Core Viewpoint - The new policy financial tools are crucial for stabilizing economic growth, with a focus on technology innovation, consumption upgrade, and foreign trade stability, while also addressing traditional infrastructure needs [1][2]. Investment Areas - The new policy financial tools will target several key areas, including: 1. Digital economy: network infrastructure, key capability support, and traditional industry digitalization [2]. 2. Artificial intelligence: computing power infrastructure, innovation infrastructure, and application scenarios [2]. 3. Low-altitude economy: facilities for low-altitude takeoff and landing, intelligent networking platforms, and safety enhancement projects [2]. 4. Consumer infrastructure: education, sports, cultural tourism, housing, and consumption infrastructure [2]. 5. Green and low-carbon projects: clean energy, environmental infrastructure, and energy-saving transformations [2]. Operation Model - The operation model includes: 1. Project selection based on administrative approval and readiness for construction [4]. 2. Project admission standards focusing on administrative procedures, funding sources, and investment matching [5][6][7][8]. 3. Investment methods primarily through equity investment and shareholder loans, with a preference for shareholder loans based on past practices [10][14]. 4. A green channel for project approval to expedite funding [4][11]. Review Points - Key review points for project approval include: 1. Importance and alignment with national strategies [15]. 2. Authenticity and maturity of the project, ensuring it meets all necessary approvals [16]. 3. Feasibility of the financing plan, ensuring it can generate sufficient cash flow [18]. 4. Compliance and creditworthiness of the funding applicant [20]. Summary - The new policy financial tools aim to address local financial constraints and support the transition to new productive forces, with a potential capital contribution of up to 50% [24]. The tools will focus on high-quality development in technology, consumption, and foreign trade, with an initial scale of 500 billion yuan expected to leverage social capital significantly [24]. The "quasi-fiscal" nature and low-cost advantages of these tools will facilitate the realization of GDP growth targets [24].

Core Insights - The overall fiscal performance in China for the first half of 2025 shows a slight decline in public budget revenue and an increase in expenditure, indicating a stable fiscal environment despite economic pressures [1][2]. Revenue Summary - Total public budget revenue reached 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [2]. - Tax revenue amounted to 92,915 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 3.7% to 22,651 billion yuan [2]. - Central government revenue was 48,589 billion yuan, a decline of 2.8%, while local government revenue rose by 1.6% to 66,977 billion yuan [2]. - Monthly tax revenue has shown a recovery since April, with growth rates of 1.9% in April, 0.6% in May, and 1% in June [2]. Expenditure Summary - Total public budget expenditure was 141,271 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [4]. - Central government expenditure grew by 9% to 19,914 billion yuan, while local government expenditure increased by 2.6% to 121,357 billion yuan [4]. - Key areas of expenditure included social security and employment (up 9.2%), education (up 5.9%), and science and technology (up 9.1%), while spending on urban and rural communities, agriculture, and transportation saw declines [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect favorable conditions for fiscal revenue in the second half of the year, driven by policies aimed at economic recovery and infrastructure investment [3]. - The introduction of new policy financial tools is anticipated to accelerate infrastructure recovery, benefiting sectors with significant accounts receivable [3]. - The government has substantial room for borrowing, with manageable debt levels and a large deficit space compared to international standards [3]. Key Areas of Focus - The government issued 26,000 billion yuan in new local government bonds to support major projects in the first half of the year [4]. - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on tax system reforms, which may include adjustments to consumption tax collection and local government incentives to improve the consumption environment [5].

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal characteristics of 2025 include expansion in total scale, front-loaded issuance rhythm, and differentiated structural features, which can explain some economic phenomena in the first half of the year [1][10][45]. Group 1: Fiscal Characteristics - Characteristic one is the expansion of total scale and differentiation in narrow and broad structures. The narrow fiscal deficit target rate of 4.0% is the upper limit of market expectations, with the target deficit scale increasing by 39.4% compared to 2024, marking the highest growth in the past decade [13][14][45]. - Characteristic two is the front-loaded fiscal rhythm and differentiation between central and local structures. Local governments have been actively issuing debt, but the contribution of infrastructure projects has not been significant. Central fiscal measures, including national bond issuance and "national subsidies," have been the main support for various economic segments [2][16][19]. - Characteristic three indicates that both narrow and broad fiscal revenues are influenced by lagging effects, PPI levels, and land market conditions, with growth rates lower than initial budget targets. This has contributed to the widening fiscal deficit in the first half of the year [22][23][24]. Group 2: Fiscal Revenue Expectations - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, favorable conditions for fiscal revenue include potential improvements in nominal growth due to "anti-involution" policies, which may boost tax revenue. However, adverse factors include a slowdown in real estate sales and a potential decline in land revenue [24][25][26]. Group 3: Government Debt Supply - In the second half of 2025, the government is expected to net increase about 5.8 trillion yuan in various types of government debt. The net financing pressure for government debt in the second half is relatively small compared to the first half [27][28][29]. Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure Projections - Broad fiscal expenditure is primarily determined by the scale of bond issuance and revenue. The expected growth rates for broad fiscal expenditure in optimistic, neutral, and cautious scenarios are approximately 8.4%, 7.8%, and 7.0%, respectively, all higher than the previous year's 2.7% [30][31][32]. Group 5: Infrastructure Performance - Infrastructure performance in the second half of 2025 is expected to improve compared to the first half, driven by the acceleration of long-term national bond funding and the introduction of new policy financial tools [5][33][34]. Group 6: Diverse Fiscal Support Areas - Beyond infrastructure, fiscal support is increasingly diverse, including "national subsidies" to boost retail sales, potential nationwide child-rearing subsidies, urban renewal initiatives, and measures to address corporate debt [35][36][37]. Group 7: Fiscal and Tax System Reforms - The focus of fiscal and tax system reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period will include tax reforms, such as shifting consumption tax collection to local levels, and adjustments in the distribution of fiscal powers between central and local governments [39][40][41]. Group 8: Asset Pricing Implications - The fiscal clues for the second half of the year are expected to influence asset pricing, particularly benefiting construction-related industries and emerging sectors like low-altitude and digital economies [43].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that to strengthen the domestic circulation and promote a strong synergy for expanding domestic demand, existing policies will accelerate implementation in the second half of the year [1] - According to the chief economist of Minsheng Bank, there is still significant room for expanding domestic demand through existing policies [1] - For fiscal policy, there is over 7 trillion yuan of broad fiscal space remaining for the second half of the year, with specific remaining amounts of 4.03 trillion yuan for deficits, 2.24 trillion yuan for special bonds, and 745 billion yuan for ultra-long special government bonds [1] Group 2 - After the fiscal funds are in place, a special fund of 138 billion yuan for replacing old with new will be distributed in two batches in July and October [1] - New policy financial tools are currently in the consultation phase, with some localities preparing projects in line with the consultation draft, and the funding amount for this round of new policy financial tools may be 500 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The improvement in credit is primarily driven by the rapid growth of short-term loans from enterprises, with a monthly year-on-year increase of 490 billion [3][46] - In June, total new credit reached 2.24 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 110 billion, where enterprise loans increased by 1.4 trillion, mainly from short-term loans [3][46] - The cautious attitude of enterprises towards long-term investments is reflected in the decline of the PMI production expectation index from 53.3 to 52.0 [3][46] Credit and Loan Data - In June, new loans to residents amounted to 597.6 billion, showing a mild improvement, primarily from operational loans rather than consumption or housing needs [3][13] - The increase in household loans was 1.17 trillion in the first half of the year, with operational loans contributing 923.9 billion [3][13] - The BCI employment outlook index was at 49.1, indicating a challenging employment environment affecting consumer loans [3][13] Social Financing and Government Bonds - The year-on-year increase in social financing expanded, mainly due to net financing from government bonds, with a total increase of 4.7 trillion in the first half of the year [4][47] - Government bond net financing contributed 4.3 trillion to the social financing increase, but the rapid improvement phase may be coming to an end [4][47] - Future social financing growth may stabilize as government bond financing levels remain high [4][47] Monetary Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China indicated that the effects of monetary policy will take time to manifest, with new policy tools expected to stimulate credit growth and stabilize the economy in the second half of the year [4][22] - The implementation of monetary policy will be adjusted based on domestic and international economic conditions [4][22] M1 and M2 Growth - In June, new credit totaled 2.24 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 110 billion, primarily from the enterprise sector [5][48] - M2 increased by 0.4 percentage points to 8.3%, while M1 rose by 2.3 percentage points to 4.6% [5][49] - The structure of deposits showed an increase in household deposits by 2.47 trillion and enterprise deposits by 1.78 trillion, while fiscal deposits decreased [5][49]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In June, China's new social financing (社融) reached 4.20 trillion yuan, exceeding the expected 3.71 trillion yuan[2] - New RMB loans amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, surpassing the forecast of 1.84 trillion yuan[2] - M2 growth year-on-year was 8.3%, slightly above the expected 8.1%[2] Group 2: Private Sector Dynamics - The willingness of the private sector (both enterprises and households) to expand balance sheets has improved, with social financing growth rising to 8.9% year-on-year[5][9] - In June, social financing increased by 900.8 billion yuan compared to the same month last year, with government contributions at 56.3% and credit contributions at 31.6%[5][9] - New loans for enterprises rebounded to historical median levels, with non-financial enterprise loans increasing by 1.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 trillion yuan[11] Group 3: Household Loan Trends - New household loans rose to 597.6 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 26.7 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating improved household willingness to expand[12] - Short-term household loans increased by 262.1 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans rose by 335.3 billion yuan, showing resilience in consumer spending[12] Group 4: Government Financing Impact - Government financing continued to dominate new social financing, with an increase of 1.35 trillion yuan in government debt financing, up 503.2 billion yuan year-on-year[17] - The "seesaw effect" between government financing and enterprise loans has weakened, leading to improved enterprise loan growth[11][20] Group 5: Monetary Indicators - Total deposits increased by 3.21 trillion yuan, with M2 growth rebounding to 8.3%[22] - M1 growth rate rose by 2.3 percentage points to 4.6%, indicating enhanced actual currency circulation[23][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the current issuance progress of interest - rate bonds in 2025, predicts the issuance rhythm in the second half of the year, and evaluates its impact. It is expected that the central bank will use various tools to maintain the stability of the capital market, and the overall impact of the issuance of special refinancing bonds on the capital market is controllable [2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Current Issuance Progress - **Treasury Bonds**: As of July 7, 2025, the cumulative net issuance of treasury bonds was 32955 billion yuan, with a progress of 53.5%, the fastest in the same period in the past five years. The issuance scale of major - term coupon - bearing treasury bonds increased year - on - year. The issuance progress of special treasury bonds exceeded half, with the first issuance peak in May [10][16]. - **Local Bonds**: The issuance rhythm of local bonds in the first half of the year was faster than that in 2024 but slower than that in 2022 - 2023. General bonds showed the characteristics of "accelerating from January to March, slow issuance from April to May, and accelerating again in the last week of June". The issuance of special bonds was relatively even, and the progress slightly exceeded that of the same period in 2024. The issuance of special refinancing bonds was concentrated in the first quarter and gradually ended in the second quarter. The issuance of special new special bonds exceeded half, with a large volume in the second quarter [23][32]. - **Policy - Financial Bonds**: Since 2020, the issuance scale of policy - financial bonds has basically remained in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan. As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative issuance of policy - financial bonds was 34968 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 58%, generally higher than the same - period level in the past five years [36]. 3.2 Issuance Rhythm in the Second Half of the Year - **Treasury Bonds**: The net issuance scale in the second half of the year remains relatively high. The issuance of ordinary treasury bonds may be more evenly distributed monthly, with a slower rhythm but a high net issuance scale. For special treasury bonds, as of July 7, 2025, there were still 10 bonds to be issued, with a remaining quota of 6220 billion yuan, and the average issuance scale per bond was about 622 billion yuan. August - September may be the peak issuance months [40][44]. - **Local Bonds**: In the case of new local bonds, two scenarios are considered. In both scenarios, the third quarter may see a supply peak. If 2 trillion yuan of debt - resolution quota for next year is advanced to this year's fourth quarter, the supply pressure in October may increase significantly, and the pressure in November - December will decrease. The issuance of policy - financial bonds is expected to maintain a balanced rhythm, with the total issuance amount remaining in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan, and the rhythm tends to be front - loaded [3][4][48]. - **Policy - Financial Bonds**: The total issuance amount is expected to remain in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan since 2020. The rhythm tends to be front - loaded, estimated by referring to the average issuance in the same period from 2020 - 2024 [72]. 3.3 Impact Assessment It is expected that the central bank will use various tools to maintain the stability of the capital market. If there is a reserve requirement ratio cut, the third quarter may be a good observation period. If not, the central bank may increase the investment of outright reverse repurchases and MLF or restart treasury bond trading operations. Referring to the situation in the fourth quarter of 2024, if special refinancing bonds are issued in advance in the fourth quarter of this year, the overall impact is expected to be controllable [5][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Policy support is in place, but domestic demand remains weak. The GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025 is expected to be achieved with relative ease [9][10]. - Fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input, while monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Additional fiscal policies may be launched under special circumstances [2]. - There are three major external disturbances in the second half of the year: tariff negotiations, the OBBB Act, and the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts [2]. - The outlook for major asset classes varies. Stocks are expected to have a bottom - line support with small - cap stocks outperforming; bond yields are expected to reach new lows; the RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate following the US dollar index; and commodities' performance will depend on event and policy rhythms [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Domestic Economy: Policy Support, Weak Domestic Demand - **Economic Overall Trend**: The economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. To counter the impact of exports, policies are targeted at consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing. In the first half, with pre - emptive policy implementation, consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing showed good growth, and the GDP growth rate in Q1 was 5.4%, with Q2 expected to be above 5%. In the second half, exports are likely to decline, and the probability of additional policies is low [9][10]. - **Consumption**: The increase in social retail sales is mainly supported by policies. After excluding the impact of the "trade - in" policy, the overall consumption has not improved significantly compared to 2024. Income expectations remain poor, and employment expectations are lower than income expectations. The consumption in Q3 is expected to maintain relatively high - speed growth, while there will be significant downward pressure in Q4 [11][16][17]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market has basically reached the bottom, and the probability of a further sharp decline in the second half is low. However, the driving force for recovery is insufficient, and it is expected to continue to operate at the bottom, with a slight upward trend under optimistic expectations [19][21]. - **Infrastructure**: Infrastructure is expected to remain at a high level. The main sources of funds are two - fold policy funds and local government special bonds. In Q3, infrastructure will still have strong support, and it may decline in Q4 but remain at a high level overall. The new policy - based financial instruments may be introduced in September or October [34][35]. - **Exports**: Exports were high in the first half but are likely to decline in the second half due to factors such as over - drawn demand and the downward risk of the US economy [37][38]. - **Manufacturing**: Manufacturing is highly dependent on policy support. With the implementation of the equipment renewal policy, most of the funds have been allocated, and manufacturing is expected to remain at a high level at least in Q3 [40]. 3.2 Policy: Limited Fiscal Policy, Increased Monetary Policy - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input. The probability of introducing incremental fiscal policies is low unless there is a significant external shock. Key meetings in the second half of the year need to be monitored [42][43]. - **Monetary Policy**: Monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Based on historical experience and the current high real - interest - rate level, it is reasonable to expect an interest rate cut of 20bp this year [44][46]. 3.3 Three Major External Disturbances in the Second Half of the Year - **Tariff Negotiation Disturbance**: The outcomes of the US tariff negotiations on July 9 and the China - US tariff negotiations on August 12 will basically determine the export trend in the second half of the year [48]. - **OBBB Act Disturbance**: The OBBB Act will have an impact on the US economy and indirectly affect the domestic economy. The Senate version of the bill will increase the US debt, and if temporary measures are made permanent, the debt increase will be even greater. The bill may lead to a steeper yield curve and higher 10 - year US Treasury yields [49][51]. - **Fed Policy Rate Changes**: The first interest rate cut is expected to occur in September or later. The number of expected interest rate cuts within the year may be slightly overestimated considering the US economic resilience and Powell's style [54]. 3.4 Outlook for Major Asset Classes in the Second Half of the Year - **Stocks**: Stocks have a bottom - line support. Although they will face fundamental pressure, the Fed's interest rate cuts and domestic monetary policy will provide support. Small - cap stocks are expected to outperform [55]. - **Bonds**: Bond yields are expected to reach new lows. The bond market will be supported by the economic trend, and with lower supply pressure and a high probability of interest rate cuts, bond yields are expected to decline [58]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index is expected to decline, and the RMB will appreciate following the US dollar index, which will help ease the pressure on export enterprises [60]. - **Commodities**: The performance of commodities will depend on event and policy rhythms. External tariff negotiations and domestic policy implementation schedules will affect commodity prices. Gold is expected to strengthen with support from the US debt issue and the approaching Fed interest rate cuts [63][64].

Core Viewpoint - Major projects are playing a stabilizing role in investment growth, with infrastructure investment expected to accelerate due to the expansion of special bond issuance and faster project implementation [1][4][9]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure construction investment growth is projected to expand to 6% for the year, continuing to support economic stability [1][10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "Two Major" construction projects for 2025, completing the annual plan of 800 billion yuan [2][5]. Project Progress and Funding - As of May, fixed asset investment in transportation reached 1.2 trillion yuan, while water conservancy investment was 408.97 billion yuan [4][6]. - The government is implementing fiscal and monetary policies to ensure sufficient funding for major projects, including the early issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds [6][7]. Economic Impact - Major projects are crucial for stabilizing economic operations, optimizing industrial structures, and enhancing public services in urban areas [4][5]. - From January to May, investment in projects with planned total investments of over 100 million yuan grew by 6.5%, outpacing overall investment growth [4][9]. Policy Support - The government is focusing on expanding effective investment through various financial tools and encouraging private investment in high-quality projects [10][11]. - New policy-oriented financial tools are being established to support infrastructure, technology innovation, and consumption [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the allocation of over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects in 2025, with a total of 800 billion yuan for the year, aimed at stabilizing economic growth and enhancing infrastructure investment [1][3]. Group 1: Investment and Project Allocation - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has arranged 800 billion yuan to support 1,459 projects in 2025, focusing on critical areas such as ecological restoration, major transportation infrastructure, and urban underground networks [3][4]. - In the first five months of the year, fixed asset investment in transportation reached 1.2 trillion yuan, while water conservancy construction investment was 408.97 billion yuan, indicating a strong push in infrastructure development [1][9]. Group 2: Policy Support and Financial Mechanisms - The government is implementing fiscal and monetary policies to ensure sufficient funding for major projects, including the early issuance of special bonds and new policy financial tools [1][10]. - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of "two heavy" projects in addressing long-standing issues that require central government intervention, focusing on areas like technological self-reliance and ecological security [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Future Outlook - Major projects are expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing economic operations, optimizing industrial structures, and enhancing public services in urban areas [5][8]. - Institutions predict that the growth rate of broad infrastructure investment could reach around 9% in 2025, continuing to support economic stability [1].