Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is not explicitly mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market maintains a volatile trend with limited driving forces. The current situation shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations in the crude oil market, resulting in limited guidance on the cost side for asphalt. The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with low inventory levels. The market has a certain level of support but lacks upward momentum, awaiting new variables [1]. - The recommended trading strategy for asphalt is a unilateral oscillation, with no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On July 21, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2509 in the afternoon session was 3,657 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 223,360 lots, a decrease of 4,713 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 141,580 lots, a decrease of 15,006 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast region, 3,900 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong region, 3,640 - 4,070 yuan/ton; South China region, 3,600 - 3,630 yuan/ton; East China region, 3,660 - 3,800 yuan/ton. The asphalt spot price in the Shandong market declined yesterday, while prices in other regions remained stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] Figures and Data - The report includes figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract), futures spreads, trading volume and open interest, domestic and regional asphalt production, domestic asphalt consumption in different sectors (road, waterproofing, coking, and ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off - season in mid - August will limit its upside potential. A short - term target price of WTI at $70.4 per barrel is given, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits [2]. - For methanol, the upstream start - up continues to decline, and the overseas supply - side interference is gradually digested. The demand is weak overall. After the price decline, the downstream profit has slightly recovered, but the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see or use it as a short position within the sector [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic start - up slightly declines, and the enterprise profit is at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers and exports is expected to increase, so the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [6]. - Rubber (NR and RU) has been rising strongly, and the overall commodity bullish sentiment is strong. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view is recommended for the medium - term, and for the short - term, a neutral view with quick entry and exit is suggested. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The main logic of the market is the transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. Although it has followed the rebound in the black building materials sector in the short term, it will still face pressure in the future [13]. - In the case of benzene ethylene, the BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side. In the short term, the geopolitical impact has subsided, and the BZN spread may be repaired [16]. - For polyethylene, the EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate downward in July [18]. - For polypropylene, the profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is seasonally weak. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA load is also high, and the inventory is low. It is expected to continue to de - stock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [21][22]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase in July with new installations and few maintenance plans, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The demand is in the off - season and under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [23]. - For ethylene glycol, the overseas and domestic maintenance devices are gradually starting, and the downstream start - up is declining. The inventory reduction in ports is expected to slow down. Although the short - term valuation has upward support, the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.32, a 0.47% decline, at $67.3; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.42, a 0.60% decline, at $69.23; INE main crude oil futures closed up 15.20 yuan, a 2.94% increase, at 532 yuan [1]. - **Data**: European ARA weekly data shows that gasoline inventories increased by 0.53 million barrels to 10.05 million barrels, a 5.52% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.64 million barrels to 13.13 million barrels, a 4.66% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.03 million barrels to 6.50 million barrels, a 0.49% increase; naphtha inventories decreased by 0.52 million barrels to 5.42 million barrels, an 8.79% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.43 million barrels to 6.36 million barrels, a 7.31% increase; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.17 million barrels to 41.46 million barrels, a 0.41% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 18, the 09 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 2365 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of +20 [4]. - **Analysis**: The upstream start - up continues to decline, and the profit slightly drops. The overseas device start - up returns to a medium - high level. The demand is weak overall, and the downstream profit has slightly recovered after the price decline, but the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 18, the 09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 1745 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +55 [6]. - **Analysis**: Domestic start - up slightly declines, and the enterprise profit is at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers starts to pick up as they enter the autumn fertilizer production stage, and exports are still ongoing. The price has support at the bottom, but the upside is restricted by high supply [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have been rising continuously and strongly [8]. - **Analysis**: The overall commodity bullish sentiment is strong. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year. The long - term bullish view is recommended for the medium - term, and for the short - term, a neutral view with quick entry and exit is suggested. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 18 yuan to 4937 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4840 yuan/ton (unchanged), the basis was - 97 yuan/ton (+18), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 119 yuan/ton (-1) [13]. - **Analysis**: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall start - up rate of PVC has increased. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream start - up rate has decreased. The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the market is expected to face pressure [13]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of benzene ethylene have both increased, and the basis has weakened [16]. - **Analysis**: The BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost of pure benzene has increased in supply, and the supply of benzene ethylene has also increased. The port inventory has significantly increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [16]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has increased [18]. - **Analysis**: The EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate downward in July [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has decreased [19]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is seasonally weak. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 68 yuan to 6810 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 839 dollars. The basis was 104 yuan (-15), and the 9 - 1 spread was 140 yuan (+6) [21]. - **Analysis**: The maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA load is also high, and the inventory is low. It is expected to continue to de - stock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [21][22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 30 yuan to 4744 yuan, the East China spot price rose 50 yuan to 4780 yuan, the basis was 29 yuan (+5), and the 9 - 1 spread was 52 yuan (-14) [23]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase in July with new installations and few maintenance plans, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The demand is in the off - season and under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 4 yuan to 4376 yuan, the East China spot price fell 4 yuan to 4433 yuan, the basis was 59 yuan (-3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 16 yuan (-1) [24]. - **Analysis**: The overseas and domestic maintenance devices are gradually starting, and the downstream start - up is declining. The inventory reduction in ports is expected to slow down. Although the short - term valuation has upward support, the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the polyolefin market experienced slight fluctuations, with LLDPE and PP futures showing minor declines of 0.23% and 0.31% respectively, while the pure benzene market saw an increase of 4.80% [1] - LLDPE main contract closed at 7291 yuan/ton and PP main contract at 7069 yuan/ton, with the current spot prices for LLDPE ranging from 7170 to 7650 yuan/ton and PP prices between 7020 to 7220 yuan/ton across different regions [1] - Supply pressures eased slightly due to concentrated maintenance of production facilities, with PE and PP operating rates at 74.68% and 77.42% respectively as of July 10 [1] Group 2 - The article notes that the demand for polyolefins is currently weak due to seasonal factors, with various industries showing stable or declining operating rates [1] - As of July 10, the inventory levels for PE and PP were reported at 15.692 million tons and 5.604 million tons respectively, indicating a slight increase in trade inventory [1] - The cost side is influenced by OPEC+ production plans, which have led to a slight rebound in oil prices, providing some support to the market despite the overall supply-demand balance being loose [1] Group 3 - Pure benzene futures rose to 6183 yuan/ton, while styrene showed a slight increase to 7416 yuan/ton, with spot prices for pure benzene in East China at 5960 yuan/ton [1] - The operating rate for pure benzene was reported at 77.77%, with downstream weighted operating load at 80.73%, indicating a slight increase in production [1] - Inventory levels for pure benzene and styrene showed a decrease and increase respectively, with pure benzene port inventory at 15.9 million tons and styrene at 12.8 million tons as of July 9 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - International crude oil prices are affected by factors such as the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, OPEC+ production increases, and Trump's tariff policies, showing a weak performance on the day but still supported by fundamentals. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, and the current low inventory provides strong support. The effectiveness of PX in the future depends on unexpected factors. PTA is facing new device commissions in the third quarter, with a time mismatch with PX. PTA demand is weakening due to factors such as reduced production by polyester factories, and the inventory relative value is at a five - year high, maintaining a near - strong and far - weak situation. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to price drops. PTA is still supported without significant polyester production cuts, but may weaken if production cuts expand. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain is tilting towards raw materials. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 8, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures was $68.33 per barrel, up 0.59%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $70.15 per barrel, up 0.82%. On July 7, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $577 per ton, down 0.30%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $715.5 per ton, down 0.14%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $841.67 per ton, up 0.24% [1] - **PTA**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,710 yuan per ton, unchanged; the settlement price was 4,710 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,778 yuan per ton, down 0.46%; the settlement price was 4,786 yuan per ton, up 0.17%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,798 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,805 yuan per ton, up 0.31%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $635 per ton on July 7, up 0.32%. The near - far month spread was 76 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the basis was 95 yuan per ton, an increase of 15 yuan [1] - **PX**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.18%; the settlement price was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.33%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 6,868 yuan per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price of PX was 6,725 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $848 per ton, up 0.71%; the spot price of PX (FOB Korea) was $817 per ton on July 7, up 0.25%. The PXN spread was $264.67 per ton on July 7, up 1.44%; the PX - MX spread was $126.17 per ton on July 7, up 2.44%. The basis was 29 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [1] - **PR**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,866 yuan per ton, down 0.10%; the settlement price was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 5,922 yuan per ton, down 0.64%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08%; in the South China market, it was 6,000 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The basis in the East China market was 79 yuan per ton, an increase of 1 yuan; in the South China market, it was 134 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: On July 8, 2025, the CCFEI price indices of polyester fibers such as DTY, POY, FDY68D, and FDY150D remained unchanged. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,700 yuan per ton, down 0.15%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, down 0.26%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [2] Operating Conditions - On July 8, 2025, the operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 78.98%, 80.59%, 87.30%, 71.93%, and 61.22% respectively. The sales - to - production ratios of polyester filament and polyester staple fiber decreased by 7 and 6 percentage points respectively, while that of polyester chips increased by 4 percentage points [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical upgrades for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,710 yuan per ton (up 0.13%), and the daily trading volume being 850,100 lots. PX prices are in a consolidation phase, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,696 yuan per ton (up 0.33%), and the daily trading volume being 180,100 lots. PR follows the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,866 yuan per ton (down 0.03%), and the daily trading volume being 32,800 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - PTA: Last week, PTA device maintenance and restart were concurrent. The current market supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and social inventory is at a relatively low level. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will still fluctuate and adjust following the cost side. After the rapid decline of the spot basis, the bottom - supporting effect may appear. In the short term, the PTA drive is weak, and the price will follow the cost fluctuation. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting results and polyester load fluctuations [5][6]. - MEG: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol oscillated at a low level, and the basis weakened slightly. The ethylene glycol supply - demand structure is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The willingness of traders in the market to hold goods is poor. Due to the weakening supply - demand and the polyester off - season, the ethylene glycol disk is mainly under pressure. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price will be mainly sorted in a low range. Subsequently, pay attention to the return efficiency of the supply side and the change of the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Hints - PTA: - Fundamental: In July, there is not much maintenance, and there is an expectation of the commissioning of the Sanfangxiang PTA device. The supply has increased year - on - year, while the terminal demand is in the off - season atmosphere. The inventory pressure of polyester factories has accumulated, and there is a downward expectation for polyester, which is negative for the PTA spot market. Recently, the spot market negotiation has been relatively light, and the basis is weak. It is expected that the short - term PTA drive is weak, and the price will follow the cost fluctuation. [6] - Basis: The spot price is 4790, the basis of the 09 contract is 80, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared with the previous period, which is bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - Main Position: The net short position is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - MEG: - Fundamental: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol oscillated at a low level, and the basis weakened slightly. The ethylene glycol supply - demand structure is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The willingness of traders in the market to hold goods is poor. Due to the weakening supply - demand and the polyester off - season, the ethylene glycol disk is mainly under pressure. [7] - Basis: The spot price is 4347, the basis of the 09 contract is 68, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 53.2 tons, an increase of 2.73 tons compared with the previous period, which is bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - Main Position: The main net short position is increasing, which is bearish [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Influencing factors: - Bullish: The PX operating rate remains at a relatively high level [8]. - Bearish: Iran confirmed a cease - fire. From the demand side, it is the end of the rush - to - export period and the domestic demand off - season, and the trend of weakening terminal demand is certain. The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Pay attention to the cost side, and after the disk rebounds, pay attention to the upper resistance level [9][10]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory changes [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, total supply, polyester consumption, and inventory changes [12]. - Price Data: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products from July 4 to July 7, 2025, as well as the changes in processing fees and profits [13]. - Inventory Analysis: It shows the inventory changes of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester products from 2021 to 2025 [42][44][51]. - Operating Rate: It shows the operating rate changes of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [53][55][57][59]. - Profit: It shows the profit changes of PTA, MEG, polyester fiber short - fiber, and polyester fiber long - filament from 2022 to 2025 [61][64][66][68][69][70].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, with a mid - term bearish outlook due to OPEC's production increase and potential post - peak season surplus [1][3]. - The asphalt market is likely to have a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, with a high cracking spread [4][5]. - The liquefied petroleum gas market is expected to be weak [7][8]. - The natural gas market in the US may see price increases, while the European market is expected to oscillate [9]. - The fuel oil market suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, and attention should be paid to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot goods for arbitrage [10][11]. - The PX, PTA, and short - fiber markets are expected to have short - term oscillatory consolidation [12][13][17]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be weakly oscillatory [15][16]. - The bottle - grade polyester chip market is expected to oscillate following the raw material end [19][21]. - The styrene market is expected to have high - level oscillations [21][24]. - The plastic PP market should be treated with a mid - short - term bearish mindset [24][25]. - The PVC market has a long - term oversupply pattern, while the caustic soda market is expected to be strongly oscillatory in the short - term [25][28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate or be weakly adjusted [30][33]. - The glass market is expected to oscillate weakly after the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [35][36]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [38][39]. - The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [40][41]. - The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, with a possible supply reduction due to some paper mills' shutdowns for maintenance [43][44]. - The offset - printing paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices [45][46]. - The log market suggests a wait - and - see approach, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [46][48]. - The pulp market suggests a wait - and - see approach for the SP main 09 contract and holding a specific arbitrage position [49][51]. - The natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber markets suggest short - selling opportunities for the RU main 09 contract and holding a specific arbitrage position [51][53]. - The butadiene rubber market suggests a wait - and - see approach for the BR main 08 contract and holding specific arbitrage positions [54][55]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: NYMEX crude futures were closed for the US Independence Day holiday. Brent2509 contract was at $68.30, down $0.50/barrel, a - 0.73% change. China INE crude futures' main contract 2508 rose 2.7 to 506.4 yuan/barrel and fell 5.2 to 501.2 yuan/barrel in the night session. The Brent main - secondary spread was $1.11/barrel [1]. - **Related News**: Israel - Hamas indirect cease - fire talks were fruitless. OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of Arabian Light crude oil in Asia by $1/barrel [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: OPEC's accelerated production increase in August strengthens the expectation of a surplus in the far - month. The near - term market is in a tight - balance pattern, but the mid - term outlook is bearish [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory thinking for unilateral trading, mid - term bearish; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; wait - and - see for options [3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3573 points (- 0.42%) in the night session, and BU2512 closed at 3380 points (- 0.32%) in the night session. Spot prices in different regions varied [4]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different markets were stable. Rainfall affected demand, and refinery inventories were at a medium - low level [4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost side is expected to oscillate. The near - term supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is low year - on - year. The supply elasticity of asphalt from local refineries has increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to rebound; wait - and - see for options [7]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4182 (+ 0.4%) in the night session, and PG2509 closed at 4083 (- 0.61%) in the night session. Spot prices in different regions were reported [7]. - **Related News**: The northern civilian market was stable with minor fluctuations, and the southern market was mostly stable with some weakness [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply decreased, but demand was weak in both the combustion and chemical sectors. The market is expected to be weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak for unilateral trading [9]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 33.469 (- 0.45%), HH closed at 3.409 (+ 0%), and JKM closed at 12.26 (+ 0%) [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreased, but demand was strong, and LNG exports increased. The European market was affected by supply, demand, and weather factors [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips for HH unilateral trading, oscillatory for TTF unilateral trading [10]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2951 (- 0.87%) in the night session, and LU09 closed at 3627 (- 0.25%) in the night session. Singapore paper - cargo market spreads were reported [10]. - **Related News**: India HPCL tendered to sell high - sulfur fuel oil, and there were transactions in the Singapore spot window [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur spot discounts declined, and low - sulfur supply increased. Demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in some regions was strong [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot goods for arbitrage [11][12]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6672 (- 1.01%) on Friday and 6678 (+ 0.09%) in the night session. Spot prices and PXN were reported [12]. - **Related News**: China's PX and PTA operating rates changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [12][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: PX social inventory is low, supply is tight, and downstream demand is expected to increase. It is expected to follow the cost side in the short - term [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [13]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4710 (- 0.76%) on Friday and 4702 (- 0.17%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [13]. - **Related News**: China's PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The basis declined, the supply was stable, and the downstream demand was weak, leading to an expected inventory build - up [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [15]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4277 (- 0.26%) on Friday and 4292 (+ 0.35%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [15]. - **Related News**: The operating rate of ethylene glycol changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Foreign device outages affected supply. The port inventory is low, but there is an expected inventory build - up in August - September. The downstream demand is weak [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weakly oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [17]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6514 (- 0.76%) during the day on Friday and 6530 (+ 0.25%) in the night session. Spot prices were reported [17]. - **Related News**: China's short - fiber operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [17][18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some short - fiber plants reduced production. The processing margin expanded, but the downstream demand was weak [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; short PTA and long PF for arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [18]. Bottle - Grade Polyester Chip - **Market Review**: PR2509 main contract closed at 5870 (- 0.41%) on Friday and 5864 (- 0.10%) in the night session. Spot prices were reported [19]. - **Related News**: The operating rate of bottle - grade polyester chips decreased. The export quotes of some factories were adjusted [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The processing margin strengthened, and some plants planned to reduce production. It is expected to oscillate following the raw material end [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 main contract closed at 7340 (+ 0.59%) during the day on Friday and 7393 (+ 0.72%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [21][23]. - **Related News**: The operating rates of styrene and its downstream products changed [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of pure benzene is expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply increased, and downstream demand was weak. The price is mainly guided by the cost side [23][24]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillations for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [24]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE market prices were mainly stable, and PP market prices in different regions were adjusted [24][25]. - **Related News**: The maintenance ratios of PE and PP changed [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is a large production capacity release pressure in the third quarter, and the terminal demand is weak. The strategy is to sell on rallies [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mid - short - term bearish for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices were slightly adjusted, and caustic soda spot prices were stable in some regions and decreased in others [25][28]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine decreased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Caustic soda inventory is low, and it is expected to be strongly oscillatory in the short - term [28][29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish for PVC in the mid - term; strongly oscillatory for caustic soda in the short - term; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1174 (- 0.8%) and remained unchanged in the night session. Spot prices changed [30][31]. - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increased, production decreased, and profits were negative [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market has a pattern of oversupply. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory or weakly adjusted for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [34]. Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures 09 contract closed at 1026 (- 1.25%) and 1029 (+ 0.29%) in the night session. Spot prices changed [35]. - **Related News**: Glass production and inventory changed. The profit of different fuel - based glass production varied [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate weakly after the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the rise - fall or oscillation of glass prices; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures market oscillated and closed at 2401 (- 0.58%). Spot prices in different regions were reported [38]. - **Related News**: The MTO device utilization rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: International device operating rates increased, import is expected to recover, and domestic supply is abundant. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell call options [39][40]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures rose and then fell, closing at 1735 (+ 0.12%). Spot prices were slightly increased [41]. - **Related News**: Urea daily production and operating rate increased [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to export policies [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [41][43]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices were stable in the mainstream and increased locally [44]. - **Related News**: The production, inventory, and shipment of corrugated paper changed. The price of waste yellow - board paper was stable [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a weak pattern. Supply may decrease due to some paper mills' shutdowns for maintenance, and demand is weak [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report. Offset - Printing Paper - **Market Review**: Offset - printing paper prices were mostly stable, and some local prices decreased [45]. - **Related News**: Production, inventory, and operating rates changed. The prices of wood pulp were stable [45][46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Paper mills have a strong willingness to support prices [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report. Log - **Market Review**: Log spot prices were stable. The 9 - month contract price increased slightly [46]. - **Related News**: The number of pre - arriving ships and the arrival volume of New Zealand logs increased. Log inventory changed [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream market is weak. Attention should be paid to the details of log delivery [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; wait - and - see for options [48]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The pulp futures market oscillated slightly. Spot prices of different types of pulp were reported [49]. - **Related News**: Brazil launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese decorative paper [50]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pulp inventory changed. The market is expected to be affected by inventory and demand [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP main 09 contract; hold a specific arbitrage position [51]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - **Market Review**: RU main 09 contract closed at 13935 (- 0.50%), NR main 09 contract closed at 11990 (- 0.79%), and other related prices were reported [51]. - **Related News**: India plans to improve the quality of natural rubber and increase production [52]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory of RU decreased, and inventory of NR increased. The market is affected by supply, demand, and salary factors [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell the RU main 09 contract; hold a specific arbitrage position; wait - and - see for options [53]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR main 09 contract closed at 10965 (- 2.10%), and other related prices were reported [54]. - **Related News**: India plans to improve the quality of natural rubber and increase production [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: BR

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current geopolitical risks have gradually subsided, but the short - term decline in oil prices has been significant. It is believed that the current oil prices have reached a reasonable range. Short positions can still be held, but it is not advisable to chase short positions [2]. - For methanol, it has returned to its own fundamentals. The reality is still low inventory, and the spot performance is relatively strong. The valuation of methanol spot itself is relatively high, and the downstream profits have been significantly compressed. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the supply is starting to decline, and the demand for compound fertilizers in the autumn will gradually start. Exports are expected to continue. It is believed that the supply - demand situation of urea may improve slightly, and the short - term downward space for prices is relatively limited. One can pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [5]. - For rubber, there is a market expectation of storing 50,000 tons of smoked sheet rubber. NR and RU have strengthened in a volatile manner. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, conduct short - term operations, and enter and exit quickly. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][10]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is still inventory reduction and weakening. The fundamentals are under pressure, and it is expected to operate weakly in the short term [10]. - For styrene, the cost side is relatively loose, the supply side is increasing in inventory, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season. It is expected that the styrene price may fluctuate downward [13]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to remain volatile [15]. - For polypropylene, the profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand side is expected to decline seasonally. It is expected that the polypropylene price will be bearish in June [16]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. After the geopolitical situation eases and risks are released, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [18][19]. - For PTA, in July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight reduction in inventory, and the processing fee is supported. After the geopolitical situation eases and risks are released, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory reduction in ports is expected to gradually slow down. The fundamentals are weak, and in the short term, it may be strong due to the unexpected shutdown of Saudi plants. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies, but beware of ethane import risks [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.56, or 0.86%, to $65.53; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.35, or 0.52%, to $67.28; INE main crude oil futures rose 1.10 yuan, or 0.22%, to 499.4 yuan [2]. - **Data**: At the Fujairah port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.45 million barrels to 7.61 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 5.56%; diesel inventory decreased by 0.54 million barrels to 1.63 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 24.94%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.28 million barrels to 9.13 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.03%; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.27 million barrels to 18.37 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 6.49% [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 1, the 09 contract rose 3 yuan/ton to 2384 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 270 yuan/ton, and the basis was +136 [3]. - **Analysis**: It has returned to its own fundamentals with low inventory and strong spot performance. The downstream profits have been compressed, and it is expected that the port will not accumulate a large amount of inventory before the 09 contract. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 1, the 09 contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 1721 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, and the basis was +39 [5]. - **Analysis**: The number of maintenance devices has increased, and domestic demand has weakened. Exports are continuing, and port inventory is rising. It is expected that the supply - demand situation will improve slightly, and one can pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [5]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: There is a market expectation of storing 50,000 tons of smoked sheet rubber, and NR and RU have strengthened in a volatile manner [8]. - **Analysis**: Bulls are optimistic due to the expected production reduction, while bears are pessimistic due to the poor macro - outlook and weak demand. The tire start - up rate has increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations [8][9][10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 68 yuan to 4821 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton), the basis was - 81 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 93 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton) [10]. - **Analysis**: The cost side has some upward pressure, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the exports are expected to weaken. The market is expected to operate weakly [10]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price have both fallen, and the basis has strengthened [12]. - **Analysis**: The cost side is relatively loose, the supply side is increasing in inventory, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season. It is expected that the styrene price may fluctuate downward [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen. The main contract closed at 7249 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was 51 yuan/ton, weakening by 3 yuan/ton [15]. - **Analysis**: The short - term contradiction has shifted, and the price is expected to remain volatile [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen. The main contract closed at 7044 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis was 176 yuan/ton, strengthening by 26 yuan/ton [16]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has rebounded, and the demand side is expected to decline seasonally. It is expected that the price will be bearish in June [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 2 yuan to 6794 yuan, the PX CFR fell 13 dollars to 861 dollars, and the basis was 305 yuan (- 110 yuan), and the 9 - 1 spread was 160 yuan (- 34 yuan) [18]. - **Analysis**: After the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 4800 yuan, the East China spot price fell 50 yuan to 4980 yuan, the basis was 175 yuan (- 49 yuan), and the 9 - 1 spread was 126 yuan (- 18 yuan) [20]. - **Analysis**: In July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight reduction in inventory, and the processing fee is supported. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 4273 yuan, the East China spot price fell 6 yuan to 4328 yuan, the basis was 69 yuan (+ 5 yuan), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 21 yuan (+ 6 yuan) [21]. - **Analysis**: The inventory reduction in ports is expected to gradually slow down. The fundamentals are weak, and in the short term, it may be strong due to the unexpected shutdown of Saudi plants. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Polyolefins - PP and PE show a supply contraction trend, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations, leading to continuous inventory reduction. However, there is still overall inventory pressure. In the short term, pay attention to the support from inventory reduction. For PP in the medium term, consider short - selling when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [2] Urea - The core driver of the urea market is the resonance of export policies and international events. The secondary drivers are short - term supply contraction and cost reduction. The market is expected to stabilize after a decline, and it is necessary to track factors such as Indian tender results, Chinese quota policy changes, and port shipping progress [4] Crude Oil - Recent oil prices have weakened due to the decline in risk premiums, and the market is weighing the potential OPEC+ production increase plan, the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiation, and the uncertainty of US tariff conflicts. The supply is expected to be loose, and the oil price is likely to fluctuate widely in the next week. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7] Chlor - alkali - For caustic soda, the short - term decline driver is insufficient, and the market may fluctuate repeatedly. In the medium term, there may be new production capacity, and the price upside is limited. For PVC, the short - term contradiction is not intensified, but the over - supply problem is prominent in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term [12] Methanol - The methanol market shows a differentiation between ports and the inland. The upside and downside of methanol prices are limited, and interval trading is recommended [29] Styrene - The pure benzene market is weak, and the styrene market is stable. There is pressure on the supply - demand margin of styrene, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for styrene driven by raw material factors [34] Polyester - PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. PTA is supported by raw materials but has limited self - driving force. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose, and the price is expected to be weak. Short - fiber has weak supply - demand, and bottle - chip supply - demand may improve [39] Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: L2601, PP2601, and PP2509 prices decreased, while L2509 increased slightly. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased [2] - **Supply and Demand**: PP and PE supply contracted, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations. The overall inventory decreased [2] Urea - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some futures contracts and the spread between contracts changed. The long - short positions of the top 20 traders and the long - short ratio also changed [4] - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea decreased, and the plant and port inventories decreased. The production start - up rate decreased [4] Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different varieties and different months also changed [7] - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC+ may increase production in August, and the market is concerned about the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiation and US tariff conflicts [7] Chlor - alkali - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed, and the spreads between contracts and the basis also changed [11] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of caustic soda and PVC production increased, and the downstream start - up rate of caustic soda and PVC products changed. The inventory of caustic soda and PVC decreased or increased slightly [11][12] Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures contracts and the spread between contracts changed. The basis and regional spreads also changed [29] - **Supply and Demand**: The methanol market is differentiated between ports and the inland. The port may face inventory pressure, while the inland may see reduced supply pressure in July [29] Styrene - **Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene upstream raw materials, spot, and futures changed, and the basis and spread between contracts also changed [31][32] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of the styrene industry chain changed, and the inventory of some products increased [34] Polyester - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials, downstream polyester products, and related spreads in the polyester industry chain changed [39] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of the polyester industry chain changed, and the supply - demand situation of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip is different [39]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the black building materials market, covering steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, glass, and soda ash [1][2][3] - The overall sentiment in the black building materials market has improved recently, but the fundamentals still point downward in the long - term [3][10] - Attention should be paid to policy trends, actual demand recovery, and cost support in the future [3] Group 2: Steel Price and Position - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 2995 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (0.739%) from the previous trading day. The position decreased by 48966 lots to 2.142812 million lots. The Tianjin spot price was flat at 3160 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3080 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3121 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.580%). The position increased by 14041 lots to 1.52471 million lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai increased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2] Market Analysis - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good last week, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate. The special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal will still boost the demand for machinery, but the intensity may decrease compared with the first half of the year [3] - The apparent demand for rebar was basically the same as last week, and the inventory reduction slowed down due to the increase in production. The production of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulated slightly [3] - The demand in the off - season remained weak, and the inventory was at a relatively healthy level. There was no obvious contradiction in the static fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies, the policy trends of the Politburo meeting in July, the recovery rhythm of terminal demand, and the cost support for product prices [3] Group 3: Iron Ore Price and Position - The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 716.50 yuan/ton, up 1.56% (+11.00), and the position increased by 25675 lots to 679,900 lots. The weighted position was 1.0966 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 708 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 33.24 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.43% [5] Supply and Demand - The recent iron ore shipment volume increased, with a significant increase in Brazil's end - of - season rush and a slight increase in Australia's shipment. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries decreased significantly. The near - end arrival volume remained at a relatively high level [6] - The daily average hot metal production was 242.29 tons. There were both blast furnace maintenance and复产, which were normal operations. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased slightly, and the overall demand was neutral [6] - The port dredging volume and port inventory both increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased slightly. The hot metal production remained stable, and the weak performance of ore prices was mainly reflected in the continuous narrowing of the basis. The single - sided absolute price fluctuated in a low - volatility range [6] Group 4: Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Price and Trend - On June 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.11% at 5670 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5620 yuan/ton, with a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the futures [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.26% at 5370 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5470 yuan/ton, with a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the futures [8] - The manganese silicon price continued to rebound slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 56 yuan/ton or 1.00%. It broke away from the downward trend line since February, but the strength was weak. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton [9] - The ferrosilicon price also continued to rebound this week, with a weekly increase of 66 yuan/ton or 1.24%. It was approaching the downward trend line since February and encountered resistance at the upper level. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 5500 yuan/ton [9] Market Outlook - Although the short - term market sentiment has pushed up the prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the fundamentals still point downward, with an oversupply pattern, weakening future demand, and potential cost reduction [10][11] - It is not recommended to buy at the bottom prematurely due to the "low valuation". Instead, pay attention to the downward risk and seize hedging opportunities [10][11] Group 5: Industrial Silicon Price and Trend - On June 27, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 3.82% at 8025 yuan/ton. The spot price of 553 in East China was 8100 yuan/ton, with a premium of 70 yuan/ton over the futures, and the 421 price was 8700 yuan/ton, with a discount of 130 yuan/ton after conversion [13] - This week, the industrial silicon price rebounded significantly, with a weekly increase of 625 yuan/ton or 8.45%. It was still in the downward trend since November 2024, and the short - term rebound continued. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 8200 yuan/ton [13] Market Outlook - The market sentiment has improved, and funds are looking for low - priced and "story - telling" varieties. However, the current market heat is lower than that in April 2024 [14] - The industrial silicon market still faces the problems of oversupply and insufficient demand. The short - term price rebound is due to the rumor of a large factory's production cut, but the supply reduction is difficult to maintain in the long - term. Hedging opportunities can be seized during the rebound [14] Group 6: Glass and Soda Ash Glass - The spot price in Shahe was 1130 yuan, flat, and the price in Central China was 1030 yuan, also flat. The spot sales were okay, and some production lines were restarted [16] - As of June 26, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.216 million weight boxes, down 0.96% from the previous period, and the inventory days decreased by 0.3 days to 30.5 days. The net position was mainly shifted between near - and far - month contracts. The real estate demand was not expected to be significantly boosted, and the futures price was expected to be weak [16] Soda Ash - The spot price increased by 13 yuan to 1223 yuan, and the enterprise prices were basically unchanged. The number of maintenance enterprises was small [16] - As of June 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7669 million tons, up 0.63%. The demand for soda ash continued to decline, and the supply - demand relationship improved marginally. The medium - term supply was loose, and the inventory pressure was still large. The futures price was expected to be weak [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Crude oil is in consolidation. The oil price has returned to fundamental pricing, with a consumption peak season against an increase in supply, leading to price consolidation. [1][3] - LPG is expected to rebound with a bearish bias. Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a decline in the cost side and putting pressure on liquefied petroleum gas. [1] - L is in a bearish rebound. The inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream has significantly decreased, and the cost side of coking coal has rebounded. [1] - PP is in a bearish rebound. The spot market has weak trading volume, and it will follow the cost rebound in the short term. [1] - PVC is in a bearish rebound. The cost support has improved due to a sharp rebound in coking coal at night, but the supply side is under pressure. [1] - PX is bullish. Both domestic and foreign PX plants are operating at a relatively high load, and there is an increase in both supply and demand. [1] - PTA is bullish. The restart of PTA maintenance devices and the launch of new production capacity are expected to increase supply - side pressure, but the cost side still has support. [1] - Ethylene glycol (MEG) is bearish. The device load has increased, but the demand side is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose. [1] - Glass is in a weak rebound. Domestic macro - policies have boosted the market, and the supply side has slightly decreased, but the medium - term demand contraction has not been alleviated. [2] - Soda ash is in an interval rebound. The weekly operating rate and production have decreased, but the high supply and high inventory limit the upside space. [2] - Caustic soda is in an interval rebound. The upstream maintains high - load production, but the demand support is insufficient. [2] - Methanol is expected to rebound with a bearish bias. The comprehensive operating load is still relatively high, and the demand feedback is negative. [2] - Urea is short - term bullish. Although the supply side pressure is large, the agricultural demand peak season and exports are still worth looking forward to. [2] - Asphalt is bearish. Geopolitical tensions have eased, and it has fallen with the cost side in the short term. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **行情回顾**: Overnight international oil prices continued to consolidate. WTI rose 0.49%, Brent rose 0.39%, and SC fell 0.65%. [3] - **基本逻辑**: The core driver was the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran announced by Trump on June 23, which led to a sharp drop in oil prices and the extrusion of geopolitical risk premiums. In terms of supply, Guyana's oil production increased from 611,000 barrels per day in April to 667,000 barrels per day in May. In terms of demand, OPEC's latest monthly report showed that the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 was 1.29 million barrels per day, lower than 1.3 million barrels per day in May. In terms of inventory, as of the week ending June 20, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels, strategic crude oil reserves increased by 200,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 4.1 million barrels. [3] - **策略推荐**: In the medium - to - long term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and the expansion cycle of OPEC +, the oil supply will be in surplus, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short term, the oil price will be weak and volatile. The strategy is to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [490 - 520]. [3] LPG - **行情回顾**: On June 26, the PG main contract closed at 4,265 yuan/ton, up 0.66% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged from the previous period. [5] - **基本逻辑**: The core driver is the decline in geopolitical risks, and the cost side of oil prices has adjusted after the extrusion of geopolitical premiums. As of June 26, the PDH device profit was - 586 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton month - on - month. The supply of liquefied gas increased, and the demand side showed mixed trends in different sectors. The inventory in refineries and ports increased. [6] - **策略推荐**: In the medium - to - long term, the supply of upstream crude oil is greater than demand, and the central value is expected to continue to decline. The current ratio of LPG to crude oil is at a high level, and the valuation of LPG is high. In the short term, although there is a rebound on the daily line, the upward momentum is weak. The strategy is to short with a light position or buy put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4200 - 4300]. [7] L (Polyethylene) - **基本逻辑**: In the short term, as the situation in the Middle East eases, the international crude oil price has fallen, weakening the cost support for polyethylene. The supply is expected to increase in the short term due to the restart of some previously maintained devices, while the demand is in the off - season. The inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased, and the cost side of coking coal has rebounded. The North China basis has turned negative, and the willingness to replenish inventory in the off - season is insufficient. [9] - **策略推荐**: The strategy is to be long in the short term and short in the long term. L is expected to be in the range of [7250 - 7400]. [9] PP (Polypropylene) - **基本逻辑**: The cost decline has dampened market sentiment, and the trading atmosphere in the market is weak. The supply - side device maintenance has increased, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. The spot market has weak trading volume, and it will follow the cost rebound in the short term. However, the supply will be under pressure in the medium - to - long term due to the high pressure of device production capacity launch in the third quarter. [11] - **策略推荐**: Treat it as a short - term rebound, and short on rebounds. PP is expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7200]. [11] PVC - **基本逻辑**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to fluctuations in the crude oil market and affected the PVC market. The cost support has improved due to a sharp rebound in coking coal at night, but the supply side is under pressure due to the planned launch of new production capacity in the future. The domestic demand is in the seasonal off - season, while the export still has support. [13] - **策略推荐**: Be bearish on rebounds and do not short in the short term. V is expected to be in the range of [4850 - 5000]. [13] PX - **行情回顾**: On June 20, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,050 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 7,076 yuan/ton (- 18). The 9 - 1 month spread was 232 yuan/ton (- 40), and the basis in East China was - 26 yuan/ton (+ 18). [14] - **基本逻辑**: The profit of PX has continued to improve, and both domestic and foreign plants are operating at a relatively high load. The PXN spread is 270.9 dollars/ton (+ 8.5). The demand side of PTA is expected to improve, and the inventory is decreasing. [15] - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low prices. PX is expected to be in the range of [6680 - 6790]. [15] PTA - **行情回顾**: On June 20, the PTA price in East China was 5,280 yuan/ton (+ 105), and the TA09 contract closed at 4,978 yuan/ton (- 10). The TA9 - 1 month spread was 180 yuan/ton (- 26), and the basis in East China was 302 yuan/ton (+ 115). [16] - **基本逻辑**: The short - term supply - side pressure is expected to increase due to the restart of maintenance devices and the launch of new production capacity. The demand side is expected to weaken as the downstream polyester starts to maintain a high level, but the terminal weaving start - up load continues to decline. The inventory is generally low, and the cost side has support. [17] - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low prices. TA is expected to be in the range of [4740 - 4820]. [17] MEG - **行情回顾**: On June 20, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,580 yuan/ton (+ 33), and the EG09 contract closed at 4,501 yuan/ton (- 38). The EG9 - 1 month spread was 14 yuan/ton (- 9), and the East China basis was 79 yuan/ton (+ 71). [18] - **基本逻辑**: The device load has increased, but the arrival volume and import volume are low compared to the same period. The demand side is expected to weaken as the downstream polyester starts to maintain a high level, but the terminal weaving start - up load continues to decline. The inventory is decreasing. [19] - **策略推荐**: Be bearish. EG is expected to be in the range of [4270 - 4320]. [20] Glass - **行情回顾**: The spot market quotation is stable, the futures market is in a weak rebound, the basis has expanded, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [21] - **基本逻辑**: Domestically, macro - policies have boosted the market, and the supply side has slightly decreased. However, the medium - term demand contraction has not been alleviated. The current coal - based production still has profits, and it is difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price and is lower than the coal - based cost. [22] - **策略推荐**: The futures price is expected to have a weak rebound, with the 5 - day moving average providing weak support. FG is expected to be in the range of [1010 - 1030]. [22] Soda Ash - **行情回顾**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been raised, the futures market has stabilized, the main - contract basis has narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the number of effective forecasts has decreased. [24] - **基本逻辑**: Recently, some soda ash plants have reduced their loads, resulting in a slight reduction in overall supply. However, the industry's operating rate is still at a high level, and the pressure of oversupply in the later period remains. The terminal consumption of soda ash is mediocre, and the glass futures price is consolidating at a low level, providing limited support to the upstream. The manufacturer's inventory has continued to accumulate. [25] - **策略推荐**: It is expected to have an interval rebound. SA is expected to be in the range of [1175 - 1205]. [25] Caustic Soda - **行情回顾**: The spot price of caustic soda is stable, the futures market has a weak rebound at a low level, the basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [27] - **基本逻辑**: On the supply side, due to good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream plants maintain high - load production, and there is an expectation of new production capacity coming on - stream in June - July, increasing the supply pressure. However, there is also an expectation of inventory reduction during the summer maintenance season. On the demand side, the main downstream, alumina, has a slight decline in start - up and a reduction in metallurgical profits, and the non - aluminum demand is still weak. The cost support has shifted downwards. [28] - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to the weak rebound driven by inventory reduction during maintenance. Short - position holders should reduce their positions. SH is expected to be in the range of [2300 - 2350]. [2] Methanol - **行情回顾**: On June 20, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,664 yuan/ton (- 12), and the main 09 contract closed at 2,529 yuan/ton (- 14). The East China basis was 135 yuan/ton (+ 2), the port basis was 221 yuan/ton (- 1), the MA9 - 1 month spread was 18 yuan/ton (- 10), and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit increased to 32 dollars/ton (+ 5). [29] - **基本逻辑**: The methanol plant is under maintenance, but the comprehensive operating load is still relatively high. There is negative feedback on the demand side as the load of coastal MTO plants has decreased, and the order volume of upstream methanol enterprises has declined. The valuation is high, and the social inventory has increased. [2] - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short the 09 contract and go long on the 01 contract. MA is expected to be in the range of [2380 - 2440]. [2] Urea - **基本逻辑**: The restart of maintenance devices has led to a high daily production, and the supply - side pressure is large. The industrial demand is weak, but the agricultural demand peak season is approaching, and the fertilizer export growth rate is fast. There is still cost support. [2] - **策略推荐**: Hold previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the opportunity to short at high prices. UR is expected to be in the range of [1710 - 1750]. [2] Asphalt - **基本逻辑**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the oil price has extruded the geopolitical premium, causing it to decline with the cost side in the short term. The supply has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south". [2] - **策略推荐**: Short with a light position. BU is expected to be in the range of [3500 - 3600]. [2]