Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - frequency data shows insufficient support during the peak season, and US oil demand may peak at the end of August. On the supply side, the lagged OPEC+ production increase is gradually being released, and the connection between production and the off - peak demand season may still impact the market. In the short term, after the US - Russia talks are concluded, there is a lack of positive drivers for oil prices, so one can try short - selling with a light position. In the medium to long term, continue to pay attention to opportunities for short - selling at high prices during the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons [6]. Breakdown by Directory 1. International Crude Oil Analysis 1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - From August 11th to 15th, international oil prices fluctuated at low levels, waiting for the results of the US - Russia talks. As of August 15th, WTI settled at $63.31/barrel (-2.17%), Brent at $66.21/barrel (-1.56%), and INE SC at 500.62 yuan/barrel (-3.45%) [10]. - The report also provides detailed weekly price trends, cross - market arbitrage, cross - period arbitrage, cross - commodity arbitrage, and financial attribute data of various crude oils [12]. 1.2 Financial Aspects - The US July CPI was released, with inflation generally in line with expectations. The market unanimously expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, and the US stock market continued to rise. As of August 15th, the S&P 500 index reached 6449.8, continuing its rebound since mid - April, and the VIX volatility was 15.09, still at a relatively low level [14]. 1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and US Dollar Index - The crude oil ETF volatility declined this week, and the US dollar index also declined. As of August 15th, the crude oil volatility ETF was 37.22, and the US dollar index was 97.8467. Crude oil volatility rebounded due to the uncertainty of the US - Russia situation, while the US dollar index continued to decline due to reignited market expectations of interest rate cuts [16]. 1.4 Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions - As of August 12th, the net long positions of WTI managed funds decreased by 32,500 contracts to 48,900 contracts compared to the previous month, a weekly decline of 39.9%. Speculative net long positions increased by 7,400 contracts to 67,900 contracts, a weekly increase of 12.2%. As the peak season gradually ends and the risk of sanctions eases, the market's bullish bets on oil price increases have further weakened [19]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 OPEC Production - In July, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 262,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day compared to the previous month. Most countries have started to increase production, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE leading the pace. However, the production of eight OPEC+ countries in June was still 84,000 barrels per day lower than planned, mainly due to some countries implementing their compensation production - cut plans [25]. - According to the IEA's statistical caliber, the production of nine OPEC member countries in July was 22.88 million barrels per day, a decrease of 320,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month. The overall over - production of the nine countries decreased compared to the previous month [29]. - In July, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 170,000 barrels per day to 9.526 million barrels per day, while Iran's production decreased by 12,000 barrels per day to 3.245 million barrels per day. Geopolitical factors have begun to affect Iran's oil production [31]. 2.2 Russian Crude Oil Supply - According to OPEC's statistical caliber, Russia's crude oil production in July was 9.12 million barrels per day, an increase of 95,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month. According to the IEA's statistical caliber, it was 9.20 million barrels per day, an increase of 10,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month. Production is gradually recovering under the production - increase plan but is still at a very low level [37]. 2.3 US Crude Oil Production - As of the week of August 15th, the number of active US oil - drilling rigs was 412, an increase of 1 from the previous week and a decrease of 71 compared to the same period last year. The production in the Permian Basin may face limited growth [41]. - As of the week of August 8th, US crude oil production decreased marginally to 13.327 million barrels per day, an increase of 43,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week and a 0.2% increase year - on - year. The impact of low oil prices in the first half of the year on production is starting to show, but due to improved drilling efficiency, production will not decline sharply [43]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 US Oil Product Demand - According to EIA data as of the week of August 8th, the single - week and four - week average demand for refined oil products in the US both rebounded and are moving towards the second peak of the peak - season demand. The four - week average total demand for oil products last week was 21.159 million barrels per day, a 2.89% increase year - on - year [47]. - As of August 8th, the single - week demand for refined oil products in the US decreased, but the four - week average increased. The four - week average demand for gasoline increased by 128,000 barrels per day to 9.04 million barrels per day, a 1.52% year - on - year decrease; the average demand for distillates increased by 69,000 barrels per day to 3.592 million barrels per day, a 1.62% year - on - year decrease; the average consumption of kerosene increased by 50,000 barrels per day to 1.827 million barrels per day, a 4.22% year - on - year increase [52]. - As of August 15th, the gasoline crack spread in the US was $24.25/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $30.65/barrel. The crack spreads rebounded this week as the dominant factor shifted to the crude oil cost side, and refined oil products are still in the peak season [55]. 3.2 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of August 15th, the ICE diesel crack spread was $23.71/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $29.14/barrel. European diesel performed better than heating oil due to low inventory and peak - season inventory replenishment demand. However, the crack spreads have declined in the past two weeks as diesel inventories have increased [59]. 3.3 Chinese Oil Products and Refinery Situation - In July, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 3.998 million tons year - on - year to 63.06 million tons (+6.77%); imports increased by 4.864 million tons year - on - year to 47.204 million tons (+11.49%). The decline in imports in July was a seasonal fluctuation [62]. 3.4 Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth - Three major international institutions have different views on this year's demand growth rate. OPEC maintains last month's forecast, the IEA continues to lower its demand forecast, and the EIA raises its forecast for global oil demand growth. In July, the EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 890,000 barrels per day (increase), 680,000 barrels per day (decrease), and 1.3 million barrels per day (unchanged) respectively [66]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory Analysis 4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - US commercial crude oil inventories have risen back within the five - year range, and the previous support from low inventories for oil prices has started to weaken. As of August 8th, EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 303,600 barrels from the previous week to 426.7 million barrels, a 0.92% year - on - year decrease; SPR inventories increased by 226,000 barrels to 403.2 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 45,000 barrels to 23.051 million barrels [67]. - As of the week of August 8th, the US crude oil net imports increased by 699,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 3.343 million barrels per day. US refinery processing volume increased by 56,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 17.18 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate remained at 96.4% [70]. - The WTI monthly spread generally maintains a backwardation structure. As of August 15th, the WTI M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.82/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $1.8/barrel. With the peak of US refined oil demand approaching and OPEC's accelerated production increase in the near term, the monthly spread may continue to decline [73]. 4.2 Brent Monthly Spread - The Brent monthly spread still maintains a backwardation structure. As of August 15th, the Brent M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.55/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $1.25/barrel. It shows a positive - carry pattern but has weakened this week [76]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance 5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the August EIA forecast, this year's global oil supply is 105.36 million barrels per day, and demand is 103.72 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.64 million barrels, which is an increase compared to last month. Despite the EIA's upward adjustment of the demand forecast, the supply pressure is expected to be greater this year due to OPEC+ ending the voluntary production - cut plan ahead of schedule [79]. 5.2 Term Structure - The US fundamental data this week shows that the single - week peak - season demand has started to decline, and the term structure has continued to flatten compared to last week. Brent can support a stronger positive - carry structure due to the previous strong diesel demand and good crack profits. Currently, international oil products can maintain a positive - carry term structure, but it may change if OPEC continues to accelerate production increase in the near term as the peak - season demand weakens [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - EIA's August report further intensifies the supply surplus in each quarter of this year and next year. Despite the upward adjustment of demand growth expectations, the supply increase is more significant, leading to a strengthened supply surplus expectation. EIA predicts a sharp decline in Brent crude oil prices in the coming months [8]. - OPEC's August report expects an increase in global crude oil demand this year and next year. To achieve supply - demand balance, OPEC+ needs to increase crude oil supply. The report also adjusts the global economic growth forecast and analyzes regional refinery profit situations [50][52][63]. Summary by Directory EIA EIA Balance Sheet - EIA shows supply, consumption, balance, and balance changes from 2025Q1 to 2026Q2. The supply surplus is expected to be most severe in Q3 and Q4 of this year and Q1 and Q2 of next year. The surplus in these four quarters is 162, 210, 226, and 147 thousand barrels per day respectively [8]. - EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to drop from $71 per barrel in July to an average of $58 per barrel in Q4 and further to $50 per barrel in early 2026. The average price in 2026 is expected to be $51 per barrel [10]. - EIA expects an increase in global liquid fuel consumption this year and next year, with non - OECD Asia being the main driver of demand growth [14]. - EIA expects an increase in global supply this year and next year. Non - OPEC+ leads the supply increase this year, but its growth rate will slow down next year. The supply of the United States is expected to decline next year [16]. - EIA expects a decline in US retail gasoline and diesel prices next year. The distillate oil inventory is expected to remain low, and the distillate oil crack spread is expected to continue to rise [19]. EIA Balance Sheet Changes - EIA significantly raises the supply forecast for all quarters and the demand forecast for all quarters except 25Q1. The core driving logic is supply increase, and demand increase is a passive result of falling oil prices [24]. Crude Oil Total Inventory - EIA provides forecasts for US, OECD, and global total inventory consumption [26]. Non - OPEC and OPEC Crude Oil Supply - EIA presents forecasts for non - OPEC and OPEC crude oil total supply, including the supply of major countries and exempt countries within OPEC [28][31][34][37]. Global and Regional Crude Oil Demand - EIA shows forecasts for global, OECD, and non - OECD crude oil total demand, as well as the demand of major countries in these regions [40][42][45] OPEC World Oil Demand - OPEC's August report expects global crude oil demand to be 10,514 thousand barrels per day this year, with a year - on - year increase of 129 thousand barrels per day. Next year, the demand is expected to be 10,652 thousand barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of 138 thousand barrels per day. Non - OECD Asia remains the main driver of demand growth [50][52]. Non - OPEC Liquids Production - OPEC's August report expects non - OPEC+ crude oil supply to be 5,401 thousand barrels per day this year, with a year - on - year increase of 81 thousand barrels per day. Next year, it is expected to be 5,464 thousand barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of 63 thousand barrels per day [53][54]. OPEC+ Production and减产 - OPEC+ production in July was 4,194.0 thousand barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 33.5 thousand barrels per day. OPEC production increased by 26.3 thousand barrels per day, and OPEC allies' production increased by 7.2 thousand barrels per day. Except for Kazakhstan, other OPEC+ countries generally well - executed the production plan [55][56][58]. OPEC+ Balance Sheet - OPEC's August report expects global demand to increase by 130 thousand barrels per day this year and 140 thousand barrels per day next year. To achieve supply - demand balance, OPEC+ crude oil supply needs to increase by 40 thousand barrels per day this year and 60 thousand barrels per day next year [63]. OECD Inventory, Consumption Days, and Floating Storage - OPEC provides data on OECD inventory, consumption days, and floating storage, including land - based commercial inventory, strategic petroleum reserve, and floating storage volume, as well as consumption days in different regions [64].

来源：市场资讯 （来源：东海研究） 证券分析师： 张季恺，执业证书编号：S0630521110001 谢建斌，执业证书编号：S0630522020001 吴骏燕，执业证书编号：S0630517120001 邮箱：zjk@longone.com.cn // 正文 // CONTENTS 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 原油价格影响因素及预测 | 指标 | 10. 199 | 油价影响 | | --- | --- | --- | | 因分别配 | 2026年7月布伦特原加维持武船震荡,月底收于66.29美元/格左右。OPEC+此前实施自隐减产的八国将在8月期产64.8万桶天。美联储 2025年8月继续哲得韩息符合预期，非农数据大幅下修,市场卿注9月降625个基点。综合来看,伊以冲突趋缓,短期内地缘政治因素影 | | | | 耐边标减弱,原油价格已基本度过季节性低点,预计年内布伦特原部仍将在60-90美元/桶区间震荡运行。美联储降息在即,短期内油价波 | | | | 动风险加强。 | | | 全球石油供应 | OPEC+此前实施自愿减产的八国将 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical factors such as Russia - US negotiations have recently caused many disturbances, leading to a short - term decline in oil prices. However, the overall good performance of crude oil processing demand and the weak actual production increase of OPEC+ support oil prices. The supply side has uncertainties, and the demand side shows an overall upward trend with stable growth [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly View and Strategy - **Inventory**: Last week, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.3 million barrels to 227.1 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 565,000 barrels to 113 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory in Oklahoma increased by 453,000 barrels [4][20]. - **Supply**: US crude oil production remained at 13.3 million barrels per day. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, and 8 OPEC+ countries are expected to increase production by a cumulative 2.467 million barrels per day from April to September. Since 2022, OPEC+ has cut production by 5.85 million barrels per day, about 5.7% of global supply. The supply side has uncertainties [4][33]. - **Demand**: US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 213,000 barrels per day to 17.124 million barrels per day, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 1.5 percentage points to 96.9%. Gasoline demand decreased by 112,000 barrels per day but remained above 9 million barrels per day. In June, China's industrial crude oil processing increased year - on - year, and the demand side is expected to rise steadily [4]. - **View**: Geopolitical factors have led to a short - term decline in oil prices, but good processing demand and weak OPEC+ production increase support oil prices. The supply - side production increase progress needs to be observed, and the demand side is expected to be boosted [4]. - **Strategy**: Buy operations [4] 3.2. Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides detailed data on global crude oil production, consumption, inventory net withdrawals, and end - of - period inventories from 2024 to 2025, including breakdowns by OPEC, non - OPEC, OECD, and non - OECD regions [6]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: It shows the processing flow of crude oil from the atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit to various refined products such as ethylene, propylene, diesel, and gasoline [9] 3.3. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures - Spot Structure**: It presents data on domestic and foreign price differences, monthly price differences, INE crude oil futures - spot price differences, and BRENT crude oil term price differences [11][13][15] - **Freight Index and Port Freight Rates**: It shows the trends of the crude oil transportation index (BDTI), the refined oil transportation index (BCTI), and port freight rates [16] 3.4. Inventory - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: Last week, due to increased exports, US crude oil inventory decreased, and the net import volume also decreased [4][20]. - **China Crude Oil Inventory**: In June, the inventory increment declined because of the increase in domestic crude oil processing demand [25]. - **Crude Oil Warehouse Receipts**: The INE crude oil warehouse receipts have recently remained at a low level, indicating a low inventory level of deliverable oil depots [29] 3.5. Supply Side - **OPEC Production**: In June, OPEC+ daily crude oil production was 41.559 million barrels, an increase of 349,000 barrels from May but lower than the planned increase. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the 8 - country production increase plan from April to September is 2.467 million barrels per day [33]. - **US Production**: Last week, US crude oil production remained at 13.3 million barrels per day. The growth space of US shale oil production is limited, and the production may enter a bottleneck period [38]. - **Global Production**: The supply side has uncertainties, including the uncertain OPEC+ production increase process, the impact of sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan crude oil, and the limited growth of US shale oil production [42] 3.6. Demand Side - **China Demand**: In June, China's industrial crude oil processing increased year - on - year. With the boost of travel demand, China's crude oil demand is expected to recover. China's crude oil imports and exports data from January to July 2025 are also provided [49][54][57]. - **US Demand**: US refinery crude oil processing volume increased, the capacity utilization rate rose, and gasoline demand remained above 9 million barrels per day. The US is in the driving season, and demand is slightly better than last year [61][64]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is experiencing structural changes in global oil demand, with a decline in Chinese demand and emerging economies becoming the main driving force. Global oil demand growth is maintained at 700,000 to 800,000 barrels per day [1][2] - The U.S. shale oil production is significantly impacted by capital expenditure discipline, with production currently at approximately 13.5 million barrels per day, which may represent a peak [1][4] - OPEC+ is actively managing supply to stabilize the market, with Saudi Arabia playing a crucial role in production cuts and plans to increase production in mid-2024 [1][10][12] Core Insights and Arguments - Short-term risks in the oil market include seasonal demand decline, gradual OPEC production increases, and completed stockpiling in China and India, potentially leading to oil prices dropping below $70 [1][14] - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is viewed as a strong dividend stock, with stable performance expected, projecting profits of 140 to 150 billion yuan for 2025 [1][15] - The petrochemical sector faces supply and raw material pressures, with overcapacity in refining and declining demand for refined products. The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to adjust policy directions [1][18] Investment Opportunities - Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical are highlighted as having the greatest refining flexibility, with low valuations and stable profits. If policies are implemented, they could achieve upward earnings elasticity [1][19] - Investors should focus on large energy companies with stable production capabilities and those that can adapt to market fluctuations, such as ExxonMobil and Chevron [1][6] Additional Important Insights - The basic logic of oil pricing is based on supply-demand balance, with global macroeconomic factors being dominant. China's oil demand is expected to decline after peaking in 2024, while emerging economies like India and Southeast Asia are expected to drive growth [2] - The impact of reduced capital expenditure on shale oil production typically has a lag of 6 to 9 months, with expected declines in production by the end of 2025 [4][7] - OPEC's proactive supply management has been effective, with Saudi Arabia leading efforts to ensure compliance among member countries [10][11] - The petrochemical industry is under pressure from overcapacity and declining demand, with potential policy changes aimed at eliminating excess refining capacity and controlling ethylene production [18][20] Future Outlook - The future of the petrochemical industry will be influenced by national policies aimed at eliminating excess capacity and controlling new capacity. The approval of ethylene and methanol projects has been tightened, with a potential turning point expected around 2027 [20][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil prices opened lower and rebounded, remaining in a low - level volatile state. Trump's remarks increased concerns about US sanctions on Russian oil. The IEA raised the global crude oil surplus forecast for 2025 but also mentioned a "near - term peak - season tightness." This week, the situation regarding sanctions and subsequent trade tariff issues is expected to become clearer, and the market will experience significant fluctuations. Short - term prices are expected to range between 507 - 513, and long - term investors are advised to add to their long positions on dips [3]. - The short - term market is driven by geopolitical conflicts, while in the long - term, it awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: US envoy Witkoff is expected to visit Russia on Wednesday. Trump set a Friday deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war, threatening new sanctions otherwise. Trump also plans to significantly increase tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase and resale of Russian oil. Venezuelan oil exports in July decreased by about 10% month - on - month due to partners awaiting US approval for business expansion [3]. - **Basis**: On August 4, the spot price of Oman crude was $71.20 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $70.51 per barrel, with a basis of 8.96 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price was at par with the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory for the week ending July 25 increased by 1.539 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.5 million barrels. EIA inventory for the same period increased by 7.698 million barrels, against the expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 690,000 barrels. As of August 4, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.249 million barrels [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of July 29, the main long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil increased [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump plans to raise tariffs on Indian goods due to India's large - scale purchase and resale of Russian oil. In 2023, India became the largest market for Russian crude oil, and last year, Russia supplied about 550 million barrels of crude oil to India, while the US only exported 52 million barrels [5]. - The EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months according to an agreement with the US [5]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and well - known bond fund manager Gundlach believes the Fed will cut rates twice this year [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - **Positive Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to rise [6]. - **Negative Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil decreased by - 1.31%, - 1.54%, - 2.14%, and - 3.46% respectively [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.59% to - 3.77% [9]. - **Inventory Trends**: API and EIA inventories showed different trends from May to July. API inventory increased by 1.539 million barrels in the week ending July 25, and EIA inventory increased by 7.698 million barrels during the same period [10][13]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position increased by 2,692 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position increased by 33,959 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy suggestion is to stay on the sidelines [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has shifted from a production - cut cycle to an increase cycle, with a cumulative production increase space of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August. However, the actual production increase is far from the target. It's recommended to focus on the actual production implementation of OPEC+ members [2][6][27] - There are concerns in the market that the US's secondary sanctions on Russia may disrupt Russian oil exports, but India and Brazil have refused to stop buying Russian oil, so the implementation of US sanctions may face challenges [2][7][27] - Overall, it is estimated that supply will exceed demand. The market will run weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual production execution of OPEC+ members [2][27] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices fluctuated. SC2509 opened at 513, reached a high of 535, a low of 501, and closed at 527, with a weekly increase of 15 or 2.92%. It showed short - term fluctuations [3] 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 3.2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Maintains Its Stance on Production Increase - In June, OPEC's total production increased by 220,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production increased by 173,000 barrels per day to 9.356 million barrels per day, and the UAE's production increased by 83,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day [5] - The OPEC+ JMMC meeting on July 28 did not propose production policy suggestions, pointed out that some countries did not comply with their quotas, and the next meeting will be held on October 1 [5] - Eight major oil - producing countries decided to increase daily production by 547,000 barrels in September, and will adjust the production increase rhythm flexibly according to market conditions [5] 3.2.2 Russia: Gradually Fulfilling Production Cuts, Monitor the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). Last month, Russia's daily crude oil loading was stable at 4.68 million barrels, and its daily refined oil exports decreased by 110,000 barrels to 2.55 million barrels [7] - IEA said that Russia's crude oil and refined oil exports in June were at an extremely low level, the lowest in the same period in five years. From 2024 to 2025, Russia's exports showed a downward trend, raising questions about its ability to maintain upstream production capacity [7] - Trump proposed to set a new deadline of 10 - 12 days for Russia. If there is no progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the US will impose tariffs and take other measures. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions on Russia, and the UK lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $47.60 per barrel from September 2. But India and Brazil refused to stop buying Russian oil, so the implementation of US secondary sanctions may face challenges [7] 3.2.3 US: Stable Production - The US's weekly crude oil production decreased by 41,000 barrels per day to 13.314 million barrels per day. As of July 25, the number of active oil - drilling rigs was 415, the lowest since September 2021, 7 less than the previous week and 67 less than the same period last year. The continuous decline in the number of oil rigs for three months has affected the growth of US crude oil production [8] - The US Energy Information Administration predicts that the US's daily crude oil production will drop to about 13.37 million barrels next year, from about 13.42 million barrels this year [8] 3.2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Growth - IEA's June monthly report: Global oil production capacity is expected to increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day. It is expected that global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025. The supply growth forecast for non - OPEC+ countries in 2025 has been lowered from 1.5 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, and it is expected to reach 920,000 barrels per day in 2026 [14] - IEA's July monthly report: This year's global oil supply is expected to increase by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day compared with the previous forecast [14] - OPEC stated that in 2025, the supply from countries outside OPEC+ will increase by about 800,000 barrels per day, lower than last month's forecast of 900,000 barrels per day [14] 3.2.5 Inventory: Decrease - As of April 2025, OECD's commercial crude oil and liquid inventories were 2.729 billion barrels, a decrease of 94.42 million barrels compared with the same period last year [15] - As of the week of July 25, 2025, according to API data, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.539 million barrels, and gasoline inventories decreased by 1.739 million barrels. According to EIA data, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 829.432 million barrels, an increase of 7.94 million barrels from the previous week; commercial crude oil inventories were 426.691 million barrels, an increase of 7.7 million barrels; and gasoline inventories were 228.405 million barrels, a decrease of 2.73 million barrels [15] 3.2.6 Consumption: Weak - The disappointing US non - farm payroll data has raised expectations of interest rate cuts, which may boost weak crude oil demand. In July, the US non - farm employment only increased by 73,000, far below market expectations, and historical data was significantly revised downward. On one hand, the weak labor market has increased concerns about slowing oil demand; on the other hand, market expectations of US interest rate cuts have risen, and there is a possibility that interest rate cuts will boost crude oil demand [20] - Both IEA and EIA have lowered their forecasts for new crude oil demand, and the predicted new demand is less than the new supply. In IEA's July monthly report, it mentioned that the consumption in emerging crude oil markets is weak, and the forecast for the increase in crude oil demand in 2025 is 700,000 barrels per day, a contraction of 400,000 barrels per day compared with the beginning of the year. EIA's July monthly report also shows a similar downward trend, with the forecast for demand increase in 2025 at 800,000 barrels per day, a decrease of 500,000 barrels per day compared with the beginning of the year [20] 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has shifted from a production - cut cycle to an increase cycle, with a cumulative production increase space of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August. However, the actual production increase is far from the target. It's recommended to focus on the actual production implementation of OPEC+ members [27] - There are concerns in the market that the US's secondary sanctions on Russia may disrupt Russian oil exports, but India and Brazil have refused to stop buying Russian oil, so the implementation of US sanctions may face challenges [27] - Overall, it is estimated that supply will exceed demand. The market will run weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual production execution of OPEC+ members [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The improvement of the macro - sentiment due to the US reaching tariff agreements with major economies and the rise in geopolitical risk premiums are the main drivers for the rebound of domestic and international oil prices this week. However, with OPEC+ oil - producing countries continuing to accelerate production increases in September, the supply is under negative pressure, and the supply - demand structure of crude oil has weakened. It is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [5][65]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Price Soars and Basis Discount Narrows Significantly - As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was reported at $71.26 per barrel, equivalent to RMB 509.5 per barrel, with a significant weekly increase of RMB 26.3 per barrel. The main contract 2509 of domestic crude oil futures closed at RMB 527.9 per barrel, rising significantly by RMB 15.0 per barrel week - on - week. The discount narrowed significantly, and the basis between the two was RMB 18.4 per barrel [9]. 3.1.2 Oil - Producing Countries Increase Production Again, and Crude Oil Declines Weakly - The US reaching tariff agreements with other countries improves the macro - factor, boosting the risk appetite of the global commodity market. The US increasing sanctions on Russian crude oil may lead to a decline in supply. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries maintain the production increase plan for September, the actual supply growth may be less than expected. Due to OPEC+ continuing to accelerate production increases in September, under the suppression of supply negative factors, last Friday, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a weak downward trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed down 2.95% to RMB 513.0 per barrel [5][15]. 3.2 Escalation of Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus and Faster Production Increase Rhythm 3.2.1 OPEC+ Accelerates Capacity Release, and the Expectation of Supply Surplus Increases - After a significant and unexpected production increase in May, OPEC+ oil - producing countries accelerated production increases for the second consecutive month, exceeding market expectations. In May and June, they each increased production by 411,000 barrels per day. In the past three months, OPEC+ has cumulatively increased production by 2.2 million barrels per day, completing nearly half of the 18 - month production cutback task. Saudi Arabia, Russia and other countries have reiterated their commitment to market stability and increased production. This decision may suppress oil prices in the short term but may intensify quota disputes among members and raise concerns about supply surplus in the long term. In June 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 27.235 million barrels per day, with a slight month - on - month increase of 219,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 700,000 barrels per day [22][23][24]. 3.2.2 Non - OPEC Oil - Producing Countries' Capacity Remains at a High Level - As the leader of non - OPEC oil - producing countries, the US has maintained a high level of crude oil production since 2024. As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 415, a slight weekly decrease of 7 and a decrease of 67 compared to the same period last year. The US daily crude oil production was 13.314 million barrels, a slight weekly increase of 41,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 14,000 barrels per day. The EIA predicts that the growth rate of US domestic crude oil production in 2025 will slow down further, with an expected increase of 160,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day this year and flat production in 2026 [37][38]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil Demand in the Northern Hemisphere is in the Seasonal Peak - The US, as the largest crude oil consumer, has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. July - August is the peak season for gasoline consumption. However, after the US announced a comprehensive tariff policy, many financial institutions have adjusted their crude oil demand growth forecasts downward. Energy institutions such as EIA, IEA, and OPEC have also lowered their global crude oil demand growth expectations for 2025. It is expected that the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2025 will further decline [41][42]. 3.2.4 US Crude Oil Inventories Decrease Significantly, and Refinery Utilization Rate Increases Slightly - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426.7 million barrels, a significant weekly increase of 7.698 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.358 million barrels compared to the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 22.553 million barrels, with a slight weekly increase of 690,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 402.7 million barrels, with a slight weekly increase of 238,000 barrels. The US refinery utilization rate was maintained at 95.4%, a slight weekly decrease of 0.1 percentage points, a slight monthly increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 5.3 percentage points [44]. 3.2.5 China's Crude Oil Imports Increase Slightly in June 2025 - In June 2025, China's crude oil production maintained a stable growth trend, with the output of industrial enterprises above the designated size reaching 18.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The crude oil processing volume turned from a decline to an increase, reaching 62.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In June, China's crude oil imports were 49.888 million tons, a slight year - on - year increase of 7.38%. Looking forward to 2025, China's crude oil processing and import consumption may be restricted by weak demand [48]. 3.3 Iran - Israel Ceasefire, and Crude Oil Premium Drops Significantly - Since the Iran - Israel conflict, domestic and international crude oil futures prices have risen significantly. After the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, the crude oil premium has rapidly shrunk. The conflict has exposed Iran's weaknesses in internal security, air defense systems, and the influence of the main - peace faction [59]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Decrease Significantly Week - on - Week - Since July 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak and volatile trend, and the market's bullish power has shrunk. As of July 22, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 153,331 contracts, a significant weekly decrease of 9,096 contracts and a significant decrease of 52,648 contracts compared to the June average, a decline of 25.56%. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 227,245 contracts, a significant weekly decrease of 11,576 contracts, and a significant increase of 40,622 contracts compared to the June average, an increase of 21.83% [61].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices are facing downward pressure due to OPEC+ decisions to increase production and concerns over global energy demand [1][2][5] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September [1] - The eight countries involved in this decision include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman [1] - OPEC+ has shifted from a reduction strategy to an increase strategy, with a cumulative increase of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August [1] Group 2: Oil Price Trends - On August 1, international oil prices saw a significant drop, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices falling nearly 3% [2] - Brent crude oil futures for October fell below $70 per barrel [2] - The decline in oil prices is linked to disappointing U.S. employment data and concerns over global energy demand due to U.S. tariff policies [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global crude oil supply is increasing, with EIA reporting a June production of 104.9 million barrels per day, up by 628,000 barrels from May [3] - Demand for crude oil is growing at a slower pace, with EIA reporting a June demand of 104.43 million barrels per day, an increase of 182,000 barrels from May [3] - OECD commercial crude oil and petroleum product inventories stood at 2.796 billion barrels at the end of June, a decrease of 420,000 barrels from May [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts predict a long-term oversupply in the oil market, with countries like India and Brazil continuing to purchase Russian oil despite U.S. pressure [5] - The end of the peak consumption season for refined products is expected to exert further pressure on crude oil prices [5] - Current oil prices are anticipated to have downward potential, with opportunities for short positions in the future [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market features "strong reality, weak expectation", with short - term support factors and long - term suppression logic coexisting. In the short term, factors such as the peak consumption season, improved macro - environment, and OPEC+ actual production increase lower than planned support oil prices. In the long term, OPEC+ is expected to fully release the 2.2 million barrels per day production increase by the end of the fourth quarter, while seasonal demand will weaken, leading to a long - term structural surplus. The proposed US sanctions on Russia may cause short - term supply concerns and oil price rebounds, but the actual supply reduction may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure of WTI crude oil prices at $70 - 72 per barrel, and consider short positions if sanctions are lower than market expectations [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, oil prices first fluctuated widely and then rose. The "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern of crude oil, the expected peak consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere, and the decline in EIA crude oil inventories supported oil prices. Although OPEC+ planned to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, the market had already priced it in, and the actual increase was much smaller. The threat of US sanctions on Russia also supported oil price rebounds. However, in the fourth quarter, the shift from peak to off - peak consumption and OPEC+ production increases may lead to supply surpluses and limit oil price increases [5]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Trade Agreements - The short - term trade tension has been alleviated as the US reached trade agreements with China, the EU, and Japan. However, the long - term impact on the global economy is still uncertain. The US also imposed new tariffs on South Korea, India, and Brazil [6]. 3.2.2 Fed's Interest Rate Decision - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. There were two dissenting votes advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell's speech was hawkish, and the probability of a September rate cut dropped from about 65% to below 50% [10]. 3.2.3 Geopolitical Tensions - Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine by August 8. The US also imposed large - scale sanctions on Iran. These events raised concerns about supply disruptions and supported oil prices [11]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 OPEC+ Production - OPEC+ increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. It is expected to continue increasing production in September to reach the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target. However, Kazakhstan's failure to cut production as promised may lead to concerns about an internal price war within OPEC+ [14][15]. 3.3.2 Forecasts from Different Institutions - In July, IEA raised the global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 16,000 barrels per day. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts [17]. 3.3.3 Supply from Different Regions - OPEC's crude oil production increased by 221,000 barrels per day in June, mainly due to Saudi Arabia's production increase. Non - OPEC production increased by 129,000 barrels per day, mainly from Kazakhstan and Russia. US crude oil production decreased by 120,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 25, and the number of oil rigs also decreased [19][21][24]. 3.3.4 Demand from Different Regions - China's apparent crude oil consumption increased by 3% in June. However, China's manufacturing PMI decreased in July. In the US, refinery utilization rates increased, but the manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, and the Chicago PMI continued to decline [32][38][39]. 3.3.5 Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventories increased by 7.74 million barrels in the week ending July 25. Although the seasonal peak may drive inventory reduction, the reduction space is limited [48].