煤炭ETF（515220）跟踪的是中证煤炭指数（399998），该指数从A股市场中选取涉及煤炭开采、加工 及相关服务等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映煤炭行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指 数具有较强的行业代表性，配置上侧重于煤炭产业。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 招商证券指出，当前北方港口库存处于高位，而目前冷冬需求兑现不及预期，下游电厂负荷尚未明显提 升，日耗同比降幅走扩，需求尚未出现实质性改善，同时社会库存整体偏高，电厂去库拐点滞后，电厂 以长协煤采购为主，市场煤仅有零星招标和刚需支撑，对价格支撑较弱，叠加新能源发电对火电挤占， 价格仍缺乏反弹动力。展望后市，供给收缩决定了煤价下行有底，旺季需求决定了煤价后续上涨空间， 近日气候专家表示我国进入拉尼娜状态，东南沿海冷冬兑现概率加大，煤价有望止跌企稳，需求峰值高 度仍需持续观察跟踪。 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月23日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な女女 | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | な☆☆ | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一主力经过短暂的跳空之后,盘面再度回升,盘面仍然在进行移仓。本周中储粮计划竞价拍卖大豆2.1万吨, 成交1.3万吨,底价3950元/吨,成交均价4027元/吨,溢价0-160元/吨。由于拍卖溢价成交,给豆一价格带来一 定的支撑,价格表 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Upward Trend (Red Stars)**: None - **Downward Trend (Green Stars)**: None - **Bullish with Low Operability (One Star)**: Egg (★☆☆) [1][11] - **Bearish with Low Operability (One Star)**: None - **Bullish with Clear Trend and Market Movement (Two Stars)**: None - **Bearish with Clear Trend and Market Movement (Two Stars)**: None - **Bullish with Clear Trend and Investment Opportunity (Three Stars)**: None - **Bearish with Clear Trend and Investment Opportunity (Three Stars)**: None - **Balanced Trend with Low Operability (White Stars)**: All Others [1][11] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans, soymeal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, hogs, and eggs, providing insights into price trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybeans - The main soybean contract recovered after a brief gap, with ongoing position transfers. Today, CGS plans to auction 21,000 tons of soybeans, with 13,000 tons sold at a base price of 3,950 yuan/ton and an average price of 4,027 yuan/ton, with premiums ranging from 0 - 160 yuan/ton. The premium auction supported the price, keeping it stable and strong. Monitor fundamentals and policies [2] Soybeans & Soymeal - South American weather has improved, with a 68% chance of La Nina transitioning to ENSO neutral in Q1 next year. The trading logic has shifted back to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper South American harvest. New - season US soybean sales are at a five - year low, and futures prices have fallen to previous lows. In China, last week, soybean inventories at oil mills slightly increased, while soymeal inventories decreased. Monitor US soybean exports and the impact of La Nina in South America. Soymeal prices will follow US soybeans and fluctuate, pending South American weather changes [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil rebounded from lows after position reductions, likely due to short - covering. Malaysian palm oil data shows improved exports and lower production, easing the bearish sentiment. US soybeans have stabilized after recent declines, and short - term weather risks in South American production areas are low. Monitor fundamentals [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed products have rebounded. After continuous price drops, there is a strong demand for short - covering. The focus has shifted to marginal supply - demand improvements. Coastal oil mills in China have zero rapeseed inventories, and Australian rapeseed has not started being crushed. The stability of China - Australia rapeseed trade is uncertain. In the medium term, global rapeseed supply exceeds demand, pressuring prices and potentially leading to a long bottom - forming period. The rapeseed strategy has changed from bearish to short - term neutral [6] Corn - Corn spot prices in Northeast China and northern ports are weak. Farmers' reluctance to sell has slightly decreased, and downstream buyers are more cautious about high - quality, high - priced grains. In North China, corn purchasing enthusiasm has cooled, with downstream buyers purchasing on demand. Prices are stable but weak. The number of remaining trucks at corn deep - processing enterprises has decreased. After the temporary supply - demand mismatch eased, upstream selling enthusiasm is rising, while downstream purchases have not increased significantly. Monitor Northeast selling progress and corn and wheat auctions. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Hogs - Slaughter volume dropped rapidly after the Winter Solstice, and weekend hog spot prices fell sharply. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens has dropped to 20 - 30%. There may be a second - fattening restocking wave before the Spring Festival, which could support the current hog price. In the long term, historical hog cycles often have a double - bottom ("W") pattern. The October low was likely the first emotional bottom, and hog prices are likely to form a second bottom in H1 next year due to supply pressure and weak demand. The 03 contract is expected to remain weak [8] Eggs - Egg spot prices are in a low - level oscillation range, indicating an over - supplied market. The February contract corresponds to the post - Spring Festival off - season. Although the industry's inventory will decline month - on - month, the absolute inventory is still high, and demand is weak, so the February contract is expected to be weak. Contracts for April and May next year will see a continued month - on - month decline in supply and a return to normal demand, so prices are expected to be relatively strong. Consider 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spread strategies. The high - premium peak - season contracts are not yet investable [9]

1. Report Investment Ratings for Different Agricultural Products - **Positive Outlook**: Soybean (★★★), indicating a clear upward trend and relatively good investment opportunities [1] - **Moderate Positive**: Rapeseed Meal, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal (★★☆), suggesting a relatively clear upward - trending judgment and an ongoing market rally [1] - **Weak Positive**: Rapeseed Oil, Corn (★☆☆), showing a driving force for upward movement but limited market operability [1] - **Weak Negative**: Eggs (★☆☆), with a driving force for downward movement but limited market operability [1] - **Negative Outlook**: Live Pigs (★★★), indicating a clear downward trend and relatively good short - selling opportunities (implied) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market trends of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policy. Different products have different outlooks, with some expected to rise, some to fall, and some to be in a volatile state [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Product Category Soybean - After a brief gap, the soybean market rebounded, and the contract was being rolled over. The auction of 21,000 tons of soybeans by Sinograin had a turnover of 13,000 tons at a base price of 3950 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4027 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 160 yuan/ton, providing support to the price [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - South American weather has improved recently, with a 68% probability that La Nina will turn into ENSO neutral in Q1 next year. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. US soybean futures have fallen back to the previous low - range, and new - season US soybean sales are the lowest in the same period of the past five years. In China, last week, the inventory of imported soybeans in oil mills increased slightly, while the soybean meal inventory decreased. The price of soybean meal will follow the fluctuations of US soybeans and wait for changes in South American weather [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil reduced their positions, and prices rebounded from the low level, presumably due to short - covering by bears. Malaysian high - frequency data shows that palm oil exports have improved month - on - month, while production has declined month - on - month, alleviating the bearish atmosphere. US soybeans have stabilized after recent declines, and the short - term weather risk in South American production areas is low [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market has rebounded recently. After the continuous decline in futures prices, there is a strong demand for short - covering. The focus has shifted to the marginal positive factors in supply and demand. Coastal oil mills in China maintain zero inventory of rapeseed products, and the restart of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade is difficult to predict. In the medium term, with a global oversupply of rapeseed, rapeseed prices are under pressure, and the price bottoming process may be long. The trading strategy for rapeseed products has changed from bearish to short - term wait - and - see [6] Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and northern ports remain weak. Farmers' reluctance to sell has slightly decreased, and downstream buyers are more cautious about high - quality and high - priced corn. Corn procurement enthusiasm in North China has cooled, with downstream buyers purchasing on - demand. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased. After the short - term supply - demand imbalance is alleviated, the enthusiasm of upstream sellers is on the rise, while downstream procurement shows no significant increase. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Live Pigs - After the Winter Solstice, the slaughter volume dropped rapidly, and the weekend spot price of live pigs was significantly reduced. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens has dropped to 20% - 30%. It is expected that there will be another round of second - fattening replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may provide short - term support for the current pig price. In the medium to long term, the pig cycle bottom usually shows a double - bottom ("W") pattern, and the low price in October is likely the first bottom. It is expected that pig prices will have a high probability of a second bottom in the first half of next year under the pressure of supply and the off - season of demand. The main 03 contract is expected to be weak [8] Eggs - The egg spot price is in a low - level oscillation range, indicating an oversupply situation. The February contract corresponds to the off - season after the Spring Festival. Although the industry's inventory is decreasing month - on - month, the absolute inventory is still high, and combined with the off - season demand, the February contract is expected to be weak. Contracts for April and May next year are expected to be relatively strong as the supply continues to decline month - on - month and demand returns to normal. An egg reverse spread strategy can be considered, such as 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spreads. The high - premium contracts for the peak season next year are not suitable for investment currently [9]

答：通常来说，发生拉尼娜事件的冬季，西北太平洋和南海上空盛行气旋式异常环流，其西侧偏北风有 利于引导北方冷空气南下，加强东亚冬季风，导致我国中东部地区气温以偏低为主。 "不过，受全球变暖等因素影响，本世纪以来，拉尼娜背景下我国冬季气温偏暖的情况也频繁发生，甚 至出现暖冬。"章大全说，预计今年冬季，全国大部地区气温接近常年同期到偏高，但气温冷暖起伏显 著，强降温和升温事件频繁；全国降水总体偏少，空间上呈"北多南少"分布。 问：对于拉尼娜状态，如何做好防范应对？ （来源：经济日报） 转自：经济日报 国家气候中心监测显示，今年10月，赤道中东太平洋已经进入拉尼娜状态。从历史数据来看，在多数拉 尼娜事件达到盛期的冬季，影响我国的冷空气活动比常年更加频繁，且强度偏强。什么是拉尼娜？对气 候有哪些影响？今年冬天是冷还是暖？一起来看本期快问快答→ 问：什么是拉尼娜？ 答：国家气候中心气候预测室首席预报员章大全表示，拉尼娜是发生在赤道中东太平洋的海气系统异常 现象，对全球气候异常都将产生显著影响。依据国家标准，气象专家采用NINO（尼诺）3.4指数来定义 赤道中东太平洋的海表面温度。当NINO3.4指数3个月的滑动平均值小于 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing pressure on students due to frequent exams and ranking systems, comparing it to the pressures faced by adults in the workplace [4][5] - It highlights recent tragic events, such as the shooting incidents in Brown University and Sydney, emphasizing the duality of human actions where both good and evil coexist [5][10] - The article touches on the rise of new food trends and the lifecycle of viral food items, indicating a cultural phenomenon in consumer behavior [12] Group 2 - The podcast "Knock Knock World" is introduced, aimed at engaging youth with global events and diverse thinking, with episodes released three times a week [15][16] - The podcast is available on various audio platforms, with a subscription model priced at 365 yuan per year, indicating a growing market for educational audio content [16][21]

尉氏县永兴镇王寨村，雪后暖阳下的麦田色彩斑斓，构成一幅美丽的乡村冬日画卷（12月13日摄）。 李新义 摄 近期，国家气候中心监测显示，今年10月，赤道中东太平洋正式进入拉尼娜状态，截至目前该状态仍在持 续。这一以"海水持续异常偏冷"为核心特征的海洋气候现象，正通过改变全球大气环流对多地气候产生扰 动，让河南8500多万亩越冬小麦面临考验。应该如何有效应对？12月18日，记者专访省气象局及农业领域的 专家，为公众带来权威解答与田间管理指南。 当前，河南8500多万亩麦田已陆续进入越冬期。全省大部分麦田土壤墒情适宜，但拉尼娜导致天气冷暖波动 大、降水偏少，发生阶段性强降温、雨雪冰冻等极端天气的可能性增大，对小麦安全越冬和春季生长可能会 带来不利影响，要特别警惕干旱、冻害、病虫"三重风险"。农业农村部防灾减灾专家指导组顾问、河南农业 大学教授郭天财提醒，农户需"看天看地看苗情"分区分类精准施策，把暖冬优势用足、风险压至最低。 气象学有个明确的判定标准：当赤道中东太平洋关键区域（尼诺3.4区）海温较常年平均水平低0.5℃，且持续 3个月以上，即达到"拉尼娜状态"；连续维持5个月以上，才算一次完整的拉尼娜事件。 简单说 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the current La Niña phenomenon is expected to influence winter temperatures in China, with significant fluctuations in temperature and overall reduced precipitation [1][2] - The La Niña state is defined by the NINO 3.4 index, and its current status is projected to last until early 2026, but the likelihood of forming a La Niña event is relatively low due to its expected duration being less than five months [2] - The impact of La Niña typically results in colder winter temperatures in central and eastern China, but recent trends show that global warming may lead to warmer winters even during La Niña years, as seen in the winter of 2020/2021 [2] Group 2 - Recommendations for preparedness include monitoring potential severe weather events such as strong winds, significant temperature drops, and snowfall in regions like Northeast, North China, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang [3] - There is a risk of drought conditions in southeastern and central China due to high temperatures and low precipitation, necessitating early drought prevention measures [3] - The fluctuation in temperatures poses health risks, particularly for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, highlighting the need for public health awareness [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 豆粕: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 豆油: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 棕榈油: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 菜粕: 一颗星代表偏空 [1] - 菜油: 一颗星代表偏空 [1] - 玉米: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 生猪: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 鸡蛋: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] Report's Core View - 农产品各品种走势分化，需关注各品种供需、政策、天气等因素变化，部分品种短期面临压力，部分品种策略上有偏空倾向 [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs 豆一 - 豆一主力合约跳空下跌后盘整且移仓，本周四中储粮购销双向指卖底价3900元/吨，全部成交但成交价格较上次跌130元/吨，下周一计划竞价拍卖2.1万吨，短期供应压力环比增加，本周五进口大豆指卖成交比例和价格均下滑，需关注政策端表现 [2] 大豆&豆粕 - 今日进口大豆拍卖成交比例32.66%，成交均价3750.83元/吨，南美天气好转，拉尼娜明年一季度转ENSO中性概率68%，交易逻辑重回美豆出口担忧和南美丰产预期，美豆销售量近5年同期最低，期货价格跌回前期底部，豆粕价格追随美豆震荡，等待南美天气变化 [3] 豆油&棕榈油 - 今日进口大豆指卖成交比例和价格下滑，海外美豆油和马棕油疲弱，全球菜籽供需宽松带动豆棕油走弱，国内油脂延续疲弱，进口大豆拍卖频率提升带来短期供应压力，CBOT大豆市场忧虑美豆出口，中期南美天气是矛盾点，海外棕榈油马来西亚库存压力高，需谨慎后续产量降幅低于往年拉长高库存周期，短期注意油脂供需面压力 [4] 菜粕&菜油 - 菜系延续下跌，市场对中加关系预期转暖，全球菜籽供需宽松，加拿大菜籽出口多元化推进慢，期价下沉，澳大利亚菜籽将压榨，市场对放开商业购买有预期，菜系焦点在进口端，关注政策变数，策略偏空 [6] 玉米 - 东北及北港玉米现货价格下行，东北农户惜售减弱，下游对高价粮观望，华北采购积极性降温，阶段性供需错配缓解，关注东北售粮进度和拍卖情况，短期大连玉米期货03合约高位震荡偏弱 [7] 生猪 - 生猪期货小幅反弹，现货冬至备货结束价格回落，从能繁母猪存栏推算春节后出栏处高峰，需求为淡季，预计春节后猪价二次探底，03、05合约期价偏空，春节前关注供应端出栏和去库情况 [8] 鸡蛋 - 春节后2、3、4月合约受打压，2月合约创新低，资金增仓超2万手，市场忧虑高存栏和需求淡季对价格施压，中长期基本面改善，当前处于牛熊转折期，后期存栏有望下降，盘面关注节奏和预期差 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent emergence of La Niña conditions has sparked public speculation about a potential "cold winter," but experts emphasize the complexity of climate predictions and the need for rational interpretation of such signals [1][2]. Group 1: La Niña Status vs. La Niña Event - The National Climate Center reported that the La Niña index reached -0.5°C in October, indicating the onset of La Niña conditions, but this does not equate to a La Niña event, which requires a sustained index below -0.5°C for at least five months [1]. - La Niña conditions are part of the ENSO phenomenon, which includes both warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases, and the distinction between status and event is crucial for accurate climate forecasting [1]. Group 2: Winter Weather Predictions - Current models suggest that while La Niña conditions are likely to persist this winter, the probability of a new La Niña event forming is low, reducing fears of a "double La Niña" scenario [2]. - Historically, La Niña events have been associated with colder winters in China, particularly in the central and eastern regions, but this correlation is not absolute, especially in the context of global warming [2][3]. Group 3: Climate Variability and Predictions - The frequency of warm winters during La Niña years has increased since 1986, with a 50% chance of colder winters during the last eight La Niña events [3]. - Current predictions indicate that most regions in China will experience temperatures close to or above the seasonal average, with significant fluctuations expected, leading to alternating periods of warming and cooling [4]. - The public is advised to rely on official meteorological forecasts and to understand the implications of La Niña conditions without overreacting [4].