Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade data for the first seven months of 2025 exceeded expectations, with total import and export value reaching 25.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [3][4]. Group 1: Trade Performance - Exports grew by 7.3%, while imports declined by 1.6%, with the decline narrowing by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3]. - In July, imports and exports increased by 6.7% and 8% respectively, with imports rising by 4.8% for two consecutive months [4]. - The "export grabbing" phenomenon is intensifying globally, with China's exports to the EU, South Korea, and Taiwan increasing by 9.2%, 4.6%, and 19.2% respectively in July [6][8]. Group 2: Market Diversification - China's trade diversification efforts are yielding results, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN, the EU, Africa, and Central Asia, with respective increases of 9.4%, 3.9%, 17.2%, and 16.3% [8]. - The number of trading partners with a trade scale exceeding 50 billion yuan increased to 61, up by five from the previous year [9]. - Exports to ASEAN grew by 13.5%, while exports to India and Africa increased by 13.4% and 24.5% respectively [9]. Group 3: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. has imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on multiple countries, leading to a halt in "transshipment" business from Vietnam due to increased scrutiny [10]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is causing many Chinese companies to reassess their international strategies and production layouts [10]. Group 4: Industry Trends - General trade imports and exports grew by 2.1%, accounting for 64% of total foreign trade, while processing trade increased by 6.3%, making up 17.9% [12]. - High-value-added products, such as electromechanical products, are maintaining rapid growth, indicating resilience in the face of challenges [12][13]. - The textile and apparel sector saw a cumulative export growth of 0.6%, with a notable increase in integrated circuits by 20.5% [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Export growth is expected to decline in August, with potential downward pressure on exports due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade [13]. - The IMF has raised its global economic growth forecast slightly, but ongoing uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical tensions pose risks to economic stability [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's export in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year, and import increased by 4.1%. The "rush to export" and price increase supported the export to exceed expectations, while the price increase was the main driver for the import growth [3]. - In the short term, the "rush to export" logic may be weakening, and the export in August may decline. In the medium term, the uncertainty of tariff policies may decrease, and the support from quantity and price to export may decline, with the pressure of export slowdown gradually emerging [3]. - For imports, the CRB increase in August is still at a high level, which is expected to support the import reading. Attention should be paid to the repair elasticity of domestic demand, import volume, and price [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Export: The re - warming of entrepot trade in July under the uncertainty of tariff negotiations - **Overall situation**: In July, the export growth rate was +7.2%, rising for two consecutive months. The "rush to export" logic was strong due to the uncertainty of tariff negotiations, and the export price increase also contributed to the high export growth from June to July. However, the "rush to export" logic is weakening, and the export may decline in August [3][20]. - **By commodity type** - Labor - intensive consumer goods: The year - on - year export declined to - 3.1%. The reasons may be the pre - Christmas rush to export in June and the "price - for - volume" strategy [1][22]. - Intermediate goods: The export growth rate continued to rise, with a combined year - on - year increase of 18.6% for five types, driving the export growth by 2.1 percentage points. It is expected to remain the main support for exports [1][26]. - Electronic products: The drag on export increased. The combined year - on - year decline of mobile phones and laptops was - 1.3%, and the contribution to export was - 18.1% [29]. - Automobiles: The driving effect on export remained high, with a year - on - year increase of 18.6% in export value, driving the export growth by 0.6 percentage points [29]. - **By country** - Developed economies: The year - on - year export growth rates to the US, EU, and Japan were - 21.7%, +9.3%, and +2.5% respectively. The EU's export weight continued to be higher than the same period, showing a substitution effect [2][34]. - ASEAN: The export share decreased, with a year - on - year increase of 16.6% in July, a slight slowdown of 0.4 pct [2][34]. - Latin America: The proportion rebounded, with a year - on - year increase of 7.7% in export in July ( - 2.1% in June), and the share rose to 8.3%, reaching a new high since August 2024. Entrepot trade heated up [2][34]. 3.2 Import: Price increase drives the further upward movement of imports - **Overall situation**: In July, the import amount increased by 4.1% year - on - year, rising further after turning positive in June. The price increase was the main driving force, and the CRB spot index had a good synchronicity with the import amount growth rate [2][38]. - **By commodity type** - Upstream bulk commodities: The import drag narrowed, with a combined year - on - year decline of 7.9% in the import amount of five types of upstream bulk commodities, which was 3.5 pct higher than that in June [39]. - Intermediate goods: The growth rate continued to rise, with a combined year - on - year increase of 9.5% in the import of four types, driving the import growth by 1.9% [39]. - Downstream consumer goods: The drag also narrowed, with a combined year - on - year decline of - 15.6% in the import of three types of consumer goods ( - 21.0% in June) [39].

海关总署8月7日发布数据显示，按美元计价，7月份，我国进出口总值5453.2亿美元，其中，出口3217.8 亿美元，同比增长7.2%，环比下降1%；进口2235.4亿美元，同比增长4.1%，环比增长6.2%。 | | 2025年7月全国进出口总值表(美元值/单位:亿美元) | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 7月 | 同比增速/% | | 进出口总值 | 5453. 2 | 5.9 | | 出口总值 | 3217.8 | 7.2 | | 进口总值 | 2235.4 | 4.1 | | 贸易顺差 | 982. 4 | | 数据来源：海关总署 "7月出口同比增速继续加快，好于市场普遍预期。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，这主要源于当 月美国关税政策多变，各类"抢出口""转出口"效应进一步升级等原因。当月我国对欧盟、韩国及共 建"一带一路"国家出口增速加快，对东盟出口继续保持两位数高增，这抵消了我国对美出口同比降幅扩 大的影响，带动整体出口增速处于较高水平。 出口具备强大优势和韧性 展望下一阶段外贸形势，刘涛分析称，我国出口自身具备强大优势和韧性，包括外贸出口中美国市场占 比持续降低，我国具备 ...

Group 1: Trade Data Overview - In July 2025, exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up from 5.9% in June, while imports rose by 4.1%, compared to 1.1% previously[2] - The trade surplus reached $98.24 billion, an increase of $12.765 billion compared to the same month last year[2] - The rebound in export growth was primarily supported by the EU, ASEAN, and other regions, despite a decline in direct exports to the US[2] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The July export growth exceeded expectations, rising 1.3 percentage points from June and surpassing the Wind consensus forecast of 5.79%[2] - The month-on-month export change was -1.0%, slightly below the four-year average of -0.4%[2] - Factors contributing to the export surge included "rush exports" ahead of the August 1 tariff exemptions and a 40% export tariff on transshipments[2] Group 3: Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU rose by 1.65 percentage points to 9.24% year-on-year in July, while exports to the US, ASEAN, and Japan saw declines[2] - The decline in exports to the US was significant, dropping 5.54 percentage points to -21.67%[2] - Other regions showed a notable increase in export growth, rising from 7.78% to 12.56% year-on-year[2] Group 4: Import Trends - July imports increased by 6.2% month-on-month, outperforming the four-year average of -1.24%[2] - Key commodities like copper and related products saw strong import growth, while traditional demand indicators like iron ore and steel remained in negative growth[2] - Integrated circuits maintained double-digit growth, likely influenced by easing US-China trade relations[2] Group 5: Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations and ongoing uncertainties in US-China trade relations[2] - The overall outlook suggests a possibility of export growth slowing down, but the decline may be gradual due to various supportive factors[2]

Export Performance - In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 5.4% and up from the previous month's growth of 5.9%[5] - The export growth was supported by a low base effect from the previous year, where July 2024 exports were at their lowest level since 2001, with a month-on-month decline of 2.3%[6] - Exports to ASEAN countries accounted for 17% of total exports, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 16%[12] Import Performance - Imports in July rose by 4.1% year-on-year, significantly surpassing market expectations of a 1.0% decline and marking the highest level since July of the previous year[22] - The increase in imports was primarily driven by machinery and high-tech products, with integrated circuit imports growing by approximately 13%[22] - Despite a continued decline in crude oil imports, the total value of crude oil imports saw a reduced year-on-year decline due to quantity recovery[22] Trade Balance - China's trade surplus in July was recorded at $98.24 billion, lower than the expected $105 billion and down from $114.75 billion in the previous month[5] - The trade balance reflects the ongoing challenges in the external trade environment, particularly with the U.S. market, where exports saw a year-on-year decline of approximately 22%[12] Market Outlook - The report indicates potential pressures on future export growth due to the uncertain trade environment and the impact of new U.S. tariffs[9] - The global manufacturing PMI for July was at 49.3, indicating a slight decline and suggesting a slowdown in global manufacturing recovery[9]

Group 1: Export Trends - July exports exceeded expectations due to underestimated "export rush" effects, with a significant low base from last year contributing to this growth[5] - The global manufacturing PMI shifted from expansion to contraction in July, indicating weaker global manufacturing demand, which contradicts the export growth logic[5] - China's exports to non-US regions showed steady growth, with a cumulative growth rate of 9.2% as of July, outperforming the -12.4% decline in exports to the US[16] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "export rush" effect is expected to contribute to exports from August to November, but its impact is anticipated to weaken over time[26] - The contribution of non-major countries to export growth was greater than that of major countries, with non-major regions increasing their contribution by 1.1 percentage points[22] - Exports to Belt and Road Initiative countries have outperformed total exports, with a cumulative growth rate improvement of 0.8 percentage points[22] Group 3: Risks and Future Outlook - The potential expiration of the 24% tariff on China in Q4 could create a weak export window, highlighting the importance of non-US markets for long-term support[27] - Risks include the possibility of insufficient growth policies and lower-than-expected global economic conditions[29]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the acceleration of regional integration cooperation in response to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, with China's foreign trade data exceeding expectations amid these changes [1][2]. Trade Performance - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, marking a 3.5% year-on-year increase, with exports growing by 7.3% and imports declining by 1.6% [1]. - In July, China's imports and exports grew by 6.7% and 8% respectively, with imports increasing by 4.8%, marking two consecutive months of growth [1]. Export Dynamics - The "export grabbing" and "transit export" effects are driving the acceleration in July's export growth, as companies rush to ship goods before the end of the 90-day tariff transition period [2][3]. - China's exports to the U.S. fell by 21.7% year-on-year in July, a decline that impacted overall export growth by 3.3 percentage points [2]. Trade Diversification - China's exports to the EU, South Korea, and Taiwan saw significant growth in July, with increases of 9.2%, 4.6%, and 19.2% respectively, indicating a shift towards diversified markets [3][4]. - Exports to ASEAN countries maintained a high growth rate of 16.6%, which helped offset the decline in U.S. exports and supported overall export growth [3]. Trade with Belt and Road Countries - Trade with Belt and Road countries grew by 5.5%, with exports to these nations accounting for about half of China's total exports [4]. - In the first seven months, exports to India and Africa increased by 13.4% and 24.5% respectively, showcasing the effectiveness of China's Belt and Road Initiative in mitigating external shocks [4]. Impact of U.S. Tariffs - Starting August 7, the U.S. imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on various countries, leading to a halt in "transit" business for many Chinese companies as they await clarity on future tariff policies [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs is prompting companies to consider long-term capacity planning and internationalization strategies [5]. Industry Trends - In the first seven months, general trade grew by 2.1%, while processing trade increased by 6.3%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [6]. - The textile and apparel sector saw a cumulative export growth of 0.6%, while high-tech products like integrated circuits grew by 20.5%, reflecting a trend towards higher value-added exports [7]. Future Outlook - Experts predict a potential decline in export growth in August due to the impact of high U.S. tariffs on global trade, with expectations for targeted financial support for struggling foreign trade enterprises [7][8]. - The IMF has raised its global economic growth forecast slightly, but ongoing trade policy uncertainty poses risks to economic stability [8].

Export Performance - In July 2025, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up from 5.9% in the previous month[2] - Imports also rose by 4.1% year-on-year in July, compared to 1.1% previously[2] - The growth in exports is supported by indirect exports from countries like South Korea (+5.9%) and Vietnam (+17.7%) in July[2] Demand Dynamics - The demand from non-US regions may not be sustainable post-tariff implementation, as the US is set to enforce reciprocal tariffs starting August 7, 2025[2] - The resilience of demand from non-US regions is questioned, as historical trends show that a decline in US demand typically leads to reduced demand in regions like ASEAN and Africa[3] Structural Insights - The positive contribution to July's exports primarily came from raw materials, automobiles, and components, with significant contributions of 1.4, 2.6, and 1.9 percentage points respectively from the EU, ASEAN, and Africa[4] - However, there is a noted decline in exports of consumer electronics and automobiles compared to the previous month[4] Future Outlook - Short-term indicators suggest a decline in container shipments to the US, indicating a potential drop in exports to the US in August[5] - Long-term projections indicate that July may represent the peak for year-on-year export growth, with an increasing probability of accelerated decline in exports moving forward[5] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected declines in external demand and unforeseen policy changes that could impact trade dynamics[6]

Group 1: Export Data Overview - July exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.8% and previous value of 5.8%[10] - Exports to the US fell by 5.6 percentage points to -21.6%, indicating a decline in "export grabbing" phenomenon[2] - Exports to emerging markets, such as Latin America (+9.8% to 7.8%) and Africa (+7.5% to 42.5%), showed significant recovery[2] Group 2: Import Data Overview - July imports rose by 4.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 0.3% and previous value of 1.1%[10] - Major commodities like copper (+16.2% to 18.0%), soybeans (+8.1% to 18.4%), and crude oil (+4.1% to 11.5%) saw increased import volumes, reflecting a recovery in domestic investment demand[44] - The import growth was primarily driven by a rebound in bulk commodity imports[44] Group 3: Future Outlook - The implementation of "Reciprocal Tariffs 2.0" on August 7 may introduce uncertainty for exports in August[29] - The recent decline in port throughput further confirms the downward trend in export grabbing to the US and emerging markets[29] - Despite potential export declines, high levels of processing trade imports in July suggest that the drop in August may be relatively controllable[29]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in "export grabbing" to the US and improvement in exports to emerging markets may be due to expectations of transshipment and recovery in domestic demand [3][10][62] Group 1: Export Trends - In July, exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 5.8% [2][9][62] - Exports to the US fell by 21.6%, a decline of 5.6 percentage points, while exports to Latin America and Africa rose significantly [3][10][62] - The export growth to emerging markets, such as Africa (+42.5%) and Latin America (+7.8%), indicates a shift in trade dynamics [3][10][62] Group 2: Factors Influencing Export Changes - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" to the US has declined, particularly in consumer electronics and toys, suggesting a reduction in demand from the US [3][18][62] - The announcement of a 40% tariff on transshipment goods by the US has led to increased demand from ASEAN and Latin American companies for imports from China [4][26][63] - The industrialization of emerging markets, particularly in Africa, has increased the demand for Chinese production materials, contributing to overall export growth [4][29][63] Group 3: Future Outlook - The implementation of the "reciprocal tariff 2.0" may create uncertainty for exports in August, as the necessity for "export grabbing" to emerging markets diminishes [5][32][64] - Despite the decline in port throughput, the high level of processing trade imports in July suggests that the drop in exports may be relatively controllable [5][32][64] Group 4: Import Trends - Imports increased by 4.1% year-on-year in July, driven by a recovery in bulk commodity imports [7][52][66] - Specific commodities such as copper (+18.0%), soybeans (+18.4%), and crude oil (+11.5%) showed significant increases, reflecting a rebound in domestic investment demand [7][53][66]