Group 1 - OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have decided to maintain their production plan established in November 2025 and continue to suspend production increases until March 2026 [1] - Current regional risk premium related to the Iran issue is estimated at $8-10 per barrel, with the market still facing an oversupply situation [1] - The performance of the China Oil and Gas Index (399439) shows mixed results among its constituent stocks, with Jerry Holdings leading at a 1.94% increase [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Oil and Gas Index (399439) include China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, and Sinopec, collectively accounting for 66.76% of the index [2] - The Penghua Oil ETF (159697) closely tracks the China Oil and Gas Index and has seen a net inflow of 86 million shares, marking 17 consecutive days of net inflow [1][3]

消息面上，昨夜，美油主力合约收涨3.64%，报65.51美元/桶；布油主力合约涨3.43%，报69.68美元/桶。市场对美国可能对伊朗发起攻击的担忧加剧，地缘 政治风险升温推升原油供应中断预期，支撑布油价格上涨。 分析人士指出，地缘政治紧张与宏观情绪升温，正推动原油、黄金、白银等大宗商品走强，也意外点燃了国内相关主题LOF基金的交易热度。然而，火爆的 二级市场交易价格已大幅脱离基金净值，形成巨大溢价"泡沫"。不少石油类基金LOF今日停牌1小时，同时也开启了限购措施。 在此背景下，油气ETF汇添富（159309）或更具性价比，凭借ETF的交易优势，跟踪中证油气资源指数的油气ETF汇添富（159309）不仅聚焦国内油气产业 链优质企业，全面把握油气机遇，其溢价水平还相对较低，能更真实地反映价值，其次产品的流动性充沛，交易便捷！ 1月30日，A股市场震荡走弱，资源行业跌幅居前，油气ETF汇添富（159309）冲高后回落，开盘一度涨超2%，当前跌超2%，盘中振幅超4%！资金持续涌 入油气板块，油气ETF汇添富（159309）强势吸金超7800万元，加上今日已经连续14日强势吸金超4.7亿元！ 油气ETF汇添富（159 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. is conducting air force readiness exercises in the Middle East, leading to a 3.0% increase in WTI crude oil prices to $62.46 per barrel and Brent crude oil prices to $66.72 per barrel [1] - Geopolitical tensions in regions like Venezuela and Iran are raising concerns about supply risks, with the U.S. Central Command announcing military exercises amid increasing military pressure on Iran [1] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar is contributing to rising commodity prices, with the dollar index dropping to 95.51, the lowest level since February 2022, and a cumulative decline of over 2.2% for the month [2] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2026 to 930,000 barrels per day, up from a previous estimate of 860,000 barrels per day, driven by improved global economic prospects and lower oil prices [2] - Deutsche Bank analysts have adjusted their 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast to $61.50 per barrel, anticipating a significant reduction in the oversupply of oil in the second half of 2026 [3] - Huatai Securities has raised its forecast for the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 to $65 per barrel, citing geopolitical premiums and expected demand recovery [3] Group 3 - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) is the largest offshore oil and gas producer in China, focusing on exploration and production with strong cost and return profiles [4] - PetroChina Company Limited (00857) is the largest oil and gas producer and seller in China, with an integrated upstream and downstream business model covering the entire industry chain [4] - Sinopec Limited (00386) is a top global refining company with a strong sales network and capabilities in refining and chemical product production [4]

请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 27 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-27 哈萨克斯坦原油供应即将回归，地缘和 预期促使能化延续震荡 原油市场延续震荡整理格局，多重因素作用于油价之上。原油实际供 需而言，彭博报道哈萨克斯坦的原油出口终端已经完成修复，田吉兹巨型 油田的生产也即将重启，这将有助于缓解欧洲市场的偏紧格局。1月20日 当周，强冬季风暴登陆美国大西洋沿岸，带来强降雪和冻雨天气，2月3日 左右美国气温又将明显回升。美国总统特朗普向中东地区派遣海军兵力 后，当地地缘紧张局势持续升级，伊朗日产原油超过300万桶，是具有地 缘意义的产油国，局势的不确定性对油价形成支撑。（以上新闻和数据均 来自彭博终端） 板块逻辑： 化工延续震荡整理态势，供需面的因素退居其次，预期的力量依旧较 强。液体化工库存周度全线增加，纯苯华东港口库存环比增2.69%，苯乙 烯华东港口库存环比增7.59%，乙二醇华东港口库存环比增7.8%，化工实 体需求即将逐步进入消费淡季，产业将逐步累库。化工整体处于震荡格 局，芳烃生产已经出现利润，但当前也看不到供给大幅增加打压价格的情 况；聚烯烃期价反弹，油制烯烃生产盈亏格 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 中东地缘局势升温，国际油价延续上涨势头 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-26 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:中东地缘局势升温，国际油价延续上涨势头 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2026年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,765万桶/日，较2025年上升139万桶/ | | | | 日。(2)OPEC:2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2856.4万桶/日，较2025年11月份上升10.5万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1426.7万桶/日， | | | | 较2025年11月份下降34.3万桶/日。（3）IEA：2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2882 ...

Group 1 - The core view is that 2025 was a year of significant decline for crude oil prices, contrasting with the strong performance of precious metals like gold and silver, with Brent crude oil prices dropping approximately 20% [2] - The oil market faced multiple bearish factors, including reduced demand due to U.S. fiscal cuts and trade tariffs, and increased supply from OPEC and U.S. producers [2][3] - The oil price dynamics in 2026 are expected to be influenced primarily by supply and demand interactions, with a potential stabilization of prices as bearish factors diminish [3][6] Group 2 - Supply-side pressures are expected to ease in 2026, as the growth of non-OPEC production, particularly from the U.S., is anticipated to slow down due to rising costs and reduced capital expenditure [6][9] - The U.S. active rig count is declining, indicating a weakening growth momentum in oil production, with EIA predicting a slowdown in U.S. crude oil production growth in 2026 [9][12] - Non-OPEC countries like Brazil and Guyana are also expected to see a slowdown in production growth, with high-cost projects becoming less economically viable in a low-price environment [12][17] Group 3 - OPEC+ is likely to regain pricing power in 2026, as their spare capacity has significantly reduced, and they have a strong incentive to maintain stable production levels to support prices [17][20] - The fiscal breakeven price for core OPEC members is relatively high, which increases their desire to stabilize oil prices amidst low price environments [20][23] - OPEC+ has already taken steps to pause production increases in early 2026, aiming to consolidate market balance and prevent further price declines [23][26] Group 4 - Demand-side factors are showing signs of improvement, with reduced tariff impacts and potential fiscal expansion in major economies expected to boost oil demand [34][36] - The anticipated implementation of fiscal and monetary policies in the U.S. and Europe could stimulate economic recovery, thereby increasing oil consumption [34][41] - Emerging market economies are also expected to contribute positively to global oil demand, providing a solid support base against fluctuations in developed economies [36][41] Group 5 - Overall, the probability of a significant decline in oil prices in 2026 is reduced, with expectations of Brent crude prices fluctuating between $60 and $70 per barrel [41][43] - Geopolitical risks remain a concern, as conflicts in key oil-producing regions could lead to supply disruptions, potentially pushing prices above the upper range [43]

沥青周度报告 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 05 后市研判 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2026-1-23 报告PA摘RT要 01 （1）IEA月报将2026年全球石油供应增长预期从240万桶/日上调至250万桶/日。 重点数据 （1）截止1月21日，国内沥青样本企业开工率26.8%，较上一统计周期下降0.4个百分点。 （2）截止1月23日，国内沥青周度产量47.6万吨，环比上周减少1.2万吨。 主要观点 在基本面与成本端的共同作用下，本周沥青盘面整体呈现震荡偏强格局。当前沥青基本面变化有限，但原料供应 偏紧及后续稀释沥青进口受限的预期改善供应端前景。尽管市场已对稀释沥青进口收紧有所定价，但其实际进口仍存 在较大不确定性。随着美国进一步介入委内瑞拉原油领域，当前委油主要流向欧美市场，即便后续国内地炼恢复进口， 此前的高贴水格局也可能难以维持，稀释沥青的成本优势或将削弱，从而推升行业整体成本，抑制地炼开工积极性。 与此同时，油价偏强运行从成本端提供支撑。当前中东地缘风险虽短暂缓和但并未消除，美国正加速在该区域集结军 事力 ...

石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数从市场中选取涉及石油、天然气开采及 服务等相关业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映油气产业链上下游企业的整体表现。该指数成分 股具有较强的周期性特征，侧重于能源行业的整体配置。 光大证券指出，地缘政治不确定性为油价提供景气基础。长期来看，国际局势持续动荡，地缘政治的不 确定性有望为油价景气奠定基础。原油需求预期有所改善，IEA预计2026年全球原油需求增长86万桶/ 日，其中化工原料需求将主导增长，增量占比有望从2025年的40%上升至60%。供给端，由于OPEC+暂 停增产以及俄罗斯、委内瑞拉原油受制裁加剧，IEA预计2026年全球原油供给增长240万桶/日。 OPEC+在25年大幅扩增后，于26Q1暂缓增产，体现其平衡油价的意愿，本次暂停增产有望改善市场对 原油供给端的担忧，改善原油供需过剩。宏观经济恢复提振化工需求，长期来看化工品产能出清利好龙 头企业。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that domestic refined oil retail prices are expected to increase for the first time in 2026 due to rising international oil prices influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and South America [1] - East China Securities forecasts that global oil supply and demand will recover in 2026, with Brent crude oil prices expected to fluctuate between $55 and $75 per barrel [1] - As of January 20, 2026, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) rose by 0.42%, with significant increases in constituent stocks such as Thai Holdings (up 9.37%) and Blue Sky Gas (up 4.21%) [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) as of December 31, 2025, include major companies like China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil, collectively accounting for 67.11% of the index [2] - The Penghua Oil ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index and has seen a net inflow of 140 million units over the past eight days, with the latest price at 1.25 yuan [1][3]