记者 辛圆 财政部部长蓝佛安在周五国新办举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会上介绍，"十四五"以来，财政政策力度更加给力。赤字率从2.7%提高 到3.8%，今年进一步提高到4%；安排新增地方政府专项债券额度19.4万亿元；新增减税降费及退税返税超10万亿元。 蓝佛安表示，财政政策统筹考虑防风险和促发展，始终留有后手，未来财政政策发力空间依然充足。 他进一步指出，一是我国经济长期向好的趋势没有变，这决定了财政运行的基本盘始终是坚实稳固的。二是这些年我们积累了越来越多的宏观调控经验，政 策工具不断丰富，跨周期调节能力大大增强。三是随着重点领域风险防范制度机制进一步健全，以及存量风险逐步消化，财政应对未来挑战更有底气、更加 从容。 8月12日，财政部等多部门发布了《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》和《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》，这是中央财政首次对个人消费贷 款进行贴息，两项贴息政策贴息比例为1个百分点，降低相关居民消费和服务业经营主体的信贷成本，从而激发消费潜力稳经济。 报告在部署接下来重点工作时提到，要全力支持稳就业稳外贸；要加快培育壮大发展新动能；进一步保障和改善民生；持续用力防范化 ...

Core Insights - As of August 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,222 billion, an increase of $299 billion from the end of July, representing a growth rate of 0.91% [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - The rise in foreign exchange reserves in August is attributed to expectations regarding monetary policies of major economies, macroeconomic data, and a decline in the US dollar index, leading to an overall increase in global financial asset prices [1] - The foreign exchange reserves have reached a new high since January 2016, indicating China's enhanced capability to mitigate various shocks [1] Group 2: Economic Stability and Outlook - Despite increasing external uncertainties, China's economy remains solid, with significant advantages and potential [1] - The country possesses ample macroeconomic tools and policy space to support domestic demand, contributing to the stability of foreign exchange reserves [1] - Factors such as diversified trade regional layout, optimized trade structure, and the growing attractiveness of RMB assets to international capital are expected to help maintain a basic balance in international payments and stabilize foreign exchange reserves [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference in 2024 emphasizes the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy to stimulate economic growth, enhance employment, and support industrial transformation [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Adjustment - The shift from "active" to "more active" fiscal policy marks a significant adjustment in China's fiscal stance since 2008, aimed at addressing insufficient total demand and promoting high-quality economic development [2][3]. Fiscal Deficit and Debt Management - The fiscal deficit is set at around 4% for the year, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan and plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds, alongside 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds [3][4]. - The government maintains that the current deficit level is within a safe threshold, despite surpassing the traditional 3% warning line, as it reflects a strategic approach to fiscal space and debt management [5][7]. Economic Stimulus and Confidence Building - The proactive fiscal policy aims to expand domestic demand and stabilize confidence, providing financial support to stimulate consumption and investment, thereby enhancing overall economic activity [9][10]. - It also focuses on risk prevention in key areas, ensuring stable macroeconomic operations through targeted fiscal measures [10][11]. Support for Livelihood and Strategic Initiatives - The policy prioritizes investments in social welfare, education, healthcare, and other critical areas to enhance public services and support major national strategies, including green development and technological innovation [11][12]. - Specific measures include increasing subsidies for consumption, enhancing social security, and providing targeted support for vulnerable groups [12][22]. Coordination of Policies - There is a strong emphasis on the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to enhance macroeconomic stability and promote a virtuous economic cycle [4][13]. - The government aims to leverage fiscal tools to attract social capital and ensure effective implementation of fiscal policies [13][19]. Challenges and Future Directions - The effectiveness of the more proactive fiscal policy may be constrained by existing inertia, systemic issues, and external economic pressures [14][16][17]. - Future efforts should focus on balancing short-term fiscal stability with long-term sustainability, optimizing fiscal resource allocation, and enhancing the overall impact of fiscal measures [19][20][21].

在经济低迷阶段 扩大内需 要有有效投资作为关键 这方面的安排 再带动的作为基础的消费 得到大力的提振 这叫全方位扩大内需 那么比如说中央也好 地方也好 它用政府的资金 来做一些公共工程项目 重大基础设施项目 它马上会产生什么 就是就业机会 工程一开工 就要有更多的人去就业 去做事 另外还会产生跟这个工程相关的 一批原材料和设备的订单 这个原材料设备订单 到了具体企业里边 又是有可能增加就业机会 和提升它的企业这方面的 它的生产经营绩效的 无论是增加就业还是提高企业的绩效 它都增加了 形成的这样的一种 它带来的经济景气效应 它会形成一个加入良性循环的 这样一个动态过程 那么随之而来的 有可能就进一步的 提高我们所说的市场的信心 改善预期 这个老百姓跟就业相关的收入和奖金 有了更高的消费能力 有千千万万家庭和老百姓消费 那么这个宏观调控 从政府自己可做的有效投资发力 虽然不是那种企业应该去做的 那种一般竞争项目的投资 但它产生的这整个这效应 是一个良性循环了 这个良性循环 是给我们广大老百姓造福的 这个关系要看全了 以后 它不是我们故意在宣传上这么说 是经济生活中间 实实在在的 形成这样一个系统化的连接 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of proactive macroeconomic policies to sustain economic growth and address challenges, highlighting the need for effective government governance and scientific macro-control [1] - The report indicates that despite notable achievements, there are fluctuations in key economic indicators such as fixed asset investment and retail sales, suggesting a slowdown in domestic demand [1] - The government is implementing various measures, including issuing long-term special bonds and utilizing multiple monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity and stabilize employment [1] Group 2 - Enhancing policy effectiveness requires timely responses to market concerns and ensuring the forward-looking nature of macroeconomic policies, focusing on stimulating market vitality [2] - The necessity of a robust evaluation mechanism is highlighted to assess the effectiveness of policies, ensuring they meet their intended goals and adjusting them as needed [2] - Strengthening collaborative innovation is essential for ensuring the systemic nature of policies, promoting a unified national market, and addressing competitive challenges [3] Group 3 - The report stresses the importance of aligning policy goals, tools, timing, intensity, and rhythm to maximize the impact of policies on economic entities and the public [3] - Positive market expectations are crucial as they can lead to proactive economic behaviors, encouraging long-term and creative activities [3] - The coordinated approach across various policy areas, including finance, trade, and employment, is vital for enhancing the internal driving force for high-quality development [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation characterized by low inflation and its historical implications, emphasizing the need for coordinated macroeconomic policies to stimulate nominal economic growth and stabilize prices [2][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The CPI has fluctuated around 0% for 27 months, while the PPI has seen a decline of 3.6%, marking 33 consecutive months of negative growth [2]. - The GDP deflator index has been negative for nine consecutive quarters, surpassing the conditions seen during the 1998 Asian financial crisis [2]. - The sluggish price environment has led to a decline in nominal economic growth, reaching new lows since 2023, which has weakened market expectations and increased financial risks [2]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The article suggests a dual approach to boost nominal economic growth by addressing both supply and demand sides, including incorporating a broad price index into macroeconomic targets and implementing unconventional counter-cyclical policies [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of enhancing fiscal and monetary policies, particularly through increased fiscal spending and the use of unconventional monetary measures to combat low inflation [5]. - The need for real estate market stabilization is highlighted, advocating for the removal of restrictions in first-tier cities to stimulate demand and improve market confidence [6]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The article notes that the sluggish performance in real estate investment, combined with tariff impacts, has significantly affected the PPI, particularly through midstream chemical products, which account for over 60% of PPI fluctuations [2]. - It discusses the positive effects of recent regulations aimed at curbing price competition in emerging industries like new energy vehicles and lithium batteries, which have helped stabilize prices and alleviate operational pressures on companies [3]. Group 4: Consumer and Employment Strategies - To enhance service consumption, the article recommends stabilizing and expanding employment, particularly in sectors with high demand, and improving social security systems to support low-income groups [7]. - It advocates for increased fiscal investment in essential services and consumer subsidies to stimulate sustainable consumption growth [7]. - The article also emphasizes the importance of urbanization strategies that focus on human capital accumulation and consumption quality improvement as key drivers for future economic growth [8].

对于当前宏观经济形势，《报告》认为，当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，世界经济增长动能减弱，贸 易壁垒增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战。同时，我国经济基 础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，要保持战略定力，集中力量 办好自己的事，推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略任务取得重大突破。下阶段，中国人民银行将坚持以 习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻落实党的二十届三中全会和中央经济工作会议精 神，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念，坚定不移走中国特色金融发展之 路，进一步深化金融改革和高水平对外开放，持续推动金融高质量发展和金融强国建设，加快完善中央 银行制度，进一步健全货币政策框架。平衡好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部均衡与外部均衡、支 持实体经济与保持银行体系自身健康性的关系，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性，保持政策连 续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，强化宏观政策取向一致性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期， 努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，实现"十四五"圆满收官。 落实落细适度宽松的货币政策。根据国内外经济金融形势 ...

Consumption Data - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, slowing from 3.8% in the previous month[2] - Household deposits grew by 10.27% year-on-year in July, a slowdown of 0.51 percentage points from the previous month; household loans increased by 2.65%, down 0.33 percentage points[2] - The retail sales of petroleum and products showed negative growth, dragging down the overall retail sales growth by 0.44 percentage points[2] Real Estate Market - In July, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.09 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 8.4%, with the decline expanding by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[15] - The average price of commercial housing fell by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in housing prices[21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development funding sources was 7.5%, with domestic loans down by 0.5 percentage points to 0.1%[26] Investment Trends - From January to July, national fixed asset investment totaled 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, slowing by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 3.2%, but the pace has slowed due to reduced government spending and early utilization of government bonds[28] - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous period, reflecting a slowdown in investment across various sectors[35]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the effectiveness of the moderately loose monetary policy implemented in the first half of the year, which has contributed to economic recovery and stability amidst a complex international environment [1][2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has introduced a series of monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and structural adjustments, which have been fully implemented within a month [2]. - The report indicates that the monetary policy has effectively supported the real economy, with financial data showing positive trends in the first seven months [2][4]. Economic Structure and Consumption - The report emphasizes a shift in consumption patterns from goods to services as income levels rise, suggesting that service consumption will be a key driver of economic growth in the future [3][8]. - There is a significant opportunity for high-quality service consumption to enhance the balance of supply and demand in the economy [2][3]. Financial Support and Credit Structure - The report outlines that the focus of bank loans aligns with the direction of China's economic transformation, with approximately 70% of new loans directed towards sectors related to new growth drivers and domestic demand [6]. - The PBOC has made efforts to optimize the credit structure, with a notable increase in medium- and long-term loans, which are crucial for supporting high-quality economic development [7]. Direct Financing and Market Dynamics - The proportion of direct financing, including corporate bonds and stocks, has increased to 31.1%, indicating a continuous improvement in the financing structure [7]. - The report suggests that enhancing the supply of high-quality services is essential for stimulating consumer demand, as the current service consumption share is still below 50% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of promoting a reasonable recovery in prices as a key consideration for monetary policy, aiming to maintain prices at a reasonable level [1][6]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - Under the leadership of the Central Committee, macroeconomic policies have been actively implemented, resulting in a stable economic operation with major indicators showing strong vitality and resilience. The GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year [2]. Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank has adopted a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to support high-quality economic development. This includes a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio in May, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [3]. - The policy interest rates were lowered by 0.1 percentage points, and structural monetary policy tool rates were reduced by 0.25 percentage points in May, aiming to decrease overall financing costs [3]. Financial Stability and Risk Management - The monetary policy has shown effective counter-cyclical adjustments, with the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) growing by 8.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, by the end of June. The balance of RMB loans reached 268.6 trillion yuan [4]. - The central bank aims to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate and has implemented measures to prevent systemic financial risks [5][7]. Future Outlook - The central bank plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations. It will also enhance the interest rate adjustment framework and support key areas such as technology innovation and consumption [6].