GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：地缘风险或有反复， | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 暂时观望 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 观点综述 国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2026年1月18日 2 01 本周原油观点：地缘风险或有反复，暂 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2026, OPEC+ suspends crude oil production increase, and demand is in the peak season, so international oil prices are expected to strengthen. However, if production increase resumes, it will still suppress oil prices. The market is at an important node, and future oil price fluctuations are expected to widen [4][55][127] - In the polyester industry chain, demand will decline due to the Spring Festival in Q1 2026, and the operating rates of polyester and looms will first decrease and then increase. PTA and ethylene glycol have inventory accumulation pressure, and the inventory accumulation rate is mainly affected by the operating rate. The price decline in Q1 is considered a buying opportunity, and the weak ethylene glycol price in 2025 is also expected to strengthen [10][82][127] - Currently, the profits in the entire industry chain are mainly concentrated in the PX segment, and the profit situation of polyester products is generally poor. This situation is expected to continue in Q1 2026, and the closer to the downstream, the greater the pressure on profit decline during the demand decline [128] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In Q4 2025, the prices of PX and PTA first fell and then rose, and finally increased slightly for the whole year. Ethylene glycol prices showed a continuous downward trend, with a significant decline in December. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices first fell and then rose, but still declined for the whole year [16] - PX: In Q4 2025, the supply and demand situation was not good, but the price increased due to the tight supply and continuous inventory reduction of PTA. The operating rate was high, with little room for further improvement [17] - PTA: Since H2 2025, the operating rate has been lower than the previous year, especially in Q4. In November, many devices were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in production and inventory. The price increased significantly in December, and the futures price increased by about 4.6% for the whole year [20][21][22] - MEG: In 2025, new production capacity was put into operation, and the operating rate increased, resulting in a significant increase in supply. In Q4, the supply was loose, and the price continued to fall, with an annual decline of more than 20% [24][27] - Short - fiber: There was no new device put into operation in the past two years. In Q4, the operating rate was generally stable, and the output increased year - on - year. The domestic consumption demand was weak, and the price first fell and then rose, with an annual decline of 4.6% [29][30] - Bottle - chip: In 2025, the production capacity expansion slowed down, but there was still supply pressure. The operating rate continued to decline, but the cumulative output increased by 7% year - on - year. The export volume increased significantly, but the domestic demand growth was limited, and the price fell by 2.3% for the whole year [31][33][36] II. OPEC+ Suspends Crude Oil Production Increase in Q1, but the Expectation of Supply Glut Remains - Geopolitical conflicts occur frequently, but the expectation of interfering with crude oil production is not strong. In 2025, OPEC+ changed from production cut to production increase, and decided to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. However, there is still a possibility of resuming production increase in 2026, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in March [37] - The EIA continuously raised the global crude oil supply forecast in 2025, while the demand adjustment was relatively small. The global crude oil supply became looser, and the supply glut increased in 2025 and 2026 [37][38][40] - In Q1, the heating oil demand is strong, which supports the refinery operating rate. The international oil price is near the low point in recent years, and the current is an important node for oil price fluctuations, with expected wider future fluctuations [45] III. Spring Maintenance in Q1, the Operating Rate of Some Links Will Change Significantly - There is no new device production plan for PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol in Q1 2026. The PX operating rate is expected to decline significantly due to the spring maintenance, while the impact on the PTA operating rate is expected to be small [56] - Ethylene glycol has many new device production plans in 2026, but there is no plan in Q1. The production profit is poor, and the domestic output may decline [70][73][80] IV. Demand is Affected by Seasonal Factors, and the Polyester Operating Rate Will First Decrease and Then Increase - In Q1, the demand will fluctuate greatly and decline overall due to the Spring Festival. The polyester operating rate will first decrease and then increase, and the output is expected to decline significantly [82][85] - Affected by the decline in demand for polyester raw materials, the inventory will increase. PTA and ethylene glycol have inventory accumulation pressure, but the negative impact of ethylene glycol inventory accumulation on price in Q1 is expected to weaken [92][95] - The profits of polyester products are generally poor and difficult to improve in Q1. The profits of long - filament and short - fiber are under greater downward pressure, especially during the demand decline [96][98][100] - The long - filament inventory has pressure to increase rapidly in Q1, while the short - fiber inventory pressure is relatively small before the new device is put into operation [107][109] - The operating rate of looms will fluctuate greatly in Q1, and the average operating rate is expected to be higher than that in 2025. The output of yarn and grey cloth is generally low, and the inventory change is relatively small [110][112][113] V. Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Keeps Growing, and the Export Market is Expected to Recover - The growth rate of domestic textile and apparel demand is not high and will maintain a low - growth trend. The growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales is low, and the growth rate of textile and apparel retail sales fluctuates [115][118] - The global economic and trade relations have eased, which is beneficial to the recovery of textile and apparel exports. Although China's textile and apparel exports declined in 2025, they are expected to recover in 2026 [119][120][121] VI. Summary and Outlook - Summary: In Q4 2025, international oil prices continued to be weak, and the polyester industry chain (except ethylene glycol) first fell and then rebounded. The supply - demand contradictions in some links of the polyester industry chain were prominent, and the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol diverged significantly. The profits in the industry chain were concentrated in the PX segment [123][124][126] - Outlook: In Q1 2026, international oil prices are expected to strengthen, and the demand in the polyester industry chain will decline due to the Spring Festival. The price decline is considered a buying opportunity, and the ethylene glycol price is expected to strengthen. The current profit situation in the industry chain is expected to continue, and the closer to the downstream, the greater the profit decline pressure [127][128]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The impact of the Venezuelan situation on international oil prices is limited, and long - term oil prices are still anchored to a loose fundamental situation. Crude oil prices may remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term, with geopolitical situations being the main driver of price fluctuations. In the long run, if the US invests in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, it may increase oil supply and put downward pressure on oil prices [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On December 31, 2025, the SC main contract price was reported at 432.2 yuan per barrel, a slight decline of 0.89% from the previous day; the WTI main contract was at 57.41 US dollars per barrel, down 0.93%; the Brent main contract was at 60.91 US dollars per barrel, down 0.6%. In terms of spreads, the SC - Brent spread weakened to 0.93 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 16.22%; the SC - WTI spread remained stable at 4.43 US dollars per barrel; the Brent - WTI spread strengthened to 3.5 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 5.11%; the SC continuous - continuous 3 spread strengthened to - 3.1 yuan per barrel [1][5] - Industrial Chain Supply, Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: OPEC+ agreed in principle to continue to suspend increasing oil production in Q1 2026, strengthening the expectation of supply tightening. Due to the arrest of the Venezuelan president, Venezuelan oil exports were temporarily paralyzed and ports were damaged. However, its current production and export scale have a limited impact on international oil prices. As of the end of 2025, its daily crude oil production was about 1 million barrels, accounting for about 1% of the global total supply, and daily exports were about 700,000 barrels [2] - **Demand Side**: On January 2, China's "Deep - Sea No.1" gas field increased its production to 4.5 million tons of oil equivalent, indicating stable operation of refinery facilities and stable overall apparent demand. In Europe and the US, although the Christmas oil - using peak season temporarily boosted demand, the overall recovery rate slowed down and was lower than the same period last year, and refinery operations started to decline after the festival [2] - **Inventory Side**: Venezuelan inventories were full, leading to local production cut pressure. US Cushing and commercial crude oil inventories and OECD inventory data were not updated, but global inventories may tighten due to supply disruptions [2] - Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices may remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term, with geopolitical situations being the main driver of price fluctuations. Although the interruption of Venezuelan oil exports has a controllable impact on the global market, in the long run, if the US invests in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, it may increase oil supply and put downward pressure on oil prices [3][4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: SC, WTI, and Brent futures prices all declined on December 31, 2025, compared with the previous day, with declines of 0.89%, 0.93%, and 0.6% respectively. - **Spot Prices**: The OPEC basket price remained unchanged, while other spot prices showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling. - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread weakened, the SC - WTI spread remained stable, and the Brent - WTI spread and SC continuous - continuous 3 spread strengthened. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index slightly increased, the S&P 500 declined, and the DAX index remained unchanged. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 0.46%, Cushing inventories increased by 2.52%, and the US strategic reserve inventory increased slightly. - **Refinery Operations**: The US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume both increased slightly [5] - Fuel Oil - Futures prices of FU and LU declined on December 31, 2025, compared with the previous day, with declines of 1.05% and 1.41% respectively. Spot prices, paper - cargo prices, and other indicators also showed different degrees of change [6] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Supply - On January 4, 2026, it was reported that OPEC+ agreed in principle to continue to suspend increasing oil production in Q1 2026. The US government asked major US oil companies to invest in Venezuela to repair its oil infrastructure [7][8] - Demand - Venezuelan state - owned oil company executives stated that the US attack did not damage oil facilities, and production and refining operations were normal [9] - Inventory - Venezuelan state - owned oil company asked some joint - venture enterprises to cut crude oil production due to full inventories. Venezuelan oil exports were paralyzed [10] - Market Information - On January 3, 2026, US President Trump said that the US would restore normal oil supply and ensure the proper care of the Venezuelan people, while maintaining a full - scale embargo on Venezuelan oil [11] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI, Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spreads, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., to visually show the changes in the industrial chain data [12][14][16]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 地缘局势再度升温，风险溢价或驱动油价反弹 主要周度数据变动回顾 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-05 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:地缘局势再度升温，风险溢价或驱动油价反弹 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2025年和2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2025年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,616万桶/日，较2024年上升 299万桶/日。(2)OPEC:11月份OPEC国家原油产量为2848万桶/日，较10月份下降0.1万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1458.5万桶/日，较10月 | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | | | | | 份上升4.5万桶/日。（3）IEA：11月份OPEC国家原油产量为2899万桶/日， ...

Group 1 - The U.S. military conducted a large-scale military strike against Venezuela, capturing President Maduro and announcing plans for U.S. oil companies to invest billions in Venezuela's oil infrastructure [1] - Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves at approximately 303 billion barrels, accounting for 17% of global reserves, but its daily oil production is currently below 1 million barrels [2][3] - Venezuela's oil production has sharply declined since 2017 due to U.S. sanctions, dropping from over 2 million barrels per day to around 300,000 barrels per day by 2020 [2] Group 2 - As of November 2025, Venezuela's oil production was 934,000 barrels per day, a month-on-month decrease of 2.3%, with an average annual production of 916,000 barrels per day, reflecting an 8.57% year-on-year increase [2] - In November 2025, Venezuela's oil export volume was 653,000 barrels per day, a month-on-month decrease of 16.71%, with an average annual export volume of 728,000 barrels per day, showing a 10.7% year-on-year increase [3] - The current geopolitical instability between the U.S. and Venezuela is likely to support oil prices in the short term, but ongoing developments need to be monitored [3] Group 3 - Venezuela's oil is primarily heavy and extra-heavy crude, which requires special processing and diluents for transportation and refining, resulting in higher extraction and operational costs compared to conventional light crude [3] - Prior to 2019, Venezuela was a key source of heavy oil for the U.S., but due to sanctions, imports have fallen to less than 100,000 barrels per day in 2025, with Canada and Mexico now being the top suppliers [4] - In 2025, WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell approximately 20% from the beginning of the year, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and oversupply in the oil market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela, highlighting the potential for U.S. oil companies to invest billions in Venezuelan oil infrastructure, which could significantly impact global oil markets and prices [3]. Group 1: Military Actions and Economic Implications - The U.S. military conducted a large-scale operation against Venezuela, capturing President Maduro and announcing plans to "manage" the country, which includes significant investments in the oil sector [3]. - U.S. oil companies are expected to invest billions to repair oil infrastructure in Venezuela, which has the largest proven oil reserves globally, estimated at 303 billion barrels, accounting for 17% of the world's total [3][4]. Group 2: Current Oil Production and Trends - Venezuela's oil production has drastically declined from over 2 million barrels per day in 2017 to around 930,000 barrels per day in November 2025, reflecting a 2.3% month-on-month decrease [4]. - The average oil production for 2025 was reported at 916,000 barrels per day, showing an 8.57% year-on-year increase, while the average export volume was 728,000 barrels per day, up 10.7% year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Oil and gas stocks surged following the news, with companies like Quanzhou Oil and PetroChina seeing significant price increases [3]. - Despite the short-term support for oil prices due to geopolitical instability, analysts caution that the macro environment may not sustain long-term price increases, especially with OPEC+ discussions on restoring production levels [5]. - The article notes that the price of WTI and Brent crude oil has dropped approximately 20% over the year, from $72 and $75 per barrel to $56 and $60, respectively, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and oversupply [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the view on crude oil is to focus on short - term sentiment - driven positives and consider adding short positions on rallies. The market may open high and then decline, with short positions recommended to be held. In the first half of the year, Brent and WTI are under significant downward pressure, potentially testing $50 per barrel, while the decline of SC may be less than that of foreign benchmarks, testing 380 yuan per barrel. Although the decline in oil prices has accelerated under the influence of trade frictions, a long - term decline is unlikely to happen overnight. Attention should be paid to potential reversals in macro - expectations, which may lead to increased volatility in oil prices [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Global crude oil supply features "regional differentiation + geopolitical disturbances". The demand is dominated by the Asia - Pacific region, showing significant regional disparities. The overall view is that the market may open high and then decline, with short - term sentiment - related upside and long - term downward pressure on prices [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomics - The gold - to - oil ratio has strengthened again. Short - term inflation has declined, and attention should be paid to "re - inflation" trading in the medium to long term. The RMB exchange rate has strengthened again, and social financing has stabilized [18][20][21]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The production of some countries has changed, such as the increase in production in Guyana and Brazil, and the potential impact of sanctions on the supply of Venezuela and Iran. The export volume of OPEC + core members reached a peak in September and declined in the fourth quarter. US shale oil drilling and production have stabilized [8][9][23]. 3.4 Demand - The operating rates of refineries in the US and Europe have rebounded, and those of Chinese state - owned and private refineries have also increased. The global refining capacity has a net increase of 3.6 million barrels per day. The demand in China is shifting from fuel to chemical raw materials, and the demand in Europe is weak [10][63][65]. 3.5 Inventory - US commercial crude oil inventories have stabilized, while Cushing inventories remain significantly below the historical average. European diesel inventories have decreased, and gasoline inventories have increased. Global in - transit crude oil inventories have declined from a high level, and global crude oil floating storage is high [67][71][73]. 3.6 Price and Spread - The spot market was weak during the holiday season. The Dubai spot spread entered a contango for the first time in two years. North American basis has stabilized, the monthly spread has rebounded slightly, and the valuation of SC is at a medium - low level with a stable monthly spread [83][94][95].

Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. Department of Commerce has lowered the proposed tariff rates for 13 Italian pasta exporters, with Garofalo's rate reduced to 13.89%, La Molisana to 2.26%, and the remaining 11 companies to a uniform rate of 9.09% [3] - This tariff adjustment coincides with the U.S. decision to delay the increase of tariffs on certain imported furniture by one year, originally set to take effect on January 1, 2026, now postponed to January 1, 2027 [3] Group 2: Venezuelan Oil Production Decline - Venezuela's oil production in the Orinoco heavy oil belt has dropped approximately 25%, with daily output falling to 498,131 barrels as of December 29, 2025 [11] - The decline is attributed to insufficient storage capacity and slowed export rates, leading to the closure of oil wells in some fields [11] - The geopolitical tensions and U.S. sanctions have significantly impacted Venezuela's oil exports, resulting in a forced reduction of about 500,000 barrels per day [11] Group 3: Oil Market Outlook - The global oil market is facing challenges due to geopolitical conflicts and supply-demand imbalances, with WTI crude futures down about 20% and Brent crude down over 18% for the year [11] - Analysts suggest that the oil market remains weak, with potential oversupply pressures expected to increase in the first quarter of 2026, limiting the potential for price rebounds [13] - The ongoing U.S.-Venezuela conflict may lead to a structural improvement in the oil market if production cuts in Venezuela continue, with Brent crude potentially recovering to above $65 per barrel [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overnight Russia-Ukraine negotiations are still far from reaching an agreement, and there are reports of a Ukrainian attack on the Russian president's residence, making the hope of peace talks slim. US President Trump issued a new threat against Iran, and geopolitical concerns still provide support. The subsequent release of full-caliber inventory accumulation in the US EIA has a certain impact on prices. In the short term, oil prices will still fluctuate with geopolitical events, but the "anchor" determining the lower limit is always the oversupply. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate. SC2602 is expected to operate in the range of 430 - 440, and long - term investors should wait [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Russia accused Ukraine of attempting to attack President Putin's residence, but Kiev refuted it. Kazakhstan's oil production in December decreased by about 6% due to a decline in the output of the Tengiz oil field. Trump threatened to strike Iran again. The overall situation is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On December 29, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $61.72 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $60.78 per barrel. The basis was 13.87 yuan/barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending December 19 increased by 2.391 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 0.405 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.432 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.707 million barrels. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels as of December 29, which is bearish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is below the average, which is neutral [3]. - **Main Position**: As of December 16, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long positions, but the long positions decreased, which is bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate. SC2602 is expected to operate in the range of 430 - 440, and long - term investors should wait [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump expressed concerns about Iran's nuclear and missile programs and threatened to strike Iran again. He also said he would support Israel in striking Iran if it continued its missile program. He had previously launched strikes on Iran's key facilities in June [5]. - Russia accused Ukraine of attempting to attack President Putin's residence, but Kiev refuted it. The intense exchange between the two sides added new uncertainty to the prospects of peace in Ukraine [5]. - Trump said the US had "struck" an area in Venezuela used for loading drug - carrying ships, but details were unclear [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Bullish Factors**: No relevant content provided - **Likely Bearish Factors**: The situation in the Middle East eases [6] - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, wait for geopolitical bullish factors; in the medium - to - long term, there is a risk of oversupply [7]. - **Risk Points**: Disruption of OPEC+ internal unity and increased production; escalation of war risks; sanctions against Russia; tense situation in Venezuela; consistent expectations of oil oversupply among institutions; some progress in the peace agreement negotiations between the US and Russia [7] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased from $61.80 to $60.24, a decrease of 2.52%. The settlement price of WTI crude oil decreased from $58.35 to $56.74, a decrease of 2.76%. The settlement price of SC crude oil increased from 443.0 to 443.4, an increase of 0.09%. The settlement price of Oman crude oil decreased from $62.57 to $62.27, a decrease of 0.48% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.79%, WTI decreased by 0.05%, Oman crude oil increased by 0.71%, Shengli crude oil increased by 0.19%, and Dubai crude oil increased by 0.47% [10]. - **API Inventory**: As of December 19, the API inventory increased by 2.391 million barrels compared to the previous week [11]. - **EIA Inventory**: As of December 19, the EIA inventory increased by 0.405 million barrels compared to the previous week [14]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides data on the supply - demand gap, OPEC+ crude oil production, and Call on OPEC+ from 2023 to 2026 - Q4 [20]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of December 16, the net long position was 54,896, a decrease of 3,537 compared to the previous period [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of December 16, the net long position was 32,940, a decrease of 74,876 compared to the previous period [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ has suspended production increases. The long - term supply and demand of crude oil remain bearish. Short - term geopolitical situations are the main disturbances. Oil prices will still show an oscillating performance in the short term, but the long - term price center tends to decline [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA slightly raised its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC and IEA data on OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' oil production in November showed different trends. Overall, the supply factor is rated as neutral [3] - **Demand (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different adjustments to the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand growth rates in 2025 and 2026. The demand factor is rated as neutral [3] - **Inventory (Short Term)**: In the week ending December 12, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased, while Cushing crude oil inventory decreased. Gasoline and distillate inventories also increased. The inventory factor is rated as neutral [3] - **Oil - producing Countries' Policies (Medium - Long Term)**: At the December OPEC+ meeting, production was maintained unchanged until the end of 2026, and a new mechanism for evaluating production capacity was approved. The production of Saudi Arabia in November showed certain changes. This factor is rated as neutral [3] - **Geopolitics (Short Term)**: The Russia - Ukraine conflict is complex, and the US has imposed economic sanctions and military deployments on Venezuela. This factor is rated as bullish [3] - **Macro - finance (Short Term)**: The US GDP growth rate in the third quarter was high, but the fourth - quarter economic growth may face pressure. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January 2026 was 19.9%. This factor is rated as neutral [3] - **Investment and Trading Strategies**: The investment view is "oscillating". The trading strategies for both unilateral and arbitrage are to wait and see [3] Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Geopolitical risks have led to wide - range fluctuations in international oil prices. This week, oil prices rebounded and then fell. By December 26, the closing prices of WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures had increased to varying degrees [6] - **Monthly Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The near - month spread weakened, and the internal - external spread declined [9] - **Forward Curve**: Near - month pressure remains high [21] - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene all declined [26][37] Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In November 2025, global crude oil production increased. Different institutions had different data on the production of OPEC and Non - OPEC countries. US weekly crude oil production decreased slightly, and the number of active drilling rigs increased [49][61][84] - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while Cushing inventory increased. Northwest European crude oil inventory rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventory declined. In China, the inventory of various oil products showed certain changes [85][95][106] - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand increased significantly, and refinery operating rates remained high. In China, refinery capacity utilization increased slightly, and the refinery profit of major refineries decreased, while the gasoline and diesel crack spreads were stable [108][118][127] - **Macro - finance**: US Treasury yields rebounded, and the US dollar index weakened [139] - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [148]