12月17日，财政部公布2025年1-11月财政收支情况。从收入端来看，财政收入延续低增长态势。 前四大主体税种均保持稳定增长。 "真金白银"的前11月财政数据"出炉"，财政运行总体平稳。 财政部数据显示，今年前11个月全国非税收入约3.6万亿元，同比下降3.7%。这或许也与今年国家加强 对罚没收入监管，进一步规范涉企执法专项行动等有关。不过，前些年地方加力盘活存量资产资源收入 带来非税收入较快增长，而这一盘活空间有限，难以持续维持高增长。 广义财政收入除了全国一般公共预算收入之外，还有以卖地收入为主的政府性基金收入。 财政部数据显示，今年前11月，全国政府性基金预算收入约4万亿元，同比下降4.9%。这一降幅较前10 月有所扩大。这主要是楼市持续低迷，卖地收入降幅扩大所致。今年前11个月，地方政府性基金中的国 有土地使用权出让收入约2.9万亿元，同比下降10.7%，这一降幅较前10月扩大了3个多百分点。 尽管财政收入增幅较低，但在政府债务收入等支撑之下，今年更加积极的财政政策落地，财政支出保持 一定的力度，以推动经济运行在合理区间。 财政部数据显示，前11月，全国一般公共预算支出约24.9万亿元，同比增长1. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to stabilize investment and enhance the scale of central budget investments, while optimizing the management of local government special bonds and stimulating private investment vitality [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The focus is on combining goal-oriented and problem-oriented approaches, balancing long-term institutional construction with short-term policy adjustments to promote effective investment recovery and economic growth [1] - The importance of planning and feasibility studies for major projects is highlighted, with a call for local governments to make project planning a regular investment management practice [2] Group 2: Urbanization and Rural Revitalization - There is significant potential for investment in urbanization and rural revitalization, with a need to address the mismatch in housing supply and demand, particularly for new residents and young people [3] - Investment in infrastructure such as underground pipelines, consumer infrastructure, and urban renewal projects is encouraged to enhance living conditions and meet housing demands [3] Group 3: Agricultural Investment - Encouragement for industrial capital to invest in rural areas, supporting local financing platforms and real estate developers in agricultural and rural economic projects [4] - The integration of existing policies and new investments is expected to yield a multiplier effect on investment efficiency, with projections for investment growth to exceed 2% next year [4]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 10月15日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，今年前11个月，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）444035亿元， 同比下降2.6%，降幅比上月扩大0.9个百分点。其中，民间固定资产投资同比下降5.3%。 浙商证券首席分析师李超对《华夏时报》记者表示，投资当月同比已连续6个月转负，低于市场预期。 当前，固定资产投资连续下行的状态为多年来罕见。对此，刚刚落幕的中央经济工作会议明确，要"推 动投资止跌回稳"；全国发展和改革工作会议也要求，多措并举促进投资止跌回稳，这项工作仅次于首 位的"十五五"规划编制。 "往后看，中央经济工作会议点名推动投资止跌回升，因此对2026年投资端增速不宜过分低估。我们预 测，2026年一季度固投同比增速或达2.8%，预计广义基建和制造业投资同比增速均有望超过5.0%，带 动投资端实现开门红。"李超表示。 市场人士表示，接下来要关注财政方面增量政策的可能性，以及政策性金融工具对实物工作量的拉动。 下降趋势年内或仍持续 11月当月，狭义基建投资同比降幅继续扩大0.8个百分点至-9.7%，广义基建投资同比降幅收敛0.2个百分 点至-11.9 ...

12月12日，全国金融系统工作会议在京召开，中共中央政治局委员、中央金融委员会办公室主任何立峰 在会上强调，金融系统要深入学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神，准确把握经济工作面临的形势和主要目 标任务，坚定做好金融工作的信心和决心，坚持防风险、强监管、促高质量发展工作主线，有力有序有 效做好2026年金融重点工作。 防风险方面，要继续着力做好防范化解地方中小金融机构风险、房地产企业涉金融风险、地方政府融资 平台金融债务风险工作，严控增量、妥处存量、严防"爆雷"，严厉打击非法金融活动。 强监管方面，要进一步巩固和强化金融监管，完善重点领域监管制度体系并严格落实，持续强化金融机 构合规意识和风险意识，不断提升监管能力，严肃开展金融风险追责问责。 21世纪经济报道记者唐婧 北京报道 2026年金融重点工作主线正式明确。 促发展方面，要全力以赴推动高质量发展，继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，加强对扩大内需、科技创 新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持，稳步有序推进金融改革开放，做好预期管理。 值得注意的是，全国金融系统工作会议召开前夕，中央经济工作会议在部署 2026 年经济工作时五次提 到"金融"。会议明确，要"引导金融机构 ...

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年12月15日 宏观国债研究员：刘洋 从业资格证号： F3063825 交易咨询证号： Z0016580 联系方式： liuyang18036@greend h.com 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年12月15日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 11月消费投资低于预期 摘要 11月固定资产投资增速和社零增长均低于市场预期。11出口增速 超市场预期。11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长低于市场预期， 11月服务业生产指数同比增速较10月回落0.4个百分点。11月国内房 地产销量同比和房价继续下行，12月上旬的数据也表现如此。截至今 年10月底，5000亿元新型政策性金融工具已全部完成投放，11月的 投资数据未表现出明显改观。中美在10月末元首会晤之后，不断拉长 合作清单、压缩问题清单，相对稳定的国际环境有利于中国出口。出 口信心稳定则有利民间投资增长。 1-11月份，全国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，市场预期下降2.2 %，1-10月份为同比下降1.7%。分类来看，1-11月份广义基建投 ...

Group 1: Fixed Asset Investment - National fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, with the decline widening by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous ten months [1] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) fell by 1.1% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1.0 percentage points compared to the first ten months [2] - The central economic work conference proposed measures to "stop the decline and stabilize investment," including increasing central budget investment and optimizing local government special bond management [4] Group 2: Real Estate Investment - National real estate development investment dropped by 15.9% year-on-year from January to November, with the decline widening by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous ten months [4] - New commercial housing sales area was 78,702 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year; sales amount was 75,130 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1% [5] - The decline in real estate investment is attributed to weakened support measures and cash flow issues in the market, leading to a lack of confidence among developers [5][6] Group 3: Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment grew by 1.9% year-on-year from January to November, but the growth rate fell by 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous ten months [6] - The decline in manufacturing investment growth is influenced by external economic conditions, constraints on overcapacity industries, and reduced impact from last year's large-scale equipment updates [6] - The current downturn is seen as a necessary adjustment after years of rapid growth in manufacturing investment, with expectations of negative growth in December [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 outlines the direction for China's economic policy in 2026, emphasizing support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium enterprises [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The conference advocates for a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and using various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to stabilize economic growth and promote reasonable price recovery [2][3]. - Experts predict potential interest rate cuts of 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points and RRR cuts of up to 1 percentage point in 2026, with possible implementation in the first quarter of the year [2][3]. Financial Support for Key Areas - Financial institutions are encouraged to increase support for key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, green development, and small and medium enterprises [2][3]. - The central bank is expected to optimize structural monetary policy tools, increasing their overall quota while also lowering operational interest rates to facilitate high-quality development [3]. Real Estate Market Stability - The conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market through targeted policies, including controlling inventory and improving supply, while encouraging the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing [5][6]. - The current loan quota for "white list" real estate projects has reached 7 trillion yuan, an increase of 2 trillion yuan from the previous year, indicating a focus on supporting quality real estate enterprises [6]. Support for Financial Institutions - The conference highlights the need for reform in small and medium financial institutions, transitioning from risk management to structural optimization, which reflects a proactive approach to enhancing quality and efficiency [7]. - Experts suggest that measures should be taken to prevent a decline in quality during the reduction of small financial institutions, emphasizing the importance of optimizing the financial institution system [7].

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to "maintain domestic demand as the main driver and build a strong domestic market," with a clear directive to "promote investment stabilization" [1] - Fixed asset investment growth turned negative from September, with a further decline in October, influenced by factors such as the real estate market adjustment and declining investment returns [1][3] - A series of policies, including the issuance of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and an additional 200 billion yuan in special bonds, aim to support investment growth [1][3] Group 2 - From January to October, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 4,089.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, with private fixed asset investment down by 4.5% [3] - Real estate development investment fell by 14.7% year-on-year, significantly impacting overall investment growth, which was down by 3 percentage points due to this decline [3][4] Group 3 - Despite the slowdown in investment growth, the investment structure is optimizing, with high-tech industries experiencing rapid growth, such as aerospace manufacturing investment increasing by 19.7% and information services by 32.7% [4] - Clean energy investments, including solar, wind, nuclear, and hydropower, collectively grew by 10.4% year-on-year [4] Group 4 - The conference highlighted the importance of increasing investment to strengthen the real economy, promote technological and industrial innovation, and address regional development imbalances [5] - The "Two Heavy" projects, which focus on major national strategies and key area security capabilities, are identified as crucial for expanding effective investment [6] Group 5 - The role of new policy financial tools will continue to be emphasized, with expectations for increased fiscal spending in areas such as social security, education, and healthcare in 2026 [7] - Measures to stimulate private investment include 13 policy initiatives aimed at improving access and addressing barriers for private enterprises [8] Group 6 - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to enhance the effectiveness of policies promoting private investment, including support for technology-driven enterprises and infrastructure REITs [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in China's macroeconomic indicators due to weak domestic demand and increased external uncertainties, while suggesting that major economic indicators such as industrial production and consumption may stabilize in November due to coordinated policy efforts and resilient external demand [3][4]. Economic Indicators - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for industrial added value in November is 5.0%, slightly higher than the previous month's 4.9% [4][6]. - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods in November is 3.09%, up from 2.9% in the previous month [4][9]. - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for fixed asset investment from January to November is -2.1%, lower than the previous month's -1.7% [4][13]. Industrial Growth - Industrial added value is expected to see a slight increase, with predictions ranging from 5.0% to 5.3% year-on-year growth for November [6][7]. - The manufacturing PMI improved to 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery in market confidence, although it remains below the threshold [6][8]. Consumer Spending - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly supported consumer spending, with related sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan and benefiting over 360 million people [9]. - The "Double 11" shopping festival contributed to a 17.6% year-on-year increase in total online sales, although the average daily sales showed a decline of 6.0% compared to the previous year [10]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is under pressure, with predictions indicating a further decline in November due to reduced infrastructure spending and weak manufacturing investment [13][14]. - The introduction of new policy financial tools aims to support investment in high-tech manufacturing and digital economy sectors [14][15]. Infrastructure Investment - The expansion of infrastructure REITs is seen as a key measure for stabilizing investment, with a significant number of projects already launched [16][17]. - The government has allocated substantial funds for long-term special bonds to support major investment projects, reflecting a strategic approach to infrastructure development [15][16].

Economic Overview - China's economy is experiencing fluctuations in macroeconomic indicators due to weak domestic demand and increased external uncertainties, but there is optimism for stabilization in November with coordinated policies [1][2] - Premier Li Qiang expressed confidence in achieving economic and social development goals, highlighting industrial upgrades and large-scale market demand as key growth drivers [1] Industrial Production - The forecast for November's industrial value-added growth is 5.0%, slightly up from 4.9% in October, indicating a potential recovery in industrial production [3][4] - The manufacturing PMI improved to 49.2 in November, reflecting a slight increase in market confidence, although it remains below the growth threshold [3][4] Consumer Spending - The predicted year-on-year growth for retail sales in November is 3.09%, an increase from 2.9% in October, supported by policies encouraging consumption upgrades [5][6] - The "Double 11" shopping festival contributed to a 17.6% increase in online sales compared to last year, indicating a positive impact on consumer spending [6] Fixed Asset Investment - The forecast for fixed asset investment growth in November is -2.1%, a decline from -1.7% in October, reflecting ongoing challenges in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [8][9] - New policy financial tools have been introduced to support investments in key sectors, including digital economy and infrastructure, with a total of 500 billion yuan allocated to over 2,300 projects [9][10] Policy Measures - The government is implementing various policies to stabilize investment, including the expansion of infrastructure REITs, which aim to attract private investment into public projects [10] - Recent meetings have emphasized the importance of strategic planning and collaboration across departments to enhance investment in critical areas [10]