has decreased, and new capacities are being put into production [18][19] - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, and the export outlook is not optimistic [18][19] Coking Coal - Supply: The import volume in July increased significantly, and the domestic production has rebounded [20] - Demand: The downstream coke production enthusiasm has improved, but the steel mill profits have weakened [20] Urea - Supply: The daily production is around 190,000 tons, and there are maintenance plans this week, with production expected to decrease [21] - Demand: The industrial demand has some resilience, but is affected by environmental protection restrictions. The inventory is at a high level [21][22]

Group 1 - The petrochemical sector is experiencing an upward trend, with companies like Compton, Tongkun Co., and Xin Fengming leading the gains [1] - Everbright Securities highlights that despite geopolitical uncertainties, the medium to long-term oil supply and demand dynamics remain favorable, maintaining a positive outlook on "three major oil companies" and the oil service sector [1] - The recovery of the macro economy is boosting chemical demand, and long-term capacity elimination in chemical products is beneficial for leading enterprises, with a positive outlook on large refining, coal chemical, and ethylene profitability [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities notes the emergence of "anti-involution" policies in the petrochemical industry, recommending a focus on industry leaders with strong performance stability and consistent high dividends [1] - Oil prices are expected to have a floor, leading to high earnings certainty for oil companies, combined with high dividend characteristics, which may enhance valuations; attention is advised on companies with sustained production growth and low cost [1] - Domestic policies encourage oil and gas reserve increases and production, suggesting a focus on companies in the growth phase of production [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overnight, US EIA crude oil and gasoline inventories both decreased more than expected, which boosted short - term crude oil demand and led to a stable recovery in prices. Geopolitically, according to Russian sources, India has not largely abandoned Russian oil, and the Russia - Ukraine war negotiations are ongoing with no significant progress. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with prices in the range of 483 - 493, and long - term investors are advised to hold long positions [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2510, the fundamentals are neutral as Russia expects to continue supplying oil to India despite US warnings, US inventories show a mixed picture, and Fed officials are concerned about inflation. The basis is bullish with spot prices at par with futures. Inventory data is bullish as US API and EIA crude inventories decreased more than expected. The disk is bearish with the 20 - day moving average downward and prices below it. The main positions are bearish as both WTI and Brent crude main positions' long positions decreased. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate in the 483 - 493 range, and long - term investors should hold long positions [3]. 2. Recent News - At the July Fed monetary policy meeting, most officials emphasized that inflation risks outweighed concerns about the labor market. Two high - level officials opposed maintaining interest rates and hoped to cut rates due to concerns about the labor market. However, subsequent data on core consumer inflation and producer prices provided evidence for those opposing rapid rate cuts. Also, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the EU plans to prepare a new round of sanctions against Russia in September. There are discussions about a possible meeting between Putin and Zelensky, but Russia has not confirmed Putin's participation [5]. 3. Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: A potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict; continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, and Oman crude increased by 1.60%, 1.52%, and 0.94% respectively, while SC crude decreased by 0.64% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various types of crude oil such as UK Brent, WTI, Oman, etc., all increased, with Oman crude rising by 1.12% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: US API crude inventory as of August 15 decreased by 241.7 million barrels, and EIA inventory decreased by 601.4 million barrels, both more than expected. Cushing area inventory increased by 41.9 million barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 476.7 million barrels [3]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude**: As of August 12, the net long position decreased by 25,087 [15]. - **Brent Crude**: As of August 12, the net long position decreased by 34,430 [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the oil price is influenced by the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with a significant drop in WTI prices observed recently, indicating potential volatility in the market [2][3] - WTI prices fell to a low of $62.78 on August 8, but only dropped to $62.92 in the following seven trading days, suggesting that the bears are struggling to push prices below the $60 mark [2] - On the supply side, there is little support for rising oil prices, as Russia's oil production increased by 98,000 barrels per day in July, reaching 9.12 million barrels per day, exceeding OPEC's quota [2] Group 2 - The demand side is also facing challenges, as global economic conditions will determine oil demand, with the U.S. being the largest consumer [3] - The policies implemented during Trump's administration have negatively impacted oil demand, leading to a significant drop in oil prices from over $70 to around $50 [3] - With bearish factors on both supply and demand sides, the potential for a bullish rally in oil prices is limited, relying on the weakening of bearish positions [3] Group 3 - Technically, WTI prices are near a critical support level since June 11, indicating a possibility of a rebound [3] - The upcoming API data release is crucial; positive data could trigger a rebound, while negative data may lead to continued bearish trends [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oil prices are oscillating. The meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump in August 2025 may discuss a long - term peace plan to end the Ukraine war. OPEC+ decided to increase crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, ending the first - stage复产 work one year ahead of schedule. Geopolitical factors and supply - side changes may lead to a long - term downward trend in crude oil prices. For fuel oil, due to weak power demand in the Middle East and increased production, and with OPEC's continued production increase weakening crude oil sentiment, fuel oil is expected to remain weak. The recommended operation strategy for both crude oil and fuel oil is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News - Russian President Putin and US President Trump will meet in Alaska on August 15, 2025, to discuss a long - term peace plan to end the Ukraine war. Trump plans to promote a "Putin - Zelensky - Trump" tripartite meeting, but Ukraine opposes excluding European countries. Russia's core demands include Ukraine's recognition of the sovereignty of Russian - occupied areas and abandonment of joining NATO. The US tries to fulfill the "100 - day cease - fire" commitment through a cease - fire agreement [3]. - OPEC+ 8 - country meeting decided to increase crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, ending the first - stage复产 work one year ahead of schedule. The next meeting will be held on September 7 to discuss future production policy changes [3]. 3.2 Futures Market Data 3.2.1 Futures Closing Prices - **Domestic Market**: SC crude oil closed at 495.2 yuan/barrel, up 5.8 yuan (+1.19%); FU high - sulfur fuel oil at 2770 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (+0.36%); LU low - sulfur fuel oil at 3502 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan (+1.13%) [3]. - **Foreign Market**: WTI crude oil at 64 dollars/barrel, unchanged; Brent crude oil at 66.71 dollars/barrel, unchanged; Nymex gasoline at 2.0775 dollars/gallon, unchanged; ICE diesel at 669 dollars/ton, unchanged; Nymex natural gas at 2.984 dollars/mmBtu, unchanged [3]. 3.2.2 Spread Data - **Crude Oil Spreads**: SC - WTI spread increased by 0.80 yuan/barrel (+17.62%); SC - Brent spread increased by 0.80 yuan/barrel (+43.73%); Brent - WTI spread remained unchanged at 2.71 dollars/barrel [3]. - **Fuel Oil Spreads**: FU - SC spread decreased by 4 yuan/ton (+6.58%); LU - SC spread increased by 1 yuan/ton (+0.46%); LU - FU spread increased by 29 yuan/ton (+4.13%) [3][4]. 3.3 Spot Price Data - **Crude Oil**: Oman crude oil decreased by 0.62 dollars/barrel (-0.89%) to 68.76 dollars/barrel; Russian ESPO decreased by 0.46 dollars/barrel (-0.73%) to 62.47 dollars/barrel; Brent Dtd increased by 0.18 dollars/barrel (+0.26%) to 68.15 dollars/barrel [4]. - **Fuel Oil**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 9 dollars/ton (-2.23%) to 394 dollars/ton; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 3 dollars/ton (-0.61%) to 486.5 dollars/ton [4]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **US EIA Data**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3029 thousand barrels (-0.71%) to 423,662 thousand barrels; gasoline inventory decreased by 1323 thousand barrels (-0.58%) to 227,082 thousand barrels; distillate oil inventory decreased by 565 thousand barrels (-0.50%) to 112,971 thousand barrels; US production decreased by 30 thousand barrels/day (-0.23%) to 13,284 thousand barrels/day; refined oil inventory decreased by 141 thousand barrels (-0.32%) to 44,681 thousand barrels [4]. - **Singapore ESG Data**: Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 314 thousand barrels (+1.34%) to 23,699 thousand barrels [4]. - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: SC crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,767,000; FU fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 92,710; LU fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 21,050 [4]. 3.5 Macro and Shipping Data - **Macro Data**: The US dollar index was at 98.267, up 0.2343 (+0.24%); the US 10 - year Treasury yield remained unchanged at 4.27%; the RMB/US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.2545 [4]. - **Shipping Data**: The Baltic BDI index was at 2038, down 13 (-0.63%); the crude oil freight rate BDTI index was at 1013, up 2 (+0.20%); the refined oil freight rate BCTI index was at 656, down 15 (-2.24%) [4].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff truce between the US and China has been extended by 90 days, and OPEC+ crude oil production decreased in July. Although inflation has risen, investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The oil price is expected to fluctuate before the US - Russia summit on Friday, with a short - term trading range of 490 - 500, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3]. - Short - term geopolitical conflicts have decreased, while the risk of trade tariff issues has increased. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The tariff truce extension, OPEC+ production cut, and expected Fed rate cut are neutral factors. The spot price is at a premium to the futures, API and EIA inventories decreased, but the 20 - day moving average is downward and the price is below it, and WTI and Brent crude oil main positions are long - increasing [3]. - **Market Data**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil and Oman crude oil showed different changes, with Brent up 0.04 (0.06%), WTI up 0.08 (0.13%), SC down 3.90 (- 0.79%), and Oman down 0.53 (- 0.77%) [7]. 3.2 Recent News - **Trade Policy**: The US has extended the tariff exemption period with China again. Without the extension, the US would have raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, and China would have retaliated with 125% tariffs. After previous negotiations, the US reduced tariffs to 30% and China to 10% [5]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Trump will meet with Putin on Friday to assess the possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. European countries are worried that the US may pressure Ukraine to accept an unfavorable peace agreement [5]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period has been extended again [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: There is hope for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory Data**: API inventory decreased by 423.3 million barrels in the week ending August 1, and EIA inventory decreased by 302.9 million barrels in the same period. Cushing area inventory increased by 45.3 million barrels, and Shanghai crude oil futures inventory decreased by 48.2 million barrels as of August 11 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of July 29, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the number of long positions increased [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 供给端利空因素密集影响，国际油价弱势下行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-08-11 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 资料来源：Wind、钢联、国贸期货研究院 主要周度数据变动回顾 | | | | | | 原油主要周度数据汇总 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主要数据 | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨跌（幅） | | 主要数据 | | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨跌（幅） | | 主要油品价格 | SC原油（元/桶) | 489 8 . | 527 9 . | -7 . | 22% | | 原油 | 944182 | 945933 | -0 19% . | | | ...