5月13日，A股主要指数今日涨跌不一，截至收盘，沪指涨0.17%报3374点，深证成指跌0.13%，创业板指跌0.12%。沪深两市全天成交 额1.29万亿，较上个交易日缩量169亿。全市场超3200股下跌。 | © 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 3374.87 | +5.63 | +0.17% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 10288.08 | -13.08 | -0.13% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | 2062.26 | -2.45 | -0.12% | 盘面上，中美关税降幅超预期叠加欧美航线迎来集装箱发运旺季，港口航运板块爆发，国航远洋涨超23%；传头部光伏厂家减产挺 价，光伏设备板块走高，协鑫集成涨停；银行股走高，重庆银行涨超4%；基因测序板块走强，贝瑞基因等多股涨停；互联网电商、BC 电池、贵金属、服装家纺等板块上涨。 另外，军工板块回调，奥普光电跌停；卫星导航板块走低，莱赛激光跌超10%；小金属、6G概念、低空经济、飞行汽车等板块下跌。 具体来看： 消息面上， ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index (930986) decreased by 1.22% as of May 13, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [3] - Lakala (300773) led the gains with an increase of 4.01%, while Feitian Chengxin (300386) experienced the largest decline at 3.90% [3] - The Financial Technology ETF (516860) also fell by 1.29%, with the latest price at 1.22 yuan and a turnover rate of 5.18% during the trading session [3] Group 2 - The recent joint statement from a press conference on May 12 announced a suspension of 24% tariffs on Chinese goods for an initial 90 days, while retaining the option to impose an additional 10% tariff [3] - Shenwan Hongyuan noted that the reduction of tariffs by the U.S. directly benefits export chain enterprises, potentially leading to a short-term recovery in exports [4] - The Financial Technology ETF closely tracks the China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the financial technology sector [4] Group 3 - The Financial Technology ETF reached a new high in scale at 914 million yuan, with a significant increase of 42 million shares over the past week [4] - The ETF recorded a net inflow of 12.23 million yuan recently, with a total of 13.04 million yuan net inflow over the last five trading days [4] - Leveraged funds continue to invest in the Financial Technology ETF, with the latest margin buying amounting to 6.43 million yuan and a margin balance of 41.69 million yuan [5] Group 4 - As of May 12, 2025, the Financial Technology ETF has achieved a net value increase of 62.91% over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [5] - The ETF's highest single-month return since inception was 55.92%, with an average monthly return of 10.57% [5] - The ETF's management fee is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [5] Group 5 - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index accounted for 53.28% of the index [6] - The top stocks include Tonghuashun (300033), Dongfang Caifu (300059), and Runhe Software (300339), with respective weights of 9.50%, 9.01%, and 7.29% [6][8]

长期而言，申万宏源认为，出口链是结果，而处于长期景气趋势的国产AI、国防军工、机器人是原 因。因此，维持对科技景气方向的战略看好。预计短期A股震荡且中枢抬升，长期重启A股结构牛，看 好科技板块。 （文章来源：广州日报） 当地时间5月12日，美股三大指数均大幅收涨，纳指涨4.35%，标普500指数涨3.26%，道指涨2.81%。其 中，中国资产爆发引发关注，热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大幅收涨5.40%，创4月4日 以来新高。其中，佳裕达涨67.71%、世纪互联涨21.31%、盛大科技涨18.92%，万国数据、亿咖通科 技、BOSS直聘、乐信、涂鸦智能涨超10%。 消息面上，北京时间5月12日下午，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（以下简称"联合声明"）发布， 大幅降低双边关税水平，引发全球市场关注，各国股市普涨。 其中，A股5月12日高开高走，上证指数收涨0.82%报3369.24点，深证成指涨1.72%，创业板指涨 2.63%。个股涨多跌少，4112只个股收涨。 那么，接下来A股将怎么走？市场分析人士普遍认为，联合声明向市场释放积极信号，短期内有望提振 投资者风险偏好，利好中国权益资产。 "中美贸 ...

Group 1 - The original market expectation indicates that the execution of Trump's policies has significantly deviated from the Milan report's assumptions, suggesting a necessary adjustment in Trump's policies and the initiation of negotiations between China and the US [2] - Following the Geneva trade talks, the expectation is that the additional tariffs imposed after April 2 will be reduced to 10%, leading to a potential recovery in China's economic resilience in Q2 2025, with a possibility of improved profitability in H2 2025 if domestic stimulus policies remain strong [2][2] - The report highlights that the adjustment in tariffs directly benefits export chain enterprises, with a potential for a pulse-like recovery in the export chain, particularly for those with previously low expectations [2][2] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the long-term trends in domestic technology development and risk prevention should not be altered by the temporary easing of US-China tensions, indicating a strategic focus on sectors like AI, national defense, and robotics [2][2] - Asset prices are influenced by timely domestic policies that support market expectations, with A-shares currently oscillating within a high range since September 24, 2024, and a potential upward adjustment in the market's central tendency [2][2] - The report maintains a cautious outlook for Q2 2025, suggesting that while there are conditions for a more optimistic view in H2 2025 and 2026, ongoing concerns about disturbances remain, and the fundamental improvement in A-share performance is yet to materialize [2][2]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a slight pullback after a strong opening, with the Sci-Tech Chip Index rising by 0.38%, driven by significant gains in stocks like Yuanjie Technology, which increased by over 7% [1] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) also saw a rise of 0.38%, with a trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan and a turnover rate of nearly 3%, indicating active trading and a slight premium in the market [1][2] - There was a net inflow of over 310 million yuan into the Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) the previous day, reflecting strong investor interest in semiconductor-related stocks [2] Group 2 - The Financial Regulatory Administration announced eight new policies aimed at increasing market liquidity, including measures to support small and private enterprises, and enhance investment in technology companies [2] - According to Everbright Securities, the A-share market is expected to trend upwards due to ongoing policy support and the inflow of medium to long-term funds, with current valuations near the average since 2010 [3] - Guosheng Securities highlighted that the focus for May should be on sectors with independent industrial trends, such as domestic AI, smart vehicles, and robotics, while also considering policies related to domestic consumption and real estate [3]

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 05 07 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 A 股一季度报盈利特征&5 月市场观点 今日概览 重磅研报 【策略】A 股 25Q1 盈利与供需特征如何？——25Q1 财报分析（一）— —20250506 研究视点 【食品饮料】零售变革草根调研（二）四川零食有鸣批发超市：多品类 折扣先行者，千店规模优势深厚——20250506 【通信】润泽科技（300442.SZ）-改造机房适配新需求，AIDC 高增趋势 未改——20250506 【电新】同飞股份（300990.SZ）-25Q1 毛利率环比持续提升，期待公司 数据中心、半导体温控收入放量——20250506 作者 | 分析师 熊园 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680518050004 | | | | | 邮箱：xiongyuan@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 美容护理 | 15.6% | 12.4% | -4.2% | | 计算机 | 14.6% | -1 ...

Group 1: Tariff Impact Analysis - The report highlights that the actual impact of tariff increases will gradually become evident, with significant concerns regarding the overall tariff rate and its effects on exports and economic growth [1][9][14] - Four scenarios of tariff increases were analyzed, resulting in overall tariff rates of approximately 33.4%, 53.0%, 81.9%, and 105.6% respectively [1][14][18] - The estimated impact on China's overall exports under these scenarios is projected to be a decline of 8.7%, 11.7%, 12.7%, and 12.7%, with actual drag expected to be around 7%-10% when considering potential new transshipment trade and overseas factories [2][16][18] Group 2: Economic Growth Impact - The report estimates that the GDP drag from the four tariff scenarios will be approximately 1.2%, 1.6%, 1.7%, and 1.7%, with actual impacts potentially ranging from 1% to 1.4% when accounting for mitigating factors [2][16][18] - The analysis indicates that the household appliances and light manufacturing sectors will face the most significant pressure, followed by electronics, beauty care, power equipment, machinery, basic chemicals, automotive, textiles, and non-ferrous metals [2][17][18] Group 3: Monthly Market Review - The report notes that in April, global risk appetite experienced significant fluctuations due to unexpected tariff announcements, leading to a sharp decline in stock and bond markets, followed by a gradual recovery [3][19] - A-shares showed a "√" shaped recovery pattern, although most indices ended the month lower, with domestic demand and dividend stocks performing relatively better [3][19][20] Group 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report anticipates a continuation of the volatile market pattern, influenced by U.S.-China tensions, liquidity conditions, and policy shifts [4][5] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with independent industrial trends, such as domestic AI, smart vehicles, and robotics, while also considering policy-driven sectors like domestic consumption and real estate [5]

Group 1: Asset Structure - The asset structure of Chinese technology assets shows that A-shares are more focused on manufacturing, while Hong Kong and US stocks lean towards internet software services and new energy vehicle sectors [9][10][11] - In A-shares, technology assets account for nearly 50% of the market, with hardware and electrical equipment dominating [9] - In Hong Kong, technology assets represent 61% of the market, with a balanced distribution between technology services and manufacturing [10] - In the US, technology assets account for approximately 92% of the market, predominantly in software services and internet companies [11] Group 2: Performance Comparison - Since 2024, the revenue and profit growth rates of technology assets in Hong Kong and the US have surpassed those in A-shares, with ROE_TTM also beginning to exceed A-shares [21][22] - As of Q3 2024, the revenue growth rates for A-shares, Hong Kong, and US-listed Chinese technology assets were 3.5%, 7.5%, and 14.1% respectively, while net profit growth rates were -11.3%, 31.2%, and 76.1% [23] - The profitability of technology assets in Hong Kong and the US is significantly higher, particularly in the software services and media sectors, compared to A-shares [32][33] Group 3: Valuation Comparison - The valuation of A-shares is generally lower than that of Hong Kong and US stocks, with A-share technology indices trading at historical averages [6][21] - As of March 11, 2025, the PE ratios for A-shares' ChiNext 50 and Sci-Tech Innovation 50 indices were 32x and 41x, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech index was at 25x [21] - The PS ratios for A-shares' Sci-Tech 50 and Sci-Tech 100 indices were 5x and 6.8x, indicating a potential for upward valuation adjustments [21] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The report suggests that the revaluation of Chinese technology assets is expected to continue, with each market having its unique advantages [5][21] - The ongoing support for technological innovation from government policies, particularly in AI and robotics, is anticipated to drive further interest in these assets [5][21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes optimism towards domestic AI and IP derivatives as two main investment themes, highlighting the ongoing innovation in AI applications and the potential for consumer recovery driven by government policies [4][2]. - The report suggests that the domestic large model innovation and AI application explosion is just beginning, contrasting it with the two-year trend observed in the US market [4]. - Key recommendations include companies like Alibaba, Kingsoft, Tencent, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, and Cloud Music in the cloud computing and AI application sectors, while also highlighting the rise of domestic IP derivatives with companies like Pop Mart and Alibaba Pictures [4]. Summary by Sections AI Applications - Significant advancements in AI gaming and hardware are noted, with companies like Anuttacon developing AI-driven games and partnerships forming to provide AI lifestyle solutions for families [4]. - The report identifies key players in AI gaming such as Giant Network and Kaein Network, and in AI hardware, it mentions Kid King and Volcano Engine [4]. Domestic IP Derivatives - The rise of domestic IP derivatives is highlighted as a core investment theme, with a shift from manufacturing to product and user-centric thinking among companies [4]. - The report points out the increasing global influence of domestic IP, citing successful works like "Nezha 2" and "Black Myth: Wukong" [4]. Advertising and Media - The report indicates that companies like Focus Media have a safety margin, with short-term attention on consumer recovery and long-term focus on new advertising demands driven by AI applications [4]. - The report also provides a valuation table for key companies, detailing their market capitalization, revenue, and profit forecasts for 2023 to 2025 [6].