东方金诚宏观研究 10 月稳增长政策发力带动委托贷款走高，M1 增速继续处于较快增长水平 ——2025 年 10 月金融数据点评 王青 李晓峰 冯琳 事件：2025 年 11 月 13 日，央行公布的数据显示，2025 年 10 月新增人民币贷款 2200 亿，同比少增 2800 亿；10 月新增社会融资规模为 8150 亿，同比少增 5970 亿；10 月末，广义货币(M2)同比增长 8.2%， 增速较上月末低 0.2 个百分点；狭义货币(M1)同比增长 6.2%，增速较上月末低 1.0 个百分点。 基本观点： 总体上看，10 月新增贷款规模大幅走低，符合季节性规律，同比较大幅度少增主要是受新增居民贷款 大幅多减拖累。背后反映当前居民消费偏弱、房地产市场持续调整带来的影响，特别是 10 月一些地方国 补资金收紧；与此同时，三季度以来经济下行压力有所加大，10 月出口转为同比负增长，与个体经营相关 的居民短期、中长期经营贷需求也会减弱。10 月企业中长期贷款继续同比少增，除需求偏弱、隐债置换扰 动外，可能与新型政策性金融工具对企业中长期贷款的拉动效应还未充分体现有关。10 月稳增长政策发力， 主要在社融中的委 ...

Group 1 - The financial data for October shows a year-on-year increase in M1 balance of 6.2%, with new loans amounting to 220 billion and a social financing scale increase of 815 billion, while M2 balance grew by 8.2% [4] - The financial data reflects past conditions, and it is crucial to consider future changes in data. The full utilization of 500 billion new policy financial tools by policy banks is expected to drive project investments exceeding 7 trillion [5][6] - The relationship between surface and underlying data is important. The replacement of local government hidden debts with bonds and the risk management reforms in small financial institutions may slow down credit growth, but these actions are beneficial for economic stability and growth [8] Group 2 - The potential for future increases in new policy financial tools could further stimulate credit, M2, and social financing growth, indicating a more optimistic outlook for financial data [6] - The analysis of financial data should consider both the apparent figures and the underlying logic, particularly the impact of local government debt management and the risk mitigation efforts of small financial institutions [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The growth of credit, M2, and social financing in October may not be as low as it seems. Considering the 'past - future' and'surface - intrinsic' relationships, there is no need to be pessimistic about the future growth of credit, M2, and social financing [1][2]. - The use of 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments by the three policy banks is expected to drive total project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan, which will support the growth of future financial data [1]. - The new policy - based financial instruments can effectively alleviate the problem of 'lack of project capital' and leverage large - scale credit demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Understanding October's Financial Data from Two Relationships - In October 2025, M1 balance increased by 6.2% year - on - year, remaining at a relatively high level in the past three years. New loans in October were 22 billion yuan, the increment of social financing scale was 81.5 billion yuan, and M2 balance increased by 8.2% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 'Past and Future' Relationship - The financial data in October only represents the past, and more attention should be paid to future data changes. The 500 - billion - yuan quota of new policy - based financial instruments has been fully used by the end of October, which is expected to drive project investment of over 7 trillion yuan [1]. - The new policy - based financial instruments can effectively solve the problem of 'lack of project capital' and leverage large - scale credit demand. There is no need to be pessimistic about the future growth of credit, M2, and social financing [2]. 3.3 'Surface and Intrinsic' Relationship - When analyzing financial data, attention should be paid to the intrinsic logic behind the data changes. In this stage, the impact of local government debt resolution and risk mitigation of small and medium - sized financial institutions on credit should be fully restored [3]. - Local government debt resolution and risk mitigation of small and medium - sized financial institutions may drag down the apparent growth of financial aggregates, but they are beneficial to economic growth and do not mean a reduction in the support of finance to the real economy [3].

Core Insights - China Bank has approved financing support exceeding 700 billion yuan for new policy-based financial tool projects, with total disbursements surpassing 50 billion yuan [1] - Since the establishment of funds by three policy banks on September 29, China Bank has provided new loans to nearly 60 projects, enhancing financial support for key areas such as technological innovation, consumption expansion, and foreign trade stability [1] - In 2023, China Bank has actively implemented the decisions of the central government regarding the establishment of new policy-based financial tools, launching a series of measures to deepen collaboration among government, banks, and enterprises [1] Financing and Support - The cumulative financing approval amount by China Bank for new policy-based financial tools has exceeded 700 billion yuan [1] - The total amount disbursed by China Bank for these projects has surpassed 50 billion yuan [1] - The bank has focused on providing financial support to key sectors, including technology innovation and foreign trade [1] Implementation and Strategy - China Bank has quickly rolled out measures to align with the central government's directives on new policy-based financial tools [1] - The bank emphasizes early action and effective planning to ensure timely results in financial support [1] - Collaboration with various government departments and policy banks has been a priority for China Bank in executing these initiatives [1]

近日，国家发展改革委会同相关部门印发《关于进一步促进民间投资发展的若干措施》(以下简称《若 干措施》)，提出13项针对性政策举措，着眼于进一步激发民间投资活力、提升整体投资效益。11月11 日，国家发展改革委举行新闻发布会，邀请有关司局负责人对《若干措施》进行了分析和解读。 破解民间投资准入难题 国家发展改革委固定资产投资司副司长关鹏介绍，《若干措施》提出了13项政策举措，可归纳为扩大准 入、打通堵点、强化保障三个方面。 在扩大准入方面，针对民间投资面临的部分领域市场准入难问题，《若干措施》提出，对需报国家审批 (核准)的具有一定收益的铁路、核电等重点领域项目，鼓励支持民间资本参与并明确持股比例等要求； 对各地方规模较小、具有盈利空间的城市基础设施领域新建项目，鼓励民间资本参与建设运营；引导民 间资本有序参与低空经济、商业航天等领域建设，加快公布向民营企业开放的国家重大科研基础设施清 单并动态更新，积极支持有能力的民营企业牵头承担国家重大技术攻关任务。 在打通堵点方面，针对民营企业面临的权益保障、创新支撑不足问题，《若干措施》提出，加强对网络 型基础设施运行调度的监管，保障民营企业在电力并网运行、油气管网设施 ...

期货日报网讯（记者 肖佳煊）1月11日，国家发展改革委召开专题新闻发布会，介绍进一步促进民间投 资发展有关情况。国家发展改革委固定资产投资司副司长关鹏表示，民间投资是反映经济活跃程度的重 要风向标，对稳增长、稳就业、稳预期具有重要作用。 《关于进一步促进民间投资发展的若干措施》强化投资、财政、金融政策协同，统筹用好各类资金渠道 和金融服务，进一步增强促进民间投资政策的针对性和有效性，关鹏介绍，主要体现在四个方面。 第四，直接融资方面，包括2项具体内容。一是持续落实好突破关键核心技术科技型企业上市融资、并 购重组"绿色通道"政策。二是积极支持更多符合条件的民间投资项目发行基础设施REITs，进一步拓宽 民营企业融资渠道，畅通投融资循环。 与此同时，关鹏表示，国家发展改革委将在投贷联动合作机制基础上，打造国家投融资综合服务平台， 加强与全国融资信用服务等平台互联互通，进一步推动投融资高效对接，更加精准向民营企业投放信贷 资源。 第一，投资政策方面，包括2项具体内容。一是中央预算内投资。国家发展改革委将用好中央预算内投 资，对符合条件的民间投资项目予以积极支持，发挥好政府投资对社会投资的引导带动作用。二是新型 政策 ...

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has introduced measures to promote private investment, focusing on enhancing the coordination of investment, fiscal, and financial policies [1][2] - The NDRC will actively support eligible private investment projects through central budget investments, leveraging government investment to stimulate social investment [1] - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools has been fully allocated, with a portion directed towards key areas of private investment [1] Group 2 - Government procurement policies will increase support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), mandating that over 40% of the budget for engineering procurement projects exceeding 4 million yuan be reserved for SMEs [1][2] - Financial institutions are encouraged to set annual service targets for private enterprises and implement a system of credit tolerance for reasonable credit demands [2] - The NDRC aims to facilitate direct financing for private investment projects through mechanisms like REITs and a "green channel" for technology companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent policy measures introduced by the State Council to stimulate private investment in China, highlighting 13 targeted initiatives aimed at enhancing the participation of private capital in various sectors [3][4]. Group 1: Expansion of Access - The measures encourage private capital participation in key sectors such as railways and nuclear power, which have traditionally been dominated by state-owned enterprises, by setting minimum shareholding requirements [4][5]. - Private capital is now allowed to enter previously restricted areas, transforming from a "bystander" to an "active participant" in sectors with stable returns and manageable risks [5]. Group 2: Addressing Bottlenecks - The measures ensure the protection of private enterprises' legal rights in areas like electricity grid access and oil and gas pipeline usage [6]. - Support is provided for private enterprises to establish significant pilot platforms and to receive market-oriented trial services from state-owned enterprises and research institutions [6]. Group 3: Strengthening Support - Increased support for qualifying private investment projects through central budget investments and new policy financial tools is emphasized [6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has reported that 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools has been fully allocated, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan [6]. Group 4: Current Investment Trends - Recent statistics indicate a decline in private fixed asset investment, with a 3.1% year-on-year decrease in the first three quarters of the year [8]. - Despite challenges, the NDRC maintains that the long-term conditions for private investment growth remain favorable, supported by ongoing improvements in the investment environment [8][9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The NDRC plans to implement practical measures to further stimulate private investment, emphasizing the importance of regular communication with enterprises to address their concerns [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the "Several Measures to Further Promote the Development of Private Investment," which includes 13 key support measures aimed at expanding market access, promoting fair competition, strengthening resource support, and optimizing investment and financing services for private enterprises [1][5]. Group 1: Expansion of Market Access - The measures aim to broaden the investment scope for private capital, including support for private enterprises to invest in major projects such as railways and nuclear power, as well as new urban infrastructure projects and emerging sectors like low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace [5][6]. - Special feasibility studies are required for private capital participation in projects needing national approval, ensuring that private investment can be effectively integrated into traditionally state-dominated sectors [6][7]. Group 2: Removal of Hidden Barriers - The measures focus on eliminating unreasonable entry restrictions for service industry operators and prohibiting the imposition of additional conditions on private enterprises in bidding processes [8][9]. - There is a commitment to protect the legal rights of private enterprises in network infrastructure operations, ensuring fair competition and reducing transaction costs for private firms [8][9]. Group 3: Increased Policy Support - A series of initiatives are outlined to support private enterprises, including leading national major technology research tasks, increasing government procurement support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and facilitating the construction of major pilot platforms [11][12]. - The measures specify that for engineering procurement projects exceeding 4 million yuan, at least 40% of the budget should be reserved for SMEs, with encouragement for local governments to increase this proportion [12][13]. - The government plans to allocate 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools to support important industry projects, with a significant portion directed towards private investment [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a series of measures to stimulate private investment, particularly in infrastructure projects, signaling a significant policy shift to enhance the role of private capital in various sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The government has released 13 targeted policy measures aimed at promoting private investment, focusing on expanding access, addressing bottlenecks, and strengthening support [1]. - Specific measures include allowing private capital to participate in sectors traditionally dominated by state-owned enterprises, such as railways and nuclear power, with a minimum shareholding requirement of 10% [4][5]. - The measures also emphasize the need for feasibility studies to assess private capital participation in projects requiring state approval [4]. Group 2: Sectoral Focus - The policies encourage private investment in low-altitude economy infrastructure, satellite communication, and various service industries by removing unreasonable entry barriers [7]. - The government aims to enhance the participation of private capital in urban infrastructure projects, particularly in smaller cities with profit potential [4][6]. Group 3: Financial Support - The government plans to increase central budget investments in qualifying private projects and utilize new policy financial tools to support key sectors [8][9]. - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools has been allocated to support over 2,300 projects, with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy and urban renewal [9]. Group 4: Economic Impact - The measures are expected to boost private investment, which is seen as a crucial indicator of economic vitality and stability, contributing to employment and overall economic growth [9]. - The government emphasizes the importance of ongoing communication with private enterprises to address their concerns and facilitate a healthy development of the private economy [9].