Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices have rebounded, and the price of propane in the external market has also stopped falling and rebounded. The short - term rebound in the cost side has slightly boosted the price trend of propylene. The supply side remains relatively loose due to some plant shutdowns and others ramping up production. The demand side shows that downstream cost pressure has eased, but downstream procurement is cautious. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of propylene remains loose, with limited upward drivers but also limited downside space at the current low price level. Attention should be paid to the impact of trade frictions on propane supply and the start - stop status of PDH plants [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6084 yuan/ton (+49), the East China spot price is 6075 yuan/ton (+0), the North China spot price is 6010 yuan/ton (+0), the East China basis is - 9 yuan/ton (-49), and the North China basis is - 74 yuan/ton (-49) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Propylene capacity utilization is 74% (-1%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR is 220 US dollars/ton (-18), and propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 136 US dollars/ton (-7) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 396 yuan/ton (+127) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization is 39% (-1.31%), with a production profit of - 10 yuan/ton (+0); epoxy propane capacity utilization is 68% (-4%), with a production profit of - 51 yuan/ton (-33); n - butanol capacity utilization is 90% (+2%), with a production profit of 12 yuan/ton (+0); octanol capacity utilization is 92% (-4%), with a production profit of - 199 yuan/ton (-100); acrylic acid capacity utilization is 75% (-8%), with a production profit of 1037 yuan/ton (-125); acrylonitrile capacity utilization is 79% (+0%), with a production profit of - 516 yuan/ton (-25); phenol - acetone capacity utilization is 78% (+0%), with a production profit of - 416 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 41490 tons (-1900) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see; the market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and pay attention to the dynamics of PDH plants - Inter - period: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract for PL01 - 02 when the spread is high - Inter - commodity: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: After the holiday, the negotiation atmosphere in the PTA spot market was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly. With some PTA device maintenance and production cuts, along with the delay of new device commissioning, the PTA supply - demand outlook improved. It is expected that the short - term spot price will still fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes and downstream production and sales [6]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level on Monday, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The ethylene glycol market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to external factors and device changes. In October, the supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol turned to inventory accumulation, with an overall inventory increase of around 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month, significantly pressuring market sentiment [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - PTA: Overnight crude oil tumbled last Friday but rebounded on Monday. PTA futures opened lower and fluctuated on the previous day, with a small decline in the end. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis weakened. There were rumors that the 3 - million - ton PTA device of Dushan Energy Phase 4 was planned to be put into operation in mid - October, and an old device would be temporarily shut down if the new one was commissioned [7]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level on Monday. The spot price opened lower and then slightly recovered, and the spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. The overseas market center of ethylene glycol declined, and traders were the main participants in the trading [8]. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The fundamentals were neutral; the basis was neutral; the inventory was bearish as the PTA factory inventory was 4.22 days, a 0.47 - day increase from the previous period; the disk was bearish as the 20 - day moving average was downward and the closing price was below it; the main position was bearish with a net short position and a reduction in short positions [7]. - MEG: The fundamentals were neutral; the basis was neutral; the inventory was bearish as the total inventory in East China was 445,100 tons, a 40,800 - ton increase from the previous period; the disk was bearish as the 20 - day moving average was downward and the closing price was below it; the main position was bearish with a net short position and a reduction in short positions [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Factors affecting PTA and MEG: - Bullish factors: Before the holiday, the polyester market had a booming sales under the combined positive effects of increased demand and rising oil prices. The inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarn quickly decreased to about half a month, and the price rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, the polyester price remained stable. Some PTA device maintenance and production cuts, along with the delay of new device commissioning [9][10]. - Bearish factors: A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China was gradually increasing its production to over 90%, after reducing production around October 7 [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provides PTA supply - demand data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, production, consumption, inventory, etc. [13]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provides ethylene glycol supply - demand data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, port inventory, etc. [14]. - Price Data: Shows price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers from October 10 to October 13, 2025, as well as basis and profit data [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For PTA, the futures markets fluctuated and closed lower, with the spot market showing average negotiation atmosphere and little change in spot basis. The market expects the basis to have limited upside potential, and the absolute price to fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price center had a narrow - range oscillation, and the market negotiation was average. Before the holiday, the intention of traders to hold goods was weak. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation is expected to turn to surplus, and the fundamental support is weak. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2. Daily Hints - **PTA Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: Futures fluctuated and closed lower, spot negotiation average, basis little change. 10 - mid contracts traded at a discount of around 55 to 01 contracts, price negotiation range 4570 - 4610. Mainstream spot basis is 01 - 55 [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4590, 01 contract basis is - 62, neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period, bullish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it, bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: Net short, short positions increasing, bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Futures prices rebounded with the cost side this week. Some PTA devices reduced production or shut down due to typhoons, and downstream polyester sales improved significantly, with the spot basis strengthening slightly. However, the market expectation is still bearish, and the basis is expected to have limited upside potential [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol had a narrow - range oscillation, and the market negotiation was average. Spot transactions were mainly at a premium of 63 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the trading was weak. Traders' intention to hold goods before the holiday was not high [7]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4295, 01 contract basis is 71, bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 40.43 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period, bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it, bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: Main net short, short positions decreasing, bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: Polyester sales improved significantly last week, and the product inventory of polyester factories decreased significantly. Before the holiday, the intention to hold ethylene glycol in the market was weak. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation will turn to surplus, and the fundamental support is weak [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors Summary** - **Bullish Factors**: - Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 607,000 barrels, which was in contrast to analysts' forecast of an increase of 235,000 barrels [8]. - As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has some expectations for the start of demand [9]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to resume production in November [10]. - **Bearish Factors**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the market rebounds [11]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents data from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA capacity, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory, as well as changes in supply and demand year - on - year [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows data from January 2024 to December 2025, including ethylene glycol production, import, consumption, and port inventory, as well as changes in supply and demand year - on - year [13]. - **Price - related Data**: - **Bottle Chip Spot Price**: Shows the price trends of PET bottle chips in the East China market from 2020 to 2025 [15][16][17]. - **Bottle Chip Production Gross Margin**: Displays the production gross margin trends of bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [18][19][20]. - **Bottle Chip Capacity Utilization Rate**: Presents the capacity utilization rate trends of bottle chips from 2021 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Bottle Chip Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of bottle chips from 2021 to 2024 [23][24]. - **PTA Spread and Basis**: Includes TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1 spreads and PTA basis trends from 2019 to 2025 [25][26][27][29][30][31]. - **MEG Spread and Basis**: Covers EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1 spreads and MEG basis trends from 2021 to 2025 [32][33][34][35][36][37][38]. - **Spot Spread**: Displays TA - EG spot spread and paraxylene processing spread trends from 2021 to 2025 [39][40]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **PTA Inventory**: Shows the trends of PTA factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [42]. - **MEG Inventory**: Presents the trends of MEG port inventory in East China from 2021 to 2025 [42]. - **PET Chip Inventory**: Displays the trends of PET chip factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Polyester Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of polyester products such as polyester staple fiber, DTY, FDY, and POY from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48][49][50][51]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: - **Upstream Operating Rates**: Include the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [52][53][54][55]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Comprise the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [56][57][58][59]. - **Profit - related Data**: - **PTA Processing Fee**: Shows the PTA processing fee trends from 2022 to 2025 [60][61]. - **MEG Profit**: Presents the profit trends of different MEG production methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Polyester Fiber Profit**: Displays the profit trends of polyester staple fiber, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [65][66][67][68][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: In the fourth quarter, PX supply - demand is expected to weaken, and PXN may be compressed. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. PX11 can be treated as fluctuating between 6600 - 6900 [2]. - PTA: New device commissioning is postponed, and some device maintenance plans are announced, which boosts PTA in the short - term. In the medium - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the absolute price follows raw materials. TA can be treated as fluctuating between 4600 - 4800, and TA1 - 5 can be rolled in reverse arbitrage [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. In September, it is expected to be good, but in the fourth quarter, it will enter the inventory accumulation period. EG can be observed unilaterally, and EG1 - 5 can be in reverse arbitrage [2]. - Short Fiber: The short - term supply - demand is weak. The short - fiber price has support at low levels but weak rebound drive, and the rhythm follows raw materials [2]. - Bottle Chip: In September, supply increases slightly, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. PR follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upside space [2]. Urea Industry The urea futures are running weakly due to increasing supply and lack of demand growth. The short - term futures are expected to run weakly [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: After a rebound, it retraces. The supply may decline due to maintenance, and the demand support is limited. The spot price may stabilize, and the decline space of the futures price is limited [12]. - PVC: After a rebound, it retraces. The supply is expected to decrease due to maintenance, and the demand shows a marginal improvement. The cost provides bottom support. It can be short - sold at high prices [12]. Methanol Industry The mainland supply is at a high level, and the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand is weak, and the port inventory is accumulating. The overall valuation is neutral. The market sways between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations, and the inventory inflection point should be followed [22]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply may be higher than expected, and demand is weak. The short - term price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors. BZ2603 follows styrene to fluctuate [26]. - Styrene: Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand support is average. The port inventory is falling but still high. EB10 can be bought at low levels, and the spread between EB11 and BZ11 can be widened at low levels [26]. Crude Oil Industry The overnight oil price fluctuates in a range. The tight refined oil market supports the price, but the macro - economic slowdown restricts the upside. The oil price may fluctuate in a range in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, and look for opportunities to widen the spread on the option side [28]. Polyolefin Industry For PP, the profit is suppressed, there are many unplanned maintenance, and the inventory decreases. For PE, the maintenance is high, the basis rises, and the inventory is reduced. The demand has few new orders, and the market shows "supply decrease and demand increase" [33]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.8%, WTI crude oil (October) decreased by 0.7%, CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.6%, etc. [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price decreased by 0.4%, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, etc. [2]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX decreased, PX spot price (RMB) decreased, and PX basis (11) decreased by 39.0% [2]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2%, TA futures 2601 decreased by 1.0% [2]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.3%, EG futures 2601 decreased by 0.7% [2]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 2.5%, China PX operating rate increased by 4.9%, etc. [2]. Urea Industry - **Fertilizer Market**: The prices of some fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and sulfur decreased slightly, while others remained unchanged [6]. - **Supply - demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.82%, coal - based urea daily output increased by 1.97%, etc. [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price decreased by 2.4%, East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 0.4% [12]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port caustic soda increased by 1.3%, and the export profit increased by 120.2% [12]. - **Supply (Chlor - alkali Operating Rate and Industry Profit)**: PVC overall operating rate increased by 4.2%, and the profit of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 12.8% [12]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate increased by 1.5%, and Longzhong sample pipe operating rate increased by 12.3% [12]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda Shandong inventory increased by 17.0%, and PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.8% [12]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price decreased by 1.26%, and the spread between MA9 and MA1 changed by - 360.00% [22]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61%, and methanol port inventory increased by 0.48% [22]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.12%, and downstream externally - purchased MTO device operating rate increased by 8.72% [22]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.5%, and pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 4.5% [26]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot price decreased by 1.1%, and EB futures 2510 decreased by 1.1% [26]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 6.9%, and styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 9.9% [26]. - **Industrial Chain Operating Rates**: Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.4%, and domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.1% [26]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.75%, WTI decreased by 0.05%, and the spread between Brent M1 and M3 increased by 4.55% [28]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.13%, NYM ULSD increased by 0.02%, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.39% [28]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: US gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.51%, European gasoline crack spread decreased by 2.44% [28]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: L2601 closing price decreased by 0.79%, PP2601 closing price decreased by 0.80% [33]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57%, PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% [33]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.97%, PP device operating rate decreased by 2.5% [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Maintain a long - position view on crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1] - For methanol, due to high inventory and the influence of overall commodity sentiment, it is recommended to wait and see as the fundamentals are mixed [4] - Regarding urea, although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of short - term drivers, so it is advisable to wait and see or consider long positions at low prices [7] - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it is recommended to wait and see [12] - For PVC, given the strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is recommended to consider short positions on rallies, while being cautious of short - term upward movements [15] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [19] - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [22] - For polypropylene, with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [25] - For PX, due to high load and expected inventory accumulation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [29] - For PTA, although the de - stocking pattern continues, the processing fee is suppressed, and it is recommended to wait and see [32] - For ethylene glycol, it is recommended to go short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, while being cautious of the risk that the weak expectation may not materialize [34] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures contract closed down 8.00 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.60%, at 491.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed gasoline inventory increased by 0.26 million barrels to 14.37 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.14 million barrels to 9.72 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.12 million barrels to 25.41 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.00 million barrels to 49.50 million barrels [8] - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view [1] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang dropped 32 yuan, and in Inner Mongolia, it dropped 15 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 30 yuan/ton to 2346 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 96. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 18 to - 40, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [3] - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high inventory and the influence of overall commodity sentiment [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan dropped slightly by 10 yuan, and the 01 contract on the futures market dropped 11 yuan/ton to 1670 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 2 to - 55, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [6] - **Strategy**: Wait and see or consider long positions at low prices as the valuation is low but there is a lack of short - term drivers [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices dropped significantly with a technical breakdown, possibly due to the expected decrease in rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week but down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons from the previous week [10][11] - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term due to technical breakdown [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract dropped 50 yuan to 4923 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4770 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), with a basis of - 153 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton). The 1 - 5 spread was - 305 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.9%, up 2.8% month - on - month [14] - **Strategy**: Consider short positions on rallies, while being cautious of short - term upward movements due to strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation [15] Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5960 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price dropped 50 yuan/ton to 7150 yuan/ton, and the active contract's closing price dropped 76 yuan/ton to 7062 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of 88 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 133.12 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75%, down 4.70%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.75 tons to 15.90 tons [17][18] - **Strategy**: The BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 57 yuan/ton to 7188 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 7225 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of 37 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 79.5%, down 0.90% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 tons to 49.03 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.30 tons to 6.06 tons [21] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 56 yuan/ton to 6926 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6875 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of - 51 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.43%, up 0.47% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.45 tons to 55.06 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1.43 tons to 18.83 tons, while the port inventory increased by 0.29 tons to 6.18 tons [24] - **Strategy**: With high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [25] PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract dropped 88 yuan to 6684 yuan. The PX CFR dropped 9 dollars to 827 dollars, with a basis of 92 yuan (up 21 yuan). The 11 - 1 spread was 18 yuan (down 14 yuan). The PX load in China was 87.8%, up 4.1% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 79%, up 2.5% month - on - month [27] - **Strategy**: Wait and see as there is a lack of short - term drivers and the PXN has limited upward momentum [29] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract dropped 46 yuan to 4666 yuan, while the East China spot price increased 10 yuan to 4630 yuan, with a basis of - 77 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 38 yuan (down 2 yuan). The PTA load was 76.8%, remaining unchanged month - on - month [31] - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the de - stocking pattern continues but the processing fee is suppressed [32] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract dropped 29 yuan to 4268 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped 11 yuan to 4362 yuan, with a basis of 83 yuan (up 2 yuan). The 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (down 1 yuan). The overall load of ethylene glycol was 74.9%, remaining unchanged month - on - month. The port inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 46.5 tons [34] - **Strategy**: Go short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, while being cautious of the risk that the weak expectation may not materialize [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher due to some device news. The spot market trading atmosphere was average, and the basis of the spot slightly strengthened. The supply of PTA is expected to return, and the market supply - demand outlook is weak. The spot price of PTA will mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester upstream and downstream devices and terminal demand [5]. - **MEG**: The price of ethylene glycol was consolidating at a low level. The short - term supply and demand of ethylene glycol remained tight, and the basis still had some support during the delivery period. However, with the progress of new device commissioning, the supply - demand in the distant months will turn loose, and the disk will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to device changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1.前日回顾 There is no specific content about the previous day's review in the report. 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA**: The fundamentals were affected by device news. The spot basis was - 92, the factory inventory was 3.84 days (a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period), and the 20 - day moving average was downward. The main position was net short with a decrease in short positions. The supply is expected to return, and the price will follow the cost side [5][6]. - **MEG**: The price was consolidating at a low level. The spot basis was 76, the inventory in East China was 37.24 tons (a decrease of 0.73 tons compared with the previous period), and the 20 - day moving average was downward. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions. The short - term supply and demand was tight, but the long - term supply - demand will turn loose [7][8]. 3.3.今日关注 There is no specific content about what to focus on today in the report. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025. For example, in September 2025, the PTA production capacity was 9172, the production was 626, the total supply was 626, the total demand was 624, and the ending inventory was 337 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the EG production, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025. For example, in September 2025, the EG production was 58, the total supply was 234, the total demand was 233, and the port inventory change was 2 [13]. - **Price and Profit Data**: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester filaments, as well as the processing fees and profits of different production methods. For example, the PTA processing fee was 51.58 yuan/ton, and the naphtha MEG internal - market profit was - 1110.70 yuan/ton [14]. 3.5.影响因素总结 - **L利多**: The average operating load of polyester devices increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start was slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device was shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart in November [11]. - **利空**: The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continued to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere was still cautious. The short - term commodity market was greatly affected by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the cost side and the upper resistance level of the disk rebound [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Report PTA - Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and declined. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak with differentiation. Polyester factories' bids increased. The mainstream spot basis today is at 01 - 51. The PTA device maintenance effect was less than expected, the spot market liquidity was okay, the spot basis weakened, and the price fluctuated following the cost side. Although the processing margin improved slightly from the low point, it remained at a relatively low level. Attention should be paid to the maintenance situation of Hengli Huizhou's device and subsequent upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - The spot price is 4700, the 01 - contract basis is - 32, and the futures price is at a premium, which is neutral. The PTA factory inventory is 3.81 days, a 0.1 - day increase compared to the previous period, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. MEG - On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol (MEG) was consolidating at a low level, and the market negotiation was okay. The intraday MEG futures were weakly consolidating. The spot negotiation was traded at a premium of 86 - 92 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Some contract merchants and suppliers participated in restocking, and the spot basis moderately strengthened at the end of the session. In terms of US dollars, the overseas MEG price was consolidating at a low level. The early - morning negotiation price for near - term shipments was around 524 - 525 US dollars/ton, and the afternoon negotiation price dropped to around 520 - 522 US dollars/ton. The 9 - end - of - September shipments were traded at around 519 - 523 US dollars/ton, and some financing merchants participated in inquiries [7]. - The spot price is 4434, the 01 - contract basis is 103, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish. The total inventory in East China is 40.63 tons, a 9.42 - ton decrease compared to the previous period, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The arrival volume in early September is still moderately low, and there is still some room for a moderate decline in ports in the short term. In terms of demand, it is expected that the average load in September can reach 91.5%. The rigid demand support is gradually improving. Recently, the commodity market has corrected, and the MEG futures have been under pressure. It is expected that the price of MEG will mainly consolidate within a range in the short term, with strong support at the bottom. Subsequent attention should be paid to device changes and polyester load changes [7][8]. Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: In August, some PTA devices were scheduled for maintenance, improving supply - demand expectations. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has shown some expectations for demand recovery. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device stopped for maintenance, and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device had an unscheduled shutdown [11]. - Bearish factors: The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [10]. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side. For the futures price rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content found. 2. Daily Tips - No relevant content found. 3. Today's Focus - No relevant content found. 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity has been increasing. Supply and demand have shown certain fluctuations. For example, in 2025, the production capacity increased from 9172 in September to 9472 in November. The supply - demand gap also changed accordingly, with a 1.6% gap in September 2025 and a - 22.1% gap in October [12]. MEG Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of MEG have also changed. The supply - demand relationship has also been adjusted. For example, in 2025, the total supply in September was 234, and the supply - demand gap was 2 [13]. Price - Related Data - There are data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, and inventory. There are also data on PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spreads, and spot spreads, such as the TA - EG spot spread and p - xylene processing margin [15][18][22][23][29][32][39]. Inventory Analysis - There are data on PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [41][42][43][46]. Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates - There are data on the start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, MEG, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain [52][56]. Profit - Related Data - There are data on PTA processing fees, MEG production margins from different production methods, and production margins of polyester fibers [61][62][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda spot is expected to continue rising steadily, but the futures may face short - term resistance. PVC has large supply - demand pressure, and short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to have short - term low - buying opportunities, and the PX - SC spread can be expanded. PTA should be observed in the short term, with low - buying opportunities and TA1 - 5 reverse spreads. Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Short - fiber and bottle - chip strategies are similar to PTA [6]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene trends are expected to be weakly volatile, and BZ2603 should follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. Styrene has a weak short - term drive, and EB10 can be short - sold on rebounds [11]. Urea Industry - The urea market is weakly volatile, with high supply and weak demand. The fundamentals are difficult to reverse [14][15]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market has significant port inventory accumulation, weak basis, and the demand is affected by the off - season. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [18]. Polyolefin Industry - The overall supply pressure of polyolefins is not large before mid - September, and the LP01 spread can be held [44]. Crude Oil Industry - The short - term oil price rebounds, but the geopolitical risks and tariff uncertainties remain. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [46]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda increased by 1.2%, while the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 1.1%. Some futures prices and spreads also changed [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda and PVC industry operating rates decreased, and the profit of external calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 8.0% [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased slightly, but the PVC pre - sales volume decreased by 8.4% [2]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda and PVC upstream factory inventories decreased, while the PVC total social inventory increased by 3.1% [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: The prices of some upstream and downstream products of the polyester industry chain changed, such as the price of Brent crude oil increasing by 1.2% [6]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased by 8.6% [6]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the polyester industry chain changed, such as the Asian PX operating rate increasing by 2.2% [6]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: The prices of upstream and downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, such as the CFR China pure benzene price decreasing by 0.9% [11]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.2%, while the styrene inventory increased by 10.8% [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain changed, such as the domestic hydrogenated benzene operating rate decreasing by 8.0% [11]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: The urea futures prices and spreads changed, and the spot prices in different regions remained stable [14]. - **Supply**: The domestic urea daily output decreased by 0.81%, and the factory inventory increased by 6.05% [14]. - **Demand**: The demand is affected by the agricultural season and industrial factors, and the compound fertilizer inventory is high [14]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: The methanol futures and spot prices decreased, and the inventory increased significantly [16][17]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed slightly [18]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: The futures and spot prices of polyolefins decreased, and the spreads between some contracts changed [44]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, and the PE social inventory increased slightly [44]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE and PP operating rates changed, and the downstream weighted operating rates increased slightly [44]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between some contracts also changed [46]. - **Inventory**: The EIA US crude oil and refined product inventories decreased [46]. - **Operating Rates**: The US refinery operating rate decreased to 94.6% [50].

Price Index Overview - The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) for the week of August 11-15 is 95.46 points, reflecting a slight week-on-week increase of 0.07 points or 0.07% [1] - The long product price index decreased to 96.95 points, down 0.17 points or 0.18% week-on-week, while the flat product price index increased to 94.23 points, up 0.25 points or 0.26% week-on-week [1] Regional Price Trends - In North China, the steel price index rose to 94.41 points, up 0.29 points or 0.31% week-on-week [2] - The Northeast region saw a slight decline of 0.01 points to 93.63 points, while East China experienced a decrease of 0.13 points to 96.61 points [2] - The Central South region's index decreased by 0.03 points to 97.44 points, whereas Southwest and Northwest regions saw increases of 0.18 points and 0.50 points, respectively [2] Price Changes by Product - All eight major steel product prices decreased compared to the end of the previous month, with the largest drop in galvanized sheets and the smallest in hot-rolled sheets [3] - Specific price changes include: high-line steel at 3460 CNY/ton (down 0.65%), rebar at 3262 CNY/ton (down 0.52%), and cold-rolled sheets at 4029 CNY/ton (down 0.09%) [3] Cost Factors - The average import price of iron ore in July was 94.41 USD/ton, up 1.53 USD/ton or 1.65% month-on-month [4] - Domestic iron concentrate prices increased to 877 CNY/ton, up 5 CNY/ton or 0.58% [4] - Coking coal prices rose to 1364 CNY/ton, up 58 CNY/ton or 4.43%, while coke prices increased to 1427 CNY/ton, up 91 CNY/ton or 6.81% [4] Market Demand and Supply - Demand remains weak, particularly for construction steel, during the off-season [5] - Steel production has slightly decreased, while fuel prices for steelmaking have shown minor increases, providing some support to steel prices [5] - The market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward bias in the short term [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is not explicitly mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market maintains a volatile trend with limited driving forces. The current situation shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations in the crude oil market, resulting in limited guidance on the cost side for asphalt. The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with low inventory levels. The market has a certain level of support but lacks upward momentum, awaiting new variables [1]. - The recommended trading strategy for asphalt is a unilateral oscillation, with no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On July 21, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2509 in the afternoon session was 3,657 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 223,360 lots, a decrease of 4,713 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 141,580 lots, a decrease of 15,006 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast region, 3,900 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong region, 3,640 - 4,070 yuan/ton; South China region, 3,600 - 3,630 yuan/ton; East China region, 3,660 - 3,800 yuan/ton. The asphalt spot price in the Shandong market declined yesterday, while prices in other regions remained stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] Figures and Data - The report includes figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract), futures spreads, trading volume and open interest, domestic and regional asphalt production, domestic asphalt consumption in different sectors (road, waterproofing, coking, and ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social) [3].