Core Viewpoint - The winter climate in China is expected to be influenced by the La Niña phenomenon, which is predicted to last until early 2026, leading to average national temperatures close to or above normal levels this winter [2][6][7]. Temperature Trends - In October, the national average temperature was 11.1°C, close to the historical average, with a "warm front followed by cold" pattern observed [4]. - The early part of October experienced high temperatures, with some regions in southern China exceeding 38°C, while a significant drop in temperature occurred in the latter part of the month due to cold air masses [5]. La Niña Impact - The La Niña state is expected to result in a winter with average temperatures near or above normal and generally lower precipitation, particularly in southern regions [7]. - The risk of widespread low-temperature rain and snow events in southern China is considered low [7]. Precipitation Patterns - National average precipitation in October was 51.5 mm, which is 51.8% above the historical average, marking the third-highest for this period [8]. - The forecast indicates that certain regions, including northeastern and southwestern areas, will experience above-average precipitation, while others will see near-normal to below-normal levels [9]. Upcoming Weather Forecast - The next ten days are expected to see higher temperatures in most northern regions, with average temperatures 1-3°C above or close to normal levels [8]. - Rainfall is anticipated in various regions, with specific areas in the southwest and south experiencing significant precipitation events [9].

Core Viewpoint - The China Meteorological Administration predicts the development of a "La Niña" phenomenon starting in late autumn 2023, expected to last until early 2026, with a lower probability of significant impacts on climate conditions in China [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **La Niña Development** - The "La Niña" state is anticipated to begin in late autumn 2023 and continue until early 2026 [1] - The duration of this "La Niña" event is expected to be relatively short, leading to a lower probability of a significant "La Niña event" [1] - **Impact on Climate** - Under the "La Niña" conditions, the average national temperature during winter is expected to be close to or above the historical average [1] - Overall precipitation is predicted to be lower, with a distribution pattern showing more precipitation in the north and less in the south [1] - The risk of widespread low-temperature rain, snow, and ice in southern regions is considered low [1] - Significant temperature fluctuations are expected this winter, with notable differences in cold and warm periods [1] - Regions such as southeastern China, central eastern China, and southeastern southern China are forecasted to experience reduced precipitation [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Domestic supply faces significant real - world pressure, with soybean inventories at their highest level in history. In the short term, there is no breakthrough in importing US soybeans. As the soybean meal inventory - reduction season begins, it provides some support. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is mainly to sell on rebounds [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: US soybeans rebounded this week. Trump's negotiations with multiple countries are beneficial for US soybean sales, and the reluctance of US domestic spot holders to sell also provides support. Brazil's new - crop soybean planting is progressing normally, with an expected planting progress of about 30% this week. Brazil's premium quotes have been continuously decreasing, but the rebound of US soybeans is more significant, causing the domestic soybean arrival cost to rise slightly by 50 yuan/ton. Currently, the valuation of US soybeans is slightly low, and there is some room for Brazil's premium to decline. Since there is no significant downward trend in the global soybean supply, it is expected that the domestic soybean import cost will fluctuate weakly. Whether to import US soybeans is undetermined. If China continues not to import US soybeans, Brazil's quotes will remain strong, providing some support for soybean meal. If partial or full import of US soybeans is allowed, the soybean meal market may first trade on the short - term supply pressure, causing the price to fall, and then, after the game between US soybeans and Brazil's premium ends, the import cost will stabilize, and the soybean meal market will then trade based on the cost [9]. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, the domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated, the basis weakened, the futures market was strong, and the oil mills' futures crushing profit rebounded. The domestic soybean meal trading volume was average, and the pick - up volume was at a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 7.95 days, slightly higher than the same period last year, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 days. As of October 22, institutional statistics showed that the soybean purchases in August were 9.2 million tons, 8.64 million tons in September, 8.52 million tons in October, and 5.26 million tons in November. The current purchase progress indicates that the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to decline. Coupled with the large - scale pick - up of domestic soybean meal, the domestic soybean - related basis has some support [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic supply has significant real - world pressure, with soybean inventories at their highest level in history. In the short term, there is no breakthrough in importing US soybeans. As the soybean meal inventory - reduction season begins, it provides some support. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is mainly to sell on rebounds [9][10][11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price**: The report presents the historical spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong, but does not provide specific analysis [17][18]. - **Basis of the Main Contract**: The report shows the historical basis trends of the soybean meal 01 contract and the rapeseed meal 01 contract, but does not provide specific analysis [20][21]. - **Spread**: The report shows the historical spread trends of multiple contracts such as soybean meal 11 - 1, soybean meal 01 - 05, soybean meal 03 - 05, and soybean meal 01 - rapeseed meal 01, but does not provide specific analysis [23][24]. - **Fund Position**: The report shows the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal management funds, but does not provide specific analysis [26][29] 3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: The report shows the historical trends of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - quality rate, but does not provide specific analysis [32][33]. - **Weather Conditions**: There is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. The report shows the weighted precipitation in US and Brazilian soybean - producing areas and its forecast, as well as the impact of La Nina on precipitation in North America from July to September and its occurrence frequency, and the impact of La Nina on South American climate, but does not provide specific analysis [35][37][39]. - **US Soybean Processing and Price**: The report shows the historical trends of US soybean processing profit, Illinois Central No. 1 yellow soybean spot price, US soybean monthly processing volume, and NOPA soybean oil inventory, but does not provide specific analysis [47][50]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: The report shows the historical trends of the total export contracts of US soybeans to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total export contracts of US soybeans in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipments of US soybeans to China in the current market year, but does not provide specific analysis [51][52]. - **China's Oilseed Import**: The report shows the historical trends and forecasts of China's monthly soybean and rapeseed imports, but does not provide specific analysis [54][55]. - **China's Oil Mill Processing**: The report shows the historical trends of the soybean and rapeseed processing volumes of major oil mills in China, but does not provide specific analysis [56][57]. 4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in China, but does not provide specific analysis [60][61]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends and forecasts of the soybean meal inventory of major coastal oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of major coastal oil mills in China, but does not provide specific analysis [63][64]. - **Protein Meal Processing Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of the processing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed along the coast, but does not provide specific analysis [65][66]. 5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of the cumulative trading volume of soybean meal by major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal, but does not provide specific analysis [67][68]. - **Breeding Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit per feather of white - feather broilers, but does not provide specific analysis [69][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global soybean supply and demand pattern shows no obvious positive factors. The new - season soybean planting in Brazil is progressing normally, and the estimated planting area is increasing. The domestic soybean import cost is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic double - meal market is under real - time supply pressure, with soybean inventory at a record high and no clear positive factors on the cost side. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, setting the direction of selling on rebounds. In the short term, there are uncertainties in South American planting and weather, and the bean - meal destocking season provides some support. It is expected that the bean - meal market will fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: This week, US soybeans fluctuated weakly. The global soybean supply - demand pattern shows no obvious positive factors. Brazil's new - season soybean planting is progressing normally, and institutional estimates suggest an increase in the planting area. Brazil's premium quotes fluctuated this week, and the soybean arrival cost remained stable. The valuation of US soybeans is currently slightly low, and there is some room for the Brazilian premium to decline. Since there is no significant decline in the global soybean supply, the domestic soybean import cost is expected to fluctuate weakly. Whether to import US soybeans is yet to be determined. If China continues not to import US soybeans, the Brazilian quotes will remain strong, providing some support for the bean - meal market. If partial or full import of US soybeans is allowed, the bean - meal market may first trade the short - term supply pressure, causing the price to decline. Then, after the game between US soybeans and the Brazilian premium ends, the import cost will stabilize, and the bean - meal market will trade based on the cost [9]. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, the domestic bean - meal spot market weakened, the basis increased, the futures market weakened, and the oil - mill's futures crushing profit declined. Domestic trading volume was average, and the pick - up volume rebounded to a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 7.93 days, slightly higher than the same period last year, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.41 days. As of October 14, institutional statistics showed that the purchased volume in August was 9.2 million tons, 8.76 million tons in September, 8.26 million tons in October, and 5.33 million tons in November. The current purchase progress indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September. Coupled with the large - scale pick - up of domestic bean - meal, the domestic bean - based basis has some support [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is that the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The core driving logic is that the domestic supply is under real - time pressure, with soybean inventory at a record high and no clear positive factors on the cost side. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, setting the direction of selling on rebounds. In the short term, there are uncertainties in South American planting and weather, and the bean - meal destocking season provides some support [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price**: The report presents the historical spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong, from 2021 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Basis of the Main Contract**: The report shows the historical basis trends of the soybean - meal 01 contract and the rapeseed - meal 01 contract from February to October 2025 [20][21]. - **Spread**: The report displays the historical spread trends of the soybean - meal 01 - 05, 03 - 05, 11 - 1 spreads, and the soybean - meal 01 - rapeseed - meal 01 spread from 2021 to 2026 [22][23]. - **Fund Position**: The report shows the historical net - long positions of the management funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal from May 2020 to September 2025, along with the corresponding futures prices [25][26][29]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: The report presents the historical planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and excellent - good rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [31][32]. - **Weather Conditions**: There is a possibility of La Niña occurring from October 2025 to January 2026. The report also shows the weighted precipitation and forecasts in the US and Brazilian soybean - producing areas until October 31, 2025, as well as the impact and frequency of La Niña on precipitation in North America from July to September and its climate impact on South America [34][35][36]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: The report shows the historical trends of the total export contracts signed by the US soybeans in the current market year to China, the sales completion rate of the current year, the total export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipment volume to China from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [49][50]. - **China's Oilseed Imports**: The report presents the historical monthly import volume and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China from 2021 to 2025 [52][53]. - **China's Oil - Mill Crushing Situation**: The report shows the historical soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [54][55]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: The report presents the historical port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills from 2021 to 2025 [58][59]. - **Protein - Meal Inventory**: The report shows the historical inventory and forecasts of soybean meal in major coastal oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed meal in major coastal oil mills from 2021 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Protein - Meal Crushing Profit**: The report presents the historical crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2021 to 2025 [63][64]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption and Transaction**: The report shows the historical cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [66]. - **Breeding Profit**: The report presents the historical per - head profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the per - feather profit of white - feather broiler breeding from 2021 to 2025 [67][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft - commodity and fresh - fruit sectors show different market trends. In the soft - commodity sector, sugar prices are under pressure but with limited downside, and pulp has high supply and limited demand improvement. In the fresh - fruit sector, apple prices are in high - level oscillation, and jujube prices are affected by various factors such as inventory and seasonality [3][10]. - For trading strategies, different approaches are recommended for each commodity. For example, for sugar, it is advisable to wait and consider selling wide - straddle options; for pulp, a bearish approach on rebounds is suggested [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh - fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, use an interval trading strategy with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a resistance range of 9000 - 9200. For Jujube 2601, consider short - selling at high prices, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a resistance range of 11500 - 12000 [20]. - **Soft - commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, wait and see. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish approach in the interval, with a support range of 4700 - 4750 and a resistance range of 5100 - 5200. For Double - offset Paper 2601, short on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a resistance range of 4400 - 4500. For Cotton 2601, hold short positions cautiously, with a support range of 12800 - 13000 and a resistance range of 13600 - 13700 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In August 2025, fresh apple exports were about 68,400 tons, a 27.59% month - on - month increase but a 17.57% year - on - year decrease. As of September 25, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 147,900 tons, a 60,200 - ton week - on - week decrease and a 30,700 - ton year - on - year decrease [21]. - **Spot Market**: Prices in Shandong were stable with little trading, and new apples haven't been widely available due to rainfall. In Shaanxi, merchants were interested in high - quality apples. In other regions, prices in Gansu remained high, and prices in Liaoning varied by variety. In the sales areas, the arrival volume was lower than usual, and prices were stable [21][22][23]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market The inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses was 9167 tons, a 0.39% week - on - week decrease but a 93.89% year - on - year increase. Attention should be paid to the circulation of old jujubes and price changes before the new jujubes are harvested [24]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market In September, the forecasted arrival of duty - quota - free raw sugar was 460,000 tons, and the estimated sugar import was 600,000 - 700,000 tons. Brazil's 2025 sugarcane planting area was estimated to be 9.355219 million hectares, and the output was estimated to be 695.532937 million tons. Spot sugar prices in Yunnan and Guangxi decreased slightly [26]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The offer price of NBSK to Chinese traders was 650 US dollars per ton, but sellers refused to lower the price. A European supplier sold NBSK at 650 US dollars per ton. The price of Canadian and Nordic NBSK remained at 680 - 700 US dollars per ton. A major Brazilian supplier planned to increase the price of South American bleached hardwood pulp to the Asian market by 20 US dollars per ton [29]. 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market In Shandong, the mainstream price of high - white double - offset paper was 4600 - 4750 yuan per ton, and that of some natural - white paper was 4300 - 4500 yuan per ton. In Guangdong, the mainstream price of high - white paper was 4600 - 4700 yuan per ton. In Beijing, the mainstream price of high - white paper was 4700 - 4800 yuan per ton. In Tianjin, the price was 4900 - 5000 yuan per ton. Supply was relatively loose, and demand showed no improvement [30][31]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market In September 2025, Vietnam's cotton textile output was 102 million square meters, a 9.4% year - on - year and 4.28% month - on - month increase; clothing output was 554 million pieces, a 13.52% year - on - year decrease but a 1.52% month - on - month increase. In August, Thailand's cotton import was about 9057 tons, a 43.5% month - on - month decrease but a 1.2% year - on - year increase [33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2601 closed at 8510, down 155 or 1.79%. - Jujube 2601 closed at 11360, up 255 or 2.30%. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5408, up 5 or 0.09%. - Pulp 2511 closed at 4856, unchanged. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13320, up 50 or 0.38% [33]. 3.3.2 Spot Market Review - Apples were priced at 3.75 yuan per jin, unchanged month - on - month but up 0.50 yuan year - on - year. - Jujubes were priced at 9.40 yuan per kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year. - Sugar was priced at 5790 yuan per ton, unchanged month - on - month but down 750 yuan year - on - year. - Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was priced at 5550 yuan, unchanged month - on - month but down 700 yuan year - on - year. - Double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was priced at 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month but down 450 yuan year - on - year. - Cotton was priced at 14664 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and 849 yuan year - on - year [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific analysis of basis situation was provided other than relevant figures and sources. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - For apples, the 10 - 1 spread was 535, down 1 month - on - month and 97 year - on - year, with an expected volatile trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see. - For jujubes, the 9 - 1 spread was 255, up 315 month - on - month and down 140 year - on - year, with an expected range - bound trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 spread was 34, up 2 month - on - month and 19 year - on - year, with an expected volatile trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see. - For cotton, the 1 - 5 spread was - 55, up 5 month - on - month and 25 year - on - year, with an expected range - bound trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see temporarily [61]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning No specific analysis of futures positioning was provided other than relevant figures and sources. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apples had 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Jujubes had 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Sugar had 8438 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month but down 1280 year - on - year. - Pulp had 227468 warehouse receipts, down 208 month - on - month and 176879 year - on - year. - Cotton had 2724 warehouse receipts, down 49 month - on - month and 1349 year - on - year [90]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific analysis of option - related data was provided other than relevant figures and sources.

Core Insights - The National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center predicts a cooler state in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific during the autumn and winter of 2025, while most coastal waters of China will experience higher sea temperatures [1][2] Group 1: ENSO Predictions - Experts discussed the changing characteristics of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) under global warming, which poses new challenges for climate prediction [1] - The Nino3.4 index is expected to approach or reach the threshold for a La Niña event, indicating a possibility of a weak La Niña occurrence [1] Group 2: Seasonal Sea Temperature Forecasts - Predictions for this winter indicate slightly higher sea temperatures in the Bohai Sea and the southern part of the East China Sea, while the Yellow Sea and central and northern East China Sea will also see elevated temperatures [2] - The South China Sea's temperatures are expected to be close to the long-term average, with a focus on the impact of higher coastal sea temperatures on aquaculture and marine ecological environments [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - medium term relative strength ranking: Oils > Sugar > Meal > Corn > Cotton > Livestock [2] - Short - medium term long - short allocation suggestions: Long palm oil 01 and sugar 01; short cotton 01 and egg 01 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1上期策略回顾 - **豆粕**: Recommended to go long M2601 on dips with a stop - loss at 2900 - 2950. From September 22 to October 14, M2601 fell 132 points to 2902. The Argentine government's export tax suspension policy and other factors led to a weak performance [12]. - **玉米**: Recommended to go short corn 11 contract on rallies. After the National Day, the spot price dropped sharply, and the futures price also followed suit, breaking below 2100 yuan/ton, with a good strategy performance [12]. - **油脂**: Recommended to go long palm oil 01 contract. From September 22 to October 14, the price was basically flat. The Argentine export tax suspension and the MPOB report affected the price trend [13]. - **棉花**: Recommended to hold the short position of the 1 - month contract and the reverse spread strategy of the 11 - 1 contract. The short position of the 1 - month contract was profitable by 3%, while the reverse spread strategy was not successful [14]. - **白糖**: Recommended to go long SR601 on dips. Affected by the Sino - US trade war and other factors, the strategy performed poorly [14]. - **强弱配置策略**: In the past month from September 19 to October 15, the overall performance of agricultural products was weak. The long - short allocation strategy achieved a 1.7% profit [15][16]. 3.2本期策略推荐 3.2.1单边策略 - **棕榈油**: Bullish in 3 months. Although the inventory in October and the delay of Indonesia's B50 policy will suppress the rise of the 01 contract, the coming of the production reduction season, the increasing probability of La Nina, and the support of Indonesia's B40 policy are still positive factors. It is recommended to go long the 01 contract with a stop - loss at 9000, a short - term take - profit at 9600, and a medium - long - term target of 9800 - 10000 yuan [19]. - **白糖**: Bullish in 3 months. In the fourth quarter, the supply of Brazilian sugar will decrease, and considering the production costs of major producers, the export threshold of India, and the CFTC positions, the downside space of the outer market is limited. The domestic sugar market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar, and the SR601 contract has long - allocation value. It is recommended to go long on dips with a take - profit at 5600 - 5700 and a stop - loss at 5350 [19]. 3.2.2套利策略 No relevant content provided. 3.2.3推荐策略逻辑详述及相关指标跟踪 - **油脂板块**: The long - term logic of long - allocating palm oil remains unchanged. In the short term, the inventory in October and the delay of B50 will suppress the 01 contract, but the production reduction season and the demand for Indonesia to catch up with the B40 progress are positive. It is recommended to go long the 01 contract at 9200 - 9300 yuan with a take - profit around 9600 yuan [22][23]. - **白糖板块**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar production will decline, the production expectations of India and Thailand need to be verified, the production costs of major producers are high, and the CFTC positions indicate limited downside space. Domestically, the import volume will decrease in the fourth quarter, and the market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar. It is recommended to go long the SR601 contract on dips [28][29][32]. 3.3农产品品种间强弱排序 3.3.1农产品各主要品种观点 - **豆粕**: In the short - medium term, it is supported by cost but suppressed by supply and demand. The supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a supply shortage from February to the arrival of new - season Brazilian soybeans [51]. - **菜粕**: Similar to bean粕, affected by policies. The spot basis of rapeseed meal is stronger than that of bean粕 [51]. - **棕榈油**: In the short term, the rise of the 01 contract is restricted, but it is expected to strengthen in the fourth quarter. In the medium - long term, it is expected to continue to rise [51]. - **豆油**: It has been oscillating recently, lacking a clear driving force, and needs to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US relations [51]. - **菜油**: It has been weak recently, affected by the possible relaxation of Sino - Canadian relations and the arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed [51]. - **玉米**: It is expected to find the bottom through oscillation in the short term and then rebound. The price center is expected to remain relatively stable [53]. - **玉米淀粉**: It is expected to follow corn to find the bottom first and then gradually build the bottom and rebound. The futures rice - flour price difference is expected to remain low and oscillate [53]. - **鸡蛋**: The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is difficult to ease significantly. It is recommended to go short the JD2511 contract and pay attention to the anti - spread strategy [53]. - **生猪**: The futures price is trading the problem of oversupply. The seasonal rebound drive of the 1 - month contract is not as strong as the drag of inventory reduction on the spot price [53]. - **白糖**: In the fourth quarter, the supply of Brazilian sugar will decrease, and the domestic sugar market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar. The SR601 contract has long - allocation value [54]. - **棉花**: In the short - medium term, it will be under pressure, and the low point may appear in November. In the long term, it is cautiously optimistic [54]. - **橡胶**: It is expected to oscillate and weaken in the fourth quarter, but the price may rebound if the raw material decline is slow [54]. 3.3.2主要指标跟踪 - **资金面动态**: In the past month from September 15 to October 15, the capital scale of the agricultural product futures sector was basically stable, with a slight net outflow. The net outflow of funds in the bean and oil sectors was relatively large, while the soft commodities, agricultural and sideline products (especially livestock), and grains had varying degrees of net inflows [55]. - **各品种基差及基差率（2025年10月15日）**: The report provides the basis and basis rate data of various agricultural product varieties on October 15, 2025 [59]. - **农产品期货强弱排序及多空配置策略**: In the short - medium term, it is recommended to long - allocate palm oil 01 and sugar 01 and short - allocate cotton 01 and egg 01. In the medium - long term, it is recommended to long - allocate oils on dips and short - allocate sugar, livestock, and eggs on rallies [66][67].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant weather differences between northern and southern China in October, highlighting the impact on agriculture and public health due to the contrasting conditions of cold and wet in the north versus hot and dry in the south [1][2]. Weather Disparity - Northern regions, including Northwest, North China, and Huanghuai, have experienced increased rainfall, while southern areas like Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, and northern Guangdong have seen temperatures exceeding 35°C, with some places reaching above 38°C [2][3]. Causes of Weather Differences - The disparity is attributed to the influence of the subtropical high-pressure system, which creates a "moisture transport belt" that brings warm, moist air from the sea to the north, leading to prolonged autumn rains in the northwest and North China [3][4]. Agricultural Impact - The contrasting weather poses challenges for agricultural production, particularly during the autumn harvest and planting season. In the north, excessive rainfall has led to waterlogged soils, delaying the harvest of corn and affecting winter wheat planting [5][6]. - In the south, high temperatures can negatively impact crops like rice, causing early root aging and reduced yield due to high-temperature stress [6]. Health Implications - The unusual weather patterns also affect public health, with increased cases of respiratory diseases in the north due to cold and damp conditions, while the south faces risks of heat-related illnesses [7][8][9]. - Health experts recommend precautions for vulnerable populations, including maintaining warmth in cold conditions and managing hydration and heat exposure in hot weather [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The fourth quarter is expected to experience a "旺季不旺" (peak season not prosperous) situation in the pig industry, despite entering the consumption peak season, due to various factors affecting supply and demand [1] Supply Side - The number of breeding sows is showing a slight downward trend, and it is anticipated to continue decreasing in the fourth quarter [1] - The slaughter levels for the fourth quarter are becoming clearer, with an expected increase in pork supply due to higher slaughter volumes and weight factors [1] Demand Side - Although the fourth quarter typically marks a peak consumption period, the support for demand may not meet expectations [1] - There is a tendency for secondary fattening to lean towards net slaughter during this period [1] Environmental Factors - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to influence weather patterns, leading to drought in the south and flooding in the north, with a high probability of increased rainfall in winter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant weather differences between northern and southern China in October, highlighting the impact on agriculture and public health due to the contrasting climatic conditions [1][2]. Weather Disparity - Northern regions, including Northwest and North China, are experiencing increased rainfall and cooler temperatures, while southern regions, such as Jiangnan and South China, are facing persistent high temperatures, with some areas exceeding 35°C [2][3]. Meteorological Explanation - The weather patterns are influenced by the subtropical high-pressure system, which causes dry and hot conditions in the south while leading to rainfall in the north due to the interaction of warm moist air and cold air masses [3][4]. Agricultural Impact - The contrasting weather poses challenges for agricultural production, particularly during the autumn harvest and planting season. In northern regions, excessive rainfall has led to waterlogged soils, delaying the harvest of crops like corn and affecting winter wheat planting [5][6]. - In southern regions, high temperatures can negatively impact crops such as rice, leading to reduced yields and increased susceptibility to pests and diseases [7]. Public Health Concerns - The unusual weather patterns also affect public health, with increased cases of respiratory illnesses in the north due to cold and damp conditions, while the south sees cases of heat-related illnesses like heatstroke [8][9][10]. - Health experts recommend precautions for vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, to mitigate health risks associated with the current weather extremes [9][10].