智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，新型储能经济性改善，火电盈利稳定性提升，抽蓄稳中提 质。2026年我国新型储能需求有望保持高景气增长，有望带动储能产业链各环节盈利的改善，推荐储能 电池及材料龙头企业。具有选址、运营优势的龙头集成企业有望实现储能电站更高收益率并提高市占 率。电力交易能力有望成为储能电站运营的核心壁垒。 近年来，我国在电力市场化改革过程中持续强化对容量电价机制建设的政策引导。2026年1月30日，国 家发展改革委、国家能源局发布《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》(发改价格〔2026〕114号)， 强调：分类完善煤电、天然气发电、抽水蓄能、新型储能容量电价机制，优化电力市场机制，通过"保 底工资"的制度性安排，推动相关电源顶峰时发电保供，有力促进新能源消纳利用;容量电价新政亦首次 明确可靠容量补偿标准确定原则，有望从"分类补偿"有序扩展至"同工同酬"，推动各类调节性电源的公 平竞争。此外，多省区率先发布落地政策：内蒙古与新疆实行储能放电量补偿，较难动态反映容量供 需;河北容量补偿未建立容量补偿设定标准，本质为固定式补偿;甘肃、青海与宁夏三地在容量电费的计 算方法上统一采用了"有效容量×容 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the national capacity pricing policy in the electricity sector, which aims to provide fixed investment cost recovery pathways for coal, gas, pumped storage, and energy storage power sources, ensuring grid stability [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The new capacity pricing mechanism complements the existing energy and ancillary service markets, completing the policy framework for a unified national electricity market [2]. - The capacity pricing aims to increase revenue for energy storage in the market, although actual returns are limited. For instance, in Gansu, the combined revenue from storage capacity fees and peak-valley price differences yields a return rate of approximately 5%, which is considered low [1][4]. - Gansu serves as an early pilot for a reliable capacity compensation mechanism, using a method based on coal and storage for proportional calculations, which can provide a reference for other provinces, especially those with significant peak-valley price differences like Shandong [1][6]. - The future reliable capacity compensation mechanism will include all types of power sources, with discount coefficients calculated based on peak duration and capacity, aiming to establish the concept of "reliable capacity" for a more volatile capacity market [7]. Policy Adjustments - Adjustments to coal power policies include relaxing long-term contract signing ratio limits to ensure fixed investment cost recovery while reducing the burden on users, with a standard of 330 yuan/kW per year for fixed investment recovery [8]. - The new capacity pricing document will abolish the peak-shaving capacity market, reflecting the urgent demand for regulatory resources while preventing excessive peak-valley price differences [4]. Regional Implementation and Variations - As of now, some provinces have not yet released new capacity pricing documents, while others have set standards above 165 yuan/kW per year, including Gansu and Yunnan at 330 yuan/kW [10]. - Provinces with low coal power utilization hours, such as Guangxi, Qinghai, and Liaoning, are more likely to increase capacity prices to recover costs, while those with higher utilization hours may not adjust prices due to complexities in settlement [11]. Storage and Pumped Storage Policies - The new policy clarifies charging policies for pumped storage and energy storage, requiring payment of transmission and distribution fees during charging, while refunds are provided during generation [9]. - The growth of energy storage installations is projected to reach 140 million kW by the end of 2025 and 180 million kW by 2026, with annual additions potentially reaching 100 million kW [22]. Market Dynamics and Future Trends - The capacity market is expected to benefit both coal and storage industries, ensuring fixed investment cost recovery even with low utilization hours [14]. - The design of the capacity market will assess the reliability of different types of regulatory resources, with a gradual transition to a more mature market model [15]. - The peak-valley price difference in the spot market is increasing, influenced by the volatility of new energy installations, with projections indicating further widening in the future [19]. Conclusion - The establishment of a unified capacity pricing mechanism is crucial for the stability and profitability of the electricity market, particularly for coal and energy storage sectors, while regional variations in implementation reflect local market conditions and energy utilization patterns [14][18].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,776 points, down 2.2%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 2.5% to 9,080 points[1] - Total turnover in the Hong Kong stock market was HKD 347.9 billion, a 15.4% increase from HKD 301.6 billion last Friday[1] - The materials, energy, and healthcare indices dropped by 6.0%, 4.0%, and 3.5% respectively, while consumer staples, utilities, and financials saw smaller declines of 0.2%, 1.1%, and 1.6%[1] Stock Performance - Sands China (1928 HK) and Lenovo Group (992 HK) led the blue-chip gainers, rising by 4.1% and 1.8% respectively[1] - BYD Company (1211 HK) and China Unicom (762 HK) were the biggest losers, falling by 6.9% and 6.3% respectively[1] Commodity Prices - Oil prices decreased from USD 65 to approximately USD 62, while gold prices fell from USD 5,400 to around USD 4,700[2] - The decline in commodity prices is attributed to reduced geopolitical risks and expectations of limited interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[2] Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for January in the U.S. was reported at 52.6, exceeding December's 47.9 and the market forecast of 48.3[3] - In mainland China, the transaction volume of new homes in 30 major cities reached 1.48 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 983.8% due to last year's Spring Festival holiday[3] Industry Insights - Macau's gaming revenue for January was AUD 22.63 billion, up 24.0% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations[4] - The healthcare index in Hong Kong fell by 3.5%, with Rongchang Bio (9995 HK) expecting a revenue increase of 89% to RMB 3.25 billion, significantly above market expectations[4] Energy Sector - The energy sector, particularly thermal power and electrical equipment stocks, saw significant declines, with Huaneng International (902 HK) down 6.8%[5] - Recent policy changes by the National Development and Reform Commission regarding electricity pricing have raised concerns in the market, despite potential long-term benefits[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to trade in a narrow range [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to trade weakly in resonance with market sentiment [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to trade weakly as cost expectations loosen, and silicomanganese is expected to trade weakly in resonance with commodity sentiment [2][12]. - Coke is expected to trade at high levels, and coking coal is expected to trade at high levels as events unfold [2][18][19]. - Thermal coal supply and demand are in a weak balance, and prices are expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][23]. - Logs are expected to see a slight price increase [2][25]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 783.0 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.07%. The open interest decreased by 20,544 to 520,684 lots. Spot prices of various iron ore types decreased, and some basis and price spreads changed [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar - **Fundamental Data**: In the week of January 29, rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.8 million tons. Rebar inventory increased by 23.43 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 9.12 million tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.45 million tons [8][10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were various production, inventory, and price data from the China Iron and Steel Association, and an accident at Baotou Steel's plate plant. Also, BHP's iron ore production hit a record high, and China implemented export license management for some steel products [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Various price spreads changed [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The proportion of fixed - cost recovery of coal - fired power units through capacity prices will be increased. There were price quotes and production data of ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and manganese ore from different sources. River Steel's 75B ferrosilicon tender price decreased, and manganese ore inventory increased [12][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coking coal (JM2605) and coke (J2605) decreased. Spot prices of most coking coal and coke types remained stable. Some basis and price spreads changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index decreased, and the coking coal online auction had a higher failure rate and mixed price changes [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [22]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: There were price data of thermal coal from different regions, including origin, port, and overseas prices. The February long - term contract prices of thermal coal in some regions decreased [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The port market was stable with weak trading. Some Indonesian coal mines may have a significant production cut. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on improving the power - generation - side capacity price mechanism [23][24]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: There were price, trading volume, and open - interest data of log futures contracts. Spot prices of various log types in different markets had different fluctuations [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [28].

2026年1月27日，国家发展改革委与国家能源局联合发布《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》 （发改价格〔2026〕114号），首次在国家层面明确建立"电网侧独立新型储能容量电价机制"。 中国储能产业一直在等待的"顶层设计"终于落地。过去靠"峰谷价差套利"收益模式的储能项目，将 获得稳定可靠的固定收益。 01 顶层设计变革 许多项目选址和收益测算围绕政策高地，导致实际利用率低，内部收益率（IRR）虚高。容量电价 提供了确定性的基础现金流，让项目的财务模型变得清晰可预期。 这份国家级政策从根本上打消了市场对地方政策延续性和碎片化的担忧，其长期有效的特性，为资 本提供了稳定的预期。 《通知》中最受行业关注的部分，是将"电网侧独立新型储能"纳入国家级容量电价机制框架。 现行机制的核心问题是"供需错配"与"适配不足"。随着新能源成为我国第一大装机电源类型，但 其"靠天吃饭"的随机性与波动性，使调节性电源成为不可或缺的"兜底"力量。 其收益模式正式确立为"容量电价+现货套利+辅助服务"的三重支撑。其中，容量电价作为稳定的 基础收益，意义最为重大。 煤电、气电、抽水蓄能与新型储能这些"电力系统稳定器"，过去没有获得与其" ...

③首次被纳入容量电价机制，新型储能开启加速建设周期； ④"易中天"业绩大爆发，算力产业链或迎新一轮上涨。 点击付费阅读，解锁市场最强音，把握投资机会！ 前言 券商研报信息复杂？机构调研数据过时？屡屡错失投资机会？那是你不会挖！想知道哪份研报有用？什 么时候该看？《研报金选》满足你！每日拆解热门产业链或核心公司，快市场一步的投研思维+严苛的 研报选择标准+几近偏执的超预期挖掘，游资私募都在用！ 【今日速览】 ① Agent超级入口之争日趋白热化，分析师强call腾讯Agent"广度"优势！这些腾讯生态伙伴已卡位 核心节点； ② AIDC驱动储能升级，长时储能有望成数据中心基础电源，抢先布局头部厂商已圈出； ...

我国新型储能正在迎来新发展。 2月2日，中国电力企业联合会召开《2025—2026年度全国电力供需形势分析预测报告》新闻发布会。针 对近期《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》（发改价格〔2026〕114号，以下简称《通知》）首次 将新型储能纳入容量电价机制等问题。中电联副秘书长、电动交通与储能分会会长刘永东在会上向21世 纪经济报道记者表示，《通知》的发布对新型储能发展具有深远影响，有利于推动形成"可靠容量补偿 稳基本、电能量市场和辅助服务增效益"的收益结构。 当前我国新型储能发展态势向好。刘永东向21世纪经济报道记者表示，截至2025年底，我国新型储能装 机超1.3亿千瓦，比2024年增长80%以上。从区域分布看，装机排名前十省份装机规模均超5GWh，内蒙 古自治区装机规模第一。新型储能累计装机的平均时长在呈缓慢上升趋势，由2021年的2小时逐步增至 2.5小时左右，预计至2030年将超过3小时。 刘永东介绍，2024年以来，尤其是《国家能源局关于促进新型储能并网和调用的通知》出台后，整体利 用小时数持续提升。2025年整体利用小时数达到1100小时以上，比去年同期提升30%左右，比2023年提 升约90% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment due to policy improvements and market dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent improvements in the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to stabilize revenue and enhance the profitability of various power sources [6][10]. - It notes a slight increase in natural gas consumption in 2025, with a projected growth of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a stable demand outlook for the gas sector [32]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector: Capacity Pricing Mechanism Improvement - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to enhance the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, addressing mismatches in supply and demand within the new energy system [6]. - The new mechanism introduces differentiated pricing for various types of regulatory power sources, ensuring that their capacity value is adequately compensated [7]. - A unified compensation standard for peak capacity across different power sources is established, promoting rational investment and resource allocation in the power sector [8][10]. 2. Gas Sector: Continued Growth in Natural Gas Consumption - Natural gas consumption in China is expected to reach 385.7 billion cubic meters by December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [32]. - The report emphasizes the impact of cold weather on gas prices, with global prices remaining high, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, which supports the profitability of gas companies [13][19]. - The report suggests that the gas sector will benefit from a combination of lower costs and improved demand, particularly for city gas companies, with recommendations for several key players in the market [34]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report notes that the public utility, power, gas, and environmental sectors underperformed relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the week of January 24 to January 30, 2026 [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - As of the end of 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, with significant growth in solar and wind power installations [43]. - The report includes various company announcements, highlighting performance forecasts and operational updates from key players in the energy sector [44].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has adopted a more cautious outlook on China's thermal power utilities, downgrading the rating of China Resources Power from "Overweight" to "Neutral" and reducing the target price from HKD 21.5 to HKD 17. The firm maintains a "Underweight" rating on Huaneng Power International, lowering the H-shares target price from HKD 4.85 to HKD 4.5 [1] Group 1 - The removal of the electricity price floor may lead to a further decline in the on-grid electricity price for thermal power starting in 2027, which could compress the profit margins of the companies covered by the firm [1] - The government has mentioned plans to improve the capacity pricing mechanism, but there is significant uncertainty regarding the strength, implementation timing, and whether it will be sufficient to offset the decline in base electricity prices [1] - The profitability outlook for thermal power plants has become unfavorable, with expected downward risks to market earnings forecasts and dividend predictions [1]

2026 年 2 月 2 日 碳酸锂：容量电价出台，盘面或底部企稳 | 邵婉嫕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023466 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 148,200 | -16,620 | -33,320 | 2,000 | 29,380 | 66,800 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 552,668 | 31,334 | 209,863 | -38,855 | -136,096 | 494,753 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 372,601 | -29,746 | -66,127 | -43,532 | -139,744 | 279,381 | | | ...